Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for July 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index has dropped to a potential support level now, around 94.40/50 levels. Please note that the corrective drop has reached the 50% retracement of the previous rally from 94.10 through 94.90 levels respectively. Also looking at the overall wave structure, the US Dollar Index looks to be carving out its final wave (5) on a larger time frame, as a potential ending diagonal (not shown here). If the above wave count holds to be true, the US Dollar Index should be looking to rally from here and reach above 96.00 levels before turning lower sharply. Please note that the last leg rally would be a thrust rally and push prices very quickly to new highs.

Trading plan:

Remain long with a tight stop below 94.00 and targeting 96.10

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events left for the rest of the day.

Good luck!

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 30, 2018

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why the bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for a valid SELL entry.

The quick bearish decline took place towards 0.6800 where a false bearish breakdown occurred. This allowed temporary bearish movement to occur towards 0.6680. However, the pair failed to maintain enough bearish momentum.

On July 7, evident bullish rejection pushed the NZD/USD pair above 0.6820 again. This was followed by a recent bullish reversal pattern (123 pattern) which enhances the bullish side of the market.

Recent signs of bullish weakness were manifested on the chart. The bulls are failing to maintain enough bullish momentum above 0.6820.

Bullish fixation above 0.6820 should be maintained in order to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6900 and 0.6980.

Trade Recommendations:

The price zone 0.6750-0.6800 still constitutes a demand zone to be considered for a valid BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6820 is needed to provide enough bullish momentum towards 0.6900 then probably 0.6980.

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BITCOIN Analysis for July 30, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite corrective after having an impulsive break above $8,000 as continuing the bullish momentum with the target towards $10,000 in the coming days. Though Bitcoin has been quite optimistic and the bearish momentum recently encountered was the part of the trend play as retrace, the price is expected to push higher. Though after the impulsive bullish pressure, the price has been quite indecisive for a few days and even today the price is a bit bearish but not quite with a definite pressure. In this case, the price is expected to correct itself a bit more as the dynamic level of 20 EMA hold the price and push it as support to a higher price point like $10,000 in the future. As the price remains above $6,500 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 8,000, 6,500

RESISTANCE: 10,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences as of July 30. A small pullback for the European currency

4h

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart reversed in favor of the euro and fixed over the correction level of 38.2% to 1.1639. As a result, on July 30, the growth progress can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 50.0% at 1.1680. The cut-off of quotes from the Fibo level of 50.0% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop towards the correction level of 38.2%.Fixation of the rate under the Fibo level of 38.2% can be similarly interpreted as a turn in favor of the US currency and expect a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% at 1.1590.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of June 14, 2018 and June 21, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator still allows the expected growth of quotations to the correctional level of 76.4% at 1.1789. n general, the pair tightly stuck between correction levels of 76.4% and 100.0%. The rebound of quotes from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a return to the correction level of 100.0% at 1.1553. Fixation of the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of further falling quotations in the direction of the next correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries of November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be supported with the target of 1.1680 and the Stop Loss level under the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close above the Fibo level of 1.1639.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair will be possible with the target of 1.1590, if the close is below the Fibo level of 38.2% and the Stop Loss order above the correction level of 1.1639.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 30, 2018

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Daily OutlookIn April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish pressure was initiated this week.

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Conservative traders should be waiting for a bullish breakout above 1.1750 as a valid bullish signal. Bullish targets would be located around 1.1850 and 1.1990.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 30, 2018

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Overview:

Pivot point: 0.9857

The USD/CHF pair is still moving above the pivot point of the price 0.9857 since last week. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci and 61.8%). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0050.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 30, 2018

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Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has managed to reach close to the 1.1700 mark now which is 0.618 retracement of the previous boundary. As projected on the above chart, the pair should face resistance here and reverse lower. Looking at the wave structure, EURUSD has carved out a potential triangle as wave (4) of the larger degree at 1.1750 levels earlier. If this wave count holds true, prices should ideally stay below 1.1750/85 levels going forward. Once the triangle line of support breaks down, i.e around 1.1600 levels, for now, the drop towards 1.1350 levels shall be confirmed and drop should accelerate. On the flip side, if prices breakout on the north side of potential triangle resistance, then the drop would be delayed and we might see a flat unfolding as wave (4).

