Today, the focus of the market is the meeting of the ECB on monetary policy (there is a possibility of a limited decline

Global markets continue to balance on the wave of continuing uncertainty regarding Britain's exit from the EU and the result of trade negotiations between the US and China

If the American stock market found some outlet for itself in the form of quarterly corporate reporting, which generally shows that companies are not yet experiencing problems from the US-China trade crisis, then the foreign exchange and commodity markets are completely dependent on Brexit's problems and trade negotiations.

In addition, quotations of gold have simply been driven by these two factors into a very narrow range for the past two weeks. And where they will go, spatially up or down, is not clear, since Brexit's outcome is very vague, and the result of trade negotiations is also unclear until the end. Thus, we expect that this uncertainty will continue at least until the end of this month.

The oil market and other commodities are also in limbo. On the one hand, they receive support on the basis of OPEC + measures aimed at supporting prices, and on the other, the reality of reducing global economic growth, and with it the demand for "black gold", keeps prices sideways.

Due to this, the currency market has become extremely "boring." It practically does not respond to published economic statistics and is under severe pressure from the soft monetary policies of the world's largest Central Banks, primarily the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Central Bank of Japan. In addition, Brexit's negative factors in its uncertainty and trade negotiations between America and China hamper investor activity.

Today, the attention of the market will be drawn to the decision of the ECB on monetary policy, as well as to the last press conference of the President of the Bank M. Draghi as head of the regulator. It is assumed that the key interest rate will remain at the previous zero level and the deposit rate at minus 0.5%. It can be recalled that the bank is also launching a large-scale program to stimulate the European economy, which is supposed to weaken the single currency. However, it is not so simple. If only the ECB carried out these measures then, of course, the euro would have failed and quite noticeably against the major currencies, but the continuation of stimulation by the Fed. The continuation of it by the Bank of England and the Central Bank of Japan, as well as lower interest rates by other central banks that are influential in the world, will offset this effect. Therefore, we do not expect any noticeable exchange rate changes in the market, although local speculative moves will be.

In addition to the ECB meeting, data on orders for durable goods in the United States that will be published today will be interesting. With their negativity, they can exert local pressure on the dollar, but nothing more.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading at the support level of 1.1120. If new unexpected details of incentive measures will appear following the results of the ECB meeting and the press conference of M. Draghi - this may lead to a local decline of the pair to 1.1060.

The USD/CAD pair is consolidating above 1.3070. If oil prices continued to rise, and the pair overcomes this level, there is a high probability of its decline to 1.3015.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on October 24. The pound is waiting for the decision on postponement of the EU,

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Despite the uncertainty that is now observed in the market, buyers of the pound remains a high chance of buying. However, much will depend on the decision of the EU to grant an extension. If a delay of 1-2 weeks is a bullish signal, and a break of resistance of 1.2923 will lead to a larger upward movement to weekly highs of 1.3012 and to their renewal in the area of 1.3074, I recommend taking profit. But if the EU refuses to grant a respite for such a short period, this is a bearish signal. Therefore, in the case of a decline in GBP / USD, it is best to count on purchases after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2842 or after a decline and test of large lows 1.2757 and 1.2664.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The sellers are still satisfied with the current Brexit news, but the EU is required to meet Boris Johnson and approve a short delay of 1-2 weeks. The main task for the first half of the day is to break the support of 1.2842, which will lead to the demolition of a number of stop orders and a further decline in GBP/USD to the area of lows 1.2757 and 1.2664, where I recommend taking profits. At the same time, when forming a false breakdown at 1.2923, you can also count on selling the pound, but do not forget to stop the orders, as any decision by the EU will lead to a sharp increase in volatility. In case of growth above 1.2923, the nearest large levels will be seen around the areas of 1.3074 and 1.3167.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In case of a decline in the pair, a break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2855 will increase pressure on the pound while a break of the upper boundary in the area of 1.2935 will lead to a new upward wave.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 24. The final meeting of Marie Draghi as head of the ECB. The probability

