Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for August 10, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1790 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target at the support level of 1.1692 (black bold line). If this level is reached, the downward movement may continue with the next target of 1.1631 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today the price may move downward with the target at the support level of 1.1692 (black bold line). If this level is reached, the downward movement may continue with the next target of 1.1631 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dashed line).

Another possible scenario is upon reaching the support level 1.1692 (black bold line), the price may move upwards with the target of 1.1823 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dotted line).

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Trump proposes to reduce unemployment benefits

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On Saturday, Donald Trump bypassed lawyers, all the while claiming that he had the right to defer payroll taxes. And after negotiations with the Congress regarding a new stimulus package failed, he proposed cutting unemployment benefits.

Trump's recent orders have infringed the authority of the Congress with regards to its control on federal spending. However, the president called his action necessary, given that the Congress failed to come into an agreement in putting more money to the stumbling economy, which threatens his re-election.

Trump hopes that the four executive orders he signed will send a signal to Americans that he takes action when Congress is inactive.

But Joe Biden, Trump's Democratic opponent, called the orders "a series of unfinished measures", accusing him of jeopardizing social security as it is funded through payroll taxes.

Chairman of the House Committee on Ways and Means, Richard Neal, also accused Trump of "blatantly bypassing Congress to impose tax policies that destabilize social security," also referring to the threat to Medicare funding.

Republican Senator and Senate Judge Ben Sasse said that Trump "has no right to unilaterally rewrite payroll tax laws," as according to the Constitution, this power belongs to the American people, acting through the members of Congress.

Unfortunately, oftentimes, the stalemate in Washington is of little public concern.

Nonetheless, the breakdown of negotiations over the past few days has particularly grieved schools that have tried to reopen.

Meanwhile, Republicans in the Senate are divided, with about half opposed to the bailout bill.

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Hot forecast and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on 08/10/2020

Finally, we have seen a noticeable appreciation of the dollar, and all thanks to the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor. Of course, it is too early to talk about the beginning of a full-fledged correction, but the tension in the market has slightly decreased. Indeed, the market still remains significantly overheated, and the dollar is still oversold.

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The content of the report of the United States Department of Labor itself turned out to be significantly better than even rather optimistic forecasts. Most importantly, the unemployment rate fell from 11.1% to 10.2%. A decrease to 10.5% was expected. This became possible due to the fact that outside agriculture, 1,763,000 new jobs were created, instead of the projected 1,620,000. And even if this is still an incredibly high level of unemployment. The fact of its steady decline is in itself an extremely positive factor. And it is clear that investors only looked at these two indicators, but other parameters turned out to be quite nothing. In particular, the growth rate of average hourly wages slowed down from 4.9% to 4.8%, which is also quite good. After all, they expected a slowdown in growth rates to 4.5%. And in general, there were fears that the growth rate of the average hourly wage would drop to 4.2%. That is, it was expected that the labor market would recover amid a significant decrease in wages. But, apparently, so far this has been avoided. In addition, the average working week has been reduced from 34.6 hours, not to 34.4 hours, but to 34.5 hours. And the only indicator that was somehow disappointing was the level of economic activity, which should have remained unchanged, but it dropped from 61.5% to 61.4%. The reduction is not important, and the indicator itself is probably the most insignificant among all other indicators of the labor market.

Unemployment rate (United States):

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The only thing that is of any interest today is open vacancies in the United States, the number of which should be reduced from 5,397,000 to 4,900,000. indicating that the rate of decline in unemployment will only slow down. Thus, exacerbating the already difficult situation in the economy. However, after Friday's report from the Ministry of Labor, this will be seen as a consequence of a more dynamic reduction in the unemployment rate. So from the point of view of investors, such a decrease in the number of open vacancies is just another confirmation of the recovery of the US labor market. Which, without any doubt, will help strengthen the dollar.

JOLTS Open Jobs (United States):

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The euro/dollar pair managed to form a downward move last Friday, where the 1.1900 area played a role of resistance in the market. The outlines of the correction course were obtained, but the scale of the price change is extremely small when taking into account such a high value of the European currency. If we proceed from the dynamics of the period earlier, there is a chance for a further decline in the value of the euro. Relative to market volatility, there is a high dynamic that exceeds the average, which indicates speculative interest in the market.

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (the daily period), you can see that the current movement is a price fluctuation at the peak of the inertia course.

We can assume that if the price rebounds from the value of 1.1800 and consolidates lower than 1.1780, we will open a path in the direction of 1.1755-1.1720. An alternative scenario considers the absence of further adjustment to the euro's value, where consolidating the price higher than 1.1820 may lead to a reverse course.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments at minute and hour intervals signal a sale due to Friday's rally. The daily indicator still signals a purchase against the background of the main inertia.

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Dollar's growth is just a correction and nothing more (resumption of growth in the EUR/USD and AUD/USD pairs is expected)

The markets have been eagerly waiting for the release of important data on US employment over the past week, which could show how deeply the US economy is getting stuck in the coronavirus pandemic and whether it will be able to recover strongly in the near future.

According to the data presented, the US economy received 1,763,000 new jobs in July, which was significantly worse than the June figures. After that, there was a sharp rebound in the growth of new jobs, which, although it was revised downward to 4,791,000 from 4,800,000, still remained noticeably high. At the same time, the released values exceeded the consensus forecast of 1,600,000. In addition, investors were pleased with the unemployment rate, which dropped more than expected by 10.5% to 10.2% from 11.1%.

On Friday, there were also other equally important values for the average hourly wages, which increased by 0.2% in July against the forecast of a decline by 0.5%. In annual terms, the average wage last month fell slightly compared to July 2019, showing a decline to 4.8% from 4.9%, while a decline to 4.1% was expected. The average length of the week in July also slightly decreased to 34.5 from 34.6, already revised downward. The indicator was expected to show a drop to 34.4.

The only noticeable negative was the data on the number of jobs in the manufacturing industry. The drop was significant to 26,000 from 357,000. The number of jobs was expected to decline, but not so much to 253,000.