Trading plan:

Remain short for now, stop above 1.1780, the target is 1.1350.

Fundamental outlook:

Watch out for the EUR German Consumer Price Index today at 0800 AM EST

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 30, 2018

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Overview:

The major resistance of the AUD/USD pair is seen at the level of 0.7474. The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. But, the price rebounded from the bottom of 0.7348 to trade around the spot of 0.7474 again. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7474, 0.7513 and 0.7554. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474/0.7513 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7474 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7474, the market will decline further to 0.7302 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7257 so as to test the daily support 3. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7550, then this scenario may become invalidated.

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GBP/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

GBP/USD is approaching support at 1.3082 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support) where we expect price to bounce up to its resistance at 1.3213 (61.8% & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 3.75% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

GBP/USD is approaching its support where a bounce is expected.

Buy above 1.3082. Stop loss at 1.3010. Take profit at 1.3213.

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EUR/USD Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce!

EUR/USD is approaching support at 1.1620 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizotnal overlap support) where we expect to see a bounce up to its resistance at 1.1711 (76.4 Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). We do have to be cautious of the intermediate resistance at 1.1663 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its support at 3% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

EUR/USD is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy entry 1.1620. Stop loss 1.1573. Take profit at 1.1711.

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#theforexarmy #forexsigns #forexsignals #forexfamily #forexgroup #forexhelp #forexcourse #forextrade #forexdaily #forexmoney #forexentourage #forextrading #forex #forexhelptrading #forexscalping #babypips #forexfactory #forexlife #forextrader #financialfreedom #daytrader #scalper #swingtrader #fx #currency #pips #technicalanalysis #forexmarket

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GBP/USD analysis for July 30, 2018

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3108. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found a potential bearish flag pattern in creation, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a breakout of the upward trendline in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward continuation. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3070 and at the price of 1.2960.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3120

R2: 1.3129

R3: 1.3137

Support levels:

S1: 1.3103

S2: 1.3095

S3: 1.3086

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Analysis of Gold for July 30, 2018

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Recently, the Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,221.25. Anyway, according to the H1 time – frame, I found breakout of upward trendline and successful re-test after the breakout, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a potential end of the upward correction (ABC flat) in the background, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $1,211.25.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,222.90

R2: $1,224.00

R3: $1,224.70

Support levels:

S1: $1,221.10

S2: $1,220.40

S3: $1,219.30

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 30, 2018

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found that price is trading inside of the trading range. I found a potential end of the downward correction in the background (abc flat), which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential bullish breakout of the channel to confirm the upward continuation. The upward targets are set at the price of $8.486 and at the price of $8.783.

Support/Resistance

$8.257 – Intraday resistance

$8.000– Intraday support

$8.486 – Objective target 1

$8.783 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2018

EUR/JPY is currently residing at the edge of 129.50 area from where it is expected to push higher again with the target towards 132.00 area in the future. JPY having straight gains since it bounced off the 132.00 area was expected to inject more bearish momentum in the pair whereas the current formation is indecisive.

As of the recent ECB Press Conference, EURO is expected to lose some momentum as the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged till Summer 2019 and Brexit impact as well as Trade War tension. Ahead of the series of economic reports to be published this week on EURO, today EURO Spanish Flash CPI report was published with slight decrease to 2.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.3% and German Prelim CPI report is yet to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1%.

Today JPY Retail Sales report is published with an increase to 1.8% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 1.7%. Despite the significant growth on the Retail Sales, JPY failed to sustain the momentum whereas EUR is currently quite impulsive with the bullish momentum.

As of the current scenario, ahead of the BOJ Policy Rate tomorrow, the pair is expected to be quite volatile but a daily close today will provide the required information for the upcoming momentum in the market whereas the JPY Unemployment Rate, BOJ Policy Rate and Monetary Policy Statement tomorrow is expected to have greater impact on the gains over JPY in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been bearish with straight daily candles pushing the price towards 129.50 area but today the impulsive bullish pressure has already engulfed a portion of previous bearish pressure which if closed above 129.50 with an impulsive bullish candle is expected to inject more bulls in the market resulting further bullish pressure in the market with target towards 132.00 area. As the price remains above 129.50 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 129.50

RESISTANCE: 132.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE AND IMPULSIVE

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for July 30, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bearish momentum after rejecting off the 113.20 with a daily close. The bearish momentum leads the price to fall towards 111.00 where the price has been corrective itself recently with a view of moving lower in the coming days.

