Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for September 5, 2017

AUD/USD has been quite corrective in nature recently until today where it broke above the corrective structure with an impulsive bullish move. Today was an important day for the Aussie Dollar as a Cash Rate report was published alongside the RBA Policy Statement which declared the unchanged cash raet at 1.50% as expected. The news which helped the aussie to extend the bullish momentum in the market pushing the price much higher against USD. Along with it, AIG Service Index report was published with a decreased figure at 53.0 from the previous figure of 56.4 and Current Account showed a wider deficit figure at -9.6B from the previous figure of -4.8B which was expected to be at -7.9B. Despite the negative data in these medium-impact reports, AUD has surged higher and expected to show more growth in the coming days over USD. On the other hand, after the holiday of observing the Labor Day in US, today FOMC Member Brainard and FOMC Member Kashkari are going to speak about the nation's key interest rates and future monetary policies, their remarks are expected to be neutral in nature. Apart from the speeches, today US Factory Orders report is going to be published which is expected to be negative at -3.3% from the previous positive value of 3.0% and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is expected to increase to 53.1 from the previous figure of 52.2. To sum up, USD is currently quite weaker with the economic reports against AUD which is expected to show some positive gains on AUD side for the coming days whereas USD will need consistent high impact positive reports to counter the bullish rally in this pair.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has been supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA throughout last few days. The pair is likely to show some rise towards 0.8050-70 resistance area. As the price remains above the dynamic level of 20 EMA, the impulsive bullish move will continue and as the price remains above the support area of 0.7750-0.7840 the bullish bias is expected to continue further towards the resistance area.

analytics59aeae5d88ebf.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for September 05, 2017

analytics59aea53c9e821.jpg

Technical outlook:

The story in EUR/USD continues as discussed earlier, to remain short and continue selling on intraday rallies. The wave structure remains broadly unchanged for now with wave 1 (sub-divided into 5 waves) ready and wave 2 terminated at 1.1980 last week. As an alternattive thought, wave 2 could spring an upsurge towards 1.1930/80 levels to find resistance and then reverse lower. Overall, bears are expected to remain in control till prices stay below 1.2070 levels, which is turning to be strong resistance with each day passing. Interim resistance is seen at 1.1980 levels while support is at 1.1820 levels respectively. It is highly suggested to exit counter trend longs now and continue holding and adding shorts from here on. On the flip side, only a break above 1.2070 levels would nullify a bearish setup.

Trading plan:

Please remain short and add on rallies through 1.1930/80, stop at 1.2085 and target 1.1600 and lower.

GBP/USD chart setups:

analytics59aea94b2de49.jpg

Technical outlook:

The GBP/USD pair is inching higher towards expected levels around 1.3050/70 levels for now. The entire setup has been discussed earlier and there is no change for now, except for the fact that more selling should be done at wave (2) termination as labelled here. Please note that fibonacci 0.618 resistance is seen at 1.3075 levels while wave A becomes equal to wave C at 1.3050 levels. Please note that resistance should be strong around this convergence zone and the pair is expected to turn lower again towards 1.2600 and 1.2300 levels. It is again humbly suggested to exit on counter-trend longs taken if any, aggressively and focus to hold short positions/add further on intraday rallies. The pair is seen to be moving exactly as per wave principle and is looking to terminate the 5-3 waves around 1.3050/70 levels. Please note that the next high probable wave count is expected towards the south side which should sub-divide into 5 waves.

Trading plan:

Please remain short and look to add further at 1.3050 levels, stop at 1.3270, targeting 1.26, 1.23 and lower.

Fundamental outlook:

Please note that there are no major events lined up for the rest of the day.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for September 05, 2017

analytics59ae9e305a324.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1900. According to the 30M time frame, I found a strong resistance cluster at the price of 1.1925. The price is trading near the resistance cluster and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the prices of 1.1850 and 1.1825. There is also a strong weakness in the background from the last week, which is another sign that buying looks risky.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1930

R2: 1.1960

R3: 1.2000

Support levels:

S1: 1.1860

S2: 1.1820

S3: 1.1790

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 5, 2017

analytics59ae956a41cdb.png

Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.

