EUR/USD: focus on the euro area locomotive – Germany

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The EUR/USD pair is still trading in a narrow price range in anticipation of the release of statistics for the eurozone, which may indicate the state of the economy of the currency bloc.

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It should be noted that for half a year, the EUR/USD pair has been in the range of 1.12-1.16. According to JP Morgan, the volatility of quotations fell to the lowest levels since mid-2014.

According to experts, the reasons for the "sleepy" state of the major currencies should be sought in the passive position of the leading central banks, as well as in the gradual clarification of the situation with the US and China trade disputes.

It is assumed that at least until the end of this year, the Fed will keep the interest rate at 2.5%, and the ECB will not begin to normalize monetary policy.

"I think that the target range of the federal funds rate will not change until the autumn of 2020. This will improve inflation forecasts and ensure that it reaches the level of 2% or slightly higher," – said the President of the FRB of Chicago Charles Evans.

According to Reuters, some ECB members doubt that economic growth in the eurozone will recover in the second half of the year. This increases the likelihood that the first interest rate hike by the ECB, which is expected next year, will be delayed even further.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported that the United States does not intend to waive previously imposed duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese-made products to America, even if a trade agreement is concluded. At the same time, Washington would like the People's Republic of China to change the structure of goods subject to tariffs by $50 billion of goods. Such a state of affairs would allow the head of the White House, Donald Trump, to declare his victory in the trade war with China before the 2020 presidential election.

Along with trade conflicts, Germany remains the focus of investor attention. It is known that the fish rots from the head, and the problems of the German economy can echo throughout the eurozone.

According to the monthly report of the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), the index of economic sentiment in Germany in April increased by 3.1 points against minus 3.6 points, noted in March. Analysts had expected the indicator to grow to 0.8 points. The indicator returned to the positive zone for the first time since March last year.

"The improvement in the economic sentiment indicator in Germany is primarily due to the hope that the global economy will not develop as bad as previously expected. The postponement of Brexit also contributed to improved expectations," said ZEW President Achim Wambach.

The fact that economic sentiment in Germany has been positive over the past 13 months suggests that the Eurozone's largest economy is gaining momentum again after nearly reaching recession at the end of last year.

"After a long series of revisions in the direction of reducing forecasts for economic growth in Germany, perhaps it's time for the first revision in the direction of growth, albeit slight," – says specialist ING Carsten Brzeski.

"It may turn out that the gloomiest forecasts for the growth of the European economy in the first quarter will have to be revised," said Angel Talavera, lead economist for the eurozone at Oxford Economics.

Thus, if the Bundesbank's hopes for a gradual recovery in Germany's GDP are confirmed, the EU's faith in concluding a trade agreement with the US will grow, and statistics for the eurozone improve, the bulls of EUR/USD will have an excellent reason to go to the next storm of resistance at 1.132-1.1325.

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EURUSD: Euro buyers are preparing a new upward trend but it's not that simple

The European currency managed to recover its positions after another attempt by sellers to resume the downward trend in the trading instrument. Good data on the ZEW index, which suggests a possible recovery of the German economy and the Eurozone in the 2nd quarter of this year, supported the demand for risky assets in the morning.

According to the report, the prospects for the German economy grew in April of this year, despite a slight deterioration in the assessment of the current conditions.

The report of the ZEW research Institute indicates that the index of economic expectations of ZEW in April 2019 rose to 3.1 points from a negative value of -3.6 in March this year. However, let me remind you that the average value of the index is 22 points. Economists had forecast the index to rise to 1.5 points in April.

A similar index for the eurozone in April of this year was 4.5 points against the March value of -2.5 points. Economists had forecast an increase in the index in April to 1.5 points.

ZEW noted that the improvement of sentiment is directly related to the hope for more positive growth and development of the situation in the global economy. The index was supported by a recent Brexit deferment of six months.

However, we should not forget that other more important indicators, such as reports on orders and industrial production, still indicate the weakness of the German economy.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the formation of the upper boundary of the new downward channel continues to be seen on the chart, therefore, it is rather problematic to talk about the further growth of the euro. Only a confident consolidation above the resistance of 1.1315 will return an upward impulse to risky assets, which will lead to a test of new weekly highs around 1.1360 and 1.1390. The downward movement in euros, which can be formed at the beginning of this week, will be restrained by the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1255.

The British pound has completely ignored today's report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, which was slightly higher than economists' forecasts than expected. According to the data, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the UK increased by 28,000 in March of this year, while economists had expected growth of only 17,000. In February, the same indicator showed an increase of 26,000.

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The average earnings in the UK for the period from December to February 2019 increased by 3.4%, which fully coincided with the forecast of economists. The overall unemployment rate from December to February remained unchanged at 3.9%.

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Major currencies are stuck in a narrow range in anticipation of important data

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Until important European and Chinese data is published, major currencies will continue to stagnate, trading in narrow ranges. The expected reports will become an important benchmark for the state of the global economy. In recent weeks, market volatility has dropped to multi-year lows. The activity has noticeably decreased, although optimism about trade negotiations between the US and China and strong economic data from China seem to be luring investors out of shelters towards more risky currencies in search of higher returns. For example, the yen is close to the lows of 2019 against the dollar. The dollar is growing relative to the basket of major currencies, but investors are still cautiously watching signs of stabilization in the global economy. The American remains a high-yielding asset, given the difference in interest rates compared with the average G10, close to the maximum for two decades. For low-yield major currencies, it is difficult to go against such a significant difference at this stage.

