Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 7, 2020

The pair traded downward on Friday and once again tested the support level 1.1793 (white thick line) and then rolled back up. Today, the price may resume its downward movement. Nothing is expected for economic calendar news. A narrow market is expected due to the day off in the US.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move downward from the level of 1.1840 (closing of the Friday's daily candle) with the target at the support level 1.1798 (white thick line). A test of this level may lead to a continuation of the downward trend with the target at the level of 1.1745 located at the lower border of the Bollinger Band indicator (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - down.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move downward with the target at the support level 1.1798 (white thick line). A test of this level may lead to a continuation of the downward trend with the next target at the level of 1.1745 located at the lower border of the Bollinger Band indicator (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is, after testing the support level of 1.1798, the price may move upward with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dashed line).

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Trading idea for EUR/USD

Good data on the US labor market, that is, an increase in new jobs and drop in unemployment rate, led to a jump in demand for the US dollar, which accordingly, resulted in a decline in the EUR/USD pair.

Its downward movement even formed a pin bar on the daily chart:

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So, in order for the pair to turn around and resume trading upwards in the market, the best option is to set up long positions and follow this scheme:

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Since the pair has formed an Elliot Wave with which wave "A" is the closing of last Friday's American session, target profit will be a double top at 1.18637. Such will be relevant until the quotes break out of 1.18.

This follows the classic and trusted Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. However, of course, controlling the risk should not be left out, so as to avoid reducing or losing profit.

Good luck!

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Strong nonfarm will lead to a strong dollar, while euro may weaken sharply because of ECB's meeting; Overview of USD, GBP,

The US labor market report for August was strong. There were 1.371 million new jobs, and although this figure is slightly worse than forecasted, growth exceeded forecasts for all other key limits. The average hourly wage growth remained at the July level of 4.7%, which is a strong indicator that allows us to hope for rising inflation. The average length of the working week and the share of the labor force in the total population increased, while unemployment fell to 8.4%, which was significantly better than the forecast 9.8%.

A strong employment report increases the probability that the Fed will refrain from introducing new monetary stimulus at its September 16-17 meeting. If such an idea rules the markets, and the reasons for that after Friday have grown noticeably, the dollar will receive a clear impulse to grow in the next 10 days.

The CFTC report did not bring any surprises in positioning for major currencies. After the speech of J.Powell could have expected that investors would react by increasing the short position on the dollar, everything turned out to be more complicated. The total short position of the dollar (excluding gold contracts) declined by 613 million, which is not much, but the main thing here is that there was no sell-off of the dollar. Long positions on gold and the yen have increased significantly, so it is logical to expect a rise in demand for protective assets in the next few weeks.

EUR/USD

Following August decline in consumer inflation in the Eurozone to -0.2% y/y, it turned out that this decline has deeper reasons than first thought – retail sales in July fell by 1.3% instead of the expected growth of 1.5%, with an annual growth of only 0.4%, which is clearly not enough to have any reason to hope for a recovery in consumer demand.

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The fair target price for the euro continues to decline. According to the CFTC report, the volume of long contracts fell by 2.030 billion, but in other limits, such as the demand for securities, the euro is beginning to lose its accumulated advantage.

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The position of the ECB members before the September 10 meeting is becoming more specific – the ECB does not want to calmly watch the further growth of the euro. All week, ECB officials have been giving appropriate comments, and now the main intrigue is whether the ECB is ready to take any steps to reduce the exchange rate on September 10, or whether it will limit itself to promises to soften its policy at the next meeting. At the very least, a decline can be expected in the forecast for inflation and GDP growth rates, which will lead to the euro's inability to go above 1.20.

Judging by the profit taking on EUR/USD, investors are inclined to change the ECB's policy as early as Thursday. Thus, the euro may move below the support of 1.1780/90 before ECB's meeting with the goal of 1.1695, followed by a downward reversal.

GBP/USD

A weak dollar and a good pace of recovery in the UK economy pushed the GBP/USD pair to a two-year high, but the yield spread is still not going to work in favor of the pound, and it looks like there is not much chance of positive dynamics.