On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for September 5, 2017

analytics59ae9564d222a.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

analytics59ae9572cb70d.png

Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.The nearest Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if the current bearish pullback persists below 1.1800 and 1.1700.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for September 05, 2017

analytics59ae8f791c09a.png

Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,326.17. According to the 1H time frame, I found a confirmed double top formation, an evening star candle formation and hidden bearish divergence on the RSI oscilator, which are signs that buying looks risky and that sellers took control from buyers. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,317.15 and $1,300.65

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,342.75

R2: $1,347.50

R3: $1,350.50

Support levels:

S1: $1,335.20

S2: $1,332.40

S3: $1,327.60

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for September 05, 2017

analytics59ae8b6d2b5ea.png

The Bitcoin (BTC) is trading lower at the level of $3.996 driven on the news that the People's Bank of China, the central bank of the country, has officially declared initial coin offerings (ICOs) as an illegal method of raising money. In an official statement, the PBoC announced that organizations and individuals are no longer permitted to conduct ICO (intial coin offering) campaigns and token sales. "PBoC bans ICOs. From now on, no organizations and persons in China are allowed to raise funds via ICOs. Fund-raising platforms are not allowed to provide trading and exchange services. Raised funds should be 'cleared up' and refunded to protect investors." Technical picture confirming weakness on the Bitocin.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 1H time frame, I found a broken rising wedge in the background, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward target is set at the price of $3.610.

Support/Resistance

$3.610 – Major support (projected target)

$4.396 – Intraday resistance cluster

$3.995 – Intraday support cluster

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 5, 2017

EUR/USD: This pair moved sideways on Monday. The bullish signal in the market is still valid (unless price goes below the support lines at 1.1750). It is possible that when momentum returns to the market, it would most probably favor the current bullish signal, and thus, the resistance lines at 1.1950 and 1.2000 could be reached.

1504609840_1.png

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has been consolidating for about 5 weeks – hence a neutral outlook on the market. There is going to be a rise in momentum this week, which would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern (when price gains about 150 pips), or it would result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern (when price loses about 150 pips).

2.png

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD pair consolidated on September 4 with no significant movement to the upside or the downside. The market has been consolidating since last week, in the context of an uptrend. However, a breakout is imminent, which would most probably favor bears. The accumulation territories at 1.2900 and 1.2850 would soon be tested.

3.png

USD/JPY: This market is neutral in the medium term, but bearish in the very short term. Yesterday, price trended lower, and further downwards movement could result in a bearish signal (especially when the support level at 109.00 is broken to the downside). A rally from here would force price back into the neutral zone.

4.png

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross opened this week with a minor gap-down and then trended lower. This price action has become a threat to the recent bullish bias on the market, for price has been coming down since it tested the supply zone at 131.50 last week (a drop of 110 pips). A further drop in price would ultimately lead to a bearish signal.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro analysis for 05/09/2017

Global macro analysis for 05/09/2017:

The UK Services PMI dipped to the 11-month low. According to the recent data from Markit, the UK Services PMI declined from 53.8 points to 53.3 points in the reported month. The reading was slightly below the expected figure of 53.5 and the lowest print since September 2016.

Despite the fact that UK service providers recorded solid rises in business activity and incoming new work during August, the pace of growth eased since July and remained notably weaker than seen on average in the first half of 2017. Moreover, the costs pressures across the service sector are rising: the costs of fuel, staff, and imported goods contributed to another solid increase in average prices charged by service providers in August. The increase in cost pressures will maintain concerns that underlying inflation will increase that eventually will make it more difficult to bring the inflation back to the Bank of England yearly target.

