EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 28. The further direction will depend on the results of the G20

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The situation remained unchanged, as well as the technical picture. At the moment, it is best to return to long positions on a false breakout from the level of 1.1348, after updating the low of yesterday, or on a rebound from larger support of 1.1317. The main task of buyers will be to return to the resistance of 1.1394, which will break through the upper limit of the new downward channel and continue the growth of the euro in the area of the highs of 1.1430 and 1.1460, where I recommend taking the profit.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The main direction in the pair will depend on the results of the G20 summit and on whether the US and China will sign a trade agreement. If signed, the bears in EUR/USD can return to the market. The formation of a false breakout today in the resistance area of 1.1394 will be the first signal for the sale of the euro. However, the main task will be the breakdown and consolidation below the support of 1.1348, which will lead EUR/USD to new lows of 1.1317 and 1.1286, where I recommend taking the profit. In the case of growth above 1.1394, the area of 1.1430 will be a good level for opening short positions.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility fell sharply before an important summit, which does not give signals to enter the market.

analytics5d15b7fa80c45.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days – yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days – green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 28/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Jay Clayton confirmed that Ethereum and other similar cryptocurrencies under US law are not securities.

Last September Coin Center collaborated with US representative Ted Buddha to send a signed letter to Clayton asking if he agrees with the approach to Ethereum, SEC Director of Corporate Finance, William Hinman. As Cointelegraph reported in June last year, Hinman said in a speech that ETH "in its current state" - unlike its distribution via ICO - will not be regulated as a security.

In his reply, President Clayton agreed that the definition of a digital resource as security was not "static" and could, therefore, change over time.

He further stated that a digital asset, which is initially security, could change its purpose over time "if the digital asset is later offered and sold in such a way that it will no longer meet this definition".

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has complete the five wave advance to the upside at the level of $362.30 and has started the deeper corrective cycle of the higher degree. The local low was made at the level of $275.41, which was important technical support and now the price is trying to bounce from it. The most important level is the technical resistance located at $320.73 and only if this level is clearly violated, the bulls have a chance to resume the uptrend.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $399.14

WR2 - $359.00

WR1 - $340.76

Weekly Pivot - $299.53

WS1 - $285.30

WS2 - $243.70

WS3 - $227.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

analytics5d15a7fa4b31f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 28/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The last series of appreciation on the cryptocurrency market was initiated by the latest Facebook project, which announced the will to offer its own Libra cryptocurrency. This attracted more interest in the market and retail investors who supported the price increase. Traders are also looking for alternatives to traditional markets such as gold and US bonds due to worries about the weakening global economy and trade tensions between the US and China. However, the Thursday's unexpected depreciation shows that Bitcoin - like the instruments in many other asset classes - can suddenly reverse even the strongest trend.

Technical Overview:

Thursday's session is unquestionably the worst in Bitcoin's performance since December 2017, when it was suddenly moving down from historical maxima. First, on Wednesday, Bitcoin recorded a temporary flash crash, which within 15 minutes led to a drop in value by 8%, then throughout the whole of Thursday continued to decline, finally testing the level of $10,400. On the daily chart, a down candle with a range of -16% was created, which is the largest one-day slip for 30 months. In this way, it was possible to bear up to three days of increases in one day.

At the beginning of this week, the BTC exchange rate tested 18-month highs just below the level of $13,698, while in the second half of the week it definitely loses. The largest cryptocurrency available in circulation is in a strong uptrend since the beginning of April, gaining 260% since then, but it still lags behind the historical highs of around 20,000 dollars achieved in December 2017.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,368

WR2 - $12,738

WR1 - $12,143

Weekly Pivot - $10,500

WS1 - $9,956

WS2 - $8,295

WS3 - $7,678

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

analytics5d15a59a5a94f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 28 - 2019

analytics5d159c57db4c3.png

GBP/JPY challenged short-term important resistance at 137.13 and failed to break clear above that keeps us in a dead-lock for now. It is more favorable that wave 2 has completed with the test of 135.35. At the moment, wave 3 now is developing for an ultimate break above the 148.87 peak.

