Predictions for 2019: Apple will swallow Tesla, the Fed chief will be fired, and Netflix will go bankrupt

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Danish Saxo Bank has published a list of "shocking forecasts", which are positioned as "unlikely", but still have a place.

Solar flare and damage of two trillion. Considering the cycles of solar activity next year, a giant flash will occur that will cause a powerful magnetic storm. Because of this, most satellites over the western hemisphere of the Earth will be destroyed. Problems will arise in the areas of logistics, travel, electricity supply and other areas related to GPS. Experts estimate that a solar flare will cost $ 2 trillion for the global economy.

Apple will buy Tesla. Tesla will be in a difficult economic situation. And Apple will increasingly seek to enter the automotive market. Apple will finance the purchase of Tesla, which needs to be invested. Ilona Mask's shares will be bought at a price of $ 520 per share, $ 100 higher than in Mask's recent tweet. Apple has enough financial capacity to implement all the costly ideas of the founder of Tesla, and this will lead to the fact that the combined company will ensure its dominance in the automotive industry for many years.

Death of Netflix. In 2019, there will be problems in the corporate bond market. It all starts with the fact that the company General Electric finally loses the confidence of investors, the bankruptcy procedure begins. This will cause a domino effect. Investors will start to panic, Netflix will be in jeopardy because it has a big debt on its balance sheet. In addition, for Netflix, Disney's entry into the streaming video market will exacerbate the situation.

Also among the shocking projections, there is a version that the IMF and the World Bank will stop calculating GDP, and Trump will dismiss the Fed head, the reason for this will be the collapse of the US economy after the Fed again raises interest rates in the winter. By the summer, stocks will be in a deep hole, and the US yield curve will completely turn over. Enraged, Trump will fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and appoint Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, to take his place.

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Gold: the fight for a place in the sun continues

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On the eve, the gold rate reached a maximum value for the first time since mid-July.

Today, the precious metal is getting cheaper by correction, bargaining around the $ 1240 mark for 1 ounce.

According to experts, the dynamics of gold is still highly dependent on the behavior of the dollar.

Since the beginning of the trade war, the dollar has become the main asset of the "safe haven" to hedge this risk.

In addition, during the year, it received support from the increase in the yield of US government bonds, which exceeded the rate of inflation in the country.

Meanwhile, even the stock market correction did not help gold. So, since the beginning of this year, the DAX index fell by almost 13%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index, more than 9%.

"The upward trend in the US currency is still in force, so in the near future, the precious metal is unlikely to be able to demonstrate steady growth," analysts say.

"However, in the longer term, given the risks for the dollar by the Fed, the outlook for gold may improve," they added.

According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs, next year, the price of gold could reach $ 1,350 for 1 ounce.

"If the pace of recovery of the American economy in 2019 slows down, then the demand for precious metals will show significant growth. In the current price of gold, 10 of the 12 expected interest rate hikes by the Fed have already been laid. Next year, the precious metal may become one of the most sought-after assets for trading among commodities," said bank spokesman Jeffrey Curry.

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Brexit: Why did the pound soar? The first debate on the Brexit agreement began in the British Parliament

The debates and discussions that began in the British Parliament today on the Brexit issue, support the British pound, which sharply strengthened its position against the US dollar today in the morning. Weak data on the service sector was ignored by traders, although on a typical day such a sharp drop in the region of 50 points would have led to a massive sale of the British pound against a number of world currencies.

Today began the discussion in Parliament agreed by the government agreement on withdrawal from the EU. The discussion will last five days, and on December 11, there will be a final vote on this issue. It is possible that any news or insider will lead to a surge in volatility of the pound to either side.

As I noted above, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the UK services sector, which is quite important for the economy, dropped to 50.4 points this November, indicating a slowdown in economic growth at the end of this year.

In Markit said that the main reason for the decline was a sharp drop in the growth rate of new orders and the deterioration of expectations for the year ahead. The composite PMI index of Great Britain in November of this year fell to 51.0 points. Let me remind you that the index value below 50 points indicates a slowdown in activity. Considering that all the attention of traders is now focused on the Brexit debates, it is quite possible that the current report will simply be played in the future.

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In Markit also noticed that the current survey results for supply managers in the UK in November of this year may lead to the fact that the country's GDP in the 4th quarter will grow by only 0.1%.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, it makes little sense to make any predictions about short-term movements. Large resistance levels are seen around 1.2815 and 1.2870, while support is located at 1.2680 and 1.2570.

The European currency has slightly risen against the US dollar, but it's difficult to talk about further maintaining the uptrend.

The report on the field of servants did not lead to significant changes in the market.

According to the data, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector of Italy rose to 50.3 in November of this year, returning above 50 points, while in October it is at the level of 49.2 points. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged.

The PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector of France in November, on the contrary, dropped to 55.1 points from 55.3 points in October of this year. Economists had forecast the index at 55.0 points.

In Germany, a similar service sector fell to 53.3 points against 54.7 points in October of this year. Economists had expected the PMI for Germany in November to be 53.3 points.

As for the eurozone, the purchasing managers' index for the services sector also slightly declined in November and amounted to 53.4 points against 53.7 points in October of this year. Economists had expected the index to decline to 53.1 points.

