Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair on September 28. The euro is on a slow decline

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The pandemic remains at its peak in India, having a high incidence rate at more than 82 thousand a day.

Another wave has also emerged in Europe, with France recording an increase in cases by 11 thousand a day, while the United Kingdom has listed at least 6 thousand a day.

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EUR/USD:

The euro is on a decline, but at a very slow pace. Regardless, the outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains unclear.

Sell positions from the level of 1.1735, and stop at 1.1760.

Be ready in case of a collapse, or of an upward reversal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 28, 2020

The pair traded upward on Friday and rebounded at the resistance level 1.2805 (white thick line) then went down. Today, the price is likely to continue its upward movement. No news is expected as per the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.2748 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) with the target of 1.2909 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line). If this level is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the resistance level 1.2961 (black bold line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward with the target of 1.2909 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line). If this level is tested, the upward trend may continue with the next target at the resistance level 1.2961 (black bold line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.2748 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick), the price may begin to move down with the target at the historical support level 1.2646 (blue dashed line).

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 28. Trading plan for Monday.

EUR/USD hourly chart

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In the early trade on Monday, the EUR/USD entered the phase of a weak upward correction. In our review last night, we mentioned that short deals remained relevant and we needed to wait for the correction to start and for the MACD indicator to return to the zero level. So, we need this strong sell signal to open new deals. So far, everything is happening in line with our expectations since an upward correction has started and the MACD indicator is returning to zero level. At the same time, novice trades can make use of the descending channel and its lower boundary where trading activity is taking place now. The price can even continue its correction up to the level of 1.1700, which is quite far from the current levels. We would also like to remind novice traders that the main reasons for the euro/dollar pair's decline are technical rather than fundamental. We mentioned this earlier in our articles on fundamental analysis. At the same time, the fundamental background is still an important factor. However, in the US it has not changed much in recent weeks. Therefore, the rise in the US dollar against the euro could not be attributed to positive political or economic news, as well as epidemiological reports.

The fundamental background remains rather challenging for the US currency. The coronavirus situation in the US is not getting any better, as around 40 to 45 thousand new cases appear daily in the country. What is more, there is still no vaccine. Even if the vaccine is developed in the near future, a mass vaccination of the US citizens is expected not earlier than in mid-2020. Furthermore, there is no improvement is the economic recovery. Last week, Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury Secretary, and Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, reiterated in Congress that the US economy needs a new stimulus package. What is more, the topic of the upcoming presidential elections seems to be number one in the country now. And, unfortunately, it overshadows all other topics. Meanwhile, the struggle for power between Donald Trump and Joe Biden continues. According to many businessmen, economists, and political scientists, Donald Trump is a more dangerous president for the United States. They think that his manner of governing the country and the consequences of it are destructive for the US. Thus, most market participants are wary of investing in the US dollar and the US economy ahead of the elections. Therefore, we think that the US dollar may rise to the 1.13 level which is approximately a 50% retracement from the 1.0730 level. However, from a fundamental point of view, there is little reason for such growth. On Monday, no major events or macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release.

Possible scenarios for September 28

1) We still do not recommend buying the pair at this time since there is a clear downtrend in place. Trading against the trend is basically not a good idea. Thus, you may consider placing long positions only when the price settles above the descending channel or when a new uptrend supported by a trendline or other channel is formed.

2) Sell deals remain relevant today despite the fact that the pair is trading near the lower boundary of the descending channel. This means that the chances for an upward correction are very high. As we know, such onward movements in one direction, which we have been observing since September 21, can be very long-lasting. That is, there may be no upward correction to the upper boundary of the channel. Nevertheless, we still expect a weak correctional movement. On Monday, you can open new short positions with the targets at 1.1600 and 1.1570 when the MACD indicator returns to zero level and generates a new sell signal, that's is, turns to the downside.

On the chart

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trendlines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 28, 2020

The pair traded downward on Friday. Today, an upward trend is expected. According to the economic calendar, euro news is expected at 13:45 UTC.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may move upward from the level of 1.1634 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) with the target at the resistance level 1.1668 (black thick line). In case of testing this line, the upward movement will continue with the next target of 1.1761 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.1634 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick) with the target at the resistance level 1.1668 (black bold line). In case of testing this line, the upward movement will continue with the next target of 1.1761 - a 21-day EMA (black thin line).

Another possible scenario: from the level of 1.1634 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick), the price may move down with the target at the historical support level 1.1544 (blue dotted line).

