Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 10, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Paul Grewal, a former American judge in California and deputy general legal adviser on Facebook, joins the legal team of the Coinbase Stock Exchange.

In a published statement on the Coinbase blog, the crypto exchange said that Grewal would help "pave the way to the next stage of awareness and the adoption of cryptocurrencies." The new legal director will also lead the legal team while Coinbase cooperates with financial services regulators and develops and releases new products and services.

According to Coinbase, Grewal oversaw more than a thousand cases in five years of work as a judge and "played a significant role" in Apple v. Samsung and Oracle v. Google, two key legal technology issues.

Coinbase's announcement comes two months after his former general attorney, Brian P. Brooks, left the stock exchange after two years. He is currently the head of the US currency control office, an office in the Treasury Department.

It is unclear whether the decision to choose Grewal was influenced by a recent class action lawsuit against Plaid "data plumber" Coinbase, which was filed after Brooks's departure. The plaintiffs claim that Plaid has violated privacy and data protection by collecting and generating revenue from the financial transactions of millions of users.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has retraced 61% of the last wave up and is currently trading around the level of $9,082. The local high was made at the level of $9,430, but since then the momentum turned negative and the bears are now in control of the market. The local technical support is seen at the level of $9,143 has been violated already, so the next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,000. Only a sustained breakout below the level of $9,290 would put the bulls back into control over the market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,487

WR2 - $9,346

WR1 - $9,113

Weekly Pivot - $8,999

WS1 - $8,779

WS2 - $8,645

WS3 - $8,425

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for July 10, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, the downward trend may continue from the level of 1.1287 (closing of yesterday's candle), with a target of 1.1247 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.1217 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move downward with a target of 1.1247 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line). Upon reaching this level, the downward trend may continue with the next target of 1.1217 - a 76.4% retracement level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward pullback from 1.1247 - a 61.6% pullback level (blue dashed line) with a target at the resistance line 1.1329 (white bold line).

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Pound and euro failed to grow on hopes for new large-scale incentives (it seems that the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs will continue

The data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the States released on Thursday turned out to be higher than expected and became a catalyst for a moderate, but time-limited increase in demand for risky assets, which in turn, contributed to the depreciation of the US currency.

The main negativity for the markets is still the coronavirus issue, which successfully restrains the positive stream from the restoration of economic activity in the economically important countries of the world, primarily in the United States.

Recently, the single currency and the British pound have received good support. The main factor remains the issue of expanded stimulus measures for the economies of the eurozone and the UK. As for the situation regarding the demand for the euro, it is formed thanks to the hopes that, despite the existing contradictions between the countries in the EU, a decision will be made on July 18 on how the European Recovery Fund will operate. This is the main factor. However, there is another important reason for the strengthening of the euro against the dollar - this is the growing tendency of investors to take a risky game, to buy shares of companies.

The British currency has also recently begun to grow actively, on the one hand, in the wake of the decision of the Bank of England to expand incentive measures, as well as the recent proposal by the UK Treasury Secretary to put in place an £ 30 billion unemployment plan. In addition, the plan includes a fund of £ 2 billion to create new jobs for the unemployed, £ 3 billion of energy-saving costs for homes and public buildings, and a decision to reduce VAT for the tourism and catering sectors was also announced.

The market has not yet responded to the Brexit issue, which could very likely put pressure on the British currency again. Earlier, the Fed Chancellor, A. Merkel expressed concern over Britain's exit from the EU without a deal, which was the reason why the pound is weak in the currency market for many years.

In general, considering the prospects for the euro currency and pound, we believe that their growth against the dollar is fundamentally motivated, but may be limited due to the uncertainty of the consequences of the coronavirus infection pandemic and the continuing demand for the US currency as a safe haven currency. Radially, the situation will change only if a really effective vaccine for COVID-19 is discovered. However, the lack of an opportunity to understand when this will happen is the main limiting factor in all financial markets, and not just in the currency market.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is under pressure once again in the wake of declining risk appetite in the markets, driven by rising coronavirus outbreak in the United States. The price is above 1.1260, if the mood of the market improves, the pair will begin to grow again to 1.1350. At the same time, if it declines below the level of 1.1260, we should expect its fall to 1.1175.

The GBP/USD pair as well as EUR/USD is balancing between growth and decline in the wake of the general situation in global markets. If it does not rise above the level of 1.2600, it will continue to decline to 1.2460. But, if the situation in the markets calms down, then it is possible that the pair will resume growth to 1.2690.

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USD/JPY price movement for July 10, 2020.

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On the 4-hour chart, the USD/ JPY pair is now trying to reach the 106.81 level as its first target. If the bullish momentum is strong enough, there is a possiblility that USD/JPY will continue its downward movement and reach the 106.09 level too as its second target. This scenario is likely to occur as long as this pair does not rise and close above the 107.41 level.

(Disclaimer)

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USD/JPY. Yen grows: World sets anti-record for the number of COVID-19 infections again

The dollar/yen pair updated the lows of the current month during the Asian session on Friday, falling to the 106th figure. On the one hand, the pair is still trading in the flat band of 106.80-107.90, within which it has been since the beginning of June. On the other hand, the growth of the Japanese currency indicates an increase in anti-risk sentiment in the currency market, since the yen does not have its own arguments to strengthen.

It is obvious that the coronavirus is the main cause of concern for traders. The issue of COVID-19 became secondary in June (in the context of the reaction of financial markets), as despite the ongoing pandemic, the authorities of the world's largest countries relaxed quarantine restrictions and restarted economic processes. In addition, many businesses received support from the authorities and central banks. In other words, the market stopped paying attention to coronavirus for a while, focusing on recovery processes in key countries of the world.

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But the latest figures have forced traders to rethink their priorities. And if the United States was the only hot spot over the past two or three weeks (this is why the US dollar suffered), then yesterday the Bank of Japan sounded the alarm about global trends.

