Brent ignores Donald Trump

Looking at how sensitively the currency and stock markets react to his twitter, Donald Trump decided to try the strength of his voice on raw materials. According to the US President, in circumstances when the storage facilities are flooded with oil to the very ears, OPEC artificially maintains very high prices. Brent and WTI reacted by a decrease of approximately $1 per barrel for each of the grades, but then quickly regained lost positions, returning to the highest level since November 2014. That is, those times when the cartel decided to cut production in order to stabilize the market. After 3.5 years, its effectiveness became apparent.

Success did not come immediately, but only after Russia and other producers joined the OPEC treaty. As a result of hard work and fulfillment of their obligations, global reserves returned to the levels of their 5-year averages. At the same time, the cartel has not yet given a single signal about its intention to curtail the deal, and Saudi Arabia claims that the world economy is able to withstand oil at a price of $75 per barrel.

Implementation of commitments by the OPEC countries

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Whatever Riyadh was thinking, judging by Donald Trump's twitter, Washington is already beginning to show concern. States actively import oil, which increases the deficit of their trade balance. And it is the state of foreign trade that the US president is obsessed with, which is proven by the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum. The owner of the White House has the opportunity to moderate the appetites of the "bulls" by Brent and WTI, who recently feel too freely (the ratio of long and short positions in the North Sea grade is 14 to 1). In order to do this, he needs the help of US shale producers. According to Wood Mackenzie's research, in order to generate free cash flow, these companies needed a price of $53 per barrel for the Texan grade. At the moment, it costs $69, so they have the opportunity to introduce new drilling rigs at their own expense.

In fact, not everything is so simple. First, shale producers face difficulties in increasing production, including the limited capacity of pipelines, the presence of intermediary companies and the need for consolidation in the industry. Secondly, the rise in prices leads to the emergence of petrodollars in the producing countries, which then enter the world economy and increase demand. These factors allow Goldman Sachs to predict a continuation of the Brent rally in the direction of $82.5 per barrel.

Let Donald Trump blame OPEC for the high price of oil, in fact, it was not without its intervention. OANDA believes that if Washington returns sanctions against Iran, the prices will rise by another $5.

Technically, the implementation of the target by 200% for the subsidiary of AB = CD and the formation of the "Three Indians" pattern increase the risks of rollback. Nevertheless, while quotes of Brent are above $72, the situation is completely controlled by the bulls.

Brent, daily chart

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 24, 2018

Bitcoin has been impulsive with the bullish gains recently. There was no significant deeper pullback to indicate any bearish intervention along the way. The bitcoin price is currently residing above the $9,300 price area after recently taking out the $8,500 with a daily close. Since the downtrend start in December 2017, this is the first time the price has been successful with consistent impulsive bullish pressure rallying over $2,500. As of the current scenario, the price has breached the Kumo Cloud which was expected to act as strong resistance for the price to push higher. Currently the price is expected to proceed towards $10,000 in the coming days and if the price succeeds to break above $10,000 with a daily close, further bullish pressure is expected with targets towards $11,500 in the future. As the price remains above the $7,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 24, 2018

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All our upside target which we predicted in the previous analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is still expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair accelerated on the upside after breaking above the upper boundary of the rising channel. Both rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages play support roles. The relative strength index shows upward momentum. Hence, as long as 108.50 is not broken, look for a further advance with targets at 109.40 and 109.80 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 108.50, take profit at 109.40.

Resistance levels: 109.40, 109.80, and 110.15

Support levels: 108.25, 107.90, and 107.50.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 24, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400. This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the depicted uptrend remains broken to the downside.

The depicted Multiple-Top pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

Trade Recommendation:

Short-term traders can wait for a pullback towards (1.2315) to have a SELL trade. S/L should be placed just above Friday's high (1.2365). T/P levels should be located around 1.2195 and 1.2080.

Risky traders can wait for bearish closure below 1.2190 as a valid SELL signal. T/P levels should be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 24, 2018

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USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish outlook. The pair remains bullish above its horizontal support at 0.9745, and is likely to challenge the next resistance at 0.9820. The relative strength index is also positive above its neutrality area at 50. In addition, the rising 50-period moving average plays a support role, and should continue to push the prices higher to 0.9820 and 0.9850 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9745, take profit at 0.9820.

Resistance levels: 0.9820, 0.9850, and 0.9885

Support levels: 0.9705, 0.9665, and 0.9620.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for April 24, 2018

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The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during the previous week's consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred yesterday.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

Today, the price zone of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) stands as a significant supply zone to be watched for a valid SELL entry if any bullish pullback occurs.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 24, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $9.266. In a little more than three weeks time the Bitcoin (BCH) network will hard fork by upgrading its block size to 32MB and incorporate additional functionalities to the protocol. Currently, the entire community is steadily preparing for the consensus change as development teams release new code, while users and infrastructure providers upgrade their full node implementations. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, I found that price reached and broke my first short-term objective target at 8.966, which is a sign that demand is very strong. Most recently, I found a bullish breakout of the ascending triangle pattern, which is another confirmation of the strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The next upward targets are set at the price of $9.805 and at the price of $11.600.

