BITCOIN Analysis for June 28, 2018

Bitcoin is still in a corrective phase since it broke below $6,500 area. The market seems quite indecisive with low liquidity. After the recent plunge, the price is expected to climb higher for a certain period before showing any impulsive momentum on either side of the market. After breaking below $6,500 area, the price is more likely to move lower with a target towards $5,000 area. Nevertheless, certain correction and volatility is expected to persists on its way lower. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to retest $6,500 area before showing further bearish pressure in the short term.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for June 28, 2018

AUD/USD has been quite non-volatile and impulsive, following the bearish bias. As a result, the pair is trading below 0.7350 with a daily close. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair since the recent rate hike by the US Fed from 1.75% to 2.00% that ecouraged a further USD strength against AUD.

This week, Australia posts no macroeconomic reports. Next week, the Reserve Bank of Australia is due to make a policy decision. The benchmark cash rate is widely expected to be unchanged at 1.50%. Moreover, Australia's regulator is going to make a rate statement on the same day which is expected to shed light on a rate hike. Till now, the central bank hasn't dropped any hints about monetary tightening in Australia. However, global investors are betting on the more hawkish stance of RBA in the short term.

On the USD side, today Final GDP report was published with a decrease to 2.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.2%, Unemployment Claims increased significantly to 227k from the previous figure of 218k which was expected to be at 220k, and Final GDP Price Index was increased to 2.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 1.9%. Moreover, today Natural Gas Storage report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 73B from the previous figure of 91B. Besides, FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak today who was quite optimistic in his latest speech. Amid escalating trade tensions between the US and its trade partners, his speech is expected to contribute to further USD gains today.

USD is expected to extend its gain further in the long term. As for a short- and medium-term scenario, AUD is expected to gain certain momentum ahead of the Cash Rate report, which is due next week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite indecisive and showing certain bullish pressure below 0.7350 area after a daily close recently. The dynamic level of 20 EMA has been quite far from the current price position which is expected to attract the price towards the mean leading with retracement. As the price remains below 0.75 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Trading plan for EUR / USD as of June 28, 2018

To be frank, American statistics yesterday was extremely weak. Thus, preliminary data on stock in warehouses of wholesale trade showed that they have been growing for the seventh month in a row, and this time they increased by 0.5%, which was much more than predicted. Also, orders for durable goods have been decreasing for the second month in a row, and now they have decreased by another 0.6%, although this was slightly better than forecasts. However, none of this interested anyone, as market participants continued to sell a single European currency. The second day in a row, representatives of the Bank of England are doing everything possible to bring down the pound, and with it, a single European currency. This time, the head of the Bank of England has already added fuel to the fire. After statements by the representative of the Bank of England that it is still too early to talk about raising the refinancing rate, and also added that the possibility of a resumption of the quantitative easing program has not been ruled out, Mark Carney was waiting for confirmation or refutation of these statements. The head of the Bank of England said that the unpredictability of the consequences of the trade war between the US and Europe jeopardizes the increase in the refinancing rate. In other words, the head of the Bank of England confirmed the words of his colleague. And since the Bank of England does not exclude the possibility of resuming the program of quantitative easing, it means that they are confident that the ECB will continue to extend its quantitative easing program.

Today will be the next representative of the Bank of England. Mark Haldane, who heads the committee on monetary policy, is also waiting for the words about the refinancing rate. If he also declares about the risks and prematureness of raising the refinancing rate, investors will continue to get rid of the pound and the single European currency. In addition, Germany and Italy are issuing preliminary data on inflation, and if the Apennines expect its acceleration from 1.0% to 1.3%, then in the largest economy in Europe, it is expected to slow from 2.2% to 2.1% . Naturally, this can not add optimism to market participants. At the same time, the US data on GDP for the first quarter, which should confirm the fact of accelerating the rate of economic growth from 2.6% to 2.8%. These data will not have a serious effect, since they have already been taken into account in the value of the dollar.

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The euro / dollar currency pair continued its downward movement after the gain from the periodic level of 1.1720. Now we see a slowdown, which is entirely due to the previous rally. Probably assume a temporary fluctuation within 1.1520 / 1.1580.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for June 28. Wave counting is fully processed.

