Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 31, 2017

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 31, 2017

Burning outlook: US employment report from ADP at 12:15 PM London Time

Burning outlook: US employment report from ADP at 12:15 PM London Time

Forecast of new jobs for August is +185, 000.

The forecast range is + 145, 000 to +245, 000.

Why is it important? Obviously, employment and its dynamics are the most important indicator of the state of the economy, along with the GDP dynamics and inflation.

We are in the phase of growth in the US economy and the world economy. Growth has been occurring for 8 years, since 2009, since the end of the global crisis.

If we see a slowdown in employment growth, it is a signal that growth is slowing down - a signal that is against the US, oil, and dollar markets.

If we see a rise above the forecasts - it is a strong signal in favor of the US market and the dollar.

In 15 minutes after the report on employment, the revised US GDP for the second quarter will be released - the expected growth of the indicator will help the dollar.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for August 30, 2017

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Upside movements are expected to prevail in GBP/JPY. The pair managed to break above its intraday horizontal level at 130.95 yesterday. The previous key resistance now acts as a strong support, which should limit any downside room. In addition, formation of higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a bullish outlook.

To sum up, as long as 141.40 is not broken, look for a new rise to 142.65 and 143.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 141.40 with the target at 140.80.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 141.40, Take Profit: 142.65.

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates the bullish position; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 142.65, 143.00, and 143.50

Support levels: 140.80, 140.40, and 140.00

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 30, 2017

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NZD/USD is expected to continue its downside movements as the pair is under pressure. Although the pair posted a rebound, it is still trading below the key resistance at 0.7280, which should maintain the selling pressure. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.

To sum up, as long as 0.7260 holds on the upside, look for a new test to 0.7190 and even to 0.7150 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates the bullish position. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate the short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7300, and 0.7325

Support levels: 0.7190, 0.7150, and 0.7100

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 30, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310 - 0.7380).

However, the recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7230 (Key Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand zone), which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key Zone) where the recent weak bullish recovery was witnessed on August 16.

On the other hand, the atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal.

A breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 30, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart.The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if the current bearish pullback persists below 1.1700.

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Analysis of Gold for August 30, 2017

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Recently, the Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,305.00. According to the 30M time frame, I found a big sign of weakness in the background. There is a wide spread bar in an ultra high volume (buying climax) fallowed by no demand bars and up-thrust bars, which is a sign of weakness. The sellers absorbed buyers and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1,305.00 and $1,296.50.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,330.00

R2: $1,341.00

R3: $1,351.65

Support levels:

S1: $1,309.05

S2: $1,299.15

S3: $1,287.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for August 30, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1926 in a high volume. The yesterday's downward target at the price of 1.1985 has been met. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I see still downward pressure and my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The price broke yesterday's low at 1.1946 and there are up-thrust bars, which is a sign of weakness. I placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential downward targets. I got FE 100% at 1.1860 and FE 161.8% at the price of 1.1800.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2045

R2: 1.2120

R3: 1.2170

Support levels:

S1: 1.1920

S2: 1.1870

S3: 1.1800

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD for August 30, 2017

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Technical outlook:

We are approaching the end of August 2017 and as done in the early part of the month, a daily chart view has been presented with a larger picture in view for a broader trading plan for September 2017. As seen here, EUR/USD has formed a topping candlestick pattern called as a "Pinbar" yesterday, before reversing lower. It is trading more than 120 pips lower at 1.1945 levels for now and should be looking to push further lower going forward. The overall wave count from January 2017 suggests that EUR/USD has at least completed waves (1), (2) and (3), and is producing wave (4) as an expanded flat. As an alternate count, the pair might have completed five waves already and is going to produce a meaningful retracement lower. In both the probabilities mentioned here, the common point is a drop towards 1.1400/50 levels at least. A break below the immediate support trend line and subsequently below 1.1650 levels would confirm.

Trading plan:

Still, it is strongly recommended to remain short with a stop around 1.2100 levels targeting 1.1500 and lower.