USD having quite a tough time competing with JPY to sustain the gain it had earlier in this pair. Ahead of the NFP this week, which is expected to inject certain volatility in the pair, today USD Pending Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -0.5%.

On the other hand, ahead of the BOJ Policy Rate report to be published tomorrow, JPY is expected to gain certain momentum in the process against USD while USD is struggling without many impactful economic events. Today JPY Retail Sales report is published with an increase to 1.8% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 1.7%. Despite the positive economic reports, today JPY failed to gain the expected momentum which does indicate the sustainability USD is growing currently ahead of NFP this week.

As of the current scenario, JPY is still expected to continue its momentum lower despite the upcoming NFP report which may lead to certain spikes in the market. As JPY continues to provide better economic reports this week, it is expected continue gaining momentum against USD in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite corrective but as it is residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA while also residing below 113.20 area with a daily close, the price is expected to push lower towards the support area of 108.50-109.20 in the coming days.

RESISTANCE: 113.20

SUPPORT: 108.50 - 109.20

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 30, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite corrective and volatile recently while residing below 1.1700-50 area with a daily close. Though the bears are more impulsive compared to the bulls, this may lead to certain bearish momentum, pushing the price much lower in the coming days.

In light of the recent ECB Press Conference, EUR is expected to lose momentum as the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged till Summer 2019. Besides, EUR has been weighed down by Brexit uncertainty and trade war tension. Ahead of a series of economic reports to be published this week in the eurozone, today Spain's Flash CPI report was published with a slight decrease to 2.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.3% and Germany's Prelim CPI report is yet to be published which is expected to show an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1%.

On the other hand, as the US NFP report is to be published this week on Friday, EUR/USD is likely to trade with higher volatility this week that might lead to significant changes in the market momentum against EUR. Though USD has been quite impulsive with the recent gains in comparison to EUR, this increases the chance of the market following it more in the future. Today, US Pending Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous negative value of -0.5%.

At present, EUR proved to be quite soft today amid fresh economic report. Germany's Prelim CPI may add some value if the result comes out to be better than expected. Though there has been certain correction and volatility in the market earlier, USD is expected to gain an advantage amid optimistic forecasts of the economic reports ahead of the NFP this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite corrective while squeezing with a bearish pressure creating lower highs in the process. As connected with a trend line, the price is expected to push lower after certain retracement towards 1.17 area in the process. Having no strong Bullish Divergence evidence, the price is expected to push lower, residing below 1.17 area with a daily close and a target towards 1.1500-50 area in the coming days.

RESISTANCE: 1.1700-50

SUPPORT: 1.1500-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE

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GBP / USD. 30 July. Trading system "Regression channels". Traders are waiting for new events and meetings of the Fed and

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

Higher channel of linear regression: direction - down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction - down.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

CCI: -57.1827

On June 27, the GBP/USD currency pair almost stood at one place slightly below the moving average line. Several purple bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator alternated with blue bars, indicates a lateral correction of the instrument. There were no strong pair movements on Friday, as traders almost completely ignored US macroeconomic reports based in the EUR/USD pair review. Thus, market participants will wait for new information to open new trade transactions. This week, the meeting of the Bank of England will take place, which may raise the key rate. We believe that the British regulator will not take such a serious step now, as there are too many problems in the UK that go against the tightening of monetary policy. This is the political crisis and weak macroeconomic indicators in recent months and confusion with Brexit, which has been going on for two years. Thus, from a fundamental point of view, the initiative remains in the hands of the bears, and only Donald Trump can contribute to the British pound if he again starts fomenting trade and military conflicts in the world, as it was with the EU, China and Iran.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.3062

S2 - 1,3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.3123

R2 = 1.3184

R3 = 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

For the GBP/USD pair, bears keep the initiative in their hands. Thus, short positions are currently relevant for the purpose of 1.3062. The signal to the opening of the sell-positions will be the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator down (1-2 bars of closed blue).