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Analysis of wave counting:

During the trades on June 27, the GBP / USD currency pair lost about 100 percentage points. Thus, the construction of the supposed wave 3, 3, a, is proceeding according to plan. The minimum of the first wave of the new downward momentum is broken, so now there are no visible obstacles to further decrease of the pair in the direction of the calculated marks of 1.2962 and 1.2809, which corresponds to 200.0% and 261.8% of Fibonacci. Wave 2, a, received a very shortened view, which once again proves the strength of the "bearish" market sentiment. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.3054 mark may lead to a small withdrawal of quotations from the minima reached.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3445 - 0.0% Fibonacci (formal goal)

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.3054 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

1.2962 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

1.2809 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The assumed wave 2, 3, a, completed its construction. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the targets of 1.3054 and 1.2962, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% of Fibonacci. To buy in the near future there is no reason to return, because there is no reason to assume now the construction of an upward wave. It is possible only to roll back the achieved maximum within the framework of internal correctional waves in composition of wave 3, 3, a.

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EUR / USD. June 28th. The trade war is not a hindrance to the US dollar

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 126p - 75p - 84p - 86p - 131p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days is 100p (87p).

The trade war between the US and China with the EU continues to gain momentum, countries and the Euroblock continue to consider the possibility of introducing new trade restrictions, and the US dollar continues to grow. One gets the impression that it is the States that have the priority right to impose sanctions on any country in the world, while nobody can answer them. This is how you can interpret what is happening, looking at the chart of the movement of the main currency pair. The trade war concerns both the EU and the US, but only the euro is cheaper. Yesterday's report on changes in the volume of orders for durable goods in America showed a decrease in May by 0.6%. And although this value is better than forecast, it is still a negative trend. However, traders did not even pay attention to this indicator and massively continued to buy up the US currency. Thus, it seems that we are returning to the scenario called "the dollar will go up in any case". Now it's even hard to say that it can stop the US currency from unrestrained strengthening. It is clear that not trivial macroeconomic reports from the EU or America. In the next few days, the currency pair can overcome the minimums of May 29 and June 21, which will allow traders to move the pair down even more forcefully. From a technical point of view, there are no factors that give hope for an upward movement. There is not even a hint of correction - the MACD indicator is pointing down. The price rested on the first support level of 1.1551, and its overcoming will allow the pair to continue free fall.

Trading recommendations:

For the pair EUR / USD, it is recommended to hold open short positions earlier, because there are still no signs of a correction beginning. The objectives are 1.1484 and 1.1446. The signal to shorten the shorts will turn the indicator MACD upward or a pronounced rebound from the level of 1.1551.

Long positions are recommended to be opened in case of a price rebound from the support level of 1.1551 or in case the MACD indicator turns up. However, the strong downward movement should be taken into account, therefore, longs can only be relevant to extremely small lots.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations to the illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen is a red line.

Kijun-sen is a blue line.

Senkou Span A is a light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - a light purple dotted line.

Chinkou Span is a green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 28 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Today, for euro buyers, the first priority will be returning to the resistance level of 1.1578, consolidation on which will lead to a larger corrective upward wave with the renewal of the area 1.1620, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pressure on the euro persists in the first half of the day, only the formation of a false breakout at the support level of 1.1532 will be the first signal for purchases. Otherwise, buying the euro is best for a rebound of 1.1482.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout and a return to the level of 1.1578 or a break with a fix below 1.1532 support will be a good signal for euro sales in order to form a further downtrend and update 1.1482, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.1578 in the morning, selling the euro can be on the rebound from 1.1620.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences on June 28. The American currency is in the lead the second day in a row.

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart executed the fixation under the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1589. As a result, on June 28, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% - 1,1508. The retreat of the pair from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the euro and a return to the correction level of 76.4%. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of further falling towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1415.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from May 29, 2018, and June 14, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair quotes performed a return to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. The pair's exit from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to expect a turn in favor of the EU currency and some growth towards the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1789. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of continuing the fall towards the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Buy EUR / USD will be possible with a target of 1.1589, and with a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 100.0%, if there is a retreat from the Fibo level 1,1508.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be held for 1,1508, as there was a close under the correction level of 76.4%, and with a Stop Loss order above 1.1589.

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Trump talked about limiting investment again. Bank of England gives a disappointing forecast

Released in the first half of the day, data on the European economy adversely affected the euro, which led to another wave of decline in tandem with the US dollar. Down went and the British pound.

