Trading plan for AUDUSD for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

AUDUSD had managed to rally towards 0.7060 level around June 10, 2020, before reversing sharply. Earlier the pair dropped to 0.6775 level on June 15, 2020. Since then it managed to pull out a counter-trend rally towards 0.6975 level, which is also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous drop as seen here. Immediate resistance is seen toward 0.7060 level, while support is seen at 0.6775 respectively. AUDUSD is expected to drop lower below 0.6775 in the short term. Intraday resistance is seen at 0.6920 and traders might be looking to sell there with risk above 0.7060 level respectively.

Trading plan:

Short now, stop @ 0.7060, target @ below 0.6775.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for Gold for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Gold had rallied towards $1,780 levels on June 24, 2020; before pulling back. The yellow metal had dropped to $1,747 levels and found support of a short-term trend line passing through. Gold is seen to be trading around $1,769 levels at this point in writing and it need to break below the trend line to turn bearish again. On the flip side, a break above $1,780 would push the metal towards $1,790/95 resistance. Gold has been rallying since last 13 months from $1,262 levels and should be very close to forming a meaningful top. It is better to avoid initiating fresh long positions and get into a bull trap, since upside remains limited towards $1,790/95 levels, going forward. Aggressive traders might want to sell with risk above $1,780 resistance.

Trading plan:

Aggressive traders remain short with stop @ 1,780, target is open.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for Bitcoin for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Bitcoin had rallied through 10400/500 levels earlier, almost taking out initial resistance at 10500 as shown on the daily chart here. Since then the crypto has been drifting sideways and it is seen to be trading around 9160 levels at this point in writing. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 3850 and 10500 respectively. Immediate resistance is seen around 10500, while strong support remains around 3850 level respectively. Ideally, Bitcoin should produce a counter trend drop towards 6300 levels, which is very close to Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the previous rally. A bullish reaction could be expected around 6300/6400 levels and Bitcoin could resume its rally towards 13800. It is recommended to open short deals with risk at 10500 level and then turn bullish again at lower levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, Stop @ 10500, target @ 6300/6400. Then turn bullish again.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for DAX for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

DAX had rallied towards 12920 level around June 09, 2020, before sharply reversing. The index had dropped to 11600 level by June 15, 2020, before resuming its counter-trend rally. The recent boundary which is being worked upon is between 12920 and 11600 respectively. The index is seen to be trading around 12232 level around this point in writing and is expected to break below 11600 interim support. Also note that the counter trend rally had managed to reach 12600 level, which is close to the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement of earlier drop. Resistance is seen to be strong around 12920 levels, while support is around 11600 respectively. Traders would be looking to sell on rallies, with risk around 12920 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 12920, target @ 10500 in the short term.

Good luck!

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Trading plan for Dow Jones for June 30, 2020

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Technical outlook:

Dow Jones had rallied through 27,586 levels around 09 June, 2020 before reversing lower again. The index is seen to be trading around 25,595 levels at this point in writing and is expected to resume lower. Please note that the Dow Jones had earlier dropped from 27,585 towards 24,843 by June 15, 2020. The counter trend rally since then managed to reach 26,600 levels, which is extremely close to the fibonacci 0.618 retracement of earlier drop. Ideally, the index should remain below 27,585 interim resistance going forward and continue lower below 24,000 mark in the short term. The boundary which is being worked upon is between 27,585 and 24,843 respectively. Traders should be looking to sell on rallies, with risk around 27,585 levels.

Trading plan:

Remain short, stop @ 27,600, target is below 24,000 in the short term.

Good luck!

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for June 30, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the lower channel line around the level of 1.1190 and made a local high at the level of 1.1287 before the Bearish Engulfing pattern had been made. The bearish pressure is still present on chart, so if bulls will not violate the nearest technical resistance located at the level of 1.1282-1.1290, then the swing top located at 1.1419 will not be hit. On the other hand, any violation of the level of 1.1236 makes the rally towards the swing low located at the level of 1.1168 highly possible, so please keep an eye on the current developments at this market. Please notice the overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the short-term bullish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1484

WR2 - 1.1410

WR1 - 1.1289

Weekly Pivot - 1.1235

WS1 - 1.1124

WS2 - 1.1056

WS3 - 1.0936

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for June 30, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Blockchain-based Russian voting system is reportedly attacked by an election observer node.