GBP/USD chart setups:

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Technical outlook:

As done in the beginning of this month, we are again presenting a larger picture of GBP/USD on the daily chart depicted here. The wave counts are clearly suggesting that the counter trend corrective rally that began in mid-2016 has completed at 1.3267 levels, labeled as A-B-C here. Please also note that wave B had unfolded as a triangle and wave C took shape of a zigzag a-b-c respectively. Furthermore, we had tracked the entire month of August 2017, that wave 1 is ready on the downside since the entire drop between 1.3267 and 1.2770 levels had unfolded as an impulse (5 waves). It is expected that GBP/USD may rally one last time through 1.3075 levels to terminate into wave 2, before dropping lower again. If this wave count presented here holds to be true, GBP/USD should be well on its wave 3 lower below 1.2000 levels in the coming weeks or months.

Trading plan:

Remain short and add more at 1.3075 levels, stop above 1.3270, target 1.2600, 1.2300 and 1.2000.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for German Consumer Pricing Index to be out today at 0800 AM EST, followed by the USD GDP figures both Annualized and 2Q at 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 30, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7264 and 0.7247. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7264, which coincides with a golden ratio (50% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7264. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7264/0.7247. Hence, buy above the levels of 0.7264/0.7247 with the first target at 0.7306 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7320. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7337 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6274, a further decline to 0.7200 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 0.7247/0.7225 today.
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Global macro overview for 30/08/2017

Global macro overview for 30/08/2017:

The CB Consumer Confidence Index data were better than expected and supported the US Dollar. The August reading of the CB Consumer Confidence Index revealed an increase from 120.0 to 122.9 points. The result slightly exceeded expectations of 120.9 points. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2 points, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0 points.

Increase in confidence in August followed the moderate improvement In July as the US consumers had a more buoyant assessment of present-day conditions (primary driver). Consumers' short-term expectations were relatively flat, though still optimistic, suggesting that they do not anticipate an acceleration in the pace of economic activity in the months ahead. An important upbeat assessment was present in business and labor market current conditions, but the consumer's outlook for the future labor market was mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 18.5% to 17.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased marginally from 13.2% to 13.0%.

Today's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and Friday's NFP-Payrolls data will help to systematize the recent US job market data. Both of the anticipated releases should beat the market participants expectations and provide further acknowledgment for the continuing expansion of the US economy. This, in turn, might finally help to appreciate the US Dollar across the board in the mid-term.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. This good data release became a pretext to rebound a heavily overpriced US Dollar. The price bounced from the level of 91.63 and currently is testing the technical resistance at the level of 92.54. The market conditions are extremely oversold on various time frames, so the rebound might gain a little extra momentum upward. The most important technical resistance is still at the level of 94.11.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 30, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9601. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9601 to the bottom around 0.9430. But the pair has rebounded from the bottom of 0.9430 to close at 0.9560. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.9511, the price is moving in a bearish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the level of 0.9601, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance has been rejected several times confirming the veracity of a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend. As a result, if the USD/CHF pair is able to break out the first support at 0.9511, the market will decline further to 0.9430 in order to test the double bottom again. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. So, it will be good to sell below the level of 0.9601 with the first target at 0.9511 and further to 0.9430. However, stop loss is to be placed above the level of 0.9641.
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Global macro overview for 30/08/2017

Global macro overview for 30/08/2017:

The Building Approvals in Australia decreased less than expected last month. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Building Approvals declined at a seasonally adjusted -1.7%, while the market participants expected a deeper decline of -5.4% after an 11.7% increase in June. On an annual basis, building approvals were down 13.9%, official data showed.

Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of a recession. Moreover, building permits are monitored closely by investors, because they are considered a forerunner of future residential construction plans.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released recently the policy meeting minutes, warning about the overheating house market in Australia. Housing market conditions "warrant careful monitoring" were the exact words used by the policymakers in the statement. Despite the fact that the house prices are slowly stabilizing in Australia's biggest cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra, the prices are still rising apparently. In this situation, the overpriced values of houses have made it virtually impossible for younger buyers to enter the market. The situation on the overheated house market in Australia might not stabilize anytime soon and more approvals are being granted. It will be very interesting for the global investors to watch the next RBA meeting and their conclusions regarding the house market situation.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the 61% Fibo at the level of 0.7966, but the price is still trading inside of the golden channel and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator. The next technical support is seen at the level of 0.7905, but only a clear violation of the level of 0.7865 would put the bears back in control over this market.

