USD/CAD analysis for December 26, 2018

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 110.46. According to the H1 time frame, I have found that there is a strong downward trend and sellers are in control. In addition, I have found a breakout of the support trendline, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 110.15 and 109.15.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 26, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time frame, I found that there is a broken upward channel in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found strong supply in the background, which is another sign of the bearish momentum. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3,410 and $3,154.

Support/Resistance

$3,937 – Intraday resistance

$3,613 – Intraday support

$3,410 – Objective target 1

$3,154 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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EUR/USD analysis for December 26, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1381. According to the M15 time frame, I found that the price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found that there is a triple bottom, which is another sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1356.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on December 26. The pound remains in the channel

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The main task for the second half of the day remains to be a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.2714, which will lead to the formation of a larger upward trend with the update of the highs in the area of 1.2762 and 1.2808, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided in the area of 1.2668, however, to open long positions for rebound is best at the low of 1.2721.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2714, and the formation of a false breakdown will be a direct signal to the sales of the pound with access to the middle of the channel 1.2668, where the first profit taking will be. Larger sellers will count on updating the lower boundary of the channel in the area of 1.2621. In the case of growth above 1.2714 in the second half of the day, short positions can be considered to rebound from 1.2762 and 1.2808.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which more indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 26. Euro buyers are in no hurry to return to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Buyers failed to stay above the support of 1.1396 in the morning, which led to renewed pressure on the euro. You can count on long positions on the rebound from the large support of 1.1358, however, the main task will be to return and fix above the resistance of 1.1396, which will lead to a larger upward correction to the maximum of this week in the area of 1.1439, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

As long as trading is conducted below 1.1396, the pressure on the euro will continue. The absence of important fundamental statistics may save the bear market, which will lead EUR/USD to the area of 1.1358 minimum, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro rises above 1.1396, short positions can be opened immediately to rebound from a maximum of 1.1439.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30- and 50-day averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

If the euro rises in the second half of the day, it is best to return to sales from the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1427.

Video forecast for December 26

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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The dollar: the outcome of the year and what to expect in the coming

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The dollar ends the year on a minor note. In general, it is still considered the best currency for the outgoing 2018, but the last weeks, as they say, spoil the statistics. The American fell against most major currencies under pressure from a number of negative factors, including heightened concerns about a partial closure of the US government and tensions between the White House and the Fed.

In addition, the currency is under pressure from a drop in the yield of 10-year US government bonds in December by about 25 basis points, which means that the prospects for the dollar are becoming even bleaker. There is every reason to believe that the dollar will continue to decline, but the yen, on the contrary, will become the main contender for replacement in these turbulent times. The dollar has already lost to her for eight consecutive sessions, the growing risks in the financial markets have benefited the Japanese currency and have a negative effect on the dynamics of the dollar.o4ED-Y9p1AAzf_7rp35B5oUz69JLpA4cn71mwlvE

In recent months, the dollar has struggled hard to get rid of the growing list of bear factors, including speculation about future US interest rates, declining bond yields, and falling oil prices. Despite this, the Fed raised rates for the fourth time this year and generally intends to adhere to its plans to raise rates next year, despite heightened economic risks. As a result, US President Donald Trump has intensified criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and this public conflict has caused investor discontent. The partial closure of the US government also heightened their fears about growth prospects

If the dollar recorded the New Year's appeal, it would not have to say that "the outgoing year was difficult for us," it had no special reason to complain about the 2018th, but it was worth worrying that the coming year would.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 26, 2018

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs have been demonstrated below the depicted H4 downtrend line around the price levels of 1.2870 and 1.2780.

Shortly after, before a quick bullish recovery on December 12, there was a quick bearish decline towards the price level of 1.2500.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart with a neckline located around 1.2660-1.2680. Bullish persistence above 1.2660-1.2680 is mandatory for confirmation. Pattern confirmation projects a bullish target towards 1.2880 again.

Friday's price action demonstrates the recent bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend line. This enhances the bullish side of the market as well.

