Global macro overview for 30/08/2017

Global macro overview for 30/08/2017:

The CB Consumer Confidence Index data were better than expected and supported the US Dollar. The August reading of the CB Consumer Confidence Index revealed an increase from 120.0 to 122.9 points. The result slightly exceeded expectations of 120.9 points. The Present Situation Index increased from 145.4 to 151.2 points, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 103.0 last month to 104.0 points.

Increase in confidence in August followed the moderate improvement In July as the US consumers had a more buoyant assessment of present-day conditions (primary driver). Consumers' short-term expectations were relatively flat, though still optimistic, suggesting that they do not anticipate an acceleration in the pace of economic activity in the months ahead. An important upbeat assessment was present in business and labor market current conditions, but the consumer's outlook for the future labor market was mixed. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined from 18.5% to 17.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased marginally from 13.2% to 13.0%.

Today's ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and Friday's NFP-Payrolls data will help to systematize the recent US job market data. Both of the anticipated releases should beat the market participants expectations and provide further acknowledgment for the continuing expansion of the US economy. This, in turn, might finally help to appreciate the US Dollar across the board in the mid-term.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. This good data release became a pretext to rebound a heavily overpriced US Dollar. The price bounced from the level of 91.63 and currently is testing the technical resistance at the level of 92.54. The market conditions are extremely oversold on various time frames, so the rebound might gain a little extra momentum upward. The most important technical resistance is still at the level of 94.11.


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