Fractal analysis of Gold, Silver, and Oil on April 9

Forecast for April 9:

Analytical review in H1 scale:

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For Gold, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 1726.71, 1703.84, 1692.46, 1672.88, 1652.11, 1638.66 and 1620.04. Here, we are following the development of the local ascending structure of March 31. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1672.88. In this case, the target is 1692.46. Meanwhile, price consolidation is in the range of 1692.46 - 1703.84. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 1726.71. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1703.84.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1652.11 - 1638.66. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1620.04. This level is a key support for the entire upward trend.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of March 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1673.00 Take profit: 1692.00

Buy: 1705.00 Take profit: 1725.00

Sell: 1652.00 Take profit: 1640.00

Sell: 1636.00 Take profit: 1620.00

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For Oil, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 34.46, 32.48, 29.64, 27.37, 23.46, 21.90, and 19.14. Here, we are following the formation of medium-term initial conditions for the top of March 30. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 27.37. In this case, the first goal is 29.64. The breakdown of this level will lead to the development of an upward cycle in the scale of H1 and H4. For the potential value for the top, it is still considered at the level of 34.46.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 23.46 - 21.90, hence, there is a high probability of an upward reversal. The breakdown of the level of 21.90 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 19.14.

The main trend is the formation of a medium-term upward structure from March 30, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 27.40 Take profit: 29.60

Buy: 29.70 Take profit: 32.40

Sell: 23.46 Take profit: 22.00

Sell: 21.70 Take profit: 19.75

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For Silver, the main key levels on the H1 scale are: 16.11, 15.76, 15.59, 15.31, 15.01, 14.81 and 14.54. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure from April 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 15.31. In this case, the target is 15.59. On the other hand, price consolidation is in the range of 15.59 - 15.76. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 16.11. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 15.76.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 15.01 - 14.81. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 14.54. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of April 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 15.33 Take profit: 15.59

Buy: 15.77 Take profit: 16.10

Sell: 15.01 Take profit: 14.81

Sell: 14.78 Take profit: 14.55

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for April 9

Forecast for April 9:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0978, 1.0916, 1.0876, 1.0791, 1.0761, 1.0704 and 1.0622. Here, we are following the development of the descending structure of March 27. At the moment, the price has formed a pronounced potential for the upward cycle of April 6. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.0791 - 1.0761. In this case, the target is 1.0704, wherein price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.0622. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0876 - 1.0916. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0978. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of March 27, the formation of potential for the top of April 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0876 Take profit: 1.0914

Buy: 1.0918 Take profit: 1.0978

Sell: 1.0760 Take profit: 1.0705

Sell: 1.0702 Take profit: 1.0622

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2694, 1.2609, 1.2550, 1.2467, 1.2411, 1.2317, 1.2248, 1.2158 and 1.2003. Here, the price registered a local upward structure from April 7 to continue the development of the main trend. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.2411 - 1.2467. In this case, the target is 1.2550. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2550 - 1.2609. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.2694. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2317 - 1.2248. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.2158. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2003. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2155.

The main trend is the local upward structure of April 7

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2468 Take profit: 1.2550

Buy: 1.2610 Take profit: 1.2694

Sell: 1.2317 Take profit: 1.2250

Sell: 1.2246 Take profit: 1.2158

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9954, 0.9916, 0.9851, 0.9806, 0.9762, 0.9675, 0.9644, 0.9599 and 0.9569. At the moment, the price is in correction from the downward structure on March 30 and forms the potential for the downward cycle of April 6. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9762. In this case, the first target is 0.9806. The breakdown of which, in turn, will lead to the movement to the level of 0.9851, wherein price consolidation is near this level. The passage at the price of 0.9851 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9916. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9954. Upon reaching which, a pullback to the bottom is expected.

The development of the descending structure of April 6 is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9675. In this case, the first target is 0.9644. The breakdown of the latter should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 0.9599. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9569. A rollback to the top is expected from this level.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 30, the formation of potential for the downward cycle of April 6

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9764 Take profit: 0.9804

Buy : 0.9806 Take profit: 0.9850

Sell: 0.9675 Take profit: 0.9645

Sell: 0.9642 Take profit: 0.9600

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 111.11, 110.45, 109.99, 109.32, 108.70, 108.17, 107.58 and 106.88. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure of April 1. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 109.32. In this case, the target is 109.99. Upon reaching this level, a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation in the range of 109.99 - 110.45 is expected. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 111.11. Upon reaching this level, a pullback to the bottom is expected.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 108.70 - 108.17. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.58. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend: the downward structure of March 25, the formation of potential for the top of April 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.32 Take profit: 109.97

Buy : 110.00 Take profit: 110.45

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.20

Sell: 108.15 Take profit: 107.70

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.4220, 1.4147, 1.4090, 1.3933, 1.3883, 1.3760 and 1.3670. Here, the subsequent targets on the H1 scale can be determined from the descending structure on March 31. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 1.3933 - 1.3883. In this case, the target is 1.3760. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3670. Upon reaching which, a pullback to the top is expected.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.4090 - 1.4147. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.4220. This level is a key support for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the downward cycle of March 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.4090 Take profit: 1.4145

Buy : 1.4150 Take profit: 1.4220

Sell: 1.3883 Take profit: 1.3764

Sell: 1.3760 Take profit: 1.3670

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6596, 0.6511, 0.6352, 0.6241, 0.6031, 0.5935 and 0.5779. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 19. On the other hand, short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6241 - 0.6352. The breakdown of the level of 0.6352 will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.6595. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6595 - 0.6511, hence, a correction is also expected.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6031 - 0.5935. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.5779. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of March 19