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on 09/28/2020

The single European currency is still under pressure, although the US data turned out to be slightly worse than expected. Orders for durable goods grew by only 0.4%. They were expected to increase by 2.0%. The previous data was revised for the better, and orders increased by 11.7% in July instead of 11.2%. But the expected revision does not compensate for weaker growth in August. Nevertheless, we are still talking about an increase in orders, and for four consecutive months. So both industry and retail retain growth potential. Nevertheless, to all appearances, these data did not affect the market at all because the euro stopped weakening before the data was released. So, the euro is rather declining by momentum, against the background of the global strengthening of the dollar, which is still perceived as a protective instrument. For the most part, this is due to investor concerns about the possibility of introducing full-scale quarantine measures across Europe. They do not even talk about this in the United States itself. America is keen on preparing for the upcoming presidential election, and any restrictions could impede the holding of the election. For the first time in the history of the United States. None of the representatives of the American political elite will dare to do such a thing, as it will become his political suicide. You cannot break traditions. Even Roosevelt, in 1944, despite the Second World War, did not dare to postpone the presidential elections. So, investors have nothing to worry about about the possibility of toughening anti-epidemiological measures in the United States, therefore, the dollar looks somewhat preferable. And today, in the conditions of a completely empty macroeconomic calendar, it is quite possible for the euro to weaken. Although its scale will be rather modest.

Durable Goods Orders (United States):

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The euro/dollar pair adheres to a downward development, during which the quote managed to settle below the price level of 1.1650, which is considered another sell signal. A consistent downward development and forming a flat structure may start a medium-term trend.

If we proceed from the quote's current position, then we can see a pullback from the value of 1.1612 towards 1.1640, which does not violate the general cycle of downward development.

A slight deceleration is recorded regarding market dynamics, but another acceleration will occur as soon as the local low is updated.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), one can see how a downward trend emerges, where the medium-term upward trend has been hit by a possible change in market sentiment.

We can assume that the current pullback is only temporary, where another round of short positions will appear if the 1.1612 low is updated, which will lead us towards the 1.1550 value.

An alternative scenario considers the delay in the pullback process towards the previously passed level of 1.1650.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods signal a sell due to the prevailing downward interest in the market.

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CFTC report is against the dollar, but inadequate liquidity will not let it weaken. Overview of USD, EUR, GBP

The US dollar is under pressure again after the CFTC report last Friday. On the other hand, there is growth in the net short position for the first time in 4 weeks, which rose by 2.791 billion and reached 34.538 billion..The accumulated growth of long positions was exceeded, and just like a month ago, the dollar looks very weak again in speculative positioning.

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Now, the total personal consumption expenditure remains well below its pre-pandemic level. Household spending was supported by increased unemployment benefits and one-time direct income support. These payments mostly expired in August, which will lead to a sharp decline in income, which could further weaken consumption. The pace of job creation slowed down in July and August compared to May and June, and the latest weekly data shows that the number of unemployment claims is growing in September, while they were forecast to decline.

The lack of dollar liquidity is the main driver that will determine financial flows before the presidential election, since the Fed took a break on expanding QE and Democrats and Republicans cannot agree in Congress how huge the next aid package will be. For the first week, the outflow of funds from ETFs amounted to 26.87 billion, which is the third result in the entire history. Nasdaq's rates on decline are the highest since June 2006.

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We have a bullish situation for the dollar. Therefore, growth should be expected across the entire spectrum of the market.

EUR/USD

Euro's net long position is growing again, with a weekly gain of 1.482 billion. However, this is still not enough to turn up short-term expectations, since the main impulse for this pair at the current stage is the lack of liquidity of the dollar and the approaching US presidential election.

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At the same time, the indicated currency does not yet have its own driver and is moving mainly under the influence of the dollar dynamics. The September Markit index for the services sector unexpectedly fell to 47.5p, which indicates weak consumer demand. Today, ECB's head, Lagarde, will speak before the European Parliament, while the ECB conference will take place on Wednesday. So, if they will mention something unexpected, the euro will continue to slow down.

Technically, it should be assumed that the EUR/USD bearish impulse is still strong. The correction after the growth that began in April is not complete and the 38.2% Fibo support line just passes above 1.15. Considering that there are no significant resistances above this level, we can expect the first attempts to form a local bottom near this level.

GBP/USD

News from a negotiating platform between the EU and the UK are contradictory. By the end of last week, there were rumors that the parties were converging positions, but they did not receive official confirmation. Barnier, head of the EU delegation, did not comment. The next round of negotiations will be held from September 29 to October 2.

Today, the UK Parliament will hold a discussion on the controversial bill "On the Internal Market", and its result may be decisive in terms of negotiations with the EU, and if the ground for progress does not appear, the EU will start preparing for a hard Brexit.

Investors are gradually clarifying their position and, based on the logic of the situation, they are preparing for the pound's decline. Futures for the pound were almost unchanged for the reporting week, but the estimated price is still significantly lower than the spot price.

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The Gfk consumer confidence index rose in September from -27p to -25p and has been recovering for 4 consecutive months, but the recovery pace remains very weak. The chart of the index movement largely repeats the chart of the estimated price – for the growth of the pound, the grounds remain very weak.

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A wide support zone for the pound is 1.2660/2710, where its future fate will be decided. A positive result from the negotiations will give a chance to resume growth, but the chance is small, since the dollar will be in growing demand in conditions of lack of liquidity. It looks more likely to go below the support zone from the long-term.

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Trump to appoint Amy Barrett as his candidate for Supreme Court

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Donald Trump plans to appoint Federal Court of Appeals Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his candidate for the Supreme Court.

