EUR / USD h4 vs USD / JPY h4 vs EUR / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from June 25, 2019. Analysis of APLs

A comprehensive analysis of movement options of the European and Japanese currency + cross-instrument of these -> EUR / USD vs USD / JPY vs EUR / JPY from June 25, 2019.

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Euro vs US Dollar

Testing and the direction of the breakdown of coincident boundaries (1.1355 <-> 1.1390 <-> 1.1420) equilibrium zone of Minuette operating scale fork will determine the further development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD on June 25 2019. Details of working out the boundaries of these zones of equilibrium can be seen on the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1355 (intersection of ISL38.2 Minuette and ISL38.2 Minuette) -> development of the downward movement of EUR / USD can be continued to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (1.1330 <-> 1.1305 <-> 1.1285) with the prospect of reaching the support level of 1.1260 at the intersection of the initial SSL lines of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the resistance level of 1.1.1420 (intersection of ISL61.8 Minuette and ISL61.8 Minuette) -> the option of continuing the development of the upward movement of the single European currency to the final FSL (1.1525) line of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The markup of the EUR / USD movement options is shown in the animated graphics.

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US Dollar vs Japanese Yen

The movement of the USD / JPY on June 25, 2019 is due to perfecting the boundaries channel of the 1/2 Median Line (107.40 <-> 107.55 <-> 107.70) Minuette operational scale fork. More details of the movement inside this channel are shown on the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the level of resistance 107.70 (the upper boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette) together with ISL38.2 Minuette (107.80) -> development of the movement USD / JPY continues to equilibrium zone (107.80 <-> 108.00 <-> 108.25) Minuette operational scale fork, and in case of a breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (108.25), the upward movement of this currency instrument can be continued to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (108.65 <-> 109.05 <-> 109.45) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 107.40 (lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette) and the control line LTL (107.33) of the Minuette operational scale fork -> development of the USD / JPY movement can continue to the goals -> initial line SSL Minuette (107.10) <-> local minimum (107.05) <-> control line LTL Minuette (106.95) <-> warning line LWL38.2 (106.45) Minuette operating scale fork.

Markup options for the USD / JPY movement are indicated in the animated graphic ->

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Euro vs Japanese Yen

From June 25, 2019, the cross-instrument EUR / JPY will develop its movement in accordance with the working out and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (121.80 <-> 122.10 <-> 1.2240) of the Minuette operating scale fork.

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 121.80) -> the downward movement of the cross instrument can be continued to the goals -> SSL start line (121.20) of the Minuette <-> minimum (120.93 <-> 120.76).

On the other hand, the breakdown of the upper boundary of the channel of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (resistance level of 122.40) will confirm that further development of the cross-instrument movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (122.30 <-> 122.70 <-> 123.14) of the Minuette operating scale fork, and later , the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (123.14) and ISL38.2 Minuette (123.20) will be the actual development of the EUR / JPY movement within the equilibrium zone (123.20 <-> 123.95 <-> 124.65) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Marking options for the movement of the cross-instrument EUR / JPY is presented in the animated graphic ->

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The review was compiled without taking into account of the news background. The opening of the trading session of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

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What was it? (weekly review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD from 06/24/2019)

So I want to exclaim - what was it?!

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The dollar stood still for a couple of days and then rushed into the unknown distance. Yes, even with such speed that no one could come to its senses. The Federal Reserve System gave a magic kick in the ass already at the stage of announcing the composition of the team, so even before Jerome Powell's press conference it became known that one of the members of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations had voted to lower the refinancing rate. Then the team captain gave the dollar even greater acceleration, saying that a considerable number of its partners, part-time employees and subordinates, do not exclude the possibility of reducing the refinancing rate to as much as 2.0%. True, so far they do not intend to take such actions, but the situation is developing in such a way that such an opportunity should not be ruled out. So all Thursday, the dollar flew like a soccer ball sent to its own goal. As soon as it lost all the kinetic energy, Lael Brainard and Loretta Mester played the role of defenders, they almost cut the ball into their own goal. They managed to say such that the number of gray-haired people in the world clearly increased. Although they voted for the preservation of the parameters of the monetary policy pursued, but only for the reason that right now they do not see the need to lower the refinancing rate, they do not exclude such a possibility for this year. Take note, not a word about raising the refinancing rate, which appears in the previously announced plans of the Federal Reserve System. So, laughter is laughter, but in fact we are on the verge of a cardinal turn in the policy of the Federal Reserve System, and instead of gradually tightening it on the horizon, its softening looms with might and main. It is no wonder that investors sold out portraits of dead American presidents with incredible frenzy. The frequency with which representatives of the Federal Reserve make such statements is more like an attempt to please Donald Trump, who is so outraged by the dollar that he again threatened Jerome Powell with early resignation.

