Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 1 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6294


R2: 1.6246


R1: 1.6186


Current spot: 1.6159


S1: 1.6135


S2: 1.6100


S3: 1.6083


Technical summary:


The correction in wave iv from 1.6446 has been deeper than initially expected. However, we still believe support at 1.6135 will be able to protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6186 and more importantly a break above resistance at 1.6246, that indicates that the correction is over and a new impulsive rally higher to 1.6445 and 1.6831 is unfolding. Even if support at 1.6135 should be broken, the downside potential should be very limited from here and support at 1.6083 would likely halt the decline.


Trading recommendation:


We are long in EUR from 1.5826 with stop placed at 1.6100. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 1.6135 with the same stop at 1.6100.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 1 - 2014

2014-10-01-EURJPY-8H.png


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 139.13


R2: 138.80


R1: 138.50


Current spot: 138.35


S1: 138.32


S2: 138.18


S3: 137.94


Technical summary:


The correction in red wave ii from 141.22 has been deeper than originally expected and has almost hit the 61.8% corrective target at 137.89 (the low has been at 137.94). However, to indicate that red wave ii is over and red wave iii is bulding, we need a break above 138.80 and more importantly, we need a break above resistance at 139.13 to confirm that red wave iii has taken over for a new rally towards 141.22 on the way higher to 143.78.


Trading recommendation:


We will move our EUR-buy order lower to 138.85 and place stop just below the low reached in red wave ii.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 1, 2014

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Overview :



  • A bearish outlook of the EUR/USD pair on the 1st of October 2014. So, according to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair has still been moving between 1.2636 and 1.2571. The prices of 1.2636 and 1.2571 will represent the ratio of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels and the double bottom respectively. It should be noted that the key level is set at the level of 1.2620. Equally important, the resistance will be formed at the area of 1.2620 / 1.2636 levels. As it is know, history will probably repeat itself at this level again. Therefore, it will be a good sign to sell below 1.2620 / 1.2636 with the first target of 1.2571 in order to retest the double bottom again. Moreover, it will call for a downtrend to continue its bearish movement towards 1.2536. On the other hand, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts, consequently the stop loss should be placed above the last bearish wave (1.2640) at the price of 1.2675.



eurusdm15.png


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#USDX Technical analysis for October 1, 2014

The Dollar index made a new higher high yesterday as expected. Trend remains bullish and as I have mentioned in previous posts, the best strategy is to follow this trend and not bet against it. The pull backs are shallow and the tremendous strength of the Dollar is crushing everyone against it. The break out above 85 as we mentioned a few days ago was very important.


usdx.jpg

The Dollar index remains in fully bullish mode according to our Ichimoku cloud indicator. Support at 85.50 was held and price is now back above our short-term target of 86. Trend remains bullish as price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. We prefer to continue to follow this trend and raise our stops rather than take profits or bet against this trend. Looking for a top and shorting this index is very dangerous as the trend is very strong.


usdxd.jpg

Red line = resistance


Blue line = support


The monthly chart above shows the important break out that occured in the Dollar index. Not only was the triangle broken but the index has also made a new higher high from 2011. This strong break out was several times noted in our past analysis. Even our modest bullish targets of 85-86 were achieved and the strength of the index remains remarkable. Yes the rise is parabolic and the pull back could be very sharp and painfull for bulls, that is why we prefer to raise our stops to 85.47 and remain long.


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Gold Wave analysis for October 1, 2014

Gold price had a very volatile session yesterday. It made a new lower low at $1,204 and then spiked up towards $1,220 and today is back down below $1,210. Selling pressures continue and do not let the precious metal push above resistance. The trend remains bearish and it is very probable to see a test of $1,180 very soon.


goldh4.jpg

Blue line = support


Green line = price channel


Gold price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and inside the downward sloping channel. Price has broken below the support and double bottom at $1,207 and is now trading marginally lower. Yesterday, the spike up towards $1,220 was short-lived and the rejection at that area confirmed that the trend remains bearish.


goldd.jpg

I continue to believe we have started wave 5 down and we should soon see a break of the lows at $1,180. I expect Gold price to move towards $1,000 as I believe we are making impulsive waves down and the corrective sideways move is over. The trend is clearly bearish and price even in the weekly chart as shown above is below the Ichimoku cloud after being rejected and confirming our bearish view.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 1, 2014

General overview for 01/10/2014 09:40 CET

The upward wave progressions developing as anticipated and the price keeps making higher highs as shown on the chart. Currently, the red cycle has not been completed yet as the market consolidates recent gains and it is getting ready to breakout to the upside again when the corrective cycle wave 4 red is completed. The target is at the level of 1.1275.


