EUR/USD Preview of the week: Trade talks, Super Thursday and Brexit's fate

The US labor market data released on Friday has failed to support the dollar. The greenback slightly weakened its position together with the euro but still remained within the 10th figure. Traders were in no hurry with trading decisions until Jerome Powell's speech, which took place 4 hours after the Nonfarm.

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Expectations have largely justified themselves as the head of the Fed appreciated the published data and the state of the American economy as a whole. While Powell simultaneously predicted a slowdown in economic growth, he assured those present that the Fed was not expecting a recession. In general, his rhetoric was "positively cautious." In his opinion, the American labor market will continue to show strong growth and US GDP growth will be 2% - 2.5% this year, mainly due to an increase in consumer activity. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve again recalled the consequences of the trade war. He noted that growing uncertainty is putting strong pressure on business investment. This factor, according to Powell, forces companies to "postpone investment decisions."

As for the prospects of monetary policy, here the head of the Fed did not go into any details. Again, he repeated the phrase that the regulator "will act adequately to the current situation using monetary policy tools to support the country's economy." This is a vague wording that can be interpreted in different ways - both in favor of a wait-and-see attitude and in favor of decisive action. Nevertheless, Jerome Powell and his other colleagues who spoke last week on the eve of the 10-day "silence regime" made it clear that the Fed's next steps will depend mainly on the dynamics of the US-China trade war and on the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators.

In this context, the most important day of the week for the EUR/USD pair is Thursday on September 12th. We will find out the basic data on the growth of American inflation in August. According to preliminary forecasts, the general consumer price index will show a negative trend: it will drop to 0.1% in monthly terms and to 1.7% in annual terms. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, should also drop to 0.2% on a monthly basis but grow a little to 2.3% in annual terms. As you can see, experts predict a rather contradictory picture. If all the indicators come out at the indicated levels, the dollar will undoubtedly remain under the background pressure in anticipation of the September meeting of the Fed, which will take place next week, September 18.

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It is noteworthy that another important event, a meeting of the European Central Bank, for the EUR/USD pair will take place this Thursday. Without exaggeration, we can say that the fate of the euro in the medium term (and possibly long term) depends on this meeting of members of the European regulator. Over the past few weeks, there has not been a debate among experts regarding further action by the ECB. According to the general opinion of analysts, the Central Bank will reduce the deposit rate by either 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points, starting to acquire assets at the same time by 30-40 billion euros per month. However, according to the latest rumors, a serious split occurred in the ranks of the ECB, which could hinder the implementation of the above scenario. According to the opponents of the "dovish" ECB, a further reduction in the rate will have serious side effects for the banking system in Europe.

As the CEO of Deutsche Bank noted last week at current rates, Europeans annually lose more than 160 billion euros in their savings. Further steps of the Central Bank in this direction will only aggravate the situation, provoking a "greater split in society." By and large, they have been talking about this for a long time. Mario Draghi himself has repeatedly focused on the side effects of low rates. And at the beginning of this year, German bankers sent an open appeal to the ECB, in which they urged the European Central Bank to introduce a differentiated rate on deposits. The option of lowering the rate further to the negative area of speech was not even discussed then.

In other words, the September intrigue is still intact. If the ECB unexpectedly maintains a wait and see position, the euro will receive strong support throughout the market, including paired with the dollar.

In addition, preliminary consultations between the US-China negotiation groups will begin this week. Members of the working group will set the stage for the 13th round of high-level negotiations, which is due to take place in early October. News "from the field" of the negotiation process can have a fairly strong impact on the dollar. Also, the foreign exchange market will monitor the situation with Brexit. The House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the bill of the House of Commons on Friday night, which obliges Boris Johnson to ask Brussels for another postponement. But there is another problem,according to the French Foreign Minister, the European Union may not agree to transfer Brexit. According to him, Brussels "is not going to do this every three months, while the British Parliament does not support the draft deal and does not support a "tough" scenario. " At the same time, he threatened London to veto the postponement of Brexit if the rest of the EU countries support this idea. Thus, now the "ball is on the side of Europe", and the European currency will be keenly responsive to the dynamics of the current situation.

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From a technical point of view, the situation remained the same: at the end of the week, EUR/USD traders will either be able to "pull out" the price above the 11th figure (in the range of 1.1090-1.1210), or the downward trend will continue to the ninth figure with the prospect of a decrease to the middle of the seventh figure. This is where most powerful support level is 1.0750, which was the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly chart.