The world set a new anti-record for the number of coronavirus infections yesterday. Over the past 24 hours, 222,825 infections were diagnosed in all monitored countries, and 5,404 patients died. In the United States alone, 61,067 cases of coronavirus were diagnosed over the past 24 hours. The figures are as follows: 42,907 in Brazil, 25,790 in India, 13,674 in South Africa, and 6,509 in Russia. In total, cases of infection were registered in 148 countries around the world.

The head of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, commented on the situation. According to him, the spread of the coronavirus pandemic is "still accelerating", and most countries have not yet managed to control it. Anthony Fauci, the head of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious diseases, added fuel to the fire, saying that the world is "at the very beginning" of a pandemic. He stated that the rate of infection is accelerating, and the countries of the world must again take the necessary measures to contain it. The virologist reiterated that the United States was not the only one that failed to bring the pandemic under control – large outbreaks are recorded in Brazil, South Africa and Asia.

It is worth noting that some countries are now forced to tighten quarantine restrictions again, although in most cases we are talking about local solutions. For example, the state of Victoria was "closed" in Australia. In the United States, southern and western states impose local quarantines, independently determining the scope of restrictive measures. In the European Union, some countries have also decided to delay easing the quarantine or even return to lockdown. In some cases, such decisions lead to riots – for example, in Serbia, people have been protesting for several days in a row, after learning about the authorities' plans to re-impose a curfew in the capital in connection with the COVID-19 outbreak. Meanwhile, several European cities have imposed local quarantines – in particular, in Germany, in Northern Greece, in Slovenia and in Bulgaria.

Such a news flow suggests that the process of global economic recovery can be paused again. The prospects of a re-lockdown has left the market, after which the yen strengthened its position as a safe-haven. If panic among traders continues to grow, the Japanese currency will be in high demand, determining the downward dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. In addition, traders can massively close previously opened positions on the last trading day so as not to leave them on weekends. Profit taking can increase the pressure on the pair.

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If we talk more specifically about price goals, we should consider the technical picture of the pair. A scenario for a decline is clearly emerging here. On the daily chart, the pair is located between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator (whose lines are also narrowed), which indicates the priority of a bearish movement. The pair is also under the Kumo cloud, and the Ichimoku indicator itself has formed a bearish Parade of Lines signal. The first target for the pair's decline – the 106.60 mark – is the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. The main target of the bears is located below, at the bottom of the 106th figure (local price low of 106.05), the breakout of which will open the way to the 105th figure. But it is too early to talk about this: first, the bears need to finally gain a foothold at the 106th price level, before considering further downward prospects.

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USD/CAD Price Movement For July 10, 2020.

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Based on the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD pair is now trying to touch the 1.3623 level as the first target and 1.3715 as the secondary target as long as the Loonie does not retrace downwards and closes below 1.3485. If the pair can pass the 1.3485 level, this scenario will be automatically cancelled.

(Disclaimer)

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on July 10, 2020

The Federal Reserve has fairly scared market participants with the prospect of new stimulus measures, based only on the fact that the pace of economic recovery is too slow. Supposedly, the macroeconomic dynamics rather indicate a prolonged depression. There was every reason to believe that the data on applications for unemployment benefits will only be another proof of these fears. But one look at the euro's chart is enough to know that something has gone wrong. However, there is nothing strange with the Fed being excessively cautious, since the central bank is obliged to behave in this way, and proceed in advance from the worst possible scenarios.

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The data on applications for unemployment benefits differed so much from forecasts that market participants even took some time to understand them. Initially, it was assumed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits would be reduced from 1,427,000 to 1,380,000, and repeated, from 19,290,000 to 19,200,000. If these forecasts were true, it would say that the pace of recovery in economic activity is extremely low, and urgent measures are immediately needed. Otherwise, America will experience a protracted economic depression. However, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to 1,314,000, and repeated to 18,062,000. Moreover, the previous values were revised downward. So, there were 1,413,000 initial applications, and only 18,760,000 repeated ones. In other words, the pace of labor market recovery is noticeably higher than anticipated. Moreover, for a relatively long time. The revision of previous results made participants think, which was the reason for the belated reaction of the market.

Repeated unemployment insurance claims (United States):

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Optimism about the dollar will continue today, because along with the labor market, inflationary dynamics are also of great importance. The rate of decline in producer prices should slow down from -0.8% to -0.3%. Given that producer prices are the leading indicator for inflation, it means that consumer prices will soon begin to grow. At the same time, there is reason to believe that the data will be slightly better, and the rate of decline in producer prices will slow down to -0.2%, which will further please investors.

Producer prices (United States):

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From the point of view of technical analysis, we see an intensive downward move from the range level of 1.1350, which played the role of resistance in the market. The price recovery is 100%, relative to the jump in activity on July 8, where the point of variable support is found in the area of 1.1260/1.1270.

The high level of volatility is confirmed by the speculative hype in the market, on the basis of which there are impulsive jumps.

Considering the trading schedule in general terms (daily period), the price movement is fixed within the boundaries of the previously set band 1,1180//1,1250//1,1350, where the quote has almost reached the average level.

We can assume that another round of short positions will occur if the price is pinned higher than 1.1260, which will lead to a breakout of the average level of 1.1250 and send the quote towards the values of 1.1200-1.1190.

An alternative scenario considers a slowdown in the price within the range of 1.1260/1.1300, in the event that market participants will not be able to consolidate, lower than 1.1260.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute and hour periods signal a sale, due to the price returning to the area of recent support.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 10, 2020

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EUR/GBP is now at the cross-road. The corrective target at 0.8946 is being tested. It may protect the downside if our bullish count is correct. A break above minor resistance at 0.9010 and more importantly a break above resistance at 0.9068 is now needed to keep this count our slightly preferred count.

If, however, EUR/GBP fails to hold above support at 0.8946 and more importantly support at 0.8912 the preferred count shifts in favor of wave 2. Another dip towards 0.8347 should be expected before the correction from 0.9500 finally comes to its conclusion and a new impulsive rally starts.