Please take into consideration that the current bullish movement towards the price zone of 1.2680-1.2700 should be watched cautiously as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range.

Bullish breakout above 1.2680-1.2700 is needed to continue further bullish advancement towards 1.2880 where there is the upper border of the previous consolidation range.

On the other hand, the current scenario may develop as a bearish flag pattern provided that the bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to the daily low) is maintained on a daily basis. The projected target for the bearish flag pattern is located around 1.2300.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 26, 2018

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Technical outlook:

Here you can see an hourly chart for the short-term trading setup. Please note that the EUR/USD pair has been consolidating since the last 2-3 trading sessions as depicted on the chart. It can be seen that the single currency is currently trading near the support zone of consolidation at the 1.1386 levels. In order to test the 1.1350 level, it is necessary to rally one more time to the resistance zone of the consolidation before dropping lower again. Please pay attention that 1.1350/60 is defined as support zone, since the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally between the level of 1.1270 and 1.1485 is passing through. Ideally, the EUR/USD pair is expected to bounce from the above levels and proceed through the 1.1620 levels as demonstrated on the chart. For this structure to hold true, the prices should stay above the 1.1270 support as highlighted here.

Trading plan:

Long positions should be opened from the 1.1350/60 levels with a stop order at 1.1270, and the target of at least 1.1620.

Good luck!

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY for December 26

Large-scale graphics:

The main vector of the price movement of the cross this year since February is set by the downward wave. The first parts (A-B) are completely formed in the movement structure.

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Medium scale graphics:

On November 8, the bear wave started, which began in the larger model the final phase of the movement. The movement has a pronounced pulse character.

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Small-scale graphics:

Beginning December 13, the bearish area ends the wave of the hourly scale. In the upcoming weekly period, the likelihood of a short-term price rebound remains, after which the decline will continue.

Forecast and recommendations:

The cross trend is directed downwards and attempts to trade against it will only lead to a loss of funds on the deposit. For traders in the coming weeks, the most reasonable tactic will be to sell the instrument from any counter kickbacks.

Resistance zones:

- 141.10 / 141.60

Support areas:

- 137.50 / 137.00

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Technical analysis for US Dollar Index for December 26, 2018

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Technical outlook:

An hourly chart view is presented here for a short-term outlook on the US Dollar Index. Since the last few trading sessions, due to the lack of liquidity, the US Dollar Index has been consolidating in a cone formation as highlighted on the chart. At the moment, the prices are seen to be trading at the 96.77 level, close to the resistance line. It may drop lower towards the support line of consolidation before pushing higher towards the 97.10 level, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the previous drop between the level of 97.71 and 96.20, respectively. If the prices manage to reach the level of 97.10, it should be considered as an opportunity to open short positions at the 97.71 level. Bears are expected to remain in control until the prices stay below the 97.71 level, while going forward.

Trading plan:

Short positions should be opened between the 97.00/10 levels with a stop order above 97.71, and the target of at least 95.00.

Good luck!

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Simplified wave analysis of AUD / USD for December 26

Large-scale graphics:

Since January, the main trend direction is looking at the "south" of the chart. Towards the main trend in the last 3 months developing oncoming traffic.drANxSqwPyoA88haALTqgAJGoXOXVPq2OPo8ijndMedium scale graphics:

The rising wave from October 5 formed a correction (B) in the larger wave structure.kwuqEVwW13pnxphMV3vTRf3hBo6tdnUcudge5EUISmall-scale graphics:

The wave level of the decline that started on December 3 has a reversal potential. In due course all movement will pass to higher TF. In the coming days, a short-term flat rate rise is possible.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming weeks, a rather strong drop in the price of the major is expected. For all trading styles at the ends of oncoming kickbacks, it is recommended to look for signals to enter short positions.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7150 / 0.7200

Support areas:

- 0.7080 / 0.7030

- 0.6830 / 0.6780

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 26, 2018

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a highly probable Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was necessary to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated a significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped between the price levels of 1.1420 and 1.1270 waiting for a breakout since November 5.