As a result, global markets reacted ambiguously to the US statistics. The local stock market went into a negative zone after trying to grow up at the opening and the dollar in the currency market began to receive support against all major currencies, without exception. Its rise was supported by the growth of the yield on US Treasury bonds. Thus, the yield on the benchmark of 10-year Treasuries increased by the end of Friday to 0.566%, adding 0.66%.

The ICE dollar index rose 0.67% to 93.39 points. The dynamics of the dollar immediately forced the traders to think about whether it would turn out that further positive in the data of American economic statistics will lead to the fact that the Fed will not keep the current extremely soft monetary rate for a long time without changes.

In our view, this is groundless. The Fed itself, in the person of its leader, J. Powell has repeatedly stated that she will pursue a soft monetary policy for as long as it takes to restore the economy, as well as increase inflation to the 2.0% level, and more importantly. Powell said that the Central Bank will actually target the rate of inflation, and this is something new that has not been in recent years.

We view the current strengthening of the dollar as an overdue correction after its three-month decline against the basket of major currencies, which may transform into consolidation before a new stage in the weakening of the US dollar. We believe that the incoming positive news on the US economy will have a negative impact on it.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating, probably forming a trend continuation pattern. The prospective breakdown of the level 1.1900 may become the basis for the price rise to the level of 1.2000.

The AUD/USD pair is turning upwards. Now, breaking through the level of 0.7180 will get an opportunity to rise to the level of 0.7260.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on August 10? Plan for opening and closing

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

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The EUR/USD currency pair started a weak upward correction on Monday night trading. The MACD indicator turned up, however, the price also began to rise, so we managed to avoid "indicator discharge" (the indicator property, in which the price and the indicator move in opposite directions, happens when the price moves in one direction for a strong and long time). So, from a technical point of view, everything is beautiful. Now, traders should wait for the completion of this correction and it will be possible to resume trading on the downside at least until the level of 1.1696, which is the previous local minimum, is worked out. And only if this level is overcome, then it will be possible to assume the formation of a new downward trend. Until then, the pair's quotes may return to the level of 1.1903 at any moment.

On Monday, August 10, the European Union and America are not scheduled for any important macroeconomic publications. Thus, most likely, nothing will affect the tone of trading today. If this is the case, then traders can easily adjust the pair to certain levels and after a smooth turn down, resume the downward movement. We believe that this is the most likely option for today. Of course, the market can receive unplanned news. For example, an important and high-profile speech by Donald Trump, news about negotiations between Republicans and Democrats regarding the provision of a new package of financial assistance to the US economy, or data on "coronavirus" diseases in the US. Each of these topics can potentially change the mood of traders, which can lead to an increase in the movement or a reversal of the price. We remind you that the market is very sensitive to the topic of the COVID-2019 epidemic in the United States, and it does so with good reason. Since the epidemic slows down the recovery of the American economy after the "lockdown". And the American economy has already suffered almost the most in the world, losing 33% of GDP in the second quarter. And now we don't know what the data for the third quarter will be. As we have already said, the pandemic in America is "uncontrolled in its spread". Thus, many factors suggest that it is time for the dollar to become more expensive. But at the same time, almost at any moment, traders can refuse this option due to the weak fundamental background from America, and then the dollar will start to fall again.

On August 10, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Purchases of the pair are still not relevant, since the price left the ascending channel and could not overcome the level of 1.1903. There are no technical structures, such as trend lines or channels or other models that support the upward trend at the moment. Thus, we believe that it is not appropriate to trade for an increase at this time.

2) Sales of the currency pair are still more promising now. At the moment, the pair is being corrected, as indicated by the MACD indicator (the signal for correction is circled in red). Therefore, we now suggest waiting for the completion of this correction and a signal from the same MACD to sales. Then we recommend that you re-open sell orders with targets of 1.1732 and 1.1696. In principle, given the current average volatility of the pair (an indicator of the average number of points from the minimum to the maximum of the day), traders can reach the first goal today. However, the stronger the upward correction, the less time and effort will be left to work out the level of 1.1732 on August 10.

What's on the chart:

Price levels of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Crude Oil Price Movement On August 10, 2020

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After WTI Crude Oil touched the $41.26 level, the price is now trying to climb up above the 50% Fibo level between $42.00 - 42.50 before it is going down again. This asset is actually moving with a downward bias which has been already confirmed by the move in a downward slope Pitchfork on the 4-hour Chart. Now before WTI continues its downward movement, #CL is expected to make a retracement upwards first as long as the price does not break out and closes above the 42.85 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Trump bans TikTok and WeChat. Meanwhile, oil is to collapse soon.

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US President Donald Trump recently signed a couple of bans to Chinese tech companies such as TikTok and WeChat, the reason for which is that these companies pose threat to privacy.

Trump's actions against China affected both the stock market and commodities, causing a drop even with oil and gold, and consequently, a rise in the dollar.

Nonetheless, even though the results of crude oil inventories showed the largest annual decline, the weekly gains closed with bearish sentiment.

This is because according to the OPEC + agreement, some of the supplies will return to the market in August, except for Iraq, who has pledged to significantly cut supplies.

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Thus, oil is to collapse soon, and if any place in North America was to be prepared for such a crash, it is oil-rich Alberta, Saudi Arabia and Canada.

Back in 1976, the Alberta government set up funds to save some of its oil and gas revenues, in the event of a price collapse or an exhaust in resources. For decades, revenues have flowed into Alberta's coffers, and they have increased during the boom in the early 2000s, when the province developed its vast reserves of oil sands.

However, the successive governments did not stick to it, so today, as low oil prices have turned economies around the world, Alberta, sadly, is also in a decline. One economist estimates that if more had been postponed during the oil boom, Alberta could have had a $ 575 billion ($ 433 billion) wealth fund to keep from being hurt during the pandemic.

Instead, the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund shrank to $ 16.3 billion.