Buy-positions are recommended to be opened only after the reverse fixing of the price above the removals for the Murray level "4/8" - 1.3184. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will pass into the hands of bulls, but the trend in any case is now definitely downward.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lower channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 30, 2018

Price got rejected at the resistance of 1.32 last week and remains inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. There are bullish divergence signs but no reversal confirmation yet. Key support remains at 1.30 and if broken we could see a push much lower.

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Blue lines -wedge pattern

Blue triangle -RSI triangle pattern

Black line - horizontal resistance

The first important resistance bulls must overcome is at 1.32. Next is at 1.3250. The RSI remains also inside the triangle pattern and as long as we do not see a break out, we might see the GBPUSD pair slide lower inside the wedge pattern towards 1.2850. A break above 1.3160 would be an initial bullish signal that will give hope to bulls for a confirmed breakout and reversal of trend.

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Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on Ethereum for July 30, 2018

Cryptocurrency Ethereum has been moving sideways for the last few days. Trend according to the Ichimoku cloud indicator remains bearish. Price is below the Kumo (cloud) while price may have formed a bearish flag formation.

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Red lines - bearish flag

Resistance is at 472$ while support is at 440$ by the upward sloping red channel. Bulls need to continue making higher highs and higher lows and eventually a break above the cloud resistance at 512-560$. As long as price is below the cloud, bears will be under control of the trend. Short-term resistance at 470-480$ if broken could give Ethereum a push higher towards 510$ which is the first important resistance level.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 30, 2018

The EUR/USD pair remains inside the triangle consolidation. Price held above 1.16 triangle support and bounced towards 1.1660. As we explained in last week's analysis, selling near resistance (1.1730) and buying near support (1.16) so far has paid as the risk reward ratio was in our favor with a tight stop. This will work as long as price is inside the triangle.

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Black lines - triangle pattern

Blue lines - RSI triangle pattern

Both price and the RSI are inside triangle patterns. We look for clues in the RSI to break up or down from the triangle. Short-term resistance is at 1.1725. Support remains at 1.1615. Traders with moderate aggression should better wait for a breakout before opening any position in this pair. Patience is key. The space inside the triangle is getting smaller for price to move. This week we will have a breakout.

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Analysis of GBP / USD Divergences as of July 30. Bull divergence can only help the pound a little

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart continues the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% - 1.3047 after the formation of the bearish divergence in the MACD indicator. On July 30, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator was formed, which allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the British currency and a slight increase in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% - 1.3301. Passing the quotes of the last low divergence will work in favor of the US dollar and the continuation of the fall of the pair. The consolidation of the rate under the Fibo level of 200.0% will increase the chances of falling towards the next correction level of 261.8% - 1.2638.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 1, 2018, and April 17, 2018.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the pair quotes fixed under the correction level of 38.2% - 1.3111. As a result, the fall can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 23.6% - 1.3052. Brewing divergences today is not observed in any indicator. Fixing of quotes above the level of Fibo 38.2% will work in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.3160.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from July 9, 2018 and July 19, 2018.

Recommendations for traders:

Purchases of the GBP / USD pair can be opened with a target of 1.3160 and a stop loss order under the correction level of 38.2% if a close above the Fibo level is 1.3111 (hourly chart).

The GBP / USD pair can now be traded with a target of 1.3052 and a Stop Loss order above the correction level of 38.2%, as there was a close under the Fibo level of 1.3111.

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Fractal analysis of GOLD on July 30

The forecast for July 30:

Analytical review on the scale of H1:

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According to Gold, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1250.88, 1242.62, 1239.59, 1235.48, 1229.05, 1220.96, 1218.14 and 1213.01. Here we follow the formation of the upward structure of July 19. Continued upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1229.05, here the first target is 1235.48, the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 1239.59, in the corridor 1239.59 - 1242.62 consolidation. The potential value for the top is the level of 1250.88, upon reaching this level we expect a pullback downwards.