According to the report of the statistics agency Insee, the consumer confidence index in France in June this year declined. So, in June the index fell to 97 points from 99 points in May, while a number of economists expected that the index will grow and amount to 100 points.

In the first half of the day also came out data in which there was an increase in the growth of bank lending in the euro area. Such indicators will support corporate investments in the future.

According to the report of the European Central Bank, lending to companies in May compared with the same period last year increased by 3.6%. Let me remind you that in April the growth of crediting companies compared with April 2017 was 3.3%.

As for lending to households, compared with May last year it increased by 2.9%. The monetary aggregate M3 of the eurozone in May 2018, in comparison with May of the last year, grew by 4% after the growth of 3.8% in April. Economists had expected that in May the M3 unit would grow by 3.8%.

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Today's statements by US President Donald Trump further confused the markets. Trump noted that he will focus on using existing laws to limit Chinese investment, and the US administration does not need to look for alternative investment-restriction instruments. Trump also asked the Ministry of Commerce to study the means of export control.

As for the new measures, after studying the situation with China, it became clear that the restriction of investments will extend not only to China but also to a number of other countries.

This was confirmed in his speech by the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. According to him, China does not stand out in matters relating to investment, among other countries, but some countries will pay increased attention.

Euro meanwhile confidently "step down", fully confirming the morning forecast.

The Bank of England today warned of increased risks, which had a negative impact on the British pound, which fell in tandem with the US dollar.

According to the regulator's statement, further efforts are needed from the EU and the UK to reduce the risks of economic malfunction. As for risks, they are primarily related to the US and China, as well as to the debt market of developing countries. The Bank of England is expected to further increase the risks that affect world financial stability.

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Trading plan for the European session on June 27 EUR / USD

analytics5b33204c936ab.pngTo open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The buyers today have several scenarios. The first is to return to resistance level 1.1674, the anchorage on which will lead to a larger upward wave with the update of the weekly maximum near 1.1724. If the pressure on the euro continues in the morning, the second option will consist of a false breakdown of support 1.1620. Otherwise, buying the euro is best for a rebound from 1.1578.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout and a return to the level of 1.1674 will be the first signal to sell the euro for the purpose of breakdown and consolidation below support 1.1620, from which a larger sale of EUR / USD will lead to new lows in the area of 1.1578 and 1.1533, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.1674 in the first half of the day, you can sell the euro on a rebound from 1.1724.

Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for June 28, 2018

USD/CAD has been quite corrective and volatile recently after breaking above the 1.3120 resistance area with a daily close. USD has been dominating CAD since the recent rate hike By the US Fed from 1.75% to 2.00%. Meanwhile, CAD is expected to regain footing.

On the back of lingering trade jitters between the US and Cadana because of looming tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, the pair is likely to trade with higher volatility in the nearest days. Canada's GDP report is due tomorrow. According to flash estimates, Q1 GDP is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3%. So, CAD is currently trying to regain footing. Though Bank of Canada's Governor Poloz did not speak about upcoming rate hike in July, his comments injected indecision in the market momentum.

On the USD side, today final GDP report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 2.2%, Unemployment Claims is expected to increase to 220k from the previous figure of 218k, Final GDP Price Index is also expected to be unchanged at 1.9%, and Natural Gas Storage report is expected to show a decrease to 73B from the previous figure of 91B. Moreover, today FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak. His was quite optimistic in his last speech. However, in the context of the looming trade war, his speech is sure to make an impact on the USD gains today.

Ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic reports and events from the US and Canada, the market is expected to be quite volatile and corrective in the short run. USD already has an upper hand over CAD. If Canada's reports come better than expected, CAD may gain some momentum in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently developed Continuous Bearish Divergence which is expected to push the price lower towards 1.3120 area in the coming days before the price climbs higher with a target towards 1.40 in the future. The bearish momentum is likely to be short-lived. As the price remains above 1.3120 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for June 28, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index has rallied and tested recent highs at 95.53 today early session before reversing lower. The index is seen to be trading at 95.18 levels at present, and also should be looking to continue drifting lower from here. The Daily chart view presented here suggests that a meaningful top might have already been in place and if that is the case then we are going to witness a major selloff in the form of retracement soon. On the other hand, a sustained push above 95.53 levels would delay the correction further. The high probability remains for a corrective drop from here, also the candlestick pattern for today is looking like an ideal shooting star which is mostly followed by a bearish reversal. The wave counts also suggest that wave (4) might have completed or it is wanting to take a complex form and print lower as shown above.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders would like to remain short, stop above 95.70, target 92.50 at least.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for USD/GDP figure out at 08:30 AM today.