"Many people in Alberta may not even realize that the Heritage Foundation still exists," said Trevor Tombe, an Economics professor at the University of Calgary. "The fact is that if we were to save on deductions, we could already have a fund of hundreds of billions," he added.

In any case, Tombe hopes that the lessons of the current pandemic crisis will bring their own corrections.

"The scale of the economic turmoil and financial turmoil is so great that I think it will really make people think we should be doing something differently," he noted. "And if such an event does not force us to change what we do, I do not know what will change."

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 08/10/20

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The EUR/USD currency pair resumed movement within trend lines 1, 2 and 3 after resistance was found within the price area 1.1900/1.1920. Based on the resistance point, Friday was built on a downward wave, during which market participants managed not only to rebound from the 1.1900/1.1920 area, but to form a full-fledged move towards trend line No. 3 (1.1755), where a pivot was found.

Following the path of the trend lines allows the trader to prepare in advance for a rebound and reversal in the market, as happened with line # 3, where the pivot point was found.

Considering the current situation in the market with respect to trend lines, we can see that after the price from line # 3 (area 1.1755) can bring the quote within the value 1.1830, where trend line # 2 is located, the main work begins here. The ascending channel (1 + 2 + 3) has existed on the market for a long time, and its further structure cannot be ruled out. A price consolidation above trend line 2 (area 1.1830/1.1840) may lead to a move towards line number 1, where there is also resistance, expressed in the price area 1.1900/1.1920.

An alternative scenario is considering a channel reversal from ascending to descending. In this outcome, trend line 3 (area 1.1740/1.750) plays the main role, since traders will receive a sell signal in case of its breakout.

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The GBP/USD currency pair changed the structure of the ascending channel of trend lines 1, 2 and 3 for the first time in a long time, where the quote managed to overcome line No. 3 (area 1.3100) last Friday. This market move led to the formation of a new channel and new trend lines.

The side channel in the structure of trend lines 4, 5 and 6 has a number of confirmations on the history of the trading chart, which allows traders to see the price interaction points in advance.

Based on the path of the current move, from trend line 6 (area 1.3000) to the side of line 5 (area 1.3080/1.3090), a number of scenarios can be assumed that can be referred to in trading.

The first scenario proceeds from the price movement along the path 6 ---> 4 (trend lines), where line 5 will not become an obstacle and the quote will be able to consolidate above the value of 1.3100, which will enable traders to enter buy positions.

The second scenario is based on Friday's downward trend, on the basis of which the market changed direction. In this case, a price rebound from trend line #5 can return the quote within the pivot point 1.3000.

In such scenario, the best entry point is below 1.3035, towards 1.3000.

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Knight's move: Trump's questionable decrees bypassing Congress put pressure on the dollar

The dollar index was flat during the Asian session on Monday, showing a pessimistic mood. Friday's optimism faded, and the weekend's events failed to inspire dollar bulls to conquer new heights. Moreover, the current situation in the United States "smacks" of a political crisis that can turn against the dollar. The coronavirus is also putting background pressure on the greenback, as the US has passed the five million milestone in the number of cases. In other words, the US currency showed its vulnerability again when trading began. Therefore, assessing the dollar's growth from last Friday, we can assume that it was just a large-scale correction – to break the trend, dollar bulls lack political stability and positive news from the "medical front". On some Nonfarm data, figuratively speaking, "you won't get far".

So, the main news of the weekend is that US President Donald Trump bypassed Congress and signed four executive orders to provide assistance to victims of the pandemic. At first glance, this is good news for dollar bulls, who have been waiting for several weeks for the passage of an agreed-upon one-trillion-dollar bill. But in fact, Trump only worsened a rather difficult situation by making questionable decisions in the legal sense.

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As mentioned above, Trump issued four decrees. First, it has partially reimbursed additional unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus pandemic. These payments, which will reach $400 a week (up from $600 previously), will be 75% funded by the federal government and 25% by the states. They will be produced until December 6 of this year. The federal government will channel funds from the Emergency Relief Fund for these needs - a total of about $44 billion.

The rest of Trump's decrees provide for a deferral of payroll tax payments for people earning less than $100,000 a year, an extension of the moratorium on student loans, and measures to help tenants and homeowners.

According to Bloomberg, these decrees are "very, very controversial from a legal point of view," as in accordance with the US Constitution, only Congress decides on government spending. A similar position has already been voiced by representatives of the Democratic Party. According to them, Trump has exceeded his powers, therefore, the decrees he signed can be challenged in court.

Trump, by and large, does not deny the controversy of his actions. Commenting on the situation, he said that he "was forced to take such measures" because negotiations in Congress reached an impasse, Republicans and Democrats did not agree on the amount of this assistance, and additional payments to unemployed Americans were stopped on July 31. Therefore, he "was forced" to take such steps, figuratively speaking, "saving America."

Naturally, such decisions of the incumbent president should be viewed through the prism of the November elections. Trump loses to his main competitor in many ways 100 days before the "X-hour". Joe Biden has already said that the head of the White House has taken "a number of half-baked measures." According to him, these actions are "another cynical trick" of the president, who wants to divert attention from his responsibility for the failure of politics in the crisis. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Democrat spokesman) also made it clear that the Trump administration simply failed to come to terms with the Democratic Party. She said the Democrats have proposed a compromise, agreeing to reduce the size of the planned aid package from 3 trillion to 2 trillion. However, the White House, which pushed for $1 trillion in aid, turned down the offer.

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As a result, the decrees signed by Trump failed to support the dollar. First, with a high degree of probability, they will be appealed in court. Secondly, even if they remain in force, they can be considered as a kind of "patch" - according to some experts, even one trillion dollars, which was discussed in Congress, could not fully help the American economy in the context of overcoming the coronavirus crisis. Now that Trump has resorted to populist half-measures, negotiations between congressmen are likely to stall completely - and this fact will put additional pressure on the dollar.

In the meantime, the situation with the coronavirus in the United States continues to be difficult. Last week, Trump made a loud statement that "the virus is receding", but the daily incidence continues to be high. For example, 47,000 new patients were identified yesterday, and 56,000 infected the day before yesterday. The total number of people who have become infected with COVID-19 in the United States has already exceeded five million people since the beginning of the pandemic - this is the largest figure in the world.