The technical picture in the EUR / USD currency pair remained unchanged. Only a breakthrough of a large support level in the area of 1.1310 can lead to a larger sale of the European currency with a rise to the lows of last month in the area of 1.1270. In the case of an upward correction, provided that the pair fails to break below 1.1310, the upward potential will be limited by resistances of 1.1380 and 1.1410.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on December 5. The pound ignores the bad data on the service industry and shows

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Just terrible data on the services sector in the UK were ignored by traders. This again shows that all attention is focused on Brexit and the decision of the parliament. It is best to consider long positions on the pound after updating the support of 1.2737 with the formation of a false breakdown there, or again to rebound from the low of 1.2674. In the scenario of a strong fall of the pound, you can immediately buy to rebound from the support of 1.2625 and 1.2569. The main goal of the bulls today will be a breakthrough of the level of 1.2812, above which resistance of 1.2868 is seen, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Any negative news on Brexit will quickly return pound sellers. Consider short positions at the current moment can be from the resistance level of 1.2812 or immediately to rebound from a new high of 1.2868. The main task of the bears in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support level of 1.2737, which will lead to a new sale of GBP / USD with a breakthrough of the daily minimum around 1.2674 and exit to 1.2625, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, but this does not mean the formation of a new upward wave.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, long positions can be returned immediately to the rebound from the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.2674.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on December 5. Speech by the President of the ECB led to the strengthening of the euro

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The speech of the President of the ECB led to the strengthening of the euro, and as long as trade is conducted above the level of 1.1336, demand will remain, which will lead to the renewal of a larger area of 1.1374, where I recommend fixing the profits. Only statements by the Fed chairman regarding interest rates can lead to a further upward trend in the euro, reaching a maximum of 1.1408. In the case of a decline in EUR / USD in the second half of the day, you can rely on purchases to rebound from the support of 1.1301.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers need to return to the level of 1.1336, which may increase the pressure on the euro. However, the focus will be on the speech of the Fed Chairman. His statements regarding the need for further increases in interest rates may bring down the European currency in the support area of 1.1301 and 1.1272, where I recommend fixing the profits. If Powell repeats its recent statements about a neutral interest rate, the pressure on the US dollar may increase. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions in EUR / USD to rebound from a maximum of 1.1408.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility decreased. There are no market entry signals.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Major investment intrigues that can be resolved before the end of this year

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According to experts, the past month in the financial markets was rather boring, except for the continued strong fall in oil prices. However, in recent days, the movement in many instruments has noticeably intensified, as if they have found a second wind. It is assumed that by the end of this year, 3 investment intrigues can be resolved, each of which is likely to provide traders with the opportunity to earn extra money before the holidays.

1. Will oil save from collapse?

The fate of the price of black gold should be determined this week in Vienna, where a meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement will take place on December 7. The decision taken at this meeting will determine where the quotes will go in the next few months.

The main intrigue now is that in the run-up to the December summit, the participants in the transaction receive contradictory information. Earlier, the media reported that Saudi Arabia is negotiating with partners in OPEC + to reduce the production of raw materials by at least 1 million barrels per day. At the same time, in a number of publications, figures of 1.4-1.5 million barrels per day could be found.

However, it is not long to wait, and depending on what the production quotas will be and by what value the "oil club" will be ready to reduce, by the end of the year, prices will either return to levels of $ 68-72 per barrel, or remain in the range of $ 60 -65 a barrel, if it turns out that for a complete balancing of the market, the volumes have not been reduced sufficiently.

2. Will the dollar weaken?

We can probably get an answer to this question when the last meetings of the ECB and the Fed are held this year. It is not yet clear how the market will respond to decisions, and especially to the rhetoric of financial regulators based on these meetings.

It should be noted that representatives of the IMF have long been talking about the overvaluation of the American currency, and many banks and large investment funds predict a weakening of its position. A dear dollar may not be necessary for the White House either, since it almost nullifies the effects of tax cuts and the imposition of customs duties.

Meanwhile, until the end of the cycle of increase in interest rates in the United States, about a year remains, and all future increases, apparently, have already been laid in the course of the American currency.

3. Will the pound stand?

After a lengthy negotiation process with the European Union, the UK authorities managed to secure the approval of the draft Brexit agreement by the remaining countries of the alliance. Now the British parliament has to decide whether to give the green light to the "divorce" contract.

On the eve of the House of Commons launched a five-day debate, anticipating scheduled for December 11 vote on a deal with the EU. Opening them, Prime Minister Theresa May stressed that a "divorce" from Brussels should not split the country into two camps.

"We will be able to take advantage of this moment (exit from the EU) only if we are able to implement such a Brexit, which will again unite our country," she said.

If the lawmakers do not approve the document, the fluctuation corridor of the GBP / USD pair may expand to 1.25-1.30, and then everything will depend on the development of the situation, whether the "tough" Brexit, the resignation of the prime minister and the second referendum follow.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5, 2018

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile for a few weeks in a row. The price pushed impulsively lower below 128.50 with a daily close, yet indecisively to sustain the pressure. EUR has been quite positive amid the recent economic reports. Nevertheless, JPY managed to gain momentum because of strong fundamentals.

