Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 30th

Forecast for July 30 :

Analytical overview of currency pairs on the H1 scale:

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The key levels for the euro / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.1869, 1.1824, 1.1798, 1.1727, 1.1695, 1.1668, 1.1636 and 1.1614. Here, the price has framed a small local structure for the high of July 28. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.1798 - 1.1824. The breakdown of the last level will allow us to count on a movement to a potential target - 1.1869. We expect a downward pullback from this level.

The level of 1.1727 is a key support for the top and its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 1.1695. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on a movement to 1.1668. Price consolidation near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1666 will lead to a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 1.1636. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1636 - 1.1614. We expect the formation of pronounced initial conditions for a downward cycle to the level of 1.1636.

The main trend is an upward structure from July 10, local potential from July 28

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1798 Take profit: 1.1824

Buy: 1.1826 Take profit: 1.1869

Sell: 1.1727 Take profit: 1.1695

Sell: 1.1666 Take profit: 1.1636

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The key levels for the pound / dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3056, 1.2994, 1.2962, 1.2916, 1.2878 and 1.2823. Here, we continue to follow the July 14 upward structure. A short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.2962 - 1.2994. We consider the level of 1.3056 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2916 - 1.2878. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.2823. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward cycle from July 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 1.2996 Take profit: 1.3055

Sell: 1.2915 Take profit: 1.2878

Sell: 1.2876 Take profit: 1.2825

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The key levels for the dollar / franc pair on the H1 scale are: 0.9260, 0.9229, 0.9187, 0.9128 and 0.9089. Here, we are following the development of the downward cycle from July 16. At the moment, the price is near the limit values. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9128 - 0.9089; hence, a key upward reversal is expected.

The level of 0.9187 is a key support for the downward structure and its breakdown will lead to the development of an upward correction. In this case, the target is 0.9229. We consider the level of 0.9260 as a potential value for the top. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation and the formation of initial conditions for an upward cycle.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 16

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9188 Take profit: 0.9228

Buy : 0.9230 Take profit: 0.9260

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 0.9126 Take profit: 0.9090

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The key levels for the dollar / yen pair on the scale are : 106.04, 105.81, 105.52, 105.33, 104.98, 104.72 and 104.32. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure from July 20. A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 104.98 - 104.72. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a movement to a potential level. Here, the target is 104.32. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 105.33 - 105.52. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 105.81. The range of 105.81 - 106.04 is the key support for the bottom. We expect the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the top up to the level of 106.04.

The main trend is the downward structure from July 20

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 105.33 Take profit: 105.50

Buy : 105.54 Take profit: 105.81

Sell: 104.97 Take profit: 104.73

Sell: 104.71 Take profit: 104.34

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The key levels for the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair on the H1 scale are: 1.3468, 1.3437, 1.3395, 1.3358, 1.3303, 1.3274 and 1.3211. Here, we are following the downward structure from July 14th. At the moment we expect movement to the level of 1.3303. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3303 - 1.3274. We consider the level of 1.3211 as a potential value for the bottom; upon reaching this level, we expect an upward pullback.

A consolidated movement is possible in the range of 1.3358 - 1.3395. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3437. The range of 1.3437 - 1.3468 is the key support for the downward structure. We expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to form up to the level of 1.3468.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3397 Take profit: 1.3435

Buy : 1.3438 Take profit: 1.3467

Sell: 1.3303 Take profit: 1.3275

Sell: 1.3272 Take profit: 1.3213

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The key levels for the Australian dollar / dollar pair on the H1 scale are : 0.7268, 0.7236, 0.7213, 0.7182, 0.7128, 0.7104 and 0.7064. Here, the price formed a local upward structure from July 24. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7182. In this case, the target is 0.7213. Price consolidation is in the range of 0.7213 - 0.7236. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7268. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7128 - 0.7104. The breakdown of the last level will favor the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 0.7064.

The main trend is the local upward structure of July 24

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7182 Take profit: 0.7213

Buy: 0.7214 Take profit: 0.7233

Sell : 0.7128 Take profit : 0.7105

Sell: 0.7102 Take profit: 0.7065

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The key levels for the euro / yen pair on the H1 scale are: 124.66, 124.26, 123.67, 123.35, 122.70, 122.26, 121.66, 121.28 and 120.75. Here, we are following the downward structure from July 22nd. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 122.70. In this case, the target is 122.26. There is consolidation near this level. The breakdown of the level of 122.24 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 121.66. There is consolidation in the range of 121.66 - 121.28. We consider the level of 120.75 as a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching which, we expect an upward pullback.

A short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 123.94 - 124.26. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the formation of an upward structure. Here, the target is 124.66. We expect the formation of pronounced initial conditions for the top before this level.