We need a clear break higher that we still have not seen. This failure to break higher keep a door open for a final spike below 135.35 for a move closer to 134.50 to complete wave 2 and set the stage for the next impulsive rally in wave 3.

So ,for now, we will just have to stay patient and see whether a final spike lower is needed or the next impulsive rally already is in motion.

R3: 138.26

R2: 137.79

R1: 137.44

Pivot: 136.65

S1: 136.44

S2: 136.23

S3: 135.95

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 134.65 or upon a clear break above 137.13

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, June 28, 2019

analytics5d15a4c587864.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Italian Prelim CPI m/m, Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, French Prelim CPI m/m, French Consumer Spending m/m, and German Import Prices m/m. The US will also publish the economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectation, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1427. Strong Resistance: 1.1420. Original Resistance: 1.1409. Inner Sell Area: 1.1398. Target Inner Area: 1.1371. Inner Buy Area: 1.1344. Original Support: 1.1333. Strong Support: 1.1322. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1315. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, June 28, 2019

analytics5d15a4423e8de.jpg

In Asia, Japan will release the Housing Starts y/y, Prelim Industrial Production m/m, Unemployment Rate, and Tokyo Core CPI y/y. The US will also publish some economic data such as Revised UoM Inflation Expectation, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Chicago PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3 : 108.28. Resistance. 2: 108.07. Resistance. 1: 107.86. Support. 1: 107.59. Support. 2: 107.38. Support. 3: 107.17. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 28/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has been trading just above the technical support at the level of 1.2652. The local high was made at the level of 1.2706, but it is not enough for the bulls to continue the move up. Please notice, that any violation of the support level will lead to an even deeper correction towards the support seen at the level of 1.2605 and the RSI indicator is already below its fifty levels. The larget time frame trend is still down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3080

WR2 - 1.2903

WR1 - 1.2852

Weekly Pivot - 1.2673

WS1 - 1.2612

WS2 - 1.2435

WS3 - 1.2368

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections. Nevertheless, please notice that the larget time frame trend is down, so all the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the downtrend.

analytics5d15a3a55ae88.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for June 28, 2019

analytics5d159ff6691d7.jpg

Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is almost ready to drop lower sharply into wave c of a potential a-b-c drop that began from 1.1412 levels earlier. We have again presented the hourly chart here to label the counter-trend drop towards 1.1270 levels. After forming highs at 1.1412 levels earlier, the single currency pair had dropped lower towards 1.1344 levels before drifting sideways into a potential triangle formation. With prices being out of the triangle now, it seems that wave b might be in place at 1.1376 levels. If the above structure is correct, we should see a wave c drop lower towards at least 1.1270 levels which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 support of the previous rally between 1.1180 through 1.1412 levels respectively. As an alternate probability, a push above 1.1412 would mean that bulls still remain in control and looking towards fresh highs. Major support remains at 1.1180 levels and prices need to drop below that to confirm a major bearish reversal. For now, expect a counter-trend drop towards 1.1270 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short from 1.1380/1.1400 levels earlier, stop above 1.1412, target is 1.1270

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 28 - 2019

analytics5d159ade5d7b4.png

We expect that short-term support near 122.11 will protect the downside for the next push higher towards 123.18 and 124.16.

As we predicted, wave II completed with the test of 120.75 and wave III higher towards at least 129.59 now is developing. At 129.59 the ongoing rally will be equal in length to the January to March rally from 118.72 to 127.50. However, a more likely target would be a 161.8% extension in wave III of wave I which calls for a rally to 135.02.

In the short-term, only an unexpected break below support at 121.62 will frustrate our bullish outlook.