Good luck!

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USD/CHF Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal!

USD/CHF is approaching its resistance at 0.9987 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, multiple swing high resistance) where we expect to see a reversal, causing the price to fall to its support at 0.9919 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is testing its resistance at 98% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

Sell below 0.9987. Stop loss at 1.0031. Take profit at 0.9919.

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GBP/AUD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

GBP/AUD is in a bullish channel where it is approaching its support at 1.7803 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, channel support) where a bounce up to its resistance at 1.8032 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) is expected.

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its intermediate support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 1.7803. Stop loss 1.7685. Take profit at 1.8032.

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Prospects for the growth of the euro and pound under the big question

The US dollar continued to strengthen its positions against the euro, despite the drop in consumer confidence, which was mainly due to the trade warrior who unleashed US authorities against a number of other states, especially against China.

However, given the fact that the data slightly divided with the forecasts of economists, which predicted a decrease in consumer confidence, the market took the news as "due".

Other data, released on Tuesday afternoon, also indirectly affected the market.

According to the report, the growth of house prices in April this year in the US has slowed. This is directly related to the growth of interest rates on mortgages, which affected the consumer demand. According to the Case-Shiller report, the national housing price index in the US rose by only 6.4% in April compared to the same period of the previous year after growing in March by 6.5%.

The housing price index for 10 megacities rose by 6.2% compared to April 2017, while the index for 20 megacities increased by 6.5%. Economists predicted an acceleration in house price growth by 6.8% in April.

Production activity in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond grew in June due to the growth of supply indicators, new orders, and employment. According to the data, the production index of the Fed-Richmond was at the level of 20 points in June this year against 16 points in May.

As I noted above, the confidence of American consumers decreased in June. The decline in optimism about the economic outlook will put pressure on the growth rate of the US economy in the future.

According to the Conference Board report, the consumer confidence index in the USA 2018 dropped to 126.4 points in June from 128.8 points in May. Economists had expected the figure to be 128.1 points. The index of current conditions in the US did not change in June.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, everything indicates a continuation of the euro's decline in the short term. The breakthrough of the large range of supports in the area of 1.1620-1.1630 will lead to a new wave of sales of risky assets, with the renewal of lows in the area of 1.1570 and 1.1530, from where buyers will try to return to the market. To form a new upward trend, bulls will need to return to the resistance level of 1.1680 in the near future. If this does not happen, pressure on risky assets will only increase.

The British pound is also down against the US dollar, despite yesterday's positive statements by Bank of England spokesman, Ian McCafferty. According to the committee member, there are all signs of economic recovery in the UK after the unsuccessful 1st quarter. McCafferty also believes that the Bank of England should not be dragged out with an increase in the key interest rate, but current prospects are indicative of moderate rate increases in the coming years.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 28, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot: 1.1617.

The EUR/USD pair is still trading below the level of 1.1662. The EUR/USD pair has found strong support at the level of 1.1543. So, the strong support has been already encountered at the level of 1.1543 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Hence, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9660; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.1662 and 1.1543. Also, it should be noted that major resistance is seen at 1.1662, while immediate resistance is found at 1.1662. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 1.1662 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.1662, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.1617. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.1662. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 1.1617 with the first target at the level of 1.1662 and continue towards 1.1698. On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.1662; the market will decline further to the level of 1.1487 later.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 28, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair opened below the daily major resistance (1.3131). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.3131 to the bottom around 1.3068. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3131 followed by 1.3196, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3068. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.3068. So it will be good to sell at 1.3068 with the first target of 1.2988. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.2919 in coming hours.

The strong daily support is seen at the 1.2919 level, which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3090 and 1.2919 in coming two days. The price area of 1.3131 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.3131 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.3131, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.3196.

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Global macro overview for 28/06/2018

The Czech National Bank surprised and, contrary to the expectations of economists, for the fourth time in a year raised interest rates, increasingly moving away from the "technical zero".

