Global macro overview for 06/02/2018

The current week is characterized by an increase in aversion to more risky assets. The stock markets are dominated by drops, and the lower demand for risk translates into greater interest in bonds. Dow Jones Index fell by more than 6.0% at the time, ranking the largest drop in its history. The SP500 fell sharply in the second session in a row, losing more than 4.0%. Such falls on Wall Street have not been seen for two years. Extremely overvalued stocks are quickly cheaper, so this situation allowed for further rebound in the US currency. After a positive surprise in the form of a report from the US labor market, yesterday the US Dollar got an impulse to strengthen in the form of activity indicator readings in the US services sector. The ISM index for services increased in January to 59.9 points. from 56 points after adjusting the data for December, the highest level since August 2005. Yesterday, Mario Draghi stressed the power of economic expansion in the Eurozone, while the tone of today's speech of James Bullard from the Fed should be in line with expectations for continued normalization of monetary policy in the US.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 89.62 and now is heading higher towards the level of 90.11. Only a sustained breakout above this level would change the short-term outlook from bearish to more bullish.

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Global macro overview for 06/02/2018

Global macro overview for 06/02/2018:

Post-RBA decision market sentiment check

The interest rate decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia was in line with the market consensus, the main interest rate was maintained at 1.5%. Still, the bank expects that the growth rate of the Australian economy will remain at around 3.0% in the medium term, which will also be supported by the low level of money costs. The source of uncertainty for the economic outlook remains the level of household consumption due to the fact that their income is growing slowly and the level of indebtedness remains high. The situation on the labor market in Australia remains good. Further employment growth is expected, as well as a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. The CPI inflation index, as well as its base counterpart, remain below the target at 2.0%, however, the slow inflation increase due to the observed solid economic activity is anticipated. This, for now, should be an argument for maintaining the status quo in monetary policy.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 0.7897 was not strong enough to hold the supply and the market dropped lower towards the next Fibo at the level of 0.7820. The market conditions are oversold, both on RSI and Stochastic oscillator, so there is a chance for a bounce from 50% Fibo. In a case of the extension to the downside, the next support is seen at the level of 0.7729.

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Brent: Americans will not break the trend

The correction of oil has been brewing for a long time, and its catalysts have come from the stock market increased volatility, a stronger dollar and a report on the growth of production in the United States to 10.038 million b / s in November, which is the maximum since 1970. In the past few months, investors have forgotten about the tug of war between OPEC and American corporations, which from August 2016 to September 2017 laid the foundation for long-term consolidation. The US Energy Information Administration recalled it.

The states returned to the list of three superpowers capable of increasing the production of black gold above the psychologically important level of 10 million b / s. They compete with Russia and Saudi Arabia in a comfortable environment: Moscow and Riyadh are involved in OPEC and other countries' deal to limit production by 1.8 million b / s by the end of 2018. The cartel managed to achieve the main thing: The achieved perennial highs from 2 years ago, Brent and WTI soared more than twice. And the current prices are quite satisfied with the Americans. Are their corporations able to fill the market with oil, having previously hedged the price risks? Not sure.

Despite the fact that shale mining in 2018 is likely to repeat its success in 2011-2014 and expand by 1 million b / s, it will not be enough to cover the impressive global demand at 1.7 million b / s. Even if you add Brazil and Canada to the States developing super-deep deposits of tar sands. At the same time, the weak US dollar will continue to support the "bulls" for Brent and WTI.

According to Capital Economics, in December-January, half of the rise in oil prices can be explained by lowering the USD index to three-year lows. Black gold is quoted in dollars, so the vulnerability of the latter makes the work of Brent and WTI buyers much easier. The current correction of the "American" looks like a temporary phenomenon. The further improvement of macroeconomic statistics in the US will restore confidence in the bright future of the global economy and will force investors to buy other currencies on the expectations of monetary policy normalization by central banks-competitors of the Fed. At the same time, hopes for an increase in global oil demand will grow. Seasonal decline of the latter within the US has become another factor in the recoil of black gold.

Pig fans Brent and WTI have put US stock indexes, frightened by aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed after the release of strong statistics on the US labor market in January.