Support/Resistance

$9.270 – Intraday resistance

$9.000– Intraday support

$9.805– Objective target 1

$11.600 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for April 24, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,321.90. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential end of a bullish corrective phase, which is a sign that buying looks risky. The trend is still bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,319.45 and at the price of $1,305.20.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,332.77

R2: $1,340.82

R3: $1,346.15

Support levels:

S1: $1,319.40

S2: $1,314.08

S3: $1,306.04

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 24/04/2018

The Ifo index fell in April to 102.1 points against 103.2 points (after revision) a month earlier. This indicator fell for the fifth month in a row, signaling a slowdown in growth in the German economy. The Ifo index is an indicator measuring the mood of German managers and is considered as a leading indicator of the economic situation in the largest economy in Europe.

It is worth noting, however, that in April the method of calculating the Ifo index changed. After the changes, the result for March was revised down from 114.7 points. up to 103.3 points. The main change consists in adding a service sector to the study. Previously, Ifo conducted research only among managers of industrial, construction and commercial companies. Secondly, the data aggregation method has been modified and the reference year has been changed. Thirdly, the sample size was increased - now the study is carried out on a group of approximately 9,000 enterprises, or two thousand more than it used to be.

After statistical modifications, April was the fifth consecutive fall in the Ifo index. Event the early reading in March suggested that the mood in German business is getting worse. In particular, the rapidly decreasing subindex of expectations was worrying, which was accompanied by a very high assessment of the current economic situation. In April, the mood of German financial experts also deteriorated. These may be the first symptoms of the economic slowdown in Germany after they experienced a boom phase last year. "The spirit in German business has deteriorated. The German economy slows down." wrote Ifo CEO Clemens Fuest. Despite the worse than expected data, not too many analysts are lowering economic forecasts for Germany just yet. The International Monetary Fund estimates this year's GDP growth at 2.5%.

Let's now take a look at the German DAX Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. Lower than expected and surprisingly low (if someone did not know about changing the methodology for its preparation) the Ifo index led to a significant weakening of the Euro against the Dollar, but the DAX index seems to be quite content with the results anyway. The market is trading just at the recent swing high at the level of 12,641 after a bounce from the technical support at the level of 12,464. Nevertheless, the weak momentum and overbought market conditions are indicating a possible termination of this short-term rally.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 24, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3919. Anyway, according to the M15 time frame, I found a potential end of the bullish corrective phase (ABC), which is a sign that buying looks risky. The trend is still bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3865.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4005

R2: 1.4070

R3: 1.4110

Support levels:

S1: 1.3900

S2: 1.3860

S3: 1.3795

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 24, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.9767.

On the H4 chart. The major support is seen at the level of 0.9710.

the level of 0.9710 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend.

Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100).

Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside.

Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.9767 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.9792.

If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.9792, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.9831 in order to test the daily resistance 1.

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Global macro overview for 24/04/2018

US debt yields have once again become the center of attention when new yield maxima for 10-year bonds have been established, dangerously close to the 3.0% level barrier. Its violation threatens with a panic sale and a rapid increase in the level of 3.05%, which really is much more important from the point of view of quotation prospects.

Investors returned to the foundations, or signs of inflationary pressure decrease in the US and a record supply of US government bonds, which in the next years will be placed on the market. This allowed, of course, a few days without new controversial entries by Donald Trump on Twitter and some tension on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East or trade relations with China. The US Dollar is clearly supported by the developments in the interest rate market. USD/JPY skyrocketed around unlisted since February and approached 109.00, EUR/USD declined to a key zone below 1.22, where the lower limit of the 1.2150 - 1.2550 fluctuation band, which has been in force for many weeks, is still present. In the case this pair, the key is the fact that data from the Eurozone economy in recent weeks clearly disappointed and point to the weakening of the upward economic momentum. With the simultaneous weakening of price pressure, it finally undermined investors' belief that the European Central Bank is moving rapidly and reliably towards standardization of its policy. As a result, this time the German yield curve did not move after the US, which translated into movement on the FX market driven by a channel of relative profitability. Moreover, another proof of deterioration in business sentiment was provided by today's weak IFO reading - the sub-index reflecting expectations was released at the level of 102.1, which was worse than the November maximum of 103.7 points. It is not a catastrophic reading, nevertheless, the downtrend in the sentiment starts to be too obvious to deny it now and it will soon find the reflection in the market behavior.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the Ifo data were published. The market has broken through the technical support at the level of 1.2215 and made a new local low at 1.2180, but the most important technical support at the level of 1.2154 still holds. Moreover, the market is clearly trading in oversold conditions as indicated by Stochastic oscillator and RSI, so a move upward might happen any time soon. The nearest short-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2238, but the key level for bull is still seen at the level of 1.2298.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for April 24, 2018

