EURJPY Fundamental Analysis February 14, 2017

The EUR/JPY pair has been rejecting buyers from the beginning of the week and currently it is below the resistance level 120.55. Today German Prelim GDP report was released. It came out as 0.4% which was expected to be 0.5%, at the same time Italian Prelim GDP report was also 0.2% which was expected to be 0.3%. Among the European nations, German and Spanish Prelim GDP signaled the weakness of EUR fundamentally which helped JPY to gain some strength over EUR today. Though JPY is also influenced some bad economic data previously. If JPY can keep EUR below the psychological resistance level of 120.55, today it is expected that EUR can see more downward movement or else EUR can gain strength against JPY.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing indecision below the resistance area between 120.55-85 where JPY is struggling to take the price lower. This is a clear sign of the presence of EUR bulls who are trying to push the price higher. If the price reaches and breaks above the 120.85 level, it is expected that EUR will gain strength again against JPY. On the other hand, if the price breaks below 120 it is expected that price will go more down towards 119.25-30 level.

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GBP/USD fundamental analysis for February 14, 2017

The volatility in the GBP/USD pair still exists below the resistance 1.2550. Today GBP had a massive fall after the news CPI report came with a lower figure of 1.8%, which was expected to be 1.9%. The RPI was also published with lower figure 2.6%, which was expected 2.8% as well as Core CPI had result of 1.6% which was expected 1.7%. Though PPI input was quite in a positive side with 1.7% which was expected to be 1%, it did not affect the GBP performance as the previous value was 2.7%. Overall, fundamentally GBP had a very bad day with negative reports where USD gained a good amount of strength against it. Today FED chair Yellen will be testifying the monetary policy which is expected to have hawkish effect on USD to regain some USD strength for the week.

Now let us look at the technical view, after rejecting the resistance area between 1.2515-50 area, once again GBP has lost its ground against the USD. With negative economic reports GBP were weak against USD and ahead of Yellen's speech it is expected that USD is going to gain a good amount of strength against GBP. Currently, it is expected that the price will reach the support 1.2410-20 area and if the price breaks this support area there will be more downward move in this pair. On the other hand, if the price rejects from the 1.2410-20 area we might see some corrective structure between the 1.2515 resistance and 1.2410-20 support area.analytics58a3133ccc296.jpg

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feburary 14, 2017

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USD/JPY is Under pressure. The pair shows further downside potential after its downward break out of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum. As long as 113.85 holds as resistance, a further downside to 113.05 and 112.80 is expected.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.05. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 112.80. The pivot point stands at 113.85. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 114.20 and the second one at 114.60.

Resistance levels: 113.05, 112.75 and 112.45 Support levels: 114.20, 114.60, and 114.95.

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EUR/NZD analysis for February 14, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/NZD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.4785. According to the 15M time frame, I found downward channel, which is sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of upward trendline to confirm lower price. Downward targets are set at the price of 1.4730 and 1.4680. Anyway, if the price breaks downward channel upside, EUR/NZD may test the level of 1.4860.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4815

R2: 1.4835

R3: 1.4875

Support levels:

S1: 1.4735

S2: 1.4710

S3: 1.4670

Trading recommendations for today: watch for buying potential selling if the price breaks upward trendline.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for Feburary 14, 2017

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USD/CHF is expected to further advance. The pair is supported by a bullish trend line since Feb. 9, which confirms a positive view. The upward momentum is further reinforced by its rising 50-period moving average, which plays a support role and maintains the upside bias. In addition, the relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50.

Additionally, a support base has formed around 1.000, which should limit the downside potential. Above 1.000, a further upside to 1.0070 and even 1.0095 is likely.

Resistance levels: 1.0070, 1.0095, and 1.0210

Support levels: 0.9985, 0.9965, and 0.9930

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for Feburary 14, 2017

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NZD/USD is Under pressure. Despite of recent rebound from 0.7150 (previous low), the pair is still under pressure below the key resistance at 0.7210, which maintains the selling pressure. In addition, the declining 50-period moving average is playing a resistance role and suggests that the price still has potential for a further drop. Even though a continuation of technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. As long as 0.7210 is not surpassed, the pair is likely to return to its next support at 0.7150. A break below this level would bring a new drop to 0.7120.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7250. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7120. The pivot point stands at 0.7210. If the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7240 and the second one at 0.7280.