Dynamics of DowJones and WTI

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Source: Bloomberg.

Thus, it is premature to talk about a break in the uptrend in oil. At the same time, Goldman Sachs' forecast of Brent growth to $ 82.5 per barrel over the next 6 months still does not look like a utopia.

Technically, the further fate of the North Sea variety will depend on the test of the lower boundary of the upward trading channel. Success in this event will allow the "bears" to count on the implementation of the target by 88.6% on the pattern of the "Shark". Failure will increase the risks of recovery of the uptrend.

Brent, daily chart

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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 6, 2018

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair went downwards on Monday. The downwards movement is not yet strong enough to override the bullish outlook on the market. But, once price goes below the support line at 1.2300, the bias on the market would turn bearish. But now, the bias on the market is still bullish.

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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument merely moved sideways on February 5. Bears have been able to maintain the bearishness in the market so far; and thus, when a breakout occurs, it would most probably be in favor of bears. The support levels at 0.9300, 0.9250, and 0.9200 could be reached this week.

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GBP/USD: The Cable moved downwards on Monday and Tuesday, went upwards on Wednesday and Thursday, and then pulled back on Friday. The pullback may end up, opening an opportunity to buy long at agreeable prices, as price goes towards the distribution territories at 1.4200, 1.4250, and 1.4300.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair plummeted on Monday (just as certain other JPY pairs did). The pullback has effectively overridden the recent long-term bullishness in the market, bringing about a "sell" signal. The demand level at 108.50 would soon be tested, and would be effectively breached to the downside.

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EUR/JPY: The sudden and serious pullback that was experienced yesterday effectively put an end to the recent bearish outlook on this cross. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, which points to the possibility of the market going further downwards. The next targets are the demand zones at 134.00 and 133.50.

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Bitcoin analysis for February 06, 2018

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Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price reached yesterday's target at the level of $6.845. Watch out Canada! New York wants a piece of the bitcoin mining market, securing for its residents revenues and jobs that come along with the electricity intensive process. Bitcoin mining might even help revive local economies that once relied on polluting industries. The technical picture is bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 4H time - frame, I found strong bearish momentum in the background. Besides, I found a strong downward channel in the place and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $4.680 (median line) and at the price of $2.645 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%).

Support/Resistance

$6.904 – Intraday resistance

$5.955– Intraday support

$4.682 – Objective target 1

$2.645 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of gold for February 06, 2018

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Recently, gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,3430. According to the 30M time frame, I found a well created upward channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also founda oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $1,349.00 and extreme target at the price of $1,357.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,344.00

R2: $1,349.30

R3: $1,357.00

Support levels:

S1: $1,331.87

S2: $1,324.13

S3: $1,319.24

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for February 06, 2018

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2400. According to the 30M time frame, I found rejection of the supply trendline and pivot resistance, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2330 and at the price of 1.2290.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2440

R2: 1.2515

R3: 1.2552

Support levels:

S1: 1.2330

S2: 1.2290

S3: 1.2216

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 6, 2018

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2250 is being expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750.

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Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 confirms a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2750.

Otherwise, bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 6, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.

On Friday, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed. This enhances the bearish scenario initially towards the price levels of 0.7230 and 0.7165.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7350. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 06, 2018

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is rising from the level of 0.7305 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7305 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame.
  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7305. So, buy above the level of 0.7305 with the first target at 0.7364 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100).
  • This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.7364, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the target of 0.7437. The level of 1.4250 is a good place to take profits today.
  • On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the level of 0.7305 (pivot point), a further decline to 0.7202 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
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Bitcoin analysis for 06/02/2018

The British credit card issuers are afraid that people will get into debt if they buy cryptocurrencies and the prices will continue to fall. The Lloyds Banking Group will issue a statement to its nine million credit card users today. According to reports, the bank will block all attempts to buy cryptocurrencies using credit cards. However, debit cards are still accepted. In an email, a company spokesperson said: "We do not accept purchases of cryptocurrencies made with credit cards at Lloyds Bank, Bank of Scotland, Halifax and MBNA".

