Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 04, 2018

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. The pair managed to break above its previous declining trend line, which should confirm a bullish reversal. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning up now, calling for a new rise. Besides, the relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality area at 50. Therefore, as long as 109.25 is support, look for a new bounce to 110.05 and 110.35 in extension.

Fundamental Overview: As far as today's data is concerned Orders for U.S. manufactured goods decreased 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted $494.4 billion in April, the Commerce Department said today. The April 0.8% decrease is below economists' expectations of a 0.5% drop.April's fall was driven in part by a drop in orders for durable or long-lasting,goods and transportation equipment. Also The New York chapter of the Institute for Supply Management said its current business conditions index fell to 56.4 in May from 64.3 in April.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 110.05, 110.35, 110.70

Support levels: 109.25, 108.95, 108.65

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Trading plan for the US session on June 4 for the GBP/USD

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

The pound climbed to the morning resistance levels, but the main target of buyers today is the area of 1.3418, where it is recommended recording profits. In case of GBP/USD decline in the second half of the day, new buying can be considered when forming a false breakout in the area of 1.3349 or on a rebound from 1.3308.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Considering short positions in GBP/USD is best for a rebound from resistance 1.3418, and the main task of sellers for the afternoon will be the pair's return to the morning lows area, to the support of 1.3349.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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AUD/USD: Further growth in question

The Australian dollar began trading week with a sharp leap across the market: paired with the US currency, the "Aussie" jumped almost 100 points.

This price momentum is primarily due to the positive internal data. In particular, the operating profit of Australian companies increased by 5.9% in the first quarter, while the forecast was at the level of three percent. This indicator shows steady growth, although in the third quarter of last year it was in the negative area. Such rapid market reaction to a secondary macroeconomic indicator is due to the fact that it indirectly indicates the growth of inflationary expectations. The structure of the above indicator shows that in the first quarter, not only the annual profit of companies increased, but also wages - by 0.8% in quarterly terms and by 5.1% on an annualized basis. Such dynamics makes it possible to talk about probable growth of price pressure in the foreseeable future.

A somewhat weaker US dollar played a certain role in the northern breakthrough of the AUD/USD pair. As expected, the Friday hype over the strong non-farms payroll data came to naught, and the dollar bulls focused on the US-China trade negotiations. And on this "front" the situation remains complicated. On the weekend, US trade minister Wilbur Ross held talks in Beijing with Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hae. This meeting did not bring any significant results. Moreover, the Chinese official warned that the conclusion of the trade deal is under threat, taking into account Washington's intentions to resort to new tariffs. In turn, the White House yesterday issued a statement on the introduction of new tariffs on goods, which are associated with the national development program "China 2025". In addition, the US intends to impose a restriction on investment activities and to tighten the visa regime for the citizens of China.

Against this backdrop, the dollar index again shows a negative trend, having declined to 93.76 points at the moment. To some extent, the weakness of the greenback is reflected in all dollar pairs, so the positive Australian data only spurred the growth of AUD/USD.

It is worth recalling that tomorrow will be the June meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The rhetoric of the RBA's accompanying statement may provide additional support for the "Aussie", although there is a certain risk. The regulator can focus its attention on problematic issues, voicing a cautious approach. For example, recent reports indicate a slight increase in unemployment (to 5.6%) and a decrease in the rate of inflationary growth (to 0.4% on a monthly basis). As for the growth of the Australian economy as a whole, but to date there are only data for the fourth quarter of last year - the indicator slowed to 0.4% after growth to 0.7% in the third quarter. But the indicator of GDP growth in the first quarter will be published only on Wednesday, that is, after the June meeting of the RBA. The average forecast is optimistic: growth to 0.8%. But this is just a forecast, so the regulator will assess the situation tomorrow only on the available factual data.

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The renewed growth of the Australian dollar also has a downside. The central bank of Australia has repeatedly said that strengthening the national currency will slow the growth of the economy and, above all, inflation. At the moment, the AUD/USD pair has returned to the April highs, so the regulator can express concern about this fact.

Chinese relations with the US can also affect the mood of the regulator's members. This week, China will release data on the trade balance. According to the general forecast, China's trade surplus will grow to $32.5 billion after a modest April figure of $28.8 billion. Chinese exports is expected to grow to 6.3%, but imports – by 16%. This release will be very interesting, in the context of the influence of the US-China trade conflict. China is Australia's main trading partner, therefore, Chinese macroeconomic indicators are of significant importance for the country's economy.

Thus, the most important releases for the RBA will be published after the June meeting, and already published reports show a slowdown in key indicators. This indicates that the regulator is likely to take a cautious and wait-and-see attitude with a high degree of probability. In general, the market does not expect any action from the RBA (according to some analysts, the interest rate may be raised not earlier than in the autumn of 2019), but the pessimistic mood of the regulator's members may slow the northern movement of the AUD/USD.

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From the technical point of view, the situation is also uncertain. On the daily chart, the price went to the Kumo cloud, being on the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator and on the Tenkan-sen line. About the development of the northern trend can only be said when the pair secures above the upper boundary of the cloud Kumo, that is, above the 0.7760 mark. In this case, the indicator Ichimoku Kinko Hyo will generate a bullish "Line Parade" signal, opening the way to the 80th figure. But before overcoming the 0.7760 level, the current momentum looks unreliable, so at the moment we can consider short positions from the current levels, with the first price target 0.7555 (Tenkan-sen line on D1).

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Weekly review of the EUR/USD on June 4, 2018

The dollar, of course, continued to grow, but eventually finished the week at the same values on which it began. So we can say that its growth is at least paused. And all this despite the incredibly good report of the Ministry of Labor. The unemployment rate declined from 3.9% to 3.8%, and 223, 000 new jobs were created outside the agriculture sector. Moreover, the growth rate of the average hourly wage has accelerated from 2.6% to 2.7%. So the content of the text of the report was purely positive. However, the dollar failed to build on this success. This is largely due to preliminary data on inflation in Europe, which showed its acceleration from 1.2% to 1.9%. Given that the dollar is already overbought, even a hint that the ECB may abandon the idea of extending the quantitative easing program was enough to ensure that the dollar stopped growing. Also, market participants were disappointed with weak data on US GDP for the first quarter, as economic growth accelerated from 2.6% to 2.8%, and not to 2.9%, as previously thought.