According to the CFTC report, the net long position of the pound increased by 68 million and reached the level of 0.568 billion compared to 29.3 billion in euros.

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On September 8, Brexit negotiations will resume, but judging by the statements of numerous insiders, the positions of the parties have not undergone any changes, which means there will be no progress this week. It was also reported this morning that the UK government is planning a new bill aimed at canceling key parts of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. If the insider is confirmed, the pound will get an additional bearish impulse.

The nearest support is 1.3090/3110, there is a high possibility that we will move to it in two days.

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Dollar hovered around due to conflicting factors. A local decline in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs is expected

Friday's US employment data showed how difficult it is for the US labor market to recover, and hence the country's economy. The relentless storm of the pandemic shows a surge of growth, which forces local businesses to be inactive in hiring new workers due to the decline in business activity.

What happened?

Labor market data presented on Friday turned out to be worse than expected. The number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in August increased by 1.731 million against the forecast of 1.4 million and the July value of 1.734 million, which was revised downward from 1.764 million.

In view of this negative news, the US stock market continued its decline, which began on Thursday, but the dollar did not rise or fall. In fact, following the results of Friday's trading, it slightly declined to the basket of the main ones and even the strongest growth in the yield of US Treasuries could not support its rate. Therefore, the benchmark yield of 10-year Treasuries rose from 0.628% to 0.721% by the end of Friday's trading.

What should we expect?

In our opinion, the dollar's behavior can be explained by the influence of multi-directional factors. On the one hand, it was really supported last week on the wave of its strong technical oversold. Investors were closing positions in major currencies that were significantly overbought against the dollar. This primarily applies to the euro, British pound, yen and the Australian dollar. However, the Canadian and New Zealand dollars also declined by the end of the week. On the other hand, a sharp rise in the yield on US Treasury government bonds supported the US currency, preventing it from collapsing on the wave of negative employment data.

Given the impact of the new monetary policy, which was previously announced by J. Powell, the dollar has no prospects for growth, but it's still oversold against major currencies, which will hold back its strengthening. Thus, we believe that the overall picture of the past week will continue in the coming week. The dollar may rise further against commodity currencies, but unlikely against the euro, pound, franc, and yen.

Today is a public holiday in the US, Labor Day. Due to this, local markets will be closed, so some activity will only be expected during the European trading session.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating above the level of 0.7270. A decline below this level will lead to a further decline to 0.7195.

The NZD/USD pair is also consolidating on the wave of the US holiday. Thus, we believe that if it declines below the level of 0.6685, it will fall to 0.6650.

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Dollar growth poses threat to the gold market

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Dollar poses huge threat to the gold market this coming week, warns market analysts. This is because last Friday, dollar rose amid strong data on the US labor market, that is, almost 1.4 million new jobs in August, which, accordingly, resulted in a drop in unemployment rate by 8.4%, and an increase in wages by 0.4%.

For some, this recent surge in dollar demand is not a big surprise. The dollar has already "matured", so it is high time for the currency to "move right now."

Thus, Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that although he expects gold to continue to consolidate in the market in anticipation of more information on potential stimulus measures, good economic data in the United States could significantly affect these expectations.

"Falling unemployment in the US makes it less likely that the Fed will deliver a dovish rhetoric this month," Button said. "Accordingly, the demand for the US dollar will remain, and such will limit the growth of gold."

However on Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that even though the US employment report for August was good, highly flexible monetary policy will be maintained for a very long time, probably for many years to support recovery after the crisis and recession.

"I would say that today's employment report is good. However, we think that the economy will need low interest rates to support activity over the long term," Powell said.

With regards to Europe and the EUR/USD pair, while improved economic data will provide some support to the US dollar, most analysts warn investors to pay attention to external factors, in particular to the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting due this September 10.

This is largely due to the strong price movement in dollar and gold after ECB member, Philip Lane, said that the euro's strength against the US dollar matters.

"The ECB needs to push inflation so that it can take additional stimulus measures," Bill Baruch of Blue Line Futures said. "This will push the euro down and the dollar up," he added.