Support/Resistance:

1.1275 - WR1

1.2222 - Intraday Resistance

1.1191 - Intraday Support

1.1129 - Intraday Support

1.1098 - Weekly Pivot


Trading recommendations:

The trailing stop loss orders for all buy positions should be moved just below 1.1191 in case the corrective cycle will be more complex and deeper in retracement.The short-term bias is bullish and only buy orders should be open in this market. The target is at the level of 1.1275.


usdcad_h1.jpgThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for October 1, 2014

General overview for 01/10/2014 09:20 CET


The previous bullish impulsive count has been invalidated due to wave -1- and wave -2- overlaps. Currently, there are two possible counts with main one counting (a)(b)(c) three-wave sequence to the upside completed at the level of 141.20, and the alternative one (alt:(1), alt:(2)), that counts the possible impassive wave progression to the upside as a still possible. The recent retracement cycle has almost hit 61%Fibo at the level of 137.87 but it looks like the correction needs one more wave to the downside to complete the wave Z brown of the overall complex corrective cycle. The key level is a crucial zone to the upside, and only if this grey rectangular zone between the levels of 138.96 - 139.20 is clearly violated, bulls will regain control.


Support/Resistance:

137.12 - WS2

137.73 - WS1

137.60 - 137.87 - Important Fibo Zone

137.94 - Intraday Support

138.79 - Intraday Resistance

138.96 - Weekly Pivot

138.96 - 139.20 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

139.59 - WR1

140.20 - Technical Resistance

140.79 - WR2

141.20 - Swing High


Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider opening buy positions from the zone between 137.60 - 137.87, with SL just below the level of 137.59 and TP at the level of 139.20.


eurjpy_h1.jpg The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for October 01, 2014

USDCADWeekly.png


The pair made a highest closing on the previous week. As we are recommending to buy for the last couple of weeks with a target at 1.1145, 1.1195, and 1.1224. We are still waiting for the rest of the targets. The pair is trying to breach the March 2014 high at 1.1279, currently it is trading at 1.1214. Above this - at 1.1528 and 1.687. For the longer-term perspective, a strong breakout above 1.1230 we can see 1.1938. This view is valid with sl 1.0865. This week the pair opened with a very strong lower note. We expect the upmove to continue further. For an hourly and intraday view, the pair has support at 1.1194,1.1155, and 1.1130; below this the pair will face some selling pressure. Use a dip to add the long positions.


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Intraday trading recommendations on EUR/JPY for October 01, 2014

EURJPYDaily.png


The pair faced strong selling pressure in yesterday's session and held support at the 61.8 fib level; below this 137.70-137.50 is a strong support zone . In the previous week, the pair hit and closed below the top end of the trend line. This week, as of now the pair is facing strong resistance at 50Wsma 139.20. Safe buy will trigger only above 139.20 only. The trading pattern is framed between the 139.70-137.70 levels. If a break is below 137.50, it will fall up to 136.90 levels.


EURJPYH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are closed below key hourly moving averages. The prices are facing strong resistance in a 1-month trend line; support has become resistance. We recommend buying above 139.12 with an upside target at the 139.45 and 139.65 levels. Selling below 138.35 will mint the money.


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Intraday trading recommendations on USD/SGD for October 01, 2014

USDSGDWeekly.png


The pair gave an upside breakout from the 3-year descending trend line on the previous week. This week, the pair is showing good strength trying to breach a 14-month another trend line. The pair has the nearest resistance existed at 1.2769 61.8 fib level above this, it can extend its rally up to 1.2835-1.2838 and 1.2950 in a couple of weeks. The pair has strong support at 1.2670 below this, 1.2564 is strong support in the short-term view. Fresh buyers can buy only above the blue trend line.


USDSGDH4.png

For an intraday view, the prices are closed and trading above the 12ema and 35DEMA. The pair has support at 1.27, only below this the pair turns to bearish on an hourly basis. Sustaining above 1.2745, we can see 1.28-1.2805 today.


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Intraday trading recommendations on Gold for October 01, 2014

GOLDMonthly.png


The yellow metal drifted to a 9-month low at $1,204.10. As we entered into the Q4, the initial ticks are in green. If we look back to Q2, the metal drops $123 from the open price. In Q3 2013, the metal fell approximately $145 from the open price and $180 for the high price. The metal is making lower lows on the weekly chart for 9 weeks. On the down side, it has support at $1,200 and $1,195 below, further at $1,185-$1,180 and $1,150, maybe even $1,135 in the near term. The metal finally closes below 200MEma $1,212.50. Currently the same is acting as initial resistance. On the down side 200MSma or $1,185 will act as an intermediate support below this the bottom of the support line existed at $1,182-$1,180.


