GBP/USD Intraday High&Low Projection For April 17, 2020

analytics5e9936940264d.jpg

The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) today are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under the normal market conditions, but sometimes the price can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.3079.

STDV 9 - 1.3022.

STDV 8 - 1.2965.

STDV 7 - 1.2908.

STDV 6 - 1.2851.

STDV 5 - 1.2794.

STDV 4 - 1.2737.

STDV 3 - 1.2680.

STDV 2 - 1.2623.

STDV 1 - 1.2566.

CBDR - 1.2509.

==================

CBDR - 1.2452.

STDV 1 - 1.2395.

STDV 2 - 1.2338.

STDV 3 - 1.2281.

STDV 4 - 1.2224.

STDV 5 - 1.2167.

STDV 6 - 1.2110.

STDV 7 - 1.2053.

STDV 8 - 1.1996.

STDV 9 - 1.1939.

STDV 10 - 1.1882.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range such at 1.2737, & the previous Day High 1.2526 with the Previous Day Low of 1.2407. All these levesl can be a potential turning point level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Intraday High&Low Projection or April 17, 2020

analytics5e99356aa555a.jpg

The High Of The Day and Low Of The Day from the Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) today are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 under the normal market conditions, but sometimes the price can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6. Here are the levels for today:

STDV 10 - 1.1297.

STDV 9 - 1.1255.

STDV 8 - 1.1213.

STDV 7 - 1.1171.

STDV 6 - 1.1129.

STDV 5 - 1.1087.

STDV 4 - 1.1045.

STDV 3 - 1.1003.

STDV 2 - 1.0961.

STDV 1 - 1.0919.

CBDR - 1.0877.

==================

CBDR - 1.0835.

STDV 1 - 1.0793.

STDV 2 - 1.0751.

STDV 3 - 1.0709.

STDV 4 - 1.0667.

STDV 5 - 1.0625.

STDV 6 - 1.0583.

STDV 7 - 1.0541.

STDV 8 - 1.0499.

STDV 9 - 1.0457.

STDV 10 - 1.0415.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday's range at 1.1213, 1.1002, 1.0583 & the previous Day High 1.0912 with the Previous Day Low 1.0817. All these levels can be a potential turning point level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for 17/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has fell out of the parallel channel and made a local low at the level of 1.2411. This last wave up has been made despite the overbought market conditions, but now the short-term trend line do not provide the support anymore so the market is coming off the overbought conditions. The bears are in control of the market and the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.2411 and 1.2350. The larger time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2914

WR2 - 1.2699

WR1 - 1.2595

Weekly Pivot - 1.2369

WS1 - 1.2287

WS2 - 1.2048

WS3 - 1.1960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

analytics5e99486ab58b6.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro and British pound increase sharply amid economic data from China.

Positive economic data from China gave investors hope that the ongoing crisis may be not as terrible as forecast. The euro and the British pound strengthened after the report on the Chinese industrial production amid increased risk appetite.

Signals for the EUR/USD pair:

If the pair breaks through the level of 1.0905, the euro is likely to rise to 1.0965 and 1.1040.

A breakthrough at 1.0857 may lead to the sell-off of the euro at 1.0814 and 1.0770.

Signals for the GBP/USD pair:

The euro is expected to increase to 1.2573 and 1.2632, if the pair breaks through the level of 1.2525.

A breakthrough at 1.2493 is likely lead to the sell-off of the pound at 1.2402 and 1.2294.

Fundamental data:

Germany's consumer price index data and the number of the first-time jobless claims in the US are set for releas today.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for April 17, 2020

analytics5e9933bd32497.jpg

The trading-range has narrowed even more over the last 24 hours. This means EUR/GBP is trading within a range of 0.8682 - 0.8726. We see this as a build up of energy for the final dip closer to our ideal target at 0.8621 which should conclude wave 2 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally to above 0.9499.

Short-term a break above resistance at 0.8793 will confirm that wave 2 has completed and wave 3 to above 0.9499 is in motion.