Overall business expectations strengthened to a 3-month high, although sentiment was still relatively subdued. There were further concerns surrounding both economic and political uncertainties and the fresh data are pointing out that the UK economy is slowly losing the momentum. This conclusion will directly impact the British Pound by depreciating the currency across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to bounce from the golden trend line support around the level of 1.2900, but the lack of upside momentum and neutral market conditions still make the GBP vulnerable to fall. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.2861.

analytics59ae712bbf263.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

North Korea and the ECB

North Korea and the ECB.

Morning review.

Monday passed in a sluggish trade. This is natural since the US had a holiday.

The main news has not changed. Markets are looking at the situation around North Korea and waiting for the ECB on Thursday.

In North Korea, it seems that the US has chosen a path of tightening sanctions (after North Korea tested a high-yield hydrogen bomb on the weekend). At the same time, South Korea conducted a large naval military exercises in response to North Korea's actions. South Korea reports that North Korea is preparing a new launch of its intercontinental missile.

The US demands to cut off supplies to North Korea. This is a request for China as it is the main "supplier" of North Korea. However, China still persists. In fact, China, pushing the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea, pushes the United States to a military strike against the regime of DPRK. How much did China correctly calculate its risks in doing so? We'll see.

For the rest, it is quiet. The markets are waiting for the ECB on Thursday.

EURUSD

There is consolidation. We are waiting for the breakthrough of borders and movement, either up or down with the situation practically being 50 to 50.

Upward levels: 1.1925; 1.1980; 1.2065

Down: 1.1845; 1.1820

analytics59ae4c36d49c4.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 05/09/2017

Bitcoin analysis for 05/09/2017:

The recent slide in the Bitcoin price was related to the news from China where in the near future, the Chinese government may decide to regulate the ICO - the ability to raise capital through new ideas based on the Blockchain technology. Despite the fact that the Chinese authorities have not issued any official bill, it is alleged that they perceive the ICO as a violation of the law on fundraising. Citing an anonymous source from the Caixin report, the People's Bank of China conducted research on ICO. As a result, it was concluded that many of the ICO's capital-raising projects violate the law: "more than 90% of ICO projects have violated the law regarding illegal capital collection or fraud. Only 1% of projects participating in ICO actually allocated the capital to develop the idea." Moreover, the source states that the rulers and experts have come to negative conclusions on ICO-related projects. Although most of the projects are trying to prove that they operate legally, they actually collect funds, breaking the letter of the law.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture on the H1 time frame. The price has slid just below the 61%Fibo in order to bounce from the golden trend line support around the level of $3,992. Currently, to get back to the uptrend, the bulls will have to break through the resistance zone between the levels of $4,377 - $4,470 (around the level of old 38% Fibo). This zone is located around the 50% Fibo of the leg down, so this is the main reason, why it is so important. From the Elliott Wave Principle point of view, the level of $3,992 is the bottom of the corrective zig-zag pattern of the wave (a).

analytics59ae6111d7316.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 05/09/2017

Global macro overview for 05/09/2017:

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the interest rates unchanged at the level of 1.50% as expected. In the Rate Statement, RBA said that the current monetary policy will be suitable for sustainable growth and inflation's return to the target. The rhetoric against AUD has not been tightened - it was reiterated that the strong AUD was ahead of growth prospects and employment and could be declining price pressures. But there is no sign of dovishness as the condition of the business and the labor market does not require it. On the other hand, loosening would jeopardize the stability of the housing market. Any interest rate hike has been also set aside at least until the second quarter of 2018.

