GBP/USD. 22 of October. Results of the day. Theresa May's resignation may have a positive effect on the pound sterling

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 98 p-95 p-93 p-116 p-93 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 99 p (103 p).

If the European currency fell on the first trading day of the week, the British pound also fell. And it's not about the Italian budget. A whole range of problems that the UK faced during this year was sometimes forgotten by traders, but it didn't go away. This includes weak macroeconomic indicators, the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations, the resignation of Boris Johnson and David Davis, and the discontent of the population and the Parliament about how Theresa May negotiates with Brussels and talks about a possible new referendum on the issue of leaving the EU. And this is not a complete list of problems. Yes, from time to time the pound rose in price. Sometimes thanks to Donald Trump and his protectionist policies, sometimes on corrections. But if you look at the weekly chart, the long downtrend is visible to the naked eye. Thus, it seems that now is the time to start a new downward rally for the pound sterling. The only thing that can save the pound from a strong fall this time is at least some kind of decision on Brexit. The market needs certainty, not the words of Theresa May that 95% of the agreement has been reached. Moreover, this kind of information is not confirmed, and official negotiations fail over and over again. If Theresa May is dismissed, it may even have a positive impact on the pound, as the new prime minister may be more productive in negotiations with the EU or this person may not even be afraid to hold a new referendum, during which the country may even abandon Brexit.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement, rebounding from the Senkou line, the first target of 1.2973 was fulfilled. If traders manage to overcome it, the downward movement will continue with the target of 1.2880.

Buy-positions can be considered again not earlier than the price fixing above the critical line. In this case, the trend will change to an upward one, but in the current conditions it is still difficult to expect information that will support the pound.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR/USD. 22 of October. Results of the day. The budget problem of Italy, the political crisis of the UK

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 67 p-55 p-85 p-78 p-102 p.

The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 77 p (72 p).

The first trading day of the new working week ended with a new fall for the EUR/USD pair, not too strong, but still. The price perfectly worked the critical Kijun-sen line twice and, having pushed off from it, resumed the downward movement. Thus, we believe that the reasons for the downward movement on Monday, October 22, are purely technical. The pair, as a textbook, corrected on Friday to Kijun-sen and now resumed the downtrend. We consider the topic of the Italian budget and some confrontation on this issue with Brussels so far not too significant. It should be remembered that any pair can move in any direction and without the corresponding fundamental reasons. Thus, in our opinion, this is the situation now. It is even possible that it is in fact the political crisis in the UK, the possible resignation of Theresa May, as well as the unresolved issue of Brexit are the factors that are pulling down the euro, and not the issue of the budget of Italy. The Brexit theme itself is much more important than the Italian budget. Britain's exit from the EU without a "deal" will be unprofitable for both sides, although, of course, the UK will suffer more damage. The calendar of macroeconomic events today was completely empty and will remain so until Thursday. Thus, the technical factors of the currency pair movement remain a priority.

Trading recommendations:

For the EUR/USD pair, the price resumed its downward movement. Thus, now shorts are relevant with the support level of 1.1424 as the first goal. A reversal of the MACD indicator downwards will confirm the pair's intention to a new decline.

Buy orders can be opened after crossing the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the bulls will take the initiative on the instrument, and the first goal for the upward movement will be the resistance level of 1.1612.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 22/10/2018

The announcements of fiscal stimulus in China help calm moods and provide the Shanghai stock exchange with the best session in three years. It seems that the risks associated with Italy are already in the prices, and the Brexit case may move in the right direction. The currency market keeps tight ranges of fluctuations, but it is possible to shift in line with the increase in risk appetite.

EUR climbs up across the board today with the help of falling yields on Italian debt. This is a reaction after the Moody's decision on Friday to cut Italy's rating, but the cut was only 1 degree and maintained a rating above the threshold separating the investment status from junk. The rating outlook has been changed from negative to stable, which removes the risk of further cuts. This looks good for the Rome-Brussels dispute over the shape of next year's budget. Admittedly, at the end of the week, the S&P rating agency will take its decision, but in April it confirmed the BBB rating, so now a cut of 2 degrees (to reach the junk status) is unlikely. Despite this, traders are not completely deprived of the risks associated with Italy, as they need to explain to the European Commission the breach of the rules of fiscal savings. The press reports that Rome is not going to withdraw from plans to raise the deficit to 2.4% GDP, so the global investors are still facing the perspective where the EC will order budget changes under penalty. As a result, the EUR can not completely shake off the risk premium, although for the time being it is not enough to abuse the currency.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has retraced 61% of the previous swing down and currently, is retracing towards the technical support at the level of 1.1445. This is an important support level as any violation of this level would lead to the test of the next support at the level of 1.1432 and even a breakout lower towards the level of 1.1409. Please notice, the negative momentum supports the shoer-term bearish bias.