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed due to the lack of important statistics. The European Central Bank meeting will take place today, at which Mario Draghi will announce his retirement and, quite possibly, will signal a further easing of monetary policy. The whole emphasis in the first half of the day will be at the level of 1.1116, the formation of a false breakout will be an additional signal for opening long positions. However, the main task of the bulls will be the resistance test at 1.1147, as well as consolidation on it, which will resume demand for EUR/USD and lead to a weekly high of 1.1178, and to update it in the area of 1.1226, where I recommend profit taking. However, this would be almost impossible without good Brexit news. In case the pair returns to a support of 1.1116, against the background of Mario Draghi's comments, it is best to return to long positions from the lows of 1.1090 and 1.1055.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Pressure on the euro will remain as long as trading is below the resistance of1.1147. The formation of a false breakout in this range in the first half of the day will be a direct signal to open short positions with the main goal of breaking through and consolidating below the support of 1.1116. If the bears manage to break below this range, most likely, the demolition of a number of bull stop orders will bring EUR/USD to a new support of 1.1090 and 1.1055, where I recommend profit taking. In a growth scenario above the resistance of 1.1147, which can be realized only in case of good news regarding the Brexit deal, it is best to return to short positions only after updating the weekly high near 1.1178, or immediately to rebound from resistance of 1.1226.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In case the euro grows in the morning, a breakthrough of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1147 will strengthen demand. A break of the lower boundary at 1.1116 will put new pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 10/24/2019 and trading recommendation

The same day has come that is designed to dispel the boredom of the last days. All the attention of investors today has shifted to the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank on monetary policy. Although it is not the meeting itself that matters, but the subsequent press conference of the head of the European Central Bank. Moreover, this is a farewell meeting for Mario Draghi, after which he transfers his power to Christine Lagarde. It is quite obvious that according to the results of today's meeting, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank will not undergo any changes. However, Mario Draghi's farewell speech is of great interest, and even concern. It is clear that after they have reduced the deposit rate, the next step should be to lower the refinancing rate. But the question is, it is completely incomprehensible when exactly this will happen. So, if in his farewell, Mario Draghi expresses concern about the state and dynamics of the European economy, there will be no doubt that Christine Lagarde will lower the refinancing rate to negative values, right before Christmas. and no need to say how it will affect the single European currency. However, if Mario Draghi manages to make a long and lengthy speech, completely devoid of any practical meaning, then the single European currency can still hold its ground. Perhaps even slightly raise it.

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The EUR/USD pair colorfully fulfilling the mirror resistance level of 1.1180 went to the area of 1.1100, where a level that was quite important for the market had previously passed. The subsequent fluctuation in the form of a local rebound was expressed more on the general ambiguity than on the background of working off the level of 1.1100, since the general market overbought is still preserved on the market. In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see an attempt to restore the main course, relatively elongated correction, but so far to no avail. In turn, the almost vertical movement continues to focus on the peaks of the oblong correction, and the emotional component of market participants plays an integral role here.

It is likely to assume that the initial fluctuation with respect to the values of 1.1105/1.1145 may remain for some time, where it is worth analyzing not only boundaries, but also the information background for harsh statements by the head of the ECB. In the event of a peaceful background of information, the horizontal oscillation may be delayed, with a slight shift of the existing boundaries.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of a clear consolidation of the price higher than 1.1145.

- Short positions, we consider in case of a clear consolidation of the price lower than 1.1105-1.1100.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the minute and hour periods are still in the recovery phase, signaling sales, where the indicators can rightfully change due to accumulation. Daily periods remain committed to the inertia, signaling purchases.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 24/10/2019

Technical Market Overview:

After the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern was made around the top at the level of 1.1179, the EUR/USD pair has reversed. The bears have managed to push the price back to the ascending channel but bounced from the technical support located at the level of 1.1109. The momentum is now neutral, but there is still a chance for another leg up after the correction is completed. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1109 and the key technical support is still located at the level of 1.1091.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1435

WR2 - 1.1300

WR1 - 1.1250

Weekly Pivot - 1.1120

WS1 - 1.1063

WS2 - 1.0981

WS3 - 1.0893

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for October 24, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair dropped close to 1.1100 yesterday, as it was discussed and expected. Please note that it has found support right at the fibonacci 0.382 retracement of the recent upswing between 1.1000 and 1.1180 levels respectively. It is quite possible that the recent corrective drop is now complete and that EUR/USD bulls are expected to remain in control going forward from here. The current price is at 1.1130 levels at this point in writing and is expected to push higher towards 1.1250 levels as an upward target the next resistance. On the flip side, if this correction is not over, prices may dip towards 1.1085 or 1.1060 levels before turning bullish again. In either case, it is a safe trading strategy to buy on dips, with risk just below 1.0879 and a potential target towards 1.1250 respectively. Please note that major support remains at 1.0879, while immediate resistance is at 1.1250 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, target 1.1250 and 1.1450.