The RBA commentary regarding the Australian Dollar exchange rate was unchanged. This is hardly surprising given that the AUD remains in the range of 0.7900-8000 against the US Dollar. In the statement, the RBA refers to "an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast". This approach is more realistic than attempting to talk down the AUD given that markets are almost certain that the RBA would neither cut rates nor intervene. The message implies that further increases in the exchange rate would threaten growth and inflation. The RBA current forecast for GDP growth in 2017 is 2.5%, lifting to 3.25% in 2018, and 3.5% in 2019. Nevertheless, as noted by the RBA, risks around the consumer activity associated with weak wages growth, ongoing spare capacity in the labour market and high household debt still threaten the current growth momentum.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market keeps bouncing from the 38% Fibo support at the level of 0.7876 but is still too weak to break through the technical resistance at the level of 0.7996. The momentum is still above the fifty level, but there are the first signs of a growing bearish divergence.

analytics59ae5c0c2475f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for September 04, 2017

Forex analysis review
Bitcoin analysis for September 04, 2017

Trading plan for 05/09/2017

Trading plan for 05/09/2017:

Another report of possible North Korean missile tests again dominated the mood on the financial markets and brought risk aversion moves. The JPY and CHF are the strongest major currencies, Gold is gaining as well. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not surprise by the decision or the announcement, but the AUD is a bit stronger after the published data.

On Tuesday 5th of September, the event calendar is busy with important news releases. The London session will be dominated by a set of PMIs releases (services and composite) from across the Eurozone. Moreover, Switzerland will post the Gross Domestic Product data. Later on, during the US session, Canada will post Housing Starts data and the US will post Factory Orders data.

EUR/USD analysis for 05/09/2017:

The PMI Services and Composite data are scheduled for release during all early morning. The latest news from the Eurozone economy was good and showed the ongoing steady pace of growth with elevated levels of business and consumers sentiment. This is why the PMI data are expected to be released in line with or better than investors' expectations. All the PMIs, regardless of the sector, are still above the fifty level that separates the expansion from contraction. So only a huge, unexpected slide to the downside in data would impact the Euro currency across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The market bounced up from the dashed trend line again, but the sideway move looks corrective in nature. The volatility is currently limited and the weekend gap still hasn't been filled yet. The technical support zone between the levels of 1.1817 - 1.1865 is still the most important zone for the bulls. Any violation of this zone would likely lead to a test of the recent swing low at the level of 1.1662.

analytics59ae52dfe9a7c.jpg

Market Snapshot: Gold still at swing highs

The price of Gold is still consolidating the recent gains at the swing high levels of $1,338. Due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, the weekend gap hasn't been filled yet and the technical support at the level of $1,325 hasn't been tested as well. Nevertheless, it is worth to mention that the bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator has been reflected in this time frame. It suggests that the corrective cycle can occur anytime soon.

analytics59ae52f0100a9.jpg

Market Snapshot: USD/CHF locked inside the horizontal zone

The price of USD/CHF has been trading close to the recent swing lows at the level of 0.9426, but bounced strongly last week, leaving a hammer candlestick pattern. Nevertheless, the bulls were not strong enough to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 0.9772, which is the key level to the upside. Currently, the market is trading in the middle of a range, but might slide to the downside as soon as the geopolitical tensions will escalate further.

analytics59ae52fa22e4f.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for September 5, 2017

Not much action was seen yesterday due to the US holiday. The US dollar index is moving sideways between 92.85 and 92.30. Daily trend remains bearish. A new lower low is expected before a bigger bounce.

analytics59ae50dc6e72a.png

Price is moving lower but has entered the Ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour chart. Breaking above the cloud will open the way for a push higher towards 93.50. Support is found at 92.30. Breaking it will open the way for a push to new lows.

analytics59ae51185c361.png

Red lines - bearish channel

The US dollar index daily chart is not looking good as the price cannot break above the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) and is now breaking below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator). This is a bearish sign. Trend remains bearish on a daily basis as long as price is below 95.10. A bounce towards 94-95 is expected once we make one more new low around 90.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for September 5, 2017

Gold price is moving sideways in the intraday chart. Medium and longer-term trend remains bullish and we continue to see a move above $1,400 over the coming months. However there are increased chances of a Gold pullback over the next 1-2 weeks towards $1,300.