R3: 0.9068

R2: 0.9010

R1: 0.8992

Pivot: 0.8961

S1: 0.8946

S2: 0.8911

S3: 0.8867

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 0.8646 and we will raise our stop to 0.8610.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 10, 2020

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EUR/JPY took the wrong turn yesterday and failed to break above key resistance at 122.10 and instead plunged down through the support-line at 121.14. Thus, a new impulsive rally is unlikely to unfold. The correction in wave 2 has not completed yet and a deeper correction closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 118.23 and maybe even a dip to the low of wave iv at 117.00 is in motion.

The former support-line will now act as resistance where a minor correction towards 121.44 is seen before the next push closer to the 61.8% corrective target.

R3: 121.44

R2. 121.10

R1: 120.85

Pivot: 120.55

S1: 120.22

S2: 119.76

S3: 119.27

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 121.25 was hit for a nice profit of 130 pips and we will sell EUR at 121.35 and place our stop at 122.00

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 10 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pound returned to its position after unsuccessful

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on the deterioration of the US labor market amid the surge of a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic caused the pound to sharply fall, which formed several signals for entering the market. In my forecast for the afternoon, I advised opening short positions when forming a false breakout at the level of 1.2676, but this range was just a little short, which led to a market reversal and a rapid decline to the support area of 1.2625. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that after a breakout of this range, it was tested from the reverse side, which became a signal to enter the market, counting on a fall to the low of 1.2572, which the pair almost reached in the Asian session. At the moment, the bulls need to fight for the resistance of 1.2625, consolidating on it will be a signal to open long positions in the hopes of continuing growth to the high of 1.2676 and to exit to a larger area of 1.2754, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a downward correction in the first half of the day, you can view purchases when forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.2572, but I recommend opening long positions immediately for a rebound only from the low of 1.2526, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day. You also need to remember that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for June 30 recorded another increase in short and long positions, which indicates confrontation between buyers and sellers. The latter needs to be more active in order to return the wounds to the other side. The COT report indicates that short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 48,170 to the level of 55,414 during the week. Long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 29,654 to the level of 34,424. As a result, the non-commercial net position increased its negative value to -20,990, against -18,516.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

News that the UK government is allocating an additional 38 billion to help companies and businesses no longer provide the support for the pound as it did at the beginning of the week. Focus has now shifted back to the complexities of Brexit and the outbreak of COVID-19 worldwide. At the moment, an important task of the bears is to break through and consolidate below the support of 1.2572, since such a scenario can knock down the bullish momentum and cause the pound to sharply fall towards the area of 1.2526. The long-term goal is still the low of 1.2448, where I recommend taking profits. Another important task is to protect resistance at 1.2625. Forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open short positions. However, it is best to open short positions after updating the larger level of 1.2676, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the probability of continuing the downward correction.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.2570 will increase the pressure on the pound. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.2665.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 10 (analysis of yesterday's trade). One last chance for euro buyers to return

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's data on the state of the US labor market and on the slowdown in the decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US put strong pressure on the euro and the pound, which led to strengthening the US dollar. The breakout of the 1.1319 support, as expected, occurred along with a strong wave of EUR/USD falling to the area of a low of 1.1267, which is now the main trading area. Today, there are a number of average reports for Germany, France and Italy, and poor indicators can only increase the pressure on the pair. Therefore, at the moment, the task of the bulls is to protect the support of 1.1267, since its breakout will lead to a break in the upward trend formed on July 1. I advise opening long positions from this range only after forming a false breakout. When the support breaks 1.1267, it is best to wait for the update of the new low of 1.1233 and open long positions from it immediately for a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. Larger bulls will prefer to wait for the update of the 1.1193 area. An equally important task will be to return EUR/USD to the resistance level of 1.1319, consolidating above it will be an additional signal to buy, which can lead to the week's high in the area of 1.1360, where I recommend taking profits. Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 30 recorded an increase in short positions and a sharp reduction in long ones. This indicates that market participants are taking a more cautious approach to the euro last week, as well as the lack of people willing to buy the single currency when it grows at higher prices. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from the level of 72,368 to the level of 81,432, while long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 190,816 to the level of 180,387. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position decreased to 98,955 against 118,448, which indicates a slowdown in the growth of interest in purchasing risky assets at current prices. So don't be surprised if the pressure on the euro persists at the end of this week, and we will see an update to the lows of the previous one.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's news on the choice of the Eurogroup president did not have a significant impact on the pair. Today sellers of the euro will have to wait for a weak report on inflation in Germany and industrial production in France and Italy. Poor indicators can lead to a breakout of the 1.1267 support, consolidating under it will be a signal to open short positions in the euro in the hope of pulling down and updating the larger low of 1.1233, where I recommend taking profits. The 1.1193 area is the long-term goal. If the pair grows in the first half of the day, it is best to stop selling before forming a false breakout in the area of resistance 1.1319, or open short positions immediately to rebound from the larger resistance 1.1360, counting on a downward correction by the end of the day of at 20-25 points.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a break in the bullish trend.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower border of the indicator around 1.1275 will provide support.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for July 10, 2020

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD reversed sharply from yesterday's peak around 1.1365/70 as expected. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.1273 at this point in writing and could complete its first leg around 1.1250/60 soon. Any intraday rallies from here should remain well capped below 1.1365/70 and EURUSD should continue printing new lows and lower highs. Only a break above 1.1365 would change the structure. Immediate resistance will be at 1.1365/70, while support is around 1.1250/60 respectively. Trading point of view, it might be considered safe to sell on rallies with risk at 1.1365.70.

Trading plan:

Remain short for now, stop @ 1.1400, target @ 1.0930 and lower.

Good luck!

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2020

EUR/USD

The dollar began its offensive on a broad front on Thursday - other currencies, raw materials, and commodity markets declined relative to the dollar. The euro lost 45 points.

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The Marlin oscillator is moving deeper into the negative zone on the daily chart, but the price is still above the balance line (red indicator) and above the target level of 1.1265. Formally, this is the intention of the price to work out the nearest support of 1.1195 and go even lower, that is, a reversal to achieve deeper goals (1.1090, 1.1010), but the probability of Marlin returning to the growth zone with a subsequent price movement to 1.1420 and forming a divergence also remains. The option for a further decline will come into effect after the price is pinned below the level of 1.1195, the option for an increase could start when the price overcomes the control level of 1.1315.