R3: 123.75

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.81

Pivot: 122.38

S1: 122.18

S2: 121.85

S3: 121.62

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 with our stop placed at 121.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 28/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has been trading in a narrow consolidation zone located between the levels of 1.1347 - 1.1406. There is still a chance for a move up if the support at the level of 1.1347 holds, but if it will not, then the next support is seen at the level of 1.1268. Please notice the RSI indicator is barely holding above the level of fifty, so the technical support reaction to the bearish pressure is very important and it is worth to keep an eye on it.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1662

WR2 - 1.1520

WR1 - 1.1459

Weekly Pivot - 1.1309

WS1 - 1.1258

WS2 - 1.1120

WS3 - 1.1064

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections.

analytics5d15a2a9be7fa.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of GBP/USD on June 28. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The pound needs certainty, which is not foreseen

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d158a02012a3.png

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: -85.8169

The currency pair pound/dollar could not overcome the Murray level of "+1/8" - 1.2756, thus, the bulls showed their strength at the moment, or rather the lack of it. And the pound sterling showed once again what is clear to almost any trader: with the unfinished Brexit process, without the Prime Minister and the leader of the ruling party, with complete uncertainty about the future of the country and future relations with the European Union, there is no question of any long-term strengthening. And we believe that this reaction of traders is absolutely logical. The British currency does not even particularly react to various kinds of information related to the candidates for the post of Prime Minister, who actively give interviews so that voters can better understand the vector of the direction of the foreign policy of everyone, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. What is the meaning of this information, if it is only the nature of promises, nothing more? Johnson has already promised to revise the current agreement with the EU, to which Brussels responded with a clear rejection of any new negotiations and revisions of the deal reached with Theresa May. At the weekend, there will be a meeting between the leaders of China and America, within the framework of which certain agreements can be reached on a trade deal. This information may affect the US dollar exchange rate, but for the GBP/USD pair, this information will be secondary. At the moment, the bears have already fixed the pair below the moving average, which is the first step in the direction of a new downward trend. The bulls failed to form even a short-term upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2634

S2 – 1.2573

S3 – 1.2512

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2695

R2 – 1.2756

R3 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair failed to overcome the level of 1.2756, which led to a consolidation below the moving average. We now recommend a cautious sale of the pound sterling with a target of 1.2634, as the bears have not yet confirmed their intention to a new campaign to the south.

It will be possible to buy the pound/dollar pair in small lots with targets of 1.2756 and 1.2817 after the price is fixed back above the moving average. In this case, the bulls will receive a new opportunity to form an upward trend, but they have little strength now.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on June 28. The forecast for the "Regression Channels". The foreign exchange market is fully focused

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d1589b5b9d92.png

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: -0.4417

The EUR / USD pair continues to be adjusted for the third trading day in a row and at the same time, it cannot work out the moving. Today is not only the last working day of the week but also the last working day of the month. The G20 summit starts today, but its results will be known only at the weekend. The talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will be held on Saturday. Thus, today, traders are unlikely to show active trade, since it makes little sense to risk before such an important event as the meeting of the leaders of China and the United States. Talking once again about the importance of the meeting between Trump and Jinping makes no sense. The only thing we would like to add is that we should not expect too much from this meeting. Yes, Trump wants to sign a trade agreement as soon as possible and on the terms that are beneficial to him. But China has already shown that it does not agree to concede in all States. Therefore, we believe that there will be little progress in the negotiations. Today, there will be several important macroeconomic reports that can have an impact on the foreign exchange market. First, it is the publication of the preliminary value of inflation for June in the eurozone. According to experts, this figure will remain unchanged compared to the previous month – 1.2%. Second, the changes in personal income and spending of the American population in May. Both of these reports are not paramount but can still cause a reaction from traders.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1353

S2 – 1.1292

S3 – 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1414

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its downward correction to the moving average line. Thus, it is recommended to wait for the reversal of the Heiken Ashi up or rebound from the moving and buy the pair again with the target level of 1.1414.