Data on producer prices in Europe that were published showed a slowdown in their growth from 2.1% to 2.0%, although the acceleration was projected to be 2.4%. But this did not have any effect on the market, as market participants hope that inflation will affect the ECB's plans for a quantitative easing program. Moreover, the growth of retail sales is expected to accelerate from 0.8% to 1.7%, which, combined with inflation, greatly increases the potential profit of investors. Also, the final data on Europe's GDP in the first quarter should confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 2.8% to 2.5%. True, these data have long been priced in the value of a single European currency. In the US, there is no important data, and it is worth paying attention to the data on inventories in wholesale warehouses, which should grow by 0.6%. This can clearly be attributed to negative data, so the dollar has no special reason to continue its growth.

Thus, by the end of the week, the single European currency has good chances to grow to 1.1800 and, perhaps, a little higher.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for June 4, 2018

EUR/JPY

There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on this cross, as a result of vivid weakness that began in the market in April 16. Price has shed roughly 700 pips since then. Last week, the bearish journey continued as price rammed into the demand zone at 125.00, and then bounced upwards (300 pips), without being able to form a confirmed bullish bias.

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This week, a bearish reversal is expected, because of the weakness in EUR and owing to the bearish outlook on JPY pairs. The bearish reversal would enable sellers to enter short at some sensible prices.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for June 4, 2018

USD/JPY

The market is bullish in the long –term, but bearish in the short-term. Since March 26, a long-term bullish journey started, but short-term bearish effort was also started on May 21. The short-term bearishness is still in place and it is supposed to override the long-term bullish bias on the market.

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The long-term bullishness would soon be rendered invalid. This is because there is a very strong bearish outlook on JPY pairs this month, and so, USDJPY would eventually become like other JPY pairs, which are already bearish.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for June 4, 2018

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair trended downwards in the first few days of last week, and then started a bullish correction on May 30. Price went upwards by 200 pips in the context of a downtrend, but the movement was not significant enough to override the extant bearishness in the market (except the resistance line at 1.1800 is exceeded).

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There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and that is supposed to hold for some time. The outlook for EUR pair is strongly bearish for this week and for this month, and so bulls should be careful.

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Global macro overview for 04/06/2018

The political future of Europe and the world trade are at the center of the discussions on the financial markets, but the shift to trading conditions is marginal with the predominance of risk appetite.

At the beginning of the new week, investors are less worried about the developments on the political scene in Italy. The new Prime Minister Conte was sworn in and will lead the coalition government of the Five Star Movement and the Northern League, which certainly suppresses fears of expedited elections, but will not silence speculation as to how this Eurosceptics and oppositionists' coalition will last. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds is down to 2.63% (last week it was 3.44% for a moment), but we are still far away from the level of 2.0% from the beginning of May.

The weekend meeting of the G7 finance ministers before the upcoming summit of leaders turned into the US versus the rest of the world, where the remaining six expressed "unanimous concern and disappointment" in the commercial policy of President Trump. The last week's statement about the lack of a prolongation of steel and aluminum import exemptions for the EU, Mexico and Canada warms up the atmosphere and scrambles the wounds that emerged in the first quarter when Trump pushed the US agenda to strengthen international trade. Then, the initial effect on the USD was negative (he stressed Trump's incalculable damage to the currency), even if in the long run it could mean a reduction in imports and an improvement in the trade balance. In addition, the unleashing of trade wars will hit the risk appetite, which indirectly attracts capital to the USD.

Only because the opinion of Trump is often changeable (see the cancellation of appeals of the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Unem), the market is not quite up to fears about trade wars without hard resolutions, and the turmoil of recent days could "tame" investors and everyone counts for a moment of calm. From a macro perspective, it is better than it can be, as the solid NFP report reminded us on Friday and the higher-than-expected ISM will give US industry. Thus, the stock market is climbing up, EUR has a rally of relief due to Italy, and good data and risk-on mode abolish for USD. The problem is that markets remain vulnerable to unexpected twists and risk factors, so the vigilance is required.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trying to break through the important technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1710 - 1.1726. In this breakout will last, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1756 and even 1.1829. The positive and quite strong momentum supports the short-term bullish bias, but in a case of a failure, the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1661 and 1.1644. Any slide below the level of 1.1606 will likely extend the move downward toward the level of 1.1580. The technical support at the swing low at the level of 1.1509 is still the key level for bulls.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for June 4, 2018

On Monday, the following is strong calendar news:

- 8.30 London time. BP, the index of business activity in the construction sector (May). The expected value is 52.0 compared to the previous value of 52.5.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Friday, the price continued to move up. On Monday, the price will most likely continue to move upwards with the first target of 1.3374 and a pullback level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line). A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the GBP / USD pair will move up towards the first goal at 1.3374 with the recession level of 14.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 4, 2018

On Monday, the release of strong calendar news is not expected and the market will work on the technical analysis.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Friday, the price of the news rolled back down. On Monday, the upward movement will most likely continue towards the first target of 1.1758 with the recoil level of 23.6% (blue dotted line). A complex analysis will more accurately determine where the price will go next.

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Fig. 2 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion.

On Monday, the market will move up towards the first target of 1.1758 and a recoil rate of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

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Weekly review from 4 to 9 June 2018 of the GBP / USD pair

On a monthly chart, the price reached the ascending support line of 1.3203 from January 2017. The third touch point of the support line is a good starting point for working upward. The upward movement will most likely continue.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the price moved down and reached the support line of the rising channel, after which the price rolled back up. The candlestick analysis also confirms the top work with the top target of 1.3478 and the retracement level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line). How much the probability of this scenario will likely be shown by a comprehensive analysis.

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Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly graph - up.

Conclusion on the complex analysis is an upward movement.

The total result of calculating the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly chart: the price for the week will probably have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle and the absence of the second upper shadow.

The upper target is 1.3478 with the retracement level is 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Weekly review from 4 to 9 June 2018 of the EUR / USD pair

There is an ascending channel from January 2017. The price went up after testing the support line of this channel 1.1511 (white thick line). Next week, the market may continue to move up, with the first goal of 1.1758 and a pullback rate of 23.6%.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

On Tuesday, the price moved down reached the ascending trend of support line at 1.1539 then started moving up. As a rule, the third point of contact of the support line is a good starting point to increase with the probability of 70%. Next week, the upward movement will most likely continue.

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Fig. 2 (weekly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up (blue dotted line);

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- monthly chart - down.

Conclusion on the complex analysis is an upward movement.

The total result in calculating the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair on a weekly chart: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the absence of the first lower shadow of a weekly white candle and the absence of a second upper shadow.