After a series of impulsive bearish candles bouncing off the 1.4375 area, GBP/USD is currently showing some bullish intervention to proceed with certain retrace along the way before continuing its bearish trend. GBP has been struggling with the worse economic reports published recently whereas USD gained momentum last week with positive reports showing development in the housing sectors. Today GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing report was published with positive result of a deficit of -0.3B from the previous figure of -0.4B which was expected to increase to 1.1B and CBI Industrial Orders Expectations report was published unchanged as expected at 4. On the USD side today, CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 126.00 from the previous figure of 127.7, New Home Sales is expected to increase to 625k from the previous figure of 618k and Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to increase as well to 16 from the previous figure of 15. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to continue its bearish impulsive pressure in the future but certain retracement is expected along the way as upcoming USD economic reports are expected to have dovish outcomes.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 1.3950 support area from where it is expected to push higher towards 1.4050-1.41 resistance area before showing further bearish pressure in the pair. The price has already breached the recently higher low after the Bearish Divergence which does indicate the successful counter momentum the pair has completed. As the price remains below 1.4050-1.41 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 24, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair has dropped sharply from the level of 0.7302 towards 0.7101. Now, the price is set at 0.7126. Also, it should be noted that the price of 0.7154 acts as a daily pivot point, and volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.7209 and 0.7101 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.7209 and 0.7259, which coincides with the 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the NZD/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.7152/0.7209. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.7152/0.7209 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.7152, sell below 0.7152 or 0.7209 with the first targets at 0.7068 and 0.7035. However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 0.7302.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for April 24, 2018

USD/JPY is currently residing inside the resistance area of 108.50-109.20 from where it is expected to push lower in the coming days. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair since last week's positive economic reports were published. Recently USD Existing Home Sales report was published with an increase to 5.60M from the previous figure of 5.54M which was expected to have a slight increase to 5.55M. The positive economic report did help the currency to sustain the bullish momentum in the pair whereas some volatility may be injected today with the upcoming economic reports. Today, USD CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 126.00 from the previous figure of 127.7, New Home Sales is expected to increase to 625k from the previous figure of 618k and Richmond Manufacturing Index is expected to increase as well to 16 from the previous figure of 15. On the other hand, today JPY SPPI report was published with a decrease to 0.5% as expected from the previous value of 0.7% and BOJ Core CPI was also published with a decrease to 0.7% as expected from the previous value of 0.8%. Ahead of the Unemployment Rate, BOJ Monetary Policy Statement along with BOJ Policy Rate and Tokyo Core CPI report to be published on Friday this week, certain worse economic reports are quite unexpected for a better growth of the currency for the coming days. As of the current scenario, USD is expected to continue its dominating behavior over JPY as certain high impact USD economic reports are going to be published this week whereas the positive economic reports are currently fueling the bullish gains in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the resistance area of 108.50 to 109.20 area where the price action has turned quite slow and steady after an impulsive bullish pressure yesterday. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is way lower towards 107.50 area where the price is expected to retrace back before proceeding much higher in the coming days. Currently, the price is expected to proceed lower off the resistance area with an objective to retrace for a certain period as of Bearish Continuation Divergence is in the process of forming currently. As the price remains above 106.80 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue to push the price higher after every retrace.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 24, 2018

EUR/JPY

Unlike its USD/JPY counterpart, this cross pair has not done much this week. Price did almost nothing last week, saving some consolidating movement throughout the week. The consolidation may continue this week, but a breakout is imminent, which would be directional on nature.

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A strong directional movement is expected any moment, which would most probably be in favor of bulls. On the other hand, there is another possibility of the price going bearish before the end of this week, because the outlook on the JPY pairs is somewhat bearish for the week. Swings in the market may thus be short-term or medium-term.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 24, 2018

USD/JPY

This currency trading instrument shot skywards on April 23, 2018.The market gained 138 pips that day alone, moving above the demand level at 108.50 and closer to the supply level at 109.00. That supply level would be breached to the upside as the price goes further skywards.

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There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which is brought about by the recent rally. The short-term bias is bullish, but once the price goes above the supply level at 109.50, the long-term bias also would turn bullish. Short trades are not currently recommended, owing to a buying pressure in the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 24, 2018

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF went seriously upwards on Monday. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market was brought about by the strength in Greenback. Since testing the support level at 0.9200 on February 16, the price has gained 550 pips (gaining 250 pips in this month alone), and it's now very close to the resistance level at 0.9800.

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The bias in the market is bullish, both in the long-term and in the near-term. Further upwards movement is anticipated, which would bring the price towards the resistance levels at 0.9800, 0.9850, and 0.9900.

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Burning forecast 04/24/2018

Burning forecast 04/24/2018

EURUSD: The downward trend.

In recent days, strong signals have been received for the trend down the euro: a break below the daily level of 1.2295 and consolidation below, breaking down at the weekly level of 1.2213.

