Daily analysis of USD/JPY for November 21, 2017

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Overview

The USD/JPY pair showed some rise yesterday to approach the key resistance 113.00, noticing that stochastic shows clear overbought signals now. Besides overlapping negatively on the four-hours time frame, which forms a negative motive that we are waiting to assist to push the price to break 111.90 level and open the way to extend the correctional bearish wave towards 111.00. Therefore, we still suggest the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions on the grounds of the negative pressure formed by the EMA50. Please note that breaching 113.00 – 113.25 levels will stop the expected decline and push the price to regain its main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 111.50 support and 113.25 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for November 21, 2017

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Overview

The GBP/JPY pair confirmed the bullish trend by forming a new bullish wave to move away from the support at 147.35. The price gains momentum from the stability of the moving average 55 near the current support, which increases the possibility of renewing the bullish attack. The first upward target could be 150.00, then we should wait for the next target at 151.50. Stochastic's form to a bullish rally above 50 level reinforces the bullish bias domination, opening the way towards extra momentum that confirms the attempt of recording the mentioned targets. The expected trading range for today is between 148.40 and 150.00

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Daily analysis of Gold for November 21, 2017

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Overview

Gold price begins the attempts to surpass 1,281.17 level now, encouraged by stochastic's positivity that is displayed on the four-hour time frame. Please note that breaching the mentioned level will push the price towards 1,299.20 directly. In general, the bullish trend will remain active for today on condition of holding above 1,272.00. Breaching the targeted level will push the price towards 1,321.50 as the next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 1,272.00 support and 1,295.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for November 20, 2017

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Overview

Silver price is again fluctuating around the EMA50, after testing 17.43 level in the previous sessions. The metal needs to gain strong momentum to encourage the chances of breaching the mentioned level to confirm a further bullish wave towards 18.30 that represents our next main target. In general, we keep our positive overview for the short term unless breaking 16.56 level and holding below it, as breaking this level will nudge the price to visit 15.49 areas before any new attempt to rise. The expected trading range for today is between 16.75 support and 17.20 resistance.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 21, 2017

After an impulsive bullish move, the price has remained above $8,200 area, aiming for a retracement which was observed in the market recently. Bitcoin has shown some sharp bearish pressure recently which made the price fall towards $7,700 price level but as usual the price has regained the bullish momentum after bouncing off the Kumo Cloud support area and is currently residing above $8,200 price area. There are many talks about launching Bitcoin Options which can be labelled as rumors. However, if the event occurs Bitcoin is expected to gain more impulsive bullish momentum in the coming days. As of the current scenario, price is expected to correct itself a bit between the range of $8,000-$8,250 before breaking above it and making an impulsive move with target towards $9,000. As the price remains above the Kumo Cloud support and $7,500, the bullish bias is set to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 21, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $8,234. Just recently, Alibaba founder Jack Ma said that he doesn't have much interest in bitcoin. In a new series, the CEOs of Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba, Jingdong Mall (JD) and 58.com shared their insights on bitcoin and the blockchain technology. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time - frame, I found the resistance cluster at the price of $8,257 on the test. The trend is bullish but wait for a potential breakout of resistance to confirm a further upward continuation. If the price breaks the level of $8,257, watch for buying opportunities. The upawrd target is set at the price of $8,700. Anyway, if you see rejection from resistance, the testing of $7,762 might come to play.

Support/Resistance

$8.257 – Key resistance

$7.762 – Reaction low

$8.700 – Upward objective target

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Global macro overview for 21/11/2017

