NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 29, 2016

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Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (the depicted support) was necessary to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

In February and March, signs of bearish rejection (triple-top reversal pattern) were expressed around the price level of 0.6750 until April when a bullish breakout above 0.6750 and 0.6860 was executed.

Later on May 6, daily candlestick closure below the 0.6850 level enhanced a quick bearish movement towards 0.6750 where bullish rejection was expected to be applied. However, obvious bearish closure below 0.6750 was achieved on May 24.

On May 30, obvious bullish rejection was expressed around the price level of 0.6675 (the lower limit of the depicted channel). That's why, the recent bullish breakout is taking place above 0.6860.

As long as the NZD/USD pair kept trading above 0.6860, further bullish advancement was expected towards the price zone around 0.7200 (the upper limit of the depicted channel).

Price action should be watched around the price zone of 0.7150 - 0.7200 (the upper limit of the depicted channel) for a valid SELL entry especially after the recent signs of bearish rejection were expressed. T/P levels should be located at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6850.

On the other hand, the price zone between 0.6760 - 0.6860 constitutes a significant support zone to offer bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry if bearish pullback persists below 0.7000.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for June 29, 2016

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On May 16, a bullish pullback towards 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was expected to offer a valid signal to sell the USD/CAD pair. However, a lack of significant bearish rejection was manifested during recent consolidations.

On May 18, temporary bullish fixation above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) opened the way towards the 1.3180 level where significant bearish pressure was originated.

Bearish persistence below 1.3000-1.2970 (61.8% Fibonacci level) was needed to enhance bearish momentum in the market.

However, recent signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2650 on June 9.

The current bullish pullback towards the price level of 1.3000-1.3070 (61.8% Fibonacci level) should be considered for another SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 1.3150. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2820 and 1.2710.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.2400-1.2500 constitutes a significant support zone to be watched for BUY entries when enough bearish pressure is applied below 1.2650.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for June 29, 2016

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Since January 2016, bullish persistence above 1.4500 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market.

However, the previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted weekly supply zone (below 1.4470), which allowed further bearish decline to occur.

The prominent demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided a significant bullish rejection and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick on February 26.

Bullish fixation above 1.4670 allowed further bullish advancement initially towards 1.4950 (Weekly Supply) where significant bearish rejection was expressed.

The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (Historical bottoms in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, temporary bearish breakdown below 1.3550 is currently manifested on the depicted charts.

Note that the price zone of 1.3845-1.4040 now constitutes a recent Supply Zone to be watched for new SELL entries if the current bullish pullback extends above 1.3550.

On the other hand, bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 allows further bearish decline towards 1.3050 (the nearest bearish projection target).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 29, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, the EUR/USD bears challenged the next monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

In February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the current bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the current price levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May and June).

In the long term, the level of 0.9450 will remain a projected bearish target if the current monthly candlestick comes to close below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

On the other hand, note that a monthly candlestick closure above 1.1400 invalidates this bearish outlook on an intermediate-term basis (low probability).

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Similar to what happened in October 2015, the supply zone of 1.1410-1.1550 constituted a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair.

Later on May 18, daily persistence below the levels of 1.1400 and 1.1200 was needed to ensure enough bearish momentum towards the 1.1100 and 1.1000 levels. However, a lack of bearish pressure was manifested on June 1.

Hence, the recent bullish closure above 1.1200 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1400 where evident signs of bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were previously suggested. That's why, obvious bearish breakdown of 1.1200 took place on June 16

However, evident bullish rejection around 1.1130 (depicted uptrend line) brought the EUR/USD pair above 1.1200 again.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the zone of 1.1400 offered a valid SELL entry. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

Note that the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates.

However, the price zone of 1.1000-1.0950 (previous consolidation range) constitutes a demand zone to offer a short-term BUY entry. T/P levels to be located at 1.1110, 1.1180 and 1.1220 while S/L should be located below 1.0890.

On the other hand, bearish fixation below 1.1000 allows a quick bearish decline towards 1.0820 to occur.