Thus, the dollar starts the trading week in difficult conditions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar for EUR/USD is practically empty, so traders will react to the near-market news flow, including regarding the prospects for the implementation of the Trump decrees.

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD bulls need to overcome the 1.1805 mark (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart) - long positions to the borders of the 19th figure can be considered only in this case. Until this moment, you are advised to take a wait-and-see attitude, since judging by the uncertain dynamics of the dollar index, the market has not yet decided on the vector of its movement, while Trump unexpectedly "mixed all the cards" by redrawing the fundamental picture for dollar pairs.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for August 10, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen moving lower in the recent pull-back. The bears has hit the level of 1.3008 and then the bulls has pushed the rate back towards the level of 1.3067. This is where the Pound starts the early Monday trading and overall is still consolidating the gains despite the recent local pull-backs. The key technical support is seen at the level of 1.2979, so as long as the market trades above it, the odds for another wave up are high.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3353

WR2 - 1.3261

WR1 - 1.3146

Weekly Pivot - 1.3060

WS1 - 1.2937

WS2 - 1.2860

WS3 - 1.2735

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for August 10, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has moved lower during the corrective cycle and hit the level of 1.1755, which is the main channel lower line. Any violation of this level will only deepen the correction towards the next key technical support seen at the level of 1.1655. The momentum is below the fifty level already and the market is coming off the overbought conditions as well, so odds for another wave down are quite high. The nearest technical resistance is seen between the levels of 1.1790 - 1.1813.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2109

WR2 - 1.2010

WR1 - 1.1819

Weekly Pivot - 1.1788

WS1 - 1.1633

WS2 - 1.1672

WS3 - 1.1572

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend, so all pull-backs and corrections should be used to accumulate the EUR. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.2000 - 1.2089. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for August 10, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

A project led by partner company Bitbeat CIC Enterprise aims to provide crypto payment solutions on two of Korea's busiest beaches for tourists to use.

According to ZDNet Korea, the company worked with card and cash payment provider Innotech to provide a token-based payment solution with the Haeundae Beach System on Busan, South Korea's famous tourist beaches.

The program will allow you to pay for classes related to water sports, life jackets, and even the rental of umbrellas, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as MCI and WAY ERC20 tokens via smartphone applications.

Bitbeat said such payments can be processed in less than 10 seconds, relying on the use of QR codes for any wallet in the world, which differs from similar projects that often require customers to download separate applications to complete the entire process.

The company adds:

"We hope the virtual currency used in the Haeundae-gu Beach System will be more widely used in real life. We will try to provide a cryptocurrency payment environment."

Busan authorities expect that on summer days, people will prefer to rent services on the beaches of Haeundae, rather than bring their own everyday items for fun and recreation to enjoy their time at the beaches. Another beach in Songjeong also runs a similar paid cryptocurrency pilot.

Also in Busan, a private-public consortium in South Korea announced on June 20 its intention to build a blockchain-based medical tourism platform. The release date has not yet been determined and, according to Gyeongnam Ilbo, the initiative will be Busan Bank.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced from the level of $362.30, which is just below the short-term trend line support and is moving up towards the yearly high located at the level of $414,11. The momentum has increased and is back in positive territory, so the bulls are still in charge of the market, but the price is still trading inside of the range seen between the levels of $355.34 - $407.03. In a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $450. The key short-term support is still located at the level of $323.87- $323.85.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $458.63

WR2 - $430.13

WR1 - $411.58

Weekly Pivot - $386.08

WS1 - $366.85

WS2 - $340.34

WS3 - $321.13

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the violation of the level of $351, Ethereum is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of $500. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $86.10, but the zone around $300 - $308 is an important technical support as well.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for August 10, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Researchers at the Technical University of Munich urge regulators to look beyond Bitcoin when it comes to considering the environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining.

According to an August 4 issue of the scientific journal Joule, researchers Ulrich Gallersdorfer, Lena Klaasen and Christian Stoll found that Bitcoin mining accounted for only 66% of the total energy consumption of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.

"Based on the underlying algorithms, up-to-date hash ratios, and the right mining equipment, we conclude that Bitcoin accounts for 2/3 of total energy consumption and that unexplored cryptocurrencies account for the remaining 1/3. Thus, undervalued currencies add almost 50% to satisfy Bitcoin, which alone can cause significant damage to the environment "- reads the report.

The study determined the energy consumption of altcoins by analyzing their mixing rates and mining equipment. The blockchains include Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Litecoin, Monero, Dash, Ethereum Classic, Zcash, Dogecoin, Bitcoin Gold, Decred, RavenCoin, MonaCoin), SiaCoin, DigiByte, Horizen, Komodo and Bytecoin.

The research team stressed that while the energy requirements of cryptocurrency mining are a cause for concern for environmentalists, much research has focused solely on Bitcoin, not all cryptocurrencies.

"Energy consumption in itself is not a problem in the context of climate change," reads the report. However, it has been found that mining of cryptocurrencies causes an unexpected burden that requires additional resources. "Increasing the number of hours to fully load some production resources can lead to fuel switching effects and local emission intensity changes," thus worsening the environmental impact.

Bitcoin pioneer Hal Finney noted back in 2009 that mining could cause an environmental nightmare due to energy demand, and this was before the creation of altcoins.

