Gold analysis for June 01, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of $1,202.11 in an ultra high volume (buying climax). The price has broke the level of $1,195.00 (top of our trading range). According to the daily time frame, we can observe demand in an average volume and strong price action. Also, the price has broke our supply trendline, which is a sign that selling looks very risky. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 50% at the price of $1,206.00 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of $1,212.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,195.75

R2: 1,197.50

R3: 1,200.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,190.00

S2: 1,188.00

S3: 1,185.50

Trading recommendations: The price has broke our trading range upside and my advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities on the dips.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 01, 2015

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Fundamental overview: USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias. It is undermined by softer USD sentiment after surprising drop in the US ISM Chicago PMI to 46.2 in May from 52.3 in April (versus forecast for rise to 53.0). USD/JPY is also weighed by lower US Treasury yields (10-year fell 3.5 bps to 2.095% Friday), diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 3.98% to 13.84, S&P 500 closed 0.63% lower at 2,107.39 Friday) on weak PMI data, contraction of the US 1Q 2nd estimate GDP annual rate by 0.7% (although beating minus 1.0% forecast), and Japan's exports. But USD sentiment is soothed by the stronger-than-expected May University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index of 90.7 (versus forecast 89.5). USD/JPY downside is also limited by demand from Japanese importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still positive-biased asthe MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.80 and the second target at 125.25. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.85 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.45. The pivot point is at 123.60.

Resistance levels: 124.80 125.25 125.75

Support levels: 122.85 122.45 121.70

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 01, 2015

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Fundamental overview: USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a weekly low of 0.9343 on Friday. It is undermined by softer USD sentiment and franc demand on cross trades versus major currencies. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. Swiss data were mixed on Friday as bigger-than-expected 0.2% on-quarter contraction of Switzerland Q1 GDP (versus forecast -0.1%) offset by stronger-than-expected Switzerland KOF economic barometer of 93.1 (versus forecast 90.0) in May.

Technical comment: The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is bearish at overbought levels.

Trading recommendations: The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.95 and the second target at 0.9550. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9335 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9280. The pivot point is at 0.9385.

Resistance levels: 0.9500 0.9550 0.9610

Support levels: 0.9335 0.9280 0.9245

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 01, 2015

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Fundamental overview: NZD/USD is expected to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting a four-and-a-half year low at 0.7065 this morning. Financial markets in New Zealand were closed for a public holiday today. NZD/USD is undermined by speculation that the RBNZ would cut interest rates in coming months, diminished investor risk appetite, and soft dairy prices and kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD crosses. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by softer USD sentiment and NZD-USD interest differential.

Technical comment: The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD is bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at oversold levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are falling.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7090. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7030. The pivot point stands at 0.7140. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7200 and the second target at 0.7270.

Resistance levels: 0.7200 0.7270 0.73

Support levels: 0.7090 0.7030 0.7

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 01, 2015

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Fundamental outlook: GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a two-week high of 136.47 on Friday. It is underpinned by demand from Japanese importers. Upside, GBP/JPY is limited by diminished investor risk appetite and Japan's exports.

Technical comment:The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bullish, but the MACD is in bearish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 190 and the second target at 190.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 188.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 187.80. The pivot point is at 190.05.

Resistance levels: 190.60 191.20 191.75

Support levels: 188.60 187.80 187

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 1-5, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of EUR/USD pair:

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Overview:

  • The level of 1.1008 will indicate strong resistance on June 1, 2015. Moreover, we expect the level of 1.1008 to form a double top at this spot in the H1 chart. On the other hand, the minor support has been set at 1.0938 and the major support is seen at 1.0890. Also, the double bottom is expected to be placed at 1.0891. Furthermore, according to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels 1.0900 and 1.1010. Consequently, it will be wise to sell in the area of 1.1010 with the targets at 1.0970 and 1.0938 (the weekly pivot point) in coming hours. The stop loss should be placed above the level of 1.1010. It will be very useful to set your stop loss at 1.1052.