The main trend is the descending structure from July 22

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 123.95 Take profit: 124.25

Buy: 124.27 Take profit: 124.65

Sell: 122.70 Take profit: 122.28

Sell: 122.24 Take profit: 121.66

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The key levels for the pound / yen pair on the H1 scale are : 138.41, 137.73, 137.25, 136.55, 136.04, 135.48, 135.18 and 134.75. Here, we are following the July 17 upward structure. A consolidated upward movement is expected in the range 136.04 - 136.55. The breakdown of the last level should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. In this case, the target is the range of 137.25, in the 137.25 - 137.73. There is a short-term upward movement. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 138.41. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a downward pullback.

A short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 135.48 - 135.18. The breakdown of the last level will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 134.75. This is a key support level for the top.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 17

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 136.60 Take profit: 137.25

Buy: 137.27 Take profit: 137.70

Sell: 135.96 Take profit: 135.50

Sell: 135.48 Take profit: 135.18

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Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on July 30

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on July 30

EUR / USD

Analysis of transactions

The movement of the quote towards the level of 1.1745 led to a good buy signal to the euro, which traders worked on during the American session, and gave a profit of about 50 points.

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The two-day FOMC meeting, which was very important for the US dollar, did not lead to significant changes in the market yesterday, considering that no changes were made to the interest rates, which remains at its same level of 0.25%. Thus, in the near future, a rise in the US dollar is expected, followed by a drop on the euro in the trading chart.

  • Open buy transactions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1786 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.1825. The reports on unemployment rates for Germany and the eurozone, which will be published today, may lead to another wave of increase in the euro, as long as the data turn out to be positive. Take profit when the quote reaches the level of 1.1825.
  • Open sell transactions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1750 (red line on the chart), targeting a drop to the level of 1.1703. Take profit at the level of 1.1703.

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Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on July 30

GBP / USD

Analysis of transactions

The buy signal for the pound, which occurred after the quote reached the level of 1.2938, gave about 40 pips of profit.

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Important reports on the UK economy are lacking today, so the pound is not expected to continue to rise in the trading chart. Most likely, the demand for the US dollar will return, and the British pound will weaken and start to decline.

  • Open buy transactions when the quote reaches the level of 1.2993 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the level of 1.3027 (thicker green line on the chart). Take profit when the quote reaches the value of 1.3027.
  • Open sell transactions when the quote reaches the level of 1.2952 (red line on the chart), targeting a drop to the level of 1.2913. The decision of the Fed to maintain the interest rate at 0.25% could strengthen the US dollar, which in turn will weaken the British pound. Take profit when the quote reaches the level of 1.2913.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 30, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Cellebrite has released a new cryptocurrency tracking tool that gives law enforcement and analysts the ability to track illegal crypto transactions. This tool was named "Cellebrite Crypto Tracer". The new offering is powered by CypherTrace and aims to track the illegal crypto world involved in money laundering, terrorism, drugs, human trafficking, arms sales, and ransomware programs.

The toolkit will be available to investigators, analysts, and non-technical agents who wish to legally obtain evidence and track criminals who use cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin via the darknet. Citing data from an Oxford University study, Cellebrite said $ 76 billion worth of illegal activities also includes Bitcoin.

Cellebrite Crypto Tracer enables investigators to collect and select millions of open and private references, fraud and human intelligence data, resulting in a dataset of over 522 million points that can then be mapped

Leeor Ben-Peretz, Cellebrite Strategy Director, states that Cellebrite Crypto Tracer is able to assign millions of data such as account type, account holder, contract types, contract owners and more. It can also indicate where the illegal funds went, whether to your wallet or the stock exchange.

Technical Market Outlook:

Since the ETH/USD pair had made a High-Tide Doji candlestick pattern at the top of the last wave up seen at $332.43 the price made temporary pull-back and started to consolidate after the bounce. The current horizontal range is narrow and it is located between the levels of $312.04 - $325.47. The bulls are still in control of the market and will try to continue the up trend soon. The next target is seen at the level of $355 and the nearest technical support is located at the level of $305.20 and $300.00. There is only 2 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $435.28

WR2 - $378.51

WR1 - $351.41

Weekly Pivot - $292.40

WS1 - $265.43

WS2 - $206.30

WS3 - $178.38

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Ethereum is higher than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $365 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 30, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Crypto fund manager Grayscale Investments managed to increase its assets by another $ 1 billion in less than two weeks.

According to Grayscale on Twitter, the investment firm currently has assets in AUM worth $ 5.1 billion. These funds are mainly held in Grayscale funds for Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with the company's large-cap digital fund. There are also smaller allocations in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum Classic, Horizen, Litecoin, Stellar Lumens, XRP, and Zcash.

This represents an AUM increase of almost $ 1 billion in just 11 days, according to the July 17 update. The company more than doubled the AUM value of its BCH, from $ 6 million to $ 12.8 million over the period. Grayscale added $ 782 million to his BTC trust, $ 174 million to his ETH trust, $ 12.7 million to his ETC trust, and $ 6.7 million to his LTC trust.

Although the investment firm currently has $ 4.3bn of AUM for Bitcoin, documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission show Grayscale has not bought any cryptocurrency since June 19. Grayscale bought 19,879 BTC that day, which at the time seemed to indicate that the company was buying Bitcoin faster than miners could produce blocks.