If approved by the Senate, Barrett will replace Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died on September 18. Barrett is a favorite of religious conservatives, as well as a key supporter of Trump. Trump himself even asked the Senate to approve her before the November 3 elections, in which he is running for a second term.

Amy Barrett, 48, was appointed by Trump to the 7th US District Court of Appeals in Chicago in 2017. If approved by the Senate, she will become the fifth woman to serve in the high court.

As an appellate judge in her three years in office, Barrett has expressed conservative legal positions on key issues: voting for one of Trump's tough immigration policies and showing support for the right to arms law. She is also the author of the regulation that makes it easier for college students accused of on-campus sexual harassment to sue their institutions.

In June 2019, Barrett expressed disagreement with the 7th Circuit Commission, which upheld a US District Court decision temporarily blocking Trump's policies that disadvantage green card applicants seeking any government aid. Federal immigration rules were discussed as to when an applicant would be considered a "government taxpayer" and not be eligible for permanent status in the United States.

Barrett seems to have an obvious path to Senate approval. Majority of the Republicans expressed their assent, and only two senators in Trump's party object to her nomination.

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on September 28

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on September 28

Analysis of transactions

Short positions arose in the EUR / USD pair last Friday, as a result of which the quote moved down 25-30 pips from the level of 1.1647.

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The pressure may persist on the euro today, moreso since there are no significant reports that could support the currency in rising on the markets. Only the upcoming speech of ECB president Christine Lagarde could affect demand, however, it wouldn't be in favor of the bulls.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches a price level of 1.1656 (green line on the chart). Then, take profit at the level of 1.1695 since movement will not be as large as wanted today.
  • Sell positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1623 (red line on the chart). A breakout from the weekly low could lead to another large decrease in the EUR / USD pair. Take profit at the level of 1.1586.

Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on September 28

Analysis of transactions

Several signals appeared on the market last Friday, one of which is to buy the pound from the level of 1.2773. However, it did not bring much profit to traders, as movement to just about 20 pips, signaling a slowdown in the bullish momentum. Meanwhile, sales were far more profitable, as after the test of the level of 1.2744, a sharp drop in the pound, by about 50 pips, occurred in the market.

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Since there are no important statistics today, it is likely that the GBP / USD pair will trade in a flat market today. However, bears can still count on the continuation of the downward movement.

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  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.2783 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2826 (thicker green line on the chart).
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches a price level of 1.2755 (red line on the chart). It is best to trade alongside the trend, so take profit at the level of 1.2697.
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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 28, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2697 (low was made at 1.2674) and after a short period of consolidation the market is starting to bounce. This corrective bounce higher should be capped very soon, because there is a wide supply zone located between the level of 1.2747 - 1.2869 and only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.2869 would indicate the whole corrective cycle termination. Moreover, the market is bouncing from the oversold conditions on the H4 time frame chart and the momentum is slowly accelerating as well. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3187

WR2 - 1.3072

WR1 - 1.2894

Weekly Pivot - 1.2783

WS1 - 1.2601

WS2 - 1.2494

WS3 - 1.2312

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 28, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been making lower lows and lower highs since the breakout below the level of 1.1790. The recent low was made at the level of 1.1612 and it looks like a temporary low only. Due to the oversold market conditions traders should expect a bounce towards the level of 1.1655, but any rally should be capped below the level of 1.1696 anyway. Bears are in control of the market and more lower lows should be seen soon. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.1569 - 1.1569 zone. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2011

WR2 - 1.1939

WR1 - 1.1752

Weekly Pivot - 1.1683

WS1 - 1.1498

WS2 - 1.1408

WS3 - 1,1239

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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EUR/USD - Back-testing the broken downtrend

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EUR/USD - Back-testing the broken downtrend

EUR/USD has been trading in a downtrend since the 2008 peak at 1.6038 but this downtrend was broken in July 2020 near 1.1700. EUR/USD is currently retesting this broken downtrend, which is a classic buy-signal.

Notably, the Stochastic is crossing higher indicating more upside pressure in the weeks/months to come. The long-term cycles remain higher and favor us to take advantage of long-term buy-signals and that is what we are currently seeing with the retest of the downtrend.

To fine-tune the buy-signal, we recommend to loom at the shorter time-frame charts like the daily or 4-hourly charts to identify the ideal buying spot for the next long-term rally in EUR/USD

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 28, 2020

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GBP/JPY has broken above short-term key-resistance at 134.57 to confirm that an important low has been seen at 133.08 and a new impulsive rally now is in motion for a rally above the former peak at 142.70 in wave iii/.

In the short-term, we see support near 133.90 which ideally will be able to protect the downside for renewed upside pressure towards 136.33 and above. However, only an unexpected break below support at 133.11 will invalidate our bullish outlook.

R3: 136.05

R2: 135.51

R1: 134.99

Pivot: 134.57

S1: 134.33

S2: 133.99

S3: 133.60

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 133.51 with our stop placed at 133.00

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 28, 2020

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EUR/JPY has finally begun its drop towards our ideal target at 122.15. This should complete the corrective decline in wave 2/ and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in wave 3/ to above the former peak at 127.07.