EUR asserted its strength today. However, the eurozone's economy is facing a challenge due to political and economic headwinds. Thus, EUR is struggling to gain ground against JPY. Today Spanish Services PMI report was published unchanged at 54.0 which was expected to decrease to 53.9, Italian Services PMI increased to 50.3 which was expected to be unchanged at 49.2, French Final Services increased to 55.1 which was expected to be unchanged at 55.0, German Final Services PMI remained unchanged as expected at 53.3, the eurozone's Final Services PMI increased to 53.4 which was expected to be unchanged at 53.1, and Retail Sales increased to 0.3%, following a 0.5% drop which was expected to be at 0.2%. Moreover, ECB President Draghi spoke about the positive economic development which helped EUR to sustain the overall pressure.

On the JPY side, the 2% inflation target along with BOJ is currently being adapted by Japanese Prime Minister Abe. Besides, Japan is likely to lead Free Trade next year, creating more businesses on the back of steady economic development. Recently Japan's Monetary Base report was published with an increase to 6.1% from the previous value of 5.9% which was expected to decrease to 5.7%. It helped the currency to gain impulsive momentum over EUR recently. On Friday, Japan's Household Spending report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.2% from the previous value of -1.6% and Average Cash Earnings is expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%.

Meantime, the market is anticipating upbeat reports from Japan. Thus, JPY is performing better than EUR on the whole. Though EUR has gained good momentum today because of positive economic data, some troubles like unsettled Italy's budget deficit is bearish for EUR. As a result, JPY is expected to gain impulsive momentum in the coming days if Japan releases solid economic data.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the corrective range between 127.50 to 129.50. The price recently sank below 128.50 amid impulsive bearish pressure which does not indicate the sustainability of the upcoming bearish pressure as it remains above 127.50 with a daily close. So, for further bearish momentum in this pair, a daily close below 127.50 is required whereas a daily close above 128.50 is expected to lead to further correction and an upward move towards 129.50 area. As the price remains below 130.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 125.50, 126.50, 127.50

RESISTANCE: 128.50, 129.50, 130.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The dollar will continue to keep the defense in the wake of the inversion of the yield curve

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The dollar offset some of its recent losses, but remains under pressure, as the inversion of the US Treasury bond yield curve raises concerns about a possible recession.

Investors continue to be nervous because of the inversion of the yield curve between three-year and five-year US government bonds and between two-year and five-year ones. At the initial stage of the inversion of the yield curve, markets should understand whether there will be a recession. In this position, they react more aggressively to weaker than to strong data, so the dollar is likely to be in the "correction mode".

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Raising interest rates will lead to an increase in the yield of short-term securities, even if the expectation of a slowdown in economic growth will lead to a decrease in the yield of long-term bonds. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates in the United States were already close to neutral levels, according to markets, these comments signal a slowdown in rates hikes. The spread between three-month treasury bills and 10-year-olds was 50 basis points, which is the lowest since October 2007. One thing is for sure, the Federal Reserve may slow down interest rates, but it will not exactly lower them. Considering all these circumstances, the dollar will have to take a pause anyway. So far there are no specific reasons for a recession, but there are also none.

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The collapse of the Dow Jones index on Tuesday was the largest in 2018

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According to experts, the collapse of the US stock market on Tuesday, December 4, in particular, the collapse of the Dow Jones index, was one of the most significant events in the world of finance.

At yesterday's trading index Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to a record of 799 points. By the end of the trading session, it amounted to 25027.07 points, which is 3.1% below the closing level of the previous session. The most significant drop was demonstrated by the Dow Jones Transportation Average transport subindex. It fell by 4.4%, to 476 points. The S & P 500 index also fell in the red, losing 3.1% and falling to 2700.07 points. The Nasdaq index dipped by 3.8%, dropping to 7158.43 points.

Experts consider the Dow Jones collapse, recorded on December 4, 2018, the fourth largest one-day collapse in the history of the index. Other significant falls in the US stock market this year occurred on February 8 and 5, when the DJIA index fell by 3.15% and 4.1%, respectively, and on October 10, when it lost 4.6%.

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The reasons for the fall of the US stock market analysts believe the growth of investors' concerns about the lengthy trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the not very good prospects for the American economy.

Experts remind that the temporary truce reached the G20 summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping does not inspire optimism to financial market participants. Washington has repeatedly tried to force Beijing to change its approach to financing a number of industries, but the Chinese authorities are categorically against it. In the Celestial Empire stated that they will change the key state programs in accordance with the plans for the long-term development of the country.

At the G20 summit, the parties agreed on cooperation and joint efforts to reach a compromise in trade within 90 days. In the absence of a result on this issue, large American banks, corporations and small companies in the country expect a financial collapse. A negative factor may be the slowdown in US GDP growth in 2019, which is predicted by many experts. At the same time, the rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the USA to the level of 2% -2.25% is estimated as too high for the stable functioning of the American economy.