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6241 Take profit: 0.6350

Buy: 0.6354 Take profit: 0.6511

Sell : 0.6030 Take profit : 0.5935

Sell: 0.5933 Take profit: 0.5780

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.07, 120.30, 119.76, 119.05, 117.83, 117.28, 116.35 and 115.23. Here, we are following the initial conditions for the upward cycle of April 2. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 119.05. In this case, the target is 119.76. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 119.76 - 120.30. We consider the level 121.07 to be a potential value for the upward trend. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 117.83 - 117.28. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the goal is 116.35. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 115.23. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 116.30.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of April 2

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 119.05 Take profit: 119.76

Buy: 119.78 Take profit: 120.30

Sell: 117.83 Take profit: 117.30

Sell: 117.25 Take profit: 116.50

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 140.54, 138.12, 136.99, 133.93, 132.94, 131.58 and 129.78. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of March 18. At the moment, a movement to the level of 136.99 is expected. Meanwhile, short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 136.99 - 138.12. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 140.54. The movement to which is possible after the breakdown of the level of 138.20.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 133.93 - 132.94. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth movement. Here, the goal is 131.58. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage in price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the potential target is 129.78.

The main trend is the upward cycle of March 18

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 135.45 Take profit: 136.94

Buy: 137.00 Take profit: 138.10

Sell: 133.93 Take profit: 132.96

Sell: 132.92 Take profit: 131.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 04/09/2020 and trading recommendation

The market took a short break yesterday and decided to stand still amid a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. At the same time, the market ignored even the coronavirus epidemic. But all the talk at the beginning of the week that the peak of the epidemic has already passed is now in the past. The number of new cases of coronavirus infection is increasing for the second day in a row. So it is premature to relax since the situation continues to be critical.

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In contrast to yesterday, a lot of interesting macroeconomic data will be released today, so the market may well revive. However, these statistics themselves are purely negative. For example, the rate of decline in industrial production in the UK should accelerate from -2.9% to -3.0%. And at the same time, this data for February isn't even that important. After all, industrial production was already experiencing serious problems even before the coronavirus epidemic hit Europe, thereby, implying that the data for March will show a catastrophic drop. So this data will be able to bring the pound out of stagnation. However, it will move in the direction of weakening the British currency.

Industrial production (great Britain):

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But US data are much more important today. Especially for applications for unemployment benefits. The number of primary applications is breaking all imaginable records for two consecutive weeks, which means that a real disaster is coming to the US labor market. And most likely, this trend will only continue, since the number of initial applications should be 5,150 thousand. It's not as much as last week, but it's still a lot. At the same time, both previous times, the actual data was several times higher than the forecasts, so there is a risk that this situation will repeat today. Repeated applications can set an absolute record, as they should be as much as 6,990 thousand. So just a week after the record for the number of initial applications was set, repeat applications will set their own record. And in theory, this is very bad for the dollar. However, the greenback did not fall for two weeks amid the unprecedented increase in unemployment, but rather it showed a desire to strengthen. This is caused by a banal flight from risk. That is, if things are so bad in the United States, then other countries are about to get terrible. And it is very likely that today we will see exactly the same picture.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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In terms of technical analysis, we see that the price movement is made inside a wide side channel for the second week, where there is a local upward movement relative to the current fluctuation. In fact, the values 1.2150; 1.2350; 1.2480 (1.2500) remain as the coordinates of the interaction of trading forces.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see two consecutive inertia, where a slowdown was formed relative to the peak of the second, within which the current oscillation is produced.

We can assume that the framework of the main flat will remain in the market, where you should work on local fluctuations. So, considering the hour period, we see that as early as 20 hours, the quote has a fluctuation within the variable band of 1.2370/1.2420, where the accumulation is fixed. The work tactics in this case are chosen by the method of breaking the established boundaries.

We will specify all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions higher than 1.2420, with the prospect of a move to 1.2450-1.2480.

- Short positions are considered lower than 1.2365, with the prospect of a move to 1.2325-1.2280.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that minute intervals signal a variable signal, due to price fluctuations in a relatively narrow band. Hourly and daily periods reflect a local buy signal due to a round of long operations from the beginning of the trading week.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for GBP/USD pair on April 9, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the market from the level of 1.2384 (yesterday's closing of the daily candlestick) can continue to move up, with the target at 1.2518 - a pullback level of 61.8% (red dashed line). If this level is broken up, the upward movement will continue with the target at 1.2779 - a pullback level of 76.4% (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price's upward movement is possible with the target at 1.2518 - a pullback level of 61.8% (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: working down from the level of 1.2384 (yesterday's closing of the daily candlestick), with the target of 1.2306 - a pullback level of 50.0% (red dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for EUR/USD pair on April 9, 2020

On Wednesday, the pair moved down in the side channel, expecting Thursday's strong news. Today, the market is waiting for news on OPEC. According to the technique, the price may continue to move down. On Thursday, strong calendar news is expected at 11.30 Universal time (Euro), and 12.30 Universal time (dollar).

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the market from the pullback level of 23.6% - 1.0858 (red dashed line) can continue to move down, with the target of 1.0832 - the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line). If this level is broken down, the downward movement will continue with the target of 1.0769 - the lower fractal (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price will try to continue to decline with the target at 1.0769 - the lower fractal (red

dashed line).

An unlikely scenario: the price can move up from a pullback level of 61.8% - 1.0832 (blue

dashed line) with a target of 1.0913, which is a pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 09/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Bank of Korea has announced that it has launched a pilot program to assess the logistics of issuing digital currency of the central bank - or CBDC. While South Korea's central bank does not plan to introduce such currency immediately, the pilot program will ensure it is ready in the face of changing market conditions.