Good luck!

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Analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for October 24. News parade after a three-day lull.

EUR / USD

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Wednesday, October 23, ended for the EUR / USD pair with an increase of only a few basis points. However, this is clearly not enough to consider the completion of the correction wave b. Most likely, this wave will take a clearly expressed 3-waveform. Thus, another impulse down can be expected. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level will show the willingness of the currency market to buy the instrument. In addition, the news background of today can even make adjustments to the entire wave markup of the euro-dollar instrument.

Fundamental component:

The news background for the EUR / USD pair remained absent for the last 4 days. However, everything will change today, since the index of business activity in the services and production sectors will be released in the European Union. The same indices will also be released after lunch in America. In addition, the change in the volume of orders for durable goods in America and the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank will become known. The "cherry on the cake" will be the speech by Mario Draghi, who will leave the post of ECB chairman on October 31 after 8 years of rule. Thus, one can expect anything from his speech. Perhaps, this will be a "farewell" speech, and Draghi will possibly remain a professional until the end and will cover only moments related to the EU economy, monetary policy and prospects. In any case, Thursday promises to be very interesting.

Purchase goals:

1.1208 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.1286 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales goals:

1.0879 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The euro-dollar pair continues to build a new upward set of waves and supposedly completed the construction of wave a, despite a successful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, breaking through the level of 50.0% in the opposite direction indicated the readiness of the instrument to build wave b, which in theory, should turn out to be more extended than now. Thus, I recommend buying the instrument after the completion of the wave b.

GBP / USD

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On October 23, the GBP / USD pair gained about 50 basis points. However, the estimated wave 3 or C is still determined to be completed now. If this is true, then the decline in the quotes of the pound-dollar instrument will resume with targets located at around 27th figure, at least. A successful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are now ready for new purchases of the pound sterling, but this, as in the case of the euro, can be prevented by the news background.

Fundamental component:

All the favorability and positivity of the news background for the British pound now only lies in the fact that the tough Brexit is moving away from the near future. Due to this, the British currency has no more special reasons to increase. The current growth of the instrument is very similar to speculative, after which an equally strong decline will follow. Brexit can be said to have already been ported. EU leaders, in turn, have approved the postponement of Brexit, despite Boris Johnson's convincing arguments about the inappropriateness of such actions and their negative reflection on the EU and Britain. Nevertheless, the issue still rests on the approval of the transaction by the British Parliament, which we may not see in principle. If this option is not destined to come true, then early re-election to the Parliament may be held, Labor will try to hold a second referendum, and Boris Johnson himself may be cast a vote of no confidence. The range of possible scenarios is huge and most of which is not positive for the UK currency.

Sales goals:

1.2191 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.2986 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3202 - 161.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound / dollar instrument supposedly completed the construction of the upward trend section. An unsuccessful attempt to break the level of 1.2986 indicates that the instrument is ready to decline. Thus, only a successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2986 can be regarded as a completion of the alleged wave 3 or C and become the basis for new purchases of the instrument.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 24, 2019 for the GBP/ USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the price will move up, with the target of 1.3013 - the upper fractal (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the price may continue to move up.

The first upper target of 1.3013 is the upper fractal (blue dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement to a pullback level of 233.6% - 1.2820 (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on October 24, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, the market may try to break through the upper fractal - 1.1181 (red dashed line). However, everything will depend on the release of news on interest rates and a press conference.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, an upward movement is possible.

The first upper target of 1.1181 is the upper fractal (red dashed line).

An unlikely scenario is a downward movement with the target of 1.1066 - a pullback level of 38.2% (red dashed line).