On Friday, based on the recent price action, there was another bearish engulfing daily candlestick around the price level of 1.1420. This enhances the bearish trend of the market towards 1.1270 in the short term.

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Technical analysis for Gold for December 26, 2018

Gold price, as expected, made new highs towards the upper border of the bullish channel, in which it has been since August. We will probably see a greater uptrend towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The bearish divergence mentioned in the previous posts have been canceled, so the uptrend remains strong.

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Green lines - bullish channel

Maximum and minimum values of the Gold price are getting higher and higher. The price is moving to new highs and has already reached the area of $1,270. Trend remains bullish as long as the price is above the $1,250-45 area. The resistance is at $1,274 and then at $1,285-90, where there is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area.

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US currency remains under pressure

On Wednesday, December 26, the US dollar remains under pressure after markets opened that did not work the day before because of the celebration of Catholic Christmas. On Tuesday, the American market held the worst trading session in the history of Christmas Eve. The largest indices, such as the S & P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, are significantly cheaper. At the moment, a decline of 0.5% is shown on Asian trading platforms.

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Market participants are concerned about the temporary suspension of the US government, as well as tensions between President Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve. Anxiety caused by the high probability of a global economic downturn led to a drop in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds by 25 basis points. This negatively affects the rate of the American currency, experts emphasized. According to Sim Moh, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, the Japanese currency will be the main beneficiary of the global risk aversion.

During eight consecutive trading sessions, the US dollar is depreciating against the yen. Reduced risk appetite increases the demand for safe-haven assets that support the yen, analysts say.

In addition to the fall in oil prices, the budget crisis in the United States adds to the negative global market. In the United States, experts record a complete discrepancy between the expectations of financial markets and the state of the American economy. Despite the strong statistics, market participants are confident in its further deterioration. Investors' fears are aggravated by the growth of political risks, which include the suspension of government work, the instability of the Fed's actions, and Donald Trump's inability to negotiate with the US Congress.

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Trading Plan 12/26/2018

Important news before the New Year is not expected.

The market digests a sharp drop in the US stock market and oil in December: What is it? Deep correction or the first signs of a crisis?

Christmas sales in the United States show the highest level over a period of many years.

Euro: There is a two-month range. It is very likely for it to breakthrough and the beginning of the movement.

We are ready to buy from 1.1485.

We are ready to sell from 1.1350.

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USD / CAD: Oil pulls Canadians to the bottom

The Canadian dollar paired with the American currency is rapidly becoming cheaper. On the eve of the Catholic Christmas, the USD/CAD pair still entered the 36th figure - for the first time since April last year. The price has broken the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on all timeframes without exception, confirming the strength of the upward movement. Now the task of the bulls is to gain a foothold in the area of the 36th figure and rise to at least 1.3650. In turn, the bears have to restrain the onslaught of buyers against the background of the dynamics of the oil market. In general, it is the oil market that will determine the future prospects of the Loonie, given the high correlation of USD/CAD with oil prices.

Today, a barrel of Brent oil has set another anti-record as the cost of raw materials dropped to $ 50.45 - the last time the price at such bottoms was in June 2017. The pre-Christmas trading session consolidated all the negatives of the previous days. The oil market fell, despite certain positive signals following the stock market. Over the weekend, some OPEC + participants expressed their intention to extend the Vienna agreement on limiting oil production until the end of next year, and if necessary, to revise its conditions by increasing the volume down to 1.5 million barrels per day. However, it should be noted that the oil traders were skeptical of these words since even the agreement reached (which provides for a reduction of 1.2 million b / c) was achieved with big obstacles. Therefore, the likelihood of such ambitious plans at the moment is minimal.

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According to a number of experts, Monday's price fluctuations were speculative, as in the pre-holiday periods there is often anomalous volatility in the "thin" market. This is partly true, but there are also objective factors that put pressure on oil quotes. For example, in the USA the number of oil rigs has increased again - by 10 pieces. At the same time, oil production in the United States remains at the level of 11.6 million barrels per day, and the level of reserves of "black gold" almost did not change over the past week (441.5 million barrels), although experts expected a significant decline in this indicator. In other words, the market is still concerned that demand will lag significantly behind supply - at least, now there are all the prerequisites for such an imbalance.