However, according to a Grayscale report from Q3 2019, 80% of the proceeds in this quarter came from Bitcoin already in circulation, not from recently mined tokens.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a possible Double Top price pattern at the level of $11,317.The momentum is still strong and positive, but is decreasing, howaever, in a case of a up wave extension, the next target is seen at the level of $11,855 and $11,500. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $10,855 and $10,430. There is only 2 days until the month's end and the current monthly candle looks bullish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,362

WR2 - $10,720

WR1 - $10,360

Weekly Pivot - $9,731

WS1 - $9,314

WS2 - $8,690

WS3 - $8,269

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Bitcoin has significantly increased, but still the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 07/30/20

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For the EUR/USD currency pair, there is a coincidence of technical analysis regarding the ascending channels, where the quote with surgical accuracy follows the trend lines that were built last week. The trading recommendation regarding the price rebound from the lower border of the yellow channel has a 100% coincidence, where it was possible to take profit from the level of 1.1740 towards 1.1780.

Analyzing the current price fluctuation relative to the technical analysis, we can see the touch of the upper border of the blue channel (1.1793), where resistance was found, on the basis of which it was possible to return to the lower border of the yellow channel (1.1768). In the current situation, there is something similar to the previous trading day, where we will receive a sell or buy signal depending on the price fixing points relative to the trend lines.

Two possible development scenarios can be considered based on the location of trend lines relative to the price.

The first scenario considers a further upward movement along the border of the yellow channel, where if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1800, the way will open towards the level of 1.1850. In fact, this step will change the slope of the blue channel.

The second scenario considers the breakdown of the yellow channel and, as a result, the price rebound from the upper border of the blue channel, which may lead to a correction stage in the market. In this case, we can consider entering the market below the level of 1.1760 towards 1.1700. The next sell position will occur after the price consolidates below 1.1680.

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The GBP/USD currency pair has a control touch at the psychological level of 1.3000, where a characteristic slowdown of the quote occurred, thereby repeating the natural component of the market.

As discussed in the previous review, the level of 1.3000 is in this case a resistance in the market, but due to its high degree of importance, its interaction boundaries are extended by 50 points on each side (1.2950//1.3000//1.3050).

The first signal that the trader will receive is a rebound from the coordinate and fixing the price lower than 1.2940. This signal can lead to a move towards 1.2885-1.2800. Also, every experienced trader knows in personal practice that there are no impenetrable levels in the market, which means that price consolidation above the level of 1.3050 can lead to further price movement towards the breakdown.

Based on the above information, the following conclusions can be drawn:

- Buy positions should be considered above 1.3055 with the prospect of a movement to 1.3100-1.3150.

- Sell positions should be considered below 1.2940 with the prospect of a movement to 1.2885-1.2800.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 30, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has been continuing the local up trend and made another higher high at the level of 1.1805. This price behavior might indicate up trend development towards the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last big wave down seen at the weekly time frame chart located at the level of 1.1822. However, during the last bull run the market has made a Pin Bar candlestick pattern at the top of the move, so the local pull-back might occur any time now. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1655 and 1.1720. Please notice the overbought market conditions as well.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2024

WR2 - 1.1839

WR1 - 1.1768

Weekly Pivot - 1.1582

WS1 - 1.1509

WS2 - 1.1334

WS3 - 1.1257

Trading Recommendations:

The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540 has been violated, so the EUR/USD pair confirmed the up trend. The next targets in the long-term are seen at the levels of 1.1813 - 1.1851. There is no indication of any bigger correction to come, so all the dips should be bought until the level of 1.1347 is clearly violated.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 30, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made another local high at the level of 1.3011, just a tad below the technical resistance located at 1.3017, which is rather another confirmation of the positive sentiment despite the overbought market conditions. The bulls are still in control over this market and the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.3017, 1.3047 and 1.3068. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.2869 and 1.2848. Please notice the extremely overbought market conditions despite strong and positive momentum might result in dynamic pull-back soon.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3215

WR2 - 1.2993

WR1 - 1.2929

Weekly Pivot - 1.2717

WS1 - 1.2632

WS2 - 1.2427

WS3 - 1.2355

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404).

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Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the GBP/USD pair on July 30? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair

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It looks more and more stable for the GBP/USD pair. Firstly, the quotes of the pair continue to trade confidently above the rising trend line, without any attempts to gain a foothold below it. Secondly, yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting and its results influenced the pound to a much lesser extent than the euro. Thus, we can even assume that traders have already had enough of purchases for the euro and are ready to slightly "let go", which will allow it to start falling, but this cannot be said for the pound sterling yet. In any case, as long as the price is above the trend line, you should only trade up. The time for bears will come only after breaking the trend line.