Only a direct break above minor resistance at 122.90 will indicate that wave 2/ has already completed and wave 3/ higher is in motion.

R3: 123.43

R2: 122.90

R1: 122.74

Pivot: 122.55

S1: 122.25

S2: 122.15

S3: 122.00

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 123.90 and we will lower our stop+revers to 122.95. We will take profit+revers our short-position to a long EUR position at 122.25

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 28, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Venezuela has created the first satellite node capable of processing transactions without an internet connection. This is great news for a country with a very poorly developed internet infrastructure.

The Venezuelan "cosmic node" was created by Anibal Garrido and his team Anibal Cripto. It is based on Blockstream technology, which uses a satellite - in this case EUTELSAT-113 - to transmit data between points, without being connected to the internet. The idea came from Cryptobuyer, a Latin American start-up that focuses on cryptocurrency payments:

"We successfully installed and run a satellite Bitcoin node in Venezuela which allows us to be independent of the internet to download messages and validate transactions" they wrote on twiter.

Garrido added that he wants to expand access by implementing a series of smaller devices. All smaller satellites will create a mesh network that will be able to transmit data between different devices. The first of the three antennas has been deployed in Valencia City. The other two will be deployed in the nation's capital, Caracas and Puerto Ordaz. Cryptobuyer chose Valencia because it's an industrialized city but doesn't have many tall buildings to block the signal.

This is the first stage of an ambitious project that could help increase the utility of Bitcoin in a country with a very weak technological infrastructure. Venezuela has one of the slowest internet connections on the continent. The country is also struggling with the problem of access to electricity.

Farias believes the antenna could make it possible to pay with Bitcoin in remote areas or in the event of an internet failure. He pointed out that this is why they are trying to create a mesh network that will communicate with the Blockstream satellite:

"We are using a P2P network that uses a USB device that is already in Venezuela. We will soon be putting these devices into operation, with a range of approximately four kilometers each.

Anibal considers Venezuela a great place to realize Satoshi Nakamoto's vision.

"This project aims to show the nature of the Bitcoin protocol. Open nature, no limits and no limits. Venezuela is therefore a pioneer in Latin America and the world in the use and application of this type of technology that is not imposed by decree or force.

Despite its political and economic problems, Venezuela ranks first among all Latin countries in terms of cryptocurrency adoption.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been continuing to move higher for all the weekend and the recent local high was made at the level of $10,924. The next target for bulls is the supply zone located between the levels of $11,062 - $11,222. The momentum remains strong and positive, so the odds are still high and if the local technical resistance seen at the level of $10,940 is clearly violated, then the supply zone will be tested. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of $10,568.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,934

WR2 - $11,451

WR1 - $11,105

Weekly Pivot - $10,558

WS1 - $10,238

WS2 -$9,737

WS3 - $9,392

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 28, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

According to data from BitInfoCharts, yesterday's average Ethereum transaction fee was $ 2,248. It hit $2.28, 4 cents more on August 23, but has not fallen below $ 2,248 since August 9, when the cost of an average Ethereum transaction was $1.94.

Just ten days ago, the average cost of a single Ethereum transaction was $11.6, and on September 2, $14.6. These were the highest fees in the history of the entire network. The gas price was close to these levels in 2018 at the earliest, and was then $5.5.

Fees go up when there aren't enough miners to process your transactions. If the charges are lower, it means less network activity. One of the reasons for the high fees during these holidays was the rapid development of decentralized finance (DeFi). DeFi is a series of decentralized financial products such as loan protocols, decentralized stablecoins and synthetic assets.

A lot of money has been poured into these protocols over the past few months. According to DeFi Pulse, currently about USD 11 billion is blocked in DeFi smart contracts. In June, it was only 1 billion, so the entire sector of decentralized finance grew by 1100%. The largest DeFi smart contracts are placed in the Ethereum blockchain. However, the ETH network can only process 14 transactions per second, so it is unable to keep up with demand.

Declining fees may mean that activity in the DeFi sector is also declining. Perhaps people are starting to move to other blockchains. It could also mean that people rely on second-tier solutions - software built into the Ethereum blockchain to make transactions cheaper or faster - or that DeFi smart contracts become more efficient or simply contain fewer transactions. Whatever the reason, investors are sure to enjoy lower gas prices.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/UD pair has almost hit the level of $362.93, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave down. The recent local high was made at the level of $361.88, so it was just a little below the retracement level. Nevertheless, the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern had been made already, so the bears are now trying to stop to corrective wave up and reverse the market back to the down trend. The momentum is still strong and positive, so the bulls did not give up yet and are waiting for the opportunity to break out higher. The next technical resistance is seen at the level of $369.37 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $345.40. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $446.64

WR2 - $410.95

WR1 - $384.24

Weekly Pivot - $347.99

WS1 - $319.88

WS2 -$284.46

WS3 - $256.92

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support is currently seen at the level of $305.20 - $321.95, so all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 28, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro closed below the target level of 1.1650 last Friday, despite a weak report from the US. Orders for durable goods rose 0.4% m/m in August against 1.1% expectations. The debate on Wednesday between presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the main event of the first half of the week. And since Trump has not yet formalized his understanding of the "strong dollar", markets will be guided by the degree of risk to themselves in the event of a verbal victory of one of the candidates. In case stock indices grow, the euro may also go up. The euro's external behavior corresponds to the scenario of such a tactic of investors; it occurs regularly before strong news - buying dollars, before their subsequent exchange for euros. But unless the debate reveals a winner, investors will continue to move away from dollar risk. Accordingly, we expect the euro to decline to the first target of 1.1550 and, possibly after the debate, to 1.1480.