Meanwhile, economists at Nomura (Japan's largest brokerage) said that they are not confident that the ECB would yet respond to disappointing inflationary pressures, but if they did, it would have been stimulus measures rather than rate cuts since the ECB already has zero interest rates.

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, also supported this claim, saying that he expects the ECB to introduce additional stimulus measures, and that such is only a matter of time.

As for other banks, the Bank of Canada will hold a monetary policy meeting on September 9, during which the central bank may decide to follow the footsteps of the US Fed and announce a change in inflation targeting.

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Control Zones for USDCAD on 09/07/20

The movement trend going up remains a priority because the pair failed to gain a foothold below the wcz a 1.3046 - 1.3034. The test of this zone led to an increase in demand. The first target of the upward movement is the maximum of the previous week. The main target is the weekly short-term target of 1.3248-1.3225.

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The downward movement trend last Friday compensated the latest increase but the "absorption" pattern of the daily level was not formed.

To cancel the upward movement, today's trading needs to be closed at below the WCZ a. In this case, it will open the way for the resumption of bearish momentum where the target will be at 1.2961 level.

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Daily Control Zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

Weekly Control Zone. An area formed by important marks of the futures market that changes several times a year.

Monthly Control Zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 7, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair did not move much since the Friday close and keeps hovering around the level of 1.1822, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement on the weekly time frame chart. This is the key technical level that has been violated before, but the rally did not last for long and the price keeps coming back to it anyway. This kind of a price action might indicate a deeper corrective cycle to come soon as the up trend looks exhausted for now. Any violation of the level of 1.1696 will be the firs indication of a correction. For now however, the key technical support is seen at the level of 1.1790 and the nearest technical resistance is located at 1.1865.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2178

WR2 - 1.2088

WR1 - 1.1949

Weekly Pivot - 1.1865

WS1 - 1.1723

WS2 - 1.1635

WS3 - 1.1494

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 7, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has dropped to the level of 1.3175, which is below the 61% Fibonacci retracement seen at the level of 1.3215. All the bounces are shallow and being used to open more sell orders. The last bounce was capped at the level of 1.3283 and since then the market retraced more than a half of it. The next key technical support is seen at the level of 1.3183 - 1.3169. Any violation of this zone will open the road towards the next support seen at the level of 1.3121. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3726

WR2 - 1.3600

WR1 - 1.3421

Weekly Pivot - 1.3292

WS1 - 1.3102

WS2 - 1.2995

WS3 - 1.2802

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, the recent rally form the multi-year lows seen at the level of 1.1404 has been successful and the trend might be reversing. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1404.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 7, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

The Australian Government Senate Special Committee on Financial Technology and Regulatory Technologies published a report on the project citing blockchain technology more than 50 times.

The report responds to Australia's first recession in 30 years as a result of COVID-19, which was confirmed by negative growth in the June quarter announced on September 2.

The document contains numerous recommendations on how a nation can adopt technology and become globally competitive, as told by Senator Andrew Bragg, chairman of the committee. He also added:

"I hope this periodic report can be seen as a series of successes (...) Most fintech and regtech projects will be built primarily on blockchain technology or will benefit heavily in the next 10 years."

Power Ledger co-founder and executive chairman Dr. Jemma Green said the ICO raised more than $ 26 billion, but Australia captured less than one percent of that value. By introducing new tax laws, she explained, the country could seize the opportunity to capture "a bigger piece of the 26 billion dollar cake", which would employ tens of thousands of people.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has bounced slightly from the level of $309.73, which was the low made during the last wave down from $487.70. The market has been capped at the level of $355.24 and is turning down again. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $362.60, $369.37 and $375.62. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $305.20. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down might be just around the corner.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $614.65

WR2 - $551.18

WR1 - $435.26

Weekly Pivot - $373.02

WS1 - $258.25

WS2 - $194.29

WS3 - $78.24

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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GBP/USD intraday high and low, September 07, 2020

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The intraday high and low from the CBDR (Central Bank Dealer Range) are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market but sometimes they can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 during the high volatility in the market. Here's are today's levels:

STDV 10 - 1.3551.