We have already written about the results of the Fed meeting in the euro/dollar article for beginners. We recommend that everyone read it, since this partly applies to the pound/dollar pair. In the same article, we will focus on the events that are scheduled for Thursday, July 30. And there are a lot of them. Nothing interesting will happen in the UK, as usual. But the most important report for this week will be published in the US. We are talking about the preliminary value of GDP in the second quarter of 2020. GDP - the Gross Domestic Product is a monetary representation of all goods and services produced in a country over a certain time (usually a month, quarter, or year). The GDP indicator for the second quarter will show how much the value has changed compared to the first quarter. And now, attention! Forecasts predict a 35% drop in the most important indicator of the state of the US economy. The value for the second quarter is not final, it may be adjusted over the next month or two, but it is unlikely to be adjusted too much. For comparison, the EU countries and the EU as a whole may lose up to 12% of GDP in the second quarter, according to the same forecasts. Thus, according to today's report, the American economy could sink three times more strongly due to the coronavirus epidemic and the lockdown (as the hard quarantine is called) than in Europe. The corresponding report will be published later in the UK, but even it does not predict such a strong fall in the economy, although the UK has suffered the most among the European countries. This leaves one question: will traders react to these terrible numbers? If yes, then the US dollar is waiting for a new drop in the afternoon. But it is also possible that a reaction will not follow.

The following scenarios are possible on July 30:

1) If the MACD indicator gives a new buy signal (so far there is a signal for a correction, circled in a red circle) during the day, then we will recommend buying the pound/dollar pair again with targets at 1.3033 and 1.3073. When this signal is formed, the price should be located strictly above the trend line.

2) But from our point of view, you can only consider sales after the price consolidates below the trend line. In this case, the trend will change to a downward one and the initiative will go to sellers. The targets for sales will be the levels 1.2871 and 1.2831.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD pair on July 30? Plan for opening and closing deals

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair also continues to trade with an increase. However, the euro was not as confident in the last trading day (that is, yesterday) as the previous ones. We continue to draw the attention of novice traders to the upward channel, which shows an upward trend. If the price leaves (through its lower border), this will mean that the trend is over, and the quotes of the pair can finally start falling. At least there will be a signal to sell in this case. An attempt to consolidate below the channel was made yesterday. Right now, the EUR/USD pair is making a second exit attempt. If it succeeds, then sellers will finally be able to enter the market.

An important event took place in the US on Wednesday evening - summing up the Federal Reserve meeting. We have already discussed why this event is so important in previous articles. However, the meeting turned out to be completely passable, as no special changes were made to the Fed's monetary policy. The key rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. There was no talk of economic stimulus programs at this meeting, although what can we say about them, if there are already enough of them for trillions of dollars? Thus, monetary policy remained, in the language of bankers, "ultra-deep", that is, aimed at stimulating the economy by all means. More dovish policy only in the European Union, where the loan rate is 0%, and negative -0.5% on deposits, which means that everyone who wants to put money in the bank for a deposit, must pay an additional 0.5% on top. Yes, in the context of another financial crisis, this is possible. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed confidence that the central bank will continue to do everything possible to stabilize the economy, but called the future, timing and scale of recovery uncertain due to the coronavirus pandemic, and also noted the important role of the US government in this issue. "A full economic recovery is unlikely until people are confident that they can safely go about their normal business," Powell said.

The following scenarios are possible on July 30:

1) Buying the euro is still relevant. Thus, we recommend buying the pair today if it remains inside the ascending channel or, after a short period of time, returns to it according to a new buy signal from the MACD indicator. At this time, the MACD indicator has turned down, which means that it is impossible to trade upward. If the above condition is met, your targets for buying the euro are 1.1826 and 1.1863.

2) We advise you to start selling the pair in the near future. Firstly, the upward trend has dragged on for too long, and secondly, the pair could, in the next hour, perform a clear consolidation below the rising channel. Since the MACD indicator has already turned down, it is possible to open sales of the pair with targets at the levels of 1.1733 and 1.1677.

What's on the chart:

Support and Resistance Price Levels - Levels that are targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction it is preferable to trade now.

Arrows up/down - indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator is a histogram and a signal line, the crossing of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/JPY price movement, July 30, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the GB/JPY pair is moving upslope. It is trying to reach the 136.44 - 136.60 levels. Please, pay attention to the 135.39 level. This scenario is unlikely to occur if the pair declines and closes bellow 135.39.

The overall bias for GBP/JPY is bullish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CHF Price Movement on July 30, 2020.

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The USD/CHF pair is now heading toward the area of 0.9116 - 0.9072. This bearish movement has been confirmed by the price moving inside a downward slope channel. Please pay attention if the price makes a retracement upwards and closes above 0.9207. If so, all the targets for the downward movement will be canceled automatically.

The overall bias for USD/CHF now is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 30, 2020

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We are currently looking for a break above minor resistance at 0.9087. It will indicate that the pair is likely to test the resistance level at 0.9138. Only a break above here will open the way for continuation towards the next upside targets at 0.9322 and 0.9500.

Support is now seen at 0.9053 and at 0.9032. The pair may break above 0.9087 and more importantly above 0.9138.