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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 09/09/2019 and a trading recommendation

The strongest and most successful opposition to Boris Johnson's plans by the House of Commons has contributed to a serious increase in the pound. After all, strange as it may seem, this is precisely what reduces the risk of an unregulated Brexit, the consequences of which, for the British economy, are almost impossible to predict. We are talking about the negative consequences.

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However, the battles continue, and today the intensity of the struggle can reach a new level. Firstly, the Queen must sign a bill today, which prohibits secession from the European Union without an agreement. Indeed, through this, MPs mean an agreement that governs all issues of the subsequent interaction of Great Britain with the continent, especially on trade and economy. However, these points particularly do not exist in the agreement. Europe itself is not eager to include them there, constantly assuring that they will sit at the negotiating table on this issue, immediately after Brexit. But British MPs do not intend to buy a pig in a poke, because they understand that they can be trivially deceived. After all, Britain itself has rich experience in delivering such promises. The MPs also understand that there is almost no time left, and the bill is accompanied by a document obliging the government of Boris Johnson to ask for another postponement of Brexit, which is to be held on October 31. But problems can arise with this point, and it is no longer the fault of the new prime minister. The fact is that over the weekend, the French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves le Drian, said the Third Republic could veto another deferment. According to him, the reason is that the UK cannot decide what it wants in any way, and is in no way able to formulate its proposals on a divorce agreement. This issue cannot be drawn-out forever. However, there is virtually no doubt that Elizabeth II will sign a bill that bans Brexit without a deal.

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In addition, a vote will be held on the issue of early parliamentary elections in the House of Commons today, which Boris Johnson wants to hold on October 15. However, the House of Commons, although it is ready to go to early elections, but not earlier than October 30, just in order for the government to manage to get a delay on Brexit until January 31 .Given the clear advantage of the prime minister's opponents, Boris Johnson will lose once again.

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It is interesting that all this fuss will lead to a complete disregard of data on industrial production in the UK, which is still decreasing by 0.6%. There is every reason to believe that the decline will increase to 1.1%. But the hype surrounding Brexit will overshadow macroeconomic data.

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After a rapid upward move, the GBP/USD pair still managed to find a resistance point in the form of a range level of 1.2350, where it formed a slowdown and a gradual corrective movement. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see that the quote temporarily overcame the peak of the previous corrective movement of 1.2307, which from the point of view of technical analysis means a slowdown in the downward trend, but due to the fact that the move was fully tied to the information background should not draw hasty conclusions. In other words, the quote could simply inflate, reflecting local interest.

It is likely to assume that the corrective move may persist on the market, reflecting the recovery process, where a number of levels 1.2215 --- 1.2150 are located before the quote. At the same time, do not forget about the information background, as I wrote above.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

• Long positions, if we consider it, in the event of price consolidation above 1.2350, or after the recovery process.

• We consider short positions as a further decline towards 1.2215 --- 1.2150.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on the minute and hour intervals signal sales, reflecting the recovery process. The daily period still reflects upward interest due to the impulse move.

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Forecast for AUD / USD on September 9, 2019

AUD / USD

Last Friday, the price reached the goal that it was striving so hard for - the point of intersection of two lines of different-speed price channels on the daily chart - 0.6856. In the previous review, we assumed a price reversal from this resistance due to the departure of the Marlin oscillator signal line on the four-hour chart to the overbought zone, however, Marlin showed a trick - it was discharged with continued price growth. In this case, the price may exit above the level of 1.6856, and perhaps, the price will increase to 0.6912 - the minimum of July 10, it is possible that this exit will be much weaker.

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If the "Australian" changes its mind to make such a false exit up, the price will be waiting for a reversal down from the current levels today. The first goal will be to support the MACD line at the four-hour 0.6787. Consolidating under the line opens the possibility of a decline to the support of the price channel at daily 0.6685, which is very close to the minimums of August and September.

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Trading plan for EUR/USD for September 09, 2019

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Technical outlook:

The euro is testing fibonacci 0.618 resistance of its recent drop between 1.1165 and 1.0926 levels. A continued push higher would target resistance at 1.1165. Please note that it is expected to drop to at least 1.0980 levels before a further trajectory is determined. The dropping resistance trend line is still intact and hence a break below 1.0960 would imply that the downward trend would continue further. The expected levels for that are 1.0850 and lower before resuming a pullback. Looking into the overall wave counts, a potential Wave C might have either terminated at 1.0926 within the A-B-C drop that begun from 1.2555 levels earlier. At least a break above 1.1165 levels and ideally above 1.1250 levels would be required to confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place. From the technical viewpoint, it is recommended to review situation at 1.0960/80 levels and then decide to go long again.