The market was not ready for the statement of the Reserve Bank of Australia that lowering interest rates would be quite "appropriate" if inflation remains low and the unemployment rate rises. Perhaps this will happen this year. The Australian dollar lost 0.4 percent, dropping to $0.7144 after the publication of the minutes of meetings.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GOLD. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for April 16

EUR/USD

The direction of the intersessional trend of the euro fits into the bear wave algorithm of March 20. This section forms the correction of the first part of the upward wave of a larger scale, therefore the nature of price fluctuations is flat. The middle part (B) is completed.

Forecast:

The nature of the price movement may be similar to yesterday's day. Before the turn, you need to count on a short-term price increase, possibly with a puncture of the upper boundary of the resistance zone.

Recommendations:

The potential for euro price growth has been exhausted, so purchases are very risky. Prior to the emergence of clear reversal signals, traders are not recommended to take action to enter the pair's market.

Resistance zone:

- 1.1320 / 1.1350

Support zone:

- 1.1260 / 1.1230

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GBP/USD

The price fluctuations of the pound in the last 3 weeks form a horizontal pennant, forming a correction in the bearish wave of March 13. The structure of the bullish movement seems to be finished. The price is at the bottom of the powerful zone of a potential reversal.

Forecast:

On the chart, all the conditions for completing the current flat and returning to the downward motion vector are fulfilled. It's probably a matter of days. Before the reversal, you can expect the price to rebound to the lower limit of the resistance zone.

Recommendations:

In the area of calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the signals of your vehicle for the sale of a pair. The support zone will limit the daily volatility of the instrument.

Resistance zone:

- 1.3120 / 1.3150

Support zone:

- 1.3000 / 1.2970

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GOLD

Starting from March 3, the price quotations of gold form a flat figure on the chart that most resembles a "standard plane". There is a high probability of truncation and the formation of a "pennant". The wave was fully formed the first part (A + B). Since April 4, the wave zigzag of the final part (C) has been developing.

Forecast:

The decline has reached the estimated end zone, but there are no signals of the rate change on the chart. There is a possibility of breaking the lower limit of the support zone.

Recommendations:

Sales have exhausted their potential, so the next day will be irrelevant. It is not recommended to enter the market until the confirmation signals of the exchange rate appear. The main attention should be paid to the signals of buying the instrument.

Resistance zone:

- 1305.0 / 1310.0

Support zone:

- 1285.0 / 1280.0

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Explanations for the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

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EUR/USD: a false move down and waiting for future releases

The intermediate resistance level of 1.1320 turned out to be too tough for the bulls of the EUR/USD pair, at least, the buyers could not overcome this target impulsively. After Friday's growth, the pair got stuck in the flat, reacting to minor fundamental factors and market rumors. This morning, the EUR/USD bears intercepted the initiative and tried to return the price to the area of the 12th figure. They almost succeeded, though only for a short while: at the start of the American session, the pair turned 180 degrees and returned to the previously occupied positions in the area of 1.1310.

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This unsuccessful attempt of the southern movement is explained by weak arguments from bears. Traders reflexively responded to an unconfirmed insider about the mood among members of the ECB. So, according to American journalists, some members of the European regulator do not share the opinion of their colleagues about the recovery of the eurozone economy in the second half of this year. In their opinion, the economic forecasts of the Central Bank are too optimistic, since the slowdown in China's key indicators and the ongoing trade conflicts will continue to have a negative impact on the growth dynamics of Europe. They also questioned the accuracy of the forecast models that are used by the regulator – in their opinion, this model gives a distorted picture and does not fully take into account the revised macroeconomic indicators.

Traders were concerned about this insider action: first, the split in the ECB is a negative signal a priori, and secondly, on the basis of the above forecast model, the members of the regulator calculate the approximate timing of tightening monetary policy. Today, the market expects to see the first rate increase in the first half of 2020 (the ECB is still limited to the wording "the rate will be maintained at least until the end of this year"). If the regulator suddenly revises its forecasts and/or the formula for calculating forecasts, then the approximate date of the rate increase may be postponed to a later date.

Such prospects (albeit hypothetical) put pressure on a pair EUR/USD. But just a few hours later, the pair recovered: the market did not perceive the sounded signals as a threat. Firstly, even insider sources emphasized that such views are held by a "significant minority" of ECB members. Secondly, all decisions taken at the last meetings of the regulator were taken unanimously, which indicates the solidity (at least in external manifestation) of the opinions of members of the Board of Governors of the Central Bank. Thirdly, we should not forget about the recent speech by Mario Draghi, who rather optimistically assessed the prospects of the European economy. Speaking this weekend, the head of the ECB said that negative factors "gradually weaken their influence," so, in the second half of the year, the key economic indicators can again demonstrate growth.

The bearish EUR/USD pair fell today and for another reason: business sentiment indices from the ZEW institute in Germany and throughout the eurozone were released in the "green zone". Let me remind you that the German indicator in March showed the strongest growth over the last year, although the indicator remained in the negative area. But traders still paid attention to the dynamics of its growth – and today this dynamics has been confirmed. For the first time since March 2018, the index exceeded zero and reached 3.1 points, significantly exceeding the expectations of experts (who predicted an increase to 0.9 points).