R3: 0.9154

R2: 0.9138

R1: 0.9105

Pivot: 0.9087

S1: 0.9069

S2: 0.9053

S3: 0.9032

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8646 with our stop placed at 0.9000

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2020

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Support in the 122.81 - 123.05 area has protected the downside and we should expect a new break above minor resistance at 123.92. The pair may rise to 125.82 and 127.38 as EUR/JPY is trying to reach 129.26.

Support is seen in the 122.87 - 123.05 area, which we think will be able to protect the downside for the next push higher.

R3: 124.85

R2: 124.30

R1: 123.92

Pivot: 123.60

S1: 123.31

S2: 122.91

S3: 122.81

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 123.35 with our stop placed at 122.75

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 30, 2020

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the euro fulfilled its irresistible and inextinguishable desire to work out the border of the global price channel at around 1.1804. This channel originates from the July 2008 high. The price begins to form a divergence with the Marlin Oscillator. The first target of the decline is 1.1620.

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The Marlin divergence looks unambiguous on the four-hour chart, and it was created twice in a row. We are waiting for the price to move to the target level of 1.1620. On the way to it, the price will face an obstacle in the form of the MACD line in the area of 1.1686.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar reached the forming line of the triple divergence yesterday, forming it in an exemplary manner. Now we are waiting for the price reversal down to the target range of 0.6410/80. The goals for the downward movement will still be adjusted, but the closest is 0.7070 - the July 24 low and the June 10 high.

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There are no reversal signs on the 4-hour chart. Perhaps it will be the price divergence with the Marlin oscillator. At the moment, the situation is completely upward: the price is above the balance and MACD indicator lines, Marlin is moving sideways in the positive trend zone. The price falling below the MACD line at 0.7142 is a signal for a reversal.

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USDCAD testing downside confirmation, potential drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.3319

Reason for Entry: 78.6% fib extension

Take Profit :1.3262

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing low

Stop Loss:1.3401

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal overlap resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on July 30, 2020

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen traded below the 105.15 level on Wednesday, but the second target at 104.60 was not reached. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning up, the correction may continue with an attack on the descending line of the price channel, that is, above the 105.60 level.

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The double convergence is not strong on the four-hour chart, but it is fully working out, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is about to penetrate into the positive trend zone. Consolidating the price above the 105.15 level could lead to a retest of the 105.70 level. Stock markets are complacent about the second wave of coronavirus; yesterday, the US S&P 500 rose by 1.24%, today the Japanese Nikkei 225 is growing by 0.20%. Accordingly, the dollar can somewhat restore the lost positions.

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GBPJPY facing bullish pressure, potential for further upside

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 136.112

Reason for Entry: Ascending trend line, 23.6% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap support

Take Profit: 137.060

Reason for Take Profit: 127.2% fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 135.688

Reason for Stop Loss: Horizontal swing low support, 50% fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 30. The US GDP report can finish off the US dollar. A new international conflict is brewing

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 134.8997

Recently, we often write about the fact that a "cold war" is brewing between China and the United States. However, we should not forget that the UK also has serious claims to Beijing. And not just in the UK. Recently, the whole world has faced the "Chinese problem" and the "Chinese virus". In addition, China has adopted a law on "national security for Hong Kong", which, in fact, canceled the autonomy of this city and immediately caused a flurry of indignation in almost half of the countries of the world that conducted active business with Hong Kong, but are not going to continue to do so if Beijing establishes power over this city. Beijing has established power, and Hong Kong has already begun to experience all the delights of life as part of China. The United States has cut off most of its trade preferences, many countries and companies have refused to export technology to this district, and the situation in Hong Kong will only get worse in the future. However, it is the UK that has the most claims, first, for the "coronavirus" (the British government has already stated that it does not know how to conduct further business with China), and second, for Hong Kong, because it is according to the British-Chinese Treaty of 1984, since 1997, Hong Kong must be Autonomous for at least 50 years, that is, until 2047. However, the Chinese government, in its own way, asked London not to interfere in China's internal affairs, and that was the end of all diplomacy. However, Boris Johnson immediately said that he would provide opportunities for all residents of Hong Kong with British passports to live and work in the UK without visas, and in the future even have the opportunity to obtain British citizenship. However, China is unlikely to just let everyone go to Britain. According to the latest information, Beijing is going to block Boris Johnson's proposal by simply not recognizing the British foreign passports of everyone who wants to leave China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry officially stated: "The UK was the first to break the promise, so China will consider not recognizing the British national foreign passport as a valid document for travel." In general, it seems that the battle for Hong Kong is just beginning, and the world is on the verge of a new crisis.

