Bitcoin analysis for December 05, 2017

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $11,826. RSK Labs has announced that the main network of their Bitcoin-powered smart contract platform is launching in beta on Monday after more than two years of development. The company claims to have secured the support of 90 percent of Bitcoin's hashing power for merge mining the RSK sidechain. All developers are encouraged to take part in a bug bounty program during this beta phase. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found successful rejection of support at the price of $11,487, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The trend is bullish and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upawrd target is set at the price of $12,380.

Support/Resistance

$11.062 – Intraday pivot

$11.908 – Pivot resistance 1

$12.381 – Pivot resistance 2

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EUR/USD analysis for December 05, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1845. According to the 1H time – frame, I found testing of support cluster at the price of 1.1840, wich is sign that selling at this stage looks risky. I also found a larger support cluster at the price of 1.1815 in the background, which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1876 and at the price of 1.1930.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1887

R2: 1.1907

R3: 1.1936

Support levels:

S1: 1.1837

S2: 1.1808

S3: 1.1788

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 5, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback was expected towards 0.7050.

On the other hand, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating bullish reversal.

That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 can be considered for a short-term BUY entry. S/L should be placed below 0.6770. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050.

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Global macro overview for 05/12/2017

The highly anticipated next step to break up in Brexit negotiations between Britain and the EU have finally collapsed. The question of setting the border (for trade and passenger traffic) between the UK and the EU is a dispute, and the difference of opinion concerns the island of Ireland. Brussels would like Northern Ireland to be regulated, while Belfast demands equal treatment with the rest of Britain. Prime Minister May reckon with the opinion of the DUP, the largest party in Northern Ireland, which supports the May government in the parliament. Although May and Juncker stressed yesterday that "sufficient progress" should be reached by the EU summit on December 14, it gives more than a week of discussions and changes, and above all shows that Brexit negotiations are not and will not be an easy process. For GBP, this means that once again many traders have burned in the trade of optimism for the entire operation and the capitulation will be a ballast pulling the pound down. Of course, until the press does not reach another positive revelation.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame.The high at the level of 1.3549 might be considered as the top of the wave 2 and indeed the price is moving lower. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.3368 and then at the level of 1.3220. Please notice the diminishing upward momentum supports the bearish outlook.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 5, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The current price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if the current signs of bearish rejection are maintained.

S/L should be placed above 1.2030. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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Global macro overview for 05/12/2017

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the main interest rates at the level of 1.5%, just as expected. This marks the fifteenth meeting in a row the RBA has held rates steady, with the last rate movement taking place in August 2016 with a 25 basis point rate cut. In the Monetary Policy Statement, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe remained relatively optimistic in his discussion on the strength of the labour market but pointed to a possible skills shortage. He said that: "There are reports that some employers are finding it more difficult to hire workers with the necessary skills. However, wage growth remains low. This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the stronger conditions in the labour market should see some lift in wage growth over time."

Even if the RBA still has a plan to tighten the monetary policy even further, the economic conditions do not favour this kind of decision until at least middle of 2018. In order to hike the interest rates, the inflation must accelerate above 2.0% and most importantly, wages growth must accelerate as well above 2.0% ( it has been tried for last three years).

AUD has found support in better data on retail sales (0.5% vs. 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior) and RBA, which has changed little over the past month despite some disappointments in the data. The RBA has high hopes in reading GDP for the third quarter, so if the data disappoints, the Aussie will have much to lose.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the technical support at the level of 0.7552, but did not manage to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 0.7645 yet. If it does, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 0.7742.

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USD/JPY analysis for December 05, 2017

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 112.41. I found successful rejection of the major median line in the backgrorund, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a broken smaller upward channel inside of the larger channel, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 112.10 and at the price of 111.75.

Resistance levels:

R1: 112.87

R2: 113.35

R3: 113.60

Support levels:

S1: 112.14

S2: 111.89

S3: 111.42

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 05, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still trading around the spot of 0.6850-0.6900. Today, the level of 0.6944 represents the double top.
  • The pair has already formed minor resistance at 0.6895 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 0.6944 because it represents the weekly resistance 1.
  • So, major resistance is seen at 0.6944, while immediate support is found at 0.6831. If the pair hits below the price of 0.6831, the NZD/USD pair may resume its movement to 0.6816 to test the daily support 2.
  • The NZD/USD pair to move between the levels of 0.6940 and 0.6816. The RSI is still calling for a strong bearish market. The current price is also below the moving average 100. As a result, sell below the price of 0.6940 with targets at 0.6831 and 0.6816.
  • However, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be useful to set the stop loss above the last bullish wave at the level of 0.6960 (major resistance is seen at the price of 0.6944).
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 05, 2017