Chairperson Janet Yellen announced yesterday that she would not stay on the Fed board after handing over to Jerome Powell. The decision to shorten the term of office (originally until 2024) was predictable - it was difficult to be number 2 if it was number 1. President Trump then holds another seat on the board from the fill, raising their number to four (out of seven). The names are to be announced before the end of the year, and among the potential candidates is still the race loses president John Taylor. As a result, the Fed's board may eventually be hijacked (as Powell is treated as neutral) by hawks. Besides, the rotation of voting rights at the FOMC meetings among regional governors in 2018 gives the hawkish authorities. However, it is doubtful that the USD was quick to count on a positive impulse. The market tends to play the Fed's policy from meeting to meeting. Almost a certain rate hike in December is fully discounted. Another wave of dollar appreciation under the influence of monetary policy will appear only when the Fed gives a clear signal that another rate hike in March 2018 is likely. Until then, fiscal and macroeconomic policies remain above the hierarchy of factors.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the black trend line at the level of 112.15, but no new high was made yet and the price is back inside the downward channel zone. The momentum is not accelerating upward, but the market conditions favor the dip buyers.

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Global macro overview for 21/11/2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBZ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were published overnight, but no major surprises were found out. However, the general tone of the minutes seems somewhat more subdued than investors have seen in recent reports. The RBA still expects the inflation to increase, but the pace is described as "only gradually". This is consistent with the revised forecasts for underlying inflation for 2018 and 2019. In August, the regulator's forecast for underlying inflation was at 2.0% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019 (mid-points of the range). The forecast has been downgraded to 1.75% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019.This downward revision in consumer inflation is attributed to the reweighting of the CPI by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Another RBA concern is about weak wages growth, "various measures of growth in wages had not yet picked up and had been lower in preceding quarters than forecast a year earlier". Some recognition that part of this explanation might be structural is given, "the possibility that globalization and technology were leading wage growth to be less responsive to changes in the demand for labour". This was noted as a global theme and may explain partly the decision to slow down the pace of the expected pick-up in inflation.

RBA President Phillip Lowe started the press conference with positive surprise as he stated that it is more likely that the bank's next decision will be to raise interest rates. However, he added that there are currently no strong arguments for a rapid change in monetary policy. Continuation of accommodative policy is an appropriate approach.

In conclusion, the RBA is still concerned about low wages and a lack of the inflationary pressures, which means the interest rates might not be on the table again until the beginning of the next year, despite the brave and surprising statements from Lowe.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After Lowe surprising statement the bulls have managed to break out from the channel and rally towards the nearest technical resistance at the level of 0.757, but the enthusiasm might be short-lived as the key to the upside is still the resistance at the level of 0.7625. Please notice the deeply oversold market conditions might help to lift the price towards the resistance.

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EUR/USD analysis for November 21, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1713. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1722, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1754 (pivot), 1.1785 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 1.1839 (extreme target, pivot resistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1785

R2: 1.1839

R3: 1.1873

Support levels:

S1: 1.1700

S2: 1.1668

S3: 1.1613

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 21, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound from 111.90 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, a bullish cross between 20-period and 50-period moving average has been identified. The relative strength index is bullish, calling for a further upside.

Hence, above 112.20, look for a new challenge with targets at 112.75 and 113.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended below 112.20 with a target at 111.90.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.20, Take Profit: 112.75

Resistance levels: 112.75, 113.00 and 113.45 Support Levels: 111.90, 111.60, 111.15

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 21, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9900. The pair posted a strong rebound yesterday, and is now challenging its nearest resistance at 0.9945. The 20-period moving average is heading upward, acting as a strong support. Besides, the relative strength index advocates for a further advance.

Anyway, as long as 0.9900 is not broken, look for a new bounce to 0.9960 and 0.9980 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9900, Take Profit: 0.9960

Resistance levels: 0.9960, 0.9980, and 1.0015

Support levels: 0.9850, 0.9830, and 0.9800

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GBP/USD analysis for November 21, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downward. The price tested the level of 1.3209. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.3222, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found that price went above the pivot level (1.3233), which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3280 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 1.3325 (pivot resistance 2).

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3280

R2: 1.3325

R3: 1.3374

Support levels:

S1: 1.3185

S2: 1.3140

S3: 1.3090

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 21, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair formed an intraday "V-bottom" pattern, and now stands above its 50-period moving average, which is turning up. The relative strength index has broken above a falling trend line and calls for further advance. In addition, a strong support base at 148.40 has formed and has allowed for a stabilization.