R3: 0.8765

R2: 0.8745

R1: 0.8739

Pivot: 0.8702

S1: 0.8685

S2: 0.8650

S3: 0.8621

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 0.8635 or upon a break above 0.8765

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 17, 2020

analytics5e9932645d274.jpg

GBP/JPY has tested short-term key support at 133.69 a couple of time without being able to break below. We still favor a break being seen near term for confirmation that wave iv has completed and wave v to below 123.99 is in motion. That said, the risk for one more pop towards 137.15 remains in place as long as key support at 133.69 hasn't been broken.

R3: 136.36

R2: 135.40

R1: 135.02

Pivot: 133.69

S1: 132.97

S2: 132.41

S3: 131.41

Trading recommendation:

We are short GBP from 134.35 with our stop placed at 135.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for 17/04/2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has fallen towards the level of 1.0816 after the Bearish Engulfing pattern made at the top of the last wave up at the level of 1.0990 has been the trigger for bears to more actively push on the rate. The momentum gone negative and the market went off the overbought levels as well, so more downside is still expected. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.0778 - 1.0676, which is the key technical support for the EUR/USD in the short-term. No indication of any short-term trend change yet.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1207

WR2 - 1.1072

WR1 - 1.1024

Weekly Pivot - 1.0897

WS1 - 1.0839

WS2 - 1.0706

WS3 - 1.0650

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. ON the EUR/USD pair the main trend is down, but the reversal is possible when the coronavirus pandemic will be tamed. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

analytics5e99478cc7843.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for 17/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Chainalysis organized a webinar to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on cryptographic crimes. During this meeting, the company revealed that criminals are selling coronavirus infected blood at Darknet.

According to Chainalysis, Darknet markets were not immune to the negative effects of a pandemic, with a 33% decrease in the number of cryptocurrencies sent to fraud addresses. Cybercriminals have reacted in various ways to the crisis. Some showed restraint by following the code of honor they imposed. Others have fallen to a new level of amorality.

In a particularly hideous form, the Darknet vendor claims he is offering for sale blood infected with coronavirus, which he claims he has injected into bats. The store owner claims that blood was taken from his hospitalized father. It counts 0.005 BTC per bat. It is unclear whether the seller actually sells infected blood or just wants to extort victims from their Bitcoins.

On the other hand, some Darknet operators show signs of dignity. Many sites banned the sale of "drugs" on COVID-19, and DoppelPaymer ransomware administrator said it would not launch attacks on hospitals during the crisis.

It is unclear whether the current crisis will have a profound impact on the world of cryptocurrency crimes. For now, the industry continues to monitor and fight illegal Blockchain transactions where possible.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken out of the descending channel recently and made a new local high at the level of $7,140. Nevertheless, this high has produced a Pin Bar candlestick pattern that indicated the bears are now trying to regain the control over the market. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $7,212. The key technical resistance is still seen at the level of $7,386. The larger time frame trend remains down, but the short-term momentum is slowly increasing, so the odds for an upwards breakout might be high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $8,127

WR2 - $7,746

WR1 - $7,416

Weekly Pivot - $7,017

WS1 - $6,690

WS2 - $6,300

WS3 - $5,960

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in Bitcoin and treat BTC as a digital gold. The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5e994662345d1.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for 17/04/2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Google recently removed 49 phishing extensions from Google Chrome. The removed extensions include those that were directed to the owners of hardware wallets produced by Ledger, Trezor and KeepKey as well as users of the Jaxx, MyEtherWallet, Metamask, Exodus and Electrum software wallets.

Extensions caused users to enter the credentials needed to access the wallet - such as mnemonic phrases, private keys and key files - and sent them to hackers who could then steal cryptocurrencies in their wallets. Some extensions also had a fake five star rating in the Chrome extension store, but the reviews contained little or no information.

One of the extensions reportedly had the same review copied and pasted eight times by different users. This email provided an introduction to Bitcoin and explained why MyEtherWallet - the target wallet of the extension - was the preferred wallet option. It's worth noting that MyEtherWallet doesn't really support Bitcoin.