Most of the energy needed to mine Bitcoin already comes from renewable energy sources. According to a report by the research company CoinShares in December 2019, approximately 73% of BTC mining is powered by renewable energy.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced from the level of $11,470, which is just below the short-term trend line support and is moving up towards the yearly high located at the level of $12,035. The momentum has increased and is back in positive territory, so the bulls are still in charge of the market. In a case of a breakout higher, the next target for bulls is seen at the level of $12,269. The key short-term support is still located at the level of $10,940 - $10,890.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,981

WR2 - $12,405

WR1 - $12,075

Weekly Pivot - $11,487

WS1 - $11,099

WS2 - $10,537

WS3 - $10,124

Trading Recommendations:

Due to the level of $12,000 violation, the Bitcoin is now in the up trend on the long-term time frame. The next key target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712 and $15,000. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897, but the zone around $9,500 - $10,500 is an important technical support as well.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 10, 2020

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We expected GBP/JPY to spike higher to 140.35 to complete blue wave iii and set the stage for a minor correction in blue wave iv. However, the sideways consolidation that started on July 31 has continued to dominate the picture here. GBP/JPY is likely to break out of the 137.72 - 139.12 range towards the upside for the long-expected spike higher. It will test the 140.35 level. Once this level has been tested, we may see a decrease of blue wave iv to the 137.72 - 137.98 area before the next impulsive rally higher through the peak at 140.35 to 144.29.

R3: 140.35

R2: 139.80

R1: 139.20

Pivot: 138.75

S1: 138.34

S2: 137.98

S3: 137.72

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 135.48 and upon a break above 139.12 we will raise our stop to 137.70. We will take profit on 50% of our long position at 140.25.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 10, 2020

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EUR/JPY is currently building a wave iv correction. It is likely to decline to 123.78 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 127.25 and ideally closer to 129.26 is seen. Short-term support is located near 124.21 and at 123.78 which may protect the downside for the next impulsive rally higher.

R3: 125.82

R2: 125.59

R1: 125.43

Pivot: 125.01

S1: 124.63

S2: 124.21

S3: 123.78

Trading recommendation:

We will but EUR at 123.85 or upon a break above 125.41

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 10, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro began to fully reach a reversal last Friday, which is long overdue - the euro lost 87 points and it was based on good data on employment in the US. In the non-agricultural sector, 1.763 million jobs were created against the forecast of 1.6 million, overall unemployment dropped to 10.2% from 11.1% (forecast 10.5%).

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The price divergence with the Marlin oscillator reverses in full force on the daily chart. The price has already overcome the closest support at 1.1806. Now we are waiting for the price at the nearest level of 1.1620, then in the target range of 1.1420/90.

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The price consolidated above the 1.1806 level on the four-hour chart. The price also consolidated below the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has entered the declining trend zone. We are waiting for a bearish trend to develop in the medium term.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 10, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling, supported by the US dollar's appreciation, continued to work with reversal technical patterns last Friday. These are price divergences with the Marlin oscillator on the daily and four-hour charts.

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The pound fell 90 points on Friday, marking the 61.8% Fibonacci level with the lower shadow. Now we are waiting for the price to overcome the Friday low and decline further towards the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.2912. In the future, we are waiting for a movement to the Fibonacci level of 100.0%, towards the MACD line (1.2727).

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The price has already consolidated below the balance (red indicator) and MACD (blue) lines on the four-hour chart. Marlin is in the negative trend zone. The trend is completely downward on this chart, you should wait for the price to break through the Friday low, which will be a signal to move to the first target of 1.2912.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on August 10, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell by 77 points last Friday, against the backdrop of the US dollar's appreciation across the entire spectrum of markets. Copper fell 4.12%, oil 0.93%, wheat 0.97%, meat futures an average of 0.50%.

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In an isolated examination of the technical picture, we can note a market reversal after a four-fold price divergence formed with the Marlin oscillator. This pattern is rare in the market, therefore, it provides a groundwork for a long decline. We believe that with a high degree of probability, the aussie will correct to the target level of 0.6370, that is, to half of the previous growth from the March 19 low.

At the moment, the nearest target is the 0.7070 level (high on June 10). A little lower, the price will meet the support of the MACD blue indicator line, where it could slightly slow down. With its overcoming, the price opens wide doors to the goals of 0.6975, 0.6745, and so on.

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The price has consolidated below both indicator lines on the four-hour chart - the balance line and the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator is in the negative zone. We are waiting for a further price decline to the 0.7070 level.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on August 10, 2020

USD/JPY

USD/JPY was optimistic about US employment data and gained 38 points last Friday. The reversal occurred from the support of the embedded price channel line on the daily chart, which the price pierced with lower shadows in the previous two days. As we said earlier, the main trend for the pair is ascending from July 31. We are waiting for the price in the 106.60/80 range, formed on the daily scale by the MACD line and the upper line of the price channel.

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But the upward trend is still not fixed from a technical standpoint; the Marlin oscillator did not leave the zone of negative values, the price is not above the MACD indicator trend line, therefore, if the price consolidates under the support of 105.50, a further decline to the local and temporary line of the price channel at 104.45 is likely.

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The price is higher than the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart, but Marlin is stuck at the border separating the growth trend zone from the decline trend zone. The signal for growth is the price breaking the Friday high of 106.06.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on August 10. COT report. Buyers retreat, failing to take the 1.3169

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair moved almost identical to the European currency on August 7. This is easily explained by the fundamental background that was the same for both pairs. Thus, by the end of the trading day, the pound/dollar pair fell below the critical Kijun-sen line, which gives some hope for a further drop in quotes. It should also be noted that earlier the pair was pinned below the upward trend line, and later failed twice to overcome the resistance level of 1.3169. Thus, the bears get a good chance of moving down. However, the pair has not yet been able to even reach the previous local low. Thus, the bears' positions look very shaky right now.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, indicating a downward trend in the short term. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which was released on Friday, finally matched what is happening now in the market. Recall that two COT reports previously showed a decline in the net position of non-commercial traders, which, in fact, means that the bullish mood is weakening. That is, the most important category of "non-commercial" traders reduced (roughly speaking) purchases of the pound over the previous two weeks and at the same time, the British currency started to appreciate. However, the latest COT report finally showed that non-commercial traders increased the number of Buy-contracts by almost 5,000. At the same time, they also closed Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 3,500. Thus, the total net position for this category increased by 8,500. Consider the illustration below.