analytics59ae4f8145cea.jpg

Red lines - bullish channel

In the short term, price is clearly bullish. There are some topping signs by the oscillators that provide a short-term warning for bulls. We could see a 10-30$ decline soon. Support is at $1.331 and the next at $1,320.

analytics59ae4fe869b6b.jpg

Magenta line - resistance

Blue line - support

On a weekly basis, we are in a bullish break out above the weekly Kumo. Technical resistance is at $1,350 by the magenta trend line. I expect the Gold price to reach and most probably break the resistance trend line. I do not expect price to move back below the weekly Kumo, although a pullback is possible. I do not trade pullbacks, pullbacks are buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for September 5, 2017

GBP/USD has been quite corrective recently inside the range of 1.2800 to 1.3050 area. The US holiday at the beginning of the week left the pair with less liquidity in the market resulting in minimal market pressure and correction. Today, the UK BRC Sales Monitor report was published with a rise to 1.3% from the previous value of 0.9%, but the report still could not show any directional bias in this pair. Moreover, the UK Services PMI report is going to be published today which is expected to have slight decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.8. On the other hand, FOMC Member Brainard is going to speak today about the US key interest rates and future monetary policies that is expected to reveal the neutral stance. Factory Orders report is expected to show a decrease to -3.3% from the previous value of 3.0%, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is expected to have a slight increase to 53.1 from the previous figure of 52.2. Later today, FOMC Member Kashkari is also going to speak about the interest rates and future monetary policies of the nation. To sum up, a batch of high impact economic reports from the UK and the US are going to be published today that is expected to bring in more liquidity and volatility in the market. A directional bias is likely to be detected in the market by the daily close. In the current scenario, USD is expected to have an upper hand over GBP and dominate it further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has been quite corrective in nature after being respected by the trend line of March 2017. As the price remains below the trend line and 1.3050-1.3120 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with a recent target towards 1.2750-1.2800 support area in the coming days.

analytics59ae4f9ee16b1.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for September 05, 2017

NZDUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements since last week. There are no changes in our technical outlook. It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.7202 to the bottom around 0.7142. Today, the current price is seen at the level of 0.7170. the first resistance level is seen at 0.7202 followed by 0.7239, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.7100. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.7142. So it will be good to sell at 0.7142 with the first target of 0.7100. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.7064 (support 2). The strong daily support is seen at the 0.7064 level, which represents a new double bottom on the H1 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to trade between 0.7202 and 0.7064 in coming hours. The price area of 0.7202 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.7202 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.7239, then a stop loss should be set at the price of 0.7280.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for September 05, 2017

USDCHFH1.png

Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.9558. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel and the price is seen at the 0.9558 level. The USD/CHF pair probably continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9558. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9558 to a top around 0.9670. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9693 followed by 0.9725, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9558 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9639 and 0.9725; so we expect a range of 86 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9693. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9558 with the first target at 0.9693 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.9725. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.9725 is a good place to take profit because it will form a major resistance today. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the support level of 0.9558, then this scenario may become invalidated.
USD-CHFH1.png
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for September 5, 2017

analytics59ae20af55340.png

Wave summary:

We continue to look for a deeper corrective decline in red wave iv, ideally closer to 1.6171 before turning higher again in red wave v. That said, we have to remember that we currently are in the wave iii/ of iii, which normally is the strongest part of the trend, so we should be aware of the possibility that the correction will be sub-normal and move directly higher through resistance at 1.6672 towards 1.6969.

R3: 1.6710

R2: 1.6632

R1: 1.6610

Pivot: 1.6600

S1: 1.6540

S2: 1.6435

S3: 1.6348

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a EUR-buying opportunity in the 1.6171 - 1.6348 area or upon a direct break above 1.6672.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 5, 2017

analytics59ae1f316a93a.png

Wave summary:

Support at 129.64 should be able to protect the downside for the next rally higher towards 134.80 and the long-term target for wave D at 137.36. An unexpected break below support at 129.64, will shift the top of wave i forward to the 131.71 higher and the ongoing decline from this high as a wave ii correction with an ideal target set at 129.12 before turning higher again.