Today, the main driver of the market will be the news that comes out at 11.45 and 12.30 Universal time (Euro).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for October 24 - 2019

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We are looking for more downside pressure towards strong support near 135.67. Therefore, we continue to look for more short-term downside pressure as the correction from 141.51 becomes more complex and ultimately dips lower towards our ideal target.

We also need to stress that corrections during a third wave often become smaller than normal. The underlying trend will be upward. A break above minor resistance at 141.12 will indicate that the third wave is growing and the next rally towards 144.98 is developing.

R3: 141.51

R2: 141.12

R1: 140.63

Pivot: 141.15

S1: 139.75

S2: 139.07

S3: 138.60

Trading recommendation:

We will buy GBP at 135.75 or upon a break above 141.12

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 24 - 2019

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We think that the corrective dip to 120.36 only was the first part of a slightly more complicated correction that ultimately will bring EUR/JPY down to 119.87. This dip will complete red wave ii and set the stage for the next impulsive rally towards 124.64 which is the next minor upside target.

In the long- term, we are looking for much higher levels with the next serious resistance seen near 129.50.

R3: 121.47

R2: 121.30

R1: 121.07

Pivot: 120.80

S1: 120.64

S2: 120.25

S3: 119.87

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.00

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, October 24, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic reports will be released such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, Monetary Policy Statement, Main Refinancing Rate, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and Spanish Unemployment Rate. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, New Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1187. Strong Resistance: 1.1181. Original Resistance: 1.1170. Inner Sell Area: 1.1159. Target Inner Area: 1.1133. Inner Buy Area: 1.1107. Original Support: 1.1096. Strong Support: 1.1085. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1079. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, October 24, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Flash Manufacturing PMI and the US will also publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, New Home Sales, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods Orders m/m, and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 109.18. Resistance. 2: 108.97. Resistance. 1: 108.75. Support. 1: 108.49. Support. 2: 108.28. Support. 3: 108.06. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on October 24, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro stayed on the blue downward price channel all day, awaiting today's ECB meeting, which is the last for Mario Draghi. We believe that the meeting will be neutral, as all the preparatory work for Mario's successor has already been completed. The general mood of the markets in this regard is positive. October European PMIs will be published earlier in the day. The forecast is optimistic for them: business activity in the manufacturing sector is expected to grow from 45.7 to 46.1, in the services sector, the index is expected to grow from 51.6 to 51.9. In the US, on the contrary, economic indicators are expected to deteriorate: orders for durable goods in September are projected to be -0.5% versus 0.2% in August, sales of new homes in September are expected to decrease from 713 thousand to 710 thousand. US Manufacturing October PMI may drop from 51.1 to 50.7. Services PMI may grow, but not significantly: forecast 51.0 versus 50.9 earlier.

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The immediate goal on the daily chart for the euro is the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155, consolidation above the level may extend the growth to the level of 100.0% at the price of 1.1215. Consolidating yesterday's low with negative macroeconomic indicators will open the immediate target of 1.1073, after which the euro will gather strength to attack 1.1025 (MACD line).

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On the four-hour chart yesterday's low (1.1106) corresponds to the support of the MACD indicator line. Consolidation under it will raise the downward pressure in the role of a new trend. The 1.1106/55 range is the consolidation zone for the euro in the current situation.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on October 24,2019

GBP/USD

The British pound grew by 42 points yesterday amid a neutral external background - the EU was considering a request to postpone the Brexit date, the dollar index slightly fell (-0.05%). The drivers were oil (2.93%) and gold (0.30%). There was optimism in the stock markets: Britain's FTSE100 at 0.67%, the US S&P 500 by 0.28%.

If the EU approves the postponement of Brexit, and if Boris Johnson does not back down, re-elections will be held in the UK, and this is not good for the pound. If the request is not approved (which is almost unbelievable), then the pound will face a deeper and longer fall.

The signal level to fall to the nearest bearish target at 1.2744 is the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.2814. Consolidation below it opens the way to movement to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2548.