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The reversal divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart, and the price going under the MACD line (1.1250) will also mean that the price is pinned at 1.1265. In this case, we are waiting for a decline to the first goal of 1.1195.

The price's exit above the signal level of 1.1325 opens an intermediate target of 1.1353, and consolidating above it will continue to grow to 1.1420.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 10, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is losing interest in growth every day. The price spent the whole week in a sideways direction, it closed Thursday with a black candle of 16 points. This nature of the price significantly reduces the probability of forming a triple divergence for Marlin. Commodity markets also intervened: oil fell 3.18% (WTI) yesterday, and Australia's most important export commodity iron ore fell 2.37%. The composite index of non-ferrous metals is still growing - yesterday's growth was 1.29%. Consolidating the aussie below the 0.6900 level can turn the price into a new medium-term trend, the first goal is 0.6745 - support for the daily MACD line.

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The aussie still has a chance to continue growing to the level of 0.7080, but the price will need to overcome yesterday's high (0.7002) for this.

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The Marlin divergence formed on the four-hour chart. The price is below the red balance indicator line. Preparation for the attack on 0.6900 is complete, the only thing left is to implement it. This could prevent the MACD line at around 0.6920. We are waiting for developments.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 10, 2020

USD/JPY

The US stock market fell by 0.56% (S&P 500) on Thursday, the yen followed it, losing five points. Investors were probably not quite ready for the stock market to slip, so the decline in the yen is moderate on the internal desire of investors to still buy the USD/JPY pair, because the dollar itself is strengthening. However, consolidating the price under the MACD line (106.95) on the daily chart may change the nature of the market to the opposite – the yen will fall to support the embedded price channel line in the area of 105.74. The Marlin oscillator has been in the negative trend zone for more than a week.

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The price is pinned under the balance and MACD indicator lines, Marlin is in the negative zone, the intention of the price to go below 106.95 is clear, but the moment is critical, so you should wait for the price to actually consolidate under the specified level. Afterwards, you can open short positions on the pair.

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An exit of the price over the MACD line, above 107.40, will send the price back to the level of 107.77. This will be an even more powerful attack on the price of it than it was in the first decade of July.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on July 10. COT report. Buyers keep the pair in their hands. Sellers

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD currency pair, unlike EUR/USD, started a much weaker correction inside its ascending channel. In the British currency's case, there are no special prerequisites for statements about the end of the upward trend in the short term. The quotes are located near the lower border of the channel and the critical Kijun-sen line. The bulls gave up on reaching the resistance area of 1.2668–1.2688. However, this does not mean that the pair's movement vector has changed to going up. In general, the US dollar continues to remain under pressure from market participants and, even if the pound sterling is quite confidently growing in price, this does not mean that America is doing well. You see, at the same time, Great Britain is not doing so well. The British pound does not have a long-term fundamental support that would allow it to expect a stronger growth. Therefore, for the time being, we can expect that there will be a rebound from the lower border of the channel with the resumption of upward movement.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, so the overall trend remains upward in the short term. The latest COT report for the British pound was not as categorical as it was for the euro. Professional traders opened both Long and Short contracts during the reporting week (June 24-30). However, there were so much more for the latter, almost 4,500. Given the fact that the total number of open positions for sale in the Non-commercial category is 56,000, and the net position is currently -20958, then 4,500 is quite a lot. However, for the period after June 30, the British pound only continued to grow in price, ignoring the COT report. Thus, there are two possible options. Either professional market participants in the time period of July 1–9 sharply changed their mindset and began to open contracts to buy the pound, or a serious and prolonged fall in the British currency is brewing. In any case, we do not recommend opening positions in any direction without confirmation by technical signals.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair on Thursday, we can say, was on the side of the US currency. At least this is what market participants concluded. There has been no news from the UK for several days. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made a speech yesterday, who announced that the US Congress may adopt a new project to help the economy in the near future. Mnuchin believes that this could happen before the end of July. However, Mnuchin also said that payments to Americans will not be as generous as previously planned, as this deters people from looking for work. On the one hand, this is good news for the American economy. On the other hand, nothing has been decided yet. Market participants reacted, if not to rumors, then to promises. The aid package may not be passed by Congress and in any case means that the current state of the US economy is deplorable. This is not surprising, since all countries of the world have been seriously affected by the epidemic, quarantine and the coronavirus crisis. However, the epidemic persists in the United States and this should be the number one topic for the dollar. Thus, we believe that the dollar is unlikely to receive long-term support.

There are two main scenarios as of July 10:

1) The prospects for upward movement are preserved thanks to the ascending channel. A small correction that took place could be completed today. The price rebound from the lower border of the channel or the Kijun-sen line will be a signal to open new purchases with the goals of the resistance area of 1.2668–1.2688 and the resistance level of 1.2867. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 70 to 270 points.

2) Sellers are advised to wait for the pair to consolidate below the ascending channel, and at the same time below the Kijun-sen line(1.2557). In this case, the downward trend will resume, and the first targets for sell orders will be the support area of 1.2403–1.2423 and the support level of 1.2311. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 110 to 230 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 10. COT report. Bulls urgently need to gather strength and

EUR/USD 1H

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Buyers made another attempt to continue forming an upward trend on the hourly timeframe on July 9, which, by the way, is visible only on small timeframes. A side channel is clearly visible on the four-hour chart and above, in which the euro/dollar pair has been trading in for a month. The high that is in favor of the bulls is the presence of a small upward bias in recent weeks, which is expressed by an ascending channel on the lower timeframe. However, buyers once again failed to confidently overcome the resistance area of 1.1326–1.1342 yesterday, and when their attempts were crowned with local success, an insurmountable barrier was found in the resistance level of 1.1362. Thus, the final rebound from this level sent the quotes to the lower border of the ascending channel, near which the fate of the pair will now be decided for the next few days and weeks. If buyers do not interfere in what is happening, the quotes will fall below the channel, which will mean a change in the trend to a downward one. Overcoming the Senkou Span B line will be a strong enough signal to open sales. Thus, the bears need to overcome the 1.1285–1267 area, and the bulls need to keep this area.