STDV 9 - 1.3523.

STDV 8 - 1.3495.

STDV 7 - 1.3467.

STDV 6 - 1.3439.

STDV 5 - 1.3411.

STDV 4 - 1.3383.

STDV 3 - 1.3355.

STDV 2 - 1.3327.

STDV 1 - 1.3299.

CBDR - 1.3271.

==================

CBDR - 1.3243.

STDV 1 - 1.3215.

STDV 2 - 1.3187.

STDV 3 - 1.3159.

STDV 4 - 1.3131.

STDV 5 - 1.3103.

STDV 6 - 1.3075.

STDV 7 - 1.3047.

STDV 8 - 1.3019.

STDV 9 - 1.2991.

STDV 10 - 1.2963.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.3075, 1.3159, 1.3327, 1.3411, 1.3494, & the previous day high 1.3318 with the previous day low 1.3175.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD intraday high and low, September 07, 2020

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The intraday high and low from the Flout Range are usually formed at STDV 2-STDV 4 in the normal condition market but sometimes they can reach the STDV 5-STDV 6 during the high volatility in the market. Here are the today's levels:

STDV 10 - 1.1915.

STDV 9 - 1.1908.

STDV 8 - 1.1901.

STDV 7 - 1.1894.

STDV 6 - 1.1887.

STDV 5 - 1.1880.

STDV 4 - 1.1873.

STDV 3 - 1.1866.

STDV 2 - 1.1859.

STDV 1 - 1.1852.

FLOUT - 1.1845.

==================

FLOUT - 1.1830.

STDV 1 - 1.1822.

STDV 2 - 1.1814.

STDV 3 - 1.1806.

STDV 4 - 1.1798.

STDV 5 - 1.1790.

STDV 6 - 1.1782.

STDV 7 - 1.1774.

STDV 8 - 1.1766.

STDV 9 - 1.1758.

STDV 10 - 1.1750.

Pay attention to the level of confluence between today's & yesterday range at 1.1782, 1.1859, 1.1915 and the previous day high 1.1865 with the previous day low 1.1781.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 7, 2020

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We continue to look for more downside pressure here. However, we expect a minor rally close to resistance in the 141.44 - 141.54 area before the pair declines to minor resistance at 140.09. If it breaks above this level, it will confirm renewed downside pressure to the ideal target near 138.35

R3: 141.82

R2: 141.44

R1: 141.10

Pivot: 140.55

S1: 140.25

S2: 140.10

S3: 139.85

Trading recommendation:

We will re-buy GBP near 138.35

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 7, 2020

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EUR/JPY has entered a sideways consolidation just as we expected. We will likely see a final spike to just above 126.02 to complete this sideways consolidation and the final leg lower in wave C/ and 2/ close to the ideal target near 124.41. Once the correction in wave 2/ is completed, a new impulsive rally to 129.28 and closer to 135.46 is expected.

R3: 126.32

R2: 126.12

R1: 126.02

Pivot: 125.66

S1: 125.55

S2: 125.25

S3: 124.90

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR near 124.41

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 7, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

British multinational security company BAE Systems and the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, have published a report revealing how cybercriminals launder cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrency laundering is still relatively small compared to the massive amounts of money laundered by traditional methods such as bank transfers, according to a Follow the Money study.

But there are a few notable examples and the report delves into the money laundering methods employed by the Lazarus Group, a well-known hacking gang sponsored by the North Korean regime.

Lazarus typically steals cryptocurrencies from an exchange and then starts relaying transactions through various exchanges using what is called a "tiered technique."

Hackers hire East Asian helpers who receive some of the stolen funds to help with their laundry. These facilitators are transferring cryptocurrencies to multiple addresses they own to "obscure the origins of the funds," the study found.