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If the graphical representation of the COT report looked absolutely clear for the euro, then it is more difficult for the pound. In recent weeks, the difference between the net positions of non-commercial(green line) and commercial (red line) traders has been narrowing. This does not mean that the pair should stand in one place in the flat, but such indicator readings do not allow us to assume a change in the trend in the near future. However, this may still happen, since this is the scenario that is brewing for the euro/dollar pair, and the pound has even more reason to fall than the euro.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair slightly changed on Friday. The US economy has begun to recover, as signaled by reports on unemployment and new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. The UK did not provide any news or reports, so the fundamental background was the same as for the euro/dollar pair. Not surprisingly, both pairs traded identically on the last trading day of the week. Traders will not receive any important information on Monday, at least not planned. But a large amount of important macroeconomic information will be published in Britain on Tuesday and Wednesday, which can change the mood of traders. The unemployment rate and changes in average wages will be released on Tuesday, and GDP for the second quarter and industrial production will be published on Wednesday. Thus, the mood of market participants for this week will depend on these reports. And of course, do not forget about the coronavirus epidemic in the United States. If data on the increase in the number of diseases begins to arrive again, the US dollar may very quickly fall under a new wave of sales.

There are two main options for the development of events as of August 10:

1) Buyers continue to dominate the market. However, they did not manage to gain a foothold above the previous local high of 1.3169. Thus, we recommend opening new purchases of the British currency, but not before the 1.3169 level has been overcome with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3240 and 1.3400 (to be specified today). Potential Take Profit in this case is from 40 to 200 points.

2) Bears have a new chance to start a downward trend, as prices have consolidated below the Kijun-sen line. Thus, it is now recommended to trade down while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.2919) and the support level of 1.2850. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 110 to 170 points. However, you should be careful with sales. There are many factors working in favor of a brewing fall, but the bears are still very weak.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on August 10. COT report. Major players continue to buy euros, but

EUR/USD 1H

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The euro/dollar pair continued its downward movement and finally broke the critical Kijun-sen line on the hourly timeframe of August 7. Thus, given the fact that the bulls have not managed to overcome the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910, the sellers' positions are beginning to improve, but at the same time they are waiting for at least two significant resistance lines in the form of the Senkou Span B line and the support area of 1.1702-1.1727. If sellers manage to overcome these barriers, we can finally count on a new downward trend to form. Until then, the bulls can be active and enter the game at almost any moment. Given that the "four types of crises" continue to rage in America.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, which perfectly reflects what is happening on higher timeframes. The latest COT report, released on Friday, showed that the mood of professional traders did not change at all during the last reporting week (we remind you that the report is published with a three-day delay) on July 29-August 4. During this time period, the "non-commercial" category of traders re-opened a large number of Buy-contracts, namely 19,354. At the same time, non-commercial traders closed Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 3,561. Thus, the net position for the most important category of traders has grown by 23,000 at once, which is a very large and eloquent indication of the current mood of the major players. The most important thing is that the report data exactly matches what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the euro as a whole continued to grow until August 4. In addition, the single currency managed without any losses in the next three trading days of the week. Therefore, so far, everything is going to the point that the next COT report will show that non-commercial traders are increasing purchases. However, we also suggest that you read the illustration below.

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The lower indicator shows how the net positions of non-commercial traders are growing. The upper indicator shows the discrepancy between the net positions of non-commercial traders (green line) and commercial (red line) (the two main groups of major players). Such a strong divergence usually occurs before trend reversals. Therefore, we still believe that the trend could change to a long-term downward trend in the near future.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair on Friday finally began to change in favor of the US dollar. In fact, the entire background was reduced to three macroeconomic reports, one of which was absolutely not important at this time. But the other two, the unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls, can be said to have provided significant support to the dollar. First, this day's volatility was higher than usual. Secondly, the dollar has not often become more expensive in recent months. We can't say that both reports significantly exceeded their forecasts, but the figures were very optimistic for the currently troubled American economy. The main thing is that the labor market has started to recover, and unemployment has started to decline. Unfortunately, since all reports display data from a month ago, the following reports may be worse than the current ones, since the coronavirus has been openly raging in the United States in the past month, and although US authorities have not been able to introduce a new lockdown, the epidemic cannot but negatively affect the growth of macroeconomic indicators. We expect that the US economic recovery may slow down at the end of August. This may prevent the dollar from continuing to win back previously lost positions against the euro. There will be no significant publications in the EU and US on Monday. Thus, trading can be calm and without sudden movements.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 10:

1) Buyers did not overcome the resistance level of 1.1911. Therefore, they temporarily retreated from the market. Now, to make new purchases, you need to wait for the price consolidation above this level (or the resistance area of 1.1884-1.1910). Then we will recommend buying the pair with the target at the resistance level of 1.2043. In this case, the potential Take Profit is about 100 points.

2) Bears are still struggling to use their chances. The fact that they still managed to overcome the Kijun-sen line (1.1806) is good. However, for now they can only count on a downward movement to the Senkou Span B line (1.1724). Thus, we recommend considering new sales of the euro after overcoming the support area of 1.1702-1.1727 with targets at 1.1644 and 1.1509. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 40 to 160 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 10. The pound is preparing for the publication of the UK GDP. Trump is closing the gap

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -93.7423

The British pound also started falling on Friday, in sync with the European currency. Thus, in principle, we can say that the US dollar has started to become more expensive across the entire spectrum of the market. We have already discussed the reasons in the article on EUR/USD, and in general, more than once recently. The most significant of them is the overall oversold dollar and the technical need to pass 400-500 points against the main trend within the correction. We have also repeatedly said that if we take into account purely economic factors, the situation in the UK is not much better than in the same United States. Yes, the US economy as a result of the "coronavirus" has shrunk by half as much as the British one. However, the British economy will also lose at least 20% in the second quarter. For comparison, even the most affected in the European Union, Italy and Spain lost less than 20%. Thus, if the growth of the European currency in recent days is even more or less justified ("4 American crises" is the reason for this), then this is why the British pound strengthened so much with all the problems with Brexit, negotiations on trade deals with the EU and the US, and the contraction of the British economy in the last 4 years (at first it was just a slowdown), it is unclear. However, market participants thought otherwise and, despite the fact that in the last two weeks professional traders (according to COT reports) absolutely did not like the British pound, nevertheless, this currency continued to grow in price on the foreign exchange market.