Now a corrective rebound is possible upward, up to 1.2260 - but then it is likely to continue downward.

The euro falls on information about the ECB's unpreparedness to announce the completion of a program of injecting liquidity into the market.

The decision of the ECB will be released on Thursday, April 26.

Sell the euro from 1.2260, stop at 1.2305, the profit is 1.2000.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 24, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair is heading upward now, backed by its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a bullish outlook. Furthermore, the relative strength index is also positive, and calls for further advance. In which case, as long as 151.15 is not broken, it's likely advance to 152.15 and 152.65 in extension.

Fundamentally:

The British pound saw its loss widened at levels below the $1.4000 level as investors started to doubt if the Bank of England would raise interest rates in May considering weaker-than-expected economic data.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.15, 152.65, and 152.65

Support levels: 150.85, 150.60, and 150.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 24, 2018

The Dollar index has broken above the Daily cloud resistance and above its February high. The Dollar index is breaking one by one the resistance levels and the obstacles that will bring the price closer to our first target for so long at 91.70. In our last analysis, we noted that we remain bullish as long as the price is above 89.50. This level has now been raised to 90.

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Blue lines - trading range

The Dollar index has broken above the trading range and above the Daily cloud. This is a bullish sign. The price has been trading below the cloud since December if not since March of 2017, with a brief bounce. Will this bounce be a brief relief rally or a bigger upward move? I believe the latter. The first target is at 91.70 and the next one is at 94 where we find the lower boundary of the weekly Kumo (cloud).

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 24, 2018

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All our downside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is still under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair remains on the downside and is likely to test its next support at 0.7080. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are heading downward and should call for further decline. The nearest key resistance at 0.7180 maintains the strong selling pressure on the prices. To conclude, as long as 0.7180 is not surpassed, likely decline to 0.7080 and 0.7050 in extension.

Fundamental Outlook :

New Zealand's net migration picked up in March as February's unexpected softness in arrivals reversed. The monthly net inflow of 5,480 people was close to Westpac's expectation. Net migration has slowed since mid-2017, and in annual terms is now just below 68,000, the least in 2 years though still strong. Much of the increase in migration in recent years has been due to people arriving on temporary work and student visas.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7230, and 0.7275

Support levels: 0.7080, 0.7050, and 0.700.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 24, 2018

The Gold price broke down yesterday to new short-term lows as expected. The Gold price has broken below both the 4-hour and Daily cloud support and below the upward sloping short-term trend line support. A bounce could be seen for a couple days but we remain bearish as long as the price is below $1,348.

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Red lines - trading range

Black line - short-term trend line support

The Gold price is still in the long-term trading range. Gold is moving lower after getting rejected at $1,365 for another time. We warned that this rejection was a very bearish signal and that the inability to remain above $1,355 was the confirmation that we are going to see lower levels. Support remains at $1,300-$1,310. Resistance is at $1,340-48. Currently, we are in the middle of the trading range and between resistance and support levels. Traders should better take partial profits from our short idea and wait for the rest to see if we re-test support or resistance.

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Bitcoin analysis for 24/04/2018

The Central Bank of Iran has banned domestic banks and other financial institutions from dealing with cryptocurrencies, citing concerns about money laundering that first appeared in December 2017. The Iranian State Information Agency (IRNA) has published a statement saying that banks, credit institutions, and stock exchanges should avoid buying these currencies or take any action to promote them. Today, Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (REFRL) cites further details from the December circular: "All cryptocurrencies can be transformed into money laundering and terrorist financing, and can generally be a way to transfer money to criminals".

The ban will come when the country prepares for a possible renewal of US sanctions, when the national currency, rial, has plunged into unprecedented levels. Reuters further reports that Iran has unified its official and open exchange rates because it is trying to support the ailing financial institutions in the country and stop further currency declines. Iran's attitude towards cryptocurrencies was hardened in particular in February 2018, when local media cited the Central Bank's intention to "control and prevent" what is believed to be highly unreliable and risky.

Concurrent reports in February on Iran's investigation into the issue of a state digital currency led to comparisons with the centrally released Petro Venezuela, which many perceive as a reaction to their own, mutilating international sanctions. The Central Bank of Iran has introduced a crypto ban to all domestic banks and other financial institutions dealing with digital currencies, citing concerns about money laundering.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The technical resistance at the wave (b) top had been violated as the price made another marginal high at the level of $9,260. Moreover, the whole move up looks like it been made in five waves now, so the chance for a corrective pull-back are high. The immediate support is seen at the level of $8,989, but in a case of a further downside extension, the next support is seen at the level of $8,355, just below the weekly pivot at the level of $8,617. On the other hand, the next target for bulls is the 61% Fibo retracement at the level of $9,607.