The study revealed 14 control servers behind all extensions, but the analysis revealed that some servers were managed by the same people and the oldest domain is connected to many other control servers. Denley then came to the conclusion that the same hackers are behind most extensions.

Some domains used in phishing campaigns were relatively old, but 80% of them were registered in March and April 2020. Most extensions were published in the Chrome store this month.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been continuing the recent bounce, but was rejected at the technical resistance located at the level of $174.99. There was a Pin Bar candlestick pattern made at the top of the move and the market is currently consolidating the recent gains. The nearest support is seen at the level of $164.21. The key technical support remains at the level of $149.53, but is a case of a violation, the next support is seen at the level of $142.77. Any bullish attempt to rally is being used as a good chance to sell the ETH for a better price so far.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $213.33

WR2 - $193.74

WR1 - $179.45

Weekly Pivot - $159.49

WS1 - $145.21

WS2 - $125.44

WS3 - $111.55

Trading Recommendations:

The fear of the coronavirus consequences is very strong among the global investors and it rules on the financial markets. So far the global investors are not so keen to invest in cryptocurrency, because they are being perceived as risky assets. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $214.67 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred.

analytics5e9944de246f6.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 17. Pound sellers achieved their goal and retreated from weekly lows

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

I drew attention to the support test of 1.2402 in my review yesterday, which was the main goal of sellers this week. I also advised opening long positions from it, which along with good data on the Chinese economy made it possible for you to make a profit of more than 100 points. The current challenge for buyers of the British pound is to hold the 1.2493 level, and forming a false breakout on it in the first half of the day will be a great signal for opening new long positions in anticipation of continued upward correction to the high of 1.2573, where I recommend to take profit. The long-term goal of the bulls is still the 1.2632 area. If the demand for the pound slows down after the correction to the support of 1.2493, it is best to return to long positions only after a test of the low of 1.2402. Given that no important fundamental data on the UK economy is released today, buyers of the pound may try to take the market under their control.

analytics5e9939696b78c.jpg

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound perfectly coped with the task of testing support for 1.2402 yesterday, then they retreated from the market, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart. The goal for the first half of the day is to return and consolidate below the 1.2493 level, which will make it possible to form a new resistance of 1.2505 in the US session and will then be a signal to open short positions in the expectation of a repeated decline to the low of 1.2402, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls are stronger and manage to maintain the optimism received after the data on the Chinese economy, it is best to return to short positions immediately on the rebound from the major resistance of 1.2573, where a large surge in volume will be recorded, also indicating the exit of speculative buyers from the market.

analytics5e99397e0d27c.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates a clear attempt by the bulls to seize the initiative.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator at 1.2525 may lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In the event of a decline, you can look at purchases on the test of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2430 area.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 17. Expectation of a rapid recovery in the Chinese economy revived demand

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers of the euro yesterday coped with their weekly task and reached the support of 1.0814, from which I advised to open long positions. The increase in applications for unemployment benefits in the US led to a stronger dollar, but today's data on the Chinese economy, where industrial production was nearly not affected by the coronavirus, and the decline in GDP fully coincided with the economists' forecasts, caused the euro to strengthen. Now the bulls are actively fighting for 1.0857, a false breakout on it will be a signal to open long positions in the hope of continuing the growth of EUR/USD to the resistance area of 1.0905, where I recommend taking profits today. We can expect a breakout of 1.0905 only if good eurozone inflation data comes out, which will lead the pair to a high of 1.0965, but the indicator could be much worse than economists' forecasts. If the pressure on the euro returns in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions again when testing the week's low of 1.0814, or buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound from the April low of 1.0770.

analytics5e9936d5061cb.jpg

To open short positions on EUR USD you need:

Sellers of the euro achieved a test low of 1.0814, which is clearly visible on the 5-minute chart, and afterwards, they retreated from the market. Now the entire focus is shifted to the 1.0857 area, and the primary task of the bears is to return EUR/USD to this range. This option will raise the pressure on the pair and lead to a repeat test of this week's low of 1.0814, which will preserve the chance of updating the larger support of 1.0770, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a further upward correction, I recommend returning to long positions only when a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.0905, which may occur after the release of weak data on inflation in the eurozone. If you grow above the 1.0905 level, it is best to open short positions immediately for a rebound only after testing the high of 1.0965.