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Review of the foreign exchange market on December 5, 2018

Quite interesting things were happening yesterday with a single European currency and pound. At the very beginning of the day, they were actively strengthened, and for no apparent reason, since all the statistics came out later. Although one of the representatives of the European Union said that Theresa May still has the option of completely abandoning Brexit. Allegedly, there is a legal loophole through which the UK can terminate the procedure and return everything to the state it was before the referendum. But it could hardly affect, all the more positively. After all, the refusal of Brexit will in many respects have a negative impact on the prospects of many European countries, which currently expect to eliminate a competitor in the domestic European market. Moreover, if Theresa May takes this step, then in Britain herself it will be considered a violation of the will of the people expressed during the referendum, and she can say goodbye to her political career. So the weakening of the dollar is more likely due to its overbought. The expectations for European statistics were quite optimistic. Moreover, the forecasts were not just justified, since the actual data turned out to be much better. Thus, the business activity index in the UK manufacturing sector grew from 53.2 to 53.4, while the growth rate of producer prices in Europe accelerated from 4.6% to 4.9%. But since noon, the dollar began to strengthen, and in time, it coincided with the performance of Mark Carney. The head of the Bank of England continued to paint a terrifying picture of the future, in which the pound is waiting for a collapse of 15% - 20%, and inflation will jump to 10%. True, it is not clear what happened to the forecast about the pound below parity against the dollar, which he recently gave.

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Apparently, the pound flew down precisely because of the words of Mark Carney, and the single European currency because of the words of the representatives of the European Union about the remaining backup version, which is available to Theresa May.

After yesterday's strengthening of the dollar, the rebound suggests itself, and, frankly, there are plenty of reasons for this. Indeed, in the United States of America, there are no statistical data, and everything will depend on European statistics, forecasts for which are quite good.

Thus, the final data on business activity indices in the euro area should confirm the decline in the business activity index in the services sector from 53.7 to 53.1, and the composite from 53.1 to 52.4. But this data is already taken into account by the market after the publication of preliminary data. But retail sales can inspire investors, as their growth rates should accelerate from 0.8% to 2.1%. Given that this is a serious inflation factor, the single European currency may rise to 1.1375.

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The pound will also have a reason for the growth in the form of an index of business activity in the services sector. Given that the UK does not publish preliminary data, the market still had nothing to consider, and the growth of the index from 52.2 to 52.5, given the oversold pound, this is an excellent reason to strengthen it. So the pound has good chances to grow to 1.2725.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for December 5. The pair is preparing for a new strong fall?

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Wave counting analysis:

In the course of trading on Tuesday, the EUR / USD currency pair lost only about 15 basis points, although it added about 70 basis points during the day. Wave counting suffered some changes. The news background is still not on the side of the euro, so, most likely, we will see a three-wave correctional structure, possibly with a shortened waveform. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume with targets located near the level of 100.0%. However, given the lack of news support, the instrument may not reach this level.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1215 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1471 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair continues to be in the framework of building the uptrend of the trend, which is likely to be corrective. Thus, I expect to build a wave with targets around the mark of 1.1471. However, buying a pair is now too risky. And sales, without confirmation of the completion of the construction of the trend correction section, are premature. Therefore, now I recommend following the situation.

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EUR / USD: US dollar rose on expectations of a further monetary tightening by the Fed

The US dollar strengthened its position against the euro and the British pound, as yesterday's decision of the European Court, which initially supported risky assets, actually made even more confusion in the Brexit deal.

Let me remind you that yesterday, Adviser to the European Court of Manuel Campos Sanchez-Bordona said that the British government has the right to unilaterally withdraw the decision to withdraw from the European Union. If such a decision is made, the consent of other EU members is not required for this.

However, this decision put the Prime Minister of Great Britain Theresa May in an awkward situation. Read more about this in my yesterday's review.

Meanwhile, the US leadership continued to talk about the breakthrough that was achieved in the trade negotiations this weekend. During yesterday's speech, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the US administration is no longer considering the introduction of new taxes since for the first time in a long time, it's really clear that China is ready for trade talks. Mnuchin is convinced that the deal with China is one of the largest opportunities for American workers and companies.

The data, which came out yesterday on ISM-New York, did not greatly affect the market. According to the report, the conditions indicator for doing business in the responsibility of the New York Fed in November fell to its lowest level in six months.

According to the report of the New York branch of the Institute for Supply Management, the index of current business conditions in November fell to 67.8 points against 69.8 points in October. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 mean acceleration of business growth. The employment indicator was 72.7 points against a high of 82.1 points.

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The speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, supported the US dollar since he spoke without any doubts about the further prospects for raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve System.

Fed President New York Williams expects a further gradual increase in interest rates, if necessary, as the Fed has been very successful in managing its employment and inflation mandates. Williams is also confident that the economy is in very good condition and growth should continue at least 3% this year and 2.5% next.

With regard to inflation forecasts, the Fed representative expects that it will slightly exceed the target level of 2%.

Regarding the monetary policy outlook, the Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that the timing of future rate increases is an important subject for discussion, and gradual rate increases over the next year or so are still likely, but will directly depend on incoming data.

Let me remind you that quite recently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the level of neutral interest rates was almost reached, which led to a sharp decline in the US dollar against the euro and the British pound, since such statements may affect the rate of interest rate increase next year.

As for the current technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, a breakthrough of a large support level in the area of 1.1310 may lead to a larger sell-off of the European currency with a rise to the lows of last month in the 1.1270 area. In the case of an upward correction, provided that the pair fails to break below 1.1310, the upward potential will be limited by resistances of 1.1380 and 1.1410.