The first top target of 1.1558 is the rolling level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 04, 2018

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GBP/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is clearly in an upward trend, backed by its rising 20-day moving average. A strong support has formed around 1.3335, which should limit any downside room. Furthermore, the relative strength index is on the upside, without showing any reversal signal. Hence, as long as 1.3335 is not broken, likely advance to 1.3425 and 1.3460 in extension.

Fundamental Overview: Earlier today UK construction PMI remain came out at 52.2, unchanged U.K. construction PMI for May has left the pound largely unchanged as well. The details of the survey revealed commercial activity growth accelerated to a three-month high in May, but showed softer expansions in residential and civil engineering activity, according to the release. New order books meanwhile contracted for the fourth time in the past five months amid general uncertainty in the sector.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.3425, 1.3460, 1.3500

Support levels: 1.3335, 1.3310, 1.3285

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Analysis of gold for June 04, 2018

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Recently, the gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,293.00. According to the H1 time frame, I found a potential end of the downward correction phase (abc), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a broken intraday supply trendline, which is a sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of $1,314.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,298.10

R2: $1,299.40

R3: $1,300.20

Support levels:

S1: $1,296.00

S2: $1,295.20

S3: $1,293.20

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 4, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needs obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 is currently considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

Any bullish breakout above the price level of 0.7050 hinders further bearish decline allowing bullish pullback to occur towards 0.7170-0.7220.

On the other hand, If bearish momentum persists, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 will be the next destination for the NZD/USD pair. It should be watched for bullish rejection and a possible valid BUY entry.

The current bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) should be watched for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.7100.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 4, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair keeps trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range remains broken.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) failed to offer sufficient bullish demand when a descending high was established around the price level of 1.1980.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, significant bearish pressure is being applied since then.

As bearish momentum dominates, bearish persistence below 1.1700-1.1750 (zone of previous daily lows) was maintained to enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1520 and probably 1.1420.

The price zone (1.1520-1.1415) is considered a prominent Demand zone to be watched for bullish price action and valid BUY entries. Early signs of bullish rejection have already been expressed around 1.1500 (the lower limit of the depicted demand zone).

On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) for valid SELL entries if the current bullish pullback persists.

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Bitcoin analysis for June 04, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is a sign that demand is in control. I also found a testing of a rising upward trendline (support), which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential breakout of the bullish flag to confirm an upward continuation. The upward targets are set at the price of $7,769 and $8,093.

Support/Resistance

$7,753 – Intraday resistance

$7,515– Intraday support

$7,769 – Objective target 1

$8,093 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of EUR/USD for June 04, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1723. On the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a potential end of consolidation after the breakout, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at 1.1830 and 1.1960.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1715

R2: 1.1735

R3: 1.1755

Support levels:

S1: 1.1675

S2: 1.1655

S3: 1.1635

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 04, 2018

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Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 1.1770, 1.1795, and 1.1840

Support levels: 1.1645, 1.1590, and 1.1550

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Indicator analysis. Monthly review of the GBP / USD pair for June 2018

The price closed above the support line 1.3284 (the white thick line), which means that the upstream channel operates in January 2017. According to the traditional approach, touching the price for the third time of the support line gives the probability of the upper work by 70%.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

In May, the price moved down but after testing the support line (white thick line), it went up. In June, it is possible for the upward movement to continue towards the first target with the recessionary level of 23.6% at 1.3479 (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (monthly chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

Conclusion on complex analysis is possibly upward.

The total result in the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on the daily chart: the price will be the most likely to have an upward trend candle and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week is black).

The upper target is 1.3479 with the retracement level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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Indicator analysis. Monthly review of the EUR / USD pair for June 2018

The market has an ascending channel from January 2017, until the price has not closed below the support line 1.1619 (white thick line). According to the traditional approach, touching the price for the third time of the support line gives the probability of the upper work by 70%.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

In May, the price moved down but after testing the support line (white thick line), it went up. In June, it is possible to re-test the support line but the downward breakdown is unlikely. When moving upward, the first target is the retraceable level of 23.6% at 1.1756 (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 2 (monthly chart).

Complex analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - upwards;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

Conclusion on complex analysis is possibly upward.

The total result in calculating the candle of the EUR / USD currency pair on a monthly chart: the price will most likely have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow (the first week of the month - the lower one) of the monthly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow (last week is black).

The first upper target is 1.1756 with the recoil level of 23.6% (blue dotted line).

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Overview of USD / JPY on June 4 on simplified wave analysis

The analysis of the highest TF of the chart of the main pair of yen shows a downward trend. The last, unfinished plot of February 16 is ascending. The preliminary target zone is approximately in 5 price figures above the current price.

The wave pattern of the graph H1:

As part of the main bullish trend, a downward trend is forming from May 21 downward. In the structure of the wave, it will take the place of correction. The wave is not complete. Calculation of the probable course indicates the support zone as the upper boundary of the site.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

As part of the trend of a larger wave in recent weeks, the price began to form a hidden correction. Since May 29, quotes have gone up, forming the final part (C).

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Recommended trading strategy:

When trading large sections of the schedule traders need to wait for the completion of the entire bear correction. In daily trading on the completion of this wave, you can take profit.

Resistance zones:

- 109.80 / 110.30

Support zones:

- 107.80 / 107.30

Explanations to the figures: Simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). At each TF the last incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure, dotted - the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

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The daily review of GBP / JPY for June 4, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / JPY

The expectations of the Friday forecast are fulfilled. The players on the increase managed to realize a retreat from the lower boundary of the weekly cloud (144.21) and the target for the breakdown of the daytime cloud (143.08), as a result of which they managed to rise to the resistance area of the day Tenkan (146.44). In this situation, the main plans for players to raise are in the breakdown of the clouds H4 (146,57-73) and the liquidation of the day's cross. Perhaps, for the implementation of these tasks, players will have to take a pause to raise. Important support today should be noted at 145.60 (Tenkan H4 + Kijun H1) and 144.94 (Kijun H4 + cloud H1), while keeping the activity and opportunities for bulls is better to limit the decline to within 145.60. Overcoming the resistance of the H4 cloud will form the next upward target and will open the way to resistances of older time intervals.