After theoretical research carried out in February 2020, the pilot will cover the technological and legal review of CBDC emissions. It will last 22 months, until December 2021.

The first step is to define the requirements and the CBDC project that will run for five months until July 2020. It will overlap with the review of the technology required to implement the currency, which is scheduled from April to August.

A business process analysis will then be carried out, which will last until the end of 2020. Finally, in 2021, a 12-month compilation and testing of the CBDC pilot system should take place.

The announcement explains that the bank does not see the immediate need to issue a digital currency in South Korea, but rather that, based on research from other countries in this area, it wants to be prepared in case such a move becomes a necessity.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD high located at the level of $175.00 is still an important target for bulls that are still trying to make use of the momentum behind the recent move up and move higher towards the level of $176.78, which is a technical resistance for the price. The Ethereum bulls are now consolidating the recent gains in a narrow range that looks like a Pennant pattern. On the other hand, if the bulls fail here, (there is a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern present on H4 time frame chart), then the next technical support is seen at the level of $156.24 - $153.46. Please notice the increasing momentum on ETH/USD on H4 time frame chart during the last move up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $180.45

WR2 - $163.97

WR1 - $154.32

Weekly Pivot - $137.76

WS1 - $127.39

WS2 - $112.43

WS3 - $101.19

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 09/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Microsoft warns hospitals at risk of ransomware attacks to prevent healthcare institutions from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The company also published recommendations for hospitals to secure their systems and prevent such attacks.

Through a network of threat analysts, Microsoft states that it has "identified dozens of hospitals" with vulnerable virtual private networks and other publicly available applications on their systems:

Microsoft distributed "first-of-its-kind" targeted hospital notifications containing "important information about vulnerabilities, how attackers can exploit them, and a strong recommendation to apply security updates that protect them from security holes."

Hospitals were recommended to provide regular updates of the VPN configuration and firewall, better monitoring of remote access infrastructure, and enhanced violation response protocols.

It is recommended that they seek greater involvement of operational security specialists and plan regular audits. Microsoft is also participating in the 'Tech Against Corona' initiative with around a dozen technology companies to freely provide technology to the Dutch government to fight coronavirus - which includes efforts to help hospitals fight ransomware.

Some ransomware and darknet operators take a rare moral position among COVID-19. Both Maze and DoppelPaymer operators said they would not launch ransomware attacks on hospitals during a pandemic.

Technical Market Outlook:

After a dip towards the level of $7,028, the BTC/USD pair moved quickly back towards the recent high at the level of $7,392. Currently, the bulls are preparing to rally higher towards the level of $7,757 as the price consolidates the recent gains. Nevertheless, if the bearish pressure will intensify again, then the price might lose the momentum and move even lower towards the technical support located at $6,908 or even towards the level of $6,586.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,726

WR2 - $7,938

WR1 - $7,363

Weekly Pivot - $6,545

WS1 - $5,997

WS2 - $5,159

WS3 - $4,567

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 09/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has hit the 38% Fibonacci retracement at the level of 1.0913 but failed to rally higher after a Pin Bar candlestick pattern has been made at the top of the move. If the bulls will keep trying to rally, then they must consider the obstacle that was the technical resistance located at the level of 1.0888. Only a clear breakout above this intraday resistance level would accelerate the rally towards the level of 1.0951. On the other hand, a failure to break out will likely result in deepening the move down and new local lows will be made. The next technical support is seen at the bottom of the swing at 1.0654 and 1.0635.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1359

WR2 - 1.1244

WR1 - 1.0981

Weekly Pivot - 1.0872

WS1 - 1.0612

WS2 - 1.0487

WS3 - 1.0228

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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#CL Price Movement For April 09, 2020

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If we look at the 4-hour chart on the crude oil, we see that buyers want to take control in this market. The $29.12 Liquidity Pool will be a magnet for oil buyers, although before the price goes up this is expected to make a retracement first to $23.55 to gain upward momentum. As long as crude oil does not retrace lower than $21.70, the odds are that 29.12 will be hit soon.

(Disclaimer)

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 09/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair keeps trading inside of the narrow price range located between the levels of 1.2199 - 1.2411. The volatility has decreased and Cable is not able to make a new local high on H4 time frame chart, but recently the bears have broken below the short-term trend line support around the level of 1.2370 and this created a short opportunity. The target might be the 50% Fibonacci at the level of 1.2305 or even the lower levels at 1.2199. The next key technical support for GBP is seen at the level of 1.2012 - 1.1957 and if this level is violated, then the bears will be in control of the price again. For now, despite the oversold market conditions, the outlook remains neutral to bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2628

WR2 - 1.2555

WR1 - 1.2356

Weekly Pivot - 1.2275

WS1 - 1.2111

WS2 - 1.2024

WS3 - 1.1831

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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GBP/USD making mini double top pattern

GBP/USD is trading in the red according to the H1 chart and it has developed a potential Double Top chart pattern which could signal a potential drop in the short term. The pair continued to increase in yesterday's session as the USDX stayed lower.

The USD could take full control if the USDX increases again. The US dollar decreased a little versus the other major currencies amid disappointing the NFP report and the unemployment data. However, the US currency could remain strong during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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GBP/USD failed to reach the R1 (1.2425) level in the last two attempts signaling that the pair is exhausted and overbought. It failed to approach the upper median line (UML) of the ascending pitchfork. It fell below the median line (ML). A valid breakdown below the 1.2369 low will validate a minor drop.