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BITCOIN Analysis for October 22, 2018

Bitcoin is currently residing below $6,500 area having certain indecision and correction along the way. The volatility at the edge of $6,500 has bee going on for a few months in a row which accounts for stabilization of the Bitcoin price. In light of the recent news, some regulations on Bitcoin may be imposed which might lead to a further decrease in value if the market sentiment reacts to it negatively. Meanwhile, the price has formed a short-term Bullish Divergence recently which is expected to lead to certain bullish pressure for a while. However, a daily close above $6,500 is to provide the required confirmation for the upcoming impulsive bullish pressure. As the price remains above $6,000 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 6,000

RESISTANCE: 6,500, 7,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Euro grabs ghostly hopes

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The euro managed to get above $ 1.15, although not for long. Such a move was favored by the statement of the Italian government about intentions to remain in the currency bloc. Rome made it clear that it feels comfortable in the eurozone and the EU. There is only one desire, to change the rules a little. The conciliatory rhetoric probably had the goal of reassuring market participants, who boosted the yield of local bonds and expanded their differential with German securities to a maximum of 5 years. This factor is regarded by investors as an increase in political risks and puts pressure on the EUR / USD rate. However, the compromise between Rome and Brussels is still far away.

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EM currencies managed to "squeeze" the dollar against the background of the Shanghai Composite growth. The Chinese authorities advised to pay attention not to the slowdown of the economy, but to the indicator itself (+ 6.5% year-on-year), which testifies to the good health of the Middle Kingdom. The fact that the currencies of developing countries have damaged trends against the dollar is in doubt. Most likely, we are dealing with a short-term offensive.

Not the least role in easing the US currency was played by concerns about the possibility of the US imposing sanctions against Saudi Arabia because of the murder of a journalist. In this case, Brent quotes can make a breakthrough and pass through the mark of $ 100 per barrel, which will adversely affect US foreign trade.

What will affect the pair EUR / USD

Important events for this week will be the meeting of the European Central Bank and the publication of the first assessment of US economic growth for the third quarter. Note that a month ago, Mario Draghi was optimistic about the impact of wage growth on core inflation. However, the sluggish dynamics of Core CPI reinforces the risks of the "pigeon" rhetoric of the head of the ECB. Together with the expected moderately vigorous growth of US GDP (+ 3.4% in quarterly terms), this creates prerequisites for the bear attacks on the EUR / USD pair as quotations increase.

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The decline in the forecast growth of the world economy. What is the danger of the upcoming 2019?

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Prospects for global growth in 2019 for the first time in a long time do not look the best. Experts believe that the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the tightening of financial conditions, may cause a decline.

In early 2018, optimism about the steady growth of the global economy was almost unanimous. However, a survey of more than 500 economists this month showed a decrease in forecasts for 18 of 44 economies, 23 remained unchanged and 3 were slightly increased. While the risks associated with protectionism, in 32 of the 44 economies have already reached a maximum.

"There is a simple dynamic in the global economy. The US is flourishing, while most of the rest of the world is slowing down or even stagnating. The effort caused by this discrepancy has a negative effect on many emerging markets," said Janet Henry, chief economist at HSBC.

"Firstly, there will be no winners in the world trade war. Even if the cumulative losses are modest, and some advantages go to a more open economy, all parties will ultimately feel worse than the current status quo," said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics.

Most economists covering the US economy said that the US economic policy toward China over the next few years will become more confrontational. At the same time, a faster than expected increase in US interest rates indicates a significant slowdown in the US economy by the end of next year.

The global growth forecast for 2019 is 3.6 percent, the first decline since July 2017. It is also lower than the IMF expectations, 3.7 percent.

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Opinion: Acceleration of US inflation will support the gold market

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David Lennox, an analyst at investment firm Fat Prophets, believes that in the future, the value of gold will receive support from accelerating inflation in the United States and weakening the US national currency.

"Recently, the dollar has been showing high volatility. In addition, many investors leave the stock market. Under these conditions, gold is once again becoming an attractive asset for capital preservation. Increasing demand for precious metals by investors is an excellent supporting factor for him," the expert said.

"I believe that in the coming years, investors should closely monitor the level of inflation in the United States and the course of the American national currency, since these two factors will have a significant impact on the gold market. Despite the previously expected growth of the dollar index to 100 points, it could hardly climb to 95-96 points. I think that the mark of 100 points is unlikely to be reached, and this is a very good sign for the precious metal," he added.