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Trading plan for 30/08/2017

Trading plan for 30/08/2017:

The volatility of the major currencies against the US Dollar is minimal except for the gaining Australian Dollar. EUR/USD after yesterday's rally over the level of 1.2050, has spent today's Asian session in 20 pips range around 1.1975.Sentiment on the stock markets has improved, but the energy markets are suffering chaos caused by hurricane Harvey. The Wall Street session ended yesterday with a modest gain. The S&P500 futures contract is minimally extended to 2450 points.

On Wednesday 30th of August, the event calendar is busy with the important news releases. During the London session, Spain will present Consumer Price Index Flash data and Switzerland will post KOF Economic Barometer data for the last month. Later on, the UK will reveal Net Lending to Individuals and Mortgage Approvals data and Germany will present Preliminary CPI data for the last month. European Commission will release the Economic Sentiment index (ESI) data. During the US session, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data from the US will be posted, together with Second Release GDP and GDP Price Index data. Canada will present Current Account data.

EUR/USD analysis for 30/08/2017:

The European Commission Economic Sentiment index (ESI) data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and it will be quite interesting to see how hard the latest geopolitical uncertainties influenced the mood of the European investors. Economists think that the flash data for the consumer sentiment index in August will hold steady at -1.5 (close to a 10-year high) in revised numbers. The reason for such an elevated sentiment data lies in very good PMI figures from the Eurozone, that support the case for expecting that the euro area's economic recovery will endure in the second half of the year. If the Flash GDP reading will beat the expectations, then the Euro currency will receive another boost up across the board.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. After establishing a local top at the level of 1.2069, the market reversed back below the 1.2000 support and now is trading close to the 38% Fibo retracements of the up wave. There is a strong support zone between the levels of 1.1817 - 1.1865 and only a breakout below this zone will put the bears in control over this market for more complex and time-consuming correction. The current market conditions are oversold at the hourly time frame, but the momentum is still pointing to the downside.

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Market Snapshot: USD/JPY rebounds from lows

The evaporation of the geopolitical risk premium illustrates the fact that the price of USD/JPY rebounded sharply from the lows at the level of 108.27 and broken back above the technical resistance at the level of 109.84. The 150 pips move up might now target the area of important technical resistance, that lies between the levels of 110.61 - 111.04.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil breaks through 50% Fibo

There is a sharp reshuffle accompanying Hurricane Harvey on the energy commodity market. These include the chaotic and sharp fall in Crude Oil below the 505Fibo at the level of $46.23. Currently, the price is trading in a narrow range in oversold market conditions and the next technical resistance is seen at the level of $47.22.

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Trading plan for August 30, 2017

Trading plan for August 30, 2017

The general picture: The fall of the dollar is suspended. News in the US, the decision of the ECB is approaching, North Korea.

The situation on the market is very much confused.

The trend against the dollar was met with strong resistance.

The growth of EUR/USD reached its first targets slightly below 1.2100 and profit taking took place.

A sharp exacerbation around North Korea, though it caused the growth of the euro against the dollar (along with the franc and gold). But this is a nervous movement.

We see a strong pullback of the euro from 1.2065 to 1.1950. We are waiting for some consolidation.

Important point: Markets are switching to the ECB. A meeting on the euro already on September 7. Before the head of ECB Draghi is a difficult task, it's time to announce the completion of the growth stimulation program, but this may spur the growth of the euro which is extremely undesirable for Draghi. Nevertheless, the market will wait for the ECB.

Do not forget that soon the elections in Germany, September 27. This will put pressure on the euro.

In the moment: US news, the employment and GDP today. The employment report from ADP at 13.15 London time and GDP at 13.30 London time, we are expecting a strong data. We can see a new decline in the euro.

EUR/USD

Possible purchases with the target of 1.2065 but there may be a decrease to 1.1880

Sales from 1.2065 and higher with a stop not exceeding 45 pp.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for August 30, 2017

The Dollar index is bouncing but the trend remains bearish. We were expecting the price to reach 91.60 and it has made a low at 91.62 where it started a strong bounce above 92.