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Formally, the pound has not yet exhausted its potential for growth. Although, there was a large-scale closing of positions on Tuesday while yesterday's growth was at volumes above average. New optimistic events may raise the pound to 1.3062, to the Fibonacci level of 61.8%. Here, divergence will form on the Marlin oscillator and the pound will have only one way to go, down.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the balance line, the Marlin oscillator in a falling position - in the zone of negative numbers. Departure of the price below the MACD line (1.2814) will be the first signal for a further decline, and consolidation under 1.2744 opens the prospect of 1.2548.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on October 24, 2019

USD/JPY

The technical situation of the last seven days for the USD/JPY pair is characterized by consolidation under the resistance of the trend line of the price channel. This is a sign of a subsequent price growth. The signal here is the price exit above a given resistance (108.88). The target of growth will be the line of the growing green price channel at 109.75.

Divergence on the Marlin oscillator is hindering the development of a positive scenario. It will not be broken before the price consolidates above the line of the price channel (108.88).

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On a four-hour chart, the price is developing above the MACD line, yesterday's departure of the price for it is now formalized as false, which raises the chances of a breakthrough of 108.88. The Marlin oscillator is trying to gain a foothold in the growth zone.

If the divergence of the higher scale is stronger, the price will fall to support at around 108.00 of the daily chart.

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EUR/USD bouncing off nicely off first support, potential for further upside!

Entry: 1.11079

Why is it good: Horizontal pullback support, 23.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.10626

Why is it good: Horizontal pullback support, 38.2% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11671

Why is it good: horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for October 24

Forecast for October 24:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1223, 1.1181, 1.1158, 1.1140, 1.1103, 1.1083, 1.1068 and 1.1049. Here, the price forms a pronounced structure for the downward movement of October 21. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1103. In this case, the target is 1.1083. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1083 - 1.1068. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1049. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 1.1140 - 1.1158. The breakdown of the latter value will have the subsequent development of an upward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.1181. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1223. The movement to which is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1181.

The main trend is the formation of the downward structure of October 21.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1140 Take profit: 1.1156

Buy: 1.1160 Take profit: 1.1180

Sell: 1.1103 Take profit: 1.1083

Sell: 1.1068 Take profit: 1.1050

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3215, 1.3141, 1.3033, 1.2939, 1.2810, 1.2734 and 1.2625. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 9. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3035. Here, the potential target is 1.3141. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3141 - 1.3215.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2877 - 1.2810. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2715. This level is a key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of potential for the downward cycle. Here, the target is 1.2625.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3035 Take profit: 1.3140

Buy: 1.3143 Take profit: 1.3215

Sell: 1.2877 Take profit: 1.2813

Sell: 1.2808 Take profit: 1.2717

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9963, 0.9943, 0.9929, 0.9909, 0.9887, 0.9871, 0.9853 and 0.9838. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of October 18. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9909. In this case, the target is 0.9929. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.9929 - 0.9943. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level 0.9963. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9877 - 0.9863. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9850. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will allow you to count on movement to the level of 0.9822.

The main trend is capacity building for the top of October 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9912 Take profit: 0.9929

Buy : 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9943

Sell: 0.9887 Take profit: 0.9872

Sell: 0.9869 Take profit: 0.9855

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.66, 109.33, 108.90, 108.72, 108.24, 108.02 and 107.67. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 4. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 108.72 - 108.90. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 109.33. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 109.66. Upon reaching this level, we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.24 - 108.02. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 107.67. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend: the upward cycle of October 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.90 Take profit: 109.30

Buy : 109.34 Take profit: 109.65

Sell: 108.24 Take profit: 108.03

Sell: 108.00 Take profit: 107.70

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3160, 1.3128, 1.3101, 1.3073, 1.3036 and 1.2989. Here, we consider the descending structure of October 10 as a medium-term initial condition. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3073. In this case, the target is 1.3036. Price consolidation is near this level. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2989. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3101 - 1.3128. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3160. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3101 Take profit: 1.3126

Buy : 1.3130 Take profit: 1.3160

Sell: 1.3073 Take profit: 1.3038

Sell: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3000

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6933, 0.6901, 0.6886, 0.6854, 0.6838, 0.6820 and 0.6805. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 16. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6886 - 0.6901. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of pronounced movement to a potential target - 0.6933. From this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6854 - 0.6838. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.6820. The range of 0.6820 - 0.6805 is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6887 Take profit: 0.6900

Buy: 0.6904 Take profit: 0.6930

Sell : 0.6854 Take profit : 0.6840

Sell: 0.6836 Take profit: 0.6820

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.95, 121.79, 121.34, 121.03, 120.61, 120.28, 119.92 and 119.64. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure of October 15. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 121.03 - 121.34. The breakdown of the level of 121.35 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 121.79. Price consolidation is in the range of 121.79 - 121.95. From here, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 120.61 - 120.28. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.92. This level is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first goal - 119.64.