Trading plan:

Remain flat for now, watch for a potential bounce around 1.0960/80 levels.

Good luck!

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 9, 2019

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GBP/JPY is correcting as expected and should ideally move closer to 129.41 as the correcting in red wave ii evolves. Short-term, we expect minor resistance at 131.69 to cap the upside for more downside pressure towards 130.06 and 129.41 to complete red wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in red wave iii towards 135.40.

R3: 132.55

R2: 132.16

R1: 131.69

Pivot: 131.54

S1: 130.94

S2: 130.49

S3: 130.19

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for buy GBP near 129.50

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 9, 2019

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EUR/JPY is correcting as expected. We are looking for a correction towards minor support at 117.24 and maybe closer to the 61.8% corrective target at 116.91 before the next impulsive rally is be expected. Only a direct break above minor resistance at 118.27 will call for a second rally to 118.61 before renewed downside pressured towards 117.24 should be expected in a more complex correction.

Once this correction is done, a new impulsive rally higher to 123.13 is still expected.

R3: 119.00

R2: 118.61

R1: 118.27

Pivot: 117.95

S1: 117.63

S2: 117.24

S3: 116.91

Trading recommendation:

We remain 50% long EUR from 116.80 and will re-buy 50% at 117.40.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 9, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the continuation of the downward movement with the target of 1.1007 is possible - a pullback level of 50.0% (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the downward movement will continue.

The first lower target of 1.1007 is a pullback level of 50.0.% (blue dashed line), when breaking through the next target of 1.0988 – a pullback level of 61.8% (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 9, 2019 for the GBP / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, the price may continue to move down with the target of a pullback level of 23.6% - 1.2261 (blue dashed line) and in case of breaking further down, to a pullback level of 38.2% - 1.2203 (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger Lines - up;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, a downward movement is expected.

An unlikely scenario is an upward movement with the first target of 1.2341 - resistance line (red bold line).

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 09/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

A top official from the Chinese central bank has confirmed that the upcoming national digital currency will be similar to the Libra token.

Mu Changchun - deputy director of the Payments Department of the Chinese People's Bank (PBoC) - said that China's digital currency will be supported on major electronic payment platforms such as WeChat Tencata and supported by Alibaba Alipay.

Tokens will be guaranteed by the central bank, and thus as secure as banknotes issued by PBoC, in addition, they can be used without an Internet connection to ensure the continuation of the transaction even in the event of communication network failure.

Speaking about the country's motivations for the introduction of digital currency, Mu argued that the coin would help protect the sovereignty of China's foreign currencies, even if the numerous commercial uses of digital currencies gain popularity:

"Why does the central bank continue to use such digital currency, since today's electronic payment methods are so developed? This is to protect our monetary sovereignty and the legal status of the currency. We must plan ahead for a rainy day," he said.

As noticed by Mu, the upcoming national digital currency will seek to provide anonymous payments while preventing money laundering. He explained that although the payment-focused currency will have a similarity to Libra, it will not be a direct copy.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken through the descending trendline around the level of $177.07 and made a new local high at the level of $183.43. Currently, the market is testing the trendline from above, hovering around the technical support located at the level of $175.00. In order to regain control of the market, the bulls will have to make a new local high again and head towards the level of $193.52 in an impulsive fashion, otherwise, the bears might push the prices lower towards the support at $172 and $164.81 again.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $207.64

WR2 - $195.13

WR1 - $188.15

Weekly Pivot - $176.09

WS1 - $169.04

WS2 - $156.97

WS3 - $149.69

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the lower wave degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume soon. The global investors are waiting for a breakout above the level of $202.59 and $238.68 to confirm the resumption of the uptrend.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 09/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

Well-known emerging market investor Mark Mobius believes that Bitcoin must be backed by gold to have any value.

In a TV interview, Mobius expressed concerns about the risks associated with cryptocurrencies and Blockchain technology. When the interviewer asked if Mobius believes that Bitcoin has innate value, the famous investor avoided directly answering this question, arguing that the world really needs a cryptocurrency that would be supported by gold.