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The price is testing the kijun-sen resistance on the 4-hour chart. A rejection here will open the way for a move to new lows towards 90.50. Maximum short-term bounce target is at 93.40. I do not expect the Dollar index to move past that level now. I believe it is more probable to make a reversal from 92.50.

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Red lines - bearish channel

On a daily basis, the trend remains bearish. Resistance is at 92.70-93. Breaking above that level could push the index towards 94.50. The index justifies such a bounce or even a bigger one. However, I would prefer to remain neutral and look for levels to sell.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for August 30, 2017

The Gold price is pulling back from our $1,320 target we were expecting. The trend remains bullish. This pullback is still considered part of an up trend. Support is at $1,308 and next at $1,295.

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The Gold price is at the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. A break below it could push price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,295. Cloud support is at $1,288.

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Magenta line - resistance target

Black line -long-term resistance (broken)

Blue line -long-term support

The Gold price is trading above the Kumo (cloud) in 4hour daily and weekly charts. The trend is clearly bullish. Pullbacks are considered buying opportunities. The Gold price next important target is at $1,340-50 where the magenta trend line resistance is found.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 30, 2017

Forex analysis review
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 30, 2017

Korean Won wants war

Korean Won wants war.

Morning review.

On Tuesday morning, August 29, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un held a new launch of a ballistic missile towards the direction of Japan. In Japan, a warning system about the threat of a missile strike sounded.

This provides the full opportunity for U.S. President Trump to respond in the most severe way, even to a military strike - as the missile launches and North Korea's nuclear program heavily violates UN resolutions.

On Tuesday, an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the problem was scheduled.

Markets reacted predictably - gold rose sharply to $1,320.

The strengthening of the franc (lower USDCHF) caused a new round of growth to the EURUSD pair - in the morning to 1.2030.

Euro buying in current positions are unattractive. Selling is premature - no earlier than 1.2080 - 1.2100 with a stop not exceeding 45 pp.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for August 30, 2017

USD/CAD has recently bounced off the support level of 1.2450 which lead to some bullish momentum along the way. Due to the recent positive economic report of USD was published the bullish pressure was quite predictable but it is considered as non-sustaining. Today USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 185k from the previous figure of 178k, Prelim GDP is expected to increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.6%, Prelim GDP Price Index report is expected to be unchanged at 1.0% and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to show less deficit at -1.8M from the previous figure of -3.3M. As of the forecasts are quite positive for USD further gain on the USD is expected against CAD for the coming days. On the CAD side, today Current Account report is going to be published which is expected to show a greater deficit at -17.3B from the previous figure of -14.1B. CAD is expected to be quite weaker for a short-term period but overall CAD is still the stronger side in this pair which will lead to further bearish pressure in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure with a target towards 1.2450 and later at 1.1950. Though recently the price has bounced off the 1.2450 the bullish pressure it is expected to be very short term.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Aug 30, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Prelim CPI m/m. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Prelim GDP q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.2027.

Strong Resistance:1.2020.

Original Resistance: 1.2008.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1996.

Target Inner Area: 1.1968.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1940.

Original Support: 1.1928.

Strong Support: 1.1916.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1909.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Aug 30, 2017

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Prelim GDP Price Index q/q, Prelim GDP q/q, and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 110.35.

Resistance. 2: 110.14.

Resistance. 1: 109.92.

Support. 1: 109.66.

Support. 2: 109.44.

Support. 3: 109.23.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for August 30, 2017

EUR/JPY non-volatile bullish trend is quite intact which is expected to lead to further bullish pressure in this pair. JPY economic reports have been quite mixed recently where Household Spending report was published negative at -0.2% from the previous value of 2.3% which was expected to decrease at 0.8%, Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 2.8% and BOJ Core CPI report was published with a slight increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to decrease to 0.2%. Despite the positive economic reports, JPY failed to gain momentum over EUR yesterday which does signal that EUR is quite stronger in comparison. Today JPY Retail Sales report was published at 1.9% from the previous value of 2.2% which was expected to decrease to 1.0%. Though the report was better than expected the report also indicates to the slight decrease to 1.9% from 2.2% which might lead to further weakness of JPY over EUR in the coming days. On the EUR side, today German Prelim CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4% and Spanish Flash CPI report is expected to increase to 1.7% from the previous value of 1.5%. The expectation of the economic reports is quite mixed in this case but any positive outcome today will lead to further gain on EUR for the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above 130.60 support level which is expected to gain further with a target towards 132.20 resistance level. Recently the price has bounced off the dynamic level of 20 EMA which may lead to greater impulsiveness along the way. As the price remains above 128.50 support level the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for August 30, 2017

