Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 22/08/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Stablecoin operator Tether plans to release stablecoin supported by a Chinese yuan, according to local industry media.

Bitfinex shareholder Zhao Dong informed the market that Tether - the operator behind the leading USDT stablecoin - plans to release a new stablecoin in the near future. He would be supported by a Chinese yuan kept on foreign accounts under the name CNHT.

Zhao also reportedly said his digital asset management platform, RenrenBit, would be the first to invest in the project. He also pointed out that Tether and Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange are interrelated and that they have the same management team.

The relationship between Bitfinex and Tether sparked suspicion after an attorney general's office in New York filed a complaint against iFinex, Bitfinex and Tether in April. Prosecutors said companies deceived New York investors by concealing a $ 850 million loss on the Bitfinex trading platform.

Bitfinex and Tether responded to the recent ruling of Judge Joel Cohen in a case pending against companies, maintaining that the allegations are unfounded.

Technical Market Overview:

The bears at the ETH/USD market have pushed the prices lower towards the level of technical support at $183.00 as the price has fallen out of the channel and is trading around the level of $183.00. The next technical support is located at the level of $176.99 and might be tested soon as there are no signs of increased bullish activity. The nearest technical resistance is now located at the level of $190.94.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $257.46

WR2 - $236.43

WR1 - $213.67

Weekly Pivot - $193.41

WS1 - $171.74

WS2 - $150.23

WS3 - $128.88

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 22/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The Central Bank of India received an order from the Supreme Court of the country in relation to his proceeding regarding a ban on conducting activities related to cryptocurrencies and ordered him to consider complaints.

During a recent session of the ongoing hearing on the activities of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on August 21, the court ruled that officials did not adequately respond to cryptocurrency industry concerns about its activities.

RBI banned banks from supporting cryptographic operators, such as stock exchanges, in July 2018 - effectively stopping such platforms from continuing to operate in India. Today there has been harsh criticism from Supreme Court judge Rohinton Wave Nariman. As Crypto Kanoon, who was present at the trial, summed up on Twitter, Nariman gave RBI just two weeks to justify his actions.

Discussing the final result of the interrogation that has already ended, Crypto Kanoon concluded:

"The case took the most unpredictable turn. Judge Nariman orders the RBI to respond to representation in an appropriate manner. I offer to postpone the case for 2 weeks, as I heard, let the answer come after the RBI has reconsidered the ban. RBI agreed "- we read.

The case arises at the same time as the Indian government is considering making cryptocurrencies illegal for all citizens. In July, a government committee recommended the Delhi movement to ban all tokens except the official digital version of the rupee. Then the expert estimated that the country, if it signed the ban, would lose a market worth about 13 billion dollars.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has moved towards the lower channel boundary located at the level of $8,700. So far the bulls are defending this level, but any breakout lower will be a clear signal that the downside momentum is accelerating. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of $9,912 and $9,676. Still, the larger timeframe trend remains up, but to regain control over the market, the bulls have to break through the 50% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of $10,840.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,461

WR2 - $12,432

WR1 - $11,161

Weekly Pivot - $10,133

WS1 - $9,200

WS2 - $8,268

WS3 - $7,027

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,049 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on August 22, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar has been trading in a narrow range for the past four days, considering the general market sentiment. On the daily chart, the central line of this range coincides with the correction level of 23.6%. The Marlin oscillator has been growing all this time and two options have ripened here: very soon the marlin signal line will go into the growth zone (above zero) and the price will reach strong resistance near 0.6870, where many technical lines converge. Another scenario, the oscillator will stop rising and get ready to decrease from current values.

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On a four-hour chart, the price under the indicator line of balance as the Marlin entered the zone of declining trends. To develop a downward movement, the price needs to gain a foothold below the MACD line found below the 0.6750 mark. The first goal will be a nested line of the price channel on a monthly scale in the region of 0.6720. Overcoming it will open the next target to the line of the blue price channel at 0.6657on the daily scale.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 22/08/2019

The GBP/USD pair has tested the technical resistance level for the second time in the last few days, but failed to break through it. If bulls eventually break through this level, then the next target for them is located at the level of 1.2209 and then at 1.2248. The positive and strong momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook towards these levels.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2378

WR2 - 1.2273

WR1 - 1.2217

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.2114

WS1 - 1.2060

WS2 - 1.1953

WS3 - 1.1902

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 22/08/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading in a narrow horizontal range, but a new local low was made at the level of 1.1065. Nevertheless, it did not help the bears to push the prices lower. The next technical support is located at the level of 1.1034-1.1027 and breakout below this level opens the road towards the level of 1.0950. The bulls should now defend this zone, but it does not look like they will as the bears have full control over the market. The market conditions are now extremely oversold and the momentum remains weak and negative. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1330

WR2 - 1.1278

WR1 - 1.1161

Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1117

WS1 - 1.1003

WS2 - 1.0951

WS3 - 1.0838

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is treminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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USD/SEK approaching support, potential bounce!