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Trading plan for 24/04/2018

Overnight brings a somewhat calming down to the currency market, but the USD remains strong. The dollar index is hovering near three-month highs on the wave of strengthening from Friday and yesterday with the help of growing yields on government bonds - 10-year-olds attack 3%. The last hours bring a bit of calm and attempt to correct the recovery, but the EUR, GBP, and JPY profits do not exceed 0.2%. The weakest is NZD, where the reduction of long positions continues and NZD / USD fell to 0.7110.The stock market in Asia uses peace to increase.

On Tuesday 24th of April, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on German Ifo Business Climate data, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data and CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and Richmond Manufacturing Index data from the US.

USD/CAD analysis for 24/04/2018:

On Monday evening the president of Bank of Canada Poloz spoke in the parliament and his message was similar to last week's press conference after the meeting of the central bank. He said that inflation this year should stay slightly above the 2.0% target. supported by transitional factors. The greatest threat to the forecasts is the uncertainty about changes in global trade policy towards protectionism. He added that the uncertainty factors are the same as 6 months ago, although some have made good progress. In conclusion, relatively hawkish comments from Poloz, but the CAD still getting weaker on the wave of USD appreciation across the board.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The market has broken out of the descending channel and tested the 50% Fibo retracements at the level of 1.2822 and it looks like it is heading towards the 61$ Fibo at the level of 1.2892 despite the overbought market conditions. The immediate technical support is seen at the level of 1.2802 - 1.2813 and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2947.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for April 23, 2018

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Our first upside target which we predicted in previous analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is still trading on the upside. The pair is trading above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9725. Therefore, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new challenge with targets at 0.9795 and 0.9820 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9725, take profit at 0.9795.

Resistance levels: 0.9795, 0.9820, and 0.9855

Support levels: 0.9695, 0.9665, and 0.9630.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for April 23, 2018

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. Despite the recent rebound from 150.60, the pair is still capped by a declining 50-day moving average. The upside potential should be limited by the key resistance at 151.70. Even though a continuation of a technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Therefore, as long as 151.70 is not surpassed, look for another drop with targets at 150.60 and 150.00 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 152.15, 152.50, and 153.05

Support levels: 150.60, 150.00, and 149.50.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 23, 2018

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All our targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit, NZD/USD is still under pressure and expected to continue its downside movement. The pair is holding on the downside and is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index below its neutrality level at 50. Hence, as long as 0.7195 is not surpassed, look for a drop with targets at 0.7120 and 0.7100 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7210, 0.7230, and 0.7275

Support levels: 0.7120, 0.7100, and 0.7060.

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Daily analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

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Overview

Gold is trading downwards steeply to attack 1,331.00 level and is moving below it now. This opens the way to continue the bearish bias for the rest of the day, activating the bearish scenario on the intraday basis. 1,316.48 is most likely to be tested. Therefore, the bearish trend remains valid for the upcoming sessions unless the price manages to breach 1,335.40 level and holds above it again. The expected trading range for today is between 1,320.00 support and 1,350.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for April 23, 2018

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Overview

Silver is still trading quietly with a downward bias on its way to test 16.56 level. As long as the price is holding above this level, our bullish overview remains valid, supported by the EMA50. Please note that breaching 17.43 is required to push the price towards 18.30 that represents our next main target. The expected trading range for today is between 16.80 support and 17.43 resistance.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 23, 2018

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Global macro overview for 23/04/2018

The PMI indicator has traditionally been recognized as an important measure of the economic condition of a given country. It gives (in points) something that can be described as the mood of managers. The managers of large enterprises answer questions about planned production, employment or orders. It is assumed that these plans reflect their view of the economy: the more it is worth developing a business and risking the better the whole country. Of course, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent, but there are no perfect indicators. Either way, when the PMI has more than 50 points, the result is considered good, testifying to the advantage of optimists. The PMI data below the 50 level means deterioration in economic expansion.

Better readings in the PMI indexes from France and Germany have built up an appetite for positive surprises in the indicators for the entire Eurozone. Although the business service activity index increased to 55 from 54.9 (versus 54.6 expected), the industry PMI dropped to 56 from 56.6 (versus 56.1 expected). This is the lowest reading in 14 months. In the statement, there is a note, that says the strong EUR weakens export demand and, according to the assessment of companies, economic growth may slow down in the coming months.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The PMI data does not help the EUR/USD and the market slides below the technical support at the level of 1.2238 and makes a new marginal low at 1.2222 as it approaches the technical support at the level of 1.2215. The key technical support is still seen at the level of 1.2154 and the bias remains neutral (horizontal consolidation continuation).

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 23, 2018

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.4122. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.4122 (this level of 1.4122 coincides with the major resistance) to the bottom around 1.3965. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.4043 followed by 1.4122, while daily support 1 is found at 1.3868. Also, the level of 1.3965 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the GBP/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.4043 towards the first support level at 1.3868 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.3868, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.3789 in coming days. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.4122, then this scenario may be invalidated.

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Global macro overview for 23/04/2018

For the last months, the market has been dominated by the conviction that the US Dollar has many reasons to be weaker and yet since February, this pessimistic approach cannot find confirmation in the dollar index behavior. The Friday surprising US government bond yields give the dollar a fresh boost, and the investors' reluctance to pay back the dollar is a tough test.