"If there is a cryptocurrency that is really backed by gold - and that means there is a significant deal and something modern like that - then it can be quite interesting," says Mobius.

The interviewer noted that there is no fiat currency secured with gold while asking the question of why any crypto must have the same support, Mobius admitted that the key in this matter is the issue of faith. Mobius explained that there is a whole generation of people who believe in the Internet as well as for cryptocurrencies, and "that's enough."

"The reason people believe in the US dollar is that they believe that with dollars in their hands they can buy something. So there is a degree where if a cryptocurrency can let you buy something and you think it is, then it's okay "- he added.

Repeating his recent statements that it is a matter of faith whether people believe in Bitcoin or any other crypto, the investment veteran has still stressed industry concerns, arguing that people will soon begin to realize that cryptocurrencies are very risky.

What's more, Blockchain technology is also a serious risk, Mobius noted, stating that Blockchain can be hacked, just like all human-made technologies, despite its immutability.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has completed the impulsive wave 1 to the upside and currently, the market is in the corrective cycle that might extend lower. The first target is seen at the level of $10,074, which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up, and the next target is seen at the level of 61% Fibonacci at $9,882. Those two targets are high-probability level for the wave 2 to terminate and to start the wave 3 to the upside.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $12,244

WR2 - $11,525

WR1 - $10,919

Weekly Pivot - $10,260

WS1 - $9,607

WS2 - $8,906

WS3 - $8,306

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The wave 2 corrective cycles is about to be completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree. Any violation of the level of $9,231 invalidates the bullish impulsive scenario.

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GBP/USD facing bearish pressure from resistance, potential for further drop!

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GBPUSD is facing bearish pressure from our first resistance where we could be seeing a further drop below this level.

Entry: 1.2383

Why it's good : horizontal pullback resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.2522

Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.2167

Why it's good: Horizontal overlap support, 50% Fibonacci retracement

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AUD/USD on strong support, look for a bounce!

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AUDUSD is seeing strong support above 0.6822, look to play the bounce to 0.6879.

Entry: 0.6822

Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance

23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit : 0.6879

Why it's good: 50%% fibonacci retracementStop Loss: 0.6796Why it's good: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

Horizontal pullback support

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Control zones GBPUSD 09/09/19

Last week's close was outside the average weekly move. The pair reached the weekly control zone 1.2327-1.2294. This indicates an increase in the probability of forming a correction model. The main target of the fall will be the upper limit of the middle course zone, located at the level of 1.2168.

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It is important to note that the range of the average course coincides with the WCZ 1/2 1.2185-1.2169, which allows us to consider these prices when searching for a pattern to buy.

The probability of a corrective decline in the pair is at 90%, which implies the benefit of searching for patterns in the direction of continued growth. There is little chance that the upward movement will continue from current levels. This is possible due to the strength of the upward movement. It took place practically without kickbacks, which indicates a large number of market buyers who agree to buy at increasingly higher prices.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has rallied towards the level of 1.2308 and broke above it eventually. The new high was made at the level of 1.2353 in overbought market conditions. Since then, the price has fallen out the channel and is trading below the recent high at 1.2308. The next target for bears, if they will continue the pull-back is seen at the level of 1.2224 or even at the level of 1.2175. The larget timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2838

WR2 - 1.2600

WR1 - 1.2467

Weekly Pivot - 1.2210

WS1 - 1.2063

WS2 - 1.1816

WS3 - 1.1679

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2429 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 9. UK GDP data could lead to a breakdown of 1.2270 and a greater correction

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The euphoria from the failures of Boris Johnson that he suffered last week will gradually go away, as will the demand for the British pound. Today's GDP report may lead to an even greater downward correction of the pound, so buyers are hoping for continued growth, but it will be extremely difficult to do so. Resistance at 1.2333 continues to be a problem, and its break will provide a larger upward trend to the area of highs 1.2387 and 1.2427, where I recommend taking profits. However, it is best to make more rational purchases after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.2270, or to buy a rebound from the low of 1.2214, which can be updated after the release of weak data on GDP and industrial production.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers did not allow the market to continue its growth on Friday, and they also failed to realize the first support level of 1.2280, which has now moved to 1.2270. An important task for the bears remains to consolidate below this range today, and fundamental data will help in this, since, most likely, the growth of the UK economy will continue to slow down further. The breakdown of 1.2270 will lead to a larger profit consolidation and to update lows 1.2214 and 1.2161, where I recommend taking profits, as new large buyers will return to the market from there. If the bullish momentum persists, and the pair breaks above the resistance of 1.2333, it is best to consider new short positions after updating highs of 1.2387 and 1.2427.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates some market uncertainty in the short term.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound increases, a break of the upper boundary at 1.2310 will lead to a new wave of growth. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2270 may strengthen the downward correction.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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USD/JPY approaching upside confirmation, potential bounce!