"The increase in interest rates by the Fed and the imposition of import duties by Washington are already taken into account by the markets in the current dollar rate and gold value. In the future, inflation in the US should come to the fore. It is assumed that it can show faster growth than previously predicted. In addition, if the dollar index stays at a level of 96 points for a long time, the price of gold may rise," said D. Lennox.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on October 22. Theresa May has big problems

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The pound is declining against the background of big problems with the leader of the CDU and British Prime Minister Theresa May. The conservatives gave her 72 hours to resolve Brexit-related issues, otherwise, May would lose her post. The purchases should be counted only after the formation of a false breakdown in the large support area of 1.3011 in order to return and fix above the resistance level of 1.3052. In the case of a larger decline under the support of 1.3011, only new minima in the area of 1.2962 and 1.2926 will be able to stop the fall of the British pound.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

As long as trading continues below the resistance level of 1.3052, formed in the first half of the day, pressure on the pound will continue, and a break of the support level of 1.3011 will lead to the demolition of many stop orders and a quick sale of the British pound with a minimum at 1.2962 and 1.2926, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of GBP / USD growth in the second half of the day, short positions can be returned to the false breakdown from 1.3052 or to rebound from the maximum of 1.3101.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

The pair returned below the moving averages, which is a signal to sell the British pound.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator was broken, which also indicates the presence of large sellers in the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on October 22. Bears are actively returning to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Buyers failed to cling to the resistance level of 1.1535, which led to the sale of the euro. The level of 1.1510 was also missed. Now, the task for the second half of the day is to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1515, which will lead to a re-rising wave with the update of this week's high around 1.1548, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a further decline in the euro, long positions can be viewed at the support update of 1.1487, with the formation of a false breakdown there, or at a rebound from the minimum of 1.1461.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers managed to form a false breakdown at the resistance level of 1.1535, which led to a decline in the euro. I paid attention to it in the morning review. At the moment, while the trade will be conducted below the resistance level of 1.1515, the pressure on the euro will remain, which can lead to a breakdown of the minimum of 1.1487, and to update the support of 1.1461, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of growth above 1.1535 in the second half of the day, you can sell the euro to rebound from the resistance of 1.1548.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted over the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the formation of an upward trend for the euro.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.1493 has kept the euro from selling, but a repeated test of this area will be a signal to open new short positions with a minimum of 1.1461.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What will the euro and pound do? One holds the budget of Italy, the second Brexit

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The movement of the euro and the British pound is becoming increasingly sensitive to geopolitical factors, such as Italian budget issues and Brexit negotiations, they have a more noticeable effect every day.

The euro began a week of growth against the backdrop of a statement by the Italian Prime Minister that the government is ready to sit at the negotiating table with EU representatives. At the same time, there was an increase in demand for Italian debt after a sharp sell-off in recent weeks. This year, the euro has often fallen when Italy's government bond yields rose.

The single currency rose 0.3 percent to $ 1.1550, departing from the recent lows of $ 1.1433. The euro also added 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc and against the pound. However, despite the vigorous start of the week, there is no certainty that the course will rise. The fate of the euro is still dominated by the Italian events.

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Equity markets are largely in positive territory amid expectations of tax cuts in China next year, this news launched a rally, first in Asian markets, and then in Europe. This helped ease geopolitical tensions between the West and Saudi Arabia over the murder of a prominent journalist and distract from the problems of Britain and the EU. Foreign exchange markets were mostly calm, although a more positive news background at the beginning of the week caused bullish sentiment.

For the dollar, the key factors are the violent sentiment of the Fed and signs of the strength of the US economy. I recommend to closely monitor the data on US GDP, which will be published this week, these figures will be a key factor in determining the direction of the dollar. So far, the American has grown against the Japanese yen, despite the fact that the yen looked favorably against the background of growing risks in the form of Brexit, Italy, and trade stresses in general.

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Black gold rises in price because of a possible recession in the market

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On Monday, October 22, global oil prices are moderately rising due to the high likelihood of reduced supply in the market. Such sentiments are due to the introduction of US sanctions against Iran's energy sector, experts say.

The cost of futures for North Sea Brent crude oil for December delivery rose to 0.3% to $ 80.02 a barrel. The price of December futures for WTI crude oil rose by 0.39% to $ 69.55 a barrel.

Recall that in May of this year, US President Donald Trump announced the country's withdrawal from the agreement on a nuclear program with Iran and the restoration of all sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Restrictions apply to countries doing business with Iran. A number of sanctions entered into force on August 7, 2018. The next tranche of restrictions, exciting oil exports, will be implemented from November 4 this year. The purpose of the White House, stated earlier, is to bring the export of black gold from Iran to zero.

According to experts, the Iranian embargo and high risks of falling oil supply associated with it, in the short term, will support the bull trend in the black gold market.

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The cost of silver has every chance of improvement according to experts

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According to some analysts, the price of a white metal, despite some decline, has a good chance of increasing. Experts remind that in the current year, silver has perfectly proved itself, successfully competing with gold.

Experts believe that the active struggle was not in vain for the value of the metal with a white-silver tint. They are confident that in the next two years, the price of silver will rise, as will its use in various industries. Analysts draw attention to the current active use of white metal by most global industrial enterprises, which they believe will increase.

A number of experts are skeptical of such conclusions. They are not sure about the further rise in the cost of silver. The maximum that opponents are counting on is the return of the price of the white metal to the previous level, and at best, to the level of $ 20. Recall that at the moment, the cost of the metal with a white and silver tint is $ 14.64.

Analysts are confident that a significant downturn in the global stock market, which resulted in an outflow of investments from the precious metals market, is a temporary phenomenon. In the future, investors will return to time-tested assets, such as gold and silver, experts sum up.