I've drawn a minor orange descending pitchfork hoping that I'll catch a potential drop, so if the price remains below the upper median line (uml), it could be attracted by the median line (ml) and by the lower median line (LML) of the ascending pitchfork.

  • TRADING TIPS

A valid breakdown below the 1.2369, another low, will confirm a drop towards the median line (ml) of the minor orange descending pitchfork and towards the weekly Pivot Point (1.2314). We'll have a broader drop if the USDX edges higher and if GBP/USD ignores the support represented by the PP, the median line (ml), the 50% retracement level and by the lower median line (LML).

GBP/USD will resume the upside movement only if it fails to make a valid breakdown and if it jumps and stabilizes above the upper median line (uml).

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EUR/USD: Fed's passing minutes and Thursday's important events

The US currency ignored the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting that was published yesterday, although dollar bulls, as a rule, do not ignore this document. But this time everything was too predictable – it is obvious that the Fed will hold a pause after the mad March, when the central bank urgently trimmed the interest rate twice, bringing it almost to zero. Actually, this idea runs through the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed members.

The document states that the Fed will keep the rate at the current level until the US economy copes with the consequences of "recent events", and will not be on the way to achieving maximum employment and price stability goals. The last meeting was held unscheduled on March 15, that is, before the first failed releases on the US labor market. But it seems that the Fed members foresaw such a scenario (I wonder if it is on such a scale).

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It is worth recalling here that the latest NonFarms data, which has yet to fully reflect the epidemic's consequences, were weaker than even the weakest forecasts. The number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector decreased by 700,000 in March, while the forecast was of a decline of 100,000. The number of employees in the private sector of the economy decreased by 713,000, while it fell by 18,000 in the manufacturing sector. The unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% to 4.4%. And according to some experts, the real situation is much worse. First, although NonFarms reflect the situation after the beginning of the epidemic, they are still two weeks behind the report on applications for unemployment benefits. According to data, some states do not have time to process requests on time, so even such a huge increase may be understated. According to experts, the dynamics of growth in these applications corresponds to a 10% unemployment rate.

Given the rhetoric of the above minutes, it can be assumed that the regulator will return to the issue of raising the rate only when the unemployment rate stabilizes around the five percent mark. In the meantime, the US market is experiencing the opposite dynamics. For example, data on the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected to be released today in the US. This figure increased by three million the week before last, and by six million last week, and it is expected to have similar dynamics this week – five and a half million new applications.

And if the Fed's minutes was ignored by dollar bulls (since its main theses were voiced by Powell earlier), today's release could cause some volatility for the pair – especially if the indicator exceeds the 6-million mark. It is also necessary to pay attention to the US producer price index, which is an early signal of changes in inflationary trends. It declined quite significantly in February – on a monthly basis, and it fell into a negative area and updated the two-year low. A decline is also expected in March, both in monthly and annual terms. If this index also comes out in the red zone, this will put background pressure on the greenback, especially in the run-up to the publication of key inflation data (the release is expected tomorrow).

The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan is also of some interest – a preliminary estimate for April will be published today. Over the course of six months, that is, from September to February, this indicator has consistently and steadily increased, reaching its peak at 101 points. But it sharply fell to 89 points in March. A further decline is expected today, according to preliminary forecasts - up to 80 points. In this case, the fact of the decline has already been taken into account in prices, but if the index falls below the 80-point value, the dollar bulls' reaction will be negative.

However, if we directly talk about the euro-dollar pair, we should still maintain a wait-and-see position until the market reacts to the results of today's negotiations between the EU finance ministers. Let me remind you that the previous 16-hour negotiations ended without result: the warring parties (the southern European countries "led" by Italy and the northern states "led" by Germany) stood by their positions and could not agree on a package of financial assistance.

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They will try again today. And here it is necessary to emphasize that the European currency will sharply react to any outcome of today's dialogue – the only question is in which direction. If the negotiators still find a compromise, the EUR/USD pair will not only enter the ninth figure, but also go further, to the Kumo cloud on the daily chart, that is, to the borders of the 10th price level. But if the ministers take another timeout, the pair will collapse to the local low of 1.0763, and if it breaks through – to the bottom of the seventh figure. Do not rush in making trade decisions in view of this uncertainty – the direction in which the pendulum will swing will be clear in the next 24 hours.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 9. Bulls approached the 1.2383 level, but further growth is a big question

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Buyers of the British pound coped with the task and returned the pair to the middle of a wide side channel of 1.2383, but no one seems to know what to do next. Most likely, traders will wait for reports on the state of the UK economy in February this year, but they are unlikely to change the situation. I advise you to return to long positions only after the downward correction of the pound in the area of the lower border of the channel 1.2285, or buy immediately on the rebound from the weekly low of 1.2166. We can talk about buying when a false breakout forms in the area of a mid-channel 1.2383, but keep in mind the fact that this range could be "spread out" in current conditions of uncertainty with direction, and short stop orders for such market entry is unlikely to be suitable. An equally important task for the bulls will be to update the resistance at 1.2484, where I recommend taking profits. More persistent players will count on a breakthrough of this resistance and update the highs of 1.2605 and 1.2686.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound need to quickly rehabilitate after yesterday's "lull" in the resistance area of 1.2383. A return and consolidation under this level, along with poor data on the UK GDP growth rate in February this year, will lead the pair's decline to the support area of 1.2285. A break of this level will sharply pull down the GBP/USD to a weekly low in the 1.2166 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows further, it is best to return to short positions from the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.2484, but you can sell the pound immediately on the rebound from the high of 1.2484, with the aim of correcting 40-50 points within the day. News of the deteriorating health of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who remains in intensive care, may also put pressure on the British pound.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the range of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.2420 will lead to a larger growth of the pound. Breakdown of the lower boundary in the region of 1.2355 will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 9. Traders await results of the next Eurogroup meeting. Bulls aim for breakthrough