Facilitators transfer some of the funds received via newly added bank accounts that are linked to their stock exchange account - this allows you to convert the cryptocurrency into a fiat currency. Other stolen funds can be transferred in Bitcoin to prepaid gift cards that can be used on other exchanges to purchase additional Bitcoins.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has bounced slightly from the level of $9,865 which was the low made during the last wave down from $12,004. The market is hovering around the level of $10,000 again as this is very important psychological level for market participants. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,248, $10 343 and $10,430 and the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $9,704. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum remains weak and negative, so another wave down might be just around the corner.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,397

WR2 - $12,625

WR1 - $11,243

Weekly Pivot - $10,566

WS1 - $9,071

WS2 - $8,375

WS3 - $6,978

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic correction are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,463 and $10,000.

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Control zones for NZDUSD on 09/07/2020

The downward movement of the pair remains a priority when building daily trading plans. While the pair is trading below the WCZ 1/2 0.6746-0.6739, the probability of updating the monthly minimum is 75%. The main target of the fall is the weekly short-circuit 0.6636-0.6621.

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Working within the framework of a corrective medium-term fall implies holding already open sales and searching for patterns for a new opening of short positions.

An alternative model will be developed if today's close of trading occurs above the WCZ 1/2. This will allow you to abandon the short position and consider buying the instrument. The main goal will be a monthly maximum.

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DCZ - daily control zone. A zone formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

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Control zones for GBPUSD on 09/07/2020

Today's opening of the European session may be decisive for the weekly movement. If the opening occurs under WCZ 1/2 1.3265-1.3244, then selling will come to the fore. The downward movement's target will be the weekly CZ 1.3049-1.3006.

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The work in the downward direction may become the main one for the entire current month, as the engulfing pattern of the weekly level has formed.

To resume growth will require opening or closing of European trading above WCZ 1/2. This will allow us to consider patterns for buying an instrument. The first growth target will be the monthly high.

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DSC - day control zone. An area formed by important data from the futures market that changes several times a year.

WCZ - weekly control zone. An area formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

MCZ - monthly control zone. A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on September 7? Plan for opening and

The hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

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On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair has been trading in the same narrow side channel for the past two days. Thus, as of Monday morning, the technical picture of the pair has not changed. Despite the downward movement of the price (extremely weak), the MACD indicator has not yet formed a sell signal. If it turns down in the near future, novice traders may even try to work out this signal with the goal of the lower line of the side channel (indicated in the illustration). However, it should be understood that trading in the flat is not the most pleasant and convenient activity. However, you can earn about 30-40 points on this signal. Then everything will depend on which border of the side channel the price will go through. If through the upper one, we can expect a resumption of movement to the level of 1.1903 or slightly higher. If through the lower one, we can expect a further fall to the level of 1.1700. In sum, these two levels also represent the boundaries of a side channel.

On September 7, novice traders will have absolutely nothing to pay attention to. The calendar of macroeconomic events is empty. Approximately the same picture will be tomorrow. Except for the second-quarter Eurozone GDP report in the second estimate. Thus, the first two trading days of the new week can be as calm and low-volatility as possible. On the other hand, the pair has been trading actively in recent months and it is not based on macroeconomic statistics. On Friday, for example, three major reports on Nonfarm Payrolls, wages, and the unemployment rate were published in America, however, the market reaction was extremely weak. Actually, it fits into the narrow side channel, which was discussed above. The fundamental background remains far from the most attractive for the US dollar, so perhaps market participants will not need any statistics to resume active trading at the beginning of the week. In the coming days, it is possible that there will be news from Donald Trump, on the "coronavirus", on the US-China confrontation, on the adoption of a new package of financial assistance to the American unemployed and businesses. There is a lot of potential news. Thus, we recommend that you determine the activity/non-activity of the market by the strength of the pair's movement and by finding quotes inside a small side channel.

As of September 7, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Buying a pair at this time is not recommended for novice traders, since the pair is fixed below the upward trend line, thus, the trend is now more downward. However, if the price manages to get out of the side channel through its upper border, then the upward movement can resume and you can consider options for long positions. The goal is 1.1903-1.1912.