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Overview:

  • Pivot: 0.9862.
  • The price is still trading around the area of 0.9860. The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9818 (major suppor today). Since the price is above this level, the market is still in an uptrend. Furthermore, the trend is still strong above the moving average (100). The USD/CHF pair didn't make any significant movements yesterday. Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the mentioned support levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found around the spot of 0.9818 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.9882. If the trend breaks the first resistance at 0.9882, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 0.9910 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, if the USD/CHF pair succeeds to break through the support level of 0.9818 today, the market will decline further to 0.9778 in order to retest the doubl bottom on the H1 chart. Also, it should be noted that the major resistance is seen at 0.9946.
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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 5, 2017

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair did not do anything significant yesterday; but the bullish bias is still present. A further bullish movement is possible this week, for price could target the resistance lines at 1.1900, 1.1950 and 1.2000. A stubborn opposition would be met at the resistance line of 1.2000.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair went downwards massively on Friday, and then opened this week with a gap-up. However, the bearish bias on the market remains valid. Unless the resistance level at 0.9900 is breached to the upside, there cannot be any threat the bearish bias. Further bearish movements are a possibility.

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GBP/USD: The Cable has fluctuated southwards since the beginning of this week, and that is about to create a threat to the recent bullish effort in the market. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3300 would render the bullish effort invalid, while a movement to the upside (from here), would strengthen it.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument opened with a minor gap-up this week. After the supply level at 113.00 has been tested, price began to consolidate. Since the bearish outlook on the market is still valid, the pair is expected to continue going downwards, towards the demand levels at 112.50, 112.00, and 111.50.

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EUR/JPY: After this cross opened early this week, there has been a slight bearish correction in a context of an uptrend. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart remains extant – unless price goes below the demand zone at 132.50. A movement upwards from here is anticipated, which would take price towards the supply zones at 133.50 and 134.00.

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Bitcoin analysis for 05/12/2017

Currently, the South Korean government remains very positive towards Bitcoin and recently announced that it intends to introduce a national regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market. According to Cointelegraph, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Strategy and Finance of South Korea, Kim Dong-yeon announced that the government is actively investigating methods for providing Bitcoin investors with consumer protection, introducing stricter Know-Your-Customer (KYC) rules on anti-money laundering (AML) and protection of customer resources.

The South Korean government is not going to ban any aspect or area of the cryptocurrency market, because such a policy can lead to the migration of investors and their funds to unregulated OTC markets, which are significantly more difficult to oversee by the government. This means that the rumor that the South Korean government is introducing barriers to the virtual currency market is not true. Last week, the Ministry of Finance and Korea's Strategy revealed that it has already begun the process of developing various regulations for cryptocurrencies. What's more, South Korean deputy prime minister Kim Dong-Yeon said: "The South Korean Ministry of Finance and Strategy has developed a tax policy regarding Bitcoin trading. However, the regulatory framework for Bitcoin taxation will not be implemented in 2018."

Let's take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is still hovering around the recent all-time highs at the level of $11,785. The golden trend line still provides a dynamic support for the price and the key level to the downside is at $10,494. In a case of a breakout higher, the next target for the price is at the level of $12,284.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 05, 2017

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair reversed a trajectory to the downside after peaking at 113.08 yesterday (December 4). Currently, it remains on the downside while being capped by a descending 20-period moving average, which has crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index is badly directed below the neutrality level of 50, indicating further downward momentum for the pair. In fact, the pair has nearly filled up the bullish gap produced at the opening yesterday and is proceeding toward the immediate support at 112.90.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 112.90 with a target of 113.25.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 112.90, Take Profit: 112.10

Resistance levels: 113.25, 113.65 and 114.00 Support Levels: 112.10, 111.70, 111.35

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Trading plan for 05/12/2017

The AUD and NZD are the strongest on Tuesday with the help of local information. USD cooled the weekend enthusiasm associated with political factors. On other crosses, the movements were moderate. EUR / USD is up to 1.1870, USD / JPY is at 112.60. In the morning, the fresh pressure reaches GBP after yesterday's disappointment with the lack of progress in Brexit negotiations.

On Tuesday 5th of December, the event calendar is quite busy with important economic releases. Germany, Spain, Italy, UK and Japan will release PMI Services and PMI Composite data. Later in the day, the Canada will post Trade Balance data and the US will reveal Trade Balance, PMI Services, PMI Composite and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data. No speeches were scheduled for today.