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Against the background of such large-scale events, no one paid attention to the meeting of the Board of the Bank of England, which continues to remain in an ostrich's pose, hiding its head in the sand. Although even if there were no harsh statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, no one would have paid attention to the inaction of the Bank of England. The Office of Mark Carney has long stated that there will be no changes in the regulator's policy until it becomes clear how Brexit will end. But events are developing in such a way that everything goes in time for the saddest end of this whole epic. Boris Johnson, who is in favor of a speedy divorce with the European Union, and even without an agreement, because the existing one does not fully suit him, since it implies certain payments from the United Kingdom, confidently won the qualifying race for the post of head of the Conservative Party. Now almost one hundred and sixty thousand party members through the mail must choose who will become their leader, Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt. Considering how far the former foreign minister has bypassed the current one, there is almost no doubt that Boris Johnson will become the new head of the Conservative Party, and considering its majority in the House of Commons, also the new prime minister. This means that Brexit will follow the worst-case scenario, without any deal and with unpredictable consequences for the economy of both the UK and the European Union. It is clear that the economy of continental Europe will experience a number of difficulties, but it is still difficult to say how it will all end for the United Kingdom. Tarot cards give an ambiguous answer - whether the Apocalypse or Armageddon.

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Naturally, enthusiastically eating popcorn while watching the Brexit series and the Federal Reserve System is somehow not conducive to the study of boring and dreary macroeconomic statistics. But there was something to see. The number of building permits increased by 0.3%, but the number of new construction projects decreased by 0.9%. Although home sales in the secondary market increased by 2.5%. Also, the total number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 43 thousand, while waiting for a decline of only 13 thousand. But at the same time, preliminary data on business activity indices showed a decrease in the production index from 50.5 to 50.1, and in the service sector from 50.9 to 50.6. As a result, the composite index of business activity fell from 50.9 to 50.7. But this is as far as the United States is concerned, and it can be seen that, in general, the data are not so positive and rather neutral. But there were enough interesting results in Europe. There is only one, the final data on inflation, which due to the revision of the previous values showed a decrease from 1.7% to 1.2%. Given that until recently, April inflation was estimated at 1.2% and it was expected that it will remain unchanged in May, the picture looked relatively good. Now everyone has seen that inflation is seriously slowing down, which means that the European Central Bank will be much more likely to look for options for easing monetary policy. True, this is the only thing that could upset investors, since the rest of the macroeconomic data from Europe were clearly positive. In particular, the growth rate of the construction industry slowed from 5.8% not to 1.9%, but to 3.9%. But what is much more interesting is that the preliminary data on business activity indices turned out to be significantly better than the American ones, since all the indicators showed an increase. The manufacturing index of business activity rose from 47.7 to 47.8, and in the service sector from 52.9 to 53.4, which gave a composite index increase from 51.8 to 52.1. But given the extremely weak data on inflation, there are clearly no reasons for the growth of the single European currency. But the British statistics more likely indicates that the pound had to go down with confidence, because not only did inflation fall from 2.1% to 2.0%, so also the growth rate of retail sales slowed down from 5.1% to 2 3%. But such an explosive mixture for all sorts of investors is the very incense, from which devils scatter through all the cracks.

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After Fed representatives sent the dollar into unthinkable distances, the market, of course, needs to take a breath and collect its thoughts. But this week, Jerome Powell is again in favor, and there is every reason to believe that he will continue to bury the portraits of the dead presidents of the United States with further hints of a speedy reduction in the refinancing rate. There will be at least one person who will rejoice over this, Donald Trump. However, in the US they expect a slight increase in sales of new homes, as well as orders for durable goods. Moreover, the final GDP data for the first quarter should confirm the fact of accelerating economic growth. Personal incomes with personal expenses can show an increase of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, which usually pleases investors. In Europe, preliminary inflation data will be published, which are expected to show its stability. As for the UK, there is still a slight lull in terms of Brexit, since the results of the election of the head of the Conservative Party will not be known anytime soon. But the final GDP data for the first quarter will be published, which will almost certainly confirm the fact of accelerating economic growth. Nevertheless, this is already taken into account by market participants, and they will increasingly reflect on the consequences for the British economy, just unregulated Brexit.

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In other words, if Jerome Powell does not add fuel to the fire again, then, due to macroeconomic statistics and the oversoldness of the dollar, the single European currency may drop to 1.1300 - 1.1325. Well, if the head of the Fed continues to frighten market participants, then we are waiting for a rise above 1.1400.

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In regards to the pound, the options are exactly the same, and either we will witness its decline to 1.2625 or see a continued growth to 1.2800 and above.

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The pound is aiming for $1.29

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The G-20 summit, which will take place this weekend and is anticipated by market participants, will be crucial for US-China relations. It should show how the parties are interested in resolving the trade conflict. So far, traders hopes to achieve at least some agreements between the United States and China support high-yielding and risky assets. The dollar at this time continues to be under pressure because of the Fed's announced plans to lower the rate this year and next.

It also became apparent that the Republicans and Democrats, who forever oppose each other, have both agreed that a weak dollar was needed for further prosperity of the United States. It doesn't matter which way this effect will be achieved - by a stream of negative statistics either by lowering the FED rate, or by Donald Trump's tweets.

While Washington clearly set a course for lowering the value of its national currency, the previously oversold British pound is trying to take advantage of the situation and at least partially restore losses. The cautious policy of the Bank of England speaks in favor of the GBP/USD pair growth.

The BOE is very restrained in assessing the prospects for global growth, but still sees the need for tighter policies if his predictions are correct. Judging by the latest reports, the UK economy is not in the best shape: retail sales have fallen by 0.5% for the second month in a row, which has already led to a decrease in the annual figure to 2.3% from 5.1%. Until the Brexit problem is solved, the central bank of England will not go for a rate increase.