However, not only the above factors are pushing oil quotes down. Traders are seriously concerned about the latest developments in the United States. This is the pre-Christmas stock market crash, and the "shutdown", as well as, Trump's aggressive criticism of the Fed. Against the background of a possible slowdown in the growth of the global economy, these factors put downward pressure on the oil market. General nervousness affects the mood of oil traders who are deprived of any support from fundamental factors. In particular, market participants on the eve of Christmas were actively emerging from risky assets due to the high probability of a crisis developing in the US stock market. On Monday, the Dow Jones index fell by 2.91% (to 21,792.2 points), the S&P 500 index fell by 2.71% (to 2.351.1 points) and the NASDAQ decreased by 2.21% (to 6,192.92 points).

It is worth noting that such a dynamic is not due to any one reason: the stock market, similar to the oil market, was under the cumulative pressure of many circumstances. Among them are unclear prospects for trade relations between the US and China, and further increases in the Fed's interest rates despite the actual slowdown in tightening in 2019 and the risk of a slowdown in the global economy, which resulted to a slowdown in the US economy. The third-quarter US GDP growth rate last week was already revised downward to 3.4%, but many experts expect a more substantial decline in the first two quarters of 2019. Actually, the Fed has lowered its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation next year, so there is no point in feeding any illusions here.

The political crisis in the USA (in the form of a shutdown) only aggravates the general fundamental picture. According to the American press, negotiations between Democrats and Republicans on the allocation of funds for the construction of the border wall have stalled. This means that the partial suspension of government work will be extended until January of next year, when the Congress will meet in a new composition.

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Thus, the oil market is unlikely to demonstrate a more or less large-scale correction in the coming days. Price fluctuations are quite likely but the probability of a sustainable recovery of the market is extremely small. This suggests that any corrective pullback of USD/CAD can still be used to open long positions. From the technical point of view, all trend indicators on all timeframes warn about the continuation of the upward movement. The closest target of the northern movement is 1.3650 and the support level is the price of 1.3540, which corresponds to the Tenkan-sen line on the four-hour chart.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 26, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair broke resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 26, 2018

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.1421. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.1421, and the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.1421, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected three times confirming the uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1421 and 1.1550. So, the support stands at 1.1421, while daily resistance is found at 1.1550. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.1421. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above the spot of 1.1421 with the first target at the level of 1.1550; and then towards 1.1603. However, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1550 today, the market will decline further to 1.1342.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for December 26. Wave pattern suggests a new decline

Wave counting analysis:

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No trades were held on Tuesday. The EUR / USD pair remained at the positions of the previous day. The current wave counting involves the construction of three waves correctional structure, which can already be completed. If this is true, the pair can resume the decline within the framework of the new downward trend section with targets located under the 12th figure from the current positions. A successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% according to Fibonacci will lead to the complication of the trend segment, which takes its beginning on November 12.

Sales targets:

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1471 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1528 - 127.2% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair has supposedly completed the construction of the wave with the entire upward trend section accordingly. If so, the decline in quotations will continue and I recommend cautious sales with targets located around 13 and 12 figures. A break of 1.1471 will indicate the readiness of the pair to complicate the uptrend and increase.

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GBP / USD pair. December 26th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Pound hid before the holidays

4 hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - down.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 166.7511

The GBP / USD currency pair moves with more characteristic for holidays. First, there is no high volatility. Secondly, there are no frequent turns and the so-called "wide flat". Thirdly, trading is calm without jerking. In the case of the European currency, there is no news. No messages from Theresa May regarding Brexit, no reports on the Brexit topic itself and no news from the British Parliament. Actually, this is not surprising since the parliament went on vacation, and Theresa May can only call on politicians to support her Brexit project. No information was received from the States either neither from Donald Trump, nor from the White House about the possible dismissal of Jerome Powell, about which rumors appeared a few days ago. Also, there is no important macroeconomic publications are planned for today. In this way, pound sterling reacts to holidays absolutely logical and logical. From a technical point of view, the pair continues a very moderate upward movement, as indicated by the purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator. However, it is absolutely clear to everyone that the future of the pound sterling depends only on the outcome of the Brexit vote in parliament, which will take place in mid-January.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,2695

S2 - 1,2665

S3 - 1.2634

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2726

R2 - 1.2756

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD pair broke the Murray's level "8/8".Thus, it is recommended to consider long positions with targets 1.2726 and 1.2756 but in small lots, as trading on holidays is associated with increased risks.