At the same time, China itself has serious claims to the UK. Recall that initially it was the Chinese company Huawei that was supposed to develop a 5G network in the Foggy Albion. However, at the very last moment, Boris Johnson refused the services of this company, not without the help of Donald Trump, who has long waged a diplomatic, economic and espionage war against this company Huawei and China in general. The EU countries are also inclined to the same decision. China believes that this was not without Washington's intervention and now threatens to impose retaliatory sanctions against Nokia and Ericsson, which may develop 5G networks instead of Huawei. No open threats have been made yet, however, some insider sources report exactly this. In addition, the Chinese government is considering banning the export of products of these two companies produced in China, which will mean a full-scale economic war. Thus, the EU is also now in a completely incomprehensible situation. After all, it is possible to transfer the production of Nokia and Ericsson companies from China, but all this will take a long time, require multi-billion-dollar investments, and it is also possible that Beijing will be happy to put sticks in the wheels. However, official China rejects such scenarios and assures that it is not going to launch any wars against the Finnish and Swedish telecommunications companies.

Meanwhile, experts at the London school of Economics predict the biggest drop in the British economy in the country's history. Experts note that Brexit and the absence of an agreement may affect those sectors of the economy that emerged relatively unscathed from the "coronavirus crisis". The report notes that it does not matter whether Boris Johnson is able to negotiate a trade agreement with the European Union or not, if barriers and restrictions on trade arise between the bloc and the Kingdom, this will in any case have a negative effect.

At the same time, nothing interesting in economic terms is happening in the UK. There is no new information about the progress of negotiations between London and Brussels, that is, on the topic that most worries traders right now. Macroeconomic statistics are also not planned for this week, so traders can trade only on the basis of technical factors and the fundamental background from overseas, which has not changed at all in recent weeks. This is probably why the nature of the movement of the pound/dollar pair has not changed in recent weeks. As for the macroeconomic background from overseas, yesterday's Fed meeting brought traders some important and interesting information. The Fed left the key rate unchanged, as expected by traders. No more reports were scheduled for Wednesday.

On Thursday, the United States will release the key report of the week - on GDP for the second quarter. True, this is not the final value of the indicator, it may still change, but, you must agree, when the forecast promises -35%, it is unlikely that anything will change dramatically in the next month or two, during which the report can still be adjusted. In fact, this report alone may be enough to send the US dollar into a complete "knockdown". However, there is another side to the coin. The US dollar has been falling non-stop for quite a long time. And it falls not only because of the weakness of the US economy at this time, and not only against the pound. Thus, there is reason to assume that traders will ignore all of today's reports from America. Why do the pair's bulls need additional macroeconomic support, if they are already busy buying without it? Against the background of the GDP report, data on applications for unemployment benefits and personal consumption expenditures look absolutely not interesting.

Thus, at this time, we do not see how the upward trend for the pound/dollar pair can end. To be more precise, what exactly needs to happen in order for it to end. Most likely, it will end without any high-profile events, just when the bulls get enough and remember that the situation with the British economy is not much better than with the American one. Then the British currency will not have to be envious, since it has not lost its potential for falling due to Brexit and the lack of desire for London to negotiate with Brussels, and not to put ultimatums.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair continues to remain stable and is currently 101 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average". On Thursday, July 30, thus, we expect movement within the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2893 and 1.3095. Turning the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will indicate a new round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2878

S3 – 1.2817

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3000

R2 – 1.3062

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move up on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, it is recommended to stay in purchases of the British currency with the goals of 1.3062 and 1.3095 (the level of volatility on Thursday), until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downwards. Short positions can be considered no earlier than fixing the price below the moving average with the first goal of 1.2756.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 30. Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo accuse China of openly supporting the Democratic Party

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 107.9624

The EUR/USD currency pair maintains the prospects of an upward movement. However, the technical picture now does not raise any questions, unlike the fundamental picture of the state of things. We have repeatedly said that, in principle, the current strengthening of the European currency, which had been falling for two years before, but lost only 2 cents in 2019, is quite logical and justified by the events that are happening now in the United States. Even yesterday, when the results of the Fed meeting were scheduled to be summed up, traders were not discussing the Fed meeting at all. All the topics that excite market participants have remained the same. And it is these topics that can contribute to a new fall in the US currency. At the same time, we have already noted the fact that the upward trend can end at any time. First, because of the purely technical need for a correction, and second, because the dollar can not fall forever on the same news. In any case, you need to go through the main ones.

The topic of "coronavirus" remains the main one at this time. In the United States, a high number of COVID-2019 diseases is still recorded, but in recent days, the rate of spread of the epidemic has still begun to decrease and on Monday, less than 60 thousand cases of the disease were recorded. The consolation for the American healthcare system and Donald Trump personally is weak. But this is better than if the growth rate continued to increase.

Meanwhile, riots and protests continue in many American cities. The situation is most difficult in Seattle and Portland, where protests have long been non-peaceful. Protesters use Molotov cocktails, rocks, stun guns, sledgehammers, bats, and so on. This is the same situation in many other cities in the United States. Earlier, Donald Trump sent special forces to several cities to stop riots and restore law and order as soon as possible. However, at the moment, it cannot be said that this plan of Trump has worked. Protests and rallies continue. The US Justice Secretary, who is also the Attorney General, called the actions of the protesters "an attack on the government". A lengthy speech followed, during which it became known that the US government would continue to resist the protesters in order to ensure calm and a safe life for American citizens. It is also reported that the mayors of six American cities at once sent Trump demands to remove special forces from their regions. Mayors have asked Congress to limit the powers of the US President in this matter. According to mayors and governors of many cities and states, the protesters are only exercising their right guaranteed by the Constitution, and all actions of the federal authorities only provoke violent clashes with law enforcement officials. It is also reported that the mayors of Chicago, Seattle, Portland, Albuquerque, Kansas city and Washington are outraged by the actions of Trump, who sent armed special forces to their cities.