As for Brexit, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt quite logically meet in the finals of the struggle for the post of Tory leader, but the latter has no chance of winning. "Without 5 minutes," prime minister - Johnson - actively speaks out on the topic of Brexit and states the need to preserve the possibility of blackmail in the matter of paying compensation for leaving the European Union. The last announced amount was more than 50 billion euros. Boris Johnson will most likely want new negotiations on the subject of "divorce" conditions, but Europe's position is tough and, according to Tusk, the United Kingdom is simply inefficiently wasting time.

However, there was some certainty regarding Brexit, it became clear to everyone that Britain will leave the EU this autumn, no matter what, and no matter who becomes the next British prime minister. Market participants perceived a new certainty rather positively. Thus, the pound may recover to $1.2920-50 in the coming weeks.

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EUR/USD: Exit above $1.14 will trigger a pullback

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Now, when the Fed and the ECB have given an open signal to the market to ease monetary policy, the question arises, who has the largest arsenal of ammunition? There is no need to look for an answer for a long time, since the European Central Bank clearly looks weaker: interest on deposits is already negative, and the effectiveness of QE is debatable. In this case, Jerome Powell and his team can safely reduce the rate several times. The derivatives market signals a 94% and 66% probability of easing policy this year by 25 bp and 50 bp A good background for EUR/USD, so why not grow?

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In order to update the June peak, euro fans needed fresh drivers, and they got them. Business activity in the eurozone services sector rose to a 7-month high, pulling the composite purchasing managers index. Yes, trade wars make their mark, the manufacturing sector remains weak, but ahead of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who can change everything. The chain of events: the end of the US-China conflict - the recovery of the Chinese economy - the growth of German exports - the strengthening of the euro is working. That's just for its implementation takes time.

It is worth noting that the growth of the euro entirely now depends on the demand for the dollar. Therefore, it is unlikely that the EUR/USD pair would be able to shoot at the data on business activity in the euro bloc. Of course, the main role here was played by the large-scale closure of long speculative positions on the US currency.

However, the fundamental factors are now emerging in favor of a gradual upward trend in EUR/USD. The Fed is ready to lower rates, the market is waiting for the end of the trade war and the improvement of macroeconomic statistics for the eurozone. Here again, not everything goes smoothly. There is an opinion that the Fed is deceiving or, more correctly, to say, keep back. In reality, there are not enough reasons to reduce the rate. If Washington agrees with China, then they will not remain at all.

Recall, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida noted that the regulator will start to operate only when necessary. FOMC spokesperson Lael Brainard said that economic growth in the country is quite strong, just in early May there was uncertainty of a political nature, which may well disappear. Then the word "patience" will reappear in the lexicon of the Fed leadership. The US, like many other countries of the world, is facing a slowdown in inflation, but the reason for this lies in an extremely soft monetary policy.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard is confident that the rate cut will accelerate inflation. Theoretically it should be so, but in real life we see a different picture. Rumors of monetary expansion contribute to a fall in inflation expectations and a slowdown in PCE.

"Bullish" forecasts for EUR/USD come true, quotes of the pair ended at multi-month highs last week. The main pair also began the new week with growth. At the same time, the euro's growth to the levels of $1.14 and $1.144 will enhance the risks of a pullback against the background of the de-escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China and the associated increase in yield of treasuries.

Consideration should also be given to increased tensions between the United States and Iran. The euro will not like it, however, like the US dollar, if we consider it together with the safe-haven yen. However, the greenback is unlikely to fall below 105, since a significant refusal of investors from dollar assets is unlikely.

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Golden Rush: the price of the yellow metal exceeded $1,400

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On Monday, June 24, the price of gold istood at a previously reached mark, exceeding $1,400 per ounce. Last Friday, the precious metal's price soared to $1,411 per ounce and is currently seeking to hold its positions.

According to analysts, the current price is the highest since September 2013. Experts believe that the rising cost of precious metals demonstrates a decrease in risk appetite against the backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions. The yellow metal is once again becoming attractive to investors as a safe-haven asset.

Previously, gold was supported by the decision of the US Federal Reserve to soften monetary policy, if necessary. The reasons for this were such factors as the growth of geopolitical uncertainty and low inflation, slowing the rise of the American economy. Following the Fed's meeting, the yellow metal's quotes rose by $13, to $1,364 for 1 troy ounce. At the end of last week, the precious metal managed to overcome the psychologically important mark of $1,400 per ounce. In this regard, a number of experts believe that gold may later become cheaper, since it has already reached the target range of $1,375– $ 1,400 for an ounce.

The yellow metal grew in price for the fifth week in a row. Experts believe that in the short term, it will continue to fluctuate in the range of $1,380 to $1,410 per ounce. A positive impulse for gold may continue in the second half of 2019, as the Fed is ready to ease monetary policy, and other leading regulators may follow its example. Experts consider the $1450 gold price per troy ounce to be the medium-term benchmark.

According to analysts, the current rise of gold prices in many currencies of the world is close to the record levels of previous years. A few months ago, the cost of precious metals peaked in countries such as Argentina, Australia, Brazil and Sweden. In a number of other countries, such as Canada, India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and Uruguay, the price of gold remains high. In Russia and Hungary, the precious metal is almost close to its maximum values. Experts do not exclude that in the near future the yellow metal will be able to break the current price record.