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In addition, the increase in the index in the eurozone as a whole also exceeded expectations, updating the 11-month maximum. Coming out of the negative area, the indicator reached 4.5 points against 1.2 forecast points. It is worth noting here that PMI data in the manufacturing sector will be published on Thursday, and according to preliminary forecasts, these indicators will also show positive dynamics.

In other words, on the one hand, traders did not attach importance to disturbing rumors, but on the other hand, they reacted to the block of secondary macroeconomic statistics. As a result, the pair remained virtually in place, while the bears needed to lower the price below the support level of 1.1280 (where the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the Tenkan-sen line).

Now all the attention of traders will be focused on tomorrow's releases. First of all, we are talking about data on the growth of China's GDP: we will know the preliminary figures for the first quarter of this year. According to general estimates, the Chinese economy will again show signs of a slowdown: the volume of real GDP should be 6.3% (6.4% in the fourth quarter), and GDP growth from the beginning of the year to the reporting quarter should be 6.3% (6.6% - in the fourth quarter). If the Chinese are surprised by the growth of the economy, the risk appetite will increase again in the market, exerting strong pressure on the US currency.

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Also tomorrow you should pay attention to the publication of data on inflation in the eurozone (the final estimate for March). Let me remind you that the March figures were disappointing: the consumer price index dropped to 1.4%, while the core index fell to 0.8%. Both indicators were in the "red zone", not reaching the forecast levels. According to general forecasts, the final assessment should coincide with the preliminary one. But if the figures are revised upwards (especially for core inflation), the pair EUR/USD will receive a reason for its further growth.

From the point of view of technology, the situation has not changed: the bulls of the pair need to keep the level of 1.1280, the bears, respectively, go lower. To confirm the northern movement, buyers need to overcome the resistance level of 1.1370 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud, which coincides with the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1).

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GBP/USD: plan for the American session on April 16. The pound remains in the wide side channel

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The data that came out today on the unemployment rate in the UK was completely ignored by traders, even despite the small increase in the number of applications for benefits. The formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3118 will be the first signal to sales, and if the pound rises above 1.3118, you can sell on a rebound from the new weekly high in the area of 1.3160. The main goal of the bears will be to decrease to the lower border of the channel to the area of 1.3052 and consolidate under it, which will lead to an update of the minimum in the area of 1.3021, where I recommend fixing the profit.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The data that came out today on the unemployment rate in the UK were completely ignored by traders, even despite the small increase in the number of applications for benefits. The formation of a false breakout in the area of 1.3118 will be the first signal to sales, and if the pound rises above 1.3118, you can sell on a rebound from the new weekly high in the area of 1.3160. The main goal of the bears will be to decrease to the lower border of the channel to the area of 1.3052 and consolidate under it, which will lead to an update of the minimum in the area of 1.3021, where I recommend fixing the profit.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the scenario of the pound decline, the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3075 will act as support, the breakthrough of which will lead to a sharp decline in the pound. The breakthrough of the upper boundary in the area of 1.3107 may increase the demand for GBP/USD.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR./USD analysis for April 16, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1279. Anyway, we expect further upside movement on the EUR.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that there is rejection of the key short-term support level at the price of 1.1287, which is sign that selling looks risky and that buyers decided to load their buying positions. In our opinion, there is potential end of the downward correction (abc), which is another sign to watch for buying opportunities. Important resistance level is seen at the price of 1.1320. As long as the support at the price of 1.1287 is holding, we are bullish on the EUR.

Trading recommendation: We are long on EUR from 1.1300 and target at the price of 1.1320. Protective stop is placed at 1.1277.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD plan for the US session on April 16. Euro returned to position after a report on the business sentiment

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

A good report on the business sentiment of the eurozone allowed euro buyers to return to the level of 1.1293 and keep the pair in a side channel with the probability of continuing the uptrend. However, it is best to consider long positions after breaking through and consolidating above the resistance of 1.1315, which I paid attention to in my morning review. A breakthrough of this range will allow the formation of a new upward trend with the update of the highs at 1.1336 and 1.1358, where I recommend fixing the profit. When the retracement takes place in the support area of 1.1293, it is best to consider EUR/USD purchases from this range provided that a false breakdown is formed. Meanwhile, larger long positions are best opened to rebound from 1.1265 and 1.1232 lows.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

In the first half of the day, the bears formed a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.1315, which led to the downward movement of the euro. However, it failed to consolidate below the support of 1.1294, which maintains uncertainty about the future direction. Only a repeated test of 1.1294 can lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD to test the area of support at 1.1265 and 1.1232, where I recommend taking profits. With the EUR/USD growth scenario above 1.1315, short positions can be considered to rebound from the highs of both 1.1336 and 1.1358.

More in the video forecast for April 16

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 medium moving ones, which indicates the side character of the market with a slight bearish advantage.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a euro decline in the afternoon, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1293, against it will lead to a larger wave of euro decline.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: Euro buyers need to work hard to maintain the uptrend

Yesterday, the euro expectedly fell against the US dollar against the background of the lack of important statistics, but buyers of risky assets still have a chance to resume the upward trend.

In the afternoon, a report was published on manufacturers in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which led to a slight strengthening of the US dollar by accelerating business growth.