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A double convergence of medium strength has formed on the four-hour chart, which still keeps the euro from rapidly falling. The price is likely to stay below the 1.1650 level before it continues to fall.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 28, 2020

GBP/USD

The British pound has been trading at the Fibonacci level of 100.0% (1.2725) for the fourth session, deviating from it in both directions by half a figure. At the moment, the price is showing growth under the influence of convergence on the Marlin oscillator. Growth is weak, it acts as a correction from the movement on September 18-23, that is, we expect the pair to fall to the target levels at Fibonacci levels: 1.2645, 1.2535, 1.2424.

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The price went beyond the area above the MACD line (blue indicator), entering the growth zone of the Marlin oscillator. It will likely continue to consolidate until the end of the day. The price settling in the area below 1.2725 (February 28 low) will be a signal for its decline.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 28, 2020

AUD/USD

In the previous review, we wrote that the Australian dollar will leave the consolidation range of 0.7065-0.7110 in the coming week, but it did it on Friday. Nevertheless, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning to the upside and the price may return to this consolidation range.

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The Marlin oscillator has formed a weak convergence on the four-hour chart, but its potential is enough for the price to return to the area above the 0.7065 level, and the signal line will already be in the growing trend zone, which will contribute to the price delay before moving to 0.6970. The price of oil is also consolidating in last week's range of 39.10-40.70, serving as a reference point for other commodities. We are waiting for the aussie's correction to end and the quote to fall to 0.6970.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 28, 2020

USD/JPY

The US stock market grew last Friday after it has fallen by 9.88% since September 2. The S&P 500 gained 1.60% while the USD/JPY pair added 15 points on Friday. This morning the price stayed at the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, and if the signal line of the Marlin oscillator strengthens the reversal mood from the border of the growth territory, then the price may fall to the price channel line in the area of the 105.12 level. If risk appetite turns out to be stronger, the price will continue to grow towards the first target of 106.05 - to the Fibonacci level of 100.0%, which is near the MACD line. A signal for long term growth is when the price goes beyond the area above today's high of 105.69.

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The price is growing above the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, and the MACD line itself turns to the upside. This is a sign that growth is becoming stronger in the medium-term. The Marlin oscillator has eased, dropped to the border of the bears' territory, and is now ready to continue growing, unless we receive strong negative news.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 28. COT report. US companies are suing the Donald Trump administration

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair continued to trade mostly sideways on September 25. The horizontal movement continued under the Kijun-sen line for two consecutive days, as a result of which the pair's quotes left the descending channel. And so a situation has now emerged for the pound, in which falling in the long term is called into question, and an upward correction will not start. Therefore, it is necessary to wait until this situation is clarified. If buyers succeed in pushing the pair above the critical line, then the chances of an upward correction will sharply increase. Otherwise, the initiative will remain in the hands of the bears.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are more sideways than up or down on the 15-minute timeframe. Therefore, the sideways movement can be seen on the lowest timeframe as well. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound showed that non-commercial traders got rid of buying the pound and opened Sell-contracts (shorts). A group of commercial traders got rid of huge amounts of both longs and shorts of the pound. We then concluded that the pound sterling is now, in principle, not the most attractive currency for large traders. The new COT report showed absolutely minor changes for the "non-commercial" group. Buy-contracts (longs) fell by 2,000 while Sell-contracts decreased by 1,500. Thus, the net position for non-commercial traders remained practically unchanged for the reporting week (September 16-22). At this time, the British pound continued to fall, which can be considered a consequence of the previous reporting week, when the net position of non-commercial traders greatly decreased, by 11,500 contracts. No changes in the rate of the pound/dollar pair on the 23rd, 24th, 25th, which will be included in the next report. Thus, a long term decline in the pound's quotes is indeed questionable, although the pound is still the most unattractive currency in the foreign exchange market.

No major macroeconomic reports were released in the UK on Friday, September 25. And so, traders had to turn their eyes to the United States. However, they did not find anything interesting for themselves over there, because the pair spent the whole day in a narrow price range. But there is a new scandal that is associated with US President Donald Trump. This time, 3,500 American companies filed lawsuits against the presidential administration, which believe that authorities have illegally increased duties on Chinese goods. The only thing that can be said about this is "What a turn!" It seems that American businessmen did not wait for Trump to continue the trade war with China, from which, as we have already found out, so far only damages America itself. It seems that US business did not wait for the war to begin against it, as Trump believes that all American companies should return their production to the United States. And for those who refuse to do this, it is quite possible that taxes will be greatly increased. Thus, just 5 weeks before the election, big American business showed how badly it wants Trump to be re-elected for a second term.