Resistance levels: 0.7240, 0.7280 and 0.7310

Support levels: 0.7150, 0.7120, and 0.7085

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 14, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade on the upside. The pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias, and is holding upside. The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Additionally, 141.45 is playing a key support role, which should limit the downside potential. As long as this key level is not broken, look for a further upside to 142.65 and then to 143.10.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 142.65 and the second one at 143.10. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 141.75, if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 140.50. The pivot point is at 141.75.

Resistance levels: 142.65, 143.10, and 143.75

Support levels: 141.35, 140.90 and 140.35

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Gold analysis for February 14, 2017

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Recently, gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,221.32. Anyway, according to the 1H time frame, I found hidden bullish divergence in creation on the moving average oscilator. There is also a potential double bottom formation. My advice is to watch for potetnial buying positions. The first target is set at the price of $1,236.50. If the price breaks the level of $1,237.00, It will confirm double bottom formation and bullish divergence.

Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,229.45

R2: 1,232.30

R3: 1,236.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,220.50

S2: 1,217.45

S3: 1,212.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 14/02/2017

Global macro overview for 14/02/2017:

The Consumer Price Index and Producer and Import prices data from Switzerland were published this morning and they were slightly better than expected. The CPI increased from -0.1% to 0.0% on a month-to-month basis. There was a year-on-year increase of 0.3% from 0.0% previously which was in line with consensus forecasts. This means the inflation rate moved into positive territory for the first time since the third quarter of 2014.Domestic prices rose 0.2% over the year while import prices rose 0.7% despite a monthly decline in prices. The biggest decline in prices was reported for clothing and shoes due to the seasonal sales. The upward pressure in the prices was noticed in the prices of the hotel bookings with fuel and heating-oil costs also registering a monthly increase. In conclusion, not a huge change in the economy and inflation, but there might be some important psychological impact of the fact that the inflation rate is no longer negative anymore.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is currently trading just at the technical resistance at the level of 1.0058 and this seems to be the key level for any further move upward. If the bulls will fail to rally here, then the odds are high for the price to get back to the trading range and test the 61%Fibo at the level of 0.9850 once again.

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Global macro overview for 14/02/2017

Global macro overview for 14/02/2017:

The Preliminary German GDP for the fourth quarter data were released this morning and they were slightly worse than expected. The market participants expected an increase of 0.5% for this quarter after 0.1% increase a quarter ago, but the GDP has increased only 0.4% in Q4. Nevertheless, the Europe's biggest economy posted moderately firmer fourth quarter growth and the current economic situation can be characterized by solid and steady growth.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/GBP technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had bounced from the intraday support at the level of 0.8447 and now the bulls might push the price towards the golden trend line resistance. In order to do this, the intraday resistance at the level of 0.8550 must be violated first, otherwise the price will go back to the trading range.

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Trading plan for 14/02/2017

Trading plan for 14/02/2017:

There will be a few economic releases during the European and American trading session, so let's take a look at the major fundamental events today: Consumer Price Index data from UK, ZEW Economic Sentiment from Germany and speech of the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen.

09:30 am GMT - Consumer Price Index from the UK

The Consumer Price Index data from the UK are scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT today and they are the most important news release for European session. The market participants expecting the CPI to decrease significantly from 0.5% last month to -0.5% and on the yearly basis from 1.9% to 1.6%. It is worth to mention that the inflation expectations are rather high among the market analysts, so any decrease in the inflation is not welcomed by the Bank of England.

The possible scenario for the GBP/USD pair after the news release is rather simple. In case of better than expected numbers, the market will try to rally and break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2581. In case of worse than expected numbers, the golden trendline should be violated and the market should get back to the trading range between the levels of 1.2411 - 1.2581.