To sum up, above 148.40, look for further advance to 149.45 and 149.80 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 148.40 with the target at 149.45.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 148.40, Take Profit: 149.45

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 149.45, 149.80 and 150.35

Support levels: 148.00, 147.60, and 147.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 21, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 0.6780. The pair stands firmly above its horizontal support at 0.6780, which has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The relative strength index is mixed, but lacks downward momentum. Therefore, even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited.

As long as 0.6780 is not broken, likely advance to 0.6840 and 0.6860 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6840, 0.6860, and 0.6900

Support levels: 0.6755, 0.6730, and 0.6695

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 21, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF faces a minor resistance at the level of 0.9910, while the strong resistance is seen at 0.9966. Support levels are found at the 0.9870 and 0.9782. Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from 0.9910. The pair could fall from 0.9910 level to the first support around 0.9870. In consequence, if the USD/CHF pair breaks support at 0.9870, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.9910 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.9910 level towards the target at 0.9870. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.9870 level, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.9870 level in order to reach the second target at 0.9782. On the other hand, the 0.9782 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.9782 as long as this level is not breached. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.9870.
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 21, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair (Kiwi) has hit the new low at the level of 0.6779. Today, the NZD/USD pair probably will continue to move downwards from the level of 0.6800. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6800 to the bottom around 0.6779. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6800 followed by 0.6943, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.6779. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.6800 and 0.6703; for that we expect a range of 97 pips (0.6800 - 0.6703). If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.6800, the market will decline further to 0.6779 again. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.6703 with a view to test the daily pivot point. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.6943 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.
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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for November 21, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently since the recent Rate Hike which put the market into an indecisive phase. GBP has been going through lots of ups and downs due to political unrest in the UK and some economic issues which has confused the market sentiment which resulted in indecision and corrections. Today, UK Public Sector Net Borrowings report was published with an increased figure of 7.5B from the previous figure of 4.4B which exceeded the expectation limit of 6.6B. As the Net Borrowing report increase was negative, the British currency has already started to show some weaknesses. Additionally, UK inflation report is due later today which is expected to be quite neutral in nature and CBI Industrial Orders Expectation report is expected to have a positive result of 3 increasing from the previous negative figure of -2. On the USD side, today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.42M from the previous figure of 5.39M. Moreover, this week the FOMC meeting is going to take place which is expected to have a positive impact for USD gains amid a highly possible rate hike decision in December. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to gain further momentum over GBP in the future amid better economic reports. Ahead of the US Fed rate hike, every economic event in the US is expected to put pressure on GBP and help with USD gains.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing at the edge of resistance area of 1.3300 from where the price is expected to push lower. The price has formed a Wedge structure which is expected to break on the downside with a vision of creating new lows in the coming days. Currently the price is expected to proceed down towards 1.31 support area and if the price breaks it with a daily close then later the price is expected to proceed further down towards 1.2800 support area. As the price remains below 1.3300 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Bitcoin analysis for 21/11/2017

Blockchain revolutionizes the world in many ways, starting with banking and finance, through the transport and distribution of goods and services to Sci-Fi visions. Speaking here mainly about the internet things. First of all, let's take a look at the lock in the public locker room and the armband, between which a smart agreement can be made, allowing the user to use the locker room and pay in real time. This usage case describes how Blockchain would release this simple operation by releasing it from centralized databases containing client entry, rental time, security, lock, etc. However, they are currently working on something much bigger.

Uber is working with NASA and several aerospace companies to launch a flying car project. Volvo's parent company designs futuristic vehicles that can fill the sky in two years. The Uber Elevate project implements Blockchain technology for vertical takeoff and China plans to start selling 2019 flying cars.