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USDJPY is approaching upside confirmation at 107.08, if breaks above this level, could go up further.

Entry :107.08

Why it's good :horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 107.48

Why it's good :61.8% Fibonacci retracement

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 09/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is trading around the level of 1.1027 - 1.1034 after the rally has failed to breakout above the 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.1072. In order to regain control over the price, the bulls have to break through this level and go higher towards the next target located at the level of 1.1091 and then at 1.1167. For now, the bullish momentum is decreasing as the RSI indicator hovers around the level of 50 in overbought market conditions. The larger timeframe trend remains down, but the Ending Diagonal price pattern on Weekly and Daily timeframe charts is still valid.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1261

WR2 - 1.1174

WR1 - 1.1105

Weekly Pivot - 1.1012

WS1 - 1.0944

WS2 - 1.0856

WS3 - 1.0789

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 9. Sellers continue to trample on the level of 1.1020, and growth depends

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

On Friday, buyers of the euro made an attempt to continue growth amid weak data on the US labor market, but to break above the resistance of 1.1053 was not a success, as in other things, and to break below the support of 1.1020. At the moment, the focus in the first half of the day will be to break through the level of 1.1053, which will lead to an update of last week's high in the area of 1.1082, where I recommend taking profits. A larger growth should not be expected due to the lack of important fundamental statistics. Under the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD, you can count on support in the region of 1.1020, however, opening long positions from there is best after a false breakdown, or buy the pair for a rebound from a low of 1.0989.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers are activated after an update of resistance at 1.1053, and the formation of a false breakdown there will be the first signal to open short positions while expecting a return and correction to the support of 1.1020. However, a breakthrough and consolidation below this low continues to e a more important task, which will push EUR/USD to the area of large levels 1.0989 and 1.0955, where I recommend taking profits. In the scenario of further growth above the resistance of 1.1053, it is best to count on selling on a rebound from the high of 1.1082, which kept the pair yesterday from further growth last week.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the upward trend will be stopped near the upper boundary of the indicator 1.1055, while support will be provided by the lower boundary in the 1.1015 area, a break which will increase pressure on the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, September 09, 2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as Sentix Investor Confidence and German Trade Balance. The US will not publish any economic data today, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1074. Strong Resistance: 1.1068. Original Resistance: 1.1057. Inner Sell Area: 1.1046. Target Inner Area: 1.1021. Inner Buy Area: 1.0996. Original Support: 1.0985. Strong Support: 1.0974. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0968. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, September 09, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Economy Watchers Sentiment, Final GDP q/q, Final GDP Price Index y/y, Current Account, and Bank Lending y/y, while the US will not publish any economic data today. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 107.42. Resistance. 2: 107.21. Resistance. 1: 107.00. Support. 1: 106.75. Support. 2: 106.54. Support. 3: 106.33.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 9, 2019

EUR/USD

The US Department of Labor Friday report was neutral positive; in the non-agricultural sector, 130 thousand new jobs were created against the expectation of 163 thousand, in July the indicator was lowered to 159 thousand from 164 thousand, but the share of economically active population increased from 63.0% to 63.2% and hourly wages increased by 0.4% in August. Markets could not decide whether these indicators are sufficient to mitigate monetary policy or not.

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The euro closed Friday with a symbolic decline. On the daily chart, the situation remains falling - the price is below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, between the Fibonacci levels of 138.2% and 123.6%, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the declining trend zone.

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On the four-hour chart, the situation is completely increasing - the price is above the indicator lines, Marlin is in the growth zone. To develop a medium-term fall, the price should consolidate below the MACD line at H4 (1.1007) and the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0986) - the nearest target of 1.0844 will open - the Fibonacci level is 161.8%. For a possible upward movement of the euro towards a target of 1.1157, formed by the intersection of three lines on the daily chart, 123.6% must be consolidated above the Fibonacci level at the price of 1.1073.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 9, 2019

GBP/USD

After touching the Fibonacci level of 200.0% on Thursday, the price did not attempt to once again attack the level on Friday and retreated by another 43 points. This morning, the price lies on the balance line, which makes it more comfortable to settle on the support of the MACD line and the price channel line, at around 1.2188. Consolidation below this mark opens the bearish target of 1.2034 - Fibonacci level of 261.8%. Next to it is the second target level of 1.1986 - the Fibonacci level of 271.0%.