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Technical analysis of EUR/GBP for June 29, 2016

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EUR/GBP is expected to trade in a higher range as bias remains bullish. The pair is posting a pullback, but stays above its support at 0.8200. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. Further upside is expected with 0.8380 and 0.8500 as the next targets.

Trading recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8380 and the second one at 0.85. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.8105 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7975. The pivot point is at 0.8200.

Resistance levels: 0.8380, 0.85, 0.8575

Support levels: 0.8105, 0.7975, 0.7915

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Gold analysis for June 29, 2016

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Since our previous analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,323.39 in a high volume. According to the daily time frame, I found a strong upward trend and no selling pressure bar. The bar with a lower volume is compared to the previous 2 bars. This is a sign that sellers got no power and that bullish momentum may continue. Watch for buying opportunities on dips. The first take profit level is set at the price of $1,358.25.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,318.00

R2: 1.319.40

R3: 1,321.35

Support levels:

S1: 1,314.00

S2: 1,312.90

S3: 1,310.80

Trading recommendations for today: Selling gold looks risky at this stage. So, watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 29, 2016

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GBP/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias as the key resistance stands at 1.3525. The pair remains under pressure below its nearest horizontal resistance at 1.3525, which maintains the strong selling pressure. Besides, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. To conclude, as long as 1.3525 holds on the upside, the intraday outlook remains negative with targets at 1.3270 and 1.3120 in extension.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 1.3270. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 1.305. The pivot point stands at 1.3525. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, and move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 1.3680 and the second one at 1.3750.

Resistance levels: 1.3680, 1.3750, 1.3825

Support levels: 1.3270, 1.3120, 1.3

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 29, 2016

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USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as bias remains bullish. On Tuesday, US stocks rebounded broadly snapping a two-day decline following the UK's vote to leave the European Union. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.6% to 17,409, the S&P 500 rose 1.8% to 2,036, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.1% to 4,691. Energy, financial, and technology shares were top gainers as investors went bargain hunting.

European stocks also turned positive, with the Stoxx Europe 600 climbing 2.6%.

As markets stabilized, safe-haven assets halted their recent rally. The benchmark US 10-year treasury yield edged up to 1.463% from 1.461% Monday, and gold fell 0.9% to $1,312 an ounce. On the other hand, Nymex crude oil surged 3.3% to $47.85 a barrel.

The US dollar lost its upward momentum as investors jumped into riskier assets. The British pound, which suffered a combined 11.2% sell-off in the prior two sessions, rebounded 0.9% to 1.3340 against the greenback. At the same time, EUR/USD gained 0.4% to 1.1065 (daily high at 1.1110), and USD/JPY was up 0.7% to 102.74. As a result, the ICE Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 96.245.

Meanwhile, USD/CHF managed to hold its 200-day moving average by adding 0.4% to close at 0.9820.

Commodity currencies regained strength, with USD/CAD falling 0.4% to 1.3021, AUD/USD rebounding 0.9% to 0.7387 and NZD/USD rising 0.7% to 0.7044. The pair finally broke above the key resistance at 101.85 yesterday turning the intraday outlook bullish. It rose up to 102.84 before entering a consolidation. Currently, it is seeking support at the 50-period (30-minute chart) moving average. In fact, the pair is still riding on a trend line drawn from June 27. As long as the level at 101.85 holds as the key support and the pair finishes the consolidation with a positive tone, a re-visit to the first upside target at 103.30 (level of over-lapping support and resistance seen on June 24) is expected.

Recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 103.30 and the second one at 104.25. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 101.40 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 100.80. The pivot point is at 101.85.

Resistance levels: 103.30, 104.25, 105.00

Support levels: 101.40, 100.80, 100.00

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2016

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USD/CHF is expected to extend its upside movement. The pair stands above its nearest support at 0.9720 and is expected to post a new rise. Meanwhile, both the rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages are playing support roles. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50 and lacks downward momentum. Hence, as long as 0.9720 is not broken, further upside is expected with the next horizontal resistance at 0.9840 and 0.9900 in extension.

Trading recommendation:

USD/CHF is expected to trade with bullish bias above 0.9760. The pair remains on the upside. A support base at 0.9760 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out at the current stage, its extent should be very limited before a new bounce. Hence, as long as 0.9760 is not broken, further upside is expected with the next horizontal resistance at 0.9840 and 0.9900 in extension.