The main interest rate was raised by the Czech central bank from 0.75 to 1.00%. The lombard rate once again grows twice as high as the main one - that is by 50 bp - from 1.00 to 1.50%. The discount rate was retained unchanged at 0.05%.

This is the fourth increase in the price of money by the Czech National Bank during the year. The first of them took place in August 2017, when CNB broke with the policy of "technically zero" interest rates. It was then the first since 2012 increase in loan costs in Central Europe. The second time was in November 2017. For the third time, the rates increased in February this year, although then such a decision was predicted by analysts. The reasons in the case of the second, third and fourth increases were the same - the main rate increased by 25 bp, while the lombard rate by 50 bp.

The entire region of Central Europe is currently experiencing a clear economic recovery. GDP growth in the countries of the region reaches 4-5 percent and inflation reaches the highest levels in 5 years, hitting (or sometimes even exceeding) the official inflation targets of central banks. In the Czech Republic, CPI inflation in May was still slightly above the inflation target (2% from tolerated deviations by one percentage point) and amounted to 2.2% on the yearly basis.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CZK technical picture at the H4 time frame. In response to the rate hike, the Czech crown strengthened by 0.50% against the Euro. The market is currently approaching the long-term support at the level of 25.35. Any violation of this level would likely lead to the further appreciation of CZK despite the oversold market conditions.

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Buy the dollar on a rollback

The US dollar strengthened its pressure on foreign exchange markets, due to several reasons that dominated the markets.

After some "stumbling" in place, the dollar again began to receive support on the wave of several sustainable causes. First and foremost is the factor of the trade wars, in which the American currency is seen as a tool to avoid risk. On one hand, it is bought to wait for the uncertainty in which the currency is in demand as a safe haven. On the other hand, it is bought in order to then acquire a defensive asset in the form of government bonds of the United States Treasury. The dynamics of the Treasury are bright at this point.

So, by the end of this month, the ICE dollar index increased from the level of 93.97 points to 95.24 points against a basket of major currencies. At first it may seem that this increase is insignificant but if you pay attention to those events that happened this month, and they "turned" around the decision of the Fed to raise interest rates and the beginning of trade wars between the States and most of their trading partners, it becomes clear as to why the rate grew so slowly. Against the backdrop of these events, the dollar was getting support, then, on the contrary, it was under pressure. However in the end, this old property of currency asylum "triumphed". It, on one hand, is bought on the wave of exit primarily from the currencies of developing countries, as well as the understanding that the process of divergence in interest rates between the Fed and the Central Bank of economically developed countries will most likely continue, which plays in favor of the dollar. On the other hand, the dollar is bought in order to then buy US government bonds. This is done in order to avoid risk and sit out in reliable state securities a period of turbulence, caused primarily by the factor of trade wars.

The fact that the world's Central Bank and other regulators of the economically developed countries should not expect changes in monetary policy confirmed the outcome of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which decided to leave the key interest rate at the previous level of 1.75% and at the same time signaled that it was not in the nearest foreseeable the future. This is to count on its change not only upwards, but also downwards.

Watching the emerging picture in the foreign exchange market, we believe that the dollar has good prospects for growth against the currencies of developing countries, as well as major currencies. Its increase will be accompanied by kickbacks on the background of profit taking, but a stable growth dynamics will most likely persist.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair adjusted upwards against the background of profit taking. Perhaps, it will recover to the level of 1.1585. If it stands, there is a probability of the pair turning and its further decrease to 1.1515 and to 1.1440.

The NZDUSD pair fell below the strong support level of 0.6790, which was held from the fall of 2016. If the price is kept below it, there is a possibility of continuing the decline to 0.6680 after correction to 0.6790.

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Bitcoin analysis for June 28, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential end of the downward correction (flat abc), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence in the background, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the supply trendline to confirm further upward movement. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.521 and at the price of $6.765.Support/Resistance

$6.142 – Intraday resistance; $6,031 – Intraday support; $6.521 – Objective target 1$6.765 - Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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USD/JPY analysis for June 28, 2018

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Recently, USD/JPY has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 110.41. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a rising trendline and successful breakout of the bullish flag, which is a sign that buyers are in control. The intraday trend is bullish and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 110.55 and at the price of 110.85.