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Trading Plan 10/22/2018

Trading Plan 10/22/2018

The overall picture: The market is preparing the autumn trend.

The currency pair EUR / USD showed a reversal upward, the pound returned to the range.

The issue of the EU-Britain agreement, the main issue of the past week, is not resolved but postponed. In Britain, there is a softening of the position on Brexit, even holding a new referendum is not excluded.

The main issue of the new week is the ECB decision on monetary policy. Everyone agrees that the ECB will not change the policy at the current meeting, but it is possible to change the tone of the ECB's statements. The decision will be on Thursday, October 25.

We expect the release of European currencies from the long ranges this week and a strong autumn trend.

We are ready to buy a pound at the breakthrough of 1.3260.

Alternative: Selling at a break down of 1.2920.

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Weekly review for the currency pair GBP / USD from October 22 to 27, 2018

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On the weekly price chart, it will move up with the target of 1.3258, the upper fractal.

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Fig. 2 (weekly schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Monthly schedule - up.

Conclusion of the complex analysis - upward movement.

The total result of the calculation of the candle of the GBP / USD currency pair on a weekly schedule: the price of the week is likely to have an upward trend with the presence of the first lower shadow of the weekly white candle and the presence of the second upper shadow.

The upper target is 1.3258, the upper fractal.

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EUR/USD: Euro buyers need correction for a new wave of growth and a reversal of the trend

Euro buyers need a correction for a new wave of growth and a reversal of the trend. Eurozone current account balance has grown while sales in the secondary housing market of the United States declined again.

The euro managed to rectify its position, which at the close of the day allowed the bears to capture only a slight advantage after falling throughout the week.

Data released in the euro area supported the euro on Friday. According to the report, the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone increased due to the growth in the positive balance of trade in goods.

According to the European Central Bank, the current account balance of the eurozone in August of this year amounted to 24 billion euros after a surplus of 19 billion euros in July. However, compared to the same indicator for 2017, the surplus was smaller when it was 39 billion euros.

Such data will probably not remain without getting the attention from the administration of President Donald Trump, who recently criticized the EU representatives, saying that they are not working on a trade agreement between the US and the EU.

In general, over the 12 months to August of the current year, the positive balance of the current account of the balance of payments in the eurozone amounted to 379 billion euros, equivalent to 3.3% of GDP.

Housing data continues to push investors away from purchases of the US dollar. According to a report by the National Association of Realtors NAR, sales in the secondary housing market in the United States declined significantly last month. Thus, sales in the secondary housing market in September 2018 and amounted to 5.15 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales of 5.29 million. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales in September fell by 4.1%.

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The speech of the Federal Reserve representative, Robert Kaplan, did not allow the US dollar to regain its positions against risky assets. Kaplan said that the Fed is achieving goals within its dual mandate, which allows for the time being to keep the policy in a moderately stimulating direction.

He also noted that the rate of interest rates of the Fed is currently taken into account in the market quotes, but the US should moderate its debt growth and to a lesser extent rely on the status of the dollar as a reserve currency.

This is a list of buyers who have made a significant difference. area of large support levels of 1.1500 and 1.1480. In the area of 1.1570 and 1.1610.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, buyers gave a significant rebuff to the sellers, and their next step will be to build the lower boundary of the upward channel, which can be formed earlier this week after the downward correction in the area of large support levels of 1.1500 and 1.1480. The main task will be to return to large levels of resistance in the area of 1.1570 and 1.1610.

The British pound continues to trade in the side channel, however, the pressure of bears is getting stronger along with the unresolved problem on Brexit and unimportant matters in the ruling Christian Democratic Party Angela Merkel.

According to the data, in September of this year, UK public sector borrowing declined, which makes it possible to reach the target level of borrowing this year. According to the report, the net borrowings of the UK public sector in September amounted to 4.1 billion pounds against 4.9 billion pounds a year ago. Economists had expected a deficit of 5.2 billion pounds in September. The government hopes that by the end of the current fiscal year, borrowing will not exceed 31.1 billion pounds.

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Simplified Wave Analysis. Review of USD / JPY pair for the week of October 22

Wave pattern of the H4 chart:

As part of a larger daily wave on the graph since July 19, a downward correction is formed. In its appearance, the wave structure is more like a stretched plane. The first 2 parts (A-B) are completely formed.

Wave pattern of the H1 chart:

In the structure of the descending wave of October 3, the first part (A) was formed and the middle part (B) is nearing completion.

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Wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The ascending part of the price movement of October 15 has a small growth potential. The price is at the lower boundary of the resistance zone.

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Recommended trading strategy:

The pair is not recommended to purchases next week. In the area of the reversal zone, it is suggested to track the signals selling the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 112.70 / 113.20

Support areas:

- 110.70 / 110.20

Explanations of the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (A-B-C). Three main timeframes are used for the analysis. The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a reversal.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on October 22, 2018

GBP / USD pair

On Friday, on a positive account this time, rumors about Brexit helped the British pound to grow by 52 points. As reported, British Prime Minister Theresa May is ready to make concessions to the EU in order to conclude a trade agreement. Actually, the dollar became cheaper throughout the market against the background of profit-taking as the USD index fell by 0.33%.