In the UK, there were no significant statistics published last week, no new data on negotiations with the European Union on the deal, and no worthwhile information at all. So, by and large, traders are now focused on the second-quarter GDP report we announced, which will be published on Wednesday, August 12. Most likely, this report will create additional pressure on the British currency, which has long since started its march to the south again. Unfortunately, at this time, much will depend not on Britain or the pound, but on the United States and the dollar. The number 1 problem in America remains the same – it is "coronavirus". It cannot be defeated, nor can it be stopped from spreading. Although such a statement would be appropriate if the US authorities were diligently fighting the epidemic, and not just making millions of tests for "coronavirus", which the country's chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci has already called almost useless in terms of preventing new infections. Fauci also believes that without a good vaccine, the virus will continue to spread, since it is impossible to make sure that all 100% of people on the globe strictly adhere to the rules of social distance and wearing masks. This means that quickly or slowly, the virus will continue to live among people and at any convenient moment will try to provoke new outbreaks in certain countries. Thus, it is America and the US dollar that remain in the "red risk zone". If in the UK so far everything is more or less calm with "coronavirus" (as in Europe), then in America... Donald Trump in such a difficult situation continues to blame China, which, in principle, is quite reasonable, but what is the point now? European leaders probably understand this, but the US President does not. "We created the greatest economy in world history, and then China released this plague. Whether through incompetence or other reasons, they got away. It didn't break into China, but it leaked into the US, into Europe, into just 188 countries. We will not forget this," Trump said in Ohio last week.

In addition, the American President did not forget to once again accuse the Democrats that they are trying to rig the election with all their might, this is their only chance to win, and in general they are funded by China, which "sleeps and sees" that Trump is not the President. I wonder when Trump makes such statements, does he think that China treats him unfairly? The US President also blamed (also once again) house speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate democratic leader Chuck Schumer. "They only want to get money to save cities and states that they can not manage with dignity and effectively (meaning management under the leadership of Democrats). This has nothing to do with the Chinese virus! They want a trillion dollars. Without interest. We will go the other way!", said Trump. The most interesting thing is that the Democrats are trying to find a compromise with the Republicans and even offer to lower their demands from 3.4 billion dollars to 2.4, if the Republicans in turn increase their offer by one trillion. According to Democrats, this will allow us to get out of the current impasse more quickly with a new package of support for the American economy.

Well, the last thing that should be stated is that according to the latest opinion polls, the ratings of Donald Trump have started to gradually grow, and Joe Biden – to decline. However, so far we are only talking about 2-3%. According to the latest social studies, Biden still continues to lead, just by a slightly smaller margin. At this time, about 49% of Americans are ready to vote for a Democrat and 43% – for a Republican. The most interesting thing is that Joe Biden continues to remain almost in the shadows. No, he is also campaigning, but there is far less discouraging information coming from him than from Trump.

On Monday, no macroeconomic reports are expected from either the UK or the United States. Thus, traders can try to build on Friday's success and continue selling the pound/dollar pair, which would be very logical from our point of view. However, we believe that the position of the US currency is now very shaky. That is, at any moment, especially if a disappointing news stream continues to pour out of America, the bulls can re-activate and start new purchases of the pound and sales of the dollar. The technical picture is identical to the EUR/USD pair. The pair has settled below the moving average, however, it is not yet possible to say that this consolidation will definitely lead to the formation of a downward trend. Although, of course, we believe that most of the factors are still on the side of the US dollar, since all the American negative has already been won back several times by traders.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 112 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Monday, August 10, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2934 and 1.3158. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will indicate a possible resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3000

S2 – 1.2939

S3 – 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3123

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a new downward movement on the 4-hour timeframe, overcoming the moving average. Thus, today it is recommended to open short positions with the goals of 1.3000 and 1.2939 and stay in them until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. Buy orders are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the price above the moving average with the first targets of 1.3123 and 1.3158.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 10. The US labor market is recovering, and unemployment is falling. Donald Trump promises

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -47.7677

The EUR/USD currency pair has finally started a downward movement, which everyone has been waiting for more than a month. At the end of the last trading week, the pair's quotes still performed a more or less noticeable downward movement and overcame the moving average line, which indicates that the trend has changed to a downward one. However, does this mean the formation of a new downward trend? One way or another, it is quite obvious that traders failed to overcome the level of $ 1.19, from which two rebounds followed. So now the bears have gone on the attack, and we just need to find out how the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds affected this, and whether they did at all.

The first thing to consider is Friday's macroeconomic statistics. If we do not take into account the secondary report on industrial production in Germany, then all the most interesting reports came from overseas. However, of the three conditionally important reports, one was absolutely insignificant, the second – contradictory, and the third clearly expected more. The first report is average wages in the United States, which rose by 0.2% in July. The second is the unemployment rate, which has fallen to 10.2%, which still remains very high (higher than in the European Union and in the UK). The third is NonFarm Payrolls, which grew by 1.763 million at the end of July with a forecast of +1.6 million. Formally, all three reports were better than the forecast values, so the strengthening of the US currency on Friday is absolutely logical and justified. We can also say that the macroeconomic statistics in the United States are improving, which is also a positive factor for the dollar. However, if six months, a year, or two years ago we regularly wrote that the US economy continues to look stronger and more powerful than the European one, then the coronavirus pandemic has made significant adjustments to the balance of power between the United States and the Alliance. It was America that suffered the greatest losses from the epidemic, lockdown, and crisis. And now it is America that is catching up, even though its absolute GDP remains much higher than the European one. Plus, the epidemic in America is not abating, and in 35 states of the country there are certain restrictions designed to slow down the spread of the "Chinese virus" at least a little. Naturally, this also affects the speed of economic recovery, and also creates risks of a possible second "lockdown". Thus, the optimism of buyers of the US dollar is still local. But we have already said that whatever it is now in America, the US dollar has already fallen quite heavily in the last three months and is now heavily oversold, and the euro is overbought. Thus, we believe that 400-500 points of the euro/dollar pair can easily go down now.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump continues to worry only about the problems of his own re-election. The US leader continues to quarrel with everyone he can, while believing that the whole world is against him. This time, Trump managed to fall out with the largest sponsor of the Republican Party, multi-billionaire Sheldon Adelson, accusing him of insufficient funding for his election campaign. Media reports that the US President during a telephone conversation with Adelson said that to win the election, he needs more sponsorship money. It is unknown how Adelson himself reacted to this, but some Republicans now fear that their party's funding will become more scarce. Also, Donald Trump once again "distinguished himself" in exaggerating his importance to the United States. The American leader said that his face should appear on the memorial of the founding fathers of the United States, located on mount Rushmore in South Dakota. We will remind you that the mountain is carved with images of the faces of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln. As we can see, Trump puts himself next to these, of course, outstanding people in American history.