As reported by the state news agency TASS, the attack took place on June 27 at around 20:00 CET. A representative of the Moscow government told TASS that the attack did not cause a system crash, which means that all e-voices will be successfully registered in the chain.

According to the official, cyber security experts were working to restore access to the victim node. It is unclear whether it has been repaired.

Electronic voting, which takes place from June 25-30 for residents of Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod, is based on the Blockchain Exonum platform developed by Bitfury.

The constitutional amendments initiated earlier this year, if approved, will theoretically allow Vladimir Putin for a further two six-year terms, which means that he could remain president until 2036.

According to previous reports, the electronic voting website was unavailable for the first few hours after launch.

Furthermore, blockchain-based online voting has resulted in some incorrect results in some regions. For example, nearly 7,300 people assigned to polling stations in the Trojick County have been registered to vote online, even though the station has only 2,358 residents entitled to vote. The local electoral commission claimed it was a "technical failure".

In addition, some people reported that they were able to vote several times because of the apparently poor system compatibility with some offline voting.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local high at the level of $9,129, but it looks like the bulls had lost the battle of the trend line resistance. There is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top of this move, so if the intraday support located at the level of $8,971 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $8,565.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $10,465

WR2 - $10,072

WR1 - $9,509

Weekly Pivot - $9,126

WS1 - $8,593

WS2 - $8,191

WS3 - 7,623

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for June 30, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Hong Kong Cryptocurrency Instrument Exchange BitMEX is introducing a new program with benefits for its corporate clients, including improved security support and accounting.

According to the announcement published on the BitMEX support website, the stock exchange is launching a new program for corporate clients called BitMEX Corporate. Accounts on the cryptographic exchange that are not owned and not operated by a natural person can now guarantee that their BitMEX resources are the legal property of the corporation.

BitMEX said the new features were created for customers who need "different ownership structures for their accounts," account access and management, and security requirements. However, the announcement also states that options such as multi-user login and instant transfers between accounts will be available later in 2020.

Although BitMEX remains one of the largest derivative exchanges in the world, many members of the cryptographic community claim that they are losing confidence in it.

According to previous reports, the stock market went offline in March for almost 25 minutes during a crypto blood-bath, many users were not happy about the BitMEX explanation of "a hardware problem with the cloud service provider." In addition, the derivatives giant must face a new lawsuit in which executives are accused of extorting money, laundering money, banking fraud and transferring money without a license.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has retraced 38% of the last wave down and made a new local high at the level of $229. Nevertheless, the is a Doji candlestick pattern made at the top ot the move, which indicates a possible reversal of the local up trend. If the intraday support located at the level of $221.31 is clearly violated, the odds for another low are high as the momentum is still weak and negative. The next target for bears is seen at the level of $209.89.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $273.84

WR2 - $260.74

WR1 - $240.04

Weekly Pivot - $227.40

WS1 - $206.35

WS2 - $194.36

WS3 - $173.30

Trading Recommendations:

The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on June 30. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Inflation alone was not enough.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday's attempt to break through resistance 1.1280 did not succeed, and good data on inflation in Germany was not enough to maintain the morning bullish momentum, which quickly waned amid the risk of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how buyers of the European currency tried to cling to the level of 1.1280 several times, but returning to this range in the afternoon generated a signal to sell the euro, which quickly returned the pair to morning support at 1.1236, a little above which trade is now underway. There are some changes that could affect the growth prospects of the European currency in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for June 23. An increase in long positions was recorded a week earlier, but the growth of short ones was also noted, which indicates a possible slowdown of the bullish momentum in the short term. Those wishing to buy euros under current conditions and at higher prices are becoming much smaller, and more and more they want to have time to enter the market before the wave of a new fall in EUR/USD. The report shows an increase in short non-commercial positions from 69,988 to 72,368, while long non-commercial positions also slightly rose from 187,120 to 190,816. As a result, the positive non-commercial net position grew again and amounted toreached 118,448, against 117,132, which indicates a slight slowdown in the interest in buying risky assets at current prices. As for the intraday strategy, after yesterday's unsuccessful attempts to raise the euro, it has not changed much. The bulls' task is to protect the level of 1.1236 and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open long positions while expecting EUR/USD to grow to a high of 1.1282, where I recommend taking profit. The level of 1.1321 is another target at the middle of the week. If there is no activity at 1.1236 in the morning, and there are a number of reports on inflation in the EU countries and the eurozone as a whole today, it could put pressure on the euro. It is best to postpone long positions until we update the low of 1.1197 and buy from there immediately for a rebound with the aim of a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