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10:00 am GMT - ZEW Economic Sentiment from Germany

ZEW release, which tracks sentiment among financial analysts, offers an early estimate of economic conditions for February. They think the sentiment will be steady for the current and expected data. Moreover, after the gain that lifted the benchmark of ZEW Current Situation to a five-year high, the current readings should remain at elevated levels despite the political risk looming just around the corner.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at H1 time frame and figure out how the market can react after the news release. The golden trendline still acts as a dynamic resistance and only a sustained break out above this line will change the bias from bearish to bullish. The market conditions are not oversold anymore, so there is a chance for this pair to rally if the news will be better than expected. The target for the bulls should be set at the technical resistance at the level of 1.0658.

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03:00 pm GMT - Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks

Any reiterations from the last FED meeting minutes regarding a possible (and planned) interests rate hike or any hawkish tone of the speech regarding the US economy (employment, wages, inflation, etc.) will be positive for the US Dollar.

So let's check the technical situation at the US Dollar Index on the 4H time frame. The bears have managed to test the technical resistance at the level of 101.03, but no follow through has occurred so far. This is why any hawkish tone of Yellen might spark another rally towards the next technical resistance at the level of 101.73.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.7314. The pair fell from the level of 0.7314 to the bottom around 0.7190. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7265 followed by 0.7314, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7179. According to the previous events, the NZD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7265 and 0.7118. If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7265, the market will decline further to 0.6546. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7179 so as to test the first support. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.7118. The daily strong support is seen at 0.7118. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7375 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated.

Daily key levels:

  • Major resistance: 0.7314
  • Minor resistance: 0.7265
  • Intraday pivot point: 0.7179
  • Minor support: 0.7118
  • Major support: 0.7057
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 14, 2017

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Overview:

  • The trend of the USD/CHF pair movement was argumentative as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. According the previous events, the trend is still trading between the levels of 0.9974 and 1.0101. Besides, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.0101 and 0.9974 respectively. Yesterday, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9974 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.0045. Today, on the 4-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, the resistance will be set at the point of 1.0158. If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0158, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0158 (the level of 1.0158 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.0158 with the first target at 1.0050. If the trend breaks the support level of 1.0050, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.9974 in order to test the daily support 1. Generally, we expect a large range between the levels of 0.9974 and 1.0158.
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Technical analysis of USDX for February 14, 2017

The Dollar index is trading around resistance level of 101. The price remains inside the bearish channel although it managed to break briefly above it. The price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud in the 4-hour chart. This is a bullish sign. The pullback will be very important.

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Black lines - bearish channel

Red lines - support

Short-term support is at 100.50. Cloud support is at 100.15. The bulls must hold this level. A break below 100.15 will be a bearish sign and will most probably push the index towards 99-98.50. Resistance is at 101. The price is making higher highs and higher lows. Short-term trend has changed to bullish. The low could already be in and the pullback that I expect has high importance to the medium-term trend.

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Green line - long-term trendline support

In the weekly chart above, you see the price still between the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators (red and yellow lines). Wave low could very well be in, but a break above 101.70 is required for this scenario to have more chances. There is also a bearish scenario where we currently make a right hand shoulder with the neckline at 99 and a target towards 95-96 if the neckline breaks. Traders need to be very cautious as neither bullish nor bearish scenario is clearly depicted yet.

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Technical analysis of gold for February 14, 2017

Gold price tested short-term support yesterday at $1,220 and еру price bounced off that level confirming support. Trend remains bullish in the medium term and in the long term I remain bullish expecting a new big upward move towards $1,280-$1,320 to start soon.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

The Stochastic oscillator is diverging. The price has found support at the blue horizontal line and at the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Short-term support remains at $1,220 and resistance is at $1,237-39. Next upside target is at $1,280-$1,320. Only a break below $1,160 could put my bullish scenario in danger.

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Gold price is testing daily tenkan-sen (red line indicator) support. The price managed to break above the cloud but has entered back inside. Next daily support is at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,210-12. I do not expect this support to be broken. A break above $1,245 will confirm my bullish scenario and Gold will push higher towards $1,280-$1,320.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 14, 2017

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Wave summary:

The failure to rally above 121.33 has kept the minor correction alive and will likely course a minor spike to just below 120.22 before the next rally higher to above minor resistance at 121.33 and, more importantly, a break above 121.77 is seen. It confirms the rally higher towards 126.54 to complete wave 3.