Resistance levels: R1: 110.57R2: 110.93 R3: 111.37

Support levels: S1: 109.77 S2: 109.33S3: 108.97

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 28, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Initially, Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Recently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Bearish target around 1.1520 has already been reached on the previous Thursday.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during last week's consolidations.

Initial Bullish target levels was located around 1.1750. However, significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1700 which led to the current bearish decline again towards the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1700 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Bearish breakdown below 1.1520-1.1420 might occur if enough bearish pressure is applied. This would potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

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Analysis of Gold for June 28, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,249.00. According to the H1 time - frame, I found that sellers are in control and that there is a broken intraday bearish flag in the background. I also found a breakout of FIbonacci expansion 100%, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,235.85.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,259.95 R2: $1,265.50 R3: $1,269.35

Support levels: S1: $1,250.50 S2: $1,246.60 S3: $1,240.95

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 28, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why the bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6875 to secure some profits.

Currently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 is being challenged by the NZD/USD bears. This price zone should be considered as an initial target level for current sellers.

Bearish breakdown of the price zone 0.6820-0.6780 will probably allow further bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6670 if the current bearish momentum is maintained on a daily basis.

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Global macro overview for 28/06/2018

Trade disputes remain the main subject for markets which is manifesting in the form of a weakening Chinese yuan. CNY is the weakest in six months, but it is not clear whether these are signs of investors' pessimism about China's prospects or Beijing's new tactics in the fight against US protectionism.

The weakness of the yuan is usually bad news for emerging market currencies as well as related AUD and NZD, but the response is limited. The lack of sense of direction is noticeable, which is partly justified. Assuming that all Trump's threats will be turned into binding regulations seems premature. The total trade war is still unlikely, although the risk of its occurrence is slightly higher than before. But also commercial policy is not a simple subject to capture, given the complex network of links between suppliers and end manufacturers of products. Isolating one country does not have to be beneficial for local producers if they hinder access to components or block foreign markets. Secondly, if other countries respond purposefully to weaken their currencies against USD, the benefits of customs policies will be reduced.

In general, there are many unknowns that make it difficult to assess the final impact of trade policy, and therefore it is difficult to determine the winnings and losses in the currency market. As a result, the jerky trade on EUR/USD or USD/JPY has its justification. In other places, the risk aversion has its predominance, which is rooted in pure uncertainty.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CNY technical picture at the daily time frame. The market has just broken through the 50% Fibo at the level of 6.60 and it is heading higher towards the level of 6.6850. The momentum is strong and positive, but the market conditions are starting to become overbought. It is worth to keep an eye on the current market developments as the price is approaching the wall of the technical resistance at the levels of 6.6390, 6.6515 and 6.6616. This zone should put a temporary lid on the rally and price might start to consolidate.

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Bitcoin analysis for 28/06/2018

Facebook is withdrawing its ban on cryptocurrencies, although advertisers will have to be approved first, while ICO will be blocked. Interested advertisers must complete the application containing information about the licenses and information whether their cryptocurrency is publicly available.

The original ban on Facebook appeared at a time when cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, were flourishing, and largely unregulated space gave rise to loud frauds and with the help of influential people from the financial world and banks, crypto-currencies were slandered, also using the media. A similar ban was also introduced by Google, Twitter, and Snapchat, and Bitcoin's price dropped from $ 20,000 to $ 6,000 in five months. Wondering coincidence?

The first Facebook policy aimed at all "financial products and services often associated with misleading or fraudulent promotional practices", even stopped legitimate companies from buying advertising. Now, however, interested advertisers can fill out an application containing information about licensing and whether their currency is publicly available to help Facebook determine their eligibility.

"Considering these limitations, not everyone who wants to advertise will be able to do so" - writes Robert Leathern in the product manager on Facebook and adds: "but we will listen to feedback, we will check how this policy works and we continue to study this technology so that we can revise it over time".

In May, Facebook created a new experimental Blockchain group, headed by former Messenger Manager David Marcus, to focus on technology that is the foundation of cryptocurrencies.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. A lack of volatility is clear at the current market as the price is hovering just below the weekly pivot at the level of $6,223. This is somehow a good news for all of the bulls as the price is consolidating the gains. The bullish divergence helps to lift the price a little, but the key resistance at the level of $6,519 is still not violated. The immediate support is seen at the level of $5,900 and then at the swing low at $5,742.analytics5b3486c01d7d0.jpg

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Technical analysis on EUR/USD for June 28, 2018

EUR/USD has broken below critical support yesterday and the RSI has also broken below its support trend line implying that we should soon see a move below 1.15. The trend is bearish as long as the price is below 1.1720.