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To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The task is still the same for sellers of the European currency. It is necessary to wait until the inflation reports are released, which will most likely lead to consolidation below support 1.1236 and another wave of pressure on the European currency. This will open a direct path to a low of 1.1198, the next test of which will be a bearish signal and strengthen the downward trend with the exit to the levels 1.1170 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profit. If the bulls continue to push EUR/USD after the publication, it is best not to rush into sales, but wait until the resistance of 1.1282 is updated, or open short positions immediately on the rebound from the high of 1.1321, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

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Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates an active confrontation for the further direction of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1250 will lead to a new upward momentum of the pair. In case the euro falls, the lower border of the indicator will provide support in the region of 1.1215 from which a small upward rebound will form.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-profit traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
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Control zones for OIL on 06/30/20

Oil tested the defining support in the form of WCZ 1/2 37.71-37.32 again yesterday, which led to growth and an absorption pattern to form on the daily level. Purchases from the control zone must be kept until the monthly high is updated, afterwards they can be converted to breakeven or a part can be consolidated.

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Working within the ascending momentum in the medium term makes it possible for you to hold part of the position based on testing the 46.19 level, which is the main goal in the long term.

The option to continue forming the accumulation zone will develop if testing the month's high results in forming an absorption pattern of the daily level and an increase in offers. This will indicate the need to open a short position and close all purchases.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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GBP/USD price movement, June 30, 2020

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On the 4-hour chart, we can see that GBP/USD formed the divergence between the price from the Cable with the Stochastic Oscillator. It means that soon GBP/USD will resume its bullish momentum with the Daily BUY Side Liquidity Pool at 1.2542 as uts target. This scenario is likely to occur if the pair does not drop and close bellow the 1.2251 level

(Disclaimer)

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EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12888

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.13382

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

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EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12888

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.13382

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.12888

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement

Take Profit: 1.11514

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal pullback support, 50% fibonacci retracement, 78.6% fibonacci extension

Stop Loss: 1.13382

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance

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Control zones for USD/JPY on 06/30/20

There was a test of two significant resistances at once yesterday. The pair reached the WCZ 1/2 107.90-107.74, which is the determining factor on the growth track, as well as a return to the lower boundary of the weekly average course of early June. This indicates a 100% implementation of the priority ascending model. Further growth will be possible if today's trading closes above the WCZ 1/2. This will open up opportunities for buying the instrument.

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The purpose of the upward movement is the weekly control zone of 109.77-109.43. The range between the zones is 181 points, which will make purchases extremely profitable.

An alternative downward model will develop if an absorption pattern forms from yesterday's growth. The probability of this is below 50%, which makes the model provide support. The growth of the last five days has led to forming a weekly absorption model, which could become the main one for trading in the first half of July.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which changes several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on June 30, 2020

EUR/USD

The euro tried to break the technical level of 1.1265 on Monday, due to news of closures of organizations in California as a result of the second wave of the viral epidemic. But in general, the markets were not going to panic, the technical resistance was stable, and the euro showed a daily growth of 23 points. The Marlin oscillator continues to decline in the negative area, the downward trend and the previous target of 1.1108 along the price channel of the weekly scale remain.

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The price returned to the area under the MACD line (blue indicator) on the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator also returned to a downward trend. The first goal of the euro is 1.1195, it is also the signal level for moving to the main goal of 1.1108.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on June 30, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed little volatility yesterday, continuing to consolidate at 0.6900. The technical situation has not changed, the target at 0.6680 for the March 9 high remains.