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The four-hour chart shows that before the first target of 1.2188, 1.2242 is located ahead of the price - support for the MACD line. Overcoming this indicator line will be the first signal to further pull down the British pound. The intermediate band support 1.2077-1.2107 is also visible here.

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The growth of the pound is possible after the price goes above the signal level of 1.2381 formed by the July 17 low.

Today, the UK is expected to yield weak economic indicators; industrial production in July could reach -0.3%, the trade balance for July is projected at -9.6 billion pounds against -7.0 billion in June. We focus on the development of a lowering scenario.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs for September 9

Forecast for September 9:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1155, 1.1122, 1.1097, 1.1047, 1.1008, 1.0987, 1.0960 and 1.0926. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1047. In this case, the target is 1.1097. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.1097 - 1.1122. We consider the level of 1.1155 to be a potential value for the upward trend. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1008 - 1.0987. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.0960. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its passage at the price will lead to the formation of a local downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.0926.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1047 Take profit: 1.1095

Buy 1.1098 Take profit: 1.1120

Sell: 1.1008 Take profit: 1.0988

Sell: 1.0985 Take profit: 1.0960

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2460, 1.2408, 1.2351, 1.2300, 1.2266, 1.2218 and 1.2190. Here, we follow the development of the upward cycle of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2351. In this case, the target is 1.2408. The breakdown of which, in turn, will allow us to count on the movement to the potential target - 1.2460. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.2300 - 1.2266. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2218. The range of 1.2218 - 1.2190 is a key support for the upward cycle.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2351 Take profit: 1.2406

Buy: 1.2409 Take profit: 1.2460

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.2264 Take profit: 1.2220

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9991, 0.9974, 0.9947, 0.9917, 0.9865, 0.9849, 0.9824 and 0.9796. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 4. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9917. In this case, the target is 0.9947, near this level is a price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.9947 will lead to movement to a potential target - 0.9974. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation in the range of 0.9974 - 0.9991, as well as a rollback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9865 - 0.9849. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9824. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the ascending structure of September 4.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9917 Take profit: 0.9945

Buy : 0.9948 Take profit: 0.9972

Sell: 0.9865 Take profit: 0.9850

Sell: 0.9847 Take profit: 0.9826

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.76, 107.49, 107.17, 106.80, 106.60 and 106.29. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 107.17. In this case, the target is 107.49. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 107.49 - 107.76. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.12. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 106.80 - 106.60. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the goal is 106.29. This level is a key support for the top.

Main trend: local upward structure from September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 107.17 Take profit: 107.46

Buy : 107.50 Take profit: 107.74

Sell: 106.80 Take profit: 106.62

Sell: 106.58 Take profit: 106.30

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3259, 1.3230, 1.3208, 1.3155, 1.3117, 1.3094 and 1.3052. Here, we follow the development of the descending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3155. In this case, the target is 1.3117. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3117 - 1.3094. We consider the level of 1.3052 to be a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3208 - 1.3230. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.3259. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the descending structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3208 Take profit: 1.3230

Buy : 1.3232 Take profit: 1.3259

Sell: 1.3155 Take profit: 1.3120

Sell: 1.3116 Take profit: 1.3095

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6918, 0.6884, 0.6867, 0.6827, 0.6814 and 0.6793. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.6884 - 0.6867. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.6918. We expect a pullback to the bottom from this level.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.6827 - 0.6814. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the potential target is 0.6793. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6868 Take profit: 0.6882

Buy: 0.6886 Take profit: 0.6918

Sell : 0.6826 Take profit : 0.6815

Sell: 0.6812 Take profit: 0.6795

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.60, 119.05, 118.78, 118.34, 117.81, 117.53 and 117.08. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the ascending structure of September 3. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 118.34. In this case, the target is 118.78. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 118.78 - 119.05. The breakdown of level 119.05 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement towards a potential target - 119.60. We expect a pullback from this level to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.81 - 117.53. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 117.08. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.36 Take profit: 118.76