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

The EUR/USD pair's situation did not change in any way yesterday afternoon, since the minutes of the Federal Reserve were of a passing nature and traders did not find anything new in them. The absence of important fundamental statistics in the morning, except for the European Central Bank's minutes, which is unlikely to affect the market, will likely keep the pair in the side channel. However, market participants will wait for the results of the Eurogroup's next meeting on the issue of providing assistance worth 500 billion euros. Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Bulls still need to return to the resistance of 1.0897, which will make it possible for the pair to maintain an upward trend and also lead to a repeated update of the high of 1.0961, where I recommend taking profits. In case the euro falls to the support area of 1.0825, long positions can be returned only if a false breakout forms there. Buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound, I recommend only from this week's low in the area of 1.0772, based on 40-50 points of correction within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Bears also took a wait-and-see attitude and will most likely only show themselves if the talks between the eurozone finance ministers fail again. It is best to return to short positions in the first half of the day only when a false breakout forms at the level of 1.0897, which will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a repeated decline to the low of 1.0825. However, only a break in this range will allow sellers to build a new downward trend that can return EUR/USD to the weekly low of 1.0772, where I recommend taking profits. In case EUR/USD grows above the resistance of 1.0897, it is best to postpone selling immediately for a rebound until the high of 1.0961 is updated, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates further uncertainty with the direction of the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Volatility has decreased, which does not provide signals for entering the market.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF price movement for April 09, 2020

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Since the Swissie has passed through the 0.9725 level, the pair may decline. The pair could enter a consolidation phase but now it is trying to test the nearest liquidity pool at the 0.9685-0.9675 levels. As long as USD/CHF does not retrace to 0.9797, it will continue to drop.

(Disclaimer)

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 9. Boris Johnson remains in intensive care, Donald Trump is going to stop funding the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -1.4194

The British pound resumed its upward movement inside the side channel, limited by the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2450 (approximately). Thus, now the GBP/USD pair is moving to the upper border of the channel, from which a rebound may follow. Fourth in a row. If this rebound occurs, the pair will start moving down to the lower border of the side channel. If the area of 1.2450-1.2470 is overcome, the upward trend may resume. The volatility of the currency pair continues to decrease, and all the news from across the ocean and from the Foggy Albion concerns mainly the epidemic of the COVID-2019 virus. Traders are still relatively calm, but the pandemic is not fading, so there are more and more cases of the virus every day. At the moment, 1,464,000 were infected and 85,000 deaths have been recorded worldwide.

Donald Trump, meanwhile, continues to look for those responsible for the spread of the "coronavirus" on the territory of the United States. It seems that the American President is not concerned about the fact that the entire planet is infected, but about the fact that the virus came from China, with which the United States has had very tense relations in recent years. "Tense" thanks to the same Donald Trump, who set out to renegotiate trade agreements with all US partners. The trade war with China lasted a year and a half and was put on pause in January this year by the signing of the "first phase" agreement. Recall that this is not the final agreement, most of the duties on both sides continue to apply. Thus, there is no question of any truce between Beijing and Washington, and the trade war continues. Negotiations on the "second phase" were supposed to start in February, but at that time, an epidemic had already started in China, and a month later, it was already raging in Europe and the United States. Trump immediately called the "coronavirus" a "Chinese virus" and accused Beijing of insufficient measures to combat the epidemic, misinformation that led to the infection of the entire world. Now the sword of Donald Trump has fallen on the World Health Organization, which, according to the American President, has done very little to prevent the spread of the virus. On Twitter, Trump wrote: "The WHO really failed everything. For some reason, the organization, which is mostly supported by the United States, has focused all its attention on China. We will carefully study this issue." The US leader also accused the WHO of incorrect advice. "Fortunately, I did not follow their recommendations to not close the border to visitors from China," Trump said. The US President also threatened to suspend payments to WHO, as he believes that America spends the most money on Turkey, and who spends the most money on China. According to official information, the number of cases in the United States has now reached 400,000, while China has stopped at 83,000.

However, the opinions of independent experts around the world regarding Trump's insinuations are divided. Someone supports the US President, someone believes that Trump just once again found a "scapegoat" in the face of the WHO. It is reported that the WHO was the first to declare an emergency situation with the COVID-2019 virus. Recall that initially, Trump regularly gave interviews in the style of the "American population has nothing to fear", "the virus will not survive the warm season". Then, when it became clear that there is still something to fear, and the virus quietly survives in the warm season, Trump abruptly changed his rhetoric, saying that "I knew everything", but "I did not want to sow panic, deprive people of hope." Now - criticism of WHO and threats to cut off funding... You should also compare all of Trump's statements over the past two months with those of doctors, immunologists, virologists, and other competent healthcare professionals. And it turns out that all the doctors warned about the danger of the epidemic, and it was Trump who did not want to take it seriously. Now it is the United States that is leading in the number of cases, and the US President urgently needs to find those responsible for what happened, as the elections are approaching and by November 2020, the reputation needs to be absolutely clean. Therefore, the odious leader of the United States continues to make comments like "if it were not for the government, the number of deaths could be 10 times higher". At WHO itself, they condemn Trump's actions and believe that cutting funding during a pandemic is stupid. It's hard to disagree with them.