GBP/USD has recently shown a good rejection of bulls with a daily close which does indicate further bearish pressure in this pair. GBP has been quite neutral this week after the summer bank holiday celebrated recently whereas USD is expected to gain some momentum in the coming days. Today, GBP Net Lending Cash to Individuals report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 5.3B from the previous value of 5.6B, M4 Money Supply is expected to be positive at 0.4% from the previous value of -0.2% and Mortgage Approvals is expected to increase to 66k from the previous value of 65k. The expectations of the currency reports are quite positive today whereas any negative or worse outcome may lead to further weakness of the currency against USD in the coming days. On the USD side, today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 185k from the previous figure of 178k, Prelim GDP is expected to increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.6%, Prelim GDP Price Index report is expected to be unchanged at 1.0% and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to show less deficit at -1.8M from the previous figure of -3.3M. Along with these economic reports being published today FOMC Member Powell is going to speak about nation's key interest rates and future monetary policies which are expected to have a lower impact on the market today. To sum up, USD has been quite promising with the economic reports this week and further positive reports will lead to more gains against GBP for the coming days. Currently, as of the forecasts of USD economic reports, USD is expected to gain greater momentum against GBP in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently rejected off the trend line resistance which is expected to start the bearish pressure again in this pair with a target towards the support area of 1.2750-1.2800. If the price breaks below 1.2750 with a daily close in the coming days then further bearish move with a target towards 1.2550 is expected in the future. As the price remains below the trendline resistance with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for August 30, 2017

USD/JPY has bounced back off the support level of 108.40 yesterday which indicated that bulls are currently back in action now. Recently, JPY had mixed economic reports published which leads to weakness in JPY against USD. JPY Household Spending report was published negative at -0.2% from the previous value of 2.3% which was expected to be at 0.8%, Unemployment Rate was, however, unchanged at 2.8% but BOJ Core CPI report showed increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to decrease to 0.2%. On the USD side, recently CB Consumer Confidence report showed an increase to 122.9 from the previous value of 120.0 which was expected to be at 120.9, which helped the currency to gain good momentum against JPY. Today, JPY Retail Sales report was published at 1.9% from the previous value of 2.2% which was expected to decrease more to 1.0%. On the other hand, today USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 185k from the previous figure of 178k, Prelim GDP is expected to increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.6%, Prelim GDP Price Index report is expected to be unchanged at 1.0% and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to show less deficit at -1.8M from the previous figure of -3.3M. Along with these reports FOMC Member Powell is going to speak today about the nation's key interest rates and future monetary policies which are expected to be neutral in nature. To sum up, JPY has been quite weak currently despite the positive economic reports whereas USD is quite stronger in comparison. If the USD economic reports today come out positive we can expect the further gain on the USD side dominating the JPY more in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view, the price has recently bounced off the 108.40 support level which has pushed the price higher towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA. Currently, the price is expected to reach the resistance area of 110.20-60 and if the price breaks above the resistance area with a daily close then further bullish move towards 112.30 is expected. As the price remains below the resistance area of 110.20-60 the bearish bias is expected to continue whereas a daily close above it will change the bias.

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GBP/USD dropping nicely from our selling area, remain bearish

The price has reacted nicely off our selling area yesterday. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.2956 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a drop to at least 1.2837 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (55,5,3) is dropping nicely from our resistance with good downside potential.

Sell below 1.2956. Stop loss is at 1.2994. Take profit is at 1.2837.

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USD/CHF approaching major resistance, prepare to sell

The price is approaching major resistance at 0.9591 (Multiple Fibonacci retracements, horizontal overlap resistance) and we expect a strong reaction off this level for a push down to at least 0.9490 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 97% where we expect a corresponding reaction similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 0.9591. Stop loss is at 0.9629. Take profit is at 0.9490.