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The previous day's price did not go beyond the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is slightly growing, but does not leave the decreasing trend zone. Consolidating the price under the signal level 0.6842 paves the way for the Australian currency to the specified target of 0.6680.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on June 30, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen enthusiastically reacted to the growth of European and US stock indices on Monday, although it ended lower in Asian markets. The Nikkei 225 lost 2.29% yesterday, but with the S&P 500 up 1.47% today, the Japanese index rose 1.77%. The price reached the first target level of 107.77. The Marlin oscillator has moved into the growing trend zone, the price has the opportunity to develop growth first to 108.10, then afterwards, to the target range of 108.30/40.

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The four-hour chart shows that the price reversal from the MACD line turned out to be very effective. The trend is upward in both charts under review, we are waiting for the price to grow to the first target of 108.10 (May 19 high).

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AUDJPY facing bearish pressure, potential for further drop!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 74.31

Reason for Entry: Horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit :73.87

Reason for Take Profit: 50 fib retracement

Stop Loss:74.66

Reason for Stop loss: Horizontal swing high resistance

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USDCAD bounce in progress towards descending trendline resistance!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.36588

Reason for Entry: Moving average support

Take Profit: 1.36970

Reason for Take Profit: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, descending trendline resistance.

Stop Loss: 1.36367

Reason for Stop Loss: -27.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair on June 30. COT report. Boris Johnson pulled down the pound. Decline

GBP/USD 1H

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The GBP/USD currency pair, unlike the EUR/US, simply continued its downward movement and worked out the first support level of 1.2250 on Monday. Thus, the bears continue to use any chance in order to continue to get rid of the British currency. The descending channel clearly shows the current trend and as long as the quotes do not get out of it, buyers will remain in the shadows. However, the British currency's next fall is not surprising, given the general fundamental background. However, more on that below, and in this section we can only say that there are several important supports below the pound/dollar pair, which could be difficult for bears to overcome.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be downward on the 15-minute timeframe, so the overall trend remains downward in the short term. Quotes of the pair are also located below the moving average line, so for the time being we are not even talking about an upward correction in the short term.

COT Report

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The latest COT report, which covers dates June 17-23, shows minimal changes. A group of professional traders were extremely inactive in the indicated period of time and only opened 3,500 new transactions. Of these, 1,200 for purchase and 2,300 for sale. At the same time, the group of hedgers were even less active and closed 343 contracts for the purchase and opened 2,500 contracts for the sale. This is very small. However, this was enough for the pound to resume its decline. This happened after June 23, a time period that is not covered by the latest COT report. Thus, no conclusions can be drawn from the latest report. The mood of traders has not changed, and the total number of open positions opened by a group of professional traders remains with an advantage in short positions. Despite the rather low activity of professional traders, the British currency will have a tendency to decline further.

The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair was negative again on Tuesday. The head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is set to give a speech on this day. However, traders were not interested in his speech. On the same day, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson made a speech, saying the following: "This (coronavirus crisis) was a disaster. Let's not downplay our words, I mean, it was an absolute nightmare for the country, and the country experienced a deep shock." After these words, the British pound resumed its decline, as traders quite reasonably interpreted Johnson's words in a negative context. Obviously, the British economy, which had problems even before the coronavirus crisis due to Brexit, experienced a real shock thanks to the pandemic and quarantine. Accordingly, recovery can be much more difficult and longer than in Europe or the United States. The UK is set to publish GDP for the first quarter on Wednesday, June 30, which, according to forecasts, could lose only 1.6% in annual terms and 2.0% in quarterly terms. These figures are much smaller than in America or the European Union, however, they are unlikely to support the British currency.

There are two main scenarios as of June 30:

1) Since the support area of 1.2403-1.2423 was passed, the downward movement resumed. The trend remains downward, however, a price rebound from the first target of 1.2250 triggered a round of corrective movement. Thus, traders need to wait for it to end and only after that should they resume selling the pair with goals 1.2168 and 1.2022. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 130 to 260 points.