EUR/USD 15M

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The lower channel of linear regression turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, which also signals a downward trend (now). However, the key levels and support areas are focused on the hourly timeframe, so it is more informative. Just yesterday, after analyzing the latest COT report, we mentioned that professional traders actively got rid of Buy-contracts and opened Sell-contracts during the reporting week. Therefore, a strong upward movement did not correspond to the nature of positions opened by professional players, who are considered to move the market in one direction or another. We assumed that the euro has few prospects for further growth, although, from a fundamental point of view, the single currency has some support. However, the markets are driven not by the foundation, but by traders, primarily large ones.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair is now somewhat contradictory. On the one hand, the euro has recently had some support due to the high growth rates of COVID-2019 distribution abroad. However, in articles on fundamental analysis, we said that it is unlikely for the euro to go far on this factor alone. It is too early to say that the upward trend on the hourly chart is complete, but the first steps in this direction have been taken. At the same time, the US currency has few prospects for strong growth. As we have already mentioned, the coronavirus epidemic is not just a disease, it is a pandemic that has caused the most serious crisis in recent decades. Thus, if the pandemic continues to develop in the United States, the country's economy will not recover, despite any assurances from US President Donald Trump that there will already be a serious recovery in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, and "2021 will be a great year for the American economy." So far, everything is going to the fact that the US economy will experience another lockdown or partial quarantine, since quarantine measures have already been tightened in some states, and the total number of cases of the disease has exceeded three million.

Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for July 10:

1) Buyers reached the area of 1.1326-1.1342 for the fifth time in the last month and have once again failed to confidently overcome it and leave it behind. Thus, we recommend buying the euro only if the bulls keep the initiative in their hands, the pair will remain inside the ascending channel, and later it will be possible to gain a foothold above the area of 1.1326–1.1342. In this case it will be possible to open purchases with the goals of 1.1362 and 1.1422. Potential Take Profit is up to 80 points in this case.

2) Since the bears have not yet managed to leave the ascending channel, it is too early to open Sell positions. We recommend waiting for the moment when traders will be able to pin the pair below the Senkou Span B line(1.1267), which will automatically mean overcoming the channel. In this case, the bulls will give the initiative to the bears, and we recommend selling the pair with targets at 1.1228, 1.1186 and 1.1126. The potential Take Profit in this case is from 20 to 130 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 10. Negative from Britain, negative from the US. Traders are still taking into account

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 105.7463

The British pound has been trading higher for most of the last trading day of the week. Market participants still attached high importance to what is happening in the US at this time and ignored all the negative news about the negotiations between Brussels and London. This is partly true. The British currency has been falling in price on Brexit news for the past three years. Now, when for once things are not so bad in the UK against the backdrop of America, why should the pound not show the maximum possible growth? We certainly do not believe that the British currency can return to, for example, $ 1.35 in 2020. However, in general, if you look at the monthly chart, it is obvious that the long-term downward trend in the pound has been maintained since 2007, and the last four years are just its final stage. Thus, against the background of a fall from the level of $ 2.11, the decline in the last 3-4 years looks scanty. But the US economy has finally begun to allow other currencies to breathe more easily. What will happen in the long term is still unclear. However, while there is a chance to grow, you need to grow.

Over the past day, no new news was received on the topic of Brexit and negotiations with Brussels. But more and more experts and political scientists are closely examining the situation with Hong Kong. Recall that under the agreement with London in 1984, Hong Kong must maintain a special status (something like autonomy) in China for 50 years, starting in 1997. The city should have its judicial system, government, currency, and other attributes of independence independent of the will of Beijing, leaving only issues of international politics and national security to the Chinese capital. However, the adoption by Beijing of the law on "national security in Hong Kong" levels the entire autonomy of Hong Kong, since any citizen of Hong Kong can now be tried under Chinese laws, accusing him of terrorism, espionage, and any other actions that endanger Chinese security. Naturally, Beijing immediately came under criticism not only from the US but also from the UK, the European Union, and Australia. Experts believe that now there will be tension in relations not between China and the United States, but between China and the whole world. And here, the formation of the so-called "anti-Chinese coalition" will be just in Washington's hands. In principle, China, despite all its power, which allows it to conduct an equal dialogue with the same States, can be said to stumble over the same rake that the Soviet Union and the other Communist States previously stumbled over. Excessive concentration of power in one hand, the absence of a coalition as such - is not always good. All power in China is the CPC (Communist Party of China), and the CPC is Xi Jinping, its leader. The calculation of the Chinese government, according to many political scientists, is extremely simple. Since much of the world depends on the Chinese economy and Hong Kong's financial flows, the CPC believes that neither the United States nor the European Union will simply escalate the conflict and turn a blind eye to its actions concerning Hong Kong. The Chinese leadership believes that the capitalist West is primarily guided by the principles of business, and therefore will not allow itself to miss the profit that could be obtained by continuing to cooperate with China and Hong Kong on its Chinese terms. And even more so, Western capitalists are unlikely to voluntarily give profits to competitors, who can very quickly displace American companies and American businessmen from the Hong Kong "pond". And here, much will now depend on the ability of all those who are dissatisfied with China's policy towards Hong Kong to conduct targeted actions. The European Union and the United States can "express dissatisfaction", impose sanctions against 5-10 Chinese officials and thus end the process of proceedings, as it is called, peacefully. Formally, the sanctions will be imposed, but not really. But if the EU or the US impose real sanctions, which may concern tourism, trade, various technologies, and financial transactions (yes, the notorious SWIFT international payment system), then China's prestige and well-being may be seriously damaged. In this case, it is unlikely that Beijing will sit back and not strike back at its enemies. This means that the world may face a new cold war, new trade conflicts, and well if nothing else. And strange as it may seem, the future US presidential elections will be of great importance for the development of mitigation of the US-China conflict, which can involve the whole world. If Trump wins the election, there is no doubt that he will continue the dialogue with China from a position of strength. There is no doubt that new sanctions and trade restrictions will be imposed, and at the same time, Washington will seek to win over other major world players to create a blockade for China, as much as possible to limit its capabilities and influence in the international arena. China, of course, will respond and we hope that another virus will not break out from some laboratory. If Joe Biden, who is known for his friendly attitude towards China, wins, there is no doubt that relations between the two economic giants will be on the path of easing and improving. What will be beneficial at the end of the whole world? We are not going into a more complex and long-term policy now.