The banking giant is the first in the UK that limits its credit cards and the purchasing power of its customers. It could additionally exacerbate the drop in prices because it became a bit more difficult to buy cryptocurrencies. Some banks are already anti-crypto because decentralized money is against their business model. This movement follows a wave of government regulations around the world which want to prevent the use of digital currencies for criminal activity. In contrast to many misleading reports in the mainstream media, there was no ban on trade or trading in India or South Korea. Three large US banks take a similar stance on the last week's announcements. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. stated that they would no longer allow the purchase of a crypt by means of a credit card. Using a credit card is riskier, and the banks try to mitigate it by forcing their clients to use their own money to buy virtual currencies. They are also concerned that customers will spend more than they can afford - which is much easier when they are not their money.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The overall rally to the level of $19,550 might be considered completed, and the correction to the downside is the part of another, bigger cycle. Currently, the price has reached the territory of the previous wave (4) of the lower cycle, and the low of this wave is at the level of $5,520. This might be the level for a bounce higher.

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Trading plan for 06/02/2018

The biggest sell-off in the SP500 index for six years has influenced the Asian session, and evidence of increased risk aversion can also be seen in the forex and commodity markets. The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged, but it was not without the dovish tone.

On Tuesday 6th of February, the event calendar is light in important economic releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on German Factory Orders data, US Trade Balance data and Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data.

SPY analysis for 06/02/2018:

The SP500 index slumped yesterday by 4.1%, and the February sell-off erases the increases from the previous three months. The sales frenzy reach the market in Asia, where the Japanese Nikkei 225 fell today by 4.7%, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite loses 3.2%. In an avalanche pace, investors leave their redeemed positions after an impressive rally in January.Risk aversion combined with the reduction of accumulated positions has classic implications. The volatility index of the American VIX exchange has doubled its quotations. Yields of 10-year Treasury bonds dropped from 2.85%. up to 2.65%.

Let's now take a look at the SPY (SP500 ETF) technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has closed almost all the gaps that were left during the recent rally and so far bottomed at the level of 262.85. The market conditions are extremely oversold at this time frame and the momentum indicator is still pointing to the downside. Next technical support is seen at the level of 262.70.

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Market Snapshot: DJIA lost the most in recent history

The price of Dow Jones Index had been sold heavily yesterday as it went from 26,606 points to 23,930 points in two days.There is still a possibility of a further sell-off as both RSI and Stochastic oscillator did not reach the oversold levels yet. The next supports are seen at the levels of 23,615 and 23,240 points.

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Market Snapshot: DAX gaps down hard as well

The German DAX index has gaped down below the local trend line with a bottom at the level of 12, 241 and now is trying to bounce. During the way down it filled almost all gaps left during the rally. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 12,500 and then at the level of 12, 600.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 06, 2018

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Overview:

  • Pivot: 0.9333.
  • The USD/CHF pair is still trading in downwards from the spot of 0.9377/0.9333. The price of 0.9377 represents the first resistance on the H1 chart. The pair fell from the levels of 0.9377 and 0.9333 to the bottom around 0.9393. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9333 and 0.9377 followed by 0.9432, while the daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9289 and 0.9230. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9333 and 0.9230. Hence, we expect a range of 147 pips in the coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.6790, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9377, the market will decline further to 0.9289. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9230 in order to test the second support (0.9230). On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9377, then this scenario may become invalidated. Also, it should be noted that the stop loss should be placed above the area of 0.9432.
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 6, 2018

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USD/JPY is under pressure. The pair keeps trading on the downside and around the lower Bollinger band. Very strong downward momentum is indicated by the relative strength index, which has broken below the over-sold level of 30 while showing no signs of a bullish divergence. Intraday bearishness persists, and a break below the immediate support at 108.40 would trigger a further drop toward 108.10.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 109.45 with a target of 109.75.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 109.45, take profit at 109.75.

Resistance levels: 109.75, 110.75, and 111.00

Support levels: 108.40, 108.10, and 107.75.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 6, 2018

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Our upside targets which we predicted in the previous analysis have been hit. USD/CHF is expected to continue the upside movement. The pair stays above its rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play support roles and maintain the upside bias. The relative strength index is bullish and calls for a further advance. The downside potential should be limited at the key support at 0.9285.