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9900, 0.9945

Support levels: 0.9720, 0.9660, 0.9585

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 29, 2016

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GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias as the key resistance is seen at 139.50. The pair again failed to break above the key resistance at 139.50. In other words it has not filled the bearish gap generated at the open of Monday's session. At the same time the intraday relative strength index is around the neutrality level of 50 and shows a lack of upward momentum for the pair. Therefore the intraday outlook remains bearish and the pair should return to 135 and 133.30 on the downside.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 135.00. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 133.20. The pivot point stands at 139.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 142.00 and the second one, at 144.15.

Resistance levels: 142, 144.15, 147.50

Support levels: 135, 133.30, 131.90

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2016

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NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair stands above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages and is continuing its rebound. And the relative strength index stays above 50. Further bounce is expected with 0.7150 and 0.72 as targets. However, if the pair turns down and breaks below 0.7055, it would open the way to further drop toward 0.7015 and 0.6980 in extension.

Recommendation:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7150 and the second one at 0.7200. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7015 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.6980. The pivot point is at 0.7055.

Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.72, 0.7245

Support levels: 0.7015, 0.6980, 0.6930

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EUR/NZD analysis for June 29, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.5567 in a high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a broken upward trendline, which is a sign of selling continuation. According to the daily time frame, I found that support became resistance at the level of 1.5840.The trend is downward. Watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks. The first take profit level is set at the price of 1.5450.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.5750

R2: 1.5790

R3: 1.5854

Support levels:

S1: 1.5635

S2: 1.5600

S3: 1.5545

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities on the pullbacks.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2016

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Overview:

  • Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7051. The NZD/USD pair has broken resistance at the level of 0.7051, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 0.7051. The strong support is seen at the level of 0.6972 because it represents the weekly pviot point. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Consequently, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 0.7051. Buy above the minor support of 0.7051 with a target at 0.7135 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci). Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.7051 with the first target at 0.7135. If the trend breaks the resistance level of 0.7135 , the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.7174. On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (0.7174), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.6972.

Comment:

  • Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 0.6972.
  • Daily pivot is found at the point 0.7098.
  • If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: NZD is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2016

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Overview:

  • As expected the USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9769. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.9769 (this level of 0.6557 double bottom) to the top around 0.9801. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9854 followed by 0.9908, while weekly support 1 is seen at 0.9742. Today, the USD/CHF pair is faced a minor resistance at the level of 0.9801. So, the pair is likely to try to break it in order to continue its bullish. Furthermore, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). As a result, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above 0.9769, for that it will be good to buy at 1.0075 with the first target of 0.9965. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9854. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9808. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9854 or 0.9808, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9808.
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EUR/JPY Technical Analysis for June 29, 2016

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EURJPY pair has inched higher from yesterday and is trading at 113.38 level at this moment, but it still looks to be confined within sideways movement. According to the wave structure, after the huge drop last week from 122.00 to 109.00 levels; a sideways movement was already expected and it might continue for a few more sessions. It is hence recommended to trade keeping short-term goals in sight and book profits from long positions taken yesterday. Please note that a push through 115.70 and subsequently 117.00 cannot be ruled out yet. Immediate support is seen at 111.40 level, while resistance is at 115.70 level respectively. Bears should be back in control from 115.70 levels going forward.

Trading recommendations:

Book profits on long positions taken yesterday and remain flat for now.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 29/06/2016

Global macro analysis for 29/06/2016:

The Crude Oil Inventories data are scheduled for release today at 02:30pm GMT and market participants expect the US stockpiles to drain even more than the last time. The expected figures are still negative: -2500k vs. -918k prior, so it means the inventories are now being drained for another week in the row. Nevertheless, it is worth to mention, that the primary driver of the oil market is probably Brexit-related volatility at the moment, that is spreading around other markets. The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for 20 November in Vienna.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture in 4H time frame after the British vote is done. Bears have managed to push the prices down to the level of 45.81, making this level a double bottom technical pattern. Nevertheless, if bulls are not strong enough to push the prices above 55, 100, and 200 moving averages and then towards the level of 50.55, then we might witness a lower low in the sequence and a possible temporary trend change.