Buy: 118.78 Take profit: 119.05

Sell: 117.80 Take profit: 117.55

Sell: 117.50 Take profit: 117.10

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 134.74, 134.10, 132.94, 132.18, 131.36, 130.71 and 129.70. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of September 3. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 132.18 - 132.94. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 134.10. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 134.74. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 131.36 - 130.71. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 129.70. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of September 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 132.20 Take profit: 132.90

Buy: 132.98 Take profit: 134.10

Sell: 131.36 Take profit: 130.74

Sell: 130.68 Take profit: 129.80

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GBP/USD. September 8. The results of the week. Boris Johnson may end up in jail due to unwillingness to do Parliament's will

24 hour timeframe

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Last week, the pound showed a 5-month growth record against the US dollar. From the lowest to the highest, about 400 points, or 4 cents, were passed. In the previous review, we already wrote that the Parliament decided to postpone the Brexit date to January 31, 2020. The full conclusion of MPs can be described as follows: Boris Johnson has no right to implement a "hard" Brexit until January 31, 2020 without the approval of Parliament. That is, after January 31, Johnson, if he remains in the chair of the British Prime Minister, may again push through the disordered "divorce" with the European Union. However, there is still a lot of time until January 2020, so it's now hardly worth it to engage in reasoning, which Johnson will do in 5 months.

Meanwhile, Minister for Labor and Pensions Amber Rudd announced her resignation from the Conservative Party (!!!), as well as her resignation from the Cabinet of Ministers. It is difficult to say whether this is the decision of Mrs. Rudd or the pressure of Boris Johnson, who had previously threatened members of the Conservative Party with exclusion from this and from the ranks of MPs if they refuse to support his initiatives on Brexit issues. One way or another, the next minister will leave his post. Recall that during the reign of Theresa May, more than 10 senior politicians left their posts because of disagreements with the prime minister in matters of Brexit. The story repeats itself ... Mrs. Rudd also noted that "she cannot stand by when the moderate Conservatives are expelled from the Party." I think it's clear to everyone who is exactly responsible for the expulsion... Mrs. Rudd sent a letter to Boris Johnson, in which she said that she did not believe that the prime minister's goal was to leave the EU with an agreement.

At the same time, another initiative group of MPs is preparing a lawsuit against Boris Johnson if he refuses to comply with the new law, which obliges him to ask for European Union leaders to delay Brexit. Johnson's last words on the law prohibiting the "hard" Brexit until October 31 were: "I'd rather die in a ditch than ask for a respite." Thus, it is easy to guess that Johnson does not want to postpone Brexit, and will also look for ways to circumvent this obligation. At the same time, the behavior of the odious prime minister is already easily predicted by deputies. Realizing that Johnson was ready to take any measures to avoid the delay of Brexit, the deputies began to consider the possibility of going to court if the country's government refused to comply with the new law. Johnson said a little later: "They just passed a law that obliges me to beg Brussels to postpone Brexit. I will never do that." "Boris Johnson may end up in jail if he refuses to endure Brexit," said Ken McDonald of the British Attorney's Office.

In the meantime, political passions are boiling in the UK, the pound/dollar pair completely ignores any macroeconomic statistics. Fortunately, it was a little last week in the United Kingdom. But the whole package of American data was not taken into account by traders. As for the technical picture on the higher timeframe, the pound has unexpectedly very interesting growth prospects. Firstly, a false breakdown of the previous low of the pair is clearly visible on the chart. This is a signal for growth. Secondly, the pair updated the previous high, it is also a signal to increase. Third, it overcame the critical line Kijun-sen. Fourth, the fundamental background for the pair unexpectedly changed from "bearish" to "bullish". Of course, by and large, Brexit's next delay cannot be called extra positive news for the pound and for the UK as a whole. However, this is still good news. Given the strong oversold pound (certainly justified by fundamental factors), the pair is likely to grow in September. Boris Johnson's hands are now restrained by the shackles of the newly adopted Brexit blocking law, and with a clear conscience, the Parliament is going on vacation tomorrow arranged by Boris Johnson himself.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar is ready to form an upward trend on the 24-hour timeframe. At the moment, the pair has reached the Ichimoku cloud, which is now an obstacle to the further growth of the GBP/USD pair. Thus, next week the bulls need to continue to develop their success, while they favor the fundamental background.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. The results of the week. Jerome Powell did not answer the question about the Fed's readiness to lower the rate in

