Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 21/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Heath Tarbert, chairman of the US Futures Trade Commission (CFTC), says it is not yet clear what kind of product Libra will be - including whether it can be a security.

Talking to the media at the CME Group Global Financial Leadership conference, Tarbert discussed the current US regulatory position on cryptocurrencies and Blockchain and the country's global position in this technology.

Tarbet said Bitcoin has been around for 10 years, is well understood, and CFTC "is able to classify it not as a security but as a commodity," he said. On the other hand, Libra is "a fundamentally different product" but is currently in constant motion:

"Libra is growing and there are many unanswered questions - and the way it is constructed by linking it directly to a set of national currencies - is a completely different product."

The CFTC decision on Libra status will probably have to wait until stablecoin - which is to be linked to the US dollar, euro, yen, British pound and Singapore dollar - be issued. The date for this event is planned for half or the end of next year if the project is able to deal with the major regulatory obstacles that have been observed so far.

David Marcus, co-creator of Libra, emphasizing that it is too early to classify the digital currency, also said that it could eventually be divided into separate stablecoins, each of which is assigned to a different fiat currency.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/UDS pair is still under the pressure from the supply side as bears have managed to push the price lower towards the key short-term technical support located at the level of $172.91 and made a new local low just below it, at the level of $171.55. If this level is clearly violated, then the sell-off might start and extend the move towards the level of $169.68, which is a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the whole up move. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $176.00.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $203.37

WR2 - $196.19

WR1 - $190.39

Weekly Pivot - $183.21

WS1 - $177.25

WS2 - $170.00

WS3 - $164.35

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

analytics5dd6348f24ea6.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 21/11/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

The United States Federal Reserve System is exploring the possibility of developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and what problems and risks it can potentially create.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell responded to a request by US representatives French Hill and Bill Fosters to see if the Federal Reserve plans to launch a national digital currency.

In his letter, Powell outlined the Federal Reserve's views on the creation of the CBDC, stressing that although the agency is not currently developing the CBDC, it has assessed and continues to assess the costs and benefits of such an initiative. Powell revealed that the agency is conducting its own small research-oriented experiments to gain practical experience and to better understand the capabilities and limitations of CBDC.

Powell said that before issuing the CBDC, the Federal Reserve must answer a number of legal questions, including monetary and payment policy, financial stability, supervision and operational issues, and their vulnerability to cyberattacks:

"If the project is to be financially transparent and provide protection against illegal activities, a general-purpose CBDC may probably require the Federal Reserve to keep a record of all payment data in digital currency [...], and sometimes this raises problems related to data privacy and information security" - he continued.

Finally, Powell noted that a number of design features should be considered when developing the CBDC, including the management of the currency's inventory, the need for the Federal Reserve's payment system to carry out transactions, and anonymity regarding CBDC ownership and transactions.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of $7,934 and the pair has been consolidating just above this level for the last 24h. The bears are in full control of the market and the level of $8,298 will now act as technical resistance. The down move is still continued then and so far there are no signs of any kind of a reversal. The next target for bears is $7,934 and $7,701.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,580

WR2 - $9,281

WR1 - $8,860

Weekly Pivot - $8,570

WS1 - $8,114

WS2 - $7,825

WS3 - $7,365

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

analytics5dd632ef7dd9c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. The Fed's

The euro-dollar pair ignored the "minutes" of the October meeting of the Fed which was published yesterday. And although most of the theses voiced were in favor of the American currency, the market considered the document obsolete, in view of the recent events on the front of US-Chinese relations. Indeed, some of the wording of the minutes are irrelevant today, and this fact reduces the importance of the release as a whole. Nevertheless, if we exclude the "Chinese factor", we can conclude that the regulator is quite satisfied with both the level of interest rate and the growth rate of the American economy.

analytics5dd6328b5e8cc.jpg

Speaking of the Fed's minutes, we can conduct an allegory with the stars on the night vault - basically we see the light of those celestial bodies that are no longer there. The American regulator, likewise, assesses the situation at the moment of "here and now", while the two-week time interval (from the moment of the meeting until the publication of the document) eliminates the relevance of the minutes. For example, regulator members, on October 31 (that is, at the time of the meeting), came to the conclusion that geopolitical risks, as well as trade uncertainty, significantly weakened, although they continued to affect the economy, restraining investment costs and exerting pressure on exports. It is worth recalling that there really was a period of "thaw" at that time, following the results of the US-Chinese negotiations. And despite the fact that the parties could not make a deal, they took several steps towards each other, and did not allow another escalation of the trade war. The meeting of the regulators was held almost immediately after the meeting of the delegations of the USA and China. Thus, their optimistic assessments were quite justified.

It was then, representatives of China and the United States announced in early November that they would not make significant concessions in the negotiations. The Americans refused to abolish the introduced duties, and the Chinese refused to fix the volume of planned purchases of agricultural products. And in general, the parties, following the results of the 13th round of negotiations, did not allow further escalation of the trade conflict, while the most complex and fundamental issues were not even discussed by the negotiators. Therefore, after a small surge of optimism, dollar bulls came to the reasonable conclusion that the prospects for the development of a trade war are still unclear. The recent events have only confirmed these concerns.