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GBP / USD. 5th of December. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Debate on Brexit starts in British Parliament

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -169.5358

The currency pair GBP / USD on Wednesday, December 5, resumed the intensified downward movement after a rebound from the Murray level of 4/8. As we have repeatedly said, there are still no compelling reasons for the growth of the pound sterling. Therefore, the maximum that the UK currency can count on in the current conditions is a technical correction. Even yesterday, the information that the UK has the full right to refuse Brexit unilaterally, caused only a brief strengthening of the British currency. After that, the fall resumed with the overcoming of a very important and strong support area of 1.2720 - 1.2700. Today in the UK, index of business activity in the services sector will be published, and from the United States is not expected to receive any important information. Also, it was reported that the deputies of the House of Commons initiated the consideration of the case of disrespect of the Cabinet of Ministers to the legislature due to the refusal of the May government to provide a detailed assessment of the consequences of leaving the country from the EU. Now, the chances that Theresa May's initiatives will be approved by Parliament are reduced even further. In general, there is still no positive news for the pound. A vote in parliament on December 11, which will be preceded by a 5-day debate, will be a key event for the UK in 2018.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2695

S2 - 1.2665

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2726

R2 - 1.2756

R3 - 1.2787

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its downward movement. Therefore, at the moment, short positions with targets of 1.2665 and 1.2634 are again relevant. The downward trend in the instrument persists, turning Heikin Ashi to the top will indicate a round of local correction.

Buy orders will become relevant small lots with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2848, if the bulls manage to overcome the moving average line. However, even in this case, the strong growth of the British currency can not be expected.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. 5th of December. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Euro currency has nothing to oppose the US dollar

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -85.0172

The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday, December 5, resumed its downward movement, unable to overcome the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1414. Thus, the next Eurocurrency chance of growth is lost. Two news slightly supported the euro at yesterday's auction. First, the Italian government announced that it would revise its draft budget and the new document "must satisfy" the European Commission. Secondly, the European Court of Justice reported that the country that initiated the withdrawal from the EU could unilaterally withdraw its decision. This news gave hope to the market that both conflict situations would be resolved in the best possible way. However, we warned yesterday that, most likely, the effect of these data will be very short-term. So it happened. Toward evening, the pair turned down and leveled all the advantages of the euro. At the moment, the downward movement continues. Today, the main package of macroeconomic messages will come from the eurozone. Business activity indices in the service and production sectors for November, as well as retail sales for October, will be published. Weak macroeconomic statistics can create additional pressure on the European currency, which already does not find any reason for more or less serious strengthening. Late in the US, the Beige Book will be published.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has once again fixed above the MA. Thus, today it is recommended to consider purchase orders with a target of 1.1414 (the second target is 1.1475). Manually closing long positions is recommended in the case of 1-2 bar color with Heikin Ashi indicator in blue.

Sell orders will again become relevant no earlier than price fixing below the moving average line with a target of 1.1292. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will again pass into the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified Wave Analysis EUR / CHF for the week of December 5

Large-scale graphics:

The main trend direction in the current year is directed to the "south" of the chart, but below the price is supported by strong support. From this zone since September, the oncoming wave of the H4 level is formed.

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Medium scale graphics:

The downward wave from October 22 is in the process of forming an intermediate pullback. The wave in the larger model takes the place of the middle part (B).

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Small-scale graphics:

On November 30, a new short-term wave started. A preliminary calculation allows you to wait for its completion in the area of calculated support.

Forecast and recommendations:

The conditions for changing the short-term price trend are being prepared on the chart. Supporters of intersessional trading can make short-term sales of the pair. Signals of entry into long trades should be monitored in the area of support.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1340 / 1.1390

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction requires confirming signals of the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GBP / USD for the week of December 5

Large-scale graphics:

The long-term vector of the pound since April is directed downwards. From the middle of August, the H4 wave formed towards the trend, which took the place of correction in the older model.

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Medium scale graphics:

The high wave level of the decline that started on November 7 indicates a high probability of the completion of the bullish wave TF H4. The first part (A) is formed in the movement structure. The last 3 weeks in the flat formed the middle part (B).

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Small scale graphics:

Since November 15, the "side-track" with a downward vector is tracked on the chart. This wave of bullish correction of the wrong kind, which lacks the final part (C).

Forecast and recommendations:

The main trend vector pound indicates the prospects of sales in the coming month. Purchases are risky, possible only with intraday trading. It's wise to wait for the current correction to complete and look for signals for short trades.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2910 / 1.2960

Support areas:

- 1.2680 / 1.2630

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction requires confirming signals of the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD on December 5th. Forces at the bulls for a long time was not enough

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair rebounded from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1423 with the formation of a bearish divergence at the MACD indicator and a reversal in favor of the American currency. As a result, on December 5, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% - 1.1303. Rebounding the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. Fixing quotes below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1162.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD currency pair rebounded from the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.1285, but now it has already begun the process of returning to this level of correction. The new rebound from the level of 127.2% will again allow us to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There is no maturing divergence in any indicator. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair with a target of 1.1423 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1303.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.1162 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1303.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the GBP / USD Divergences for December 5th. The pound failed to make a breakthrough of 1.28.

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart performed a rebound from the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812 and a fall to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2662. Releasing the pair on December 5 from the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 76.4%. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2492.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, after a new end of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809, the currency pair completed a fall to the level of 100.0% - 1.2696. The end of the pair's quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the pound sterling and the beginning of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2809. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing to fall in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.2567.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

New sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2567 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% if the closing is completed below the 1.2696 level (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The collapse in the markets as a foreshadowing of a new recession

As we expected, optimism in the global markets, caused by agreements on customs duties between the United States and China with a deadline of 90 days, did not last long. Fears that neither this event nor the stimulation of the local economy by China is unlikely to save the world economy from a slowdown in growth have grown again.