Well, in the shorter term, the "coronavirus" epidemic in the United States is more important. We do not see any other reasons for the sharp strengthening of the British currency. However, we believe that such grounds for buying the pound may cease to apply at any time. This means that we should not forget about technical factors that are more important at this time. Moreover, the macroeconomic reports continue to be ignored by traders, the future of both the British and American economies is unclear, and no publication or speech by a high-ranking official is planned for the last trading day of the week.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 84 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Friday, July 10, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2534 and 1.2703. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate the resumption of the upward movement.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2573

S2 – 1.2512

S3 – 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2634

R2 – 1.2695

R3 – 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a weak correction on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to open new buy orders with the goals of 1.2695 and 1.2756, after the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. It is recommended to sell the pair after fixing quotes below the moving average with the first goals of 1.2451 and 1.2390.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 10. Is a new panic beginning to engulf the markets, or is everything going according to

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 7.7371

The fourth trading day of the week again passed with a slight advantage of the European currency. However, in the American trading session, the quotes moved down a little, but at the same time, the pound calmly continued to trade with an increase. As we have said many times, there is no positive macroeconomic information coming from the European Union or the UK. Therefore, it is difficult to assume that yesterday's growth was associated with positive data from the EU and the Kingdom. Most likely, market participants continued to sell off the US currency against the backdrop of the second "wave" of the coronavirus epidemic, which is growing like a snowball. And this is becoming a big problem for the United States.

If a few weeks or months ago, the epidemic was about the same scale in the European Union and the United States, now the situation is the opposite. In the European Union, they managed to reduce the growth rate of the disease to "less than 1" (the contagion index, which shows how many people are infected by each infected person) through strict quarantine and awareness of citizens. The value "less than one" means that each patient infects less than one person, so the epidemic is on the wane, and governments can only respond quickly to reports of new outbreaks and localize these places of new infections. At the same time, Europe really has every reason to restart the economy, complete or ease quarantines, and open borders. But in the United States, nothing like this can boast. The total number of cases of "coronavirus" has exceeded 3 million, the authorities are doing nothing to stop the spread of the infection, Donald Trump continues to make discouraging statements, and Anthony Fauci sounds the alarm, saying that "the virus is out of control". In just one day, on July 8, 61.5 thousand cases of the disease were recorded in the United States. This is the maximum increase since the beginning of the pandemic. As you can imagine, the epidemic is only progressing. Thus, now it is the American economy that is at risk since it will be slowed down by the second "wave" of the epidemic in any case. Also in Europe, not everything is fine. According to the authorities of some states, the virus has been curbed, however, it has not gone away, and if people do not comply with the mask regime and rules of distancing, the second "wave" can not be avoided. However, there is no second "wave" in Europe yet, so it is the dollar that continues to feel quite weak against the euro.

Most importantly, the "coronavirus" in the United States has already become a topic of political battles. For all the statements of Donald Trump concerning the "coronavirus", you can create a whole collection, which will then be shown in universities that prepare future politicians and rulers for graduation. It is the "coronavirus" that can cause Donald Trump to become one of the few presidents who will not be re-elected for a second term. One of the latest statements of Trump caused another public outcry, as the leader of the American nation jokingly stated that "we probably need to conduct fewer tests so that the incidence begins to decrease". It was Trump's joking tone that angered the media, Democrats, and everyone who does not support the US President. Joe Biden, who is still in his residence and does not appear in public unnecessarily, setting the right example to Americans how to behave during the epidemic, recorded a video in which he harshly criticizes Donald Trump, his words about the epidemic, his inaction, inability to lead the country in difficult times and excessive desire to be re-elected for a second term, which prevails over the desire to fight the epidemic. In principle, we have said repeatedly that Biden doesn't even need to do anything now to convince Americans to vote for him in November. Trump himself "digs a hole", he does everything to avoid being re-elected. And by the way, it is very difficult to disagree with Biden. It doesn't matter whether you support the Democratic candidate or not, but it is Biden who exudes the qualities the country needs in these times. Biden does not ride around the country with election rallies, does not blame China for everything that is happening, does not insult his opponents, does not get into various scandalous stories, he can not be accused of trying to smear the current President. Oh, and you can't call him a racist or raise such suspicions about him, and he wears a mask, unlike the President. Trump also managed to cast a shadow on himself even in a racist scandal, when he first wanted to disperse all demonstrators and protesters with the help of the regular army, referring to the law of 1806, which was never applied and then retweeting a video with openly racist overtones to his page.

By the way, the highest threat of coronavirus is understood by almost all economists and financiers in the United States. Representatives of the Federal Reserve have repeatedly stated that it is the pandemic that can hinder the recovery of the American economy in the future and affect the pace of this process. Also, Jerome Powell and other Fed representatives have repeatedly called on Congress to agree on a new package of economic assistance that will be sent to businesses and ordinary Americans suffering from the "coronavirus crisis". But instead of solving these important problems, we read in the news the skirmishes between Trump and Biden on the issue of opening schools in September (Donald accuses Joseph of refusing to open schools for political reasons and believes that this way the Democrats intend to get a greater political rating).