The relationship of the dollar with the interest rates on US Treasury bonds has been going through difficult times in recent months. For a long time, higher yields were supportive for the currency, as they meant an increase in expectations for monetary tightening of the Fed. At the end of last year, this changed when the increase in interest rate meant the sale of bonds by investors wishing to return to the European market (earlier they were "chased" by the ECB's QE policy). The worries about the US's swelling debt after recent fiscal reforms were also unforgiving. The dollar was also burdened with a premium for geopolitical risk in connection with Donald Trump's online disputes with North Korea and China, but on these fronts, the information message has been significantly improved. There is also a discussion about what the Fed will do and the vision of four increases in 2018 is not ridiculous. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the market to insist on its pessimistic assessment of the dollar and we can be on the verge of a significant change.

Let's now take look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break through the technical resistance at the level of 90.59 and it looks like the price is going to test the level of 90.98 formed at the end of February this year.The momentum is strong and points to the north, but the stochastic is showing a somewhat overbought market condition. The price behavior at the level of 90.98 will be very important to market participants and might give more clues about the future market movements.

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Trading plan 04/23/2018

Trading plan 04/23/2018

The overall picture: the turn towards the dollar.

The week closed against the backdrop of the dollar strengthening.

The given statement by the head of the Bank of England is important saying that the Bank of England rate hike will probably be postponed.

The pound is under pressure and within the range.

Selling the pair is suggested from 1.4180.

Selling the pair is suggested from 1.3700.

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Daily analysis of EUR/JPY for April 23, 2018

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair is bullish in the near term, but the bullishness in the market is very weak. Price did almost nothing last week, save some consolidating movement throughout the week. The consolidation may continue this week, but a breakout is imminent, which would most probably favor bears.

Thus, the demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 could be reached, which may effectively challenge the recent bullishness in the market. It is expected that further southward movement would play itself out this week, because the outlook on JPY pairs is somewhat bearish for the week.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for April 23, 2018

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is bearish in the long term, and bullish in the short term. After price rammed into the demand level at 105.00 on March 23, it has gone upwards by 280 pips since then. Price closed above the demand level at 107.50 on Friday and it may even reach the supply levels at 108.00 and 108.50 this week....

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Before the anticipated reversal occurs, price could go upwards a little bit. The reversal may be strong enough to take price towards the demand level at 107.50. Yes, there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

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Daily analysis of USD/CHF for April 23, 2018

USD/CHF

This pair has been going upwards. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market was partly brought about by the anticipated stamina in Greenback. Since testing the support level at 0.9200 on February 16, the price has gained 550 pips (gaining 220 pips in this month alone), closing around the resistance level at 0.9750 on Friday.

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This is a bull market and it is good for long trades. The price should continue going further upwards as EUR/USD is pushed further southwards. The resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850 are the targets for this week.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for April 23, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains recently after bouncing off the 1.24 price area with a daily close. After certain consolidations previously, the positive economic reports of USD helped the currency to gain momentum over EUR, ahead of the upcoming EUR Minimum Bid Rate report to be published this week. Though the rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% but along with ECB Press Conference the market is expected to be quite volatile before the weekly close. Today, EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 53.4 as expected from the previous figure of 53.7, French Flash Services PMI was published with an increase to 57.4 from the previous figure of 56.9, which was expected to decrease to 56.6, German Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published better than expected, but with a slight decrease to 58.1 from the previous figure of 58.2, which was expected to decrease to 57.6, and German Flash Services PMI report was published with a slight increase to 54.1, which was expected to be unchanged at 53.9. Moreover, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 56.0, which was expected to be unchanged at 56.6, and Flash Services PMI report was published with a slight increase to 55.0 from the previous figure of 54.9, which was expected to decrease to 54.8. On the other hand, ahead of the upcoming CB Consumer Confidence and Advance GDP report to be published this week, which is expected to inject volatility in the market, today, USD Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published, which is expected to have a slight decrease to 55.2 from the previous figure of 55.6, Flash Services PMI is expected to increase to 54.3 from the previous figure of 54.0, and Existing Home Sales report is expected to have a slight increase to 5.55M from the previous figure of 5.54M. As of the current scenario, EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports, which did not help the currency to gain momentum against the USD impulsive bearish pressure today. Ahead of the upcoming economic reports to be published on the USD side, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair for the coming days of the week, whereas certain volatility is expected on the ECB Press Conference and EURO Minimum Bid Rate report publish period.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently impulsive with the bearish gains below the 1.23 price area which is expected to proceed towards the 1.2160 support area in the coming days. There was a gap in the market today, during the open which was retested before proceeding lower with the impulsive pressure. As the price remains below the 1.2350 area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected to continue.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 23, 2018

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $8.982 and reached first objective target. The current president and chief executive officer of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, and the man expected to soon be the New York Federal Reserve Bank, John Williams, has rejected the suggestion that cryptocurrencies comprise currency. The technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time – frame, I found that price reached first objective target (resistance) at the level of $8.970. Anyway, watch for potential breakout of resistance to confirm further upward continuation. The upward targets are set at the price of $9.805 and final target at the price of $11.600.