Shorts will become relevant no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average line with targets 1.2604 and 1.2573. However, over the next week, the overcoming of MA will not necessarily mean a change in trend.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is a blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 26, 2018

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The EUR/JPY pair is declining and should now be below the minor resistance at 126.75 to continue its movement towards the long-term target seen at 123.66.

In the short term, we see support near 125.88, which may make the first test for a corrective rally close to resistance at 126.75, and this rally will probably include another decline towards at least 125.20 and then towards the perfect target seen at 123.66.

R3: 126.75

R2: 126.25

R1: 125.92

Pivot: 125.62

S1: 125.31

S2: 125.20

S3: 124.89

Trading recommendation:

We are short from 128.05 and we will move our stop lower to 127.05.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 26. The pair is preparing for a reversal?

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Wave counting analysis:

On December 25, the currency markets were closed, therefore, the GBP / USD pair did not gain and did not lose a single point. At the same time, the instrument continues to be within the framework of the construction of an uptrend trend, presumably as part of wave 2 or b. If this is true, then an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci grid built on the size of the first wave can lead to its completion and the resumption of the decline with targets under the 25th figure.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.2742 - 38.2% of Fibonacci

1.2825 - 50.0% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.2475 - 0.0% of Fibonacci

1.2229 - 323.6% of Fibonacci (senior grid)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair GBP / USD may complete in the near future the construction of 3 ascending structure. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1.2742 will indicate the pair's readiness for a new decline, and I will recommend new sales within the expected wave 3 or with targets located below the 25th figure.

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EUR / USD. December 26th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Holidays continue, there is no fundamental data

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: -2.2165

The EUR / USD currency pair on Wednesday, December 26, started trading slightly above the moving average line, but could not immediately overcome the Murray level of "6/8" - 1.1414. Apart from the fact that the market is now extremely sensitive, that is, it can react very strongly to any news, there are very few fundamental events themselves. Thus, the option with a flat up until January 2-3 is very likely. If the pair manages to consolidate above Murray's level of 6/8, the upward movement can continue today. From a fundamental point of view, there is absolutely nothing to note now. The calendar of macroeconomic events for today is absolutely empty. Tomorrow is about the same picture. Thus, it is hoped only for the receipt of any information from Donald Trump or the leaders of the European Union. In this case, quite strong movements are possible, as the market is sensitive during the holidays. Even if there is no frank flat with a drop in volatility, it is unlikely that the instrument will be able to form a trend in the coming week. Thus, from the current position it is even more preferable to move down with a preliminary consolidation below the moving average.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1383

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1.1322

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1444

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair maintains upward prospects. If the bulls manage to overcome the level of 1.1414, then it will be possible to open long positions with the first target of 1.1444, and then to the level of 1.1475.

Orders for sale can be considered no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average. In this case, the target for shorts will be the level of 1.1353, but in any case it is recommended to open positions in small lots.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for December 26th. The rise of the euro could end around 1.1446

4h

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The EUR / USD currency pair completed a quotation from the Fibo level of 23.6% - 1.1358 and a turn in favor of the European currency. As a result, on December 26, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correction level of 38.2% - 1.1446. Rebounding the pair's quotations from the Fibo level of 38.2% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 23.6%. There is no indicator of the emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair, after rebounding from the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.1285, continues the growth process in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Overcoming divergences today are not observed in any indicator. Rebounding the pair's quotes from the correction level of 100.0% will work in favor of the US currency and return to the Fibo level of 127.2%. Fixing the pair under the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD pair with a target of 1.1515 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair closes above 1.1446.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair rebounds the correction level of 1.1446 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for December 26th. The pound closed above side range