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GBP/USD. A family scandal lowered Johnson's rating and supported the British currency

The pound-dollar pair within the 27th figure had increased by over 200 points during the week. The British currency has moved away from the price lows of the year and is now trying to show character using the greenback's weakness. However, not only is the dollar devaluation pulling up the GBP/USD: for the first time in a long time, the pound had its own growth arguments, which appeared from a rather unexpected side. And although the general uncertainty still puts pressure on the pair, buyers are using every opportunity to prolong the period of the corrective price increase. Today, the GBP/USD pair has reached the resistance level of 1.2770 (the top line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart), but could not break through it, but the potential for further growth still remains.

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Against the background of an almost empty economic calendar, the British currency reacts to news of a political nature. Let me remind you that now in Britain there is a struggle for the post of head of the leading Conservative Party, and in fact for the post of prime minister of the country. After several rounds of voting, two candidates entered the "finals" of the political race: ex-foreign minister Boris Johnson and current foreign minister Jeremy Hunt. Throughout the pre-election period, Johnson, who is known for his tough position on Brexit, was considered the undisputed favorite of the race. He is in favor of revising the terms of the deal, but at the same time he opposes the extension of the negotiation period after October 31. In his opinion, Brexit should take place at all costs on November 1 - with or without a deal. A "hard" Brexit does not frighten Johnson, moreover - he threatened Brussels not to pay the multibillion-dollar amount of "compensation" until Europe reconsiders the terms of the agreement with London.

In other words, his coming to power does not bode well for the pound, given the position of the British regulator, who, in fact, "tied" the question of Brexit to the prospects of monetary policy. It is for this reason that the British currency has been under strong pressure for several weeks: Johnson has maintained an undeniable advantage in the political race all this time, and this fact increased the likelihood of a "chaotic" Brexit. Hunt, following several rounds of voting, lagged behind the leader of the election campaign by several dozen points and seemed to have no chance of winning. But, as it turned out, everything is possible in politics, and even more so in British politics.

According to the results of the latest opinion polls, Boris Johnson not only lost his advantage in the overall rating over his main opponent Jeremy Hunt, but is now behind him. The reason for this, oddly enough, was the personal life of Johnson, namely his quarrel with the mistress. At the end of last week, the neighbors of the couple recorded the audio of the beats and female cries that were heard from their home in London. They even called the police, but law enforcement officers only recorded the fact of a family quarrel without any offenses.

But after this incident in the UK, a rather heated debate began on whether Boris Johnson is capable of being prime minister, given his personal qualities, in particular, stress tolerance. He added fuel to the fire and his public reaction to this incident. He refused to answer the question about this situation, saying the following: "I believe that people do not want to hear about such things." After this, Johnson was even criticized by his colleagues in the Conservative Party. In particular, Tory deputy Malcolm Rifkind accused him of hiding "important information for the public," and former Foreign Minister Alan Duncan said that Johnson now has a "big question mark over his head."

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As a result, a domestic family conflict has found fatal consequences for an odious candidate: after the incident, Johnson's leadership declined among all voters and among Conservatives. The latest poll showed that 29% of all voters consider Boris Johnson to be the most optimal prime minister, while Hunt was supported by 32%. Among members of the Conservative party, Johnson's leadership also declined (from 55% to 45%), while Hunt's position increased from 28% to 34%.

In addition, according to the British edition of The Times, even if elected, Johnson can pass a vote of no confidence - if he tries to withdraw the country from the European Union without a deal on October 31. According to anonymous sources, the Labour Party initiates a Parliamentary vote on this issue nearly on the first day of Johnson's term in office. According to the publication's interlocutors, a significant part of the Conservatives will support Labour, especially if Johnson does not abandon the idea of extending the negotiation process after October 31.

On the one hand, such information reduces the likelihood of the implementation of a "hard" Brexit. On the other hand, the published information is in the nature of rumors, which are often not confirmed. Johnson's downgrade is good news for GBP/USD bulls, but even against the background of the scandal, he retains leadership among members of the Conservative Party (although the gap with Hunt has significantly decreased).

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Thus, the controversial fundamental background does not make it possible for bulls of the pair to break through the resistance level of 1.2770 and enter the 28th figure. But if Johnson's rating will continue to fall, and the dollar will still be under pressure from the US Federal Reserve's position, these price targets will be easily overcome by GBP/USD bulls.

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GBP/USD. June 24. Results of the day. The US dollar managed to win back some of the previously lost positions against the

4-hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 76p - 59p - 131p - 96p - 104p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 93p (93p).