analytics5e9936e942b05.jpg

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which acts as resistance at the moment.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

Growth could be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0890. The pair will be supported by the lower border at 1.0825.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

analytics5e9928d1932b6.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.27622

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.19800

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.31922

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDJPY showing a trendline breakout and pullback! Further drop to come!

analytics5e9929fd6944d.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 68.883

Reason for Entry: ascending trendline resistance pull back, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 66.486

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 69.689

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDJPY showing a trendline breakout and pullback! Further drop to come!

analytics5e9929fd6944d.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 68.883

Reason for Entry: ascending trendline resistance pull back, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 66.486

Reason for Take Profit: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 69.689

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing high, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD testing 1st support, potential bounce!

analytics5e9929925bd6f.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.4058

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback support

Take Profit : 1.4277

Reason for Take Profit: 100% Fibonacci extension , 50% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.3849

Reason for Stop loss: Graphical swing low

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

analytics5e9928d1932b6.jpg

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.27622

Reason for Entry: horizontal pullback resistance, 61.8% fibonacci extension, 78.6% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 1.19800

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.31922

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 17, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro continued its planned decline from a technical point of view on Thursday. Losses amounted to 70 points as investors withdrew to a safe dollar, since the latest data on new weekly applications for unemployment benefits reached 5.245 million and bookmarks of new homes fell to 2.22 million in March against the expectation of 1.31 million. In addition, the business index activity in the manufacturing sector of Philadelphia fell from -12.7 to -56.6 in April, to a record since August 1980.

analytics5e9922475408b.jpg

The price is decreasing under the balance and MACD indicator lines on the daily scale chart, and the Marlin oscillator is fixed in the decline zone. We expect the euro to support the embedded price channel line around 1.0610.

analytics5e992259d055f.jpg

The price is also under the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart, Marlin is in the negative trend territory.

The signal level for opening sales is the April 8 low at a price of 1.0830. Stop loss at 1.0880, take profit before 1.0610. Intermediate goal of 1.0768.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 17, 2020

USD/JPY

As we expected in the last review, the USD/JPY pair slightly expanded the accumulation range to the level of 108.10 along the upper border. On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned down from the border with the growth territory, which empirically caused the price to turn down.

analytics5e991ca8ace08.jpg

At the same time, the actual line of the oscillator formed a wedge, which creates a condition for the indicator to break down. With the highest probability, the price will work out support on the nearest line at 106.88, overcoming which eventually opens the goal of 102.50.

analytics5e991cbb2c970.jpg

The price turned down from the MACD line on the H4 price scale, Marlin is trying to return to the declining trend zone.

It is possible to open a short trading position from current levels, however, with a reduced lot. Stop loss over yesterday's high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 17, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar could not develop a downward movement when the technical support made an exit yesterday. This morning, it again went over the balance and MACD indicator lines, repeating the false exit on the 13-14. At the moment, the price has stopped at the resistance of the embedded line of the descending price channel. In this situation, we no longer consider options with further price growth, in particular to the price channel line at 0.6535, as working options. Consolidating the aussie above 0.6535 will bring growth scenarios back into action. Until then, the price can wind up on the MACD line, creating a false signal in either direction.

analytics5e991f0add9d0.jpg

The main option for the price development is its reversal in the near future and working out the first goal of 0.6180. Going below the level opens the main goal of 0.5805 near the support of the embedded line of the price channel.

analytics5e991f1d58538.jpg

The price breaks through the MACD line on the four-hour chart. Consolidating above it will allow the pair to wander up to 0.6535 for some time. The signal for a decline will be when the price leaves the area below the April 15 low of 0.6285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 17. Brexit negotiations will resume between Britain and the European Union in a video

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e98f2820dd7e.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -104.5099

Following the European currency, the British pound also settled below the moving average line in trading on Thursday, April 16. Traders found no reason to resume the upward movement. Thus, now the pound/dollar pair can try in the future to fall to 1.2200 – the previous local minimum. Traders yesterday confidently ignored the important report on unemployment in the US, and the US currency managed to even rise in price during the publication of the report.