USDSEK is approaching our first support where we are seeing a bounce above this level.

Entry: 9.5822

Why it's good : Horizontal pullback support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, short term ascending support line

Stop Loss : 9.51216

Why it's good : horizontal swing low support

Take Profit : 9.7366

Why it's good: Horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

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AUD/USD close to ascending trendline support

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Price drifted lower and is close to ascending trendline support where a bounce reaction is expected.

Entry: 0.67690

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support and ascending trendline support.

Stop Loss : 0.67600

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.68220

Why it's good: 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on August 22. Fed minutes have not made changes to the market, and now the emphasis

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve did not change the balance of power between buyers and sellers, since they did not differ from the statements made immediately after the decision to lower the interest rate in the United States. From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. Buyers failed to cope with resistance of 1.1105 yesterday. A breakthrough of this level will increase demand for the euro and lead to the renewal of a larger high of 1.1130, where I recommend taking profits. However, the main target of the bulls is the 1.1159 area, which will allow us to build a new upward trend in the euro. In case EUR/USD falls in the morning, after a series of weak reports on activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone, it is best to return to long positions on a breakdown from a low of 1.1068, or a rebound from a new support of 1.1028.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, all emphasis will be shifted to data on activity in the manufacturing sector of the eurozone countries, which in recent months is experiencing very serious problems. Weak data will allow the bears to build a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1105, which will lead to an update of last week's low of 1.1068, as well as to its probable breakdown. A further target for sellers will be support levels 1.1028 and 1.0990, where I recommend taking profits. If production activity shows the first signs of recovery, demand for the euro may return. In the EUR/USD growth scenario above the resistance of 1.1105, it is best to open short positions by rebounding from highs of 1.1130 and 1.1159.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1082 will strengthen the bearish trend, and a break of the upper in the area of 1.1105 will lead to an upward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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USD/JPY approaching resistance, further drop!

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USDJPY is approaching 1st resistance at 106.77, potential drop could occur!

Entry :106.77

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance

61.8% Fibonacci extension

38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 106.12

Why it's good :38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal swing low support

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GBP/USD. August 21st. Results of the day. Emmanuel Macron also rejected the proposal of Boris Johnson

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 56p - 100p - 100p - 68p - 116p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 88p (76p).

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has recently received more attention than the odious Donald Trump, made his first visit to the European Union, France. The purpose of the visit was to negotiate with President Emaanuel Macron on the terms of the Brexit deal, or rather, the "back-stop" clause that Johnson wants to cancel. Earlier, the first attempt to convince Brussels had already failed: the President of the European Council Donald Tusk rejected Johnson's proposal to reconsider the agreement. It became known that Macron did not support Boris Johnson's initiative to cancel the "backstop". Therefore, Johnson will now meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the hope that the UK prime minister will find support in Berlin is even less. Actually, nothing surprising has happened. We have already noted more than once that Johnson's actions very often resemble actions with the goal of creating a certain appearance. Apparently, the prime minister is trying hard to revise the agreement with the EU in order to avoid a hard scenario for leaving the EU. What for? In order to convince Parliament to vote "for" the "hard" Brexit. The reasons in this case will be simple: the EU refused to revise the agreement. The same thing is in the eyes of the British population: Johnson tried to negotiate with the EU, but the Europeans refused. That's it, Boris Johnson did everything he could. In fact, Johnson did not offer the European Union anything on the basis of which the "deal" could be reconsidered. That is, nothing at all. The British prime minister simply hoped that the EU leaders would agree to revise the agreement from "out of the blue", which had been worked on for about 2 years. Naturally, he was refused.

Based on the foregoing, we do not expect Johnson's visit to the EU to end with something encouraging for Brexit. Most likely, the prime minister will return to Britain and continue to prepare for the hard Brexit, and the Parliament, which will soon leave the holidays, will continue to prepare for a vote of no confidence in Johnson.