EUR/USD analysis for 05/12/2017:

Monday's data from overseas gained secondary importance in the investors' opinion. The US session brought confirmation of rumors about the choice of Thomas Barkin, senior manager at McKinsey, for the post of chairman of the Fed branch in Richmond. The US Dollar has not come under the pressure of the above decision, because the market expects Barkin to sustain quite hawkish overtones characteristic of its predecessors. In the shadow of the announcement, there was a solid revision of the October factory orders, accompanied by higher orders for capital goods from outside the defense and air sectors, which give hope for building expectations for more substantial growth in the last quarter. With the current calibration of the newcast model, the market participants expect the US economy to end the year with annualized GDP growth at 3.7%.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has reversed from the technical resistance at the level of 1.1936 and now it looks like it is trying to make a triangle pattern. The key technical support remains at the level of 1.1807 and the bearish outlook is being supported by the weak momentum.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD testing the key support

The price of USD/CAD is trading at the technical support at the level of 1.2662 and any violation of this level would lead to the decline towards the next technical support at the level of 1.2598. Nevertheless, some kind of bounce might be expected here as the market conditions are oversold. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.2731.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY starts to decline?

The price of USD/JPY is having a problem to rally further above the 61% Fibo at the level of 113.24 and due to the overbought market conditions, the price might start to reverse towards the nearest support at the level of 112.32.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 05, 2017

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Our first upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is still expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair holds above its key horizontal support at 0.9815, and is now challenging its nearest resistance at 0.9870. Even though a consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be limited.

To conclude, as long as 0.9815 is not broken, look for a new rise to 0.9900 and 0.9940 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9760, Take Profit: 0.9870

Resistance levels: 0.9870, 0.9900, and 0.9935

Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, and 0.9655

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 05, 2017

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range as it is under pressure. The pair is trading sideways within the range between 152 and 148.60, and is likely to test the lower boundary at first. The relative strength index is mixed to bearish below its neutrality area at 50. Last but not least, the 20-period moving average is turning down, confirming a negative outlook.

To sum up, as long as 152.00 is not surpassed, look for a new pullback to 149.90 and 148.60 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 152.00 with the target at 152.95

Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 152.00, Take Profit: 149.90

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.95, 154.00, and 154.60

Support levels: 149.90, 148.60, and 148

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 05, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair managed to hold above its major support at 0.6860, and is reversing up after having formed an intraday "double bottom" pattern. The upside potential has been opened towards 0.6930, as both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are now below the prices, and should act as strong support roles.

Last but not least, the rising relative strength index calls for further advance to 0.6930 and 0.6945 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.6930, 0.6945, and 0.6985

Support levels: 0.6840, 0.6815, and 0.6770

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for December 5, 2017

The Dollar index has broken out of the bearish channel but remains inside the Kumo. Trend is neutral. Price is mainly moving sideways in the short-term. I expect price to break upwards but traders have to be patient.

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Black lines - bearish channel (broken)

The Dollar index is moving sideways just below the 93.40 short-term resistance. Bulls are trying to push price above the cloud. I believe that eventually bulls will break resistance. Support is at 93 and next at 92.60.

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On a weekly basis price is reversing upwards as expected from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The Dollar index is expected to move higher towards the October highs and challenge them. Most probable scenario for me is to see price move towards the weekly Kumo near 96-97. Important support that bulls must hold is last week's low.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for December 5, 2017

Gold price remains near its recent lows. Trend is bearish as price is below the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud. Gold could bounce towards $1,285 but I expect price to get rejected again if we see this bounce.

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Short-term support is at $1,270 while resistance is at $1,285-87. Trend is bearish. Gold price could be forming a new bearish flag, so a break below $1,270 will be a new bearish sign that will push price towards $1,260 at least.

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On a daily basis trend remains bearish as price is below the Daily Kumo (cloud). Resistance is at $1,283-85. Price is expected to move sharply lower. Our first target is at $1,250. I remain bearish as long as price is below $1,297.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 5, 2017

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Wave summary:

EUR/NZD has broken below support at 1.7210 confirming the expectation of wave c of iv lower to 1.7035 as the first target for wave c. Short-term, minor resistance at 1.7244 ideally will cap the upside for a continuation lower towards 1.7077 and 1.7035 as the next downside targets.

Only a break above resistance at 1.7319 will question the expected downside pressure.