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Technically, the price went above the balance line on the daily timeframe and will also try to test the indicator resistance of a smaller scale for durability. The balance lines and MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart ranges around 1.3105 / 35. These levels correspond to correction levels of 38.2% and 50.0% of the descending part of October 12-18.

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On Wednesday, good data are expected on the American economy. The October Services PMI may grow from 53.5 to 54.1 and September sales of new homes may also increase from 629 thousand to 630 thousand. Perhaps, the correction will be completed on that day. In the Brexit line, positive and negative rumors alternate, while the fact remains that postponement of the negotiations to a later time.

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Control zones of EUR/USD pair 10/22/18

On Friday, there was a test of weekly control zone, indicating the implementation of a downward priority model. On the same day, a strong growth followed, which led to the absorption of Thursday's fall.

Friday's upward movement led to the formation of an engulfing pattern. This happened after testing the weekly control zone, which can serve as the first impetus for the formation of a reversal upward pattern. The a control zone is the determining resistance and the upper limit of which is located at 1.1525. If the pair continues to trade below this mark, the downward movement will resume and the first target of the decline will be at least last week.

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The above model is still a priority since the closing of last week's trading occurred below the level of 1.1525. This does not allow considering the purchase.

Ending the downward movement will require the closure of today's trading above 1.1525 level. This will open the way for growth to a weekly control zone in the short term. In the case of the implementation of this plan, all remaining sales will have to be closed, and tomorrow, they will consider purchases with any depreciation.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 22, 2018

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Overview:

The price is still trading around the kel level of 1.1497. The EUR/USD pair continues to rise from the level of 1.1497 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.1497 which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1569. So, buy above the level of 1.1569 with the first target at 1.1620 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 1.1714. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.1714 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1497/1.1500 , a further decline to 1.1422 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 22, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.6617, while strong resistance is seen at 0.6617 (double top). Support is found at 0.6543 and 0.6496 levels. This week, the NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from 0.6617 level. The pair could fall from 0.6617 level to the first support around 0.6543. In consequence, if the NZD/USD pair will break support at 0.6543, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.6543 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.6543 level towards the target at 0.6496. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.6543 level, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6543 level in order to reach the second target at 0.6496. However, the 0.6496-0.6423 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.6423 level as long as this level is not broken. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario below the area of 0.6420.

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Bitcoin analysis for October 22, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC is trading inside of the tranding range between the price $6.456 (resistance) and the price of $6.319. Since there is a buying climax in the background, my advice is to watch for a potential breakout of support to confirm a further downwrad movement. If you see a valid breakout of the support, watch for selling opportunities with the downward target at the price of $6.162.

Support/Resistance

$6.456 – Intraday resistance

$6.319– Intraday support

$6.162 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for October 22, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,222.00. According to the H4 time – frame, I have found potential head and shoulders pattern in progress, which is a sign that buying at this stage looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities if you see a breakout of the neckline ($1,220.00). The projected target is set at the price of $1,207.00, which is also a previous swing high zone (support).

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GBP/USD analysis for October 22, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of1.3015. According to the H4 time – frame, I found a confirmed head and shoulders (bearish pattern) in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. Most recently, I have found broken 12h balance, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.2925.

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for October 22. The growth of the pound sterling may prevent events in the UK

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Wave counting analysis:

During the October 19 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair gained about 50 basis points. Thus, there are grounds for assuming the completion of wave 2, 5. If this is true, then the quotation increase will continue with targets above 33 figures, within wave 3, 5. The news background can change the market mood more than once. Recently, the political crisis in Britain is gaining momentum. The market is filled with rumors about the possible resignation of Theresa May, plus the situation on Brexit remains unresolved. Thus, the wave pattern may require additions and corrections.

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.3258 - 0.0% according to Fibonacci

1.3300 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with sales:

1,3003 - 76.4% of Fibonacci

1.2924 - 100.0% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair has presumably completed the construction of wave 2. Thus, I recommend now to buy a pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.3258 and 1.3300, which corresponds to 0.0% and 161.8% of Fibonacci, based on building the third wave in the uptrend of the trend. Reasons for a new pair of sales will appear in the case of a successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 2.

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GBP / USD: plan for the European session on October 22. The growth potential of the pound is limited news on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Today, it is best to count on long positions in the pound after the formation of a false breakdown in the middle of the channel of 1.3052, with a rebound from the 30-day moving average. The main task of buyers will be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.3101, which will lead to a larger increase in GBP / USD with access to the highs of 1.3145 and 1.3186, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the first half of the day below the level of 1.3052, long positions can be opened to rebound from the support of 1.3011.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance level of 1.3101 will be a good signal to sell the pound based on the breakdown of support at 1.3052, which will lead to the continuation of the downward trend in GBP / USD with a test of 1.3011 and 1.2962 lows, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a rise above the resistance level of 1.3101 in the first half of the day, it is possible to open short positions immediately to rebound from a high of 1.3145.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved above 30 and 50 MA, but it's still very early to talk about a change in trend. Return under MA will be a signal to sell pounds.