In general, what is currently happening in the United States, in other words, than "anarchy" and "chaos", can not be called. The most interesting and, unfortunately, funny thing is how Donald Trump himself is trying to influence the situation and sway voters in his direction three months before the presidential election. Naturally, Donald Trump blames China and the Democrats for all the troubles. Sometimes personally, sometimes through his proxies, such as Mike Pompeo, who is Secretary of State. On Tuesday, Pompeo said that the Chinese work closely with the Democratic Party and regularly hold talks with them on Capitol Hill. He complained that American diplomats also want to be able to "talk to the Chinese people", although it is unlikely that this is what he meant. Most likely, Pompeo is hinting that China actively supports Joe Biden, as Donald Trump himself has repeatedly said before. And, of course, regularly "gets" to Joe Biden himself from the current president of the United States. In recent interviews, Trump called Biden a "puppet of the left" and said that if he wins, "cities in the United States will burn with fire, and markets will collapse". Under him, according to Trump, the United States will enter the "Golden age".

In general, once again we can note that when the country has a serious and difficult situation with "coronavirus" and "unrest", the US authorities are thinking more about the upcoming elections. However, the current state of affairs in the United States is a consequence of the problems of power that have accumulated over the years. We have repeatedly suggested that the current unrest and the "coronavirus" are supported by some hidden force. We don't want to guess who this force might be. However, somehow the whole world rallied against Trump and his administration, somehow too holistically and precisely in time.

And finally, in Germany, the Minister of Education and Research of Germany, Anja Karlikzek, made another statement that reflects the real state of affairs in the development of a vaccine against "coronavirus". "Scientists are working at an unprecedented speed, but in such complex projects, steps in the opposite direction are always possible. Don't wait for a miracle. We should assume that the vaccine will be ready for the general population at the earliest in the middle of next year," Karliktsek said.

Thursday will be quite an important day for the euro and the US dollar. The most important event of the day will be the publication of GDP for the second quarter in the US. However, we will analyze all American reports in the article on GBP/USD. In Europe today, there will also be something to pay attention to. Early in the morning, German unemployment figures will be published, which continue to please the traders. It is expected that the main unemployment rate will grow to only 6.5%, and the number of new unemployed will be +43 thousand. It will also publish a preliminary GDP for the second quarter with a forecast of -11.1% in annual terms and -9% in quarterly terms. This is, of course, a lot, but compared to the possible -35% of American GDP – nothing. Also on July 30, Germany will publish the consumer price index for July with a forecast of 0.2% y/y. Harmonised inflation should be 0.4% y/y. Weak values, but in the context of a pandemic and crisis, inflation is not an important indicator. For the EU, the unemployment rate and consumer confidence will also be released. We would say that the key report on Thursday in Europe will be German GDP.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of July 30 is 93 points and is still characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1692 and 1.1878. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of downward correction within the ascending trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1719

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1475

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1841

R2 – 1.1963

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to continue trading on the increase with the goals of 1.1841, 1.1878 and 1.1963 until the new reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards. It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than when the pair is fixed below the moving average line with the first target of 1.1597.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD holding above ascending trendline support!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.71713

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support, moving average, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 0.72191

Reason for Take Profit: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 0.71489

Reason for Stop Loss: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound prepares for another leap

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The national currency of Great Britain continues to feel confident enough against the background of the weakening of the US dollar. The sterling value is approaching the strategically important level of 1.30 dollars per pound.

This morning, the sterling jumped again and managed to gain 0.3% against the US dollar. However, the pound did not show any significant dynamics against the single European currency and remained unchanged. The reason for the sterling's excitement and the dollar's fall lies in the difficult epidemiological situation in the United States of America, where the growth of coronavirus infection has not been stopped. It seems that America is fighting COVID-19 one on one, while the rest of the world was able to cope with the pandemic.

The pound has already reached 1.29 dollars, which has put it at its highest level over the past five months, coming close to pre-crisis indicators, which, it should be noted, were still not the highest in history. What is alarming is the fact that the pound remains unchanged against the euro at 90.66.

At the same time, the daily volatility of the pound against the US dollar is also increasing. So, its level has already reached the highest values for the last month and a half and is already within 11%.

However, this does not cancel out the growth of interest in the national currency of the UK, which is provided by the revision of some currency risks associated with the fact that the cost of securities in the country in the second month of summer decreased. Hedge funds were the most active buyers of sterling on the market.

However, many experts are still inclined to believe that the pound's popularity became obvious after the US currency entered a stage of decline and began to show weakness day by day.