On Wednesday, the decline in Asian stock markets continued after the collapse on Tuesday of the US stock market. Investors have fully begun to fear the stalling of the US economy into recession. The yields of US Treasury government bonds continue to fall, and the yield curve of 3 and 5-year-old T-Bond is increasingly bogged down in negative territory, demonstrating inversion. Earlier in the late twentieth century, as well as at the beginning of the twenty-first century, such a dynamic anticipated the beginning of a slowdown in the growth of the American economy with its subsequent collapse into recession.

Against this background, after a relatively small depreciation of the dollar, its quotes began to grow again, which can be explained by the growing demand for defensive assets and, above all, the US currency. On this wave, taking into account the historical experience, it can be assumed that the further preservation of negative sentiment may in the future continue to support its course.

The continuation of the publication of GDP data of economically developed countries after the United States, China and the Eurozone with Germany indicates that the most serious fears associated with a slowdown in the growth of the world economy are justified. The publication of the Australian GDP on Wednesday clearly indicates this. It was assumed that the macro indicator in annual terms will show a decrease in growth to 3.3% from 3.4% in the third quarter, and it fell to 2.8%. Its quarterly value also dropped significantly in growth, to 0.3% from 0.9% against the background of expectations of a decline to 0.6%.

The Australian dollar reacted to this news with a noticeable depreciation paired with the US dollar. And all currency pairs in the big Forex, where the US dollar is present, have shown its growth.

Evaluating the emerging dynamics in the markets and the growth of fears about the prospects for the global economy, we can assume that the dollar can be in demand against major currencies in the short term, despite a likely and even expected pause in the Fed's interest rate increase next year.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD / USD currency pair fell amid weak Australian GDP data. If it keeps below the level of 0.7300, then its fall is likely to continue to 0.7250.

The USD / CAD currency pair is trading above 1.3255 amid falling crude oil prices, which are under pressure as a result of the release of data on US oil reserves, which showed their growth, as well as a decrease in the risk appetite of investors. If the pair holds above this mark, it can continue to rise to 1.3380.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Growing panic points to a new wave of global crisis

The results of the G20 summit were not able to support positive sentiment, it took markets only a day to return to panic sales. US stocks fell by more than 3%, there was a sharp drop in yields on government bonds across the spectrum, the threat of a slowdown in the global economy does not lead to a further decline in oil prices, which can be regarded as an increase in doubts about financial stability in general.

The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector ISM in November exceeded the level of November, which was a surprise for the markets that were expecting a decline. A strong ISM traditionally supports the dollar, but this time the markets did not respond to the positive news. Perhaps the fact is that some important components of the index have deteriorated, in particular, the price subindex has decreased from 71.6p to 60.7p, heightening concerns about a slowdown in inflation.

Yes, and with new orders, the situation looks negative, despite some growth, the peak of the beginning of the year was far behind, and export orders fell to the area of 2-year lows.

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It is indicative that, on reaching agreement on the normalization of trade relations between the United States and China, the reaction on Monday was rather lopsided. On the one hand, the yuan has sharply strengthened, but relative to European currencies, the dollar continued to decline, that is, in general, the players are quite skeptical about the likelihood of reducing tensions and ending trade wars.

Growing panic for some time will play in favor of the dollar, but in the long term, the chances of continued growth are small.

Eurozone

Macroeconomic data from the eurozone support the euro. The growth of PMI in the manufacturing sector in November slightly increased. Producer prices also rose contrary to forecasts, despite cheaper oil, but in the current conditions, the positive was clearly not enough. The euro may return to the growth trajectory in the coming days, but the threat of launching TLTRO-3 by the summer of 2019, due to the need to maintain liquidity after the start of the TLTRO-2 redemption cycle, in order to prevent strong growth of the euro, will keep bulls at least until the last meeting ECB in the current year.

The currency pair EUR / USD has not yet gone beyond the wedge formed in the last month and can find support at 1.1290. Today, trade is likely to occur in the sideways range, the upper limit of which is in the 1.1360 / 65 zone.

Great Britain

A week before the fateful vote in parliament on the agreement reached on leaving Great Britain from the EU, the May government suffered a serious defeat in the House of Commons. The deputies voted to investigate the question of disrespect of the cabinet of ministers to the legislature, which was that the parliament for unclear reasons was not provided with the full text of the conclusion of the Attorney General of England and Wales Brexit agreement.

The proposal to hold the trial was supported by 311 deputies, 293 deputies voted against, indicating that May's cabinet lacked the necessary majority to approve the agreement.

The pound fell to an 18-month low, completely ignoring the positive macroeconomic data. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector rose in November to 53.1p against 51.1p, in the construction sector, from 53.2p to 53.4p, the growth in activity indicates the likelihood of higher GDP growth rates than previously thought.

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In previous times, the pound would have responded to the growth of positive data, but the situation on Brexit outweighs all other news many times over. Today, Markit will publish PMI data in the service sector, the pound may receive some support, but on the whole, it must be assumed that the chances of failing to ratify the agreement are high and the pound will remain under strong pressure.