The range 1220.96 - 1218.15 is the key support for the ascending structure, its passage by the price will have to develop the downward movement, in this case, the first target is 1213.01.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 19, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1229.20 Take profit: 1235.20

Buy: 1235.50 Take profit: 1239.40

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1218.00 Take profit: 1213.00

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 30, 2018

Gold price remains trapped inside the downward sloping wedge pattern. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below $1,235. Next support is at $1,217 and next at $1,204. Gold is vulnerable to the downside as long as price does not break out above the wedge pattern.

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Black lines - wedge pattern

Blue line - RSI resistance

Red line -RSI support

Magenta line -long-term resistance

Resistance is very important at $1,235. A break above this level could open the way for a bounce even towards $1,300. Until then trend remains bearish targeting the lower wedge pattern boundary at $1,204. Gold price is oversold with bullish divergence signs. These signs are just warnings. We need a break above $1,235 to get the reversal confirmation.

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China seems to be losing the trade war with Trump

China seems to be losing the trade war with Trump.

Experts say this: China will not survive a long struggle with the United States.

The most important move was the success of Trump last week: the US-EU agreement on reconciliation in trade. At the meeting, the agreement on the purchase of soybeans and liquefied gas from the US was made but the main issue seems to be not about this. The main thing is that the US and the EU agreed to "work together against unfair trade practices." It is not hard to guess that this is a joint pressure on China.

The economy and markets of China are nervous, as the China's stock market is minus 25% from the beginning of the year. The default level on bonds of Chinese companies are at highs. The government is trying new injections to support the pyramid of the huge debt of businesses and regions. This is very similar to the real financial pyramid.

Therefore, the main vulnerability seems to be pointed out to the yuan.

It appears that the worsening of Chinese trade conditions should stimulate the fall of the yuan to the dollar, and thereby compensate for the problem. But there is a problem with the depreciation of the renminbi: the outflow of foreign capital.

If the renminbi rate starts to drop noticeably towards the dollar, this could cause a significant foreign capital outflow from the Chinese market and, in turn, will push the yuan further down. The fall of the renminbi may reach a considerable amount.

It is suggested that it is time for China to take steps to reconcile with the US. Either way, prepare for very hard times.

Let's also note that if China's economy had a sharp decline, it will become painful for the entire world economy and will hit the US as well.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Trading plan for the European session on July 30 EUR/USD

To open long positions for EUR / USD, you need:

It is best to consider long positions in the euro after consolidation above the 1.1668 resistance level, which opens a direct road to the maximum in the area of 1.1698 and 1.1728 where it is recommended to fix profits. If the EUR/USD currency pair falls below the support level 1.1648, long positions can be expected to rebound from 1.1623 or from a larger area around 1.1597.

To open short positions for EUR / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout in the resistance area 1.1668 will be a signal to the euro sales to reduce and consolidate below 1.1648 support, which will lead to a larger sale to the weekly minimum area of 1.1623 and to the renewal of the large support 1.1597, where it is recommended to fix profit. If the euro rises in the first half of the day above 1.1668, you can sell for a rebound from resistance at 1.1698.

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Indicators Description:

  • MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (average sliding) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Trading plan for the European session on July 30 GBP / USD

To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

To open long positions on the pound I advise only after the breakdown and consolidation above support 1.3119, which will lead to the formation of an upward trend in the area of 1.3165 and 1.3214, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a pound drop in the morning, you can go back to shopping after a false breakout around 1.3070 or a rebound from 1.3008.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Forming a false breakout and returning to resistance level 1.3119 will be the first signal to sell the pound, which will lead to another update of support 1.3070, the breakdown of which will collapse GBP / USD to the area of 1.3007 minimum, where I recommend fixing profit. In case of growth in the first half of the day above 1.3119, you can sell the pound for a rebound from 1.3165.

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Description of indicators

MA (average sliding) 50 days - yellow

MA (average sliding) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Overview of USD / JPY as of July 30, 2018

USD / JPY

As we assumed in the latest review of the yen (July 26), the price managed to hold onto the red trend line with additional support of the balance line (red indicator line). The yen was supported by its own data: the growth of prices for corporate services from 1.0% y / y to 1.2% y / y in the June estimate, the basic CPI of Tokyo in July (0.8% y / y against 0.7% y / y in June), US GDP growth for the 2nd quarter by 4.1%, with no European speculative and psychological uncertainties, and today's retail sales in Japan for June, showing an increase from 0.6% y / y up to 1.8% y / y, with the expectation of 1.7% y / y.

The Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 today loses 0.75%, which happened after the Friday collapse of the American S & P500 by 0.66%. But the fall of the US market is also largely due to psychological factors. Markets down pulled social networks Facebook and Twitter, which showed good quarterly reporting, but reported a decrease in the number of subscribers due to the introduction of bots.

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We constructed the rising price channel by a hypothetical method, that is, without confirmation by the second touch point (green bottom support), the guideline here is the correct channel resistance lines. But this construction shows us that the price is squeezed in a wedge formed by the support of the green line and the resistance of the red (with a price point of 111.66). Also the resistance is the line of Kruzenshtern (blue). The signal line of the oscillator is Marlin showing a turn from the border with a zone of negative numbers, a zone of decline in the trend. On the graph of H4, this line is already in the growth zone.

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By the combination of circumstances, we expect a lateral price movement, support for the ascending green channel should still receive a touch at the price, before the hypothetical channel is re-formed into a regular worker.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD For July 30, 2018

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(Disclaimer)

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 30, 2018

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On the 4-hour chart of USD/CHF, we can see a bullish harmonic pattern Gartley 222 completed. After the price has reached the first target at 0.9953 (the 38.2% Fibonacci Retrachement from point C-D), the price is now they trying to reach the second target at 0.9987 (the 61.8% Fibonacci Retrachement from point C-D). On the grounds of this fact, we know the pair is going to trade with a bullish bias at least for a few days more.

(Disclaimer)

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Overview of EUR / USD as of July 30, 2018

EUR / USD

On Friday, in the first half of the day, economic data on France came out. The GDP for the 2nd quarter showed an increase of 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%, and consumer spending for June added just 0.1% against expectations of 0.6 %. The data raised investor interest in US economic data. US GDP for the 2nd quarter showed very good growth: 4.1%. The forecast was 3.8% -4.2%, but even earlier the US government released a rumor about a possible incredible growth to 4.8%. As a result, investors' expectations turned out to be overheated, and by the end of the day, the euro grew by 15 points.

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Technically, the picture has not changed; the price is still held under the red balance line and the blue trend also continues to play a supporting role (1.1600). The breakdown of the line will entail an increase in bearish market sentiment, the subsequent target is 1.1475-1.1508. And further on 1.1300.

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On the four-hour chart, the price is also under all the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator on both scales shows a decline in the trend.

Today, unfinished sales in the secondary real estate market for June are forecast for the USA - 0.4% forecast, tomorrow personal income and consumer spending for June - 0.4% forecast, which creates a good mood for dollar buyers.

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Overview of the GBP / USD as of July 30, 2018

GBP / USD

On Friday, on continuing uncertainties in the Brexit negotiation process, the British pound for the first half declined along with the euro, but with the release of US data on economic growth with the subsequent growth of the euro (the dollar index lost 0.08%), closed the day down by only 2 item.

Today, the UK lending data for June will be released. The number of approved mortgage loans is projected at 65.5 thousand versus 64.5 thousand in May, total mortgage lending is expected at 3.95 billion pounds against 3.86 billion a month earlier. The volume of net loans to individuals is projected at the level of May's figure of 5.3 billion pounds sterling. According to the US, unfinished sales in the secondary real estate market for June - 0.4% forecast. In the end, if the pound wants to show growth, it will be limited by the resistance of the trend line to both H4 (1.3122) and daily (1.3150). The price here is easier to fall than to grow, especially as tomorrow, according to the incomes and expenditures of consumers in the US, good data is expected - an increase of 0.4%.

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We are waiting for a decrease to support the trend line at 1.3022. then the goal is 1.2800.

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Fractal analysis for major currency pairs as of July 30

Dear colleagues.

For the EUR / USD pair, the resumption of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1701. The level of 1.1615 is the key support. For the GBP / USD pair, the price is in correction. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3167. For the USD / CHF pair, the price is still in correction. The level of 0.9998 is the key support for the downward structure from July 13. For the USD / JPY pair, the continuation of the movement downwards is expected after passing the price of the noise range at 110.84 - 110.60. For the EUR / JPY pair, we expect a correction and a registration of the upstream structure after the breakdown of 129.77. For the GBP / JPY pair, we also expect the departure towards the correction zone from the downward trend and the formation of the potential for the top.