According to the Fed-New York, the manufacturing index, which reflects the conditions for doing business, rose to 10.1 points in April of this year, while economists had expected the index in April to be 5.3 points. More than 33% of respondents reported improved business conditions. The index of new orders reached 7.5 points, while the employment index dropped to 11.9 points.

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Yesterday's speeches of the Fed representatives did not have much impact on the US dollar.

Fed spokesman Charles Evans said that the rate hike is still possible if the economy meets expectations, but a weaker state may even require a weakening of the current monetary policy. Evans also expects inflation to reach 2% in the medium term. In his opinion, the economy will slow down to 1.75% -2% this year, since the downside economic risks outweigh the upside.

The speech of the President of the Fed-Boston Rosengren was also ignored by the market. He again repeated that he was open to the Fed to change the target range for inflation, which plays a certain role in the ceiling. In his opinion, in good economic periods, you can change the target range above 2%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the chart continues to show the formation of the upper limit of the new downward channel, so it is very problematic to talk about the further growth of the euro. Only a confident consolidation above the resistance of 1.1315 will return the upward momentum to risky assets, which will lead to a test of new weekly highs around 1.1360 and 1.1390. The downward movement in euros, which may be formed at the beginning of this week, will be restrained by the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1255.

The Canadian dollar collapsed against the US dollar and continues to remain under pressure after the publication of yesterday's survey of the Bank of Canada, which revised its forecasts and views on the economic situation.

The report indicates that the mood in the business community has deteriorated slightly, as well as expectations regarding sales. There has been a slowdown in demand for companies associated with the housing market and energy sector, and trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions remain a risk to the economy, putting pressure on exporters' prospects.

The Bank of Canada also noted that inflation expectations have decreased, but remain in the range of 1% -3% in the medium term.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 16, 2019

USD/JPY has been trading sideways at the price of 111.98. Major resistance at the price of 112.14 is holding and buying USD/JPY at this stage looks risky.

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According to the Daily time-frame, we found that buyers didn't have power to break key resistance at the price of 112.15, which is sign that downward correction might me possible. Yesterday, the day closed neutral (doji candle), which is confirmation of indecision near the important resistance. We do expect potential test of the Friday's low at the price of 111.60 before any further upside.

Trading recommendation: We are short USD from 111.98 with tight protective stop at 112.15. Target is set at the price of 111.60. The position will be only active till end of the day.

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Bitcoin analysis for April 16, 2019

BTC has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $4.936. We are still expecting more downside in the next period

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BTC did fake breakout of the major resistance at the price of $5.330, which did set the done for the future decline. Most recently, there is the breakout of the bearish flag pattern (red line channel), which is sign that sellers are ready for the next downward movement. The key support is seen at the price of $4.640 (first pullback low after the climatic action in the background). In case that you see the breakout of the $4.640, next downward target will be set at $4.121.

Trading recommendation: We are still short on the BTC from $5.130 with the targets at $4.660 and $4.121. Protective stop is placed at $5.460.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2019

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Overview: The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3087. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.3087 to a top around 1.3201 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.3140. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3206 followed by 1.3268 , while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3087 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3087 and 1.3268; so we expect a range of 181 pips in coming days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3206, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3268) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3087 with the first target at 1.3206 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3268. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3268 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3087, a further decline to 1.2976 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 16th. The trading system "Regression Channels". Reports from the UK give hope for the end of the flat

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 47.7373

The currency pair GBP/USD tightly stuck between the levels of 1.3123 and 1.3062. Volatility is lowered, the markets clearly do not know which way to go next. Fortunately, today in the UK, reports of applications for unemployment benefits, unemployment rates and changes in average wages will be published. These reports are quite important, so they can quite strongly affect the movement of the currency pair today. Thus, today there is a hope that the pair will manage to escape from the frank flat. There are no important messages on the Brexit topic right now. The only thing that can be noted is the mood of the Theresa May government on the "hard" version of Brexit. That is, Theresa May admits the high probability of just such an option of leaving the EU and is preparing for it. In principle, this is quite logical, given the fact that the Parliament rejected the agreement proposed by the Prime Minister three times. From a technical point of view, now everything is simple – frank flat. Thus, the best option is to wait until it is completed, since it is quite difficult to trade within a narrow price range, and the potential profit on any transactions is small. What can bring the pound out of the flat? Today's news from the UK (although the chances of this are not much) or the most important new information on Brexit (which is not expected in the near future). Thus, it is quite possible that the flat will persist for a long time.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3031

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3092

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3153

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is located right next to the MA, and now the market is still calm. Thus, formally now are relevant long positions with targets at 1.3123 and 1.3153, but it is recommended to retrace these goals very carefully and cautiously or not at all.