2) Sales now still look more relevant. First, you can try to work out the lower line of the side channel if the MACD indicator turns down. The goal is 1.1790. Secondly, you can try to work out the lower limit of the senior side channel - around the level of 1.1700, if the price gets out of the small channel through its lower border. Thus, now novice traders just need to wait for the formation of new signals, and the trading strategy is defined. The main thing is to remember that today trading can be calm and weakly volatile.

What's on the chart:

Price support and resistance levels – levels that are targeted when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which way it is preferable to trade now.

Up/down arrows – indicate when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.

MACD indicator(10,20,3) – a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend constructions (channels, trend lines).

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 7, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro fell by 80 points last Friday as US employment data was released, but the bulls tried to win back their losses when the session was about to end, and so it closed the day with a black candle of 13 points. The balance indicator line stopped the decline on the daily chart.

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Today is a public holiday in Canada and the United States, so we have to postpone the attack on the 1.1720 target level near the MACD line for another day. The general downward trend continues, created by the triple divergence on the Marlin oscillator.

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The price is below the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator created the convergence, which warns of the continuation of the sideways movement today. The main range of movement is represented by the extreme levels from Friday: 1.1781-1.1865, but the price may slightly go beyond these boundaries.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on September 7, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling attacked the 38.2% Fibonacci level from above on Friday, but did not settle in the area below it. Stock market players did not get ahead of the events and left due to today's holiday in the US and Canada. The price ended the day near the level it opened the day with, and thus the situation and the tasks remain the same - to settle below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1.3212) and continue to decline to the target levels 1.3120 and 1.3026, which is also determined by the Fibonacci levels: 50.0% and 61.8%.

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The price settled below the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the downward trend is still present. We look forward to the British pound's decline in the long-term.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 7, 2020

AUD/USD

Friday's US labor data was a good reason for the Australian dollar to attack the technical support of the MACD line on the daily chart. But the dollar did not gain much, since the United States will be celebrating a public holiday on Monday (today) and some of the sell positions were closed. But the general downward market sentiment continues.

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The Australian dollar needs to settle below the August 19 peak at 0.7277, which will automatically mean settling below the MACD line on the daily timeframe. The bears will be aiming for the August 3 low of 0.7075.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price is progressing under the MACD line, that is, in a downward trend in the short-term. This trend will strengthen as the price settles below 0.7277. After overcoming last session's low of 0.7223, it is possible to open short positions while aiming for 0.7075. A more aggressive strategy allows you to open positions after consolidating below 0.7277.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 7, 2020

USD/JPY

Despite the upbeat US employment data on Friday, stock indices continued their inertial fall after Thursday's collapse of more than 3%. The Dow Jones lost 0.56%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.81%. As a result, the USD/JPY pair gained only 6 points amid the dollar's growth. The price channel line around 106.60 was not reached for the second time.

Today, the price will make its third attempt to reach 106.60, but it's a holiday in the United States and therefore, the expected growth is again in doubt.

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The price is above the balance (red) and MACD (blue) indicator lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is in the upper half of its area, and all these characteristics indicate that the price will increase in the short term.

An alternative scenario may reverse when the price settles below the MACD line, below 106.15. In this case, the price could fall to the 195.60 level, the September 1 low.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 7. COT report. Nonfarm Payrolls report could not spoil the mood

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD pair traded almost identical to the euro currency on September 4. The pair's quotes stood in one place in the morning and practically did not move from it in the afternoon, a pullback to the downside was made, followed by a similar upward pull. As a result, the pound/dollar pair ended both day and week between the Kijun-sen and Senkou span B lines, which only confuses the current technical picture, as it does not allow us to clearly assume which direction it will move. On the one hand, the downtrend is visible to the naked eye, but it is visible on the hourly chart. The current downward movement does not even pull a correction on higher timeframes. Thus, as in the case of the euro, we believe that the dollar's potential for growth is very limited at this time.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels are directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, thus, we can conclude that the downward trend is weak, but continues to persist. The latest Commitments of traders (COT) report for the British pound turned out to be even more unexpected than the one for the euro. If non-commercial traders were already shorting the euro, the same category of traders continued to buy the pound. In total, professional traders opened 5,500 new Buy-contracts and 3,000 new Sell-contracts during the reporting week (August 26 - September 1). Thus, their net position even increased by 2,500, according to the new COT report. In principle, such data perfectly describes what is happening in the foreign exchange market, since the British currency continued to grow during all five trading days included in the report. The pound has been depreciating in the period from September 1 to the present day, but the latest COT report shows that there are no hints that professional traders have stopped looking towards the pound (unlike the euro). Therefore, we can not find a correlation between the two main competitors of the US dollar at this time, although both major currency pairs have been moving almost identically in recent days based on the COT reports.