It's all about air taxis, which, thanks to the Blockchain platform, enable the entire ecosystem of vehicles, charging stations, parking and customer service to run smoothly and seamlessly. There is already a solid infrastructure needed to implement flying cars. Roofs in large metropolitan areas are equipped with functional helicopter airports, which are very rarely used at the moment. Big cities like Tokyo, Seoul and Los Angeles boast over 70 landings. Regarding the legislation, Dubai, Singapore and other modern governments ready to accept small commercial aircraft will be an important example for regulating air traffic that will inevitably have to match the market expectations.

In addition, the urban air transport market is estimated at $1.2 billion, which should suffice for rapid advances in air transport technology. Blockchain as a platform allows you to order an air taxi and pay in Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. Each time a transaction is made, an intelligent agreement is signed that stores service delivery information, payments and vehicle load. This is an excellent example of how future transport can absorb the best available technology.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The projected target for the wave -v- at the level of $8,365 has not been hit yet, but the recent developments might indicate the top for this wave might be in place already. Any violation of the level of $7,423 (weekly pivot point) will be treated as the first confirmation of the temporary top. The key support for the price remains at the level of $6,768.

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Trading plan for 21/11/2017

Overnight the financial markets have gone quiet if not boring. Weakest, albeit on a limited scale, were AUD and NZD, mostly due to dovish sounding RBA minutes release. EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1740, USD/JPY around 112.55 and GBP/USD – 1.3250. The stock market is trading at a rebound after yesterday's dismal session. Gold grows, oil is standing.

On Tuesday 21st of November, the event calendar is light in important economic data releases. The busiest part will be the UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data release and Inflation Report Hearings with plenty of MPC members speaking. During the US session, Canada will post Wholesale Sales data and US will post Existing Home Sales data.

GBP/USD analysis for 21/11/2017:

The main event of the day will be about politics again as the BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe and other MPC members (Ian McCafferty, Gertjan Vlieghe and Michael Saunders) will give speeches today. The main theme of the speeches should be further BoE monetary policy and UK economic assessment, so it will be worth to keep an eye on British Pound related pairs as the volatility might increase.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trapped in a horizontal zone between the levels of 1.3040 - 1.3321 and as long as any of this levels is violated the sideways move will continue. The dashed black trendline indicates the bulls are now in charge of the market, at least in the short-term, but any unfavorable comments from MPC members will likely terminate these developments.

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Market Snapshot: Gold falls down again

After a failure to rally at the level of $1,290, the price of Gold dropped to the lower channel line support at the level of $1,274, so the sideways move inside the channel is continuing. Nevertheless, since the end of October, no new low was made yet as the market still tries to rally higher. The key to the upside remains the gray zone between the levels of $1,298-$1,305.

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Market Snapshot: Head & Shoulder pattern in progress on DAX?

The German DAX Index has made a local low after a drop from the high of 13,515. The bounce from the local low has returned to the previous consolidation area and now it looks like the market is making the Head & Shoulders technical price pattern. The neck line is marked in orange and the target for bears is around the level of 12, 386.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 21, 2017

The Dollar index is making new short-term higher highs but price remains below the cloud. Trend remains bearish in the medium-term. There are still chances that the entire decline from 95 is not over and we could see a move towards 93-92.50.

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Blue line - trend line support (broken)

Green rectangle - support

Red rectangle - target if support fails

The Dollar index stopped the decline at the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price is below the 4-hour Kumo, so we consider short-term trend still bearish. Resistance is at 94.30-94.50. Breaking above it will open the way for a move towards 97 or higher. Support at 93.60-93.50 is also important. A break below it will open the way for a move towards the red rectangle area.

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In the daily chart price holds above the daily tenkan-sen. The pull back from 95 could be over or we might need one more new low before moving towards the daily Kumo (cloud) near 97. I believe that it is more probable to see a new leg upwards than consider the entire bounce over.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 21, 2017

Gold price as expected got rejected at the upper trading range boundary and fell back towards cloud support. Short-term support at $1,277 was broken but not the important $1,272 one. Trend remains neutral. Gold price could continue lower towards $1,272 and as long as it closes above it, we could see $1,300.