R3: 1.7319

R2: 1.7276

R1: 1.7244

Pivot: 1.7190

S1: 1.7155

S2: 1.7098

S3: 1.7077

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 1.7450. We will move our stop lower to 1.7325. Take profit stays at 1.7050.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 5, 2017

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Wave summary:

Our preferred count remains that wave (D) completed with the test of 134.50 and wave (E) lower towards the ideal target seen at 123.43 now is developing. Short-term, we would like to see more downside pressure and a break below support at 132.90 and more importantly a break below support at 132.62 that calls for a new test of 131.14 and below here confirms that wave (D) has completed and wave (E) is developing.

R3: 134.50

R2: 134.38

R1: 134.05

Pivot: 133.24

S1: 132.90

S2: 132.62

S3: 131.95

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 133.75 with our stop placed at 134.55.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for December 5, 2017

USD/JPY started with a gap this week which is currently being filled by the bears and proceeding towards the support area of 110.80 to 111.70. USD has been struggling recently with the gains ahead of the upcoming NFP and Rate Hike in this month whereas JPY has been quite well with the economic reports. This week JPY Monetary Base report was published as expected at 13.2% from the previous value of 14.5% and Consumer Confidence report showed slightly better figure at 44.9 from the previous figure of 44.5 which was expected to be at 44.8. Today, JPY BOJ Core CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. The positive economic reports do indicate that JPY is going have a better share of the market against USD whereas upcoming USD economic reports may change the course totally. This week NFP, Average Cash Earning and Unemployment Rate reports are going to be published on the USD side which is expected to have a good impact on the pair and growth of JPY against USD. Ahead of the high impact economic reports, today USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 59.2 from the previous figure of 60.1, Trade Balance is expected to have a greater deficit of -46.2B from the previous figure of -43.5B, Final Services PMI report is expected to show an increase to 55.4 from the previous figure of 54.7 and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is also expected to increase to 54.6 from the previous figure of 53.6. As of the current scenario, USD economic reports today are expected to be quite worse than previous figures and values which may affect the gain of USD ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports on Friday but currently JPY is expected to gain further momentum over USD and push the price lower until USD comes up with better than expected economic reports to support its gains over JPY.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently showing some bearish pressure on the way of filling up the bearish gap and progressing towards the support area of 110.80 to 111.70. The price is expected to be quite corrective in nature and expected to push lower as the price resides below 113.00 price area with a daily close.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 05, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Revised GDP q/q, Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and Trade Balance, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1926.

Strong Resistance:1.1919.

Original Resistance: 1.1908.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1897.

Target Inner Area: 1.1869.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1841.

Original Support: 1.1830.

Strong Support: 1.1819.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1812.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 05, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the BOJ Core CPI y/y and 10-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Final Services PMI, and Trade Balance. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 113.03.

Resistance. 2: 113.80.

Resistance. 1: 112.58.

Support. 1: 112.31.

Support. 2: 112.09.

Support. 3: 111.87.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for December 05, 2017

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Technical outlook:

A daily chart view for EURUSD has been presented here to look at a bigger picture with the beginning of December series. At least 2 wave probabilities are coming up for now: Either the pair has completed 5 waves from 1.0350 lows since the beginning of 2017, or it has completed 3 waves to 1.2092 levels. In either scenario, a drop towards at least 1.1700 levels is looking highly probable. As discussed last week, the pair carved out a lower high at 1.1940 levels and reversed sharply. Even now, it is a good strategy to remain short with a soft target of 1.1700 levels going forward. Immediate price resistance is seen at 1.1960 levels, while support is seen around 1.1700 levels respectively. Shall review at 1.1700 levels if positions should be carried still lower or a bullish reversal is on cards.

Trading plan:

Please remain short for now with risk above 1.1960, the target is 1.1700 levels at least.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

On the daily chart view presented here, the US Dollar Index is also offering at least two probable scenarios. The drop from 103.80 levels, since early 2017, has either unfolded into 5 waves or 3 waves. Giving benefit of doubt to both scenarios equally, we are prepared to trade the short/medium term structure. At present, the common point is that there should be a potential rally towards at least 94.20 levels before either reversing lower again or a continued rally. Please note that the Fibonacci co-relations suggest that the drop has unfolded into 3 waves and the current rally through 95.00 levels could be wave 4 of the same degree. Immediate price support is seen at 92.50 levels, while resistance is at 94.20 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Please remain long for now, risk below 92.50 and target 94.20 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite (NOV) at 1000 AM EST

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 05, 2017

The index still consolidates its price action slightly below the 200 SMA at H1 chart. The next resistance ahead of that moving average lies at 93.60, at which a breakout should open the doors for more gains across the board, while to the downside, the critical level of 92.70 should help to keep bears under control.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.60 / 93.98

H1 chart's support levels: 92.70 / 91.85

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.70, take profit is at 91.85 and stop loss is at 93.53.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 05, 2017

There is a rally underway in the GBP/USD pair, after finding support around 1.3437. The next target to the upside should be the resistance zone of 1.3541 ahead of the 1.3612 level. However, we're expecting sideways moves in coming days, but bears should remain capped by the 200 SMA at H1 chart. MACD indicator still supports the bullish idea.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3541 / 1.3612

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3437 / 1.3303

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3541, take profit is at 1.3612 and stop loss is at 1.3466.