GOLDH4.png

For an intraday view, the metal prices are closed and are trading below 12ema and 35DEMA. The metal is facing strong resistance at 35DEMA. We recommend selling on every up move. Until the price trades below $1,212.50, the selling pressure still continues. On the down side, it has support at $1,206-$1,204 below these, it will extend its fall up to $1,200 and $1,295. If the metal managed to trade above $1,212, it has an intraday resistance at $1,217.50. Use every up move to sell. We have been recommending the same from the $1,270 levels.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 1, 2014

GBBPusd.jpg


Overview:


On July 15, extensive bearish impulse was initiated. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been down-trending below the depicted downtrend line.


Two bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180 and 1.6630 corresponding to the downtrend line.


The price level of 1.6140 constituted a prominent weekly support to meet the pair. Bullish rejection was witnessed in the previous visit. This led to bullish weekly closure ( above the weekly support level around 1.6250 ).


Retracement towards the price zone of 1.6350-1.6400 took place as expected where a new bearish impulse is being established applied as expected in previous articles.


This price zone corresponds to the upper limit of the depicted channels as well as Fibonacci level of the recent bearish impulse between 1.7180 and 1.6060.


Trading recommendations:


Based on the previous data, the market offered a valid SELL opportunity around 1.6460 during last week's consolidations.


This short position remains valid as long as the bears keep defending price zone of 1.6250-1.6320 ( 23.6% Fibonacci level and previous broken bottom ).Hence, Stop Loss should be located slightly above these price zone. This secures some of the profits.


Bearish targets are located around 1.6160 and 1.6080.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for October 1, 2014

gbpdaily.jpg


Since July 15, bears initiated the manifested downtrend around 1.7180. This downside movement is maintained within the depicted bearish channel.


Previous weekly bearish gap (about 150 pips) enabled bears to test 1.6058 when significant bullish recovery was manifested.


Bullish engulfing daily candlesticks were expressed during last week shooting towards 61.8% Fibonacci level located around 1.6400.


Price level of 1.6400 stands as a prominent daily resistance. This price zone corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci level as well as the upper limit of the current movement channel.


The bearish scenario was enhanced by shooting-star daily candlestick that was expressed when the pair spoke up to 1.6515.


Friday's daily closure within the channel ( below 1.6300 ) further enhanced the bearish scenario towards 1.6140 and probably towards 1.6060.


gbp4h.jpg


The GBP/USD pair has been downtrending for almost eight successive weeks. Moreover, evident bearish momentum kept pushing lower until September 9.


Bullish fixation above price level of 1.6150 and 1.6275 (neckline of the 123 reversal pattern) allowed a bullish corrective move to take place towards 1.6350 and 1.6410 ( 61.8% Fibonacci Levels ).


Technically, a valid SELL entry was suggested at retesting of price levels around 1.6410. This position is running in profits now.


Price level 1.6150 should be monitored for price action. 4H fixation below 1.6140 is essential to pursue the current bearish movement. Otherwise, a long-term ascending bottom will probably be established.


However, the bearish scenario is better enhanced by the successive lower highs being expressed on the 4H chart during the past few consolidation days. This applies continuous bearish pressure on the previously mentioned DEMAND level ( 1.6140 ).


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Daily analysis of major pairs for October 1, 2014

EUR/USD: As a result of a perpetual strength in the Greenback, this pair continues to be weak, going further south. Any rallies that happen in this market are good opportunities to sell at better prices. The pair is now trading below the resistance line at 1.2650, going towards the support line at 1.2550.


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USD/CHF: This pair would continue to go upwards as long as the EUR/USD pair goes down. The single most important reason for the stamina in this pair is the strength in the USD itself. The USD is the strongest currency among the major currencies right now, and this very pair can reach the resistance level at 0.9600, having broken the support level at 0.9550 to the upside.


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GBP/USD: There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the GBP/USD chart – the price is below the EMAs 11 and 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The price has already breached the distribution territory at 1.6200 to the downside, going towards the accumulation territory at 1.6150.


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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair continues its northward journey in a slow and steady manner. The price is currently trading above the demand level at 109.50 and it would soon break the supply level at 110.00 to the upside. Meanwhile, there is a demand level at 109.00 which could ensure that any bearish effort on the way is frustrated.