The British pound sterling was slightly adjusted on Monday, June 24. As we remember from the EUR/USD review, there was no correction. Accordingly, this is what we talked about earlier. The situation with Brexit, a political crisis and a hazy future continues to dominate over the pound. That is why the euro can show a strengthening in the future (although its prospects are also not 100%) while the pound can resume a fall. So far, of course, it is still too early to talk about resuming the downward trend, too much negative has come from overseas in recent weeks. Nevertheless, traders are simply afraid to buy the British currency, knowing that the "hard" Brexit is not one of the possible options now, but the most likely option of a "divorce" between the EU and the UK. Firstly, because Boris Johnson is not at all afraid of the "hard" scenario. Secondly, because the European Union officially abandoned new negotiations under the terms of the exit agreement and advised the new prime minister not to waste time on false dreams. New referendum? The probability of holding it is present, especially since Opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn supports this option. But this also testifies to the fact that even before the proclamation of the new prime minister, we already have a potential split in opinions between the Conservatives and the Laborites. It is because of this that the Parliament can again "slip" at the polls. Recall that the new date Brexit is October 31.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair started the downward correction, keeping the upward trend. Thus, a rebound from the Kijun-sen line or a reversal of the MACD upwards will make it possible to buy the pound to a resistance level of 1.2822.

It will be possible to buy the US dollar if the pair has consolidated below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the downward trend may resume with the first target support level of 1.2582.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

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EUR / USD Preview of the week: Important statistics, Powell and G20 performance

Surprisingly, the euro-dollar pair did not lose its bullish momentum and continued to show growth at the opening of the last trading week of June. The US currency did not have time to play the "dovish" comments of the Fed representatives, who increased the confidence that the regulator would not stop at a one-time reduction in the interest rate. In addition, the conflict situation with Iran, as well as the ambiguous prospects of the US-China negotiations, are pushing the pair upward to the borders of the 14th figure. However, the current trading week is full of important events that either unfold a pair of 180 degrees or determine the course of the EUR/USD to the area of 1.1410-1.15520.

The Friday jerk of the pair under the curtain of the five-day trading session was due to extremely mild comments by the Fed representatives. Thus, a member of the Board of Governors, Lael Brainard, said interest rates in the future would be "at low" levels, in conditions of downward risks, including those of a political nature. According to Brainard, frustrating statistics indicate the need to mitigate further dynamics of rates. The focus of the Fed will be on inflation indicators, which recently showed "particularly weak growth."

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It is worth noting here that Brainard belongs to the so-called "dovish camp" of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, her comments should not have caused much excitement. But first, she has a permanent right to vote at the Fed, and second is her position was more or less shared by the other members of the regulator, who spoke on Friday. For example, Neil Kashkari proposed to reduce the rate by 50 basis points at a time. This idea is not new as it has rather been vigorously discussed among financial experts recently. The need for a soft monetary policy was expressed on Friday by both Mary Daley (FRB San Francisco) and Loretta Mester (FRB Cleveland). At the same time, each of them spoke about the importance of key macroeconomic reports that will add up to a general picture of a fundamental nature.

In this regard, Monday is almost empty: EUR/USD traders can pay attention only to the German indicator of the business environment from the IFO, which has been consistently declining for the past three months. If today shows growth, the euro will receive additional support, especially against the background of the positive dynamics of the PMI indices. Although, according to forecasts, the minimum decline is expected by 0.4 points.

But on Tuesday we will find out data on the growth of the consumer confidence indicator in the United States. After a dynamic two-month growth rate, the indicator can demonstrate a rather sharp decline from the level of 134 points to 132. Also, the indicator of housing sales in the primary market will be published on this day. For the first time in five months, this indicator showed a serious decline of -6.9%, hence the May figure will play an important role. On the contrary to the forecasts, if the indicator will remain in a negative area again, this will negatively affect the "well-being" of the US currency. Also on Tuesday, we will listen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He will take part in the New York Economic Forum, where he will speak about economic prospects and monetary policy.

On Wednesday, all of the attention of EUR/USD traders will be focused on the indicator of the volume of orders for durable goods in the United States. The April figure showed extremely negative dynamics, dropping into the negative area (excluding transport to the zero level). In May, experts predict a minimum growth and the overall figure should rise to 0.0% (from the previous value of -2.15%), excluding transport to 0.1%.

On Thursday, the main macroeconomic news will come from Germany and the United States. In the United States, the final data on the growth of the country's GDP for the first quarter will be published. According to analysts, the indicator will be revised and be released at the level of initial estimates. As for German inflation, here the indicator should demonstrate minimal growth. In this case, the euro will receive significant support.

The most important day of the week is Friday. On this day, the G-20 summit will begin, where a meeting of the leaders of the United States and China will take place and although the summit will last 2 days (that is, we will find out its results already on Saturday), the parties can designate prospects for further relations on the last day of the trading week. Depending on the results of the preliminary negotiations, the market will either increase or weaken anti-risk sentiment. Both the dollar and the euro are awaiting the G-20 summit. Its results will allow traders to adjust expectations regarding the prospects for the Fed's monetary policy. The head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, also focused his attention on the escalation of trade tensions, denoting the likelihood of monetary easing at the last meeting.

In the context of the EUR/USD pair, volatility will be reinforced by the release of important macroeconomic statistics. First, we find out the data on the growth of European inflation. According to the consensus forecast, the general consumer price index should remain at the April level of 1.2%, whereas core inflation may show growth and return to the 1% mark after falling to 0.8%. The main index of personal consumption expenditures will be published during the American session. He talks about the state of consumer demand in the United States and indirectly affects inflation. According to many experts, this indicator is monitored "especially carefully" by the Fed. In April, the index rose both in annual and monthly terms. But the May figures may be disappointing. Experts predict a fairly significant decline to the zero level on a monthly basis and to 1.