4h

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The GBP / USD currency pair on the 4-hour chart broke the upper limit of the lateral range but did not rise far above it. Since the next closing above the Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.2662 is completed, traders can count on continued growth towards the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2812. There are no emerging divergences today. Fixing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the American dollar and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2491.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair completed the fifth attempt to close above the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696. As a result, on December 26, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the correctional level of 76.4% - 1.2809. Fixing quotes under the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.2566. Maturing divergences today on the current schedule is not observed.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.2809 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 100.0%, as the pair completed closing above the correction level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

Sales of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out with a target of 1.2566 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 100.0% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2696 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the European session on December 26. Bears received stop orders

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

On Monday, the bulls walked over stop orders from bears above the resistance of 1.2705, but they did not manage to form a larger uptrend. The main task for today's first half of the day will be a breakthrough and consolidation above 1.2714, which will lead to the formation of a larger uptrend with updating highs around 1.2762 and 1.2808, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided by the area of 1.2668, however, to open long positions for rebound is best at the low of 1.2721.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.2714, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be a direct signal to the sales of the pound with access to the middle of the channel of 1.2668, where the first profit-taking will be. Larger sellers will count on updating the lower boundary of the channel in the area of 1.2621. In the case of growth above 1.2714 in the first half of the day, short positions can be considered to rebound from 1.2762 and 1.2808.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted just above the 30-day and 50-day moving average, with a short-term advantage of buyers of the British pound.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.2637, from which you can open low positions immediately to rebound. The upward trend may be limited by the upper limit of the channel 1.2740, from where pound sellers will return to the market.WGqTCrrgBrX7OrFnqkOlg7ijEclGmDJBhlk9XROpDescription of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / CHF for December 26

Large-scale graphics:

At the end of the downward wave of daily scale, correcting a part of the global trend, from the beginning of September, a potential reversal bull construction began to form.

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Medium scale graphics:

The price reduction that began on October 22 formed the middle part (B) in the model of the older TF.

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Small-scale graphics:

Since December 11, a potential reversal wave has been formed in the corridor between the oncoming zones. After the completion of the current decline, the initial framework structure (AB) for the price rise will be created.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the side flat, the conditions for changing the direction of the short-term trend are formed on the cross chart. Prior to the appearance of reversal signals on working TF, entry into trade transactions is not recommended.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1340 / 1.1390

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: plan for the European session on December 26. Euro buyers do not have enough strength

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Only the formation of a false breakdown at the support level of 1.1396 will lead to the resumption of demand for the euro and the renewal of the larger resistance of 1.1439. The main goal for long positions in euros will be the return and consolidation above 1.1439, which will lead to a test of maximum 1.1471 and 1.1515. In the case of a decrease in EUR / USD under the support level of 1.1396, it is best to look at long positions for a rebound from 1.1358.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Important data today does not come out, which can return to the market of bears. To do this, it is necessary to break through and gain a foothold under the support level of 1.1396, which will lead to a larger sale to the area of 1.1358 and 1.1324, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of an upward correction in the first half of the day, it is best to sell the euro after an unsuccessful fixing above 1.1439 or to rebound from a larger resistance of 1.1471.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel before a large weekend.

Bollinger bands

The upward trend is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.1430 and from which you can see sales. In the event of a decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1385.vYoEcLwnwz9vZ67ChyLXCHVckTWPihTc3QfJHjBDDescription of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of GBP / USD for December 26

Large-scale graphics:

The dominant trend direction of the pound since April, sets the downward wave. From the potential reversal, zone formed a wave of counter correction. In recent months, the trend has continued.

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Medium scale graphics:

The bearish wave of November 7 gave rise to the final section (C) of the main model. In recent weeks, the price is adjusted.

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Small-scale graphics:

The preliminary potential of the ascending phase of December 12 is close to exhaustion. Reached preliminary target area. Signal reversal on the chart is not observed.