It is recommended to buy the US currency after traders consolidate below the moving average line, which will change the trend to a downward one, with the first target of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD pair on June 28, 2019

GBP / USD pair

The British pound closed on Thursday with a 15-point drop after turning down from the balance line on a daily scale chart. Fixing of the price under the price channel line happened two days ago and now, the price is fixed under the balance lines and MACD on the four-hour chart, technical pressure has increased. We consider the pound will move towards the target levels of 1.2610 and 1.2530 as the main scenario.

The price increase to the MACD line at 1.2807on the daily chart is possible after the price exits from yesterday's top at 1.2724. There is a 20% probability of such a development of events.

analytics5d158ff941506.png

analytics5d15900df01b0.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching support, potential bounce!

analytics5d1595e0982c1.jpg

GBPUSD is approaching support where we might see a bounce in price.

Entry: 1.2645

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss : 1.2525

Why it's good : Horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 1.2779

Why it's good: Horizontal swing overlap resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

analytics5d1595b82c52c.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal!

analytics5d15954305938.jpg

Price approaching its resistance and we expect to see a reversal to its support at 0.6976.

Entry : 0.7012

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Stop Loss : 0.7063

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6976

Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support

analytics5d15951be09c0.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY break out, potential drop !

analytics5d159443f1be3.jpg

Price is approaching 1st support at 107.49 and could breakout the level and drop further.

Entry : 107.49

Why it's good : horizontal pullback support

61.8% Fibonacci extension

50% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 106.958

Why it's good :61.8% Fibonacci extension

analytics5d159423c013e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 28, 2019

EUR/USD

The third day began, as the euro hardly moves from its place in anticipation of decisions from the fields of the G20 and the EU summit. As a result, the indicator lines on the H4 chart are approaching the current price, the oscillator lines on the daily and H4 continue to decline. Now, to create a signal in the medium-term sale, the price is enough to gain a foothold under the MACD line on the four-hour chart (1.1340), which is very close to the lows of the last days. The goal of reducing 1.1234 – the area of coincidence of the nested line of the price channel and the MACD line on the daily scale chart.

But, despite the strengthening of the declining version of the order to 65%, the possibility of growth of 35% is high enough to be realized in the movement to 1.1514 – the Fibonacci level of 50% on the daily chart (coincides with the top of January 2019). The growth can consist of two stages: the movement to the Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1445 and the movement to 1.1514. It remains to wait for developments. Again, on the G20, preliminary events are still developing in favor of the dollar.

analytics5d1590b4767df.png

analytics5d1590cba2d28.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 28, 2019

USD / JPY pair

The dollar continues to hold a dominant position against the yen, following the price increase on Wednesday with the consolidation above the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the four-hour chart. Yesterday, the price remained above these supports and as of the moment, the price is testing the MACD line from above.

For continued growth, the price must overcome the top of yesterday at 108.17. At this moment, the marlin oscillator signal line will move to the zone of positive numbers, which will greatly enhance the upward potential of the pair. The immediate goal of 109.02 is the nested line of the price channel of the daily TF. Furthermore, there can be a struggle against the resistance of the MACD line at 109.35 on the daily, which will form a trend of medium-term growth if successful.

Until yesterday's maximum is overcome, a price drop to the trend line of 106.90 is possible and a fixation below it will lead to a further decline to the line of the growing green channel at 105.58. The double convergence on the daily chart may be broken.

analytics5d158f3ac34fb.png

analytics5d158f513e4af.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GOLD: Trading system "Regression Channels" on June 28th. Gold resumed growth on the eve of the G-20 summit

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d158a5003132.png

Technical details:

Older linear regression channel: direction - up.

Younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 82.5032

The most famous precious metal in the world failed to reach the moving average line as part of correction by just a few dozen points and completed it. The most interesting thing is that the euro and pound currencies have not shown growth in the last two days. Thus, gold has risen in price and once again, the US dollar did not depreciate. Perhaps, this is the market reaction to the future meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which is still known how it will conclude, given the impulsivity of the first and the caution of the second. If the meeting is successful, the demand for gold may weaken as this will mean an increase in the chances of signing a trade deal and end the trade war accordingly. Otherwise, the US dollar may continue to decline against major currencies, while gold will continue to rise. Anyway, now we should wait until the end of the G-20 summit and its results. From a technical point of view, the unambiguous uptrend is maintained for the GOLD instrument, which is evident on both linear regression channels and other technical indicators. Thus, it is not recommended to consider selling instrument below the moving average line before fixing it.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1406.25

S2 - 1390.63

S3 - 1375.00

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,421.88

R2 - 1437.50

R3 - 1453.13

Trading recommendations:

Gold completed a round of downward correction. Thus, it is recommended to trade again for an increase with targets of 1.421.88 and 1.437.50 before the new turn of the Heiken-Ashi indicator is down.

Sell orders will become relevant not earlier than overcoming the moving traders with the first targets of 1375.00 and 1359.38 and small lots since both channels of linear regression are directed upward.

In addition to the technical picture, traders should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The older linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on June 28

Forecast for June 28:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

analytics5d1577014e663.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1452, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1388, 1.1353, 1.1334 and 1.1305. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending structure of June 18. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the passage of the price to the noise range 1.1388 - 1.1404. In this case, the target is 1.1428. Consolidation is near this level. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 1.1452. After reaching which, we expect a departure to the correction.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.1353 - 1.1334. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 1.1305. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 18, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1405 Take profit: 1.1428

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1452

Sell: 1.1353 Take profit: 1.1335

Sell: 1.1332 Take profit: 1.1305

analytics5d1577372b3d5.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2906, 1.2842, 1.2798, 1.2745, 1.2668, 1.2636 and 1.2608. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms the potential for the bottom of June 25. We expect a resumption of the upward movement after the breakdown of the level of 1.2745. In this case, the first target is 1.2798. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range 1.2798 - 1.2842. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target - 1.2906. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 1.2668 - 1.2636. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2608. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 18, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2745 Take profit: 1.2798

Buy: 1.2800 Take profit: 1.2842

Sell: 1.2668 Take profit: 1.2636

Sell: 1.2634 Take profit: 1.2608

analytics5d157751b9afe.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9847, 0.9824, 0.9769, 0.9738, 0.9688 and 0.9651. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle of June 19. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at level of 0.9688. Here, the potential target is 0.9651. From the corridor 0.9688 - 0.9651, we expect to go to the correction zone.

Consolidation is possible in the corridor 0.9738 - 0.9769. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a protracted correction. Here, the goal is 0.9824. The range 0.9824 - 0.9847 is a key support for the downward structure. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of June 19, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9738 Take profit: 0.9767

Buy : 0.9773 Take profit: 0.9824

Sell: 0.9686 Take profit: 0.9653

analytics5d15776ba68c6.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.77, 107.15, 106.65, 106.35 and 105.94. Here, the price is in deep correction and forms a pronounced potential for the top of June 25. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of 107.15. Here, the target is 106.65. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 106.35. Consolidation is near this value. For now, the potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 105.94. After reaching which, we expect to go into correction.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 107.77 - 108.12. The breakdown of the latter value will begin the development of an upward trend on the H1 scale. In this case, the potential target is 108.70. Price consolidation is near this level.

The main trend: the downward cycle of June 17, the formation of potential movement for the top of June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.78 Take profit: 108.10

Buy : 108.14 Take profit: 108.70

Sell: 107.15 Take profit: 106.67

Sell: 106.62 Take profit: 106.37

analytics5d1577854225a.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3180, 1.3142, 1.3115, 1.3069, 1.3027, 1.3001 and 1.2961. Here, we continue to monitor the local downward structure of June 25. Continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown at level 1.3069. In this case, the goal is 1.3027. Price consolidation is in the corridor 1.3027 - 1.3001. For the potential value to the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2961. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3115 - 1.3142. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3180. This level is the key resistance for the development of the upward structure. Its breakdown will allow to count on the movement to the potential target - 1.3235.