The UK risks in the near future "catching up" with France, Italy, and Spain in the number of patients with "coronavirus", as well as in the number of deaths from this disease. Experts continue to note the belated response of the British government to the pandemic, as well as extremely loyal quarantine measures in place in the country. It is due to these two factors that the number of sick and fatal cases in the country continues to increase, while in Spain and Italy, there is a decrease in the growth rate of morbidity and mortality, and even begin to slowly weaken the quarantine measures. In the past 10 days, between 700 and 900 people have died every day in Britain. According to the forecasts of medical experts, it is the UK that will soon become the center of the pandemic in Europe, and the number of infections and deaths in this country will continue to grow. Experts also note that the country's authorities do not take into account the death statistics cases when a patient died outside the hospital, thus underestimating the real number of deaths. The chief health officer of Britain, Chris Whitty, believes that the peak of the disease has not yet passed.

Meanwhile, despite the "coronavirus" pandemic, the date of July 1 is steadily approaching, when Brussels and London must officially decide whether they extend the "transition period" or whether the final break between the EU and the Kingdom will take place on December 31, 2020 without any postponements. Initially, Boris Johnson was categorically opposed to any extension of the "transition period", even though there was little chance of an agreement with Brussels in just 10 months. Now we are not talking about 10 months, but at best two and a half. It is during this period, and at a time when both the UK and the EU are raging COVID-2019 virus pandemic, the parties need to discuss a huge agreement that will determine the future relationship between the parties after the final "divorce". What the parties will be able to agree on in 2.5 months is unclear, if initially, the European Union said that even 1 year is very little, citing the example of negotiations with Canada or Australia, which lasted for 7-8 years. However, the fact remains. Michel Barnier and David Frost will resume negotiations. By the way, it should be noted that negotiations between London and Washington, also concerning trade relations after Brexit, remain frozen at the moment. We have previously said that London needs a trade deal with the EU, and even better with both the EU and the US. If there are no such deals, then Brexit, in fact, will be "hard", that is, without any agreements. And this will be a new, additional blow to the UK economy, which is now weakened not only by Brexit itself (recall that due to the withdrawal from the Alliance, Britain has been losing 70 billion pounds every year since 2016), but also by the epidemic, which threatens the British economy with a 35% reduction in the second quarter alone. And given the fact that the "peak" of the epidemic has not yet passed, the losses may be much more severe. However, according to many experts, conducting video conversations is only an appearance that the parties are involved in the process. Experts believe that video conversations will not replace face-to-face meetings and their effectiveness will be much lower, which will be one of the main factors for the success of any negotiations under tight deadlines.

According to unconfirmed information, in connection with the "coronavirus" pandemic, both sides are ready for the option that will have to postpone the final exit of Britain from the European Union for a year or two. After all, the epidemic is making its own adjustments to the plans of the British and European governments.

On the last trading day of the week, no macroeconomic publications are scheduled either in the United States or in the UK. However, this does not matter, since the pound/dollar currency pair continues to ignore any statistics, as does the euro/dollar pair. The pair's quotes were fixed below the moving average line yesterday, so the trend has changed to a downward one. The lower channel of linear regression is still directed up, and the higher channel is directed down, which leaves approximately equal chances of both growth and decline. From a fundamental point of view, it is impossible to say now what is more likely than the beginning of a downward trend or the resumption of an upward trend.

analytics5e98f2945db2d.jpg

The average volatility of the pound/dollar pair has stopped decreasing and is currently 119 points. In the last 15 trading days, the pair almost every day passes from 100 to 200 points. Therefore, we can say that volatility is now stable. On Friday, April 17, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2327 and 1.2565. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2451