Today, GBP / USD will once again test the support of 1.2650 for strength. In the case of a breakdown, the movement may accelerate, the short-term target of 1.1430 can be achieved in the perspective of two days.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 5, 2018

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On October 30, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the lower limit of the H4 channel around 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

This week, unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720. Moreover, signs of bullish recovery originated around 1.2670 earlier Today.

Bullish persistence above 1.2780 (78.6% Fibo level) is mandatory to enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.2880 and 1.2940 where new trading decisions should be taken upon price action.

On the other hand, the current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2730 is achieved on lower timeframes quickly. Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 5, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Quick bullish advancement was demonstrated towards 1.1420. To be noted that prominent supply zone as well as the previous wave high are located around 1.1420-1.1520.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

On the other hand, if early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 05, 2018

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Overview:

In the long term, the NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.6705, then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for December 05, 2018

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.7249. The pair rose from the level of 0.7249 to a top around 0.7299 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 0.7249. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.7299 followed by 0.7352, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7185 (50% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7250 and 0.7352; so we expect a range of 102 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.7299, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (0.7299) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.7299 with the first target at 0.7352 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7394. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7394 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7069 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for December 5

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the upward structure of November 28 is considered as the main one and the level of 1.1297 is the key support for the top. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we are following the downward cycle of November 22 and we expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.2658. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price shaped the local potential for the upward movement and we expect the development of this structure after the breakdown of 0.9998. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 28. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 29. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we are following the downward structure of November 28 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 143.15.

Forecast for December 5:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1477, 1.1429, 1.1414, 1.1392, 1.1364, 1.1297, 1.1266, 1.1233 and 1.1206. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 28. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1364. Here, the first target is 1.1392 and the breakdown of which will continue the development of the upward structure from November 28. In this case, the target is 1.1414 and consolidation is near this level. The passage of the price range of 1.1414 - 1.1429, will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1477, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The breakdown of the level of 1.1297 will have to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.1266 and the breakdown of which, in turn, must be accompanied by a pronounced move to the level of 1.1233. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1206, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1364 Take profit: 1.1390

Buy 1.1392 Take profit: 1.1414

Sell: 1.1295 Take profit: 1.1268

Sell: 1.1264 Take profit: 1.1235

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2827, 1.2786, 1.2747, 1.2691, 1.2658, 1.2613 and 1.2583. Here, we are following the downward structure of November 22. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2691 - 1.2658 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.2613. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2583, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2747 - 1.27860 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 1.2827 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the local downward cycle of November 22.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2747 Take profit: 1.2784

Buy: 1.2788 Take profit: 1.2825

Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2659

Sell: 1.2655 Take profit: 1.2614

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0058, 1.0037, 1.0022, 0.9998, 0.9964, 0.9945 and 0.9915. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure from November 29th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9998. In this case, the goal is 1.0022 and in the range of 1.0022 - 1.0037 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0058, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9964 - 0.9945 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 29. In this case, the first potential target is 0.9915.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9998 Take profit: 1.0020

Buy: 1.0037 Take profit: 1.0056

Sell: 0.9964 Take profit: 0.9947

Sell: 0.9943 Take profit: 0.9915

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.41, 113.15, 112.95, 112.57, 112.35, 112.04 and 111.87. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 28. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 112.57 - 112.35 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 112.04. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.87, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.95 - 113.15 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 113.41.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.95 Take profit: 113.15

Buy: 113.17 Take profit: 113.40

Sell: 112.55 Take profit: 113.35

Sell: 112.33 Take profit: 112.05

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3367, 1.3343, 1.3300, 1.3272, 1.3225, 1.3199, 1.3164, 1.3149, 1.3116 and 1.3070. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 28 and the price also forms the potential for the top of December 4. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.3164 - 1.3149. In this case, the target is 1.3116. The potential value for the downward trend is considered the level of 1.3070, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3272 - 1.3300 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced development of the ascending structure. In this case, the target is 1.3343. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3367, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 28, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3300

Buy: 1.3303 Take profit: 1.3340

Sell: 1.3225 Take profit: 1.3200

Sell: 1.3197 Take profit: 1.3164

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For the Australian dollar / dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7506, 0.7457, 0.7425, 0.7383, 0.7337, 0.7314 and 0.7279. Here, we are following the rising structure of November 27. At the moment, the price is in the correction. We continue the upward movement after the breakdown of 0.7383. In this case, the target is 0.7425 and the breakdown of which will allow us to expect a movement to 0.7457, near this level is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7506, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 0.7337 - 0.7314. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7279 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of November 27.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7385 Take profit: 0.7425

Buy: 0.7427 Take profit: 0.7455

Sell: 0.7335 Take profit: 0.7316

Sell: 0.7311 Take profit: 0.7280

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 128.70, 128.36, 128.15, 127.68, 127.43, 127.08 and 126.88. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of November 29. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 127.68 - 127.43 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 127.08. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.88, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 128.15 - 128.36 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 128.70 and this level is the key support for the bottom.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.15 Take profit: 128.34

Buy: 128.38 Take profit: 128.70

Sell: 127.66 Take profit: 127.47

Sell: 127.40 Take profit: 127.10

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 144.60, 144.10, 143.82, 143.59, 143.15, 142.80, 142.55 and 141.98. Here, we are following the downward structure of November 28th. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 143.15. In this case, the target is 142.80 and in the range of 142.80 - 142.55 is the consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.98, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 142.55.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 143.59 - 143.82 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 144.10 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of November 28. Its price passage will have to form an upward structure of 144.60.