Sell positions will formally become relevant after the pair is fixed below the moving average line with targets at 1.3031 and 1.3000, however, in this case, it is recommended to trade very carefully or to remain out of the market until the end of the flat.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. April 16th. The trading system "Regression Channels". The European Union is ready to sit down at the negotiating

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 74.4434

On Tuesday, April 16, the currency pair EUR/USD began a new round of corrective movement against the upward trend, as it could not overcome the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1322. The blue bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator indicates local downward movement. Turning the indicator upwards will mean another third attempt to overcome the indicated level. However, as we have said in previous reviews, the growth potential of the European currency is small. From today's macroeconomic reports, only industrial production for March in the USA will be interesting for the pair. A 0.2% increase is expected, and any value above this figure will be in favor of the American currency. The main topic for the EUR/USD pair is now considered to be an emerging trade war between the US and the EU, which, however, does not have a strong influence on the preferences of traders. However, it may begin to render in the future. We did not have time yesterday to write that in the event of an escalation of the trade conflict, it will clearly not be in favor of the European Union, and that Brussels will most likely try to sit at the negotiating table as soon as possible, as today there is information that the EU Ministers of Agriculture want to negotiate with Washington in order to avoid a trade war. Thus, in the near future, we can expect negotiations between the United States and the alliance.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1261

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1322

R2 - 1.1353

R3 - 1.1383

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is once again being adjusted. Thus, it is now recommended to consider long positions with targets at 1.1322 and 1.1353, but after the completion of the current round of correction, which will be indicated by the Heiken Ashi indicator turning to the top.

It is recommended to open a sell position no earlier than fixing a pair below the moving with targets at 1.1261 and 1.1230. But the potential downward movement will still be limited to the level of 1.1200.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 16, 2019

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6765. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6765 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. But, major support is seen at the level of 0.6735. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6735 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6842. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6842, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.6911 in order to test the double top.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Plan for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 04/16/2019

In general, the market stood still rooted to the spot yesterday as expected. This is not surprising since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty and even politicians did not say anything about Brexit or negotiations between the United States and China on a trade agreement. In short, it will be longing without end.

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However, do not be discouraged because we are waiting for solid fun today and it all starts with data on the UK labor market. In fact, almost all indicators should remain unchanged. In particular, we are talking about the level of unemployment and the rate of growth of average wages excluding bonuses but wages with premiums can fairly please investors since their growth rates should accelerate from 3.4% to 3.5%. This means that employees are ready to recycle and give all the best. Consequently, the profit of companies is growing, and some of this profit falls a little to the workers themselves but most importantly, the profit of investors grows much stronger than the income of employees. In general, everything we love. Well, the number of applications for unemployment benefits can be reduced from 27 thousand to 20 thousand. Thus, the pound has every reason to be optimistic and its growth potential is quite good since at the end of last week he did not support the growth of the single European currency and he needs to catch up. But in the United States, the growth rate of industrial production can slow down from 3.6% to 3.2% and this is almost a fifth of the country's economy, which, we agree that it does not add optimism. Although, it has already become great again.

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The euro/dollar currency field reaching a value of 1.1323 slowed down and forms accumulation at 1.1300/1.1323, where the upper bound of Fibo 38.2 and the lower level of 1.1300 are situated. It is likely that the current amplitude will be maintained with movement to the upper boundary.

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The pound/dollar currency pair continues an ambiguous fluctuation in the range of 1.3050/1.3120, which reduces the volatility several times. It is likely to assume the preservation of the existing amplitude oscillation with a return to the point of 1.3120, where we have repeatedly felt a resistance.

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 16)

Over the previous trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed an extremely low volatility of 22 points. As a result of which, to say the least, the quotation stood in one place. From the point of view of technical analysis, we had a cluster of 1.1300 / 1.1325, where the upper limit is Fibo 38.2, and the lower limit represents the level of 1.1300. The news background continues to flounder in the uncertainty of the "divorce" process of Brexit. The head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker in Strasbourg, gave a number of comments on this process. Juncker believes that Brexit will not be the end of the EU. I want to remind you that when the Eurogroup was created, Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom refused to participate in this union. It was attended only by those who were interested, and this principle worked perfectly. At the same time, the head of the EC added: "I want to emphasize that the European Union does not intend to point the UK at the door. The European Union will not force Brexit and is ready to wait. The decision must come from London, the sooner he accepts it, the better. "

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we have data on industrial production in the United States, where they expect a decline from 3.6% to 3.2%.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that a break through was made for the previously steady accumulation of 1.1300 / 1.1325, where a pulsed candle with a fixation phase has been drawn through that very cluster. It is likely to assume that if the inertial move continues, we can still be pulled aside to 1.1270 (Fibo 23.6).

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short-term, intraday perspective, a downward interest has appeared against the background of the surge and earlier stagnation. The medium-term perspective maintains an upward interest.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 16, was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 33 points. If the inertial move still remains on the market, then the volatility may grow a little more, but it still remains within the daily average.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Investors are waiting for the recession to start and resumption of decline for AUD/USD and USD/JPY pairs are expected

The published minutes of the last RBA meeting fully confirmed our expectations that the bank would not think about raising interest rates in the near future.

The content of the published protocol clearly indicates that the regulator sees benefits from lower interest rates than from high ones. The bank argued the likely decrease in interest rates in August and in November of this year.

It seems to us that this behavior of the Reserve Bank of Australia is explained not only by domestic economic reasons but also by an increase in expectations that the Fed may have to begin the process of lowering the cost of borrowing. In this case, the Australian regulator would not like to be late for the actions of the Federal Reserve but rather to anticipate them in order to put pressure on the national currency rate and to promote a better position of exports from the country on the world market.

"Fears" of the RBA confirmed today in their comments as FRS President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston E. Rosengren made it clear that he is a supporter of low interest rates in the current economic conditions in the US. Although he acknowledged that the country's economy is still in "pretty good condition" and that he does not expect recession in the foreseeable future, his words clearly indicate that such fears really exist in the US Central Bank, just for the time being they do not want to publicly speak.