The main trend is a local downward structure from June 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3115 Take profit: 1.3140

Buy : 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3180

Sell: 1.3067 Take profit: 1.3027

Sell: 1.3001 Take profit: 1.2961

analytics5d157c057f9f4.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7097, 0.7077, 0.7039, 0.7012, 0.6972, 0.6954 and 0.6927. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 18. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown at the level of 0.7012. In this case, the goal is 0.7039. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.7040 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7077. For the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 0.7097. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the corridor of 0.7077 - 0.7097, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 0.6972 - 0.6954. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.6927. This level is a key support to the top.

The main trend is the upward structure on June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7012 Take profit: 0.7037

Buy: 0.7041 Take profit: 0.7077

Sell : 0.6972 Take profit : 0.6955

Sell: 0.6952 Take profit: 0.6930

analytics5d157c23082d8.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 123.73, 123.49, 123.11, 122.82, 122.31, 122.08 and 121.74. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of June 21. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of 122.82. In this case, the goal is 123.11. Near this level is price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 123.11 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level of 123.49. We consider the level 123.73 to be a potential value to the top. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the corridor 122.31 - 122.08. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.74. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of June 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 122.82 Take profit: 123.10

Buy: 123.14 Take profit: 123.49

Sell: 122.30 Take profit: 122.10

Sell: 122.06 Take profit: 121.76

analytics5d157c3ff1a7a.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 138.04, 137.60, 137.30, 136.92, 136.09, 135.77 and 135.32. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the potential for the top of June 18. For the continuation of the movement and the potential value to the top, we consider the level of 138.04. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 137.60.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 136.09 - 135.77. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. Here, the potential target is 135.32.

The main trend - the formation of potential for the top of June 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.92 Take profit: 137.30

Buy: 137.32 Take profit: 137.60

Sell: 136.09 Take profit: 135.77

Sell: 135.76 Take profit: 135.34

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How will Trump's "B" plan affect the dollar?

analytics5d14b0dc93427.jpg

A few hours remain before the start of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. The closer the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, the stronger the unrest in the market, which is still weak in currency quotes, but it is a matter of time. After stagnation, the market usually explodes.

Now traders have taken a wait. Despite the fact that it is extremely difficult to predict how the meeting of the leaders of the two largest economies in the world will end, the market for the most part hopes for a positive outcome. At a minimum, investors expect the US and China to resume trade negotiations. The outcome of the summit will be of great importance for the currency markets, as well as for the Fed. In the case of a trade agreement, which is unlikely, the American Central Bank will no longer need to reduce the rate.

It took a little more than half a year when the financial markets were agitated by the announcement of a truce in the US-China trade war. This happened on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. This is partly why investors have high hopes for the summit in Japan.

Trump's backup plan

On the eve of White House officials in private conversation with Reuters reported that the official Washington does not plan to put any conditions on the issue of tariff expansion. However, Donald Trump, apparently, has his own point of view and his plan "B". The American president speaks positively about his future meeting with his Chinese counterpart, and does not rule out the introduction of fees. If he does not like something, then all imports of the Middle Kingdom will be taxed. This is reminiscent of the negotiations at gunpoint, in which China had previously refused to participate.

Trump, as a good chess player, thinks a few moves ahead, and a new portion of criticism of Powell suggests that he is beginning to worry about relations with Europe. The US President believes that the place of the head of the Fed should be occupied by Mario Draghi, who initiated the currency war. Powell was unable to recognize the actions of the enemy, which, according to Trump, is a sign of a weak mind and naivety.

In fact, the "soft" rhetoric of the ECB is primarily associated with the weakness of the eurozone economy. In September, the regulator may reduce the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%, and in July, will adjust the wording about staying at the same level until at least the first half of 2020.