The main trend is the upward structure of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 121.05 Take profit: 121.34

Buy: 121.36 Take profit: 121.76

Sell: 120.60 Take profit: 120.33

Sell: 120.25 Take profit: 119.94

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.82, 140.89, 139.53, 138.70, 137.79 and 137.08. Here, we are following the development of the upward cycle of October 8. The continuation of movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 140.90. In this case, the potential target is 142.82. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 139.53 - 138.70. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 137.79. The range of 137.79 - 137.08 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the medium-term upward structure of October 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 141.25 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.50 Take profit: 138.75

Sell: 138.65 Take profit: 137.80

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY (H4). Comprehensive analysis of movement options from October 24, 2019 APLs

The Brexit vote took place ... What's next? - Comprehensive analysis of movement options - #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY (H4) from October 24, 2019.

Minuette (H4 time frame)

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US dollar Index

Starting from October 24, 2019, the movement of the dollar index #USDX will continue in the equilibrium zone (98.05 - 97.70 - 97.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The details are shown in the graph.

Consecutive breakdown of support levels :

- 97.30(lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

- 97.20 (start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork);

- 97.15 (local minimum);

- 97.00 (control line LTL Minuette);

will determine the continuation of the downward movement of the dollar index to the warning lines - LWL38.2 (96.70) and LWL61.8 (96.35) - of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In the event of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 98.05) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the movement #USDX will become relevant to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.25 - 98.60 - 98.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork and 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (98.85 - 99.10 - 99.30).

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the chart.

analytics5db07f1c3640e.jpg

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Euro vs US dollar

The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from October 24, 2019 will also be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1180 - 1.1125 - 1.1075) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The markup of the development of the above levels is shown in the animated chart.

Combined breakdown of resistance levels :

- 1.1180 (the upper boundary of ISL61.8 is the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);

- 1.1188 (control line UTL Minuette operational scale fork);

will make it possible to continue the development of the upward movement of the single European currency towards the goals - warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (1.1235) - local maximum 1.1250 - warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (1.1275).

The breakdown of the lower boundary ISL38.2 (support level of 1.1075) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - continuation of the downward movement of EUR / USD to the targets - the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.1055) - equilibrium zone (1.1030 - 1.0990 - 1.0945) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the movement of EUR / USD are shown in the chart.

analytics5db07f5185e6d.jpg

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Similarly to other currencies, Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency will begin to develop movement from October 24, 2019 depending on the development and the breakdown direction of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.2935 (final Schiff Line of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level of 1.2840 (reaction line RL23.6 of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (resistance level of 1.2935) - the option of resuming the upward movement of GBP / USD whose goals will be - the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (1.3012 - local maximum) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - control line UTL Minuette (1.3060) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (1.3170) and UWL61.8 (1.3265) - Minuette operational scale fork.

Combined breakdown of support levels :

- 1.2840 (reaction line RL23.6 of the Minuette operational scale fork);

- 1.2820 (Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork).

A variant of the development of the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2705 - 1.2610 - 1.2520) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the chart.

analytics5db07f922f4b9.jpg

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

As per the currency of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from October 24, 2019, it will begin to develop its movement depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 108.55 (starting line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork);
  • support level 108.45 (upper boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork).

The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 108.45) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (108.30 - 108.10 - 108.10) with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of ISL 38.2 (107.45) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork and the upper boundary of ISL 38.2 (107.10) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, the breakdown of the SSL start line (resistance level of 108.55) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make the development of the upward movement of USD / JPY to the targets relevant - local maximum 108.95- control line UTL Minuette (109.15) - warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (109.50).

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the chart.

analytics5db07fb866553.jpg

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where power factors correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Canadian dollar could go uphill

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The Canadian currency has not been very pleasing to market participants recently. Periodic subsidence of the loonie confused investors and contributed to the fading of their interest. However, now the situation may change, experts said.