It seems that investors can no longer believe in the positive attitude of the Fed representatives regarding the American economy. They are frightened by the continuation of the process of "flattening" the short and long government bonds of the US Treasury, as well as the apparent drop in volumes on the unrestrainedly growing US stock market. Looking at the past, one can say that the current situation is largely preceded by those that preceded the crises of the late twentieth and early twenty-first century. These sentiments are reflected in all segments of the global financial market.

While many market players do not want to notice this, the existing dynamics in the markets in general and especially for currencies, where volatility has fallen to the lowest levels due to uncertainty, clearly indicates that large market players continue to avoid making serious transactions. This is clearly manifested in the Forex market in the lateral dynamics of currency pairs, where the dollar is present.

Assessing the likely prospects, we still believe that the lateral dynamics in the near foreseeable future in the currency markets will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair continues to decline in the wake of the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting on monetary policy. A decline below 0.7145 will lead to a fall in prices to 0.7125 with the prospect of a further drop to 0.7100.

Our forecast for the USD/JPY pair remains the same. We believe that its decline below the level of 111.90 may lead to a fall in prices first to 111.55 and then to 111.30.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 16. Wave counting is stable, trade war does not affect the tool.

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, April 15, trading ended for EUR / USD with a decrease of several base points, and the market activity was zero. However, the absence of an impressive decline still retains excellent chances for a continued enhancement of the instrument within wave c. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci mark, thus, stopped the pair only for a while. There are no prerequisites for completing the promotion now. The news background for the couple is not even neutral now, it is completely absent. Recently, fears have arisen for a trade war that may arise between America and the European Union, but the parties have not yet taken any concrete steps in this direction, exchanging only mutual threats to impose fees of approximately the same amount.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1448 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1476 - 76.4% on the highest Fibonacci grid.

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair presumably continues to build a wave. Thus, the trading strategy remains the same - I recommend buying a pair with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1448 and 1.1476, which corresponds to 100.0% and 76.4% Fibonacci. There are no reasons for sales. A downward rollback is possible, as the pair made two unsuccessful attempts to break through the 50.0% Fibonacci level.

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Bitcoin. Bitcoin buyers did not hold the support level

Bitcoin exchange rate fell again in an acceptable range for it, as buyers failed to stay above the support of 5150. However, the chance for continued growth in cryptocurrency remains quite high. Yesterday, an interesting study by Global Custodian was published, in which after studying more than 150 funds operating in the United States, it became known that 94% of them are studying the possibility of investing in cryptocurrencies. Good news for Bitcoin buyers.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

The task of Bitcoin buyers is to once again return and consolidate above the resistance of 5150, which may lead to the resumption of the upward trend with the update of the maximum around 5360 and 5680, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a further decline in the Bitcoin rate, to open long positions, an interesting level will be the area of 4900, but it is best to look at larger purchases on the rebound from the minimum of 4630.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

The bears waited yesterday for a signal to open short positions, which was a breakdown of support at 5150. While trading is conducted below this range, we can expect a decrease in cryptocurrency and a test of 4900 and 4630 minimum, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of the resumption of growth, you can look at the meek positions during the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 5150 or a rebound from a large resistance of 5360.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 16. The euro currency is preparing to fall

4h

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As seen on a 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair made a return to the retracement level of 50.0% (1.1313) and a turn in favor of the American currency. As a result, on April 16, the quotations began to fall again in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.1281). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator on April 16. Fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% with a break of the last peak of the bearish divergence can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US dollar and we can expect some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 38.2% (1.134)4.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair closed above the retracement level of 127.2% (1.1285). However, the emerging bearish divergence allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of decline in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.0941) with at least a stop near the previous two lows. Two unsuccessful attempts to close above the Fibo level of 50.0% on the 4-hour chart increase the chances of a fall beginning.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair with a target at 1.1344 if the pair consolidates above the Fibo level of 50.0% (and updates the last peak of the divergence). The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1313.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with targets at 1.1281 and 1.1241 as the pair completed consolidation below the level of 50.0%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1313.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of GBP/USD divergences for April 16. Pound sterling remains in the side corridor

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair completed two more closures above the retracement level of 76.4% and then below it. As a result, traders can again expect some fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2969). However, as the practice of the last days' shows, the pair is unlikely to fall below the levels of 1.3030 and 1.3040. The hourly chart now clearly shows the sideways movement of the pair. Although the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator plays in favor of the US dollar, it does not greatly increase the probability of a fall in the current conditions.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair completed another increase to the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3122) and a turn in favor of the American currency without a halt. Under the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3087), it was not possible to close, so there is a possibility of another return of quotations to the retracement level of 50.0% (1.3122). Fixing the quotes below the Fibo level of 38.2% will slightly increase the pair's chances of falling to the retracement level of 23.6% (1.3046). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator on April 16.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 27, 2019, and March 29, 2019.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with a target at 1.3122 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 38.2% as the pair completed closing above the level of 1.3087 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3046 and a stop loss order above the level of 38.2% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3087 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of USD/CHF for April 16, 2019

USD has been the dominant currency in the pair recently after the price bounced off the 0.9900 support area, having reversed the impulsive bearish trend. Though the Fed officials have recently adopted the wait-and-see approach and the trade conflict between the US and China is still unsolved, the latest US reports showed the economy's resilience. Thus, the dollar may extend gains but with certain volatility along the way.