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Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for June 4. Pound sterling shows signs of recovery

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Analysis of wave counting:

On June 1, the GBP / USD currency pair added about 100 percentage points and once again, indicated the desire to proceed to the construction of the correctional wave 2, as part of a downward set of waves. At the same time, given the news background, the British pound may again fall under the sell-off, and the proposed wave 1, a, may further complicate its structure. Nevertheless, now there are no visible obstacles to further increase of quotations with the first targets, located around 1.3550. Near this level or a little higher, it will be possible to consider a return to sales of the tool in terms of building wave 3, a.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3528 - 127.2% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

1.3555 - 200.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.3045 - 200.0% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The attempt to complete the construction of wave 1, a, still looks not entirely convincing. At the same time, I recommend selling the pair close and preparing to build an upward wave 2, a. The current price levels are attractive for the formation of small purchases with the aim being in the area of figure 35 and slightly higher. I recommend returning to sales after the completion of the construction of wave 2 or after receiving confirmation of the complication of wave 1, a.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for June 4. Euro continues attempts to form the first waves of the upward trend

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Analysis of wave counting:

The trades of the currency pair EUR / USD on Friday passed in different directions. The tool failed to break through the 161.8% Fibonacci mark, but this seems to be a temporary occurrence. Now, wave counting assumes the continuation of quotations increases within the first waves of the new upward trend part in wave 3, the goals of which are much higher than 25 figures. The objectives of the first wave 1 are about 18 figures, after which a correction wave 2 is expected to be built at wave 1, which in time can confirm the transition of the pair to the construction of the ascending trend part, rather than to a strong correctional wave with further complication of the internal wave structure of the wave c, 2.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1542 - 261.8% of Fibonacci

1.1438 - 323.6% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1835 - 200.0% of the Fibonacci of the highest order

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to build the proposed wave 1, 1. On this basis, it is recommended to continue the formation of purchases with the first targets located near the estimated mark of 1.1835, which is equivalent to 200.0% of Fibonacci. I recommend returning to sales after receiving confirmation of the complication of the wave c, 2, that is below the minimum of May 29.

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Important changes in market sentiment

The good data on the US economy, which came out on Friday in the afternoon, led only to a temporary increase in the US dollar, which was quickly won back. The euro and the pound managed to regain their positions by the close of the week and maintain their upside potential.

The good data on the labor market and the manufacturing sector, after which, it would seem, there should be a strong growth in the US dollar, only indicate a change in the sentiment of investors, which record profit on the US dollar in favor of risky assets. At the same time, a number of speculative players continue to count on a new wave of US dollar growth, putting on already won expectations of an increase in interest rates.

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the unemployment rate in the United States has fallen again, which indicates a good labor market.

Thus, the number of jobs outside agriculture in May 2018 increased by 223,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 3.9%. There was also an increase in the average hourly earnings in the US in May by 2.7% compared to the same period last year.

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Economists had expected that the number of jobs would show only a growth of 190,000, while unemployment would remain unchanged at 3.9%.

A good report on growth in activity in the manufacturing sector also provided only temporary support to the US dollar. According to the Institute of Supply Management ISM, the index of supply managers for the US manufacturing sector in May rose to 58.7 points from 57.3 points in April. Economists had expected that in May, the figure would be 58.1 points. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

The construction costs in the US in April also increased, indicating the excellent condition of the construction sector.

According to the US Department of Commerce, construction costs in April this year rose 1.8% compared to the previous month and amounted to 1.310 trillion US dollars. Economists had expected that the monthly increase in spending in April would be 0.8%.

Fed representative Neel Kashkari commented on the report on the labor market on Friday, saying that, given the low unemployment, expects more rapid growth in wages in the US. Kashkari also continues to believe that there are unused labor resources in the US, which need to be addressed.

After the introduction by the US of duties on imports of steel and aluminum in relation to the EU countries, EU representatives immediately announced their intention to challenge these tariffs in the World Trade Organization. Also, retaliatory measures will be taken against American goods.

All this suggests that, as if European politicians did not try to avoid a trade war with the US, apparently, this will not work.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of AUD / USD on June 4, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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AUD / USD

The spent daily target (0.7499), reinforced by the final border of the monthly golden cross (0.7523), coped with the role of support and restriction of the decline in this area. At the moment, the pair is testing the first targets for the upward correction (weekly Tenkan 0.7613 + week Senkou Span B 0.7640 + day cloud). The result of the interaction will determine whether the players will be able to continue the ascent or the event will be limited to the implementation of the retest. The breakdown of the resistances encountered and fastening in the bullish zone relative to the daytime cloud (0.7665 - 0.7700) will form the subsequent targets for continuing the rise and strengthening of bullish sentiments. The landmarks are the upward daily target for cloud breakdown, the monthly Tenkan (0.7775) and the final lines of the weekly cross Ichimoku (Kijun 0.77775 + Fibo Kijun 0.7860). In the case of a successful retest, the value will be the recovery of the downtrend (the minimum extremum is 0.7413) and the execution of the weekly downward target on the breakdown of the cloud.

Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 4 EUR / USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Consider buying euro can be after a breakthrough and consolidation on the resistance level of 1.1709, which opens the possibility for further upward correction to areas of 1.1775 and 1.1828, where I recommend fixing the profits. Forming a false breakdown of the support level of 1.1653 will also be an additional signal to buy. Otherwise, you can open long positions on a rebound from 1.1597.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

Failure to consolidate above the level of 1.1709 with a return to this level will be the first signal for the opening of short positions in euros with the main goal of returning to the support level of 1.1653, where the pressure on the pair will increase even more, which will lead to a large area of 1.1597, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above the level of 1.1709 in the morning, sales can be searched from the levels of 1.1775 and 1.1828.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the European session on June 4 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The break and consolidation above the level of 1.3379 will be a good signal for the opening of long positions in the pound, in the expectation of a further upward trend towards the highs of 1.3418 and 1.3476, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a pound drop in the morning, the formation of a false breakout at the level of 1.3343 with the update of the 30-day moving average will also serve as an excuse for opening long positions.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The failure to fix and return to the resistance level of 1.3379 will be the first signal to the likely downward movement in the pound, with a return and consolidation below the support level at 1.3343, where the bears will quickly push the pair into the area of 1.3308. In the case of growth above the level of 1.3379, you can sell a pound on a rebound from 1.3418.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan 04/06/2018

Trading plan 04/06/2018

General picture: All attention to trade disputes between the US and the EU and China.

At the weekend was the "Big Seven". The main theme was the decision of Trump to introduce new import duties in the US steel and aluminum, for the US allies (Europe, Canada) and for China. All the US trading partners opposed Trump united front, the US in isolation.

A new summit of the Seven is due to take place this week. Already at the level of the heads of the countries, Trump said at the weekend that he is firm in his decisions on duties. This will be the main theme of the week.