S2 - 1.2390

S3 - 1.2329

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2512

R2 - 1.2573

R3 - 1.2634

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar pair broke the moving average line on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to sell the pound with the goals of 1.2390 and 1.2329 and keep the short positions open until the Heiken Ashi turns up. It is recommended to consider new buy positions not earlier than the reverse overcoming of the moving average with the first goal of 1.2565.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 17. The "coronavirus" epidemic has leveled the three main trump cards of Donald Trump's

4-hour timeframe

analytics5e98f2216618d.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -200.5763

The euro/dollar currency pair starts the fifth trading day of the week with a downward movement. Thus, our assumption of a side channel in the area of 1.0850-1.1000 is still valid, but there is a high probability of canceling this assumption. At the moment, traders show their desire is in a trend movement and, most likely, it will be downward. Successful overcoming of the Murray level of "1/8"-1.0864 indirectly signals continued demand for the US currency. Volatility remains moderate in strength in the current environment.

The US dollar is again in demand on the international currency market. Despite the fact that it is the United States that leads the world in the number of "coronavirus" diseases and deaths from the epidemic. Despite the fact that it was the US government and the Fed that had to pour trillions of dollars into the economy to save it from a crushing fall. Despite the fact that the Fed lowered the key rate "almost to zero". Despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics from across the ocean time after time come super negative. Moreover, market participants continue to simply ignore all these fundamental and macroeconomic factors. If you look at the picture of the movement of the euro/dollar pair in the last two months, the naked eye can see a panic wave up (February 20-March 9) and an equally panic wave down (March 10-March 20). That is, two panic waves took just exactly a month. After that, each next turn is weaker than the previous one. That is, since March 20, which also means that for almost a month, traders have been calming down. However, this calm will end either with the pair going flat (as we have already said around 1.0850-1.1000) or a new trend will start. If we try to look at the chart impartially, we can conclude that the trend will be downward. This assumption can be confirmed if the pair successfully overcomes the lows of March 6. It turns out that further downward movement again will not be justified fundamentally. In other words, traders will simply continue to buy the US currency. Based on what? It turns out that again on the basis of a simple and banal belief that anything can happen in the world, but the US dollar will always be there. This means that it is best to keep your savings in it. That's all the logic of the market at the moment.

Only one publication is scheduled for the last trading day of the week. In the European Union, the consumer price index for March will be known. This indicator is likely to slow down to 0.7% in annual terms and is 100% likely to be ignored by the markets. Also tomorrow night, statistics will be published, which is very interesting, and also will not have any meaning for the euro/dollar currency pair. This is a package of data from China for March. Last month was a failure for the Chinese economy, as in February, the "coronavirus" was already raging in the Middle Kingdom. It was only in March that it came to Europe and the United States. In March, a new reduction in the most significant indicators for China is expected. But the rate of decline in indicators will slow down. For example, in industrial production (compared to -13.5% a month earlier) is expected to be -7.3% y/y and -10% in retail sales (in February -20.5%). Also, the Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter will be released and it will make up -6.5% in annual terms, and -9.9% in quarterly terms. Thus, based on these figures, we can understand approximately what to expect from similar indicators of the Eurozone and the United States for March-April 2020. Well, no more publications are planned for Friday, April 17.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump at a regular briefing at the White House, still without a mask, as before, announced that the "peak" of the epidemic in the United States has passed. Already tonight, the US President will publish the principles on which the American economy will be released from quarantine. This process is expected to start in late April or early May. "The battle continues, but the data shows that our country has passed the peak of infection," said Donald Trump. It is expected that Trump will "open" the least affected and infected states of the country and leave in effect the quarantine in the most affected areas of COVID-2019 in the United States. Recall that, according to the latest information, the number of people infected with "coronavirus" has grown to 2.1 million people worldwide. The United States still has the largest number of infected people – 640,000. At the same time, official statistics say that on April 15, the largest number of people died from the pandemic in the United States for all time – 2,569, and newly infected people were added in the amount of almost 30,000. Therefore, it is still difficult to understand what "passing of the peak" Trump is talking about. More and more media, analysts, political scientists and experts in various fields agree that Trump's rush to end the quarantine is due to only one thing – his rapidly falling chances of re-election in November. As many experts note, although Trump's political ratings during the epidemic are the highest for the entire time of the presidency, the Trump team during the election campaigns will need not just to promise a "bright future", as the Democrats can do, but to provide concrete results of their work in recent years. A few months ago, Donald Trump could claim that it was under him that the US economy flourished in a new way, unemployment fell to 50-year lows, and the labor market gained extraordinary strength. However, just a couple of months of quarantine, all three of Trump's main trump cards were destroyed. The unemployment rate may increase by various estimates to 15-20%, the labor market, according to the latest report of NonFarm Payrolls, is in a deplorable state, and the economy in 2020 may decline so much that it will be at "pre-Trump" levels. Of course, the US leader can accuse someone else of all the troubles of the USA in his usual manner. For example, China. In principle, the whole world has long understood that Trump is to blame for everything except America. However, will voters believe this, who, after all, are primarily interested in their own well-being and the availability of work in the country? A $1,200 check with Trump's personal signature is, of course, good, but it won't solve all the problems of every household caused by the epidemic.