The SNB compares the price stability with a rise in the national consumer price index of less than 2% on a yearly basis. The objective of price stability is also breached by deflation with a protracted decline in the price growth. The SNB assumes that the inflation objective cannot be achieved unless it is measured accurately. The CPI calculation methods are not fully adjusted for seasonal changes. As a result, the measured inflation tends to overdo the actual inflation to a small degree.

The consumer price index increased to 0.5% from 0.4% in March 2019 compared with the previous month's reading of 102.2 points, boosted by rising prices for international package holidays and air transport. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 2.4% while the youth unemployment decreased. Still, the formidable challenge for the SNB is to achieve the target inflation rate.

At its latest meeting the SNB reduced the inflation target for the current year to 0.3% from 0.5% in the previous quarter. For 2020, the central bank of Switzerland expects the inflation to be at 0.6% compared to 1.0% last quarter. For 2021, it predicts an inflation rate of 1.2%, wherein the assumption of the three-month Libor would be at –0.75%. If the SNB somehow fails to achieve the targeted inflation rate, there is a possibility for USDCHF to rise further. Moreover, the Swiss central bank also noted that the economic indicators were currently pointing to moderately positive momentum which makes them expect the GDP to expand by around 1.5. If the GDP and inflation rate targets are achieved, the USDCHF pair would gather bearish momentum.

Recently, Switzerland released the PPI report which showed an increase to 0.3% while the index was expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. The positive economic report did not quite help CHF to gain strong counter momentum but managed to slow down the extensive impulsive growth that has arisen earlier.

On the other hand, the US Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased by 0.4% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising by 0.2% in February. Over the last 12 months, the index advanced by 1.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The latest FOMC policy meeting minutes showed that the Fed officials discussed an option of ending the reduction in the Federal Reserve's securities holdings at the end of September 2019. The Fed also expected the GDP to bounce back solidly in the second quarter of 2019 with a strong labor market. Moreover, there was further discussion about the interest rate hikes depending on the economic conditions. The unemployment rate over the last 2 months was 3.8% in February while the declining production rate rebounded in February. The manufacturing output also decreased over 2 months.

Today the US Capacity Utilization Rate report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 79.2% from the previous value of 78.2%. Furthermore, the industrial production is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%. At the same time, analysts predict that the NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 63 from the previous figure of 62. The US retail sales report will be published on Thursday, which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous negative value of -0.2%. Ahead of it, USD has more chances to gain further momentum over CHF if the economic expectations are met in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently rejecting off the 1.0050 area with a daily close which is expected to lead to certain corrections and volatility along the way before it starts to push higher with the target towards 1.0130 resistance area in the coming days. The bullish trend is expected to continue as no bearish divergence is spotted and the price is residing above the dynamic support level.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for April 16. Wave pattern can be very confusing.

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Wave counting analysis:

n April 15, the GBP / USD pair gained about 15 bp. Now, the instrument is trading near the top and forming a tapering triangle line. A successful attempt to break through this line under normal conditions would show the pair's readiness to further increase, but not now. The transfer of Brexit for at least six months became known which made the markets seem to have lost interest in the pair. Based on the current wave marking, the quotes continue to decline. However, I recommend considering this option as the main one if the tool makes a successful attempt to break through the level of 0.0% Fibonacci. Breaking the top of the line of the triangle will give only minimal support to the pound. Thus, with tool purchases, I recommend not to rush.

Purchase goals:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Wave pattern still involves the construction of a downward trend. Markets, as before, cannot withdraw a pair from a triangle, therefore, trading takes place with a minimum amplitude. Accordingly, I recommend expecting the pair to exit the triangle. Unfortunately, even in the event of a breakthrough of the upper line of the triangle, a small amplitude of trades may remain. A stronger signal is needed for the breakthrough of the Fibonacci at 0.0% level.

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 16)

For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed an extremely low volatility of 50 points, as a result of which having a low amplitude fluctuation. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the compression of the quotation, where there is a distinct resistance in the form of the value of 1.3120, which appeared during the initial corrective movement. On the other hand, the information and news background cautiously analyzes everything that is happening in the "world" of Brexit, where business and investors in general, are trying to understand where they are going. This is actually one of the reasons for the sharp decline in volatility. In turn, Prime Minister Theresa May said that London will continue to prepare for the possible withdrawal of the country from the EU without an agreement with the European Union.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the level of wages in the UK, where growth is expected from 3.4% to 3.5 % (including premiums). In the afternoon, industrial production data in the United States will be published, where they expect a decline from 3.6% to 3.2%.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation continues to move in the amplitude of 1.3050 / 1.3120, where the quotation is already nearing the lower border. It is likely to assume that the movement within the given framework will continue, where in the event of a weakening dollar against the background of the news flow, we can return to the upper limit of the range again.

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Positions for buying and selling at the current time are built on the principle of working in a range, and the main movements are considered by traders only in the event of a breakdown of a particular border.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that there is a downward interest in the market in the short, intraday and medium term. It should be understood that due to the cyclical movement in the range, indicators on the smaller TFs may vary.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(April 16 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 28 points. In the case of continued fluctuations in the existing range, the volatility will remain low. Increased volatility can be expected in the event of a breakdown of one or another range boundaries, coupled with the information background.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 16, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target 1.3133 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, technical analysis demonstrates an upward movement. The first upper target 1.3133 is the upper fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for April 16, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1325 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1325 is the upper fractal.