Bollinger bands

The upside potential is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3085, however, its breakdown will be a signal to buy the pound in order to update the weekly highs. In the case of a decline, support will be provided by the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3035, from where you can open long positions in a pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for October 22. Euro is rising against the background of an empty news calendar.

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Wave counting analysis:

During the trading on Friday, the EUR / USD currency pair gained about 65 basis points. Thus, the estimated first wave in the future from the downtrend of the trend has completed its construction. If the current wave counting is correct, then the increase in quotations will continue for some time, after which it is expected that the decline will resume within wave 3, c with targets located under the 14 figure. So far, there is no reason to clarify the current wave marking.

The objectives for the option with sales:

1.1327 - 127.2% of Fibonacci

1.1194 - 161.8% of Fibonacci

The objectives for the option with purchases:

1.1578 - 61.8% of Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The currency pair supposedly completed the construction of wave b, as well as the first wave c. Thus, now I recommend preparing for new sales of the pair, but for this, you need a signal to complete the construction of the proposed wave 2, c. When this happens, it will be possible to open new sales with targets that are below the calculated mark of 100.0% Fibonacci (1.1431).

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EUR / USD: plan for the European session on October 22. Euro gradually return position

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

For euro buyers, in order to maintain the upward trend, it is necessary to break and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1535, which will allow us to expect continued growth, reaching last week's highs in the area of 1.1573 and 1.1605, where I recommend fixing the profits. The absence of important fundamental statistics today can allow the bulls to reach these levels. In the case of EUR / USD decline in the first half of the day, long positions can be returned on a false breakdown from 1.1510 or to rebound from a minimum of 1.1487.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Euro sellers are required to form a false breakdown and return to Friday's resistance level of 1.1535, which will lead to renewed pressure on the euro and decrease in the area to support 1.1510. The main goal will be to update a larger level of 1.1487, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above the resistance of 1.1535 in the first half of the day, you can sell the euro to rebound from a maximum of 1.1573.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved above the moving average, and 30 MA crosses 50 MA upwards, indicating a change in the short-term trend from the downward trend to the upward one.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1540 may limit the upward potential in euros. The average border is at 1.1510, and its test will be a good signal to buy euros.

analytics5bcd7d24d4152.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. 22nd of October. The trading system. "Regression Channels". UK: the situation is heating up

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -49.5259

The GBP / USD currency pair has also started to adjust, but the MA has not yet worked. On the night of Sunday to Monday, quite important and contradictory information was received on Brexit. British Prime Minister Theresa May said that an agreement with the EU was reached by 95%, which generated a new batch of debates among traders and the public in general. May's statement again looks like an attempt to calm everyone down. It is impossible to explain such optimistic words otherwise after two failures in the negotiations. On October 20, a protest rally was held in London, in which more than 100,000 people took part. The reason for the rally was the requirement to hold a new referendum on the country's withdrawal from the EU. The demonstration was led by the mayor of London Sadiq Khan, according to various sources, up to half a million people participated in it. According to Khan, Theresa May can now offer two options: either the complete absence of a "deal" with the EU, or a "deal" unprofitable for London. As it is not difficult to guess, opponents of both options are enough among the population of Albion, and within Parliament. Meanwhile, insider information appeared on the possible resignation of Theresa May. Tensions within the Conservative Party are growing and, according to unverified data, the necessary number of party deputies are already being recruited in order to dismiss May. However, most likely, they will not rush with this decision and will give May a deadline of March 29, the day when the UK should officially leave the EU.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD is adjusted. Thus, it is recommended to open new sell orders after the Heikin Ashi indicator turns down or after the price rebounds from the moving with the goal of Murray's level of "5/8" - 1.3000

Buy positions will become relevant after the price is fixed above the moving with the goal of Murray's level of "8/8" - 1.3184. However, given the fundamental background coming from the UK, it will be quite difficult for the pair to continue moving up.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. 22nd of October. The trading system "Regression Channels". Technology, in the first place

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -12.3255

The EUR / USD instrument on Monday, October 22, corrected to a moving average line. Now, traders will expect either a rebound from the MA or overcoming it. Given the fact that today, there is not one important planned macroeconomic report, neither in the States nor in the European Union. The main factor for determining the intraday trend will be technical. At the moment, the Heikin Ashi indicator continues to paint the bars to purple, which indicates a local upward movement. A downward reversal of this indicator will indicate the completion of an upward correction, and this scenario will be the most logical. We believe that the failure of negotiations between London and Brussels can put pressure on the euro and the pound for a long time, unless, of course, Donald Trump takes the stage with new threats to impose duties on everyone and everything. Escalating the trade conflict between China and the United States can also put pressure on the US currency. In any case, today, we are watching the moving average and how the price behaves around it. As for the fundamental component, no important macroeconomic statistics are expected until Thursday. The announcement of the results of the ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday, may also not cause any market reaction, since no change in the ECB's monetary policy is expected.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,1475

S2 - 1,1414

S3 - 1.1353

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1536

R2 - 1.1597

R3 - 1.1658

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has worked moving. The price rebound from the moving average will serve as a signal to open new short positions with a target of 1.1475. The color of 1-2 bars with Heikin Ashi indicator in blue will confirm the end of the upward correction.