Today, the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US will be interesting, which threatens to increase by another 5.25 million. In the UK, quite important reports will also be published, however, once again, it is likely to be ignored by market participants. First, GDP data in monthly and quarterly terms will be published tomorrow. The increase is expected to be a maximum of 0.1% or zero at all. Secondly, the report on industrial production for February will become known. According to experts' forecasts, the indicator may decrease by 2.9% in annual terms. That is, at a time when there was no "coronavirus" epidemic in the Foggy Albion, industrial production was already declining at a rate of 3-4%.

Well, the key event of the day is likely to be the evening meeting of OPEC, where key market players will have to come to a common denominator. If Russia and Saudi Arabia agree to reduce the volume of production of "black gold', then we can expect an increase in oil prices in the coming weeks to the levels of $35-40 per barrel. Maybe even higher. Everything will depend on how much the parties will reduce production. The increase in oil prices will ease the fate of countries that produce and export oil a little. This list includes both the United States and the United Kingdom. It will also support commodity currencies, such as the Russian ruble. If the deal fails again, then oil prices may collapse again and update the already multi-year lows. It is obvious that the failure of the agreement will not add calm to all international markets.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to decline and is currently 159 points. However, the activity of traders on the pound/dollar pair is still quite high, which should be taken into account when opening any positions. On Thursday, April 9, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2250 and 1.2568. However, in reality, trading is now taking place inside the side channel, limited by the Murray levels of "4/8"-1.2207 and "6/8"-1.2451. Thus, the upper limit for the pound today is seen at 1.2451. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a turn of the downward movement inside the channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2329

S2 - 1.2207

S3 - 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2451

R2 - 1.2573

R3 - 1.2695

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour timeframe continues to be inside the side channel. Thus, it is now recommended to trade between the upper and lower border of this channel, that is, between the levels of 1.2207 and 1.2451. Buying the pound with a target of 1.2573 is recommended after the price has fixed above the level of 1.2451. It is recommended to open new sell positions if the bears overcome the moving average and the level of 1.2207 with the first target level of 1.2085.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 9. The first meeting of the Eurogroup failed. Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands oppose

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 23.8793

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to develop an upward movement yesterday and the new trading day starts below the moving average line. Thus, formally, the trend is now again downward. However, we continue to consider the "correction against correction" option, which provides for an upward movement to approximately the level of 1.10, as the main one. Thus, today, we expect a new overcoming of the moving average and the resumption of the upward movement. The overall volatility of the currency pair continues to decline, which is very good, as it suggests that market participants continue to calm down. The main thing is that there are no new "storm warnings".

The big disappointment of the last day was the video conference of the Eurogroup (Council of 19 Finance Ministers of the European Union), which was analogous to a regular meeting, at which the Ministers failed to reach an agreement on financing the European economy for 500 billion euros in aid from the impact of the "coronavirus" pandemic. This was stated by the Chairman of the Eurogroup Mario Centeno at the end of the meeting. According to Mr. Centeno, the meeting online lasted 16 hours, the parties came as close as possible to an agreement, but still could not conclude it. Thus, the new meeting will be held on Thursday, April and negotiations will continue. "The aim of the negotiations is to create a reliable safety cushion for the EU economy in response to the crisis caused by the pandemic. To protect workers, businesses and states, we must adopt a plan that will help the EU economy", said Centeno. However, we believe that the decision to finance 500 billion euros in the economy will still be made. The only reason for the slight delays is that the EU has 27 states and 19 ministers are taking part in the meeting. Thus, it is necessary to protect the interests of at least 19 EU member states. And in any case, it is much more difficult for 19 countries to agree than, for example, it was for the US Congress to adopt a 2-trillion package of measures to help the American economy. However, without this money, the EU economy may collapse even more rapidly. It is no secret that the process has already started. We often talk about the US economy recently and draw parallels with the great depression of the 30s of the last century. So the situation in the European Union is no better. This package must therefore be approved. Mr. Centeno himself understands this, and even before the video conference, he distributed a video speech in which he promised that the Eurogroup would approve the aid package. "I expect EU Finance Ministers to approve a strong response to the pandemic. This will be the largest aid program in the history of the Eurogroup. We need a plan that will help protect the most vulnerable states and guarantee the exit of the European single market from this crisis without losses," Centeno said. Well, the differences, as always in the European Union, consist of the unequal position of all participants. For example, assistance will be provided, of course, to the most affected states. For example, Italy and Spain. However, those states that do not require special assistance will have to "pay" for this assistance. For example, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands oppose the so-called "coronabond". Germany is the most stable state in the European Union in economic terms, the most reliable debtor and quite logically does not want to take on debt obligations for the entire eurozone. "Coronabonds" are government debt securities that are proposed to be issued on behalf of the entire European Union, that is, on behalf of all 27 member states. Accordingly, the debt will be distributed among all participants, and the funds raised will be directed to the most problematic sectors and countries. In our case, this is Italy, Spain, and France. It turns out that the latter will be financed on very favorable terms, and their debts will be paid by countries that themselves cope with the "coronavirus" pandemic. The highest political circles in Germany are already dissatisfied with the current situation, and believe that the pressure on Berlin is increasing. The Germans believe that Italy and Spain are openly demanding help, and believe that it may come to open blackmail. At the same time, we should not forget that Italy already has the largest public debt in the European Union after Greece. The greater the debt, the higher the probability of default. This means that Italian securities are more difficult to place on international securities markets, and investors will have to pay more interest and dividends to get them interested in buying bonds. The joint issue of securities with Germany, Austria, and Finland will be cheaper for Italy, Spain and other countries in a weaker position. According to experts, if the overall package of measures fails, the states most affected by the pandemic will either have to turn to the financial markets for loans, which will further inflate their external debt and may lead to a new debt crisis or refuse to support their own economies in a new crisis, which will inevitably cause mass bankruptcy of companies and high unemployment.