According to analysts, the pound's growth is affected by the level of economic recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, the US economy is clearly not coping with this, while the European economy is doing very well. At least, no grandiose problems have emerged lately. Moreover, it is increasingly likely that the European region will be able to avoid a serious second wave of coronavirus, which means that the negative impact on the economy will also be less severe.

In support of this, we can add that data from Europe has been encouraging. This allows us to hope that next year will also be quite good and deep failures will not happen. But such a statement is still difficult in relation to America.

Thus, the strategic mark of the pound at 1.30 dollars per sterling is very close, which will become a reliable support point for further upward movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. July Fed meeting: preview

The results of the July meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be announced today. Perhaps this is the central event of the current week, especially since this meeting will most likely not be a "pass-through". Recent events in the US suggest that the country's economy will recover at a slower pace than previously expected, so the Fed could take a soft position, putting additional pressure on the dollar. But an alternative option is not excluded: the central bank can ignore many negative factors (for example, leaving out the continued growth in the number of COVID-19 cases in the US), maintaining a wait-and-see position until the fall. In any case, higher volatility is expected for the EUR/USD pair this evening, as well as for other dollar pairs. And it is quite difficult to predict the direction of the price – the fundamental background is contradictory and uncertain. Therefore, you should only make trading decisions on the pair based on today's results. Let me remind you that the text of the accompanying statement will be announced at 21:00 (GMT) and press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will start at 21:30 (it lasts roughly 30-40 minutes).

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You should take note that the inconsistency of the fundamental background does not only lie in how the macroeconomic reports are diverse. For example, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector jumped by 4,800,000 in June. But at the same time, the indicator of wage growth turned out to be much worse than the forecast values. The level of average hourly wages on a monthly basis, firstly, remained in the negative area, and, secondly, collapsed to a multi-year low of -1.2%. The consumer confidence index also fell: this indicator dropped to 92.6 points in July. But the consumer price index showed a positive trend: the June CPI came out at the level of forecasts, reaching 0.6%. Core inflation (which does not include food and energy prices) last month was 1.2% on an annualized basis. This result turned out to be higher than the forecasts of most experts (who expected to see this indicator slightly lower - at around 1.1%). On a monthly basis, the core index rose to 0.2%, also beating analysts' forecasts.

It should also be recalled that the US economy slowed by 5% in the first quarter. As for the second quarter, experts' estimates differ. But absolutely all analysts agree that the results of the second quarter will be much worse than the first. According to the consensus forecast, US GDP will slow to -35%. This is a historical anti-record. The preliminary estimate will be published tomorrow, so the regulator's members will have to operate with their own calculations today.

As we can see, the macroeconomic reports are contradictory. This allows the controller to swing the pendulum both in one direction and in the other, deciding "the glass is half empty or half full".

In my opinion, the Fed will voice pessimistic rhetoric, taking a dovish position. Firstly, the coronavirus is still not letting go of the United States - the situation is only getting worse, and the number of cases is only greater. For example, 1,600 deaths of patients with COVID-19 were recorded over the past day in the United States. This is the highest daily increase in mortality in the country over the past two and a half months. The daily increase in infected people did not exceed the 25,000 mark during the Fed June meeting. Whereas in July this figure does not decrease (with rare exceptions) below the 60,000 mark. The alarm is raised by both doctors and scientists, who wrote an open letter to the White House demanding to tighten quarantine in the country.

Meanwhile, the bill on additional financial assistance to the US economy continues to be within the walls of Congress. Senators hacked the Democrats' $3 trillion initiative in May, considering the idea too costly. Now Congressmen are discussing the allocation of a trillion dollars. If Powell declares (directly or covertly) that this amount is not enough to "restart" the economy, the dollar will again be under strong pressure.

It is worth noting here that the Fed will probably leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged at its July meeting. This fact is absolutely expected and will not make any impression on traders. The main focus will be on the text of the accompanying statement and Powell's rhetoric at the press conference.

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If the Fed focuses its attention on positive trends in the labor market and inflation, while pointing to the need to reduce the amount of monetary stimulus in the foreseeable future, the dollar will receive quite firm support and strengthen throughout the market. But in my opinion, members of the Fed will not rush to such conclusions. On the contrary, most likely, the accompanying statement will contain a phrase about "potentially available incentive tools". In turn, Powell can talk about plans to introduce control of the bond yield curve at his press conference. In addition, the regulator will probably focus on the fact that low rates and incentive programs will continue to operate for a long time.

Such rhetoric will increase pressure on the dollar throughout the market, including EUR/USD. At the moment, buyers of EUR/USD are besieging the resistance level of 1.1750 (the lower border of the Kumo cloud on the monthly chart). Bulls have already stormed this price barrier several times, but could not gain a foothold higher. If the meeting ends according to the above scenario, the euro-dollar pair will not only overcome 1.1750, but also test the 18th figure. Otherwise, we will see a deep downward pullback to the first support level of 1.1580 (the Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). Given the high degree of uncertainty, trading decisions on the pair should only be made based on the results of Powell's press conference.

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