Notes:

  • The double top will be set at 1.1008.
  • The major support is seen at 1.0891.
  • The minor support was found at 1.0936.
  • The price has only hit the minor support.
  • We expect a range of 71 pips today.
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 1-5, 2015

The weekly technical analysis of GBP/USD pair:

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Overview:

  • The GBP/USD pair is expected to move between the levels of 1.5178 and 1.5343. The support is set at the level of 1.5178 (support 1); and the double bottom was placed at the point of 1.5236. Consequently, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above 1.5200 because the area of 1.5178 and 1.5236 is going to act as strong support. Therefore, it will be a good sign to buy above this area today with the first target at 1.5343 in order to test the weekly pivot point in the H1 chart. If the trend does not succeed to close above 1.5343, the market will go in the downtrend below the weekly pivot point towards the levels of 1.5242 and 1.5220.
  • However, the stop loss should be placed above the pivot point at the level of 1.5340.
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EUR/JPY resistance broken, rate should grow

After the price dropped from a high of 149.71, tested at the end of 2014, to a low at 123.11, tested back on April 14, 2015. So, the EUR/JPY pair launched a corrective wave.

Within correction, the price broke above the descending channel that was followed by a closure above the R1 (136.07) resistance level, which is 23.6% Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point. According to these technical analysis, EUR/JPY has yet to test the resistance, which is R2 (139.13) - 0% Fibs.

While RSI shows a bullish divergence, the pair is trading right at the uptrend trendline and could be a starting point for the next wave up. Consider buying EUR/JPY at the current level targeting R2 (139.13). Only a break below S1 (134.12) should be able to give bears more power.

Support: 134.15, 132.62, 131.09

Resistance: 136.07, 139.13

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 1, 2015

General overview for 01/06/2015 10:40 CET

An upward momentum is visibly diminished and the more complex corrective cycle is unfolding in the intraday H1 time frame. The other alternative count presented on the chart points out a little longer-than-expected wave -iii- and a top for wave -v- (and 1 blue) at the level of 1.2537. It does not really matter now what labeling is correct as both of them point out a possibility of a downward corrective cycle with the first support at 1.2395. The mid-term bias is still bullish and when the corrective cycle is completed, new highs should be made.

Support/Resistance:

1.2575 - WR1

1.2537 - Local Swing High|Intraday Resistance|

1.2422 - Weekly Pivot

1.2395 - Intraday Support

1.2321 - Technical Support

1.2313 - WS1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above 1.2537 and TP at the level of 1.2422, with a possibility of an extension downwards to the level of 1.2398. In longer perspective, buying on dips during the corrective cycle is the way to trade this market until proved otherwise.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 1, 2015

General overview for 01/06/2015 10:50 CET

An upward corrective cycle had been re-labeled to incorporate a triple zig-zag corrective structure that topped the level of 136.40, just shy of 88%Fibo level. Currently, wave progression to the downside looks impulsive. It might develop in full five wave progression if the level of 134.98 is violated. From the upside, resistance is provided by a weekly pivot at the level of 135.53 and bullish/neutral zone around 136.07. Please notice that only a breakout below the level of 133.80 will be considered as the major confirmation of a local top and downside wave development opportunity.

Support/Resistance:

136.40 - Wave 2 High

136.07 - Bullish/Neutral Zone Level

135.53 - Weekly Pivot

135.34 - Technical Resistance

134.98 - Intraday Support

134.67 - WS1

133.80 - Bearish/Neutral Zone Level

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening sell orders from the current price levels with SL above the level of 136.40 and TP at the level of 134.98, with a possibility of an extension down to the level of 134.67 and below.

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Technical analysis of Silver for June 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around the level of $16.70 preparing to rally through the level of $17.00. Please note that the metal bounced off the fibonacci 0.50 levels making a rally between $15.60 and resistance turned support, through the level of $17.70, and around $16.50. Also note that the metal could drop to the level of $16.40 before resuming its rally. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk around $16.00. Immediate support is seen at $16.20 followed by $15.80, $15.60, and lower. Resistance is seen at $17.30 followed by $17.70, $18.40/50, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at $16.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Gold for June 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading at the level of $1,190.00 now, after having touched $1,195.00 on the higher side. Please note that the metal had bounced off from fibonacci 0.786 levels of the rally between $1,168.00 and trendline support through the level of $1,230.00. Bulls should be poised to remain in control until prices remain above trendline support for now. It is hence recommended to remain long for with risk below $1,168.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of $1,180.00 (interim) followed by $1,168.00 and lower. Resistance is seen at the level of $1,215.00 (interim) followed by $1,230.00, $1,235.00/40.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop at $1,165.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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USDX wave analysis for June 1, 2015

The US Dollar Index is most probably in its 4th wave correction phase. We should expect a new impulsive wave upwards as a part of the fifth wave of the 1st wave up towards new highs. The three wave correction at 93.10 is complete and the reversal is to be confirmed soon with a sequence of 5 waves up from recent lows. A strong pullback should be expected before resumption of the uptrend.