We have two trading ideas for September 28:

1) Buyers took the first step to meet the initiative by breaking the downward channel. You can still consider buy positions on the pound, but first the price should settle above the Kijun-sen line (1.2768), and then you can aim for the Senkou Span B line (1.2871) and the resistance level of 1.3020. Take Profit in this case will be from 80 to 200 points. The current fundamental background is simultaneously bad for both the pound and the dollar. Therefore, we might even observe a flat for some time.

2) Sellers can only focus all their efforts on keeping the pair below the critical line. However, this is not enough, it is necessary that the downward movement resumed in the coming days, otherwise a flat will begin. While this is not the case, short positions remain relevant with the targets at support levels 1.2667 and 1.2558. Take Profit in this case can range from 60 to 160 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 28. COT report. Large traders can restrain the euro's long term

EUR/USD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair moved down after a low correction on the hourly timeframe on September 25, within which it could not even reach the critical line, which was very close. Therefore, the downward trend continues for the pair, as evidenced by the descending channel. The price even tried to go below this channel on Friday, but it didn't work out. Thus, after such a long break, bears are now in control of the pair's direction. The long-awaited downward pullback began, which we had been waiting for at least a month. Now the only question is how much the US dollar will be able to rise in price, for which the fundamental background has not changed much in recent weeks.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are still pointing to the downside on the 15 minute timeframe, indicating that the downward movement may continue. The euro/dollar fell by about one and a half cents last reporting week (September 16-22). Recall that the previous Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that the "non-commercial" group of traders, which we have repeatedly called the most important, sharply reduced their net positions. Thus, in general, the downward movement that began later on was sufficiently substantiated. The only problem is that it started late. The new COT report, which only covers the dates when the euro began its long-awaited fall, showed completely opposite data. Non-commercial traders opened 15,500 new Buy-contracts (longs) and almost 6,000 Sell-contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for this group of traders has increased by around 9,000, which shows that traders are becoming bullish. Accordingly, the behavior of the EUR/USD pair and the COT report data simply do not match. For the second week in a row. However, if you try to look at the overall picture, you can still note a very weak strengthening of the bearish sentiment, so the COT report allows a slight fall in the euro. The question is, how little movement can you expect? The pair went down 270 points from the last local high.

There was only one important report on Friday, September 25. Durable goods orders in the United States. The main indicator increased by only 0.4% in August, the indicator excluding defense and aviation - by 1.8%. Indicator excluding transport - by 0.4%. Indicator excluding defense - by 0.7%. In general, approximately the same figures were predicted. Therefore, traders did not particularly react to this report. The dollar began to grow much earlier than when this report was released. Meanwhile, more and more economists believe that the potential for recovery in the US economy is nearing its peak. In other words, without additional stimulus and with current levels of coronavirus disease, the US economy will find it difficult to continue to show "higher growth rates than expected," said Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. And the Democrats and Republicans still have not agreed on the size of the new package of financing the economy. And the number of daily recorded cases of the disease is stable at 40-45,000 per day. No important macroeconomic and fundamental events in the EU and the US are scheduled for Monday.

We have two trading ideas for September 28:

1) Buyers remain outside of the market, but they can be active at any time, as evidenced by the data of the COT report. Therefore, we recommend considering long positions if the pair settles above the Kijun-sen line (1.1696) and the resistance area of 1.1704-1.1728, while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.1763) and the resistance area of 1.1894-1.1910. Take Profit in this case will be from 20 to 150 points. Of course, ideally, you should wait for the quotes to settle above the descending channel.

2) Bears have been showing more and more desire to put pressure on the pair lately. Nevertheless, the same COT report warns that the dollar's rise may be very short-lived. Nevertheless, while the price is below the Kijun-sen line, you are recommended to continue trading down while aiming for 1.1588 (new target levels will be formed today). In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 40 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 28. The pound has more bad long-term prospects than the US currency.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -57.2772

For the last three trading days of last week, the British pound was trading quite calmly in a narrow price range. In fact, all trades were held between the Murray levels of "0/8" - 1.2695 and "1/8" - 1.2756. The pair broke out to the moving average line once, bounced off it, and resumed a semi-sideways movement. Thus, the fall of the British pound temporarily stopped. We remind you that it is the US dollar and the British pound that remain the main "losers" of 2020. At least, judging by the events of the last 6 months in the UK and the US. However, the pound/dollar pair cannot standstill. For a while, there may be a flat, however, it is not constant. Thus, with an absolutely negative background from the UK and the same background from the US, the pair should still move in one direction. It remains only to determine which one.

The simplest way to do this is technical analysis. For example, when the pair's quotes are below the moving average line, you should trade lower. The mood of traders, both large and small, can change at any time. There is no way to predict this. However, traders still react sluggishly to macroeconomic statistics. Thus, we can only track the overall fundamental background and only try to predict how it may affect the overall mood of market participants.