The fundamentals of Friday, September 4, mainly came down to the Nonfarm Payrolls report. We already mentioned in the euro article that, in general, the package of macroeconomic data from across the ocean turned out to be quite optimistic. The unemployment rate fell while wages rose. The Nonfarm Payrolls report turned out to be worse than forecasted, but not much. 1.4 million new jobs outside the agricultural sector were predicted, but in reality, 1.371 million were created. There was only a 29,000 difference. Therefore, we can not conclude whether this report was weak or considered a failure. Therefore, it should not have spoiled the general picture of the state of affairs. Nevertheless, after the US dollar slightly strengthened, it began to fall in price anyway. It had an excellent chance of growth on this day. Consequently, the bears still see no good reason to sell the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pair. The general fundamental background in America remains rather complicated and, most likely, it does not allow the US dollar to show confident growth.

We have two trading ideas for September 7:

1) Buyers continue to be in the shadows. The quotes of the pound/dollar pair have settled below the ascending channel, thus, it is not relevant to buy the pound at this time. So far, there are no prerequisites for reviving the upward trend, and the bears managed to overcome the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines in half. Thus, the bulls are not going to return to the market, and it is recommended to only consider buying when the price has settled above the Kijun-sen line. (1.3328) with the target of the resistance level 1.3451. Take Profit in this case will be about 100 points.

2) Bears continue to push slowly, so short positions remain relevant with the target of the support area of 1.3157-1.3183, but you are advised to reject this target very carefully, as sellers show their weakness day after day. Take Profit in this case will be no more than 50 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on September 7. COT report. Major players started to close long trades in the

EUR/USD 1H

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The hourly timeframe on September 4 showed that the euro/dollar pair reached the support level of 1.1803 for the second time, unsuccessfully trying to overcome it as it did the first time, and then it began to retreat to the upside by the end of the trading day. Thus, last Friday's trading was already in a very narrow sideways range even without an intraday trend. The overall technical picture remains as vague and incomprehensible as it did in the last month and a half. On the one hand, we can say that the pair continues to be flat despite the fact that quotes have gone above the upper limit of the side channel twice at 1.17-1.19. At the same time, the pair spends most of its time within the specified range. And since this range is only 200 points, the pair is now moving flat. Therefore, we suggest that you continue to rely on the flat when making any trading decisions.

EUR/USD 1H

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The 15-minute timeframe shows that the higher linear regression channel is the best way to show that even in the short term, the pair is moving inside the sideways channel. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which, let me remind you, comes out with a three-day delay and only covers the dates from August 26 to September 1, unexpectedly showed a decrease in the net position for the "non-commercial" category of traders. Let me remind you that non-commercial traders are the most important category of traders who enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit. So, non-commercial traders reduced Buy positions and opened Sell contracts during the reporting week. The number of Buy positions decreased by almost 11,000, while the number of Sell positions increased by 3,000. Thus, the net position immediately decreased by 14,000. Take note that the euro did not really get cheaper during the reporting week, which is covered by the latest COT report. The euro strengthened during all five trading days, and only started falling on September 1, which we can now describe as being provoked by professional traders and their sell positions. The euro was falling after September 1, so the new COT report may signal an even greater decrease in net positions. And in this case, it will confirm that the mood of non-commercial traders is really changing to a downward one.