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GBP/CHF Technical Analysis for June 29, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair has pulled back from last week's lows and is seen to be trading at 1.3114 levels at this moment. The pair should be heading higher at least towards 1.3460 level before reversing lower again. Please note that 1.3450/60 levels is also the fibonacci 0.382 resistance, of the drop between 1.4500 through 1.2850 levels recently and a bearish reaction can be expected. According to the wave structure as well, the pair is expected to print yet another low (after reversing from 1.3460 levels) and complete 5 waves. It is hence recommended to remain long for a short term through 1.3460 level with risk at 1.2800 at least. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3300 level on smaller time frames, while support is at 1.2850 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long now; stop at 1.2800, targeting 1.3460.

Good luck!

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Global macro overview for 29/06/2016

Global macro analysis for 29/06/2016:

The final reading of US Gross Domestic Product was revised upwards in the first quarter. Final GDP for the first quarter posted a gain of 1.1%, which was above the estimate of 1.0%. Moreover, this reading was stronger than the Preliminary GDP reading of 0.8%. Although the upward revision was a good news, the revised GDP report marked the weakest gain in a year. The US economy might find it difficult to increase the GDP over the summer period ( 2nd quarter). In conclusion, the FED will not have the good enough data to jutify another rate hike this year.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. After Brexit, the low at the level of 1.0911 still provides the support for bulls and it hasn't been violated yet. The market has been trading inside a quite tight congestion area between the levels of 1.0970 - 1.1097 and so far there is no clear evidence for any down trend resumption yet. Nevertheless, any bullish rally should be capped by the technical resistance at the level of 1.1180.

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Silver Technical Analysis for June 29, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading higher at $18.20 levels at this moment, looking to push towards $18.50 levels (major resistance on the weekly chart), before giving in to bears. The wave structure reveals that Silver might have topped out at $18.30 level or should produce a top at $18.50 level and produce a meaningful correction lower. Please note that the downside potential remains up to $15.40/50 levels, which is also fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between $13.60 through $18.30 levels earlier. A break below $17.00 level would instill further confidence towards lower levels. It is hence recommended to remain flat and wait for the right opportunity to initiate short positions again. Immediate resistance is seen at $18.30/50 levels, while support is at $17.50 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Technical Analysis for June 29, 2016.

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold continues its sideways movement for now, and is seen trading at $1,220.00/21.00 levels at the moment. The yellow metal should be looking to rally one last time and hit fresh highs right above $1,358.00 level before turning lower. The wave structure indicates that the metal could be into its 4th wave, within the final 5th wave rally as depicted on daily chart view here. It this count holds true, upside remains limited and the metal should produce a meaningful retracement lower before resuming its up move. On the flip side if the metal finds support around $1,290.00/1,300.00 levels and bounces, it could continue pushing higher. It is hence recommended to remain flat for now until further clarification. Immediate resistance is seen at $1358.00 level, while support is at $1,300.00 level respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain flat for now. Look to sell at higher levels on confirmation.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 29, 2016

General overview for 29/06/2016:

Currently, the market is developing the internal corrective cycle in wave (ii), and sub-waves a and b are now completed. There is one more wave down needed to terminate the corrective cycle and resume the uptrend. The most important level is intraday support at 1.2858, and any violation of the 1.2677 level will invalidate the black bullish impulsive count.

Support/Resistance:

1.3097 - Intraday Resistance

1.2960 - Weekly Pivot

1.2900 - Wave iv Low

1.2858 - Intraday Support

1.2800 - Wave i Top | Invalidation Level |

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders from the last week might be kept open as long as the level of 1.2800 is not clearly violated. New buy orders should be added between the levels of 1.2900 - 1.3097.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for June 29, 2016

General overview for 28/06/2016:

The intraday golden trend line that provides a dynamic support for the price has been violated, and now it's being tested from below. According to the Elliott Wave Theory, the price is still trying to complete wave (Z) of the overall corrective structure in wave B before the uptrend eventually resumes. The most important level for bulls is the technical resistance at the level of 115.48 as any breakout above this level opens the road towards the wave (X) last top. Currently, the pair is trading below the weekly pivot at the level of 114.13, and more downside is expected as wave (Z) hasn't been completed yet.