The ECB will resume QE and will buy assets of 30 billion euros per month over five quarters. This opinion is shared by 42% of respondents. However, when both regulators are on the threshold of mitigation, the dynamics of the EUR / USD pair is determined by its depth. Most European funds put on a weak dollar.

Opinion of funds against the dollar

The largest of them, Amundi, is confident that the dollar will inevitably adjust as the US Central Bank shifts towards a more "dovish" policy. In Aberdeen Standard, we saw that the "passing winds" of the dollar in the form of high yield treasuries and strong economic growth in the United States are transforming into calm. According to UBS Global Wealth Management, the "American" may continue its downward trend if the upcoming summit in Japan this weekend fails to ease tensions in world trade.

analytics5d14b20d932fa.png

Note that the dollar strength indicator fell 1.5% this month. The longest rally in the US currency over the past four years has been interrupted due to the fact that the Fed has signaled a quick policy easing. The level of yield of state bonds last week reached a minimum value since 2016, narrowing the premium to similar securities of Germany and Japan.

"We expect the dollar to lose a little more of its recent strength and further worsen its position. The market has become very one-sided, pro-dollar, in terms of sentiment and positioning. The dollar "bullish" cycle seems very mature, and with an abundance of long speculative positions on the dollar, further correction seems very likely, "

Taking into account the fact that Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan simultaneously reduced their 10-year Treasury rates forecast for the end of the year from 2.8% to 1.75%, Eurocurrency is not to be envied. Although the G20 summit can change a lot, but for now EUR / USD does not want to go beyond the range of $ 1.13-1.14.

analytics5d14b1af0356d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: rumors of the G20, German inflation and US GDP

On the eve of the G-20 summit, traders are noticeably nervous when responding to conflicting rumors. The stakes are really high - according to the results of the G20, the trade war will either break out with a new force, or end with the signing of a large-scale transaction. In the first case, the superpowers will provoke a "domino effect" by launching a mechanism for mitigating the parameters of monetary policy by the leading central banks of the world. First of all, we are talking about the Fed and (possibly) the ECB. And if the likelihood of a rate cut is estimated at 100% (especially with the negative outcome of the Trump and Xi Jinping talks), then the situation with the European regulator is not that simple. Therefore, any rumors about the continuing differences between Beijing and Washington are playing against the dollar. And vice versa - the positive news in this context is quite strong support for the US currency.

analytics5d14e318e7ec0.jpg

Today's price fluctuations eur / usd eloquently confirmed this pattern. During the Asian session on Thursday, the price dropped to the middle of the 13th figure amid rumors that the United States and China reached a "preliminary truce" in the trade war ahead of the summit and the meeting of the leaders of these countries. This information made it possible to revise forecasts for the future actions of the Fed, at least about the extent of monetary policy easing. The dollar index bumbled up, changing the configuration in the major dollar pairs. However, at the start of the European session, an official comment appeared from the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China. He stated that the Chinese government "does not know anything" about any truce of truce allegedly entered into by the United States and the People's Republic of China. This remark became a "cold shower" for dollar bulls,

Despite such fluctuations, on the whole, the pair is within the price corridor limited by 1.1290 marks (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart) and 1.1420 (the top BB indicator line on the same timeframe). Traders are unlikely to allow themselves to go beyond this price range before the announcement of the outcome of the G20 summit, or to be more precise, before the announcement of the outcome of the negotiations between the leaders of the United States and China.

However, according to a number of currency strategists, in the medium term, the dollar will still remain under pressure, regardless of the preliminary agreements between Trump and Jinping. For two years, the US currency has consistently strengthened, retaining its position thanks to two pillars: first, this is Trump's fiscal stimulus policy, and second, the Fed's tight monetary policy. At the moment, the positive effect of fiscal incentives has almost dried up, after which inflation indicators began to slowly but surely slide down. On the other hand, recently the negative consequences of the trade war with China have become more clearly manifested. According to Moody's, the US GDP this year will only grow to 2.3% (the previous forecast is 2.5%), whereas in 2020 it is expected to grow to 1.7%. In general, if the States impose 25 percent duties on the remaining Chinese products worth $ 300 billion (and Beijing responds with mirror measures), then global GDP growth will drop to 2.7% and, accordingly, slacken the US economy. That is why the dollar is so sensitive to preliminary rumors about the prospects for US-China relations.