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BITCOIN to bounce again off $5,000? April 16, 2019

Bitcoin has been quite unpredictable recently due to high volatility and indecision in the market sentiment. The price has been rejected off the $5,000 area, pushing back up higher with strong momentum but could not sustain it pretty well.

Recently, head of Fundstrat Global Advisor Mr. Thomas Lee stated that Bitcoin's steady rally confirms global appetite for riskier assets that is indeed a positive sign, but there are notable risks along the way. While the overall market of cryptocurrencies has gained momentum, Bitcoin the flagship is still indecisive without any definite momentum.

When the price broke above $5,000 earlier, definite pressure was displayed. However, due to higher volatility and price corrections, the price double bottomed at $5,000. It is currently climbing higher under impulsive pressure. The dynamic levels 20 EMA and Tenkan line are currently having a cross over. At the same time, MACD moving averages are also showing an upward indicating crossover as well. The price is likely to move higher towards $5,250 again in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 4,800-80, 5,000

RESISTANCE: 5,250, 5,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5cb5682a448e8.png

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 16. The pound remains in the wide side channel

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound buyers' task is to break through and consolidate above the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.3118, which will resume an uptrend and update new highs in the areas of 1.3160 and 1.3195, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the lower boundary of the channel in the area of 1.3052 and 1.3021.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The data, which will be released today regarding unemployment in the UK, could help the pound in getting out of the side channel. The formation of a false breakdown around 1.3118 will be the first signal to sell, and if the pound rises above 1.3118, you can sell for a rebound from the new weekly high in the area of 1.3160. The main goal of the bears will be to fall to the lower border of the channel in the area of 1.3052 and consolidate below it, which will lead to an update of the low in the area of 1.3021, where I recommend taking profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3115 may increase the demand for the pound, while a surge of the lower border of the indicator near 1.3081 will cause the pair to sharply decline.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis for Gold for April 16, 2019

Gold price is challenging important support levels here.There are many chances of a bounce from current levels towards $1,300-$1,305. Recapturing the $1,300 level is very important for bulls. The longer price stays below $1,300 the more vulnerable it is for a break below $1,280 and a move towards $1,250-60.

analytics5cb57965b890c.png

Green rectangle - major support area

Black line - resistance trend line

Blue line - RSI support

Red rectangle - target if support fails to hold

Gold price has support at $1,280 and resistance at $1,300-$1,305. Breaking above resistance at $1,300 will open the way for a move to new highs. Failure to hold above $1,280 will open the way for a move towards $1,250-60 minimum but with $1,225-15 the most probable target area. The RSI so far holds above the blue support trend line. This makes me believe that it is very probable to see another bounce towards $1,300. Breaking below the blue support trend line we should expect heavy selling to come and push price to $1,250-60.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 16. Demand for the euro may return, but under some conditions

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday, euro buyers managed to stay above the support level of 1.1293, which is a good signal. Today, a quick return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1315 is required in the first half of the day, which coincides with the upper limit of the new downward channel, which will be a good signal to open long positions in euros in order to update the highs of 1.1336 and 1.1358, where I recommend to lock in profits. The data on the eurozone economy that will be released today, can support the euro. In case the EUR/USD drops in the first half of the day to the area of 1.1293, I recommend that you open long positions from there only if a false breakdown is formed. Otherwise, buy only on a rebound from 1.1265.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

A weak report on sentiment in the eurozone may lead to the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1315, which will be the first signal to open short positions in order to re-lower and test the level of 1.1293. A break of 1.1293 will lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD to the lows in the area of 1.1265 and 1.1232, where I recommend taking profits. In case the EUR/USD increases above 1.1315, it's best to open short positions to rebound from a high of both 1.1336 and 1.1358.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1312 will lead to a resumption of the uptrend. Breaking the lower boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1294 will increase the pressure on the pair.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Technical analysis for EURUSD for April 16, 2019

EURUSD is trading in a short-term bullish channel but has reached important resistance area of 1.13-1.1330. Moving sideways or slightly lower is a good sign for bulls. Bulls do not want to see a rejection and a break below and out of the bullish short-term channel.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Red lines - bearish channel

Black line - major trend line resistance

Green rectangle -major support level

EURUSD has reached the upper channel boundary at 1.1330 and has stopped its rise. This is important resistance by the medium-term bearish channel. Price is making higher highs and higher lows inside the blue channel. Staying inside the blue channel is important for bulls. A pull back towards 1.1280 is justified so that overbought short-term conditions are relieved and price could form another higher low to gain more strength for the next leg higher. Breaking above 1.1330 will open the way for a move towards the next major resistance at 1.14-1.1450. Medium-term trend remains bearish as long as price is below that resistance area.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on April 16, 2019

GBP / USD pair

The British Pound quote for the sixth session is between the MACD lines and the balance on the daily chart. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly above the MACD and balance lines. The Oscillator marlin moved to the border with its readings completely neutral. On the daily scale of the price, the marlin went to the border of the growth zone while maintaining the horizontal trend from it that makes a downward reversal possible. Thus, the longer the price trades in the range results to a higher probability of its fall. We are waiting for the price decline below the lower limit of the range at 1.3030-1.3135 with a further movement to 1.2840, which was the embedded line of the price channel on the daily timeframe.

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