Black lines = bullish channel

Red lines = wave 4 correction channel

Orange lines = past bearish channel that was broken

The US Dollar Index is trading above the Ichimoku cloud. I believe we are in a wave 4 sideways move that will end soon. A new upward wave will start. We expect this upward wave to be most probably wave 5 for a new upward move that started from 93.10. This will complete the 1st wave of the new upward move that is expected to reach new highs. Short-term support is found at 96.70 and short-term resistance is seen at 97.30.

The last two weeks have been very bullish for the US Dollar Index. Bulls have managed to step in and push the price not only above the kijun-sen but also above the tenkan-sen. The retracement at 38% was marginally reached and I believe it is over. A new upward impulsive move has started. We should expect a back test of the red tenkan-sen indicator but my longer-term view remains bullish.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around the level of 136.00 at the moment, after having pulled back from 136.50 earlier. Please note that bears should now remain in control until prices stay below 137.00. Also note that a bearish evening star pattern has been formed on the H4 chart view. It is hence recommended to remain short and initiate fresh short positions as well with risk above the level of 137.00. Immediate support is seen at 134.00 followed by 133.00, 131.50, 129.00, and lower. Resistance is seen at the level of 137.00.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short, stop at 137.30, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Gold technical analysis for June 1, 2015

Gold price remains inside the downward sloping channel and below short-term resistance at $1,200-$1,205. However, bears have not managed to break below support at $1,170 yet. Gold price has been trading within a trading range for more than one month. This has been frustrating, but traders should remain calm and patient. Longer-term view remains bearish. The bearish scenario of new lows below $1,130 is preferable.

Blue line = support

Black lines = bearish channel

Gold price remains below the short-term Ichimoku cloud. The price remains also inside the black bearish channel. However, critical support at $1,170 remains intact. Short-term support is found at $1,180 while short-term resistance is at $1,197. If short-term resistance is broken, we will find next resistance at $1,200-$1,205. If support is broken, we will see the next support at $1,170.

The weekly chart remains fully bearish. The price got another rejection at the Ichimoku cloud as expected. The price did not manage to reach the 61.8% retracement. It closed the previous week below the red line tenkan-sen indicator and this is a bearish signal. The rejection at the kijun-sen is important too and that is why I remained bearish for so long. Bulls do not seem to be strong enough to reverse the longer-term bearish trend. In case the huge support at $1,130 gets broken, we will go towards $1,000.

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for June 01, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4420 after having formed a bottom at 1.4300 earlier. Please note that the pair has been supported by a convergence of fibonacci 0.382 levels and resistance turned support trendline around the level of 1.4300 . We still see potential for a drop through 1.4150 before the pair could reverse higher. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to initiate long positions at lower levels again. Immediate support is seen at 1.4150 followed by 1.4000, 1.3850, and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4650 followed by 1.4700, 1.4850, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Look to buy lower.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of major pairs for June 1, 2015

EUR/USD: The dominant bias remains bearish here, irrespective of a formidable rally in the context of a downtrend which occurred last week. This price action would be taken as a short-selling opportunity unless the resistance line at 1.1100 is overcome.

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USD/CHF: This market first went upwards last week, but gains made by bulls were forfeited because of the perceived stamina in CHF. Should CHF continue strengthening, the bearish correction may continue, which can eventually invalidate the current bullish bias.

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GBP/USD: The cable dropped by 200 pips last week. It closed below the distribution territory at 1.5300. It is not logical to go long in this market unless the distribution territories at 1.5500 and 1.5550 are overcome to the upside – something that would require a very strong rally.