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NZD/USD remain bullish above major support

We remain bullish looking to buy above major support at 0.7202 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a further push up to at least 0.7331 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

RSI (34) sees an ascending support line holding the price up but faces intermediate resistance at 57%.

Buy below 0.7202. Stop loss is at 0.7153. Take profit is at 0.7331.

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USD/JPY profit target reached perfectly, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up perfectly from our buying area and reached our profit target. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 109.80 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, descending resistance) for a push down to at least 108.66 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is approaching major resistance at 96% where we expect a drop from.

Sell below 109.80. Stop loss is at 110.45. Take profit is at 108.66.

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AUD/JPY profit target reached once again, prepare to sell

The price has reached our profit target once again. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 87.74 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension) for a push down to at least 86.48 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing resistance at 95% where we expect a corresponding drop similar to the one we're expecting on price.

Sell below 87.74. Stop loss is at 88.06. Take profit is at 86.48.

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AUD/USD bounced perfectly above our buying area and reached our profit target. Prepare to sell

The price bounced perfectly from our buying area and reached our profit target. We prepare to sell below 0.7979 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) for a push down to at least 0.7909 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal is impending.

Sell below 0.7979. Stop loss is at 0.8003. Take profit is at 0.7909.

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Daily analysis of major pairs for August 30, 2017

EUR/USD: After a smooth bullish run that was seen earlier this week, there has been a minor correction after the resistance line at 1.2050 was reached, testing the support line at 1.2000. The support line at 1.2000 ought to do a good job impeding further bearish correction, otherwise, it would be difficult for the price to go above it once it is breached to the downside.

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USD/CHF: Following the recent bearish movement on the USD/CHF, there is an upwards bounce, which is expected to offer opportunities to go short at better prices. The support level at 0.9450 was tested before price bounced upwards towards the resistance level at 0.9550. Further bearish movement is expected from here.

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GBP/USD: There is already a bullish signal on the Cable (4-hour chart). The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. Although there seems to be a threat to the bullish signal, it is expected that price would continue going upwards reaching the distribution territory at 1.2950, which has been previously tested. After price goes above the distribution territory, the next target would be another distribution territory at 1.3000.

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USD/JPY: This pair bounced seriously upwards after testing the demand level at 108.50. This action has become a challenge to the extant bearish bias on the market, and as soon as the supply level at 110.50 is breached to the upside, a bullish bias would be formed. But right now, it is OK to stay on the sidelines until the supply level at 110.50 is breached to the upside or until the price goes downward from here.

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EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has generated a bullish signal since last Friday and price has gained about 240 pips since then, now testing the supply zone at 131.50. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further upwards movement is expected. The next targets are the supply zones at 132.00 and 132.50.

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Daily analysis of USDX for August 30, 2017

The index continues to have pressure across the board and the 200 SMA is helping to guide the path in the near-term. So far, the support zone of 92.51 is still holding and bears are starting to lose some steam around that area. That's why we expect some moves that correct the overall trend and the resistance level of 93.09 could be the first target.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 93.09 / 93.72

H1 chart's support levels: 92.51 / 92.09

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 91.67, take profit is at 92.09 and stop loss is at 92.83.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for August 30, 2017

The pair remains favored by the weakness in the US Dollar and now it's testing the resistance level of 1.2958. With a breakout above that zone, we can expect further strength towards 1.3013 and it's something that indicators are favoring. However, corrective moves should take place towards the 200 SMA at H1 chart.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2958 / 1.3013

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2842 / 1.2761

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.2958, take profit is at 1.3013 and stop loss is at 1.2903.

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Gold receive boost from Asia

The XAU / USD pair climbed to the its highest since the US presidential elections. The silence of central banks and the escalation of the conflict in the Korean peninsula have allowed prices of gold futures to soar.

The silence of central banks and the escalation of the conflict in the Korean peninsula have allowed the gold futures quotes to soar to the maximum levels since the presidential elections in the United States. At the end of 2016, precious metal lost about 10% of its value on expectations of overclocking of the US economy to 3%, thanks to the stimulant programs of Donald Trump. In reality, everything turned out differently. This allowed prices to grow by 15.4% since the beginning of the year.