The main trend is the downward cycle of November 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.60 Take profit: 143.80

Buy: 143.82 Take profit: 144.10

Sell: 143.15 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 142.55 Take profit: 142.00

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Bitcoin analysis for December 05, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, BTC has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $3.738. Most recently, I have found the rejection from the Ichimoku cloud (resistance), which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that BTC is trading below the resistance trendline, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.691 and at the price of $3.490.

Support/Resistance

$3.832 – Intraday resistance

$3.691– Intraday support

$3.691 – Objective target 1

$3.500 – Objective target 2

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GBP/USD analysis for December 05, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2736. According to the M15 time – frame, I found out that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and above Kijun- sen and Tenkan-sen, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found on the point and figure chart that there is a triple top formation created, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities above the 1.2750. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.2812 (pivot R1) and at the price of 1.2915 (Pivot R2).

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EUR/USD analysis for December 05, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1318. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found rejection of the yesterday's low at the price of 1.1318, which is a sign that sellers don't have power for further downward continuation. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of the strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1415.

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Exclusive: Chinese Unipec is preparing to set a record for the purchase of oil in the US

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The Chinese oil giant Unipec plans to resume deliveries of American oil to China by March, after the leaders of the two powers, the United States and China, were able to reach preliminary agreements at the G20 summit, according to three sources.

Sources said that Unipec - a commercial unit of the state-owned refinery Sinopec - will import US oil by March 1, which marks the end of the 90-day negotiation period agreed by the leaders of the two largest economies in the world. Oil imports ceased in October amid escalating trade conflict. Now, Chinese buyers will rush to buy oil during this window, because no one can guarantee that the parties will end up in "combat" actions. Oil prices are currently low, so it is economically feasible to purchase oil and store it as inventory. It is unclear how much oil Unipec will buy from the United States, but one source said that the company intends to acquire a record amount of oil in January. China set a previous record in January 2018.

One source said that Unipec may charter VLCC Manifa to load US crude this month. Another said that the company had pre-ordered VLCC to load oil in the US in January and would make a 45-50 day flight to China for $ 8.4 million. In general, tensions between the two countries have eased, but it is difficult to predict what will happen after March, even taking into account the fact that each of the parties is interested in reaching a mutual agreement.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for December 5, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite volatile and corrective while pushing lower gradually towards 1.2700 area with a daily close. GBP has been weighed down by the Brexit nerves. Despite upbeat economic reports from the UK, GBP is struggling to gain momentum over USD ahead of NFP and the highly probable rate hike in the coming days.

The Brexit deal has been in the limelight for a few weeks now that pushed GBP lower. GBP suffered a blow after a resignation of the Brexit minister. Bank of England's Governor Carney recently warned that Brexit would cause greater damage to the UK economy than to the EU economy. He also stated that Britain is still not 100% ready for trading according to World Trade Organization's rules which might have immediate impact on the economy after Brexit. Additionally, Parliament has rejected Prime Minister May's proposal as she lost votes recently which might lead to PLAN B of the Brexit deal, leading to certain changes in the main terms. Today Services PMI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 52.5 from the previous figure of 52.2. Besides, FPC Meeting Minutes are going to be published where in-depth financial conditions in the UK and a further decision on Financial Stability are going to be discussed that is expected to havea slight impact on the overall UK economy at the current stage.

On the USD side, ahead of NFP and a probable rate hike this month, the economic reports have been quite mixed that encouraged gains on the USD side, sustaining the overall bearish momentum despite sudden spikes in the market. Today FOMC Member Brainard is going to speak about the key interest rate decision and future monetary policy. The speech is expected to contribute to further gains of USD. Though the NFP reports are expected to show mixed results, any positive outcome may lead to more impulsiveness on the USD side in the future.

Meanwhile, GBP is expected to struggle further to regain its momentum over USD. Any positive reading of the US economic reports and events may lead to further bearish pressure in the pair with greater sustainability and non-volatile bearish trend in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite volatile but bearish with the recent momentum which lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.2700 area with a daily close. Recently the price has formed Bullish Divergence which might propmt the price to push higher towards 1.2930-1.3000 resistance area in the coming days or else a daily close below 1.2700 is expected to push the price much lower towards 1.2500 area in the future. As the price remains below 1.30 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2500-50, 1.2700

RESISTANCE: 1.2780, 1.2930, 1.30

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 5. The pound has broken important support.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading session on December 4, the GBP / USD pair lost only about 10 bp, but broke through the minima of the two previous downward waves, thereby indicating readiness to continue the decline. Thus, the current wave pattern has undergone certain changes and has acquired a rather complicated look. The internal wave counting of a new wave already looks rather non-standard. Given this fact, it can be assumed that in the future it will be necessary to repeatedly refine the wave marking. Now, it is expected for the decline to continue in the pair.

Shopping goals:

1.2935 - 50.0% Fibonacci

1.2991 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2637 - 261.8% Fibonacci (senior grid)

1.2566 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD continues to build the downward wave a. Thus, now I recommend very cautious sales, as this wave can end at any moment, and the whole wave pattern can get an even more complex look. Much, as before, will depend on the news background and the final results of Brexit. Immediate targets for declines are 1.2637 and 1.2566.

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