R3: 131.71

R2: 131.38

R1: 130.69

Pivot: 130.00

S1: 129.64

S2: 129.12

S3: 128.50

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 128.50 with stop placed at 129.55. If you are not long EUR yet, the buy a break above 131.38 and use the same stop at 129.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Sept 05, 2017

EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Revised GDP q/q, Retail Sales m/m, Final Services PMI, German Final Services PMI, French Final Services PMI, Italian Services PMI, and Spanish Services PMI. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and Factory Orders m/m, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a ... volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1950.

Strong Resistance:1.1943.

Original Resistance: 1.1932.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1921.

Target Inner Area: 1.1893.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1865.

Original Support: 1.1854.

Strong Support: 1.1843.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1836.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Sept 05, 2017

USDJPY.jpg

IIn Asia, Japan will release the 10-y Bond Auction data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and Factory Orders m/m. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.09.

Resistance. 2: 109.88.

Resistance. 1: 109.66.

Support. 1: 109.40.

Support. 2: 109.19.

Support. 3: 108.97.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell once again

The price has dropped perfectly to our profit target. We remain bearish below 130.87 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to 130.04 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support).

RSI (34) sees descending resistance pushing the price down really well. It also has good downside potential for a further drop.

Sell below 130.87. Stop loss is at 131.41. Take profit is at 130.04.

analytics59adf54507747.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF testing key support, time to start buying

The price is testing major support at 0.9553 (Fibonacci extension, Fibonacci retracement, bullish price action) and we expect a bounce above this level for a push up to at least 0.9653 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, price gap).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.8% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 0.9553. Stop loss is at 0.9518. Take profit is at 0.9653.

analytics59adf5089ccf3.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD now testing major resistance, start selling

The price is now testing major resistance at 1.1918 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, bearish price action, Fibonacci extension) and we expect a strong reaction from this level to push the price down to 1.1825 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 94% where we expect a drop from.

Sell below 1.1918. Stop loss is at 1.1955. Take profit is at 1.1825.

analytics59adf4cb7634f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY prepare to buy above major support

The price is now testing major support at 109.40 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a bounce above this level for a push up to at least 110.21 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, price gap).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is fast approaching strong support at 3.4% and we expect a bounce above this level.

Buy above 109.40. Stop loss is at 108.97. Take profit is at 110.21.

analytics59adf48a5d02a.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/JPY gapped down to our profit target. Prepare to buy on major support

The price has gapped down to our profit target perfectly. We prepare to buy above major support at 87.00 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a bounce up to at least 87.78 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, price gap).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.9% where we expect a bounce from.

Buy above 87.00. Stop loss is at 86.52. Take profit is at 87.78.

analytics59adf3bc667bf.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD prepare to buy on major support

We prepare to buy above major support at 0.7921 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci extension) for a bounce above this level to at least 0.7994 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is fast approaching 4% support where we expect a bounce from soon.

Buy above 0.7921. Stop loss is at 0.7896. Take profit is at 0.7994.

analytics59adf35792ec3.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for September 04, 2017

Monday's session was closed in the U.S. as the Labour day holidays came in and USDX didn't have significant moves in favor or against the dominant trend. If the index manages to break below the support level of 92.34, one could expect a bearish acceleration towards August 29th lows around 91.67. MACD indicator remains in the negative territory.

1504556086_USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 94.04

H1 chart's support levels: 92.34 / 91.67

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 92.34, take profit is at 91.67 and stop loss is at 93.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for September 05, 2017

The pair didn't have major actions during Monday's session and the price action was mostly on the side of the bears across the board. Still, the pair looks to consolidate above the 200 SMA at H1 chart. To the upside, the critical levels are placed around 1.2958 and 1.3013, and while the pair remains above that moving average, such levels could be reached in the short-term.