Long positions will become relevant only after traders overcome the moving average line. The tendency, in this case, to change to ascending, and the first target for trading to increase will be the Murray level of "6/8" - 1.1597.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for October 22. The bullish divergence allowed the euro to rise

4h

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The double bullish divergence of the MACD and CCI indicators allowed the pair to make a U-turn in favor of the European currency and consolidation above the correction level of 61.8% - 1.1497. As a result, the growth process can be continued on October 22 in the direction of the correctional level of 50.0% - 1.1558. New emerging divergences are not observed. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of the US dollar and resuming the fall in the direction of the correction level of 76.4% - 1.1424.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from August 15, 2018, and September 24, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair began the process of returning to the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a resumption of decline in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances for further growth in the direction of the next correctional level of 76.4% - 1.1789.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD currency pair can be made now with a target of 1.1558 and a Stop Loss order under the Fibo level of 61.8%, since the pair completed closing above the correction level of 1.1497.

Sales of the EUR / USD currency pair can be opened with the target of 1.1424 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 61.8% if the pair closes below the correction level of 1.1497.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences for October 22. The pound has growth potential

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD quotes consolidated below the correction level of 23.6% - 1.3067, but after the formation of bullish divergence, a reversal was made in favor of the British currency and a return to the Fibo level of 23.6%. Fixing the rate on October 22 above the correction level of 23.6% will increase the probability of continued growth in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.3316. Rebound quotes from the Fibo level of 23.6% will work in favor of resuming the fall of the pair.

The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of April 17, 2018, and August 15, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the Fibo level of 50.0% - 1.3091, dropped to the correction level of 61.8% - 1.3051, and rebounded from it. Thus, today, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the correctional level of 50.0%. None of the indicators have maturing divergences. The end of the pair quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will again work in favor of the US dollar and return to the correctional level of 61.8%.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from October 4, 2018, and October 12, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be carried out now with targets at 1.3091 and 1.3130 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 61.8%, since the pair completed the rebound from the level of 1.3051 (hourly chart).

Selling a pair of GBP / USD will be possible with targets at 1.3051 and 1.3003 and a Stop Loss order above the 50.0% level if the pair rebounds from the Fibo level of 1.3091 (hourly chart).

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Swings in global markets continue

Uncertainty in financial markets has led to a marked increase in volatility, which affects all financial markets without exception. The factors influencing this are still strong and significant.

These influential factors include the continuation of the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve, the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as the generally strong data on the profits of US companies, which, in our opinion, only temporarily restrain the continuation of the fall in US stock indexes. Against this background, the dollar is also perceived ambiguously. When fears grow over the growth prospects of the world economy, it grows up realizing its function of a safe haven, it decreases, on the contrary, when investors are already worried about the state of the economy in the States themselves.

In this sense, another factor of uncertainty is the expectation of elections to the US Congress, which will take place in November and carry a significant political and reputational risk for the country. It is unclear who can win the elections, Republicans or Democrats. One thing is clear that the victory of the former will strengthen D. Trump's position, and secondly, it can lead to the impeachment of the American president, which could become the basis for the collapse of the local stock market and the fall in the yield of government Treasury bonds.

The likely dynamics of the dollar is still unclear, since it is not clear how investors will evaluate the election results. It is not clear how he will be perceived? How is currency safe? What will be the reason for his appreciation? Or everything will be the other way around, market participants will avoid dollar assets and will sell US currency. It seems to us that a lot will depend on the details of the developing events. For the time being, most likely, in the foreign exchange market, the general period of consolidation of currency pairs where the US dollar is present will continue. It is likely that after Friday's weakening of the dollar today, it will receive short-term support, and tomorrow, on the contrary, it may be under pressure, swinging like on a swing, up and down.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1500. The pair remains in the "side" range not a wave of uncertainty. From a technical point of view, it may continue to grow locally to 1.1575, if held above the level of 1.1500, but a decline below this level may lead to a fall in prices to 1.1445.

The USD / JPY currency pair is trading below the level of 112.70 in the wake of the demand for stocks in the local financial market in Japan. From a technical point of view, the pair held in the short-term uptrend, and, on overcoming the level of 112.70, has the potential for local growth to 113.25.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for October 22

Dear colleagues.