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EUR/JPY: In spite of the clear volatility in this market, the EUR/JPY pair remains weak. The ‘sell’ signal would be valid as long as the price is unable to go above the EMA 56. There is a high possibility that the price may test the demand zone at 138.00 again, for that demand zone has previously been tested.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 01, 2014

USDJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a six-year high 109.86 on Tuesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 86.218 Tuesday, last at 85.93 versus 85.62 early Tuesday) on relatively hawkish Federal Reserve's monetary policy and outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japanese importers, higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.495% versus 2.479% late Monday) and weak yen sentiment on surprise 1.5% on-month drop in Japan's August industrial production (versus forecast +0.3%) and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD sentiment is dented by the bigger-than-expected drop in Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence index to 86.0 in September from a revised 93.4 in August (versu forecast 92.8), worse-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM-Chicago PMI to 60.5 in September from 64.3 in August (versus forecast 62.0). USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japanese export sales and diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 2.07% to 16.31, S&P 500 slipped 0.28% overnight to close at 1,972.29) amid caution ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. non-farm payrolls data Friday, while pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong (crowds expected to increase Wednesday as two-day holiday starts) and lower final HSBC China September manufacturing PMI of 50.2 versus preliminary reading of 50.5 added to concerns over global economic outlook.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 110.30. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.55. The pivot point stands at 109.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.20 and the second target at 108.80.


Resistance levels:

110.30

110.55

110.85


Support levels:

109.20

108.80

108.50


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 01, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a 14-month high 0.9597 on Tuesday. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 86.218 Tuesday, last at 85.93 versus 85.62 early Tuesday) on relatively hawkish Federal Reserve's monetary policy and outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies, contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at the overbought zone, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.96 and the second target at 0.9650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9485. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9455. The pivot point is at 0.9530.


Resistance levels:

0.96

0.9650

0.9685



Support levels:


0.9485

0.9455

0.9415


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 01, 2014

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. NZD/USD is supported by Kiwi demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But NZD/USD gains are tempered by the positive dollar sentiment, waning investor risk appetite and threat of the central bank intervened to weaken the NZD. It is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 86.218 Tuesday, last at 85.93 versus 85.62 early Tuesday) on relatively hawkish Federal Reserve's monetary policy and outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages falling, although inside-day-range pattern was completed on Tuesday.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7730. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.77. The pivot point stands at 0.7830. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7910 and the second target at 0.7955.


Resistance levels:

0.7910

0.7955

0.8035


Support levels:

0.7730

0.77

0.7675


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 01, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to resume a bullish bias. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japanese importers and buoyant USD/JPY undertone and surprise 0.2% on-month drop in U.K. Nationwide September house price index (versus forecast +0.5%). Besides, the currency pair is also tempered by the sterling demand on soft EUR/GBP cross and expectations of rate increase from Bank of England in early 2015. Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day MA and is declining.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 178.45 and the second target at 179.15. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 175.80. The pivot point is at 177.35.


Resistance levels:

178.45

179.15

179.90

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.30


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 01, 2014

!EURUSD.jpg When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, and German 10-y Bond Auction. The US will release the economic data too such as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Crude Oil Inventories, Total Vehicle Sales, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2690.

Strong Resistance:1.2682.

Original Resistance: 1.2670.

Inner Sell Area: 1.2658.

Target Inner Area: 1.2628.

Inner Buy Area: 1.2598.

Original Support: 1.2586.

Strong Support: 1.2574.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.2566.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 01, 2014

!USDJPY.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Tankan Manufacturing Index, Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index, and Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will publish some economic data such as ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Crude Oil Inventories, Total Vehicle Sales. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 110.39.

Resistance. 2: 110.17.

Resistance. 1: 109.96.

Support. 1: 109.69.

Support. 2: 109.48.

Support. 3: 109.26.


Best regards,


Arief Makmur


Official Analyst of InstaForexGroup


InstaForex Group


http://instaforex.com


email: Arief.jakarta@indo.instaforex.com


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for October 01, 2014

On the daily chart, you can see that the USDX has finally hit the resistance level of 86.20, because the USDX has been very strong in the bullish trend due to the strong impulses that the instrument has been getting after the publication of several economic indicators in the United States. The USDX could begin to form a higher high pattern for a breakout at the resistance level of 86.20 and advance to the next target at the 87.35 level. However, the USDX could begin to enter a phase of consolidation.