Support/Resistance

$8.970 – Intraday resistance

$8.724– Intraday support

$9.805– Objective target 1

$11.600 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,329.00. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a breakout of the upward channel, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a very consistent supply, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,342.20, $1,319.80 and at the price of $1,305.20.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,342.90

R2: $1,350.27

R3: $1,354.25

Support levels:

S1: $1,331.58

S2: $1,327.61

S3: $1,320.25

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for April 23, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3984. According to the M15 time – frame, I found a successful breakout of the upward trendline in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a strong downward pressure in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3967 and at the price of 1.3865.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4064

R2: 1.4120

R3: 1.4150

Support levels:

S1: 1.3978

S2: 1.3950

S3: 1.3890

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for April 23, 2018

The Dollar index is challenging important resistance. Price has broken above the 4-hour Ichimoku cloud and the first step for a bigger bounce towards 91.70 has been made. Bulls will now need to break above the April high and at the same time break above the triangle pattern.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

The Dollar index has given a bullish signal by breaking above the Ichimoku cloud. Price is now challenging the resistance of the upper triangle boundary. A break above the triangle will open the way for our first bullish target of 91.70. Support is at 89.50 by the lower cloud boundary and by the lower triangle boundary. I'm bullish Dollar as long as the index is above that level.

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Bitcoin analysis for 24/04/2018

The Supreme Court of Russia ordered the City of St. Petersburg to examine the reference to the ban on the information site regarding the cryptocurrency of the Russian Legal Information Agency (RAPSI). In the summer of 2016, the District Court in St. Petersburg for the District of Vyborgsky recognized the request of the prosecutor's office and blocked the site bitcoininfo.ru. The court ruled that the information on the Bitcoin digital currency website, which represents "a virtual payment instrument and a means of storing value", violates the federal law "On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation".

In July 2017, the District Court in St. Petersburg for the Oktyabrsky district ordered the blocking of 40 websites containing information on crypto accounts, claiming that they contribute to the development of shadow economy, and the free distribution of information about the digital currency causes "high use of cryptocurrencies in drug trafficking, weapons, false documents, and other criminal activities." In March 2018, the court of the City of St. Petersburg examined the appeal and issued a decision ordering the unblocking of websites.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made the correction of the wave (2)/b sooner than expected and it was much lower in price and time than anticipated. Nevertheless, the target for the price, which was projected at the level of $9,126 - $9,222, is about to be hit. Then the market will likely enter another corrective cycle down and might test the level of $8,355 from above. The growing bearish divergence supports the short-term corrective outlook for this market.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for April 23, 2018

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In November 2017, evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern followed by another lower High were expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390) where a valid SELL entry was offered as expected.

In general, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurs.

The price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 stood as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during last week's consolidations.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

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Trading plan for 23/04/2018

Yields of US government bonds are maintaining levels after Friday's rally, which supports USD. Moving on risky assets results in mixed stock market behavior and weakness of commodities, although news related to North Korea and US-China relations are positive. On the Asian stock market, minor declines on the main trading floors: Nikkei -0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.6%.

On Monday 23rd of April, the event calendar looks busy with the Eurozone Flash PMI Manufacturing and Services data releases, German Buba Monthly Report, Canadian Wholesale Sales data and Existing Home Sales data from the US. Moreover, there is a speech from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz scheduled later in the day.

EUR/USD analysis for 23/04/2018:

A bunch of interesting data was released over the weekend. North Korea announced on Saturday that it intends to suspend the missile program and nuclear tests, which is probably related to the upcoming summit with South Korea (27 April) and the meeting with the USA (the turn of May and June). US Secretary of the Treasury S. Mnuchin is considering a visit to China regarding a trade conflict, but he is "cautiously optimistic" that the agreement will be reached.

On late Friday, information from sources related to the ECB came to the market. According to reports, the latest series of weaker data from the Eurozone does not signal a breakdown in the path of growth and should not affect the ECB's plans to normalize the policy. The members of the Governing Council continue to strive to end the QE program by the end of the year and see the first rate hike in the second quarter of 2019.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Today. the biggest impact on the rate change might have the Eurozone Flash PMI Manufacturing and Services data releases, which are expected to be slightly lower than a month ago. The EUR/USD reacted negatively on the Friday ECB statements, so the breakout attempt above the level of 1.2413 failed. The price reversed and broke through the supports at 1.2346 and 1.2290 with a low at the level of 1.2248. The market is clearly oversold now and the price might try to move a little bit higher, although it will probably remain within the horizontal range between the levels of 1.2215 - 1.2298. Please notice the triangle technical pattern is forming at this time frame ( continuation pattern), which suggest a possible move upward soon.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for April 23, 2018

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Daily Outlook

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2200 and 1.2500 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400.This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of April 20.