Unfortunately, things are just as bad in Britain and the US right now. This applies to almost all aspects of the country's life. Starting from the "coronavirus" epidemic, ending with political crises. Of course, the situation is still different. For example, in the US, the first "wave" of the pandemic, which began in March, is still ongoing, and in the UK, the second "wave" began a couple of weeks ago. In Britain, the number of diseases is increasing daily. On September 25, a new anti-record was set - almost 7,000 cases per day. In the States, everything is a little better – "only" 40,000 diseases per day. "Better" – because a few weeks ago, 60,000 were recorded. As for political crises, of course, in fact, they are not. In general, the concept of "political crisis" is very vague and each author or analyst puts his own meaning in it. However, we believe that if the government does not show high results of its work, and approval ratings fall to 30% (and this applies to both Trump and Johnson), then there is a political crisis in the country. We can even say that the States were more fortunate. Trump may leave as early as January 20, and Joe Biden will take his place. Thus, the question is only in the Americans themselves. If they vote for Biden in the majority, then no courts, no proceedings will be able to influence the results later. If Biden wins by a margin of 100-120 votes (recall that the electoral system in the United States is special, "electoral votes" are considered to be distributed in unequal proportions among all States), then no court will recognize that the vote was dishonest. Thus, the fate of the future of the United States is literally in the hands of the American people. The same cannot be said for the British, who managed to put all power in the hands of Boris Johnson over the past year. The British Prime Minister was appointed to his post only last year, which means that he can lead the country for several more years (provided that the Conservative Party fully supports him). Thus, it is in Britain that it is unlikely that anything will change dramatically in the near future.

Well, 2021 for the States can really be a year of growth (in our opinion, if Biden wins the election), however, it can be a year of a new fall for the UK since there was no free trade agreement with the European Union or the States. It is impossible to predict when and how the COVID-2019 epidemic will end, and how many more victims it will have in the Foggy Albion. Well, Boris Johnson's actions are even harder to predict than answering the question: "When will the pandemic end?" Recall that this year, Johnson may not just "go in different directions" with the European Union, but completely fall out with it. Thus, it will be extremely difficult for him to sign an agreement with Brussels in the future. However, from our point of view, if this happens, it may also be the first step for Britain on the road to liberation from Boris Johnson. To do this, Johnson must lose the internal support of his party. In principle, his bill "on the free market" was not supported by anyone except his own party members, and even then not all of them. Thus, we believe that with this bill, Johnson first of all cast a shadow on himself. He simply showed that he could easily violate the principles of international law. Who would want to negotiate anything with such a leader? Such is the sad news from London.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 132 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Monday, September 28, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2611 and 1.2875. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down may signal about a possible resumption of the downward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2695

S2 – 1.2634

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2756

R2 – 1.2817

R3 – 1.2878

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to adjust on the 4-hour timeframe, mostly sideways. Thus, today it is recommended to open new short positions with targets of 1.2695 and 1.2634 as soon as the Heiken Ashi indicator turns back down or the price bounces off the moving average line. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.2875 and 1.2939 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 28. A chess game between Donald Trump and Joseph Biden with the main prize – the

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -99.1177

On the last trading day of last week, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade with a downward bias. Thus, the overall trend for the instrument does not change. The downward trend persists after a two-month movement in the 200-point side channel. However, as we have said many times, the prospects for the US dollar remain very vague, especially when paired with the European currency. With the pound sterling – everything is clear. This currency is an absolute outsider for the last four years. However, the European economy does not look problem-free, but rather stable. The only serious concern is inflation. In the United States, there are still many more problems in both economic, epidemiological, and political. We have already listed them several times. By and large, nothing changes in the fundamental background from overseas, thus, we continue to insist that the main reasons for the further fall in the pair's quotes can only be technical.

Most of the news from America continues to concern the topic of the election and Donald Trump personally. For example, the current US President in an interview last week said that he does not even expect any process of transferring power to Joe Biden, because, in his opinion, "he will win the election". "We will only lose the election if the Democrats cheat. We can't let them do this, because our country is at stake. These people will destroy our country, we can't let that happen. This is a scam, they know it, and the media knows what will happen," said Donald Trump. It is unclear how Trump and his team will be able to convict the Democrats of fraud. However, this is the most alarming moment. No one will forbid Trump to say something like "the Democrats rigged the election, they forged a lot of ballots, we have evidence, we will present it in a week" and file with the Supreme Court. Naturally, as in the case of the accusations against China, no evidence will be presented "in the near future". But at the time, both Mike Pompeo and Donald Trump have repeatedly stated that the evidence will be made public in the coming weeks. The same can happen with elections and accusations against Democrats. And most American journalists and experts have little doubt that this is exactly what will happen. Accusations are one of Trump's favorite weapons. Also, Trump has already begun to accuse the Democrats that all "his votes" will be counted within a day, but all those who will vote by mail (that is, for Biden) can be counted within weeks or even months. It is unknown why Trump believes that all of his voters will vote in person and all of Biden's voters will vote by mail. The current US President also believes that this is the calculation of the Democrats. The number of votes they received will be known in a day. Thus, the Democrats can fake all-new ballots.