analytics5e98f23795b14.jpg

The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as a whole continues to decline and is 84 points at the end of the last day. Thus, fears for a new wave of panic in the market are still premature, however, traders continue to behave quite actively. On April 17, we expect the pair's quotes to move between the levels of 1.0764 and 1.0932. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards may indicate a round of upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1,0742

S2 - 1.0620

S3 - 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.0864

R2 - 1,0986

R3 - 1.1108

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair continues to move down. Thus, traders are recommended to trade down with the targets of the volatility level of 1.0764 and the Murray level of "0/8"-1.0742 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair again if the price is fixed back above the moving average, with the targets of 1.0932 and 1.0986.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed won't keep the dollar in check while the virus rages

analytics5e98eced0e1b9.jpg

The fundamental picture of the US economy is appalling. The data are not just a streak of negativity. There have never been such records in US history. Retail sales fell by 8.7%, which was the strongest decline in the history of these data. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey also reached an unprecedented drop to -78.2. The industry collapsed by 5.4%, and the number of new buildings fell by 22.3%. Indicators are worse than forecast estimates.

It's all about the quarantine measures taken to combat the spread of the coronavirus. It is worth noting that they were introduced in mid-March. So these catastrophic indicators are not a complete monthly picture that allows us to understand the scale of damage from the quarantine.

The Beige Book reflected pessimistic moods. Thus, economic activity has sharply declined in recent weeks. Federal Reserve officials are sounding the alarm about a sharp drop in employment in all regions. Highly uncertain forecasts among the representatives of business circles. This is mainly about the deterioration of conditions in the next few months.

A new batch of weekly data on the labor market was released today. Despite the fact that the growth in the number of new applications for unemployment benefits has slowed, the indicator remains alarming. More than 5.2 million American citizens are considered unemployed. Since the beginning of April, 20 million people have applied for benefits in the US.

Nevertheless, the dollar does not get tired of conquering peaks, despite the fact that the Fed floods the markets with liquidity. The only explanation is a general flight to protective assets. Scared investors go into quality, which includes actively buying the US dollar.

The dollar index again broke through the 100-point mark during the US session, which means that the greenback received a new boost to growth.

USDX

analytics5e98ed000c0f2.jpg

The market's attention shifted to Trump's guide to reviving the economy. It is unlikely to be related to reality; rather, it looks like an attempt to calm the markets that might not be as successful. Two days ago, US chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci said that weakening the quarantine in early May is an overly optimistic scenario.

A visual analysis of the incidence rate in the United States and Germany suggests that Trump is really in a hurry: Germany not only passed the plateau, but also, it seems, waited for a steady decline in the number of new cases before talking about quarantine removal. The United States seems to have just reached a plateau.

At this stage, the words or wishes of the US President may not coincide with the specific measures being taken.

The US currency shows a strong positive correlation with risk aversion. "Bouts" of decline in the dollar happened, but their duration is usually short. The greenback will be able to resist until the curve of new cases begins to steadily go down.