Forecast and recommendations:

The current price increase is directed against the main trend, so purchases are extremely risky. It is necessary to wait for signals of completion of the entire bull wave, after which it is recommended to track the signals of the sale of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.2710 / 1.2760

Support areas:

- 1.2500 / 1.2450

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted, the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review for December 26, 2018 for the EUR / USD pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, a downward movement is possible, but in the side channel, with the first target of 1.1384, a rolling level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion: On Wednesday, a downward movement is possible, in the side channel, with the first target of 1.1384 - a recoiling level of 38.2% (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What is the coming year brewing for us?

Activity on the global financial markets fell noticeably during the pre-Christmas week that began when most of the trading floors closed.

Summing up the outgoing 2018, it can be noted that it was not easy for the global economy and, in our opinion, turning. First of all, the start of full-scale trade wars by US President D. Trump against all of its trading partners without exception was a negative surprise. The most visible and vivid were the "combat" trading actions against Europe, Canada, Mexico, and China. If in respect of the first Trump considers himself and the States winners, then with the PRC the trade blitzkrieg did not work out and gradually turned into a positional "war", the prospects for the end of which are not yet clear. It was this event that became the catalyst that led to the collapse in world markets and forced investors to recall that in the economic process there are not only booms but also recessions, turning into crises.

The first signals of slowing the global economy began to manifest themselves in the summer of the outgoing year. The economies of the United States, China, and the eurozone, and they are the largest in the world, have begun to show a slowdown in economic growth, which has worsened in the wake of the trade confrontation between Washington and Beijing. Almost a ten-year economic cycle, we believe, is coming to an end. And here, the eccentric presidency of D. Trump can only be viewed as a kind of catalyst, which only helped to show the status of the global economy and nothing more. On the contrary, his tax reform helped delay for some time the process of slowing the growth of the American economy, and the trade war with China, its potential vulnerability.

Evaluating the entire process, we believe that the fall in US stock indices, and after them, other global ones, will continue against the background of the main reasons described above, therefore we consider it necessary to continue to "short" the American stock market. With regard to the prospects for the foreign exchange market, then on the general wave of pessimism, as well as real uncertainty factors, we should speak about the continued growth in demand for defensive assets, including the Japanese yen and the dollar. In the wake of falling demand for commodity assets, we assume a further fall in commodity and commodity exchange rates. We believe that the decision of OPEC + to support prices by reducing crude oil production is unlikely to be effective due to the main negative, slowing down the global economy, which will naturally reduce the demand for commodity and commodity assets. As for the currency pairs EUR / USD and GBP / USD, they will most likely continue to consolidate while waiting for the UK to leave the EU.

Forecast of the day:

The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below 110.75. We believe that avoiding the risk will further push the pair down to the level of 109.60.

The currency pair USD / CAD is above the level of 1.3560. If she stays higher than him, there is a chance that the pair will continue to rise in the wake of the resumption of the fall in oil prices to 1.3785.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR / USD as of December 26, 2018

EUR / USD

Western Christmas ends. Today Europe is still resting, but the United States is opening. In the thin market, only one "special operation" was carried out, from December 24, oil was pushed through this morning by 5.98%. But this is enough for investors to continue to look at the American dollar without hesitation. The only question is when exactly the dollar will continue to strengthen the medium-term. But, I think, within 10 days.

If such a decline comes closer to the end of the term we have defined, the euro may rise to the range of 1.1526 / 75, if at the beginning, the reversal may begin today, as the price found resistance from the embedded trend line of the price channel on the daily chart.

But the actual signal for a medium-term decline will be price fixing below the December 21 low (1.1356), which will mean that the price has disappeared below the balance line on the daily timeframe and under the Kruzenshtern line on the four-hour chart.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP / USD as of December 26, 2018

GBP / USD

The British pound continues chaotic movements with a general upward trend during the fine holiday market. The price has reached the resistance of the trend line of the price channel of the daily timeframe and almost reached the balance line. On the four-hour chart, a double price divergence with Marlin oscillator was formed. It is likely that the decline in the pound will begin today. On the practical side, it makes sense to consider the decline of the British currency after fixing the price under the Kruzenshtern line on H4 in the region of 1.2622, but far enough from it, about 80 points, which forces traders to take an observer position. In the case of the development of this main scenario, the goal is to support the trend line around 1.2500.