Support/Resistance:

109.55 - Brexit Low

111.37 - Intraday Support

113.84 - Intraday Resistance

114.13 - Weekly Pivot

115.48 - Technical Resistance

118.71 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders from the last week might be kept open as long as the level of 1.15.48 is not clearly violated. New sell orders should be added between the levels of 113.22 - 114.13.

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Technical analysis of USDX for June 29, 2016

The Dollar index continues to trade sideways in a pennant formation. The price is expected to break to the upside as the boundaries of the pennant contract. Above 96.50 we have a confirmed breakout.

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Red lines - pennant formation

The Dollar index continues to trade above the Kumo while it moves mainly sideways digesting the spike of the referendum result. Support is at 95.80 and next at 95. Resistance is at 96.50 and next at 96.75 where the high of the spike is found.

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The weekly candle remains above the kijun-sen and inside the Ichimoku cloud. A new high above 96.75 will confirm the bullish trend we are in and will probably push the index towards 99.50-99.75. Intermediate resistance is found at 97.70 where the upper cloud boundary is found.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of Gold for June 29, 2016

After testing support at $1,300-$1,305, gold is bouncing upwards towards resistance of $1,330. The price has broken slightly above the triangle pattern, so we would like to see a break above $1,325 to confirm the triangle breakout.

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Gold has also retraced 50% of the rise after the referendum in the UK, and this complies with all necessary conditions for the resumption of the uptrend. Moreover, the price remains above the Kumo and is making higher highs and higher lows from yesterday's dip to $1.305.

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Today I chose to post the monthly chart of gold. The monthly price action remains below the Kumo but above both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Moreover, these two indicators are about to cross and give a bullish signal. However, a cross below the Kumo is not as strong as a sign that it was above the Kumo, so bulls will have to be very cautious of the nearby monthly resistance at $1,400.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 29 - 2016

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a little more correction closer to 1.5895 and maybe even closer to 1.6005 before the next impulsive decline takes over for a drop to 1.4490.

Only a direct break below minor support at 1.5484 will indicate that the correction in wave 2 has completed prematurely and wave 3 lower is already unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

We have placed a sell order at 1.5890 with stop at 1.6035.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 29 - 2016

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Wave summary:

No change in view here. We continue to look for a decline to 107.87 in wave iii, which should be followed by a flat shallow correction in wave iv before the final decline towards 106.03 in wave v. This should finally complete the long-term corrective decline from 149.56 and set the stage for a new impulsive rally.

In the short term, a break below 113.01 will indicate the next decline to 109.50 and then a shallow correction before a move lower to 107.87 to complete wave iii.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 113.58 was hit, but we will sell a break below 113.01 with stop placed at 113.95, and take profit will be placed at 108.05.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for June 29, 2016

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as the Spanish Flash CPI y/y, German Prelim CPI m/m, and GfK German Consumer Climate. The US will release economic data too such as Bank Stress Test Results, Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and the Core PCE Price Index m/m. So amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1130.

Strong Resistance: 1.1124.

Original Resistance: 1.1113.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1102.

Target Inner Area: 1.1076.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1050.

Original Support: 1.1039.

Strong Support: 1.1028.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1022.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for June 29, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y, and the US will release some economic data such as Bank Stress Test Results, Crude Oil Inventories, Pending Home Sales m/m, Personal Income m/m, Personal Spending m/m, and the Core PCE Price Index m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 102.94.

Resistance. 2: 102.74.

Resistance. 1: 102.54.

Support. 1: 102.28.

Support. 2: 102.08.

Support. 3: 101.88.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 29, 2016

EUR/USD: This market is bearish – there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, and the Williams' % Range period 20 is not too far from the oversold region. Long trades are not yet recommended here unless the price goes upwards by about 200 pips.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF is in a bullish mode, having broken upwards last week. The price is now above the support level at 0.9800, and bulls are still willing to push the market further upwards. Therefore, the resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900 are the next targets for bulls.