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the price is in the area of the initial conditions for the downward movement of October 16 and we expect the continuation of the downward movement after the breakdown of 1.1475. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price is in the correction zone and we expect further downward movement after the breakdown of 1.3004. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price forms an upward structure of October 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 0.9975. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in correction and forms a potential for the upside and the uptrend development is expected after the breakdown of 112.72. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price forms the potential for an upward movement of October 18 and the development of this structure is expected after the breakdown of 129.74. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the continuation of the development of the downward structure of October 16 is possible after the breakdown of 146.22.

Forecast for October 22:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1612, 1.1589, 1.1555, 1.1528, 1.1475, 1.1448, 1.1425, 1.1392 and 1.1370. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 16. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1475. In this case, the first target is 1.1448. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1448 - 1.1425 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 1.1392. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1370, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.1528 - 1.1555 and the breakdown of the latter will lead to the development of an upward trend. In this case, the target is 1.1589. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1612, upon reaching which we expect consolidation and rollback downwards.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 16, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1528 Take profit: 1.1553

Buy 1.1557 Take profit: 1.1586

Sell: 1.1475 Take profit: 1.1450

Sell: 1.1448 Take profit: 1.1425

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For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3120, 1.3071, 1.3043, 1.3004, 1.2945, 1.2896 and 1.2830. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of October 12. At the moment, the price is in the correction. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 1.3004. In this case, the target is 1.2945 and the breakdown of which will allow us to expect a movement to the level of 1.2896, consolidation is near this value. A potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2830, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3043 - 1.3071 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3120 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 12.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3043 Take profit: 1.3070

Buy: 1.3074 Take profit: 1.3120

Sell: 1.3002 Take profit: 1.2947

Sell: 1.2943 Take profit: 1.2898

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For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0030, 1.0007, 0.9975, 0.9960, 0.9934, 0.9918 and 0.9893. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 15. The price passage of the range of 0.9960 - 0.9975 will begin the development of an upward trend. In this case, the goal is 1.0007. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 1.0030, after reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9934 - 0.9918 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9893 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9977 Take profit: 1.0005

Buy: 1.0009 Take profit: 1.0030

Sell: 0.9934 Take profit: 0.9920

Sell: 0.9916 Take profit: 0.9895

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For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.31, 112.72, 112.38, 111.77, 111.48, 111.02 and 110.38. Here, we are following the formation of the potential for the top of October 15. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 111.77 - 111.48. The breakdown of the level of 111.48 will lead to the movement to 111.02, near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 110.38, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 112.38 - 112.72 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.31 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of October 3, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 112.38 Take profit: 112.70

Buy: 112.75 Take profit: 113.30

Sell: 111.75 Take profit: 111.50

Sell: 111.46 Take profit: 111.04

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For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3250, 1.3199, 1.3161, 1.3127, 1.3085, 1.3060 and 1.3022. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of October 16. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3127. In this case, the target is 1.3161 and in the range of 1.3161 - 1.3199 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3250, after reaching which we expect a departure to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3085 - 1.3060 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3022 and this level is the key support for the upward structure of October 16.

The main trend is the ascending structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3127 Take profit: 1.3160

Buy: 1.3163 Take profit: 1.3197

Sell: 1.3085 Take profit: 1.3062

Sell: 1.3058 Take profit: 1.3025

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.7211, 0.7188, 0.7156, 0.7130, 0.7092, 0.7073. Here, the price entered the equilibrium state. The short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is expected in the range of 0.7130 - 0.7156. The breakdown of the level of 0.7158 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7188. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7211, upon reaching which we expect consolidation.

The price at 0.7092 - 0.7073 will lead to the development of the downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.7040, up to this level, we expect registration of the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the equilibrium situation.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7130 Take profit: 0.7152

Buy: 0.7158 Take profit: 0.7185

Sell: 0.7190 Take profit: 0.7073

Sell: 0.7070 Take profit: 0.7042

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For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 131.08, 130.71, 130.18, 129.74, 129.13, 128.84 and 128.31. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of October 18. The continuation of the movement upward, we expect after the breakdown of 129.74. In this case, the goal is 130.18 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 130.20 will lead to the development of a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the goal is 130.71. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 131.08, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 129.13 - 128.84. Hence, there is a high probability of a reversal upwards. The breakdown of the level of 128.84 will have to develop a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 128.31.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of October 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.75 Take profit: 130.10

Buy: 130.25 Take profit: 130.70

Sell: 129.10 Take profit: 128.86

Sell: 128.80 Take profit: 128.40

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For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 148.35, 147.42, 146.92, 146.22, 145.68, 145.20, 144.91 and 144.34. Here, we are following the downward structure of October 16. The downward movement is expected after breakdown of 146.22. In this case, the first target is 145.68 and the breakdown of which in turn will lead to the movement to the level of 145.20, and the consolidation is in the range of 145.20 to 144.91. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 144.34, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 146.92 - 147.42 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop the ascending structure. In this case, the goal is 148.35.

The main trend is the downward structure of October 16.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.95 Take profit: 147.40

Buy: 147.50 Take profit: 148.30

Sell: 146.20 Take profit: 145.70

Sell: 145.65 Take profit: 145.22

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com