In the case of a breakout pound up target range stands at 1.2810 / 90.

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Breaking forecast 12/26/2018

The market opened quietly after the Christmas holiday in the USA and Europe.

The EURUSD rate remains in the long range.

Probable breakthrough range and the beginning of the movement.

The entry level is 1.1485.

There is a new level for entry down 1.1350. Stop 1.1395. Objective 1. 1100.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

American investment banks have worsened forecasts for oil prices in 2019

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Banking experts at Wall Street revised downward the forecasts for oil prices in 2019, reports The Wall Street Journal.

Representatives of 13 investment banks that took part in a recent survey conducted by the WSJ, predict that the average cost of Brent black gold next year will be $ 69 per barrel, not $ 77, as was previously expected, in November. Estimate for WTI crude was lowered from $ 70 to $ 63 a barrel.

It is reported that the deterioration of the "oil" expectations of bank analysts was due to fears associated with a weakening of demand and excess production of hydrocarbons at the global level.

In early October, oil prices reached their highest levels in four years, but since then they have sunk more than 30%. Even the new OPEC + agreements on the reduction of raw materials production could not stop the drop in prices.

"It is assumed that next year will be no less difficult for the oil market than the outgoing one, primarily because the growth rate of the global economy is slowing down, which may weaken the demand for black gold," said Eugen Weinberg, head of research commodity market at Commerzbank AG.

"However, I believe that in 2019, OPEC + will still be able to restore the balance of supply and demand in the oil market," he added.

"Reductions in the production of black gold by OPEC +, restrictions on oil production in Canada, as well as a further reduction in Iranian exports due to sanctions, probably should be enough for the raw materials reserves in developed countries to return to values below the average for five years", noted Jason Gammel, an analyst at the Jefferies Group.

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in October oil reserves increased by 5.7 million barrels, to 2.9 billion barrels, reaching a peak from January 2018.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCAD 12/26/18

Last week, the pair went beyond the monthly short-term of December. This indicates the strength of the upward momentum, however, purchases from the current levels have ceased to be profitable, as the probability of forming a corrective model and returning to the limits of the monthly short circuit increases.

The current growth of the pair remains a medium-term impulse, which involves repeated updates of local highs. A sharp stop in growth is possible due to the fact that the pair went beyond the monthly short-term. The probability of returning to the limits of the December monthly short-term is 90%. This involves finding a pattern to sell the instrument. Sell from the current sessional marks without absorption does not make sense, because the momentum is quite strong and the size of the stop can be determined.

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In the current pre-holiday market, it is quite difficult to determine the moment of a stop for correction, so you should wait for the breakdown of one of the younger control zones. Until then, it is not recommended to sell the instrument.

An alternative model of continuing growth without returning to the monthly short-term limit is 10%, which makes purchases from the current levels extremely unprofitable at a distance. It is important to note that the current growth of the pair is supported by a decline in oil prices. As long as this instrument forms a downward momentum, the pairs that correlate with oil will continue to move in the direction of weakening relative to the US dollar.

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Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Trump: The Fed, the only problem of the American economy

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According to US President Donald Trump, the only important issue for the American economy is the actions of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS).

The head of the White House believes that it is irrational actions on the part of the regulator that create problems for the US economy. "The Fed does not feel the market, does not understand the need for trade wars or the strengthening of the dollar," D. Trump said.

The Bloomberg agency, citing informed sources, stated that the American leader was dissatisfied with the Fed's decision to increase the interest rate. In connection with the above, the head of the White House admits the possibility of dismissal of the regulator's chairman Jerome Powell.

Recall that at the last meeting, which took place on December 18-19 of this year, the Fed, as expected, raised the base interest rate to 2.25-2.5%. This increase is the fourth in a row for 2018. According to the plans of the regulator, in the next year, two more rates are expected to rise.

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