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Daily Forex Technical Analysis | 5th December 2017

Today we take a look at USD/CAD as it starts to form a really nice bullish reversal. We can find 3 elements here (Fibonacci retracement, extension, and horizontal support) which lines up nicely for a bounce.

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Pound is selected from the politics

Over the past two weeks, the British pound added 2% versus the US dollar and more than 1% versus the euro, against a background of lower political risks. Popular newspaper, like The Times, reported that London and Brussels managed to agree on the amount of compensation for the divorce, as well as on the issue of the Irish border. It seems like investors are satisfied that Theresa May is paying for a mild Brexit loss of government members. The market will closely follow the phrasing from the table of her talks with Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier, in order to understand whether it is worth selling due to the fact on initial rumors of buying.

Weekly dynamics of the pound

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Source: Bloomberg.

Positive news from Brexit, the problems of promoting tax reform in the United States, as well as the surfaced story of Russia's interference in the US presidential election, helped the GBP/USD pair to rise to a two-month high. The rate of the sterling, weighted by trade, jumped altogether to a peak record in the last six months. At the same time, some people are concerned that Britain's GDP is growing much slower than its US and European counterparts. Investors win back political risk and are ready to turn a blind eye to the long-term pessimistic prospects of the UK economy in order to obtain immediate benefits. Therefore, Credit Agricole believes that the hopes for progress on Brexit will push the GBP/USD pair to 1.4, near which it traded in the first half of 2016.

Commerzbank, on the contrary, is confident that investors are already sold on the factor of positive rhetoric of Brussels at the EU summit in mid-December. If they do not get what they expected, we should prepare for a selling of the sterling. On the other hand, if everything goes according to plan, then it's unlikely that the GBP/USD pair will sharply strengthen. In such circumstances, market attention can shift to macroeconomic data and not related to it, the continuation of the cycle of normalization of the monetary policy of the Bank of England. In this regard, the pound is able to respond sensitively to the release of data on business activity in the services sector, scheduled for December 5. The index of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector has already pleased the fans of sterling. The figures from the largest sector of the economy of the UK is awaited.

The alignment of forces in the analyzed pair will be influenced by events in the United States. The Senate passed a tax reform project with 51 votes to 49, but now both chambers of Congress are required to find a compromise on the timing of its implementation and on other issues. The dollar could not benefit from the "bullish" news, as uncertainty persists. At the same time, the willingness of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn to cooperate with the FBI can cast a shadow on the US president, which will negatively affect the USD index.

Technically, updating the November, and then the autumn peak, activates the AB = CD pattern with a target of 127.2%. It corresponds to 1.385. However, we should not rule out a retest of the upper limit of the range of the previous consolidation of 1.304-1.332.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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Trading plan December 4 - 8, 2017

Trading plan December 4 - 8, 2017

The overall picture shows the market is waiting for news and trends.

As the new week enters, the focus is on the news towards the US economy which includes employment reports on Wednesday and Friday (December 6 and 8), and the business activity report in the services sector for November on Tuesday (ISM non-industrial index).

Earlier, it can be recalled that the Fed decision on rate increase is scheduled next week December 13, amid the background of appointing the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve earlier next year. Hence, there is no reason to expect any sharp movements from the Fed except for the rate hike to a modest + 0.25% and that's it.

In addition, the ECB monetary policy meeting is scheduled on December 14.

On Monday morning, the market opened with a noticeable gap in favor of the dollar. Based on opinions, there were no serious reasons regarding this gap. The euro gap was 30 points down in the 4-digit.

The gap confused traders and the markets are currently driven by direction.

The euro clearly shows the boundaries of the major or upward breakthrough at 1.1940 and 1.1960 and the way to 1.2080 and beyond.

Either way, a breakthrough down to 1.1807 and the way to 1.1610.

GBP / USD:

The pound looks stronger than the euro with an upward direction.

We are buying a pound from the pullback of 1.3340.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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