GBP / USD: We are buying from 1.3350, we expect growth.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for June 04, 2018

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AUD/USD is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair broke above the declining trend line since May 31, which confirmed a bullish outlook. The 20-day moving average turned up and crossed above the 50-day one. The relative strength index is mixed to bullish. Therefore, as long as 0.7600 holds on the downside, look for a rebound to 0.7670. A break above this level would trigger another rise to 0.7685.

Fundamental Overview: Eearlier today, the Australian retail sales increased by 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. Previously it was atv 0.0%. The data pushed AUD/USD higher. As for other news, the Australian job ads rose 1.5% last month, more than reversing the cumulative 0.7% drop from February-April. Year-over-year, growth accelerated to 11.5% in May from April's 8.7%. ANZ calls it quite encouraging to see job ads' May performance, coming at a time that other forward indicators of the labor market remain positive.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7670, 0.7685, and 0.7715

Support levels: 0.7580, 0.7560, and 0.7525

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD for the week of June 4 by simplified wave analysis

Wave picture of the D1 chart:

Quotations of the pair since December 2016 formed a bullish trend wave. The wave is not yet complete. On a weekly chart scale, it took the place of the final part of the outlined figure "expanded flat".

The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

In a larger bearish wave of the hourly scale, the last section starts counting from the end of March. The price has reached the upper limit of the potential reversal area of large TF.

The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

As part of the main trend since May 29, the price is rolling back up. The wave analysis shows a rather high potential for the upcoming recovery.

Recommended trading strategy:

Signals of a short-term trend change are not yet available, while purchases are premature. In the area of determined resistance, short-term sales of the instrument are possible.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1820 / 1.1870

Support zones:

- 1.1520 / 1.1470

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Explanations to the figures: Simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). Every TF shows that the last incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a reversal.

Arrows indicate the wave counting according to the technique used by the trader. The solid background shows the generated structure, dotted - the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from your trading systems!

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 06/04/2018

Burning forecast 06/04/2018 EURUSD: Waiting for growth. The focus of the discussion is the United States of America and the United States of America. This trade conflict was the main topic at the meeting of the Group of Seven over the weekend at the level of the Ministry of Finance. The EU and Canada acted as a united front against Trump's decisions. Expect the dollar to fall against this background. Buy the euro from 1.1725; stop at 1.1680; Profit at 1.1900. Alternative: Sell the euro from 1.1508.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading signals for today - June 4

Despite the defamation of Bitcoin in favor of the other, the cryptocurrencies of the various news agencies, the positions of Bitcoin are still quite strong. The daily volume of Bitcoin trades is $ 4.880 billion, after Tether which has a turnover of 2.711 billion dollars, followed by the ambitious Ethereum in the third place with 1.841 billion dollars. And in any case, increased activity on the market.

Such an increasing activity is now observed for all the top ten.

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On the daily chart, the price formed a global rising price channel, the correctness of which is confirmed by its upper line which exactly coincided in the two maxima(the border of the channel is marked by thick lines, the touch points are ticked). Practically, half a year's price convergence with the Marlin oscillator confirms the "bottom" of the price on the support line of the indicated price channel. In case of price increase, the first internal line of the channel appears at about 10493. Further, the Fibonacci ray can be worked out at 76.4% in the range of 11121-11613, the lower limit of which coincides with the minimum of December 22 last year (marked with a red cross).

But the formation of a complete signal does not have enough two points: the output of the Marlin oscillator signal line over the zero line and fixing the price over the blue line on the price chart. Such an opening signal will take place with the price reaching the mark of 7775. The first resistance will be the balanced price line on the chart (red) at around 8430. Overcoming this level would likely add to the open position.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro was pierced but we will wait for clarification of the situation

Last Friday, US data on Labor and Manufacturing PMI came out excellent but the euro lost just 32 points, which includes fix profits of fleeting purchases and partly on the conclusion of the coalition agreement in Spain that cancels summer re-elections and removes the risk of non-acceptance of the budget. Giuseppe Conte retains the post of Prime Minister, while Paolo Savona is approved by the Minister for Relations with the EU, and Matteo Salvini became the Minister of the Interior, as Giovanni Trivia take the post as the Minister of Finance.

The number of jobs outside the US agricultural sector in May grew by 223 thousand against the forecast of 189 thousand, but the April figure was revised down from 164 thousand to 159 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped to 2000 and 1969 levels to 3.8% . However, it mainly due to the decrease in the proportion of economically active population from 62.8% to 62.7%. Particularly, the increase in the wages to 0.3% against 0.1% pleased April. The business activity index in the manufacturing sector from the ISM Institute in May showed an increase from 57.3 to 58.7 with an expected rate of 58.3. Construction costs for April increased by 1.8% against the forecast of 0.8%. Manufacturing PMI from Markit in the final estimate for May was revised down from 56.6 to 56.4.

On the same day, the Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in the final assessment of May estimate remained unchanged at 55.5 points. Stock index S&P 500 increased by 1.08%.

Today, Spain is expected to have some improved data on employment as the number of unemployed for May is expected to decrease by 105 thousand versus -86 thousand in April. The investor confidence index in the eurozone Sentix may fall from 19.2 to 18.6, while the producer price index (PPI) for April is expected to grow by 0.2% after 0.1%.

In the United States, the volume of factory orders for April will be published with a forecast of -0.4% versus 1.6% in March.

Tomorrow, the euro area is expected to grow by 0.5% in retail sales in April, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in May rose 57.9 from 56.8. We are waiting for a sideways trade in the range of 1.1620-1.1720.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Business sentiment in the UK is unstable

GBP / USD

On Friday, the pound sterling skillfully took advantage of mixed sentiment in Europe and the US, and with the support of growth by the British Manufacturing PMI from 53.9 to 54.4 in the May estimate (against the forecast for a decline to 53.5), the pound grew by 52 points. Also in the current situation, the pound has a clear advantage over the euro, until the US and the EU finally stop at any decision on trade tariffs. This reflected in market as the trend of the cross pair EUR / GBP declines.

Today, the business activity index in May construction sector is expected to decrease from 52.5 to 52.0. We are expecting the British pound to trade near the level of 1.3330.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 04/06/2018

The American economy has created 223,000 new vacancies in May and this is definitely more than the median of forecasts, which was at the level of 190,000. A month ago, the change in employment amounted to 162,000 new jobs, so the data not only beat the expectations, but beat the previous month reading as well. Moreover, the data for April and March were reviewed in total by 15,000 up. The unemployment rate has dropped further, amounting to 3.8% and contrary to the consensus, did not remain at 3.9% and now is on the lowest levels in history. The key variable for the dollar prospects is recently the wage pressure. The payroll growth rate was 0.3% m/m and 2.7%y/y, so this part of the job report did not disappoint as well.