2) Buyers need to wait until the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line and above the downward channel, which will give them a chance to resume moving upward with targets at resistance levels 1.2478 and 1.2624. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 190 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on June 30. COT report. Buyers made an unsuccessful attempt to break

EURUSD 1H

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The EUR/USD pair was traded in different directions on the hourly timeframe on June 29, while perfectly working out the key lines and levels. The Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines were worked out, from which a rebound followed with the resumption of the downward movement. Thus, the bears dominate the market after formally overcoming the ascending trend line, but at the same time they clearly do not have enough strength for new sales of the pair. Perhaps they will be given an impetus by a rebound from the Senkou Span B line and overcoming the support area of 1.1227-1.1242. In general, the pair has made two important rebounds over the past few days, from the resistance area of 1.1327-1.1342 and the Senkou Span B line. Thus, buyers continue to stay out of the market and can not even play against weak bears on equal terms at this time.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the short term. But traders managed to gain a foothold below the moving average line and fall to the lower lines of both channels by the end of Monday, so it is possible to resume the downward movement.

COT Report

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The new COT report, which was released last Friday, as we expected, showed no major changes. The pair has been trading in different directions for the last ten days, and there is no pronounced trend. The trend seems to be downward, but sellers do not have a clear advantage. The most interesting group of professional traders for us, which includes various organizations that enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit, only opened 3,000 transactions for the purchase and 2,000 transactions for the sale in the reporting week, which is very small. A group of hedgers were more active, but it did not drive the market. The total number of transactions increased by almost 20,000, short positions had an advantage. However, in general, we can call this report boring and uninformative. The mood of major players remained virtually unchanged over the reporting week. Recent trading days that are not included in the latest COT report do not add any clarity, since the pair continues to trade in different directions.

The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was practically absent on Monday. We do not even analyze the report on inflation in Germany, which, from our point of view, did not matter to traders. In recent months, market participants with pleasure and ease have ignored much more significant data, continuing to trade the pair for their own reasons, which often do not coincide with the fundamental background. Moreover, more and more attention has recently been paid to the epidemic rather than to economic factors. Experts seriously fear that the whole world will be overwhelmed by a new wave of pandemics, which will have to introduce a new total quarantine. And even if the quarantine is not as strict as the first one, there will still be certain restrictions that will at best slow down the recovery of the economy, and at worst contribute to its new decline. First of all, this now concerns the United States, where the lockdown did not bring any results. Isolated by someone or something, Anthony Fauci finally went on the air, saying only that the current numbers of infected people in the United States are frightening. However, few people listened to Fauci when the virus was just beginning to take over America. Now, it is unlikely that the White House will go to a new total quarantine because of fears that China will take away the world's leadership and strengthen its influence on other countries, while the United States is mired in a crisis and epidemic. Well, don't forget about the presidential election. A new lockdown, a new fall in the economy can finish off Donald Trump's chances of re-election.

Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 30:

1) The bears seemed to have overcome the upward trend line, but failed to extract anything for themselves from this signal. Thus, sales orders with the support levels of 1.1141 and 1.1065 remain relevant until the quotes remain below two key lines, Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen. However, it is worth remembering that now there is a high probability of a flat. Potential Take Profit range from 80 to 150 points.

2) Buyers can still return to the market, but have too many barriers to form new upward trend. Therefore, we advise you to wait until the 1.1327-1.1342 area has been overcome before buying the EUR/USD pair with a target at the resistance level of 1.1425. Potential Take Profit in this case is about 75 points.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 30. The "swing" continues. Coronavirus is back in focus. Markets fear not a second wave

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: -63.5571

Well, if a few days ago we doubted that the euro/dollar pair could go into a sideways movement since there were a sufficient number of technical factors that speak in favor of the beginning of a new downward trend, now we can say with confidence that the euro/dollar quotes are trading in a side channel. During the past day, the pair again failed to continue the downward movement, so a new upward turn was made and a new round of upward movement was started with a new overcoming of the moving average line, which ended very quickly. At the same time, the prospects for the European currency remain very vague, since no positive news is coming from Europe right now. However, the situation in America now can not be interpreted as "positive". The fact is that in recent weeks, the problem of the "coronavirus epidemic" has again become acute across the ocean. At least, this is what most analysts and representatives of the healthcare sector believe. However, we believe that the first wave was not completed in the United States either. Just in contrast to the more conscious countries that were not in a hurry to remove quarantine measures, and more far-sighted rulers who think not only about the upcoming elections and political ratings, there was no decline in the growth rate of the virus in America. This is why the United States remains in first place in the world in terms of the number of diseases. This is not about the number of tests performed or the size of the country's population. And the country probably does not need to say what the repeated "lockdown" threatens.