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GBP/USD: The Cable is trying to make some bullish effort when things are still bearish in the market. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the 4-hour chart (in conjunction with the major bearish trend on daily and weekly charts), and continuous selling pressure remains a possibility. There is a need for a bullish movement of about 500 pips to the upside, before long trades on the Cable can become logical.

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USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument merely went flat on Tuesday, in the context of a downtrend. A breakout must happen before the end of this week, which would enable the price to reach the demand levels at 101.50 and 101.00; since there is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart.

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EUR/JPY: Following the gap-down that happened at the beginning of this week, this cross has gone upwards by 220 pips. A movement of additional 300 pips to the upside would signal a bullish bias in the short term (though the long-term bias is bearish because the EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the RSI period 14 is below the level 50). By the time the price has moved upwards by another 300 pips, the RSI period 14 would have gone above the level 50.

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Daily analysis of USDX for June 29, 2016

The index is still alive in a bullish bias, and the support zone of 95.89 remains in place. Overall, the USDX could be looking to break the resistance level around the 96.60, where the bulls could gain momentum towards the 97.19 level as the next interest area for possible sellers. The 200 SMA is slightly bullish.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 96.60 / 97.19

H1 chart's support levels: 95.89 / 95.20

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 96.60, take profit is at 97.19, and stop loss is at 96.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/USD for June 29, 2016

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD has been trading quite slowly in terms of a range, as it remains trapped between the 1.3380 and 1.3148 levels, but the big swings are still ongoing. The overall structure is still bearish, as the 200 SMA is pointing to the downside, and a breakout above the 1.3380 level will open the doors to test the 1.3653 in coming days. The MACD indicator is overbought.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3380 / 1.3653

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3148 / 1.2874

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.3148, take profit is at 1.2874 and stop loss is at 1.3418.

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Daily analysis of USD/JPY for June 28, 2016

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Overview

Positive attempts of the USDJPY pair stopped yesterday at 102.45 making the price bounce lower and close the daily candlestick below the 102.00 barrier. This supports the chances for resuming the overall bearish trend, which targets begin at a break of 100.70 levels, confirming the extension of the bearish correctional wave to 96.76 on the medium-term basis. Therefore, we still expect the bearish trend for the upcoming period supported by the EMA50. We remind you that holding below 103.80 represents an important condition for the continuation of the suggested negative scenario. The expected trading range for today is between the 100.00 support and the 103.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for June 28, 2016

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Overview

The GBPJPY price repeated forming bearish waves yesterday increasing the pressure on 133.00 levels that form an initial barrier against the main bearish bias. The continuation of the negative pressure, which comes from the main indicators, increases the possibility of surpassing the current barrier to target 130.00 levels, reaching the extended support at 127.80. Note that the stability of the 133.00 barrier might force the price to retest 142.65 levels as it forms the bearish channel's resistance shown on the image above. The expected trading range for today is between 137.40 and 130.00 levels.

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Daily analysis of Gold for June 28, 2016

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Overview

The gold price shows some slight bearish bias now approaching from retesting the support base formed above the 1,303.58 level, accompanied by stochastic, which enters the oversold levels to provide positive motive that we waited to push the price to resume its main bullish track. Therefore, our bullish trend expectations will remain valid and active for today supported by the EMA50. We are waiting for a breach of the 1,331.00 level to confirm further movement to 1,400.00 levels. We remind you that holding above the 1,303.58 level is important for the price to achieve the suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between the 1,300.00 support and the 1,360.00 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for June 28, 2016

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Overview

The sideways range dominates. The silver price continues fluctuating around 17.75 levels. Stochastic gradually heads towards the oversold areas to support the chances of resuming the bullish trend in the upcoming sessions. Therefore, we still expect the bullish trend on the intraday and short-term bases, which gets continuous support by the EMA50. Positive targets begin by breaching the 18.00 barrier to open the way to 18.63. Holding above 17.00 levels represents the key condition to achieve the awaited targets.

The expected trading range for today is between the 17.50 support and the 18.63 resistance.

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