Three important reports were published in America on September 4, Friday, which could have an impact on the euro/dollar pair's movement. They could have, but in the end they practically did not. Looking ahead, the US dollar initially rose in price by 60 points when these data were released, and then it fell by the same amount. In fact, markets did not react. Or it could be called highly mediated or indirect. Nevertheless, there was enough positive news from America. The unemployment rate fell by the end of August to 8.4%, while a broader measure of unemployment known as the U6 suggests the "real" rate was 14.2%, and the average hourly wages rose by 0.4%, although analysts had predicted zero growth. Therefore, the US dollar had an excellent opportunity to continue growing, but failed to do so again. Even the Nonfarm Payrolls report could not prevent this.

We have two trading ideas for September 4:

1) Bulls continue to keep their finger on the pulse of the market and feel ready to return at any time to start new buy positions for the euro. At least the current drop in quotes is very weak, and the price has not yet approached the important level of 1.1700, which we still consider as the lower border of the side channel. You can buy the pair in small volumes in case it settles above the Kijun-sen line with targets at 1.1961 and 1.2020. Take Profit in this case will be from 35 to 100 points.

2) Bears got the opportunity to start forming a new downward trend, as they managed to gain a foothold below the Senkou Span B line (1.1882), but so far they clearly do not want to use it. Thus, for now, we can recommend selling the pair while aiming for the support area of 1.1705-1.1729, if there is a consolidation below the 1.1803 level. In this case, the potential Take Profit is 50-60 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 7? Getting ready for Monday session

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD currency pair spent the whole day inside a75-point corrective side channel on Friday, September 4. This is not small for an intraday channel, but then again it can also be considered as somewhat small. The main thing is that there was no trend movement on Friday. In general, the trend remained downward, so novice traders could open short positions, as the MACD indicator moved down twice during the day. Unfortunately, the first sell signal turned out to be false, as the indicator swiftly moved back up, and the second one was not false, but sharp, the price simply started falling too quickly and it turned out to be too short-lived. In the first case, traders could limit themselves to minimal losses, since the price could not continue to move up after a false signal. In the second case, traders had to open trades after the quotes fell by 50 points near the first target for the day – 1.1805. However, we warned in Friday's morning review that sharp price reversals are possible once important US macroeconomic data are released, and we recommended that you conduct the most cautious trading at this time, do not forget about Stop Loss orders or leave the market altogether. Therefore, in general, Friday should not have brought big losses to traders.

As for fundamental events, all the most interesting things happened again in the United States. Economic factors are considered the most important in terms of the degree of influence on any currency's movement. However, they have clearly faded into the background in recent months (during the coronavirus pandemic). Thus, the macroeconomic reports from the US were very important, but at the same time they caused a rather weak and not entirely logical reaction from the market. For example, the US unemployment rate fell by almost 2% in August, which is a lot. The hidden unemployment rate fell by 2.3%, while the average wages rose by 0.4% m/m. All these are positive aspects for both the American economy and the dollar. However, we only saw a short-term rise in the dollar, and then it immediately fell. The Nonfarm Payrolls report turned out to be slightly worse than forecasted, but not at all critical. We would even say that it was in line with forecasts, therefore, it could not cause disappointment among market participants. Thus, the entire package of data was positive, but did not result in a significant rise from the dollar.

Macroeconomic data from the EU or the US will not be published on Monday, September 7. Thus, the macroeconomic background does not have any influence on this day, so the pair can be traded in a very narrow range with low volatility. Friday's movement may extend until Monday. We recommend novice traders to wait for the price to leave the side channel and only then should you resume trading.

Possible scenarios for September 7:

1) Novice traders are advised to not consider buy positions at this time, since the pair has settled below the upward trend line, so the trend has now changed to a downward trend. There are currently no signals or technical patterns that support the upward trend. Therefore, buyers need to wait for trend lines or channels that would show an upward trend.

2) Sell positions continue to look more relevant, but the pair spent the last two days in a side channel. Therefore, novice traders are advised to wait until this correction is completed and also wait for the price to leave the channel (shown in the illustration) through its lower line. This may not happen on Monday, since market movements are usually weak on this day. However, we recommend trading lower after the price settles below 1.1789.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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