Weekly Dollar index analysis

The Dollar index is consolidating between 98 and 95.50 for the last 8 months. Price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area of the entire decline from 103.85 to 88.15. This is a high probability turning point of the medium-term trend in the Dollar index.

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Red rectangle - major resistance area

Black line - important support trend line

The Dollar index is trading below the double top at 98-98.25. Price has stopped its rise just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and my most probable scenario is a bearish reversal from current levels. Confirmation for this scenario will come with a weekly close below 95.60. A weekly close above 98.25 will be a bullish sign and will open the way for a move at least towards 100.40.

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EURUSD fails to break critical resistance and retests support

EURUSD price saw another rejection at the 1.1280 area and a strong bearish pull back towards 1.12 support. So far support holds but time is running out. Soon we will have a strong breakout with a clear signal. The end of this sideways move is near.

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Green rectangle - support

Green line - major trend line support

Red rectangle - major resistance

EURUSD made a strong move higher as expected towards 1.1280. Price got rejected and a triple top has been formed there. Resistance has been confirmed at 1.1280-1.13 area. Next time EURUSD visits this area we will have a break out...there will not be a fourth time rejection. Support at 1.12 remains valid. Price has reached 1.12 three times and each time price has bounced. Again I do not expect to see price test 1.12-1.1180 for the fourth time. A break below 1.12 will most probably be real next time if it occurs and it will accelerate selling pressures towards 1.11-1.10. Price continues to trade inside this trading range so traders need to be very cautious. I expect this sideways trend to end soon.

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Weekly Gold analysis

Gold price made a new higher high and a new higher weekly close this week. Trend remains bullish although in the short-term price seems to be moving mostly sideways digesting the big rally from May to June.

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Blue line - long-term resistance trend line (broken)

Green line- long-term support trend line

Black line- resistance

Gold price is in bullish trend since end of July 2018. Price has broken above the major resistance trend line at $1,350 and so far staying above it is a bullish sign for the longer-term trend. Recent weeks Gold price has been trading between $1,450-$,1390 with selling pressures each time price moves towards $1,450. Gold bulls however continue to support the trend as price does not fall below $1,400. As long as price remains above $1,390-$1,400 we remain short- and medium-term optimistic for a move towards $1,500 and higher. Breaking below $1,400-$1,390 will open the way for a back test of the blue broken trend line that is now support and was previously resistance. Long-term bullish trend is in danger only if price breaks below the green trend line.

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