Thus, the situation with the elections looks like this now. Biden and his entourage are afraid that against the background of the "coronavirus", Trump and the company may prevent voters from voting in many "Biden" states and cities. This is what mail-in voting was designed for so that every Biden voter could cast their vote for the Democrat without hindrance. Again, under the cover of the "coronavirus". Trump is afraid that Biden's people will simply cheat the necessary number of votes by using fake ballots. Thus, as we've said before, it's likely that the election results will be challenged in the US Supreme Court, no matter who wins them. And with this development, we are not ready to say that Trump is 70-80% likely to lose the election. The problem is that if the case is decided in the US Supreme Court, then Trump already has the support (according to various estimates) of 4-5 judges out of 9. In the near future, Trump wants to appoint another judge to replace the untimely Ruth Ginsburg. Most likely, he will be able to do this, because no legal grounds are prohibiting him from doing so. On the contrary, the law prescribes the appointment of judges if the situation so requires. A candidate has already been selected to replace the deceased Ginsburg, who did not support Trump's policies. Trump offers Amy Coney Barrett, who was previously appointed by him to the Chicago District Court of Appeals. It doesn't even matter who Trump chooses. Thus, it remains only to wait for the approval of the candidate by the US Senate, the majority of which are Republicans.

Thus, almost everything related to politics and power in America now passes through the prism of elections. Even the situation with the "coronavirus", Democrats and Republicans are trying to use against each other. For example, Joe Biden says that all the President's demagoguery is connected only with the desire to distract the attention of Americans from the real problems, from the epidemic that persists at high levels and from the high level of unemployment. Trump also says that the Democrats are trying to "delay" the process of creating a vaccine. Thus, we will witness another 5-week series called "elections".

Well, for the euro/dollar pair, this means only one thing. In the near future, the US dollar may start falling again. The reasons are extremely fundamental. Investors and traders are now afraid to deal with the US economy and the US currency because their future is uncertain. Thus, the euro now looks more stable currency. Perhaps, after the election results are known, the US currency will again be in demand, however, we do not want to get ahead of ourselves so far. No one knows what will happen after November 3.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 28 is 85 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1546 and 1.1716. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward signals a new round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1658

R2 – 1.1719

R3 – 1.1780

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, now you can continue to hold open short positions with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1546 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to re-consider options for opening long positions if the pair is fixed above the moving average with the first targets of 1.1780 and 1.1841.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 28? Getting ready for Monday session

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair was trading in full accordance with our morning assumptions on Friday, September 25. In the morning article, we said that it is not advisable to buy the pair now, since there is a downward trend, and trading against the trend is als not recommended. This also applies to experienced traders, not just beginners. The MACD indicator had previously been discharged to zero, which made it possible to consider it again as a provider of strong sell signals. And so it happened. The MACD indicator reacted to the first downward bar with a downward reversal (the signal is circled), according to which novice traders could open short positions. The targets were the levels 1.1633 and 1.1599. The first one was reached, the second was not. But even if traders did not close sell orders near the first target, the pair returned to this level again afterwards, thus, a profit of about 20-30 points could be obtained. On the whole, the overall technical picture did not change at all on Friday. The pair's quotes remained in the lower area of the descending channel, so an upward correction is still very likely.

A report on durable goods orders for August was released in America on the final trading day of the week. We have already said that this report is quite important, since this category of goods is quite expensive, which means it has a significant impact on GDP and well reflects the purchasing power and desire to make expensive purchases. However, we also mentioned that, according to forecasts, changes are expected to be minimal compared to July. And so it happened in practice. Four derived indicators, two of which turned out to be worse than forecasted, two - better. In general, the highest growth was 1.8%, the lowest at 0.4%. As such, the changes were minimal and we cannot conclude that the markets were diligently working through this report. However, demand for the US dollar recovered on Friday. We believe that for the same technical reasons, due to which it began in principle, there was a need for a deeper correction after rising by 1300 points.

There are no macroeconomic events scheduled for Monday, September 28, in the European Union and the United States. Therefore, the first trading day of a new week might be very boring, as is often the case. An upward correction to the area of the upper line of the descending channel may even begin.

Possible scenarios for September 28:

1) Novice traders are still not recommended to place buy positions at this time, since there is a clear downward trend, and trading against the trend is not recommended in principle. Thus, it will be possible to consider long positions but first the price should settle above the downward trend channel or a new upward trend should appear, supported by a trend line or other channel.

2) Selling remains relevant despite the fact that the pair is trading near the lower border of the descending channel, that is, it retains high chances for starting an upward correction. However, in our experience, we can say that such forward movements along the trend, which have been observed since September 21, can be very long. Thus, on Monday it will be possible to open new short positions with targets at 1.1599 and 1.1572 after the MACD indicator recovers to the zero level and forms a new sell signal.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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