As for the culprit of all that is happening – the "coronavirus". In Italy, the number of infected reached 136,000. In Spain - 147,000. In France - 110,000. The rate of disease growth in some countries is beginning to decline, but it is still too early to tell about the retreat of the epidemic, as well as about the end of quarantines.

On April 8, the European Union is not scheduled to publish any significant publications again. But in the United States, the next report on initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week of April 3 will be published. It is expected that the number of new requests will be 5.25 million. Recall that according to the last two reports, the number of applications for benefits was 3.3 million and 6.6 million. An additional 5.25 million requests may provoke pressure on the US currency, as they will not even allow us to conclude that the situation is improving. Such huge numbers only prove that James Bullard, a member of the Fed's Monetary Committee, was right in his forecasts of unemployment at 25-30%. For the United States, these numbers are death-like. Thus, we believe that this report may cause a sale of the US currency today. Moreover, in recent days, there has been relatively quiet trading of the pair, so a strong macroeconomic background may wake up traders. Also today, the consumer confidence index from the Michigan Institute for April will be released, which, according to experts' forecasts, may fall from 89.1 to 75.0. Until recently, this indicator was consistently above the level of 95.0.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair remains quite high, but continues to decline. As of April 9, the average volatility value is 103 points. We continue to believe that the markets continue to return to normal, however, there may be new outbursts of panic. Today, we expect a further decrease in volatility and price movement between the levels of 1.0761 and 1.0967. The pair is aiming for the level of 1.10, and the upward turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator will indicate a new round of upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.0864

S2 - 1.0742

S3 - 1.0620

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0986

R2 - 1.1108

R3 - 1.1230

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started an upward movement. Thus, traders are now recommended to consider purchases with the goal of the Murray level of "2/8"-1.0986, but after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top and reverse overcoming the moving. It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair not before the price is firmly fixed below the moving average line and the Murray level of "1/8"-1.864 with the first goal being the volatility level of 1.0761.

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EUR/USD. At stake – "big jackpot": the pair waiting for the results of tomorrow's negotiations

The European currency is balancing on the edge of a cliff: if the EU Ministers do not agree on a plan to support the economy within the next day, the EUR/USD pair will collapse not only into the seventh figure, but also return to the lows of this year, that is, to the level of 1.0650. Today's news that the 16-hour negotiations (which did not stop even at night) ended in failure put a lot of pressure on the euro: the bears fell by 70 points in just a few minutes, to the base of the eighth figure. However, the bulls were able to seize the initiative in time, keeping the price from falling into the area of the seventh figure. It became known that the EU Finance Ministers only took a pause in the protracted negotiations. At the same time, officials voiced quite optimistic forecasts: according to them, the parties "came close to a deal", but still could not conclude it – the dialogue will continue on Thursday, April 9.

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The current situation can be characterized by the phrase: "hit or miss". The fact is that the American economy received support from the state a week and a half ago. The adoption of the relevant bill was also preceded by political battles, which, however, ended quite quickly. Republicans and Democrats found a compromise and did not block the law, allocating $2 trillion to fight the coronavirus and neutralize the negative consequences of the epidemic. This money went to additional funding for the health care system, business support, and direct payments to Americans.

Similar steps were expected (and are still expected) from Brussels. Moreover, the Europeans had a chance to even get ahead of the Americans in this regard – the first online summit of EU leaders was held on March 26, but the parties could not agree on the scale and tools to support the economy. The parties went "to the corners of the ring", giving two weeks to eurozone Finance Ministers to develop possible options. In other words, a kind of blitzkrieg to implement the "Marshall Plan" failed, and the situation moved to the stage of protracted negotiations.

This is why EUR/USD traders had such high hopes for yesterday's talks (which ended only this morning). The Reuters insider also added fuel to the fire, according to which the Europeans "have almost agreed" on a 500-billion-dollar financial aid package. In the final version, this package should have included the European Commission's program for financing schemes to protect jobs (the amount of the program is 100 billion euros); the European Investment Bank's business support program - primarily for small and medium-sized enterprises (the amount of the program is 200 billion euros); and the program to support the most vulnerable and affected states by COVID-19 (Italy, Spain, and France). This program of 240 billion euros is planned to be implemented through the European stabilization mechanism.

But after long negotiations, the Eurogroup could not come to a consensus. The main stumbling block was the disagreement between Italy and the Netherlands over the terms on which eurozone governments will raise loans to fight the epidemic. Germany and the "Northern countries" that joined it (Austria, the Netherlands, Finland, and Estonia) still oppose the issue of joint so-called crown bonds. In turn, Italy and Spain still insist on this option. The negotiations again reached an impasse, after which the parties took a pause to reflect on the situation and determine further steps.

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The euro/dollar pair similarly froze in anticipation. Traders do not risk opening large positions – too much money is at stake. And not only of an economic nature, but also of a political one. For the second week, the press has been saying that European countries are undergoing a "test of strength" in the context of solidarity and unity. And if the EU leaders fail this test, the popularity of right-wing and far-right political forces will increase in many countries of the alliance. A similar situation was experienced by Greece when Syriza came to power in 2015 in the wake of the debt crisis and anti-European sentiment. And the current crisis can also cause very serious damage to the European integration processes. For example, Italians are quite sensitive to the position of Germany, especially against the background of increased mortality from COVID-19 and a complete "freeze" of business in their country. According to Conte, now it is not just about the current differences between his country and the German Chancellor, but about a "hard and frank confrontation" about the future course of the European Union.