On the first trading day of the week, there were no important reports or events in Europe or the United States. In Germany, the consumer price index for June was published, which was better than the forecast values and amounted to 0.9% y/y. However, this is not surprising, since the European economy has begun to recover, and Europe has managed to stop the spread of infection with the help of strict quarantine measures. Even in the most infected countries, such as Italy and Spain, the daily increase in new cases is minimal. Therefore, it is the European economy that can now fully embark on the path of recovery, although Christine Lagarde expects it to shrink by almost 9% by the end of 2020, while in America they expect a fall of 5-6%. However, its future will still depend on the results of the fight against "coronavirus" infection. If the second wave of the disease begins in Europe, then the growth of the European GDP will be slowed down.

At the same time, after a long break, the chief epidemiologist of the United States Anthony Fauci went on the air, who said that the situation with the"coronavirus" in the United States is beginning to become very serious. Anti-records for the number of new cases are updated daily in the United States. However, many health officials believe that the actual number of infected people in the United States is much higher than the official number. In general, all this situation does not add optimism to buyers of the US currency. So far, the dollar is not under pronounced pressure, but in the future, if COVID-2019 continues to spread across the US at the same pace, it will affect the US economy. Accordingly, the country's macroeconomic indicators may continue to decline instead of recovering.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump just can't live a day without a scandal. On June 28, Donald Trump posted a video of one of his supporters on his Twitter page, which clearly shows a white man shouting the phrase "White Power" several times. The fact that the American President deliberately retweeted this video to his page means that he approves of what is happening in the video. Naturally, a new racist scandal immediately unfolded on the network, and the video was deleted a few hours later. The White House immediately made it clear that Donald Trump did not notice any racist chants and does not support them. However, most Americans who do not encourage Trump's policies immediately concluded that the president has racist tendencies. To be honest, we continue to believe that Trump is doing everything possible not to be re-elected in November 2020...

On the second trading day of the week, the European Union is scheduled to publish the consumer price index for June in a preliminary value. It is expected that the main indicator in annual terms will be 0.1%, while the base indicator (excluding food and energy prices) may be 0.8% y/y, continuing to slow down. However, much more important and significant events are planned for the second half of the day, when the US will host speeches by the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Naturally, it is not known what the two main financiers of the country will say, but these are potentially two very important speeches. We continue to hold our opinion that in the current conditions, Mnuchin and Powell simply can't tell the markets anything but negative. For sure, both economists will touch on the topic of a new package of financing for the US economy, as well as the topic of "coronavirus", which can lead to a new downturn in the economy. If their speech is overly "dovish", the US dollar may continue its decline, which began at the beginning of the new trading week. Also scheduled for the US trading session is a speech by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, who, in turn, can share prospects and forecasts related to the European economy.

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The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of June 30 is 76 points and is characterized as "average", but in general, the volatility continues to decrease. We expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1153 and 1.1305. A new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator upward will signal a new round of upward movement, possibly within the side channel.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1230

S2 – 1.1108

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1353

R2 – 1.1475

R3 – 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair managed to change the direction of a movement twice over the past day and finally settled again below the moving average line. Thus, at this time, short positions with the goals of 1.1153 and 1.1108 are relevant, which it is recommended to keep open until the MACD indicator turns up. At the same time, there is a probability of a price rebound from the level of 1.1170 – the previous local minimum. It is recommended to return to buying the pair not before fixing the price above the moving average with the goals of 1.1305 and 1.1353, but these goals are very close, and the probability of a flat is high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com