Well, the pound will remain in a downward trend, since the date of the hard Brexit is approaching, there is no hope that the "divorce" will take place amicably.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair has begun a new round of a downward correction against an upward trend. Thus, formally, purchases of the pound sterling by minimum lots with the target of 1.2207 remain formally relevant, however, in fact, purchases of the British pound in the current conditions are fraught with increased risks.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be considered.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR/USD. August 21st. Results of the day. The Fed called the key rate cut "a mid-cycle adjustment"

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 60p - 68p - 47p - 38p - 41p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 51p (54p).

Wednesday, August 21, passed in the same calm direction as the first two trading days of the week. The only macroeconomic event of the past day was the publication of the Fed meeting's minutes. As we expected, the minutes did not contain anything interesting. In general, it rarely happens that a minutes can surprise traders with something. This time, based on the minutes, two members of the monetary committee opposed the rate cut, but Jerome Powell spoke in favor of cutting the rate (the impact of Donald Trump?), The minutes also said that the rate cut was caused by some adjustment in the middle of the cycle in response to changing economic prospects. Also, as always, emphasis was placed on inflation, which used to be significantly higher than 2.0%, and has currently been below the Fed target for quite some time.

Since there are practically no movements on the market, we can once again suggest the prospects for the euro/dollar pair in the coming weeks. Firstly, the next Fed meeting will be held on September 17-18, accordingly, there will not be a new rate cut until this time. Secondly, this Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech and his rhetoric will tell traders whether the regulator is preparing for a new decline in any case, or will nevertheless analyze economic indicators before deciding to change monetary policy. If Powell does not give clear signals about the rate cut in September, the US dollar will remain in the leading position, as there are still no special reasons, besides correctional ones, to buy the euro.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to adjust against the downward trend, and the Bollinger bands reversed to the side and narrowed to a low. Thus, now we have a pronounced flat. It is recommended to wait until its completion and only after that resume trading on the euro/dollar pair.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be considered.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 22, 2019

EUR/USD

The minutes published yesterday from the last Federal Reserve meeting were not only "outdated", as some consulting agencies called them in light of the fact that trade negotiations between the US and China were resumed, but also neutral in content - some FOMC members even voted against lower rates. As a result, the market probability of a rate cut in September fell from 99.2% to 98.5%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in October to 1.75% fell from 80.6% to 67.8%, and to 2.00% has increased from 19.2% to 31.1%. That is, investors have measured the aggressiveness of expectations of a "super softening." Indeed, many simply forgot that the Fed ceases to unload its own balance, getting rid of mortgage securities, and such a measure, as historically believed, is equivalent to lowering the rate by the same 0.25%. As a result, the euro returned to Monday's range, investors with even greater calmness await the news from Jackson Hole. The event opens today, Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow. Trading volumes were below average yesterday.

The Marlin oscillator has not yet "cooled down" on the daily chart and there is a slight increase in the signal line.

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On the four-hour chart, yesterday's growth came to a stop on the balance indicator line. As in previous days, the price remains in the expectated range of 1.1066-1.1120. We are looking forward to breaking the range down today or tomorrow with the prospect of a decline to 1.0980 - the Fibonacci reaction level of 138.2% (daily).

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 22, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Consumer Confidence, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, and French Flash Services PMI. The US will also publish the economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Unemployment Claims, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1143. Strong Resistance: 1.1137. Original Resistance: 1.1126. Inner Sell Area: 1.1115. Target Inner Area: 1.1089. Inner Buy Area: 1.1063. Original Support: 1.1052. Strong Support: 1.1041. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1035. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 22, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release All Industries Activity m/m and Flash Manufacturing PMI, while the US will publish some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, CB Leading Index m/m, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and Unemployment Claims. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3: 107.09. Resistance. 2: 106.86. Resistance. 1: 106.64. Support. 1: 106.40. Support. 2: 106.20. Support. 3: 105.99. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 22

Forecast for August 22 :

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1124, 1.1102, 1.1073, 1.1062, 1.1032 and 1.1011. Here, the price is in correction from the downward structure on August 13. Short-term movement to the bottom is except in the range of 1.1073 - 1.1062. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 1.1032. Price consolidation is near this level and hence, the possibility of a correction. For the potential value for the downward trend, we consider the level of 1.1032.