Just a week ago, BofA Merrill Lynch put out a forecast of $ 1,400 per ounce on the backdrop of the inability of presidential initiatives to pass the Congress, reducing the likelihood of monetary tightening of the Fed and the escalation conflict over North Korea. The first two factors were presented as workers, but it was hard to believe in the resuscitation of geopolitical risks. The the conflict between Washington and Pyongyang was extinguished very quickly. This made it possible for the parties involved to talk about the existence of a backstage agreement. Nevertheless, the joint exercises of the United States and South Korea were not without the attention of its northern neighbor. For the first time since 1998, a ballistic missile flying over the territory of Japan reminded everybody that without the participation of the US, geopolitical risks remain and, most likely, will remain elevated.

However, there is still the problem of the national debt ceiling, the uncertainty about the tax reforms, and the investigation of Russia's interference in the presidential elections. Political risk in the US continues to creep up, which does not allow the dollar to go into a counter-attack.

The dynamics of political risks in the US

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Source: Financial Times.

Dynamics of gold and the dollar index

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Source: Bloomberg.

Add to this the Fed's slowness in raising the federal funds rate, the probability of replacing Janet Yellen with Gary Cohen, and the risks of a weakening US economy under the influence of one the top 10 most expensive calamity, hurricane "Harvey". It immediately becomes clear that investors have many arguments that they can use in order to keep 5-10% of their portfolios in gold. According to the Commission on Commodity Futures, financial managers are the most "bullish" in precious metals over the past 11 months. Their short positions have gone down to the lowest level in 3 years.

It is possible that a strong report on the US labor market will cause some investors to fix profits, which will provoke the rollback of XAU / USD. Nevertheless, positive data from macroeconomic indicators without clarifying the position of the Fed means little. And while Yellen prefers to bypass monetary policy issues in Jackson Hole by not giving any hints regarding a third increase in the federal funds rate for 2017, the US dollar has a hard time.

Technically, gold managed to return to the borders of the previous medium-term upstream trading channel, which indicates the strength of the bulls. As a result of the rapid attack of buyers, an important area of convergence at the range of $ 1320-1325 per ounce was achieved. Here, there is a target of 78.6% for the reversed Gartley pattern and a correction level of 78.6% of the last medium-term downward wave. To continue the northern trend of "bulls", it is necessary to keep quotes above this area.

Gold, daily chart

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EUR/USD analysis for August 29, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2070 in an ultra high volume. Anyway, according to the 15M time frame, I found buying climax in the background, which is a sign of weakness. After the climax activity, I found a no demand bar and upthrust, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.1985.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2000

R2: 1.2030

R3: 1.2070

Support levels:

S1: 1.1935

S2: 1.1890

S3: 1.1865

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for August 29, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2978 in an ultra high volume. Anyway, according to the 30M time frame, I found buying climax in the background, which is a sign of weakness. After the climax activity, I found a weak demand, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2925 and 1.2900.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2960

R2: 1.2990

R3: 1.3040

Support levels:

S1: 1.2890

S2: 1.2845

S3: 1.2815

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for August 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair bullish trend from the support levels of 0.7264 and 0.7281. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.7264, which coincides with a golden ratio (50% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.7264. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.7264/0.7281. Hence, buy above the levels of 0.7264/0.7281 with the first target at 0.7306 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7320. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7337 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6274, a further decline to 0.7225 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for August 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair has faced strong resistances at the levels of 0.9475 because support had become resistance on August 29, 2017. So, the strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9475 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9475, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9475. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the area of 0.9475/0.9500 so it will be good to sell at 0.9475 with the first target of 0.9406. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9367. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9367. However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9515.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 29, 2017

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Daily Outlook

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhances the bearish side of the market. This brings the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) where recent weak bullish recovery was manifested on August 16.

On the other hand, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern is being expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.

Breakdown of the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Expected bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 29, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allows a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The nearest supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2080-1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection can be anticipated.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 should be watched for a valid BUY entry if a bearish pullback occurs soon.

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