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Blue lines - trading range

Gold price is moving inside a trading range with a positive slope. However the entire price formation is corrective and not impulsive, implying that eventually we should expect price break below support and make a new low towards $1,250-$1,210 area.

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Blue line- long-term support

Magenta line- long-term resistance

Green rectangle - short-term target area for major reversal

Gold price got rejected at the daily Kumo (cloud) yesterday and price fell below the tenkan-sen. This is a bearish sign. As long as price is above short-term important $1,272 support, we could even see a bounce towards $1,300 or at least a test of the daily cloud at $1,291. However if price breaks support, we should expect a sharp move towards $1,250.

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Trading plan 11/21/2017

Trading plan 11/21/2017

EURUSD: Trade for a breakout range.

German Chancellor Merkel cannot form a majority in the parliament - this stopped the growth of the euro.

At the same time, there was no sharp fall: "Germany's economy is currently very strong and is ready to grow, the political crisis will not affect the economy - the fall of the euro will be limited.

Conclusion: the euro must be traded for the movement.

Therefore, we trade for a breakthrough:

Sell with a breakout downwards from 1.1720.

Buy at the breakthrough to the top of 1.1825.

Stop-loss position is set at 45 p. Take-profit of 100 pp. (points in 4 characters, for example: from 1.1700 to 1.1800 - 100 points).

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 21, 2017

USD/JPY is currently trading inside the corrective range of 111.60 to 113.00 where the market is currently following a bearish bias. JPY has been dominating over USD for last few days. The pair is expected to be indecisive in the coming days as the market sentiment is currently quite USD biased amid the likelihood for the rate hike decision in December. This week, FOMC Meeting is due which is also expected to help in the gains of the USD against all the currencies in the market, whereas the JPY gains might get some interruptions along the way. Today, Japan's All Industry Activity report was published with a negative value of -0.5% decreasing from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.4%. The worse-than-expected economic report did not affect JPY's growth and the bearish bias is still intact. On the other hand, today US Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.42M from the previous figure of 5.39M. If the economic report comes better than expected, then we might see some spikes in the market today which might lead to gains on the USD side. As of the current scenario, JPY is likely to gain some momentum in short term as worse economic report could not stop its gains. So any positive economic report from the US will have an impact on JPY gains which may change the current bias in the market. The market is still quite indecisive and any strong economic outcome on either side will have its upcoming directional move.

Now let us have a look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure, bouncing off the dynamic level of 20 EMA below the horizontal resistance of 113.00. This area has been quite corrective. The volatile phase of price action earlier is expected to continue its history as well in the coming days. The price is projected to proceed down towards 111.60 support area before it bounces off the level with a bullish pressure towards 113.00 and later towards 114.50 resistance area in the coming days. The 111.60 level has been quite strong earlier, showing some bullish pressure off the level which is expected to hold the price this time as well.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 21, 2017

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Wave summary:

The most likely scenario remains, that wave i completed with the test of 1.7408 and wave ii lower to 1.6619 now is developing. Short-term a break below minor support at 1.7209 and more importantly a break below support at 1.7157 is needed to confirm that wave i has peaked and wave ii lower is developing.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6770 and we will move our stop + revers higher to 1.7200 and we will place our take-profit + reverse at 173.25 - if this order is done our new stop will be placed at 174.15.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 21, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for more downside pressure in wave (E) of the huge triangle consolidation. The ideal downside target for wave (E) is seen near 123.43.

Short-term, we expect minor resistance near 132.60 to be able to cap the upside for renewed downside pressure through support at 131.14 confirming the expected decline towards 128.91 on the way lower to 123.43.

R3: 133.13

R2: 132.75

R1: 132.32

Pivot: 131.80

S1: 131.14

S2: 130.81

S3: 130.39

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 133.10 with our stop placed at break-even

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Daily analysis of major pairs for November 21, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair made an invalid bearish effort last week – while the recent bullish bias remains valid. The price could be seen going upwards this week. There are support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650, which would try to impede any bearish attempts along the way.