The breakdown of the level of 1.1107 will lead to the formation of a pronounced potential for the top. In this case, the first goal is 1.1124, wherein consolidation is near this level.

The main trend is the downward cycle of August 13, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1108 Take profit: 1.1122

Buy Take profit:

Sell: 1.1060 Take profit: 1.1035

Sell: 1.1030 Take profit: 1.1011

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2263, 1.2219, 1.2203, 1.2184, 1.2131.1.2105 and 1.2063. Here, the price forms a local structure for the subsequent development of the upward trend and is currently in deep correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2185. In this case, the target is 1.2203, wherein consolidation is near this level. The passage of the price at the noise range 1.2203 - 1.2219 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.2263. We expect a pullback to this level from this level.

Consolidated movement is possibly in the range of 1.2131 - 1.2105. The breakdown of the latter value will have the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2063.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of August 20, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2185 Take profit: 1.2203

Buy: 1.2220 Take profit: 1.2260

Sell: 1.2129 Take profit: 1.2105

Sell: 1.2103 Take profit: 1.2065

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9949, 0.9923, 0.9883, 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9768, 0.9745 and 0.9714. Here, we follow the ascending structure of August 13. At the moment, we expect a movement to the level of 0.9854. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9854 - 0.9883. The breakdown of the level of 0.9883 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.9923. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9949. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9768 - 0.9745. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9714. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9816 Take profit: 0.9854

Buy : 0.9856 Take profit: 0.9881

Sell: 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9747

Sell: 0.9743 Take profit: 0.9715

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure from August 12. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The range of 105.94 - 105.64 is a key support for the top. Its passage at the price will lead to the development of a downward movement. In this case, the target is 105.01.

The main trend: building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3345, 1.3319, 1.3300, 1.3246, 1.3217, 1.3182 and 1.3158. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward movement of August 20. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3246. In this case, the target is 1.3217, and near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.3217 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.3182. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3158. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3300 - 1.3319. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the formation of an upward structure. Here, the target is 1.3345.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the bottom of August 20.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3300 Take profit: 1.3316

Buy : 1.3321 Take profit: 1.3345

Sell: 1.3246 Take profit: 1.3219

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3182

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of August 7, and the price has formed a small potential for the top of August 14. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case, the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range of 0.6762 - 0.6733. The breakdown of the level of 0.6733 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.6675.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : 0.6760 Take profit : 0.6736

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6680

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.40, 118.65, 118.22, 117.58, 117.16 and 116.54. Here, we are following the development of local potential for the bottom of August 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.58 - 117.16. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 116.54, where near this level is a consolidation.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.22 - 118.65. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 119.40.

The main trend is the formation of a local descending structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.62

Buy: 118.70 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.18

Sell: 117.14 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 132.17, 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 127.94, 127.33, 126.48 and 125.57. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 12. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 129.00 - 129.66. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 130.57. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 130.57 - 131.23. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 132.17. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 127.94 - 127.33. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the first goal is 126.48. For the potential value, we consider the level of 125.57.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.67 Take profit: 130.55

Buy: 130.60 Take profit: 131.20

Sell: 127.30 Take profit: 126.50

Sell: 126.44 Take profit: 125.60

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USD/JPY: Bulls pull the cover onto themselves

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The energetic yen has recently lost all its fuse and is in search of reasons for further growth. It can be inspired by previous market participants' refusal of risky assets or a decrease in treasury profitability. There is nothing on the horizon that could push the Japanese yen and strategists have talked about the potential for lowering the quotes of the safe haven currency.

Despite the fact that economists at Goldman Sachs did not adjust their 3-month forecast for USD/JPY at 103, they do not exclude the transfer of control over the situation to the bulls. Data from the United States are mostly positive, the White House flatly refuses to talk about a possible recession in the country. Other states with problems in the economy have already responded by easing monetary policy.

Meanwhile, traders continue to monitor the situation in China, markets are also worried about the slowdown in the global economy in the context of small opportunities to reduce rates by key securities. Fears may well serve as a catalyst for the yen's growth.

However, a similar situation took place, as noted in Goldman Sachs. Three years ago, the influence of such drivers came to naught, and ended with an increase in USD/JPY quotes by 15% (!).

Given the widespread support for fiscal stimulus, the prospects for global economic growth will improve. Fed officials will not need a hasty cut in rates. By the way, new measures are possible on the part of the Bank of Japan. This can be expressed as an increase in purchases of government bonds or as a revision of the yield target.