Another pleasant surprise form the US was the publication of ISM index data for the manufacturing sector: readings exceeded expectations of 58.7 (forecast: 58.2) and the most of the sub-components were moving further into expansion territory as well. In the wake of other indicators of the economic climate, the index indicates the good condition of the US economy.

To sum up: every indicator illustrating the condition of the labor market in the US was better than expected, clearing the way for a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the June meeting despite renewed concerns about the European debt crisis and global trade relations.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has almost hit the larger time frame technical resistance zone between the levels of 95.15 - 95.55. Nevertheless, the bulls failed here and broke out of the channel, which was briefly tested from below after a temporary support has been established at the level of 93.71. The market is currently in the middle of the intraday range, but the conditions are oversold, so another possible test of the level of 94.60 might come soon. Otherwise, if the support at the level of 93.71 is violated, then the next technical support is seen at the levels of 93.42, 93.29 and 93.11.

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Nothing threatens the dollar

On Friday, a report on the US labor market for May was published. The report was unexpectedly strong. The number of new jobs increased by 223 thousand, which significantly exceeded the forecast of 188 thousand. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% against 3.9% a month earlier. The average hourly wage grew by 0.3%, exceeding April's 0.1%, and the expectations of experts.

Strong growth of the labor market was supposed to provoke a wave of dollar purchases but the market reacted surprisingly quietly, limiting itself to a short-term surge in volatility. There are several reasons for such a reaction, and the main one is connected with fears of a rapid approach of the recession in the USA.

The nearest expanded meeting of the FOMC is just over a week away and the markets are busy trying to predict its results. Regarding the growth rate, there is no doubt that the consolidated opinion of market participants, according to CME, is that the Fed will raise the rate by a quarter of percent, as previously predicted. The main question is how the forecast for the rate will change before the end of 2018 and in the future for 2019.

This question is important in order to understand whether there is a chance of recovering the yield curve above the long-term average. At the moment, the difference between the yields of 10-year and 3-month treasury securities is below the long-term average, which is 1.51%, and has a tendency to further decline. As practice shows, the inversion of the yield curve always occurs before the recession.

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Moreover, and the unemployment rate may indicate an approaching decline, its decline to historically low values usually precedes the onset of a recession following a sharp increase. Historical studies show that the inversion of the yield curve and the reduction of unemployment to the minimums usually occur 8-16 months before the recession begins, which means that the economic downturn in the US may begin already in the first half of 2019.

Thus, markets can evaluate strong employment data in the opposite way, an increase in average wages will increase inflationary pressures and increase the likelihood of accelerating the growth rate of short-term interest rates of the Fed, which in turn will bring the recession to a close.

We have repeatedly pointed out that the Trump tax reform will contribute to a sharp increase in the budget deficit. Accelerating the growth rate of the Fed rate will also increase pressure on the budget, as the government's debt servicing costs will grow proportionally. Attempts by the government to eliminate the trade deficit may lead to the opposite result. The growth of tariffs will result in an increase in the cost of imports, which will reduce consumer activity of the population and again put pressure on the collection of taxes.

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The trade war with China and the European Union will not stop the fall in employment in the US, or liquidate the trade deficit, but the welfare of American consumers will be reduced, guaranteed. The threat of losing the US to the status of a global trade leader is growing, as the sanctions policy and trade wars inevitably led to the de-dollarization of the world economy.

Thus, the dollar rally is clearly short-term. As soon as the first signs of economic slowdown appear, the dollar will reverse and fall against most competitors. These fears are taken into account by investors and will help to slow growth.

On Tuesday, one should pay attention to reports on business activity in May from Markit and ISM in the services sector. On Wednesday, the trade balance and data for the 1st quarter on labor productivity and wage growth will be published. They can influence the expectations of the FOMC meeting and, as a consequence, the volatility of the dollar.

In general, we must proceed from the fact that in the short term, the dollar may resume its growth, since the US economy is not threatened with the recession until before the end of the year, but the spread of yields will grow in its favor. For the next week, the prospects for the dollar are good, as is confirmed by the Friday report of the CFTC, which showed the growth of speculative positions in the dollar against the euro and the yen. Against the franc, the odds remain significant, which indicates a rather strong demand for risk and no fears of an early recession.

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The growth of the euro will be short-lived

Eurozone

The euro managed to somewhat stabilize its position in the foreign exchange market after a month and a half of a steady decline. The reason was the first signs of slowing down in the decline of business activity. According to Markit, the PMI in the production area of the eurozone for the month of May remained stable while a slight increase was noted in Germany which was, besides preliminary data on inflation show growth, much higher than forecasts.

At the same time, these factors are unlikely to have a significant impact on the mood of players. The dynamics of the EURUSD pair will be determined by the main driver, which has been operating for the past 10 years: the growing spread between US and euro-zone bonds. The euro, at the end of 2017, attempted growth, which was justified by rumors of an impending curtailment of the asset repurchase program and the transition to normalization of interest rates. These rumors supported the euro for more than six months. One is currently clear that the ECB does not have any clear plans to move to a tight monetary policy and the markets do not expect the first rate hike before the second half of 2019.

The spread between 5-year US and German bonds is steadily growing in favor of the former, and therefore short-term attempts at euro growth will be sold out, and the EURUSD pair will continue to decline.

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In Italy, the government has finally been formed, the power in the country has shifted to eurosceptics, which will strengthen the centrifugal sentiment in the euro area and will exert pressure on the euro. On Monday and Tuesday the new government will be approved in the parliament with priorities that can have a significant impact on the overall volatility of the euro.

Macroeconomic data is unlikely to have a significant impact on sentiment. On Monday, the EURUSD may decline to 1.1585.

United Kingdom

The pound makes active attempts to form a local minimum and stop the fall. Part of the improvement in the mood for the pound is due to positive statistics. The consumer confidence index from Gfk slightly increased in May from -9p. up to -7p, the Bank of England found a noticeable growth in consumer lending in April, while the PMI Markit index in the manufacturing sector in May rose to 54.4p after 6 months of decline.