24 hour timeframe

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The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday was the final chord of the week, which was rather rich in macroeconomic events. As we said in previous articles, traders ignored all reports from the European Union and the United States on Friday. Even one of the most significant NonFarm Payrolls reports with a real value much lower than the forecast did not cause traders' reaction. What is it? Reluctance of traders to change the "bearish" mood to "bullish"? The disbelief of bulls in the ability of the euro to rise in price against the dollar? The currency market's disbelief in the Fed's key interest rate cut in September, or high concerns about easing the already ultra-soft monetary policy of the European Union? In part, traders could get an answer on Friday night. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke in Zurich and touched on US monetary policy. Powell's speech began with words about "good performance in the US economy." However, Powell notes that high risks of a global recession remain, a slowdown in global economic growth, and uncertainty over trade wars and low inflation. GDP growth in 2019 is expected to reach 2% - 2.5%. Powell also touched on the slowdown in the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (recall that the ISM index this week fell to 49.1 points, indicating a decline in the industry). He said that so far the decline in business activity in production has been offset by the larger services sector and the high level of business activity in it (which is confirmed by the same ISM index for the services sector, which rose to 56.4). At the end of his speech, Powell said that he expects moderate growth in the global economy and the US economy. Thus, the head of the Fed in no way clarified the situation with a possible second consecutive easing of monetary policy at a regulator meeting on September 17-18. However, analysts expect a rate cut in September with a 90% probability. Mostly thanks to James Bullard, a member of the Fed's monetary committee, who spoke earlier on this issue. But his colleague, the head of the Boston Federal Reserve, Eric Rosengren, on the contrary, believes that the US economy is in good condition and there is no need to reduce the rate.

We believe that the probability of a rate cut in September is not 90%, but slightly less, say 70%. An important role in this matter is played by the constant pressure of US President Donald Trump on the Fed and Jerome Powell. In addition, in earlier reviews, we assumed that Trump could put pressure on other members of the monetary committee, fully aware that not only Powell decides to change or not change monetary policy. Thus, the rhetoric of James Bullard that the rate can be immediately trimmed by 0.5%, can be considered as a "deflection" under Donald Trump, who needs to reduce the rate like air.

We mentioned more than once as to why Trump would lower the rate. Firstly, competitors, the United States, China, the European Union, have an influence on their central banks and, accordingly, can artificially depreciate their national currencies in order to gain an advantage in trade relations with the United States and offset the damage from duties imposed by Trump. Secondly, for a country that eternally lives in debt, the issue of servicing this debt is an acute issue. The more expensive the dollar, the more difficult it is to service the debt. For example, Bloomberg analysts conducted a study. They suggested what would happen to the US economy if the opportunity to build up debts disconnected and America would have to live within its means. The results of the study turned out to be very disappointing, but predictable. The country's GDP per capita in this case will go into the negative zone. It is clear that the GDP indicator itself cannot be negative, since it expresses the total value of goods and services produced and rendered in the country. However, the fact that the GDP was negative in the study excellently shows how much the US economy is dependent on debt.

In addition, Trump's policy is to return the production facilities of companies that have chosen "cheaper countries" for the production of their goods to the United States. This will provide an opportunity to further develop the labor market and receive even more tax revenues. However, how to do this, if the dollar is very expensive (and constantly rising in price), it is very expensive to produce goods in the US, so these goods cost a fortune abroad. The answer is simple: the US dollar must be cheap in order to be able to produce goods in the United States, and easily sell them abroad. However, to implement this plan, not only a cheap dollar is needed, but also so that the dollar remains the world's reserve currency. In this case, the United States will be able to continue to increase the debt base, which is the basis of the well-being and financial system of this country. That is why Trump does not cease to "pick on" the Fed and claim that America's main enemy is not China but the Fed. That is why Trump needs low rates, which is almost guaranteed to cause the dollar to drop in global financial markets.

Well, the technical picture on the 24-hour timeframe has not changed much since the last review. The euro/dollar pair again adjusted to the critical line, bounced off from it again and can now resume the formation of a downward trend. The target is 1.0883. If the ECB lowers its key rate in September and announces the use of other monetary easing instruments, the euro could go down to a record 1.05 against the US currency.

Trading recommendations:

The trend for the euro/dollar pair remains downward. Bears reached the support level of 1.0967, so now you can count on a rebound and a slight increase in the pair. But in general, given the fundamental background, we believe that the pair's fall will continue in September.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com