Citigroup and Credit Suisse believe that the yen retains the potential for further growth. In the next 12 months, it can rise in price to 100 yen per dollar. The last time the USD/JPY pair visited the area was in August 2016.

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Currency strategists draw attention to the fact that this year the Japanese currency showed the best results among competitors from the Group of 10. In relation to the dollar, its growth amounted to 3%.

Gold

Gold, which is another defensive asset, has grown in price by 6% since the beginning of August. This figure emerged as a result of the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Judging by how events are developing in US-Chinese relations, gold may continue the upward trend. Technical analysts predict precious metals at such levels like $1820 and $1920.

Currently, the growth of gold quotes is interrupted, and there were opinions about the false start.

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According to strategists, the financial authorities' willingness to help the markets supports the risk appetite and puts pressure on defensive assets like gold in particular. However, the rise in prices for precious metals can not be called a false start. Another global financial crisis, which, according to the theory of cycles, can happen in the next two years, can not be avoided. An ounce of gold can grow to $1800.

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The game against the dollar will not bring benefits, and the pound will fall

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Recent positive macroeconomic data has lifted the mood for pound traders, but not for long. The approaching date of Britain's exit from the EU has forced the markets to decline from heaven to earth. "Hard Brexit" has not yet been canceled. Over the past three months, the GBP / USD pair has lost almost 7% of its value.

Some short-term positive sterling brought Angela Merkel. According to the German Chancellor, EU members will think about practical solutions for the Irish border after Brexit. It was the other day, and yesterday, traders are discouraged again.

The date of Britain's exit from the EU has changed twice, and apparently, there won't be a third time. Boris Johnson stubbornly insists that the country will leave the group on October 31 under any circumstances. This worries market participants and constantly puts pressure on the British currency. According to the market, the scandalous "divorce" with the European Union will harm the economy of England. Due to rising inflation, the probability of increasing rates in the country is growing. Moreover, the Central Bank will be able to increase them, provided that Brexit occurs without complications.

In addition, Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn is trying to influence the Brexit situation. He plans a third attempt to change the release date. To do this, the British Prime Minister should be removed from office. However, Corbyn's attempts to pass a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson were unsuccessful. Although there is information that the Labor Party and the Scottish National Party are joining forces to prevent disordered Brexit.

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is scheduled to meet with European leaders this week. Given that the British government does not plan to change its position in relation to the exit from the EU, the pound should prepare for new negative news. Thus, the GBP / USD pair will remain under pressure until October 31. The "tough" scenario assumes the strongest depreciation of the English currency.

This fundamental factor dominates technical analysis. Under current circumstances, you should pay attention to short positions in the pair GBP / USD. Long positions can only be considered after the growth of quotes above 1.2280. The first signal for purchases will be a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.2120, but it should be bear in mind that growth above resistance levels of 1.2480 and 1.2530 is hardly possible.

In general, the market is dominated by long-term negative dynamics, which means that short positions are preferred. The immediate goal of the decline is 1.20. This is the minimum level of 2017.

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As for the dollar, it remains stable in spite of Donald Trump's calls for an aggressive policy easing. Thus, the growing dollar makes the pound even more vulnerable to sales.

Last Wednesday, the minutes of the July meeting of the Fed was published. If traders find hints in the document for further easing of the policy, the US currency may turn down, but there is no reason to expect a collapse.

The US economy in the context of trade conflicts and a slowdown in global GDP remains stable and shows growth. Representatives of the White House and the Fed continue to convince the market, focusing on the fact that the States are far from a recession. This fact supports the demand for the dollar and US assets.

The markets, in turn, seemed to have gone too far in their expectations, hoping for three rounds of rate cuts. Any slightly disappointing information can lead to emotional reactions.

An even bigger catalyst for the markets will be Jerome Powell's speech at the Symposium on Friday. It is worth noting that such events were used by the Fed to communicate with markets during periods of uncertainty.

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GBP/USD: Brussels expects a clear answer from London, selling the pound is still a priority

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According to some analysts, despite the fact that the pound has managed to stay above the psychological support at $1.20 this month even in the conditions of growing uncertainty around Brexit, the chances of sellers to reach this mark are still high.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is still determined to withdraw the country from the European Union on October 31, and negotiators from the eurozone still do not want to discuss a new deal.