Therefore, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new challenge with targets at 0.9375 and 0.9405 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9285, take profit at 0.9375.

Resistance levels: 0.9375, 0.9405, and 0.9455

Support levels: 0.9255, 0.9230, and 0.9200.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 6, 2018

The Dollar index is trying to break above the 4-hour cloud. Trend is neutral as price has entered the 4-hour cloud. Medium-term trend remains bearish though. A bounce in the Dollar index is long overdue and we most probably have started a counter trend bounce.

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In the 4-hour chart the Dollar index has support at 89.15 and resistance still at 89.60-89.80. Price has started making higher highs and higher lows, but bulls need to break above 89.60-89.80 resistance in order for a larger bounce to be confirmed under way. A rejection at current levels and a break below 89.15 will most certainly push price towards 88-87.50.

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On a daily basis the Dollar index closed above the tenkan-sen (Red line indicator). This is a bullish sign. Target is at the kijun-sen at 90.70 at least. A break above 90.70 will open the way for a push higher towards 92.80.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 6, 2018

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All our downside targets which we predicted in previous analysis have been hit. GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair accelerated on the downside. In addition, the downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index has broken down its oversold level of 30.

Hence, as long as 153.00 is not surpassed, look for a new decline with targets at 151.00 and 150.15 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a Long position is recommended to be above 153.00 with the target at 154.60.

Strategy: SELL, Stop loss at 153.00, Take profit at 151.00

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 153.50, 154.60, and 155.10

Support levels: 151.00, 150.15, and 149.65.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 6, 2018

Gold price remains inside a trading range of $1,330-$1,347. Trend is bearish as price remains below the 4-hour Kumo. Early today, price is testing cloud resistance. Bulls need to be careful as long as price is below the Kumo.

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Black rectangle - resistance

Gold price shows rejection signs at the 4-hour Kumo. Resistance at $1,347 is important. Support is at $1,339-6. However the most important support level for the short term is at $1,330. A break below it will push it towards $1,310. If price breaks above resistance, then we should expect price to move towards $1,380-90.

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Magenta line - long-term resistance

On a daily basis Gold remains above the kijun-sen and below the tenkan-sen. Price is still below the long-term resistance trend line. A rejection here will push price towards cloud support near $1,300-$1,290 at least. As long as price does not break above $1,350, we are in danger of a sharp move lower.

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Breaking forecast 02/06/2018

Breaking forecast 02/06/2018

"Black Monday" in the US market mixed markets' cards.

On Monday, the main event for the markets was the strongest fall in the US stock market.

The main US indices fell by -4 - 4.5% - a huge drop for one day. Together with the strong fall of Friday, the overall decline is -6 to -6.5%

The Dow fell 1175 points on the day - the strongest fall in points for the day in the history of the index.

The fall of the US market took place at record volumes: 50-60% higher than average volumes on major exchanges. Undoubtedly, February 5, 2018 became a "Black Monday".

This caused a demand for a review of positions in all markets - a strong correction took place - a fall in the euro and pound.

Nevertheless, our positions are the same:

We sell the euro from 1.2330 stop at 1.2375 profit at 1.2200

Buy order at 1.2525 so far but it is possible at the emergence of new closing levels.

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Breaking forecast 02/05/2018

Breaking forecast 02/05/2018

EURUSD: Prepare for an upward impulse

On Friday, a report on employment in the US was published:

The number of new jobs is + 200, 000, higher than the forecast.

Unemployment stood at 4.1% - unemployment at the lowest levels since 2007.

Before this, the Fed issued a statement on the state of the US economy, which increased its attention on inflation.

In general, the news was in favor of the dollar - except for a strong decline in the US stock market on Friday -2% - but there the correction was brewing a very long time.

Nevertheless, the euro fell slightly.

We still expect the euro to continue to rising.

Buy for the breakthrough 1.2525, stop at 1.2480, target is 1.2640.

Alternative: Sell at the break down of 1.2330.

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