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USD/JPY: This pair is also bullish and the price may continue its upward journey as long as JPY is weak. The price moved upwards by 250 pips last week closing above the demand level at 124.00. Although, the pair consolidated around the end of last week. There should probably be a breakout to the upside enabling the price to reach supply levels at 124.50 and 125.00 this week. The outlook on most JPY pairs is bullish for this month.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair took a nice bullish run last week, moving upwards from the demand zone at 133.50 and going far above the demand zone at 136.00. This movement of roughly 300 pips has resulted in a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. This is a situation that could continue this week. The outlook is already bullish.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 01, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic data on the Final Manufacturing PMI, German Final Manufacturing PMI, French Final Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, Spanish Manufacturing PMI, and German Prelim CPI m/m are due.The US will release data on the ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1008.

Strong Resistance:1.1002.

Original Resistance: 1.0991.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0980.

Target Inner Area: 1.0955.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0930.

Original Support: 1.0919.

Strong Support: 1.0908.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0902.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 01, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the Final Manufacturing PMI and Capital Spending q/q. The US is expected to release economic data on the ISM Manufacturing Prices, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and Core PCE Price Index m/m. So, there is a strong probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.

TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 124.85.

Resistance. 2: 124.61.

Resistance. 1: 124.36.

Support. 1: 124.07.

Support. 2: 123.82.

Support. 3: 123.58.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/CAD consolidating

After testing the bottom at 1.3025, EUR/CAD started to move higher. New higher highs were achieved without any signs of weakness that could attract buyers and push price even higher.

The descending channel has been broken. Fibonacci levels applied to the breakout point show that there is significant support at S2 (1.3507) that has been tested for tree times. It has been rejected continuously. The price tested R1 (1.3806) resistance level and rejected it. However, the bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator suggests that the corrective move up might be not over yet.

Consider buying EUR/CAD at the current level targeting at R2 (1.3990) as this is where the next Fib resistance (23.6%) is seen. Only a break below the Doji candle low (1.3426) could result in a further decline.

Support: 1.3658, 1.3507, 1.3323

Resistance: 1.3806, 1.3990

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 01, 2015

The USDX is doing some pullbacks in favor of the bullish bias, as the Index is trying to break the support level of 96.97 in order to go until 95.74. For now, the bullish road is still alive, but the USDX needs to do corrective moves first to ride the bullish bias.

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During the Friday session, we saw some irregular moves of the USDX, because the Index was lagging above the support zone at 96.90. The resistance level of 97.16 could be tested in the coming hours. On the H1 chart, the 200 SMA is bullish and the current structure is advising us about corrective and no trend-changing moves.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.08 / 98.64

Daily chart's support levels: 96.97 / 95.74

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.16 / 97.60

H1 chart's support levels: 96.90 / 96.53

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.16, take profit is at 97.60, and stop loss is at 96.70.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 01, 2015

At daily chart, GBP/USD is looking to find a bottom around the level of 1.5199, where it could start to form consolidation patterns in favor of the overall bearish trend. During this week, we expect to see bounces until short-term resistances, such as the level of 1.5346. The 200 SMA is still favoring downside in this time frame.

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The short term-outlook is bearish and that's why we would like to enter short trades and no counter-trend trades. GBP/USD is still showing a very strong bearish structure which is pointing towards the next support around the level of 1.5158. The MACD remains in positive territory and fractals positions are still favoring the downside acceleration.

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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5346 / 1.5543

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5199 / 1.5090

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5358 / 1.5443

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5259 / 1.5158

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5259, take profit is at 1.5158, and stop loss is at 1.5358.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 1 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The former top at 1.5405 has been broken and after a minor correction in red wave iv more upside is expected to extend towards at least 1.5512 and possibly even higher to 1.5644 if red wave v.

In the long term, I'm looking for much more upside movement towards at least 1.6310 and more likely wave (iii) will extend as wave (ii) was an expanded flat and therefore, we should be looking for a continuation higher to 1.7154 and maybe even higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.5080 and are going to move our stop 1.5240. If you are not long EUR yet, buy near 1.5330 with the same stop at 1.5240.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 1 - 2015

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Technical summary:

The impulsive rally from a low of 133.07 continues to unfold as expected. In the short term, we are looking for a move closer to resistance at 136.57 to end blue wave iii and call for a small correction in blue wave iv towards 135.86 and maybe even 135.47 before moving higher to 137.52.

As we are in a new impulsive rally, we should be looking for a continuation higher with the next major upside target at 144.03.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.20 and will move our stop higher to 135.25. If you are not long EUR yet, buy in the area around 135.47 - 135.86 with the stop at 135.25.

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