The forecast for July 30:

Analytical review of currency pairs in the scale of H1:

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For the EUR / USD pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 1.1869, 1.1806, 1.1788, 1.1757, 1.1731, 1.1701, 1.1635, 1.1615 and 1.1583. Here, the price is in deep correction from the upward structure on July 19. In order to cancel this structure, passing the price of the noise range of 1.1635 - 1.1615 is required. In this case, the first potential target for the bottom is 1.1583. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1701. Here, the first target is 1.1731. In the area of 1.1731 - 1.1757 is short-term upward movement. The breakdown of 1.1757 will allow us to count on the expressed movement towards the level of 1.1788. In the area of 1.1788 - 1.1806 is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.1869 (the more probable date is July 27), the movement towards which is expected after the breakdown of 1.1806.

The main trend is the upward structure of July 19, a deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1701 Take profit: 1.1730

Buy 1.1735 Take profit: 1.1755

Sell: 1.1653 Take profit: 1.1585

Sell: Take profit:

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For the GBP / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3356, 1.3303, 1.3228, 1.3200, 1.3167, 1.3111, 1.3079 and 1.3031. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of July 19. At the moment, the price is in the corrective area. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3167. In this case, the first target is 1.3200. Passing the price of the noise range of 1.3200 - 1.3228 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3303. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 1.3356. The probable achievement is July 26 - 27.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.3111 - 1.3079. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of a downward structure. In this case, the target is 1.3031.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 19, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3167 Take profit: 1.3200

Buy: 1.3200 Take profit: 1.3226

Sell: 1.3110 Take profit: 1.3080

Sell: 1.3076 Take profit: 1.3031

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For the USD / CHF pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 0.9998, 0.9957, 0.9935, 0.9894, 0.9872, 0.9819 and 0.9779. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure of July 13 as the main one. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after passing through the noise range of 0.9894 - 0.9872. In this case, the target is 0.9819. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 0.9779. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.

Consolidated upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9935 - 0.9957. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9998. This level is the key support for the downward structure from July 13. Passing the price will lead to the development of the an upward trend. In this case, the potential goal is 1.0068.

The main trend is the downward structure from July 13, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9960 Take profit: 0.9995

Buy: 1.0000 Take profit: 1.0060

Sell: 0.9870 Take profit: 0.9822

Sell: 0.9817 Take profit: 0.9782

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For the USD / JPY pair, the key levels on a scale are: 111.80, 111.42, 111.21, 110.84, 110.60, 110.15 and 109.82. Here, we follow the formation of the medium-term downward movement of July 19. The continuation of the movement downwards is possible after passing the price of the noise range at 110.84 - 110.60. In this case, the target is 110.15. Upon reaching this level, we expect the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 109.82, from which we expect a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.62 - 111.89. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 112.29. This level is the key support for the downward structure from July 19.

The main trend is the formation of the medium-term structure of July 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 111.62 Take profit: 111.87

Buy: 111.92 Take profit: 112.26

Sell: 110.58 Take profit: 110.17

Sell: 110.13 Take profit: 109.84

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For the CAD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3158, 1.3131, 1.3080, 1.3052, 1.2988, 1.2945, 1.2881 and 1.2845. Here, for the subsequent development of a downward trend, we expect the formulation of local initial conditions. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2988 - 1.2945. We consider the level of 1.2881 to be a potential value for the downward trend. After it, consolidation is possible, and also a rollback to the top. At the moment, the price is in the final in the 8th time zone for the downward structure from July 20.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3052 - 1.3080. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3131. The range of 1.3131 - 1.3158 is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the downward structure from July 20, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: 1.3085 Take profit: 1.3130

Sell: 1.2985 Take profit: 1.2945

Sell: 1.2942 Take profit: 1.2884

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For the AUD / USD pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7592, 0.7551, 0.7522, 0.7477, 0.7434, 0.7410, 0.7381, 0.7356 and 0.7324. Here, we follow the development of the upward structure of July 20. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7434. In this case, the first target is 0.7477. Near this level is the consolidation of the price. The breakdown of 0.7477 will allow us to count on the movement towards 0.7522. In the area of 0.7522 - 0.7551 is short-term upward movement as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the top is the level of 0.7592. After reaching this level, we expect a pullback downwards.