The day before, Reuters reported that 27 EU member states regretted the fact that the British prime minister had not yet made concrete proposals to replace the Irish back-stop.

B. Johnson's point of view on this issue in many respects echoes the position of his predecessor - Theresa May. She also wanted to avoid a tight border in Ireland and find alternative mechanisms to achieve this goal, but her ideas were not supported by British MPs, and the current head of government is not immune from a similar scenario.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has already said that he will do everything possible to avoid Brexit without a deal, adding that in the event of a new referendum he will definitely introduce a clause that allows Great Britain to remain in the EU. Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, in turn, said that he would not allow the prime minister to suspend the work of Parliament.

As the political situation in the United Kingdom continues to deteriorate, outlining not the brightest prospects for the pound, analysts recommend that you refrain from opening long positions on the GBP/USD pair.

On August 12, the British currency sank to its lowest level since the beginning of 2017 at $ 1.2015 against the US dollar. Last week, positive statistics on the labor market, inflation and retail sales in the UK kept GBP/USD from breaking below the level of 1.20. So far, the pair has not been able to go beyond the range of 1.20-1.2210. The risk of an absence of a deal with the EU and tensions in world trade affect the pound's dynamics, spurring the tendency to sell it during rebound periods. If the pound breaks the $1.20 mark, then it can test the low of $ 1.1841, which was reached in October 2016.

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Gold at the crossroads: there are plenty of reasons for a correction, but no less in favor of growth

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Gold froze at a crossroads. Apparently, speculators who push prices higher, and consumers who want to buy cheaper metals, decided to take a break.

Since the beginning of this year, gold has risen by almost 19% in price, breaking the psychologically important mark of $1,500 per ounce. The last time this level was observed was in April 2013.

The main reason for the growth of quotes was the fear of investors about the global recession, which forces them to shift capital to safe haven assets. It is assumed that if the concerns of market participants begin to be confirmed, the rally of precious metals will continue.

"Rising prices to a six-year high is primarily due to bonds, and it is extremely important for investors to monitor changes in their yield in order to understand what will be the dynamics," said Oax Hansen of Saxo Bank.

The decrease in bond yields in the world has already led to the fact that sovereign bonds with a total volume of almost $16 trillion give a negative percentage.

The jump in the cost of precious metals was also caused by expectations that the Fed, the ECB and other central banks would stimulate economic growth in various ways. The easing of monetary policy tends to lower interest rates and increase the investment attractiveness of gold.

A sharp rise in prices carries the risks of an equally sharp decline, analysts warn.

"The aggregate gold volume in ETFs is steadily growing and has reached 77.4 million ounces, which is the highest for six years. Previous similar bursts of speculative demand caused a serious correction of quotations," O. Hansen said.

In addition, fears of a global recession may also be exaggerated: now markets are most likely driven by emotions. Recent macroeconomic data for the United States were positive and the reduction of interest rates by the world central bank is aimed at maintaining economic growth.

Reducing tensions in Washington and Beijing's trade relations could also serve as a reason for a short, albeit sharp, price correction.

Another negative point for gold may be the expected decline in demand for jewelry in India due to an increase in import duties in the country from 10% to 12.5%, as well as a change in ETF positions, which will respond to the sale of precious metals in response to a restoration of risk appetite .

In case the Fed comes with a surprise - not to continue to lower the interest rate - a correction in gold prices is also possible.

"We expect the Fed to disappoint the market without lowering interest rates in the coming months, and profit taking will ultimately trigger the end of the gold rally. In the event of a pullback, the $1,350 mark per ounce is likely to become a new level of support," representatives of the Fitch rating agency said.

However, there are plenty of factors in favor of the growth of quotes.

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the main drivers of gold price growth will be real interest rates, stock risk premium, US dollar, as well as purchases of precious metals by central banks.

According to the forecast of Deutsche Bank, the price of gold will be $1,575 per ounce in the next year and a half, and under certain conditions it can reach $1,700.

"Gold is an extremely profitable investment amid the easing of monetary policy by the leading central banks of the world," said Mark Mebius, founder of the Mobius Capital Partners investment fund.

"The long-term prospect of gold – up, up and only up, because the money supply in the world will grow, grow and grow again. Therefore, I believe that gold should be bought at any price," he said.