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In addition to macroeconomic statistics and the G20 summit, the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will be affected by the US-Iran conflict, which is still not solved. Over the weekend, the Americans carried out a cyber attack on Iran's computer systems to control the launch of missiles (after Tehran hit an American drone). According to the US military, the operation caused damage to Iran's military command and control systems but did not lead to the death of people or civilian casualties. In turn, the Iranians commented on the situation succinctly stating that "the US cyber attacks were not successful." Further escalation of this conflict will put pressure on the dollar, especially against the background of the "dovish" intentions of the Fed.

In the technical aspect, the EUR/USD pair is still on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on both the daily and weekly charts, which confirms the priority of the northern movement. If the pair on W1 overcomes the upper line of this indicator, the next resistance level will be at the bottom of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart, which corresponds to the price of 1.1440.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD pair on 24.06.2019

Focus of the market is on the Trump talks with Xi Jin Ping at the G-20 summit in Japan at the end of a new week.

The market expects the US and China to make a deal and this will end the protracted trade war launched by Trump.

On the optimism of these expectations, the markets are growing and the dollar is declining, as well as on the expectation of a Fed rate cut.

We keep purchasing from 1.1250 with possible kickbacks.

In the case of a full downward turn, sales from 1.1180 are suggested.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 24. Boris Johnson is eager to win the election

EUR / USD

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Friday, June 21, ended with an increase of 80 basis points for the EUR / USD pair. Thus, the markets received confirmation of the construction of the upward trend section, having made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the expected wave 1. Given this reason, the instrument can continue to increase within wave 3 with targets located near the 100.0% - 161.8% Fibonacci levels by the size of wave 1. The news background has turned from neutral to positive for the euro in recent times. On Friday, 2 of 3 indices of business activity in the euro area were above market expectations, and 3 of 3 indices in the US were below Forex expectations. Today, there will be very little news, respectively, the market will not focus on fundamental factors. Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make a speech and he may upset the currency markets again, as his recent statements concerned the possible easing of monetary policy and fears about America's trade wars with partners.

Purchase goals:

1.1417 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1480 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1180 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair completed the second wave of the upward trend. I recommend buying Eurocurrencies with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1417 and 1.1480, which equates to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci. The MACD signal down can mean the construction of an internal correctional wave in the composition of the upward wave 3.

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GBP/USD

The pair GBP / USD scored about 50 bp on Friday, and came out, therefore, to the highs of June 7 and 12. A successful attempt to break through these marks will indicate the readiness of the foreign exchange market to further increase and build an upward trend. The news background, in my opinion, remains neutral for the pound-dollar pair, since negative reports and data come predominantly from both the US and the UK. In America, these are weak economic reports and the dovish attitude of the Fed. In the UK, this is the same Brexit, for which there is no progress. Boris Johnson remains the main candidate for the post of prime minister of the country. If earlier this conclusion was made on the basis of his victory in the first election rounds among members of the Conservative Party in parliament. Now, the same conclusion is made on the basis of preliminary polls among local councils.

Sales targets:

1.2434 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.2359 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.2767 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument has changed and is now suggesting the construction of a new upward trend. At the same time, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the maximum of wave d, which confirms the willingness of markets to further increase, and build a correctional wave against the first impulse wave and only then buy the instrument.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on June 24. Before, buyers of the pound found the 1.2765 level difficult

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

A weak US dollar renewed the demand for the pound and pulled it to the highs of this month. The goal of the bulls is a major resistance of 1.2762, a breakthrough of which will provide good support to buyers, which will lead to a renewal of highs around 1.2800 and 1.2860, where I recommend taking profits. With a downward correction scenario, and this is more likely in the first half of the day, long positions in the pound can be viewed at a false breakdown from support 1.2723 or at a rebound from a low of 1.2687, where the lower limit of the ascending channel passes.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Pound sellers will try to keep the pair above the resistance of 1.2762, and the formation of a false breakout there will be a direct signal to open short positions against the trend based on a small downward correction to the support area of 1.2723 and 1.2687, where I recommend to take profit. However, more interesting levels for selling GBP/USD today are seen at highs of 1.2799 and 1.2858.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case the pound decreases, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.2687, while a breakthrough of the upper boundary in the area of 1.2775 will lead to the continuation of the upward trend.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 24. Traders continue to buy the euro in the expectation of lower rates in

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Traders continue to buy euros in the expectation of lower rates in the US, but they forget that the ECB may resort to such a mechanism in the near future and then everything will go in the opposite direction. Today, the task of euro buyers will be the resistance of 1.1392, consolidating above which will lead to highs of 1.1427 and 1.1459, where I recommend taking profits. However, a more optimal scenario for long positions would be a downward correction and a false breakdown in the 1.1366 area or a test of a larger low of 1.1338.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

There is no expected release of important fundamental data for today that could limit the upward potential of the euro. The formation of a false breakdown in the 1.1392 area will be the first signal to sell EUR/USD with the aim of forming a downward correction in the support area of 1.1366 and the test of a low of 1.1338, where I recommend taking profits, as the lower limit of the current ascending channel is located just below this range. When the growth scenario is above 1.1392 in the first half of the day, large resistance levels can be seen in the highs of 1.1427 and 1.1459, from where you can sell the euro immediately to rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a bullish market.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1410 will act as resistance, while the downward potential in the pair will be limited to the middle of the channel in the 1.1366 area and its lower limit in the area of 1.1315.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Burning forecast 06.24.2019 EURUSD and trading recommendation

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EURUSD ended last week with a breakthrough to the top of an important level of 1.1350 and closed above this point.