At the same time, Trump continues to cling to any opportunities that are at least theoretically able to increase his political ratings. For example, last week, Trump ordered an extension of the tax holiday for those Americans who receive less than $ 100,000 a year until the end of this year. And he promised to make the tax holidays permanent and to forgive Americans all their tax debts in the event of his re-election as President. It is also reported that Donald Trump ordered that the "coronavirus" allowances for unemployment benefits amounted to $ 400 a week, and the payments of part of this amount will be transferred to the state authorities. Democrats immediately criticized another brilliant plan of Trump, accusing the President of not understanding the gravity of the situation. In principle, the essence of this plan looks very simple – to promise anything to win the election. Trump can now only promise to completely remove all taxes for Americans and hand out money just like that. It is also completely unclear whether Donald Trump has the right to make decisions bypassing Congress on payment issues. Thus, this may just be another unfounded statement by Trump, simply aimed at his own popularization among the electorate before the elections.

However, for the US dollar, this is all irrelevant now. The main thing is that after three absolutely disastrous months, the US currency has finally started to get more expensive. So far, all medium and long-term indicators remain directed upward, but if the price does not return quickly to the area above the moving average this week, they will begin to turn down. On Monday, no important statistics are planned either in the United States or in the European Union, so sellers should not be prevented from continuing to form a new downward trend. At the same time, the pair has not yet gone so far below the moving average to speak about the "strength of the trend". So far, the situation is very shaky and with the slightest pressure from the bulls, the upward trend can resume. Thus, the main thing is that in the coming weeks there will not be a new outbreak of "coronavirus" in the United States, and Donald Trump will not have time to distinguish himself in the international arena with a new conflict.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of August 10 is 105 points and is characterized as "high". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1680 and 1.1890. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a round of upward correction within the now downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3– 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair may have started a new downward trend, breaking the moving average. Thus, at this time, it is recommended to sell the currency pair with the goals of 1.1719 and 1.1680 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns upward. It is now recommended to open buy orders no earlier than the pair is re-anchored above the moving average line with the first targets of 1.1841 and 1.1890.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on August 10? Analysis of Friday. Preparation for

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair still resumed to go down last Friday, August 7. In our morning article, we mentioned that you are not yet advised to consider buying, since three attempts to overcome the 1.1903 level at once were unsuccessful. Sellers also showed no desire to buy the dollar until Thursday and Friday of last week. Nevertheless, the last two trading days of last week still allowed the US dollar to rise by 120 points. Thus, after overcoming the 1.1824 level, novice traders could remain in the sales of the pair (or open new ones) with the targets of 1.1772 and 1.1726, the first of which was eventually successfully reached. Therefore, it was possible to earn about 40-50 points, which is an excellent result for the not very volatile EUR/USD pair. The MACD indicator did not turn upward during Friday, so there was no reason to close sales during the day. The day turned out to be absolutely "bearish" (bears are the players of the foreign exchange market, which sell this or that instrument, while bulls - buy).

Fundamentally, as we said in our morning review of August 7, the Nonfarm Payrolls report was of great importance. As a result, the forecast value of this report has exceeded by around 150-200,000, so traders more actively bought the US dollar during the day. In addition, the unemployment rate in America fell to 10.2%, which also supported the dollar. We can say that, in principle, all the reports on Friday were in favor of the dollar. And we remind novice players that the stronger data from a particular country, the more likely that the national currency of that country will grow. Investors and traders love the currencies of strong economies.

No important news or macroeconomic reports are expected in America or the European Union on August 10, Monday. This means that trading on Monday can be rather sluggish and slightly volatile (this means that during the day the pair can pass a small number of points from the low to the high of the day). The attitude of the sellers is also not clear now. Either they are set for strong sales of the pair, since before that the price had been growing for about three months, therefore, a downward correction by at least 30-50% of the upward movement is necessary. Either the big epidemiological, political and economic problems in the United States will still outweigh and bulls will return to the market. Let's remember that despite the good US data on Friday, the American economy contracted by 33% in the second quarter, while the European one lost only 12.1%.

The following scenarios are possible on August 10:

1) Buying the pair remains irrelevant, since the price was unable to overcome the 1.1903 level. Thus, traders are now simply deprived of buy signals. Based on this, we do not recommend trading the pair up on Monday. An important point: the MACD indicator could move upward at the opening of trading on Monday, but the price may continue to decline. This indicator is now very low and due to its capabilities, it cannot fall constantly. Thus, even an upward reversal of the indicator may not signal the beginning of the pair's growth.

2) Selling the currency pair is still more promising now, at least with the target of 1.1696 (the previous local low). However, there are about 90 points to this goal, so the price will hardly be able to cover such a distance in one day. Especially if it's Monday. In the current situation, it would be best to wait for a slight upward price pullback, after which, upon a downward reversal of the MACD indicator, reopen sales with targets at 1.1726 and 1.1696.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com