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USD/CHF: In the last few trading days, the price has been characterized by short-term upswings and downswings. Some visible bullish effort has been seen so far this week, but there would not be a bullish signal in the market until the resistance level at 1.0000 is breached to the upside. That would not be an easy thing to achieve.

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GBP/USD: A short-term bullish signal has been generated on this market. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which is supposed to be more conspicuous as price journeys further northwards. The next targets for bulls could be the distribution territories at 1.3250 and 1.3300.

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USD/JPY: Within a context of a short-term downtrend, the USD/JPY bounced upwards after testing the demand level at 112.00. The upwards bounce could turn out to be an opportunity to sell short at a better price, except the supply level at 113.50 is breached to the upside (which would require strong bullish pressure).

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EUR/JPY: Within a context of a short-term downtrend, the EUR/JPY bounced upwards after testing the demand zone at 131.50. The upwards bounce could turn out to be an opportunity to sell short at a better price, except the supply zone at 133.50 is breached to the upside (which would require strong bullish pressure).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 21, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 (Intraday Key-level).

Trade recommendations:

If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 21, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, the evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

The bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, a significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied to the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Trade Recommendations

Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

On the other hand, recent price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained. (Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Wednesday).

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USD/JPY testing major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is now testing major resistance at 112.69 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect to see a strong drop from this level towards 112.00 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (21,3,1) is seeing strong resistance below 97% where we expect a corresponding drop from.

Sell below 112.69. Stop loss is at 113.19. Take profit is at 112.00

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USD/CHF back up to test major resistance once again, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up to our selling area once again and we look to remain bearish and sell on strength below 0.9935 resistance (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, pullback resistance) for a strong push down to at least 0.9847 support (head and shoulders exit potential, swing low support, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,3,1) is seeing major resistance below 96% where we expect a strong reaction from.

Sell below 0.9935. Stop loss is at 0.9990. Take profit is at 0.9847.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Nov 21, 2017

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There is no Economic Data will be released when the European market opens, but the US will release the Economic Data, such as Existing Home Sales, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1801.

Strong Resistance:1.1794.

Original Resistance: 1.1782.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1770.

Target Inner Area: 1.1742.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1715.

Original Support: 1.1703.

Strong Support: 1.1691.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1684.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Nov 21, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Existing Home Sales. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.20.

Resistance. 2: 112.98.

Resistance. 1: 112.76.

Support. 1: 112.48.

Support. 2: 112.26.

Support. 3: 112.04.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of USDX for November 21, 2017

The index is moving inside a range and capped by the 200 SMA. Also, price action remains supported by the 93.55 level, where bulls are trying to push higher the US Dollar index in order to consolidate above the moving average. If a breakout happens over there, we can expect a rally towards the 94.60 level. MACD indicator is still in favor of the bears.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.98 / 94.60

H1 chart's support levels: 93.55 / 93.12

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 93.55, take profit is at 93.12 and stop loss is at 93.97.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for November 21, 2017

The pair is doing a consolidation above the 200 SMA and it's testing the upper Bollinger band across the board. Next target to the upside is placed at the 1.3309 level, at which we can expect further selling pressure in order to re-test the 200 SMA at H1 chart. If that resistance gives up, the next hurdle to overcome lies at 1.3360.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3309 / 1.3360

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3143 / 1.3037

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3309, take profit is at 1.3360 and stop loss is at 1.3256.

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BITCOIN Analysis for November 20, 2017

Bitcoin is currently residing at the record high price of all time which is above $8,200. The price is quite impulsive in nature which is expected to push the price higher towards $9,000 price area soon. Bitcoin has gone through many ups and downs before making this record high but as the Cryptocurrency gained momentum after every drawback it has gone much strong with the gains. The market sentiment is currently quite in favor of Bitcoin despite the external influences which caused the fallbacks earlier. As of the current market scenario, the price has broken above the $8,000 price area with an impulsive push but did not quite retrace back to the area before pushing higher. So, in this case, the price is currently expected to have some pullback towards $8,000 price area before it pushes higher with the target towards $9,000 price level in the coming days. As the price remains above the Kumo Cloud and $7,500 price area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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The yen hit the politics network

The Japanese yen was optimistic about the information regarding the inability of Angela Merkel to form a coalition in Germany. The risks of repeated parliamentary elections or minority governments increased the market uncertainty and hiked the demand for safe haven assets. As a result, the USD / JPY pair confidently moved to a 1.5-month low, the upgrade of which will increase the risk of continuing the downward trend.