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The Swiss franc is stable, but it is recommended to hedge

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According to analysts at the leading bank, Wells Fargo, the Swiss currency expects a gradual weakening against the European one. At the same time, experts do not exclude a slight rise of the franc against the US dollar. Thus, they recommend hedging the risks associated with the Swiss currency.

As observed by Nick Bennenbroek, head of foreign exchange at Wells Fargo, the Swiss National Bank could begin to gradually weaken the national currency. At the moment, the regulator has stepped up measures aimed at curbing the growth of the Swiss franc. In this situation, investors who may suffer losses from changes in the franc / euro exchange rate should be hedged, warn Wells Fargo.

Many market participants believe that the Central Bank of Switzerland is ready to lower interest rates. It is possible that this will happen next month, since traders are already laying such a step in prices. If the upward pressure on the franc continues, then on September 19, 2019, the National Bank of Switzerland will reduce rates, Wells Fargo is confident.

Currently, the EUR / CHF pair is trading in the range of $ 1.08707– $ 1.08787. On the other hand, the USD / CHF pair is trading at $ 0.9771 and continues to move within the correction and the downward channel. An additional signal in favor of the fall of the USD / CHF pair may be a rebound from the resistance area, experts say. The forecast for this pair involves testing the resistance level near the $ 0.9785 mark. However, experts do not rule out the fall to the level of $ 0.9625. Wells Fargo believes that the Swiss currency will strengthen slightly against the US dollar relative to current levels, as well as against the euro, it will become weaker.

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Under siege of sanctions: the market lost about 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil

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According to information and analytical agency Refinitiv Eikon, last month, oil exports from Iran amounted to only 100 thousand barrels per day. According to analysts, Washington's sanctions on Tehran have robbed the global black gold market of nearly 2.7 million barrels of Iranian oil.

Analysts at Refinitiv Eikon note that the United States eliminated Iran from the global market for the supply of raw materials. After the imposition of sanctions against Tehran in November 2018, 11 countries of the world had the exclusive right to buy Iranian oil. However, in May 2019, these counties lost their privileges. US authorities hoped to reduce the export of Iranian raw materials to zero, and now they are succeeding, analysts say. The world market has not received about 2.7 million barrels of black gold from Iran, and this is not the limit.

It should be noted that since restrictions started November 2018, the Islamic Republic has not provided official data on oil exports, so it is difficult to assess the exact losses.

Since the beginning of this year, Brent crude oil has risen in price on the world market by 11.3%, and light grade WTI - by 23.7%. Now the reference raw material is trading slightly below $60 per barrel, which is much less than the 2019 high of $75.60 per barrel. Analysts believe that we should not expect a steady increase in oil prices in the near future, as a number of factors put pressure on the market. These include concerns about a slowdown in global demand, a protracted trade conflict between the United States and China, the extension of the OPEC+ agreement to limit oil production, as well as US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

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EUR/USD: the dollar is waiting for signals from the Fed

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Since the end of last week, the EUR/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range of 1.1060-1.1110.

On one side of the scale, the European one, are the weak economic indicators of the eurozone, the political crisis in Italy and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, on the other, the American one, there are eye-catching statistics for the US and statements by the White House and the Federal Reserve's leadership that the country's economy is still solid stands on its feet and she is not afraid of trade wars. The answer to the question on whose side the advantage should be, it would seem, is obvious - on the side of the greenback. Based on this, the nearest target for EUR/USD is support in the 1.1000-1.1025 zone, after breaking through to the parity of the euro against the dollar it will remain within reach.

However, if you imagine other scales, then the picture becomes somewhat different. On the European scale - announced last week by Olli Rehn, a member of the Governing Council of the ECB, lower interest rates and the revival of the quantitative easing program (QE) in September, while on the American - the expectation of a recession in the United States, Donald Trump's criticism of the Fed's actions and a possible reduction in the federal funds rate by the end of this year from 2.25% to 1.75%. If Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell succumbs to pressure from the White House, an upward turn in EUR/USD and growth to the area of 1.1300-1.1400 are not excluded.

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According to analysts, the minutes of the July Fed meeting, which will be released today, can provide some clarity about the US financial policy.

Last month, the US central bank lowered the interest rate by 0.25% to counter the increased risk to the US economy associated with the slowdown in global growth and trade wars.

It should be noted that there is no consensus among the leaders of the Fed on this matter. Two of the twelve members of the FOMC spoke out against the cut. Some other officials also questioned the need for such a step.