This is a strong signal for continued growth.

Fundamentally, the dollar is falling on the Fed's promise to lower the rate - if necessary - and on the expectation of progress in US-China trade relations.

In terms of technical analysis, purchases of 1.1350 or below are possible.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 24/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The PwC consulting company offers a new cryptocurrency audit function as part of the Halo data audit package. The new tool allows users to take a closer look at cryptocurrency transactions, providing independent, significant evidence of linking the private key and public address to determine the ownership of cryptocurrency and collect information about Blockchain transactions and balances.

PwC currently uses this product to audit clients who make Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin Diamond, Litecoin, Ethereum, OAX and XRP transactions. This tool is additionally offered to companies that do not have a direct relationship with PwC, helping them to implement the processes and controls they will need to obtain reports from their auditors, says the PwC press release: " It is important for companies to continue digitization. As auditors we keep up with technological changes on the market, we develop audit tools that meet the needs of emerging technologies and serve the changing and evolving requirements of our stakeholders " - said in a statement by James Chalmers, director of the global PwC audit department.

PwC works as an auditor at the Tezos Foundation and in Hong Kong as part of the Loorping Foundation project.

Technical Overview:

The BTC/USD pair might have completed the five waves up at the level of $11,338 and is about to start the corrective cycle to the downside. So far the market is locked in a narrow range located between the levels of $10,3018 - $11,338 and any breakout below the lower support level will be a signal for a larget corrective cycle to start. Otherwise, the trend on the larger timeframe is still up and there are no signs of any trend reversal.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $14,368

WR2 - $12,738

WR1 - $12,143

Weekly Pivot - $10,500

WS1 - $9,956

WS2 - $8,295

WS3 - $7,678

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larget correction is just around the corner, as all the major impulsive waves have been completed.

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Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 24/06/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

A G7 task force is being set up to investigate how central banks can regulate cryptocurrencies, such as Facebook's Libra. Concerns arose regarding the compliance of cryptocurrencies with anti-money laundering rules, consumer protection principles, and other regulatory issues. The G7 task force will be headed by Benoit Coeure, who sits on the board of the European Central Bank: "We want to combine openness to innovation with regulatory firmness. It's in everyone's interest" - said Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the head of the French central bank.

The global reaction to Libra is diverse. Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, said he saw the potential benefits and risks of the new project. Meanwhile, the president of the US Financial Services Committee urged Facebook to suspend development until an investigation was conducted.

Technical Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has made another higher high at the level of $320.84 and then suddenly reversed to the level of $291.20. This kind of aggressive and dynamic volatility is nothing new on the crypto market, so it does not mean the trend will reverse now, but there is a possibility of a top for the wave (b) of the Irregular Flat correction to be made final. However, if the market will make another higher high the count will be invalidated. The main technical support is seen at the level of $288.61.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $399.14

WR2 - $359.00

WR1 - $340.76

Weekly Pivot - $299.53

WS1 - $285.30

WS2 - $243.70

WS3 - $227.28

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 4, which is a corrective wave and after is completed, the uptrend should resume.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 24/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The GBP/USD pair is testing the key technical resistance zone located between the levels of 1.2746 - 1.2761. The momentum is strong and positive, so the breakout is very possible and the next target is seen at the level of 1.2813. Please notice the market conditions are now overbought, so a local pull-back towards the level of 1.2725 or even 1.2668 might be made before the final push through the resistance. The larget time frame trend is still down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3080

WR2 - 1.2903

WR1 - 1.2852

Weekly Pivot - 1.2673

WS1 - 1.2612

WS2 - 1.2435

WS3 - 1.2368

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections. Nevertheless, please notice that the larget time frame trend is down, so all the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the downtrend.

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on June 24, 2019

USD / JPY pair

Another yen breakdown in the second half of last week formed a double convergence with the Marlin oscillator on the daily scale chart. The target support of the trend line of the price channel at 107.02 is almost reached on the weekly timeframe. An underwater stone can lurk here as the price is quite capable of making a false dive below a trend line by 20-40 points, which will be enough to test the convergence of an oscillator in the classic version while touching the generator line and turning it upwards. In any case, the prerequisite for opening long trading positions is to move the price over the MACD line on the four-hour chart. At the moment, it is approximately at level of 107.86.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 24/06/2019:

Technical Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has made a new local high above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1347. The move higher was made on strong and positive momentum, so this might be the final breakout from the Ending Diagonal formation seen on the higher timeframe charts. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1400 and then at the level of 1.1445. Please notice the market is in the overbought conditions, so a pull-back is expected into the London open.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1662

WR2 - 1.1520

WR1 - 1.1459

Weekly Pivot - 1.1309

WS1 - 1.1258

WS2 - 1.1120

WS3 - 1.1064

Trading Recommendations:

The current move up might the beginning of a larger impulsive breakout, so only the buy orders should be opened. The best strategy for this market is to open the buy orders during the local pull-back or larger corrections.