On the last trading day of the week in the European Union and the United States, no important publications or speeches are planned. Thus, market participants will again have to pay attention only to the next speeches of Trump, criticism of him from his opponents, and other near-economic and near-political topics. Although the issue of "coronavirus" in the US remains in the first place, and the more cases of the disease are recorded in the United States, the higher the probability of a further fall in the dollar. Although, from a technical point of view, the euro/dollar pair continues to trade near the upper border of the side channel, in which it spent the last month, that is, near the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353. Although yesterday the quotes went slightly above this level, there was no consolidation above it, so buyers are now also a little in doubt, unlike buyers of the pound, who are actively buying the British currency.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 10 is 78 points and is characterized as "average". We expect the pair to move between 1.1215 and 1.1371 levels today. A new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a new round of upward movement within the side channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade near the moving average line, inside a side channel with a slight upward slope. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to trade down if traders manage to overcome the level of 1.1200, which is the approximate lower limit of the channel, with the goal of 1.1108. It is recommended to open buy orders not earlier than overcoming the Murray level of "5/8"-1.1353 with the goal of 1.1475, and then very carefully.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. Market believes Mnuchin: dollar celebrating a small victory, but you should not rush to sell

The euro-dollar pair updated the local high today, reaching 1.1371. The last time the price was at this level was almost a month ago - on June 11. The rapid increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the US weakened the greenback, the price fell across the market. But buyers failed to keep their positions once again. A few hours after the beginning of the US session, EUR/USD bears took the initiative and returned the price to the area of the 12th figure. There was no price breakthrough: the pair stayed in the range of 1.1260-1.1350, within which it "walks" throughout the current week. There is a feeling that traders of the pair are experiencing a kind of crisis, when the incoming news flow is not able to reverse or continue the trend.

Looking ahead, it is worth warning that despite the current downward momentum, short positions look risky - unless, of course, we are talking about scalping. In all other cases, do not rush to make trading decisions. The decline in the price of EUR/USD is emotional and is based on the comments of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. He said that the next bill on measures to help the economy in the conditions of coronavirus is "at the final stage of its development." Mnuchin added that he "will do everything to ensure that the bill is approved by Congress before the end of July." He also said that he supports new direct payments to citizens, but he did not specify what level of income restriction the White House will support.

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In general, he made it clear that the administration will offer a more modest bill compared to a similar document that was previously passed in the House of Representatives. In particular, this applies to the payment of unemployment benefits. According to the secretary of the Treasury, "generous insurance keeps some people from returning to the workplace, since they earn more at home than at their work." Mnuchin also said that the options developed by the White House for providing financial assistance will be "more targeted". According to American journalists, almost every item of the announced program goes against the initiatives of representatives of the Democratic party.

Let me remind you that in early June, the Democrats initiated the adoption of their financial assistance package. They were able to pass it in the House of Representatives, but at the same time became the object of criticism from the White House and Republicans. US President Donald Trump made it clear that the bill is too expensive, and therefore will not pass the millstone of the Senate and in any case will not be signed by him. Against the background of such events, it is unlikely that the legislative initiative of the White House will be received by Democrats with cordiality. It is also necessary to remember that the US presidential election is less than five months away, so all legislative initiatives are now considered through the prism of the election race.

Thus, the fundamental background for the dollar is still negative. First of all, this is not the first time Mnuchin has voiced such promises – the last time he promised to present and introduce the above-mentioned bill to Congress was at the end of May. Second, the ongoing political differences between Democrats and Republicans will not allow the White House to automatically adopt a new stimulus package (it should be recalled here that the Democratic party controls the House of Representatives). And third – no one has canceled the coronavirus yet, so tomorrow's statistics could plunge dollar bulls into depression, especially if the daily increase in infected people exceeds the 60,000 mark again.

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Continuing the topic of coronavirus, it is necessary to say one more fundamental factor that supported the dollar today. The statement from the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Anthony Fauci. He said that a coronavirus vaccine could be created by the end of this year or the beginning of the next. The US currency reacted quite sharply to this phrase, strengthening its position throughout the market. But behind the headlines lies an important clarifying comment from Fauci – he said that the third phase of clinical trials "can probably begin" by the end of July.

The fact is that at the moment, pharmacists in many countries of the world are developing more than ten versions of vaccines – but no company has yet passed the third stage of clinical trials. So far, only the Chinese have reached the last stage – this month they will start the final tests in the UAE. Therefore, it is premature to talk about the appearance of a vaccine - according to the most optimistic estimates, the drug will appear in six months or a year.

In summary, it should be noted that despite the strong downward momentum (the EUR/USD pair lost almost 100 points in just a few hours), the bears could not even approach the support level of 1.1260 (the average line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines on the daily chart). All this suggests that dollar bulls are not confident in their abilities, and sellers rushed to close deals as soon as the pair began to slow down its downward course. Therefore, it is now advisable to take a wait-and-see position for the pair. Tomorrow, after the publication of new data on the rate of spread of COVID-19 in the US, the fundamental picture of EUR/USD may change dramatically.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Comprehensive analysis of movement options for EUR/GBP & EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY (H4) on July 10, 2020

Minute operational scale (H4)

How will the main currency instruments behave relative to each other from July 10, 2020 - options for the development of the movement of the currency pairs EUR/GBP & EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY in the H4 timeframe

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Euro vs Great Britain pound

From July 10, 2020, the development of the movement of the "main" EUR/GBP cross-instrument will be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.9020 - 0.8980 - 0.8940) of the Minuette operational scale fork - see the details of working out the specified levels on the animated chart.

The breakdown of the support level at 0.8940 on the lower border ISL61.8 zone equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork will make the actual continuation of the downward movement of the "main" cross-tool to the borders of the channel 1/2 Median Line (0.8870 - 0.8790 - 0.8800) of the Minute operational scale fork.

In case of breaking the resistance level of 0.9020 at the upper boundary ISL38.2 zone equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork will be possible development of upward movement of the EUR/GBP to the initial line SSL (0.9070) of the Minute operational scale fork and channel borders 1/2 Median Line Minuette (0.9090 - 0.9120 - 0.9150).