The short-term outlook turns to become bearish as long as the depicted uptrend remains broken to the downside.

The depicted Multiple-Top pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 to be achieved on a daily basis. Bearish Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

Trade Recommendation:

Short-term traders can wait for a pullback towards (1.2315) to have a SELL trade. S/L should be placed just above Yesterday's high (1.2365). T/P levels to be located around 1.2195 and 1.2080.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of Gold for April 23, 2018

Gold price is challenging important Daily support at $1,333-28. Short-term trend is bearish as price has broken below the 4hour cloud. Gold price has seen multiple rejection at $1,355-65 area and every attempt to break the long-term resistance has been met with selling pressures and price reversals. Bulls continue to hope for a bullish break out to $1,400 as long as we trade above $1,300.

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Mgenta line- long-term resistance

Gold price has Daily cloud support at $1,333-28. Break below it and we will test the $1,300 lows from March. The multiple rejections and failed attempts to break above the long-term resistance tell me that we should expect more selling pressures to come for Gold. I remain bearish as long as we are below $1,365. Most bullish traders have their stops placed at $1,300. So a break below that level is expected to give a big push lower to Gold price even towards $1,260.

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Growth of the dollar? Everything is not so obvious

The US dollar finished the week with growth, but the demand for it was circumstantial and was caused by the outcome of investors from China against the growing threat of a full-fledged trade war.

We have repeatedly noted that the strengthening of the dollar is important only in terms of supporting the stability of the global financial system. As for the US economy, a strong dollar for it at this stage is highly undesirable.

The Committee on the Budget of the US Congress (CBO) published in April the next update of the budget and economic forecast for the next decade, taking into account the changes caused by the start of the tax reform. The conclusions of the NWO are very unpleasant - in an optimistic scenario, the accumulated budget deficit will amount to 12.4 trillion, the annual deficit will be twice the average for the last 50 years, and the federal debt will grow to 96.2%.

In this scenario, the assumption is that the increase in taxes and the reduction in costs will occur in accordance with the calculations. If these changes do not occur, then we should expect the growth of the national debt to 105%, and the aggregate deficit - up to 15 trillion.

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Thus, even in an optimistic scenario, the budget deficit will increase at a record pace, as the growth rate of spending will exceed revenue growth for the next 10 years - such a scenario is incorporated in the tax reform.

The US is trying to influence the trade balance in a number of ways in which the right direction is for itself, there is a rapidly growing rate of trade protectionism, which began with President Trump.

The attempt to shift some of the responsibility for the inflated level of consumption to their trading partners causes quite obvious opposition. First washing machines, then oil and aluminum, and now the trade war came in a high-tech sector. Two months ago, the United States restricted access of Huawei and ZTE products to the US market, and last week, it completely banned US companies of cooperation with ZTE, effectively imposing sanctions on China under the Russian scenario. China in response, informs the American side about the possibility of prohibiting sales in China of Apple products. Evidently the escalation of unilateral steps will lead to the destruction of patent law and the total trade war of all with all.

We have already noted that the US, in fact, has no other choice but to support a weak dollar, as the growth of the trade-weighted dollar (TWI) rate will inevitably lead to an increase in the trade balance deficit. With such trends, there is no hope of curbing the growth of the budget deficit, but there are other reasons.

According to the IMF forecast, which is confirmed by a number of large banks, global production this year will slow down rapidly.

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In the coming quarters, the slowdown in the global business cycle is expected, which will be strengthened by the Fed's policy and at the same time mitigated by Trump's tax reform. The slowdown in global growth will lead to a weakening of real wage growth rate, adding that tightening credit conditions and the risk of escalating a full-fledged trade war is beginning to look almost inevitable, as the battle for markets will become even more fierce.

Thus, a number of fundamental factors objectively contribute to the growth of the dollar index. Comments of Fed officials are mostly hawkish, the market is confident in at least two rate hikes in June and September, that is, the Fed will continue to adhere to its plan, which inevitably contributes to tightening of lending conditions and demand for the dollar. This process will be handled by means of forceful methods, aimed at shifting part of the costs to the shoulders of most US trading partners.

Macroeconomic statistics this week will be of little significance, and until Friday will not have a noticeable impact on the dollar. On Monday and Tuesday, data on the housing market will be published in March, on Thursday - a report on orders for durable goods, which may come out worse than expected amid a slowdown in production activity. On Friday, preliminary data on the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be released as well as personal spending. The latter factor will be regarded by the market as the main one, yielding worse expectations will contribute to the depreciation of the dollar.

This week, we should expect an increase in demand for safe haven assets, primarily for the Japanese yen. Slower growth in the cost of oil and a decrease in the flow of capital to the stock markets will contribute to heightened tensions, which may lead to a slowdown in the growth of Treasury yields.

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