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This week, there is only one release, which can have a significant impact on the mood: PMI in the services sector for May. The key indicator of the strength of the British economy declined in 4 of the last 6 months. At the moment, negative forecasts have been replaced by neutral ones. The Lloyd barometer indicates some revival in May, taking into account the stabilization of PMI in the manufacturing sector, one can hope for some rebound in the services sector.

The Brexit factor is unlikely to have a significant market sentiment in the near future, as it is still a long time before the EU summit which will be held on June 28-29. Until this time, the key meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place. The results now look much more important for the markets.

The pound is weak, despite attempts to form a bottom at the 6-month low. Corrective growth can raise the GBPUSD pair to 1.3460 but one must assume that attempts at growth will be highly likely to sell out. The pound will seek the support zones of 1.2830 / 70 in the next two weeks.

Oil

Oil is stable at the opening of trading on Monday. The increase in production in the US does not affect quotes due to inadequate transport infrastructure. The spread between the shipment price of shale oil and the Gulf of Mexico coast reached $ 20 by June 1.

The likely increase in OPEC + production before the June 22 summit will remain to be just rumors. The market is frightened by the contraction of supplies and the balance between supply and demand has not yet developed. A strong US employment report did not lead to a noticeable increase in the dollar index. The probability of testing the May low at 74.55 is not high, the trade will continue in the range with gravity to the upper limit above $ 79 / bbl.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of EUR/USD for June 4, 2018

The EUR/USD pair has reached the weekly Kumo (cloud) support. In the same area around the cloud support, we also find the long-term 38% Fibonacci retracement support. Last week's candle is a bullish reversal hammer candlestick pattern. This reversal will be confirmed on a weekly close above last week's high.

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Support is last week's lows at 1.15096. Resistance is at 1.1970. I believe we should at least expect a bounce towards that area if not higher. A weekly close above 1.2050 will be a bullish sign. We believe any pull back should be seen as a buying opportunity. Short-term support is at 1.1616 and resistance at 1.1725. A break above 1.1725 will signal that the next leg higher has started.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 04/06/2018

Financial media reports that Estonia withdrew its plan to issue the national cryptocurrency of Estcoin after criticism from the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, and local banks.

Managing director of the Estonian e-residency program, Kaspar Korjus, proposed the creation and release of Estcoin in August last year. In addition to becoming the national virtual currency of Estonia, Estcoin would also turn into an official currency for the e-residency program. In the Estcoin program, it would be an incentive for foreigners using the electronic identification of Estonia to remotely sign documents and set up companies. Draghi said in September that "no Member State can enter its own currency; the currency of the euro area is the euro. " According to Siim Sikkut, the official responsible for the national IT strategy, Estcoin will now be just an impulse for e-residents: "We agreed in our conversations with politicians that Estcoin would act as a means to transactions within the e-resident community. There are no other options. We are not building a new currency" - Sikkut said in an interview.

Korjus confirmed Sikkut's statements saying that "social Estcoin" is still being analyzed. He added that Estcoin will definitely not be a national cryptocurrency. Draghi's position was supported by the Governor of the Bank of Estonia, Ardo Hansson, who complained about the false reports of Estcoin coming from government agencies.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has broken through the golden trend line and made a new local high at the level of $7,757, which is still below the key technical resistance at the level of $7,890. Currently, the market is testing the weekly pivot at the level of $7,523. In order to continue the upward move, the bulls must break through the resistance at the level of $7,890 and head towards the level of $8,556. Otherwise, the bears might try to push the prices back under the golden trend line again or lower.

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Technical analysis of Gold for June 4, 2018

Gold price was unable on Friday to break above the medium-term resistance of $1,305 and pulled back below $1,300 towards $1,290. We continue to consider this pull back as a buying opportunity and that Gold will eventually and most probably this week break higher towards $1,310-20.

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Yellow line - medium-term resistance

Red lines - extension targets

Green lines - Fibonacci targets

Purple line - short-term support

Short-term support was broken on Friday and that is why we see a deeper pullback in Gold prices. Resistance is at $1,298. A break above this level will increase dramatically the chances of breaking above the triple top at $1,305. If this happens our first target is at $1,310-12 and next at $1,330. I buy pull backs and remain bullish on Gold.

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Trading plan for 04/06/2018

After the weekend, the dollar is slightly weaker than the other major currencies with AUD on highs after good data from Australia. Despite solid macro data from the US on Friday, the dollar cannot develop a stronger rally, as the uncertainty surrounding political risks hampers the enthusiasm of investors. USD/JPY remains blocked at 109.75. EUR/USD is trying to break through 1.17 (for now, unsuccessfully), finding support in calming the situation on the Italian political scene, where the vision of repeated elections is distancing. The stock market in Asia is doing well, influenced by a positive climate from Friday caused after the good data from the US labor market was released. Japanese Nikkei225 gains 1.5% and Chinese Shanghai Composite grows by 0.6%. Crude oil remains under pressure of worries about rising global stocks of gas, and Friday data on the growth of active drilling rigs in the US (+2) fuel concerns. On Monday, WTI is relatively stable at $65.75 after it had a two-month low on Friday.

On Monday 4th of June, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Construction PMI data from the UK, Sentix Investor Confidence and PPI data from the Eurozone and Factory Orders form the US.

AUD/USD analysis for 04/06/2018:

For now, AUD wins Monday's trading with the help of a set of local data. Retail sales in April increased by 0.4% against expected 0.3$. Operating profits of companies in the first quarter increased by 5.9% versus the expected 3.1% and 2.8% quarter before, which raises expectations before the publication of GDP on Wednesday.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the data release, the market has broken through the technical resistance at the level of 0.7603 and then broke out the nearby 50% Fibo at the level of 0.7611. The momentum remains strong, so the bullish outlook is now preferred as long as the buy side is in control of the market. The next target is seen at the level of 0.7642 or at 61% Fibo at the level of 0.7659. The zone between those two levels is the key zone for the bears, because if the bulls will break through it, the next target is seen at the level of 0.7743.

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"The Australian" plays pranks

AUD / USD

With the opening of the new trading week, the Australian dollar jumped up sharply against unexpectedly good economic data. Retail sales in April increased by 0.4% against the forecast of 0.2% and 0.0% in March. The gross profit of companies in the 1st quarter showed an increase of 5.9% against the expectations of 3.0% and for the 4th quarter, the indicator was revised up to 2.8% from 2.2%. Inventories for the same period increased by 0.7% against the forecast of 0.1%. The number of vacancies in May increased by 1.5%.