USDXDaily.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 86.20 – 87.35


Daily chart's support levels: 85.18 – 84.29


On the H1 chart, we can see a rather peculiar situation for the USDX, because this instrument found support at the same level for several consecutive hours in yesterday's session. This level is located at 85.62, where the USDX performed a rebound thanks to the force exerted by the bulls. The USDX is still holding above the 200 SMA.


1412117925_USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 85.95 – 86.17


H1 chart's support levels: 85.73 – 85.49


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 85.95 take profit is at 86.17, and stop loss is at 85.73.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 01, 2014

On the daily chart, the GBP/USD pair has made a pullback at the resistance level of 1.6235, as this pair is pretty weak below the 200-day moving average, after filling the bullish gap some days ago. Now, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound near the support level of 1.6146, so probably GBP/USD starts forming a bearish pattern. Keep in mind also that the resistance level of 1.6447 is quite strong.


1412117833_GBPUSDDaily.png


Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.6235 - 1.6326


Daily chart's support levels: 1.6146 - 1.6046


We can see that in the H1 chart, GBP/USD had a significant fall pinch under the 1.6216 level. So, that the GBP/USD pair is trying to form a lower low pattern. If this pair manages to consolidate above the level of 1.6216, the next target upside would be the resistance level of 1.6252, while the weak still present is maintained in GBP/USD, because the SMA 200 is maintained at the level of 1.6290. The MACD indicator is moving into the positive territory, which could strengthen the bullish bias.


1412117843_GBPUSDH1.png


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6252 – 1.6216


H1 chart's support levels: 1.6170 – 1.6117


Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.6170, take profit is at 1.6117, and stop loss is at 1.6223.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sep 30, 2014

USDJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate after hitting a six-year high at 109.75 on Monday. USD/JPY is undermined by the unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 7.61% to 15.98, S&P 500 slipped 0.25% overnight to close at 1,977.8) as pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong added to concerns over global economic outlook, while caution prevail ahead of the European Central bank's interest rate decision Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data Friday. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change); Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY is downside limited by ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and demand from Japan importers and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative out performance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies and stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0), as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 110. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 110.30. The pivot point stands at 109.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.05 and the second target at 108.80.


Resistance levels:

110

110.30

110.45


Support levels:

109.05

108.80

108.50


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Sep 30, 2014

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a 14-month high 0.9532 on Monday. It is supported by the positive USD sentiment, contagion from weak EUR on CHF and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy. USD/CHF is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.479% versus% 2.535 late Friday), surprise 1.0% on-month drop in U.S. pending home sales index to 104.7 in August (versus forecast for no change), positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit four-year-high 85.798 Monday, last at 85.601) on relative outperformance of the U.S. economy versus other major economies; stronger-than-expected rise in Dallas Fed Business Activity Index to 10.8 in September from 7.1 in August (versus forecast 9.0); as-expected 0.5% on-month increase in U.S. August consumer spending and 0.3% rise in personal income.


Technical Comments:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought zone; five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9620 and the second target at 0.9650. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9485. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9455. The pivot point is at 0.9530.


Resistance levels:

0.9620

0.9650

0.9685



Support levels:


0.9485

0.9455

0.9415


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Sep 30, 2014

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with a bearish bias after hitting a 13-month low 0.7707 on Monday. Kiwi is hurt after Reserve Bank of New Zealand revealed it has sold a net NZ$521 million in August versus just NZ$2 million in July, suggesting that the central bank had intervened to weaken the currency and Prime Minister John Key was reported as signaling that US$0.6500 would be a fair value for the Kiwi. NZD/USD is also weighed by the positive dollar sentiment and waning investor risk appetite; Kiwi sales on cross trades versus major currencies.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is negative-biased as MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7730. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.77. The pivot point stands at 0.7830. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7910 and the second target at 0.7955.


Resistance levels:

0.7910

0.7955

0.8035


Support levels:

0.7730

0.77

0.7675


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Sep 30, 2014

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental Overview:


GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a range. It is undermined by the weak EUR sentiment, reduced investor risk appetite; worse-than-expected drop in U.K. GfK consumer confidence index to -1.0 in September from +1.0 in August (versus forecast of 0.0). and Japanese export sales. But GBP/JPY downside move is limited by the demand from Japanese importers and buoyant USD/JPY undertone and by the sterling demand on buoyant GBP/NZD cross as well as expectations of rate increase from Bank of England in early 2015.


Technical Comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and stochastics are bearish.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 176.75. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 175.80. The pivot point stands at 178.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will moves above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.15 and the second target at 179.90.


Resistance levels:

179.15

179.90

180.35

Support levels:

176.75

175.80

175.30


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com