The European currency, in turn, today received support from macroeconomic statistics. German inflation surprised by quite strong numbers, which became a precursor to the growth of European inflation (release is scheduled for tomorrow). Thus, in monthly terms, the indicator moved away from the lows of the year and rose to 0.3% (forecast - 0.2%). On an annualized basis, a positive trend was also recorded: the index reached 1.6%, while the growth forecast was up to 1.4%. The regional reports of the German CPI reflected a general improvement in inflation rates in annual terms.

analytics5d14e3067c4be.jpg

This result is a positive signal for the ECB, as today the inflation forecast remains unchanged - at least for the "locomotive of the European economy" - Germany. The market reacted quite restrained to this release: the approaching summit does not allow traders to focus on other fundamental factors. Another release that was already published in the USA was also ignored. This is a final assessment of the growth of the American economy in the first quarter of this year. The price component of GDP was slightly revised upwards (from 0.8% to 0.9%), but this fact was ignored by traders. Firstly, even with the revision of this indicator, it still remains at fairly low values (the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2016), and secondly, other inflation indicators also leave much to be desired. Therefore, the minimal improvement in the GDP Price Index did not change the general mood of the market.

Thus, the market froze in anticipation of the main event of the month, and maybe a year. All other fundamental factors play a secondary role. Judging by the reaction of the market to preliminary rumors about the "peace" of China and the United States, in the coming days we will expect quite strong volatility. The motion vector of the pair eur / usd will depend on the outcome of the negotiations of the leaders of the superpowers. If the parties can make a deal (or issue a kind of "protocol of intent"), then the dollar will receive strong support and, possibly, resume rally across the market. Otherwise, the pair finally consolidates in the area of the 14th figure, occupying a new price niche.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. June 27th. Results of the day. US GDP in the first quarter was + 3.1%

4-hour time frame

analytics5d155bb5701c5.png

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 92p - 95p - 37p - 68p - 43p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 67p (72p).

On Thursday, June 27, most traders expected that US GDP would be lower than expected in the first quarter. The reason for these expectations was the whole package of failed macroeconomic statistics in recent weeks. However, the real value of GDP was + 3.1%, which is fully consistent with experts' forecasts. Since there were no discrepancies between real and predicted values, the reaction of the Forex market to this most important report did not follow. As a result, we have more than a quiet end of the week and month, which was extremely saturated with fundamental events, meetings of central banks, speeches of their heads, as well as publications of macroeconomic reports. In the last two trading days of June, another very important event will take place - the G20 Summit, which is not so much interesting, as much as the venue for a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Many believe that the results of negotiations between the leaders of China and the United States can shed light on the topic of concluding a trade agreement between these countries. Thus, the result of this meeting may be either the introduction of new trade duties by Trump against Chinese imports, or significant progress in the negotiations, which both sides will definitely mark, since it makes no sense to hide such information. Also, the outcome of this meeting will depend on the Fed's decision on interest rates and stimulating the economy. Jerome Powell has repeatedly noted the high degree of risk associated specifically with trade wars. It is reasonable to assume that if one of them is completed, then there will be no point in easing monetary policy.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD pair continues to adjust. Thus, long positions remain relevant for the euro / dollar pair with the target of 1.1438, and MACD reversal upwards or rebound from the Kijun-Sen line will indicate the completion of the downward correction.

It is possible to sell a pair of euro / dollar in small lots, if the bears will be able to gain a foothold below the critical line, with targets 1,1296 and 1,1241. In this case, the initiative for the pair EUR / USD may return to the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture, we should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com