Short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7381 - 0.7356. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of a downward structure. Here, the first target is 0.7324.

The main trend is the upward structure from July 20, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7436 Take profit: 0.7475

Buy: 0.7480 Take profit: 0.7520

Sell: 0.7378 Take profit: 0.7358

Sell: 0.7354 Take profit: 0.7326

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For the EUR / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 130.47, 130.08, 129.77, 129.39, 129.12 and 128.63. Here, we follow the development of the downward movement of July 17, we are currently waiting for a correction. Consolidated movement is expected in the range of 129.39 - 129.12. The breakdown of the last value will allow us to count on the movement towards the potential target of 128.63. From this level, we expect a rollback and the development of the upward structure.

Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 129.77 - 130.08. The breakdown of the last value will lead to in-depth correction and the formation of initial conditions for the top. In this case, the potential target is 130.47.

The main trend is a downward structure from July 17. We expect a departure towards correction and the formation of an upward structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.77 Take profit: 130.05

Buy: 130.12 Take profit: 130.40

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 129.08 Take profit: 128.65

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For the GBP / JPY pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 148.11, 147.37, 146.89, 146.24, 145.01, 144.33 and 143.46. Here, we continue to follow the downward structure from July 16. Currently, we expect a correction. In area of 145.01 - 144.33 we expect short-term downward movement, as well as the consolidation of the price. The potential value for the bottom is the level of 143.46. The movement towards this level is expected after the breakdown of 144.30.

We expect the correction to continue after the breakdown at 146.24. In this case, the first target is 146.89. Short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 146.90 - 147.37. The breakdown of the last value will lead to the development of the an upward structure. Here, the first potential target is 148.11.

The main trend is a downward structure from July 16. We expect a correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 146.30 Take profit: 146.85

Buy: 146.90 Take profit: 147.35

Sell: 145.00 Take profit: 144.45

Sell: 144.25 Take profit: 143.55

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Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, July 30, 2018

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, and German Prelim CPI m/m. The US will also release the Economic Data such as Loan Officer Survey, and Pending Home Sales m/m, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1715.

Strong Resistance:1.1708.

Original Resistance: 1.1697.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1686.

Target Inner Area: 1.1658.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1630.

Original Support: 1.1619.

Strong Support: 1.1608.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1601.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY for July 30, 2018

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In Asia, Japan will release the Retail Sales y/y and the US will release some Economic Data such as Loan Officer Survey, and Pending Home Sales m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 111.64.

Resistance. 2: 111.42.

Resistance. 1: 111.20.

Support. 1: 110.96.

Support. 2: 110.73.

Support. 3: 110.50.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 30, 2018

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We continue to expect support at 1.1716 will be able to protect the downside for a break above resistance at 1.7207 that confirms, that red wave ii has completed and that red wave iii towards 1.7510 and above is developing.

An unexpected break below support at 1.7116 will tell us that the correction in black wave ii/ still is in motion for a continuation closer to 1.7067 before a possible corrective low should be in place.

R3: 1.7268

R2: 1.7207

R1: 1.7163

Pivot: 1.7137

S1: 1.7116

S2: 1.7067

S3: 1.7033

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.7226, with our stop placed at 1.7110. If you are not long EUR, the buy a break above 1.7207 and use the same stop at 1.7110.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 30, 2018

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EUR/JPY remains lock inside the descending channel towards the 128.55 - 128.98 target area. Once this area is tested red wave ii is expected to complete and a new impulsive rally in red wave iii should take over for a rally towards 135.74.

Short-term resistance is seen at 129.65 and again at 130.28. A break above the later will be a strong indication that red wave ii has completed and that red wave iii is developing.

R3: 130.28

R2: 130.03

R1: 126.65

Pivot: 129.35

S1: 129.09

S2: 128.98

S3: 128.55

Trading recommendation:

We will buy EUR at 128.60 or upon a break above 130.28.

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