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Magenta line - horizontal support

Blue line - RSI support (broken)

Yesterday I mentioned in my analysis that if RSI price broke below the blue trend line support we should expect the price to fall towards 1.1590 and lower. This is what happened yesterday as support did not hold. Next support is at 1.15 and I believe that as long as we are below 1.1720 any bounce should be sold. The trend is bearish. Next target is at 1.1450.

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Technical analysis on Gold for June 28, 2018

The Gold price remains in a bearish trend. Price has reached lower levels than I initially expected. Gold price is hugely miss-priced at current levels, however, there is no sign of upward reversal yet.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Short-term resistance is at $1,255 and next at $1,261. The trend will change only on a break above the 4-hour cloud resistance now found at $1,285. Next important support is at $1,235. Gold justifies a more than 20$ bounce from current levels. This decline is most probably a stop run to squeeze out longs.

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Banking zones for EUR/USD

Yesterday, the compilation of applications for the Eurosystem was completed and this could determine the priority and current phase of the market. While a fairly strong downward movement indicates a high probability for the continuation of the downward impulse.

The decline on Wednesday allowed the pair to return to the banking compilation zone a week ago which points to the flat phase of the movement, where the extremes of the month take action. The immediate target of decline is the June low. The main target of the downward movement will be the interest rate level of 2%, 1.1437. If the pair will fall to the specified mark, it will be necessary to fix a short position as the probability of large demand will increase.

It is important to note that the pair overcame the average daily turn yesterday and the closing of the American session occurred below it. This indicates a high probability of updating the yesterday's low, which should be the basis for building today's trading plan. Any upward movement should be used to find advantageous prices to sell the instrument. An interesting resistance level may be the boundary of the compilation zone in the past two weeks.

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Growth is necessary in order for the flat phase to remain a priority towards the banking compilation zone yesterday. If this happens, then we will track the closing level of closure during the American session relative to the zone. While the pair is trading below the compilation zone, the downward movement will remain a priority which will allow us to consider favorable prices for selling the instrument. The probability of updating the June maximum is 30%.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Trading plan for 28/06/2018

USD sustains its strength from yesterday, although the volatility on Thursday does not knock down. Another day of the weakening of the Chinese yuan reminds that fears about US-China trade relations weigh on sentiment. EUR/USD stopped the decreases before 1.1540. USD/JPY made an unsuccessful attempt to break at 110. Today in the morning GBP/USD intensified the decline to 1.3070, although for no apparent reason.

The Asian stock market is breaking by 9-month lows, and declines are fueled by fears of trade wars. Japanese Nikkei is at the level from Wednesday's closing. Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 0.4%.WTI oil rose yesterday by over 3.0% and today it only slightly adjusts to 72.4 USD. According to DoE, last week oil fell by almost 10 million barrels, which together with the demands of the White House for allies to stop importing Iranian gas, creates a hole on the supply side.

On Thursday 28th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on CPI data from Germany, Consumer Confidence data for the Eurozone, GDP, and Unemployment Claims data from the US. Moreover, there are some speeches scheduled today from MPC Member Andy Haldane and FOMC Member James Bullard and Raphael W. Bostic.

NZD/USD analysis for 28/06/2018:

RBNZ has maintained the OCR rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. The RBNZ official rate statement underlined the weakness of GDP growth and emphasized the negative impact of uncertainty on the global growth outlook. It was also written that in order to ensure stable employment and low inflation, the bank intends to keep interest rates at an expansionary level for a significant period. President Orr said that "for now" rates will remain unchanged. The dovish remarks in the statement were close to the attitude of investors that had been building since the beginning of the week.

Let's now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair was stable right after the decision, but today it drops to the level of 0.6762. The price is below the key daily support at the level of 0.6780 and the bears are in full control of the market. Please notice, that the price is starting to diverge from the momentum oscillator in oversold market conditions, so there is a chance for the corrective pull-back higher soon.

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