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Control zones for AUD/USD pair on 24.06.19

At the end of last week, the strengthening of the Japanese yen resulted in going beyond the average weekly move. This makes it possible to search for favorable prices for the sale of an instrument after a corrective return. The main resistance will be 1/2 WCZ of 107.97-107.89. While the pair is trading below this zone, the probability of returning to the minimum of the last week is 70%.

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The correction zone of the 1/2 WCZ is within the range of the day average move, which makes it an ideal target for finding a pattern for sale.

For violation of the downward momentum will require the closure of today's trading above 107.97. This will lead to the formation of a new medium-term ascending model. The probability of the implementation of this pattern is 30%, which makes it auxiliary. Purchases from current grades are not profitable.

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for June 24 - 2019

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After testing a low of 135.43 GBP/JPY has been testing short-term important resistance at 136.92 multiple times indicating a weakening decline and possible bottom for wave 2. We have now seen a more substantial break above 136.92 and look for a firm break above 137.18 too. A break above this resistance will be a strong indication that wave 2 now is complete and wave 3 to above 148.87 now is developing.

Support is now seen at 136.01 which should be able to protect the downside for the break above 137.18.

R3: 137.79

R2: 137.53

R1: 137.18

Pivot: 136.85

S1: 136.47

S2: 136.16

S3: 136.01

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 136.96 with our stop placed at 135.96

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 24 - 2019

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EUR/JPY failed to move below 120.75 and instead broke above minor resistance at 121.97 indicating a low. This means that that the decline from 123.18 most likely was the c-leg of an expanded flat correction as wave ii and wave iii could now be developing. We still need a break above the 123.18 peak to confirm that the wave iii is developing but if such break is seen, we should look for a strong impulsive rally in wave iii that ultimately should take us above 127.50.

Support is now seen at 120.92.

R3: 123.75

R2: 123.18

R1: 122.45

Pivot: 121.85

S1: 121.64

S2: 120.92

S3: 120.75

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 121.98 with our stop placed at 120.85.

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Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 24,2019

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When the European market opens, some economic data such as Belgian NBB Business Climate and German Ifo Business Climate will be published. The US will not release any Economic Data today. So, amid the reports,EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1442. Strong Resistance:1.1435. Original Resistance: 1.1424. Inner Sell Area: 1.1413. Target Inner Area: 1.1386. Inner Buy Area: 1.1359. Original Support: 1.1348. Strong Support: 1.1337. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1330.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, June 24,2019

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Today, Japan and the US will not release any economic data. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:107.93. Resistance. 2:107.72. Resistance. 1:107.51.Support. 1:107.25. Support. 2:107.04.Support. 3:106.83. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD for June 24, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday, the euro strengthened its growth, overcoming not only the high on June 7, but also the Fibonacci level of 76.4% (1.1356), showing the intention to grow to the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at the price of 1.1445, which almost coincides with the high of March 20. But since we consider the past week's growth as a speculative phenomenon, and what we mentioned in previous reviews, we are wary of this, and any other "bullish" goal.

Technically, the first signal for caution is the readiness of the Marlin oscillator of the daily chart to form a divergence. Divergence can also be formed when the euro rises to 1.1445, but for this to happen, the growth should be with kickbacks.

This week the main events will be the G20 summit, where the issue of US-China trade relations with China and the EU will be resolved (June 27-28), and the EU leaders summit on the 30th, at which the choice of head of the ECB will be decided. Prior to the first news, volatility is expected to be low. And as a result of reduced volatility, the technical aspect of the euro's growth remains the strongest.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on June 24, 2019

GBP/USD

Last Friday, the British pound made its way through the resistance of the embedded line of the price channel of the daily chart and now intends to continue to grow to the MACD line on the daily. The Marlin oscillator on both graphs does not provide reversal signals. On the four-hour chart, the price is above the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD (blue). A target of 1.2840 is open.

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Control zones USDCHF 06/24/19

Last week's strong momentum made it possible for the pair to reach the monthly control zone of June. This suggests the need to close all short positions. For further work in the direction of strengthening the franc, it will be necessary to form a correctional model, since the pair has gone beyond the weekly average move. The probability of returning to this range is 90%.

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Work towards the weakening of the Swiss franc will be corrective. This suggests the need to consolidate purchases at significant levels of resistance and the search for favorable prices for selling the instrument.

An alternative decline model has a low probability, which makes sales from current levels unprofitable at a distance. Work within the bearish impulse implies finding more favorable prices for selling the instrument. The presence of the pair within the monthly control zone indicates the possibility of the appearance of a large demand. This requires searching for pattern to buy the instrument. The simplest pattern is the "false breakdown" of the nearest daily or weekly lows.

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EUR/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!

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EURUSD is approaching resistance where we might see a drop in price.

Entry: 1.1448

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss : 1.1493

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 1.1346

Why it's good: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Horizontal pullback support

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AUD/USD reversed off resistance, potential reversal!

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Price reversed off its resistance where we expect to see it drop further to its support at 0.6964.

Entry : 0.6934

Why it's good : 100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance

Stop Loss : 0.6988

Why it's good : 100% Fibonacci extension

Take Profit : 0.6934

Why it's good : 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support

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