After the fall of last year, the Bank of Japan switched to targeting the yield curve. No one is surprised that the yen began to react solely to external factors. The USD / JPY correlation with the yield of US Treasury bonds is great. Meanwhile, the BoJ's internal statistics and desire to adhere to ultra-soft monetary policy have been increasingly ignored by investors. In my opinion, this is not entirely true. These "bearish" factors for the "Japanese yen" make it possible to smooth out its strengthening.

The inability of Republicans to carry out the tax reform through the US Congress in 2017 as well as the increased political risks in the euro area, may lead to a drop in quotations of the analyzed pair in the direction of 108. At the same time, the gradual deterioration of the situation in Japan itself will be an additional catalyst for the flight from risk. The GDP growth for seven consecutive quarters was associated with positive results from net exports. However, the first signs of a deterioration in the situation in foreign trade was found in October's data. Supplies from Japan grew for 11 months in a row but they do not reach the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts and are late for imports.

Dynamics of Japan's imports and exports

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Source: Bloomberg.

If domestic demand is the main driver of the recovery of the euro-zone economy, Japan is growing at the expense of external demand. And if net exports begin to flounder, the credibility of Abenomics against the backdrop of GDP slowdown will melt before our eyes. This will increase the risks of BoJ's departure from its soft monetary policy and will strengthen the yen. However, the October failure of foreign trade may turn out to be the usual market noise.

In any case, the main driver of the future dynamics of USD / JPY is the tax reform. Voting on the project in the Senate will be held on the following week after the Thanksgiving. The slightest negative, in the form of the emergence of new dissenting Republicans, will help strengthen reliable assets. Pressure on the dollar can create a publication of the protocol of the October meeting of the ECB. The tabloids say that there are at least four people who disagree with the QE extension policy without setting a deadline for the program. The split in the ranks of the Governing Council is a bullish factor for the euro and the growth of the EUR / USD will affect other instruments of the foreign exchange market.

Technically, the future of the USD / JPY pair will depend on the ability of the "bears" to update the October low near 111.6. There is also the upper limit of the previous downward trading channel. Returning quotes to its limits and activating the mother pattern "Shark" will increase the risk of continuing the peak in the direction of 108. On the contrary, the release will create the preconditions for a gradual recovery of the "bullish" trend.

USD / JPY, daily chart

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Trading plan 20.11 - 24.11.2017

Trading plan 20.11 - 24.11.2017

The overall picture: Merkel's problems with the government caused the euro to decline.

Unexpected news came out on Sunday: Merkel could not form a majority in the parliament (failed to create a ruling coalition) - and now, most likely, there will be new elections. Merkel's problem arose with the Free Democrats, who did not support the migration policy of Merkel.

This is the first case in 70 years, when Germany failed to create a ruling majority, and, perhaps, there will be an early parliamentary election.

Euro fell to 1.1725.

EURUSD: the growth in the pair stopped, the range.

There are good chances of earning a breakout range: buying for a breakout towards the high of 1.1860, selling down a breakthrough of 1.1550.

It is very likely that there will be a new level downwards in a few days, above 1.1550.

News of the week: In the United States, the week is short - on Thursday, November 23 Thanksgiving Day.

Wednesday is important: orders for durable goods in the US - in recent months the data has been very strong - if the trend continues, a strong argument in favor of the dollar.

GBPUSD

The corridor continues.

Waiting for an exit:

Buying is higher than 1.3335.

Selling below 1.3025.

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