The fundamental factor that is currently exerting pressure on the dollar is the country's ultra-soft credit policy. In this regard, the series of strengthening the US currency can be considered as a good opportunity to get into the medium-term short for the dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. The bottom can't, the top won't: traders await important data from China

The euro-dollar pair is stuck in a flat. Although the mood for the pair is clearly bearish, the results of the last two days have made it clear that the bears are not able to gain a foothold below the 1.0850 mark. Sellers have fallen for this price target several times, but failed to stay there – and even more so to indicate new price horizons. However, the situation is even worse for EUR/USD bulls – they can only repel bearish attacks, but they are also unable to regain lost positions. Rather contradictory fundamental background does not allow the parties to attract the majority to their side, so that they can finally determine the vector of movement of EUR/USD. It is likely that tomorrow's data from China will change the situation – because we will learn about the growth of the Chinese economy for the first quarter, as well as the volume of industrial production in the country. These figures should either cheer the market or strengthen anti-risk sentiment.

analytics5e98e8651af31.jpg

Of course, traders are prepared for the fact that the Chinese economy went deep into the negative in the first quarter – after all, China took the first blow of the epidemic. According to preliminary forecasts, the volume of real GDP (from the beginning of the year to the reporting quarter) will reach the level of -4.5% (this indicator came out at 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019). If the real numbers match the forecast (not to mention higher values), the market will again awaken risk appetite. But if China closes the first quarter with more significant losses, dollar bulls will once again remind themselves – including in the EUR/USD pair.

The indicator of industrial production in China will also be published tomorrow. Industrial production fell by 13.5% in February – the worst result in the last 30 years. The March indicator should also come out in a negative area, but still better than the February values. According to preliminary forecasts, the indicator will be at -7.1%. Again, if it is at the forecast level or higher, it will indirectly help the euro to adjust, otherwise investors will get another reason to purchase a key protective asset – the dollar.

It is noteworthy that US macroeconomic statistics affect the greenback's position in a special way. If earlier, in the pre-crisis times, the currency, as a rule, reacted negatively to the decline in indicators of the US economy, now it is the opposite – the worse the situation in the US, the more actively investors invest in the dollar. Overly negative figures suggest that the overall decline in the global economy could be more widespread, and the awareness of this fact provokes an increase in anti-risk sentiment (thereby increasing the demand for the dollar).

Following this logic, the US currency suspended its growth today after the release of relatively good data on the US labor market. However, it is not quite correct to talk about "good" results here – they just turned out to be somewhat better than pessimistic expectations. Let me remind you that the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits has been growing at a tremendous pace for several weeks in a row. This figure jumped to three million on March 26, almost seven million the week before last, and was at the level of 6.6 million last week. This indicator was also expected to exceed the 6-million mark today. But it did not: it came out at 5.2 million. And although this result is not a reason for optimism, dollar bulls still retreated – especially against the background of the White House's intentions to "open the economy" in early May.

However, the bulls of the EUR/USD pair also could not take advantage of the situation, because another macroeconomic indicator - the Philadelphia Fed index of manufacturing activity - fell to a 40-year low (-56.6 points) today. All components of the latest release were in the negative area, and the component of new orders fell by more than 100 points. The number of construction projects launched in the United States also significantly fell in March - the highest over the past 36 years. This indicator is an important leading indicator of the health of the real estate market (and the economy as a whole), so today's result has again alarmed investors.

In turn, the European currency received little support from the ECB: Christine Lagarde announced today that the regulator will consider additional "options and opportunities" to support the economy in the context of the growing crisis. But the euro's reaction was minimal - firstly, no specifics, and secondly, another reminder of the "growing crisis."

analytics5e98e87958212.jpg

Thus, both bulls and EUR/USD bears are waiting for an information impulse that will either help sellers gain a foothold below 1.0850 and go to the bottom of the eighth figure, or will allow buyers to gain a foothold above 1.0910 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator is D1), determining the next growth target at 1.0980 (Kijun-sen line on the same timeframe). While the pair has not overcome the above price targets, there is no need to rush with trading decisions, especially on the eve of important data from China.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com