The EUR/GBP movement options from July 10, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

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Euro vs Japanese yen

The development of the EUR/JPY cross-instrument movement will continue in the 1/2 Median Line channel from July 10, 2020 (122.70 - 121.60 - 120.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork, taking into account the development and breakdown direction of the range:

  • resistance level of 121.60 - 1/2 Median Line Minute;
  • support level of 121.35 - LTL control line of the Minuette operational scale fork.

If the support level 121.35 - on the line of control LTL of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the continued movement of the cross tool to the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (120.70), local minimum 119.27 and the upper boundary ISL38.2 (119.15) equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork.

If the resistance level of 121.60 is broken at 1/2 Median Line Minute, the upward movement of EUR/JPY will be directed to the targets:

  • upper limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute (122.70);
  • initial SSL line (123.35) of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (124.20);
  • maximum 124.40.

From July 10, 2020, we look at the EUR/JPY movement options on the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs Japanese yen

The development of the movement of the EUR/JPY cross-instrument in June 2020 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level 136.15 - the lower limit of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 134.66 is the upper limit of ISL61.8 balance zone of the Minute operational scale fork.

The breakout of ISL61.8 Minute - the support level of 134.66 - together with the initial SSL line (134.31) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the development of the GBP/JPY movement in the equilibrium zone (134.66 - 133.30 - 131.94) of the Minute operational scale fork.

In the breakdown of the resistance level 136.15, the movement of the cross tool will be continued in the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (136.15 - 137.30 - 138.50) with the prospect of reaching the lower border ISL38.2 (139.50) zone equilibrium of the Minuette operational scale fork with a possible upgrade of the maximum of 139.71.

Details of the development of the GBP/JPY movement from July 10, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Evening review for EUR/USD on 07/09/2020

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EUR/USD:

The US employment report for the week came out. The number of initial applications declined from 1.5 dollars to 1.3 million dollars, while the number of long-term unemployed declined to 18 million. The data is strong, and this has affected the euro.

As a result, seller's pressure has increased.

A range has formed today.

We are ready to buy from the level of 1.1370.

We are ready to sell from the level of 1.126.

So far, we hold purchases from 1.1245, stop and then flip down to the level of 1.1260.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD. Weak greenback not a reason to open long positions

Despite the general weakness of the US currency, the AUD/USD pair behaves rather modestly, demonstrating low volatility. The aussie tried to approach the key resistance level of 0.7000 during the Asian session on Thursday – but did not even test the specified price area. The Australian dollar has lost its previous heat and has been besieging an unassailable resistance level for several weeks. It is noteworthy that even a significant decline in the dollar index did not help AUD/USD buyers develop an upward offensive: sellers take the initiative as soon as the price approaches the target of 0.7000, exerting general pressure on the pair.

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This state of affairs allows you to implement a simple trading strategy. In fact, this strategy seems to be followed by many market participants: they sell the pair as soon as it approaches the mentioned resistance level. The 0.7000 level is a "hard nut". It served as a reliable support level for many months: in the first half of 2019, the bears permanently tried to go below this target for several months, but they came back each time. The situation acquired a mirror character in the second half of 2019 – the 0.7000 mark became a kind of price outpost, acting as a resistance level. Bulls tried to storm the 70th figure more than ten times, but the price still fell under the round mark in the end. In other words, this target has a special symbolic meaning for the aussie.

Given this background, it is not surprising that most traders open short positions from the level of 0.7000 – because a powerful information driver is needed to overcome it, while many fundamental factors are now playing against the Australian currency.

Let me remind you that the current weakness of the US dollar is due to the coronavirus factor. An anti-record was reported in the United States: the daily incidence rate reached 61,000. The market started talking about another lockdown, the growth of unemployment and the aggravation of the economic crisis.

But the trendy factor put pressure on the aussie. The fact is that in Australia, and to be more precise, in the state of Victoria, an outbreak of COVID-19 was also reported. For this reason, Melbourne, which is the second largest Australian city, has again strengthened the quarantine. Now residents of the five-million-city metropolis will have to stay at home for six weeks. The authorities have also closed the country from internal migration: police and troops are stationed at border crossings, patrolling vast borders with the help of drones.

Such news does not contribute to the growth of the national currency. The Australian economy has just begun to show signs of recovery, so any mention of coronavirus outbreaks in the country will put pressure on the aussie.

Also, don't forget about the long-running political conflict between China and Australia. This conflict between Canberra and Beijing has not faded, but is still developing in a spiral. If at first China imposed relatively minor economic sanctions (in particular, the Chinese increased duties on certain types of Australian goods, while refusing to import beef), then the conflict manifested itself in other areas – for example, representatives of China called on Chinese students not to return to Australian universities "because of racist incidents". A little later, the Chinese security services accused the Australians of spying, and the Australian authorities hinted at the involvement of the Chinese in cyber espionage.

Now Hong Kong has been added to this. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the Hong Kong issue is a painful one for Beijing. The Chinese authorities consider Hong Kong their full-fledged territory, where the formula "one country – two political systems" operates. Therefore, any comments of foreign politicians on the Hong Kong issue are perceived by the Chinese "with hostility", claiming interference in the internal affairs of the state.

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However, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison just announced the suspension of the extradition treaty with Hong Kong after the decision of the Chinese authorities to adopt a new law "on ensuring national security" on the territory of this semi-autonomous city. According to him, the Australian authorities do not rule out a "broad interpretation" of the mentioned law, hinting at possible reprisals against the opposition. In addition, the head of the Australian government spoke about other measures to support Hong Kongers in the current situation. In particular, those who are currently in Australia on a work or study visa will be able to extend it for up to five years with the possibility of further obtaining a residence permit.

This position will only worsen the political conflict between Australia and China. At the same time, the resolution of the Australian-Chinese conflict is a prerequisite for the further development of the upward trend. As an alternative, we can assume further weakening of the greenback, but even in this case, the growth of AUD/USD will be unreliable, especially above the 0.7000 mark. Any signals of an escalation of the political conflict will return the aussie to the 69th figure. Thus, you are advised to consider short positions when the pair approaches the resistance level of 0.7000. The support level is 0.6920 - this is the average line of the Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines on the daily chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com