"We should avoid over-scale easing of monetary policy in the absence of significant problems in the economy. It is necessary to focus on unemployment and inflation. I believe that the current economic situation in the country is quite favorable. The weakening of monetary policy is fraught with certain costs if it is done unnecessarily," said Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren last Monday.

Despite the differences in the central bank's leadership, Fed Chairman J. Powell made it clear that further easing of monetary policy is quite possible. Therefore, market participants expect additional signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the prospects for monetary policy.

It is assumed that the soft tone of the minutes from the July FOMC meeting will negatively affect the dollar, while the harsh rhetoric of the Fed leadership will push it to further growth.

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AUD/USD. The Australian dollar takes advantage of the lull as it tries to conquer the 68th figure

The Australian dollar, coupled with the US currency, woke up from a lethargic dream today and tested the 68th figure, showing an upward impulse. However, this is far from the AUD/USD bulls' first attempt to enter the area of this figure - over the past two weeks, buyers have stormed the 0.6800 mark three times, but in each case they have come back. On the other hand, aussie bears also look helpless - trying to go below 0.6750, they likewise fail.

In other words, a contradictory fundamental background allows both bulls and bears of the AUD/USD pair to intercept the initiative, but, on the other hand, does not allow them to go too far from the middle of the price range. Therefore, today we are witnessing only one of the attempts of traders to leave a given price range. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that this attempt is unlikely to be successful - dollar bulls froze in anticipation of Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, and the Australian currency does not have its own strength to break the pair's trend. Nevertheless, if AUD/USD bulls overcome the nearest resistance level of 0.6810 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), they will have a chance to gain a foothold in the 68th figure, and in the future - rise one step higher, thereby approaching the key resistance level of 0.7000.

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However, it is too early to talk about such price heights. In general, the foreign exchange market shows minimal activity this week - and this is entirely justified, given the upcoming forum in Jackson Hole, which starts tomorrow. In addition, the Fed's minutes will be published at the end of today's US trading session, the rhetoric of which may also affect investor sentiment. And yet, the central event of the week is the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve (Friday, August 23, at 14:00 London time) - until that moment, dollar bulls are unlikely to decide on a large-scale offensive (or retreat).

At the same time, it is worth noting that the Fed minutes is an important document, but at the same time it is belated. It reflects the mood of traders at the time of the meeting, although over the past two weeks there have been many events that could affect the position of members of the US regulator. For example, last week fairly good data were published on inflation in the United States, as well as on growth in retail sales. In addition, the level of labor costs in the United States was published last Thursday, which also ended up in the green zone, significantly ahead of forecasts.

But all of the above releases were published after the July meeting of the Fed, so the minutes of this meeting must be considered through the prism of this fact. However, if members of the Federal Reserve voiced strong concern about the growing trade conflict between the United States and China, indicating in this context the possibility of further easing of monetary policy, the dollar may fall under a wave of sales, since since July 31 (that is, since the last meeting) the relationship between superpowers have not improved, despite the recent steps of Washington and Beijing.

The Australian dollar also reacts quite sharply to the dynamics of the US-Chinese conflict, so the lull period allows aussie traders to switch to other fundamental factors. In particular, the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia published earlier this week reassured investors about the regulator's next steps. Although the RBA members did not exclude the option of a third rate cut this year, they made it clear that the central bank, firstly, will not resort to aggressive mitigation methods (by analogy with the RBNZ), and secondly, they will evaluate everything that is "for" and "against" before the next decision.

Earlier, the head of the Australian regulator Philip Lowe voiced cautious, but at the same time optimistic assessments of the current situation. According to him, the Australian economy has reached a "soft turning point". The protective measures that were taken by the Australian government and the central bank (in particular, we are talking about tax cuts, lower interest rates) against the backdrop of the devaluation of the national currency, apparently, had a positive effect. According to RBA economists, the results of quarterly GDP growth will gradually improve.

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Thus, the fundamental background for the AUD/USD pair has improved somewhat - partly due to the wait-and-see attitude of dollar bulls and the RBA members. The renewed risk appetite in the foreign exchange market also contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar and, accordingly, it's correction. As mentioned above, the initial task of the pair's bulls is to overcome the mark of 0.6810. Then buyers will have chances to consolidate success (the next resistance level is at 0.6880 - this is the Kijun-sen line on D1). Otherwise, the pair will return to its familiar range of 0.6740-0.6880, where it will be traded before the Fed's speech on Friday.

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