Australia's balance of payments for the first quarter will be published tomorrow, it is expected to reduce the negative balance from -14.0 billion dollars to -9.9 billion dollars. The main event of tomorrow will be the RBA decision on monetary policy.

We are looking forward to continued growth of AUD / USD to 0.7660.

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The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Fractal analysis for GOLD on June 4

Forecast for June 4:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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For Gold, the key key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1317.09, 1308.97, 1305.28, 1298.46, 1287.67 and 1281.60. Here, we considered the upward structure of May 21 as a medium-term for initial conditions. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 1298.46. In this case, the first target is 1305.28. In the area of 1305.28 - 1308.97 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1317.09. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The level of 1287.70 is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the development of the downward trend. Here, the target is 1281.60.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of May 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1298.60 Take profit: 1305.00

Buy 1309.00 Take profit: 1317.00

Sell: 1287.60 Take profit: 1283.00

Sell: Take profit:

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of June 4

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the development of the upward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.1695. For the GBP / USD pair, we monitor the formation of the potential for the top of May 29. For the USD / CHF, the continuation to the bottom is expected after passing through the price range of the noise range at 0.9842 - 0.9826. For the USD / JPY pair, the price is in deep correction from the downward structure. The level of 110.08 is the key resistance for the top. For the EUR / JPY pair, the development of the upward structure of May 29 is expected after the breakdown of 128.16. For the GBP / JPY pair, we follow the development of the upward cycle of May 29.

Forecast for June 4:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1824, 1.1774, 1.1743, 1.1693, 1.1622, 1.1593, 1.1562, 1.1515, 1.1453 and 1.1397. Here, we continue to follow the upward structure of May 30. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of 1.1693. In this case, the target is 1.1743. In the area of 1.1743 - 1.1774 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.1824. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1622-1.1593. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1562. This level is the key support for the upward structure from May 30. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.1515.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1695 Take profit: 1.1742

Buy 1.1775 Take profit: 1.1822

Sell: 1.1622 Take profit: 1.1593

Sell: 1.1560 Take profit: 1.1515

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key H1 scale levels are 1.3495, 1.3457, 1.3403, 1.3381, 1.3338, 1.3311, 1.3273 and 1.3202. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 29. The continuation of the development of the upward trend is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 1.3381 - 1.3403. In this case, the target is 1.3457. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 1.3495. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3338 - 1.3311. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3273. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of an upward structure from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3405 Take profit: 1.3455

Buy: 1.3460 Take profit: 1.3490

Sell: 1.3336 Take profit: 1.3314

Sell: 1.3308 Take profit: 1.3280

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9954, 0.9927, 0.9897, 0.9876, 0.9842, 0.9826, 0.9784 and 0.9754. Here, the subsequent development of the downward structure from May 29 is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 0.9842 - 0.9826. In this case, the target is 0.9784. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 0.9754. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward trend is possible in the area of 0.9876 - 0.9897. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9927. This level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will allow us to count on the movement towards 0.9954.

The main trend is a local downward structure from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9876 Take profit: 0.9895

Buy: 0.9898 Take profit: 0.9925

Sell: 0.9826 Take profit: 0.9786

Sell: 0.9782 Take profit: 0.9755

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 110.92, 110.69, 110.08, 109.13, 108.77, 108.14, 107.64, 106.99 and 106.58. Here, the price is in deep correction from the downward structure on May 21. The development of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 110.08. In this case, the first target is 110.69. In the area of 110.69 - 110.92 is the consolidation of the price.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 109.13 - 108.77, hence the probability of a turn to the top is high. The level breakdown of the level of 108.75 caused the continuation of the development of a downward trend. In this case, the first potential target is 108.14.

The main trend is a downward structure from May 21, a stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.10 Take profit: 110.66

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 109.12 Take profit: 108.80

Sell: 108.70 Take profit: 108.20

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3204, 1.3159, 1.3093, 1.3012, 1.2960, 1.2922, 1.2825, 1.2758, 1.2674 and 1.2621. Here, we follow the upward structure of May 22. At the moment, the price is in deep correction from this structure and forms the potential for the bottom of May 29. Consolidated movement is expected in the area of 1.2922 - 1.2960. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a movement towards the level of 1.3012. This level is the key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend.

The development of a downward trend from May 29 is expected after the breakdown of 1.2825. Here, the first target is 1.2758. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 1.2755 should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the potential value of 1.2674.

The main trend is the rising from May 22, a deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2960 Take profit: 1.3012

Buy: 1.3014 Take profit: 1.3090

Sell: 1.2825 Take profit: 1.2760

Sell: 1.2755 Take profit: 1.2680

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7713, 0.7678, 0.7661, 0.7632, 0.7612, 0.7543, 0.7525, 0.7505 and 0.7474. Here, the price forms the potential for the upward movement of May 30. Short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 0.7612 - 0.7632. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement towards the level of 0.7678. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the area of 0.7678 - 0.7661. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 0.7713. From this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7543 - 0.7525. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7505. This level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will lead to a downward movement. In this case, the target is 0.7474.

The main trend is the formation of the potential for the top of May 30.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7612 Take profit: 0.7630

Buy: 0.7634 Take profit: 0.7660

Sell: 0.7541 Take profit: 0.7526

Sell: 0.7505 Take profit: 0.7478

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 131.40, 129.85, 129.22, 128.16, 127.52, 126.22, 125.53, 124.59 and 123.17. Here, we follow the downward structure from May 22. At the moment, the price is in correction and forms a small potential for the top. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after passing the price of the noise range of 127.52 - 128.16. In this case, the target is 129.22. In the area of 129.22 - 129.85 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 131.40. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 126.22 - 125.53, hence the probability of a turn to the top is high. The breakdown of the level of 125.50 will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first target is 124.59. For the potential value for the bottom, consider the level of 123.17.

The main trend is the downward structure from May 22, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 128.16 Take profit: 129.20

Buy: 129.85 Take profit: 131.40

Sell: 126.20 Take profit: 125.55

Sell: 125.50 Take profit: 124.60

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.79, 147.96, 147.50, 146.89, 146.09, 145.64 and 145.01. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of May 29. The continuation of the movement towards the top is expected after the breakdown of 146.90. In this case, the target is 147.50. In the area of 147.50 - 147.96 is the consolidation of the price. For the potential value for the top, consider the level of 148.79. From this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 146.09 - 145.64. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 145.01. This level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from May 29.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.90 Take profit: 147.50

Buy: 148.00 Take profit: 148.75

Sell: 146.04 Take profit: 145.66

Sell: 145.60 Take profit: 145.12

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