1504555966_GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2958 / 1.3013

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2842 / 1.2761

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2958, take profit is at 1.3013 and stop loss is at 1.2903.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Australia is betting on business

The Australian dollar continues to struggle for the status of the best performer of the G10 and, judging by the economic calendar, pretends to be the most interesting currency of the week. Indeed, the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the release of data on GDP and retail sales make it possible to expect increased attention from investors, even if the external background does not change drastically.

The main drivers of the more than 10% rally of the AUD/USD were not internal factors. The Fed is seen to postpone an increase in the rate of federal funds in the conditions of slowing inflation and growing political risks. US stock indices have chosen a comfortable area near historical highs, while the steadily low volatility of financial markets fuels interest in income assets. At the same time, there is a recovery in commodity prices, including iron ore, which is extremely important for Australian exports.

Dynamics of rates of the Australian debt market and prices for iron ore

analytics59ad507beea81.png

Source: Bloomberg.

At the same time, the situation inside the country remains mixed. After growth for most of the year, the Economic Surprise Index went down in the third quarter, which, under conditions of a weak US dollar, contributed to the consolidation in the AUD/USD pair. It is unusual that the indices of consumer and business confidence went on different roads, which can not accurately reflect the current problems of the Australia's economy.

Dynamics of the indices of economic surprises, consumer and business confidence

analytics59ad50867d61a.png

Source: Bloomberg.

While firms raised their investment forecast to 17.6%, which is the best figure for the indicator for the last seven years, households suffer from excessive credit debts (representing 190% of income), rising energy prices, and sluggish wage increases. Theoretically, the economy is approaching the state of full employment (in the last six months the indicator has increased by 200, 000) and the growth of business investment can push up labor compensation and inflation, forcing the Reserve Bank to raise rates.

In fact, the tightening of monetary policy by the RBA (interest rate swaps estimate the probability of raising the cash rate from the current 1.5% by June 2018 to 50%) will fall on the shoulders of local companies. Many of them are export oriented, and the 10% strengthening of the "Aussie" was clearly not part of their plans. As a result, the positive balance of trade in the second quarter declined for the first time in 2 years, and the central bank took a rather tough position in relation to the "bulls" for the AUD/USD.

Commonwealth Bank forecasts that by the end of 2018 the pair will rise to the level of 0.85. However, in the short term, the correction risks increased due to the worsening global demand for profitable assets amid the escalation of geopolitical problems, as well as the uncertainty associated with the state debt ceiling and tax reform in USA.

Technically, the AUD/USD pair continues to trade in the range of 0.782 to 0.799. Breakthrough of its upper limit will increase the risks of implementing the target by 113% according to the "Shark" pattern. On the contrary, a successful test of support at 0.782 will inspire the "bears" to develop a corrective movement.

AUD/USD, daily chart

analytics59ad5091b48c5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for September 4, 2017

Bitcoin has surged lower as expected towards the support area of 3,917.20 from 4,386.80 recently. Bitcoin is viewed as a safe-heaven asset by investors but due to banning initial coin offerings by China the cryptocurrency has seen some fall at present The impact is expected to be quite limited in nature and the bullish trend is expected to be quite intact. The Bitcoin strength is expected to be quite unbeatable due to more popularity of the cryptocurrency in many countries and a decentralized mechanism of the system. Currently the price is residing at the edge of the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is holding the price now from more downward pressure whereas Chikou Span is also showing some evidence of a further bounce off the support area and the dynamic level. As the price remains above the lower support level of 3,917.20, the bullish bias is expected to continue further. The Bitcoin is expected to reach 4,500.00 resistance and later 5,000.00 price level very soon as the bullish bias continues without any corrective and volatile counter moves along the way.

analytics59ad7b39cafd2.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com