In other words, today, Europe is sending alarm signals. Brussels shows an inability to act quickly, decisively and, most importantly, in a coherent manner. And if the situation does not change dramatically within the next day, the European currency will be under very strong pressure. To sum up, it should be noted that any trading decisions on the pair at the moment are risky. Now no one can say exactly what scenario will unfold further events. The parties can either come to a compromise or take another pause. In the first case, the pair will test the 10th figure. In the second case, it will be at least in the area of the local minimum of 1.0763. Therefore, both long and short positions on the pair are currently risky – to make trading decisions, you need to wait for the results of tomorrow's negotiations.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD Trendline breakout and Pullback. Further drop expected!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.40802

Reason for Entry: Graphical overlap

Take Profit : 1.38664

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.41638

Reason for Stop loss: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 9, 2020

AUD / USD

The Australian dollar reached its upper target of 0.6249 (February 2009 low) yesterday. Now, the question is: will it turn into a medium-term decline today, or mark the MACD line on the daily time frame (0.6354). The signal line of the Marlin oscillator indicate a reversal, but it does not stop the price from rising by another hundred points.

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On the four-hour chart, there is a sign that an extended divergence on the Marlin oscillator is forming. The signal is twofold; on the one hand, it indicates the intention of the price to move downwards from the current levels, on the other, the divergence may dissolve in the continued growth of the indicator itself.

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A clear signal of a trend reversal will be the price overcoming the support of the MACD line at around 0.6090.

So, with the price overcoming the signal level of 0.6090, it is recommended to open short positions with the target before 0.5820 and stop loss above 0.6115.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 9, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro is not rushing to break through the technical support – the "bullish" mood has slightly strengthened over the past day. The signs of the previous testing of the target range of 1.0955 / 80 have increased before going into a medium-term decline.

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The price has already reached the balance line on the four-hour (H4) chart. The Marlin oscillator feels confident and calm in the growth territory, while breaking through the support of the MACD line at the price of 1.0805 starts a decline towards the target of 1.0615.

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From a practical point of view, opening purchases is associated with an increased risk of uncertainty. Therefore, it is suggested to wait for clear market signals, the first of which may be breaking through the MACD line on the four-hour (H4) chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 9, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen traded in the range of 60 points on Wednesday, exactly on the indicator lines of balance and MACD on the daily chart. Today, the price is trying to break away from these lines up. The 110.20 target as the consolidation range of mid-January and mid-February on the daily chart. The price could return to the range of price channel lines 106.95-107.78, but only after overcoming yesterday's low (108.52).

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On the four-hour chart, the signal line tested the border with the bears' territory and now either turns up or enters the negative zone with an attempt to divert the price to the 106.95-107.78 range.

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The growth potential is not strong at the moment. Growth is limited by the MACD line at around 109.60, which just corresponds to the lower boundary of the January-February consolidation.

Summary: it is advised to consider selling - overcoming the signal level of 108.52 in the first scenario, or later on from the 109.60-110.30 area, which can happen tomorrow or on Monday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options of AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD (H4) from April 09, 2020

Minuette operational scale (daily time frame)

Let's look at the continuation of growth of the "commodity" currencies against the US dollar. Here's an overview of the development options for the movement AUD / USD & USD / CAD & NZD / USD from April 09, 2020

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The development and direction breakdown range :

  • resistance level of 0.6240 - maximum of March 31, 2020;
  • support level of 0.6170 - start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks.

will determine the development of the movement of the Australian dollar from the AUD / USD currency pair on April 9, 2020.

The breakdown of the resistance level 0.6214 on the local maximum will make it possible to continue the upward movement of AUD / USD to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6250 - 0.6300 - 0.6350) and the equilibrium zone (0.6350 - 0.6410 - 0.6470) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Serial breakdown of support levels :

- 0.6170 - the initial SSL line of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- 0.6130 - control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- 0.6110- control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- 0.6080 - start line of SSL Minuette;

will determine the continuation of the development of the downward movement of the Australian dollar to a local minimum of 0.5981, and when updating it further, to the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (0.5810).

We look at the layout of the movement options of AUD / USD on April 9, 2020 on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

From April 9, 2020 the development of the movement of the Canadian dollar from the USD / CAD currency pair will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown range :

  • resistance level of 1.4025 - lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level of 1.3990 - start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Combination of breakdowns:

  • initial SSL (support level of 1.3990) of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • LTL (1.3944) of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • updating the local minimum 1.3919.

will make it relevant to continue the development of the downward movement of the Canadian dollar to the final line FSL (1.3565) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, the breakdown of resistance level 1.4025 on the ISL61.8 Minuette followed by breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.4075) will determine the development of movement USD / CAD within the boundaries of the equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks (1.4025 - 1.4180 - 1.4320) and Minuette (1.4280 - 1.4370 - 1.4460).

We look at the layout of the movement options of USD / CAD on April 9, 2020 on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar from the NZD / USD currency pair on April 9, 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level 0.5980 - control line UTL of the Minuette operational scale forks;
  • support level 0.5937 - start line SSL forks of the Minuette operational scale forks;

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 0.5980 - the control line UTLof the Minuette operational scale forks, the development of the movement NZD / USD will be directed to the goals:

- the initial line SSL (0.6020) of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- local maximum 0.6066;

with the prospect of the price of the instrument reaching the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.6100 - 0.6150 - 1.6200) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Alternatively, returning the New Zealand dollar below the support level 0.5937 on the starting line SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks will lead to the option to continue the downward movement of NSD / USD to the targets:

- local minimum 0.5840;

- the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (0.5710) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

We look at the layout of the movement options of NZD / USD on April 9, 2020 on the animated chart.

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The review was compiled without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or " buy").

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com