Experts draw attention to the formation of bullish trends in relation to the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency almost did not respond to the election results in the country, but actively responded to the actions of buyers. Interest in the loonie has sharply grown since the release of strong economic data, but then faded away amid weak retail sales in the country.

In this situation, option traders, who are confident in the growth of the Canadian dollar, have become more active. They were not frightened by the fact that the loonie has been in a downward trend for a long time. The USD/CAD pair was trading at 1.3099–1.3100 on Wednesday morning, October 23. The market perked up and began to predict further growth of the pair

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However, the situation began to unfold in a different direction. After testing the key level of 1.3200, the USD/CAD pair weakened. Recall that the Canadian dollar survived a two-week rally, which raised it to an impressive height. At the moment, the USD/CAD pair has fulfilled the growth impulse and completed the correction, analysts emphasize. They allow the rise of the loonie to 1.3180 with further correction to the level of 1.3127. Now the pair is trading in the range of 1.3095–1.3096, slightly sifting after the morning increase.

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Analysts recommend opening short positions on the Canadian dollar. They emphasize that this will be the so-called "trade against the crowd", as many traders are in long positions. They do not exclude that those who were not afraid to go against the tide by betting on short positions on the USD/CAD pair will benefit.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD / CAD: Sellers in business

Good evening, dear traders. Today, there is a small recommendation on USD / CAD, and the decline of which is now very likely.

The thing is that yesterday's news from Canada caused a great reaction from the market, and in the end, we see that all the news impulses from the buyer were completely absorbed, and this is a harbinger of even a local, but decline.

Therefore, today, I recommend trying to work on the decline of USD / CAD currency pair with a take profit at around 1.3070. Moreover, the maximum point of yesterday's loss will be considered to be the maximum of yesterday's news - the level of 1.3121. If the price updates the maximum, the scenario can be considered completely canceled.

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I wish you success in trading and huge profits!

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EUR/USD: Super Thursday for the euro and the last ECB meeting for Super Mario

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Amid uncertainty around Brexit (as well as in anticipation of the next ECB meeting and the release of data on business activity in the eurozone in October), the EUR/USD pair is falling for the third consecutive day, encountering resistance near the 1.1170 mark.

The British Parliament rejected the proposals of the government, designed to expedite the adoption of a "divorce" agreement with the European Union. However, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson does not give up. He threatens Parliament with holding early elections, which would allow Conservatives to strengthen their positions and adopt the document without any problems. However, the Labour Party also has a chance to win, and in such a scenario all the efforts of the prime minister could be wasted.

The growth of political risks in the eurozone made it possible for bears on EUR/USD to move quotes to 1.11.

The growth of political risks in the eurozone allowed the EUR/USD bears to move quotes to 1.11.

Meanwhile, the economic situation in the EU still leaves much to be desired.

The European industry is currently experiencing the biggest problems. According to the latest data, industrial production in the eurozone in August fell by 2.8% in annual terms. At the same time, the economic prospects of the currency bloc are only getting worse, including due to trade wars.

Along with the unresolved issue of Brexit, the euro is under pressure because of the approaching deadline for US President Donald Trump to make a decision on tariffs on European cars. In May, the head of the White House set a six-month delay, but in November he must announce whether he will impose duties or not.

Data on European PMI indices for October will be published tomorrow, which according to preliminary estimates should show growth, but forecasts may not be justified, which will have a negative impact on the euro.

In addition, on Thursday, the ECB will hold a regular meeting on monetary policy, which will be the last for Mario Draghi as president of the central bank.

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After the European regulator announced a new package of incentive measures in September, including a reduction in interest rates and a decision to restart the purchase of assets, now no one expects loud statements.

At the same time, there has been deep disagreement among the ECB Governing Council over the resumption of the quantitative easing (QE) program. This means that the last meeting of M. Draghi can become quite sharp.

Five key issues that may interest markets.

1. Will the ECB do something this week?

Given the fact that on September 12, the financial institute announced a large-scale incentive program, it is unlikely that this week it will take any additional measures.

Experts suggest that the upcoming meeting may raise technical issues regarding the resumption of the quantitative easing (QE) program and rate changes.