In the short term, support is seen at 120.06 and then strong support is seen at 119.30, which is expected to be able to protect the downside for the rally above 121.33 and 121.77.

R3: 121.33

R2: 121.13

R1: 120.58

Pivot: 120.35

S1: 120.22

S2: 120.06

S3: 119.90

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 120.15 with stop paced at 119.90.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Feb 14, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as EU Economic Forecasts, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Industrial Production m/m, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Flash GDP q/q, Italian Prelim GDP q/q, German Final CPI m/m and German Prelim GDP q/q. The US will release the economic data, too, such as Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, NFIB Small Business Index, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0651.

Strong Resistance:1.0644.

Original Resistance: 1.0634.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0624.

Target Inner Area: 1.0599.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0574.

Original Support: 1.0564.

Strong Support: 1.0554.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0547.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Feb 14, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m and NFIB Small Business Index. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 114.29.

Resistance. 2: 114.07.

Resistance. 1: 113.84.

Support. 1: 113.58.

Support. 2: 113.35.

Support. 3: 113.13.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 14, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD went downwards on Monday, continuing the bearish movement that was started last week. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further bearish movement is envisaged as price goes toward the support lines at 1.0550, 1.0500 and 1.0450 within the next few trading days.

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USD/CHF: The near-term bullish signal on this pair was established as price went above the great psychological level at 1.0000. Price is also above another support line at 1.0050, going toward the resistance line at 1.0100. This could be a beginning of a serious bullish journey that would hold out till the end of the month.

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GBP/USD: This currency trading instrument is still in an equilibrium phase, which it started last week. But a rise in a bearish movement is very likely and it may happen any day. There would also be a bearish movement on some other GBP pairs as well. Long trades should not be held for a long time in this market.

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USD/JPY: There is a precarious bullish signal on the USD/JPY (which was started last week). Price is currently above the demand level at 113.50, and it may even retrace further toward the demand level at 113.00. As long as price does not retrace toward the demand level at 112.00, the bullish signal would be in place. Further upwards movement (which is expected anytime soon), would reinforce the existing bullish effort.

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EUR/JPY: The bias on the EUR/JPY is bearish. Bulls attempted to push price upwards yesterday, but their effort was aborted as price showed further weakness in February 13. There is a bearish signal in the market, and price could go further south, although this may soon be overturned by the expected bullish movement on JPY pairs.

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Daily analysis of USDX for February 14, 2017

The greenback is still waiting to receive a strong catalyst to follow the upside bias on a short-term basis. We can spot a strong resistance around 101.43, where a breakout should deliver more bulls' strength to reach the 102.39 zone as the next target on this side of the market. However, if USDX does a pullback, it can re-test the 100.00 handle, as the MACD indicator is getting overbought.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 101.43 / 102.38

H1 chart's support levels: 100.01 / 98.98

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 100.01, take profit is at 98.98 and stop loss is at 101.03.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 14, 2017

The pair is recovering above the 200 SMA once again, as the Sterling got fresh momentum during yesterday's American session, amid a little sell-off seen in the USD. Currently, the Cable is targeting the 1.2561 zone, where a breakout should help to accelerate the upside toward 1.2645, while a pullback can send GBP/USD to test the support level of 1.2475.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2561 / 1.2645

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2475 / 1.2414

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2561, take profit is at 1.2645 and stop loss is at 1.2480.

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Daily Video Analysis on USD/JPY - 13th February 2017

We take an in-depth look on USD/JPY to see if there are any trading opportunities available for us to trade off and generate potential profits from. We explain clearly how we utilize a range of analytical approaches from Fibonacci retracements to Fibonacci extensions, price action and oscillators to determine such trading opportunities.

Join us and learn how to find good trading opportunities through technical analysis!

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EUR/JPY reacting off resistance, remain bearish

The price has reached our selling area previously and reacted off it nicely. We remain bearish below the 121.09 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to the 119.65 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal support, recent swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing resistance at the 92% level.

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USD/JPY testing major resistance, remain bearish

We remain bearish below the 113.95 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance) for a drop down to the 112.56 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 94% level.

Sell below 113.95. Stop loss at 114.95. Take profit at 112.56.

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