Issues regarding the impact of recent measures on the European economy may also be addressed. Low inflation expectations and concern that the regulator is running out of opportunities to stimulate it are taken into account.

The latter package of measures is unlikely to raise inflation in the eurozone to the target level, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. In their opinion, the risk of a recession in the region over the past two years has grown significantly.

2. Inside the ECB there is a deep division of opinions. What does this mean for politics?

An unprecedented split within the Governing Council threatens the ECB's monetary rate. More than a third of politicians, including the heads of the central banks of France and Germany, opposed the new asset purchase program.

For markets, such a split has become a sign that the ECB's capabilities are limited.

3. Will there be more detailed information about the new QE program?

The ECB will restart the purchase of assets in November, for which €20 billion will be allocated monthly.

Most likely, Draghi will mention this on Thursday, as the current scheme is similar to the previous round of measures, in which government bonds made up the bulk of purchases.

As two Reuters sources said, the ECB will do everything possible to ensure that the QE program lasts as long as possible.

4. Will the ECB clarify its rate plans?

Following the September meeting, the ECB lowered the deposit rate to -0.5% in order to protect the eurozone from recession.

Many economists believe that in December the regulator will again reduce the rate, but markets do not expect even a slight decrease until 2020.

If the ECB meeting on Thursday, Draghi will signal a readiness for an additional reduction of the rate by 0.1% later this year, then under such a scenario, the prospect of further easing of monetary policy will come into effect against the euro.

5. What will Draghi say at the end of his term as head of the ECB?

Earlier, the president of the ECB, under whose management the financial institution survived the eurozone debt crisis and launched QE, called on EU member states to use fiscal policy to stimulate the long-term growth of the European economy.

The same appeal may be made at the press conference of Draghi on Thursday. It is possible that the outgoing head of the ECB will want to complete his term on a more positive note.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Australian dollar stalled

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The Australian currency may stop in its movement following a short growth, analysts said. They record a slowdown in the upward trend of the aussie.

Analysts consider the reason for the previous rise in the Australian dollar to be an increase in risk appetite from investors. Thanks to this, many commodity currencies, such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, were able to grow.

The external background at the moment is far from stability: passions around Brexit are heating up, and the further trade truce between the US and China is also in doubt. Investors who expect to sign a comprehensive trade agreement between the two powers may be disappointed. The obstacle is a number of unresolved disagreements on issues such as protecting intellectual property and subsidizing agricultural producers in China. The United States is also in no hurry to cancel or reduce tariffs on Chinese goods worth $360 billion. Experts consider the measures taken by the parties earlier as insufficient in easing tensions and boosting the global economy. The current situation negatively affects the growth of commodity currencies, primarily the Australian dollar.

The AUD/USD pair is supported by a number of positive macroeconomic data from Australia last week. A slight strengthening of the aussie contributes to the weakening of the American currency. According to statistics, last month the unemployment rate in the country fell to 5.2% from 5.3% marked in August, and the indicator of consumer confidence increased by 0.6%. At the same time, experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worsened the outlook for the Australian economy. This caused concern among investors, who counted on further growth of the Australian currency.

Many economists expect Australia's labor market to sag and core inflation to come soon. They believe that in the event of such a development, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will respond by lowering rates to 0.25% at the beginning of next year, as well as by launching a quantitative easing (QE) program.

Over the past three weeks, the AUD/USD pair has shown moderate growth. According to experts, the pair is now in a long-term downward trend. On Tuesday, October 22, the AUD/USD pair was trading in the zone below the key resistance level of 0.6950. On Wednesday morning, October 23, the pair fell to the levels of 0.6843-0.6844.

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According to analysts, the AUD/USD pair performed the first wave of decline to the level of 0.6837 today. They admit the possibility of correction to the level of 0.6855, and subsequently - subsidence to 0.6811.

A further target for the AUD/USD pair is at the support levels of 0.6260 and 0.6000, which are the lows of 2008-2009. Currently, the pair is trading within 0.6841–0.6842, demonstrating a tendency to stagnation. The pair is in no hurry to leave the current price range, and this drop complicates further forecasts on the dynamics of the aussie, analysts said.

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