As you know, the US Senate unanimously passed a bill this week that actually supported the protesters in Hong Kong. This move aroused the anger of Beijing, which warned Washington that it would "take retaliatory measures" if the bill becomes law. At present, the document is in the House of Representatives, and if the congressmen agree on it (which is most likely), it will be sent for signature to the president. Considering the fact that all senators voted for the controversial bill, Trump is unlikely to reject it - the document will take the form of a law. In turn, currency exchange traders project these political events with the prospects of trade negotiations. According to most experts, the "Hong Kong issue" could significantly harm the negotiation process.

analytics5dd63277aaed9.jpg

At the same time, information appeared on the market that "in opposition to the Hong Kong issue, the White House could postpone the introduction of December duties so that the parties would nevertheless continue negotiations on the remaining points of a possible deal ("phase one"). According to various sources, not everyone in the presidential administration supports this idea. In particular, the US trade representative Lighthizer takes a tough position: he has repeatedly stated that Washington needs to exert some pressure on the Chinese side until consensus is reached on all key issues. In turn, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin defends a softer position on China - apparently, he is the main lobbyist for the conclusion of the "preliminary deal". Thus, it is still unknown whose side Donald Trump will eventually take. So far, he has voiced a tough position, but at the same time, the president has repeatedly changed his opinion on a particular issue by 180 degrees. Therefore, the intrigue remains here, and the unexpected denouement of this plot can completely "redraw" the fundamental picture for the dollar pairs.

Thus, the market quite reasonably ignored the "minutes" of the Fed. If it were not for the "Chinese factor", it would be safe to say that the process of reducing the interest rate has been put on a long-term pause - at least until the end of next year. However, in view of recent events, it is impossible to say this with certainty.

This fact puts background pressure on the US currency - the dollar index shows a weak, but still downward trend. At the same time, the European currency also feels uncomfortable - in the event of another escalation of the trade war, the ECB may resort to additional incentives, as some representatives of the European regulators have already warned. As a result, the EUR/USD pair is actually frozen in the flat, continuing to be in the price range of 1.0980-1.1090.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for November 21 - 2019

analytics5dd626cc22951.png

GBP/JPY moved higher from the low at 139.65. The break above minor resistance at 140.37 will indicate that blue wave ii has completed and blue wave iii towards 143.19 is developing. It may reach 144.58.

Support is now seen at 140.15 that may protect the downside for the expected rally higher towards 141.58 and 143.19 on the way higher towards 144.58. Only an unexpected break below 139.65 will extend the correction in blue wave ii.

R3: 141.58

R2: 140.94

R1: 140.54

Pivot: 140.37

S1: 140.15

S2: 139.84

S3: 139.65

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 140.12 with our stop placed at 139.30. If you are not long GBP yet, then buy a break above 140.37 and use the same stop at 139.30.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 21 - 2019

analytics5dd625149ba23.png

EUR/JPY has rallied from the 119.82 low. The break above minor resistance at 120.29 will indicate that blue wave ii has completed and blue wave iii towards 122.35 is developing. A break above resistance at 120.41 will confirm that blue wave iii is unfolding and might rally to 122.35 or higher to at least 123.58.

Support is now seen at 120.13 which may protect the downside for the expected break above 120.41. Only a break below 119.91 will extend the correction in blue wave ii.

R3: 121.13

R2: 120.85

R1: 120.48

Pivot: 120.29

S1: 120.13

S2: 119.91

S3: 119.82

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 117.25 with our stop placed at 119.30. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy a break above 120.41 and place you stop at 119.80.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 21/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD rally towards the level of 1.2988 did not last long as the price were capped around this technical resistance level, but the bulls are still trying to continue the up move. The local corrective pull-back seems to be completed and now might be the time to continue the rally. The momentum is now neutral, but due to the market coming off the overbought conditions, the momentum might get negative soon, which will not help the bullish case.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3108

WR2 - 1.3004

WR1 - 1.2968

Weekly Pivot - 1.2874

WS1 - 1.2826

WS2 - 1.2727

WS3 - 1.2680

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.3012 and it must be clearly violated. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.2231 - 1.2224 and the key long-term technical resistance is located at the level of 1.3509. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.1957 and below.

analytics5dd631e63161c.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 21/11/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair keeps consolidating in a narrow price range just below the level of 1.1084 in overbought market conditions. The momentum is still positive but is not that strong anymore. Nevertheless, the bulls are still in control of the price and are looking for another resistance to be tested. If the level of 1.1084 is violated, then the next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1109. The larget timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1148

WR2 - 1.1102

WR1 - 1.1085

Weekly Pivot - 1.1036

WS1 - 1.1017

WS2 - 1.0968

WS3 - 1.0949

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0999 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

analytics5dd630f13a460.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on November 21. Fed minutes did not clarify the further direction

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's minutes of the Federal Reserve, in which we did not see anything new, did not clarify the situation with the further direction of EUR/USD, keeping the pair in the side channel of 1.1056-1.1082. The Fed indicated an interest rate cut by the need to support a slowing economy. The market remains on the side of euro buyers, which managed to maintain the lower boundary of the channel yesterday. At the moment, the bulls need a breakthrough and consolidation above the range of 1.1082. This will return an upward trend and lead to an update of highs in the areas of 1.1109 and 1.1131, where I recommend profit taking. Only the minutes of the European Central Bank, which will be published today in the morning, can help. However, given that, as a rule, the market reaction to them is very weak, buyers will have to cope on their own. In the scenario of EUR/USD decline, purchases can again be observed only after the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.1056, but you can buy immediately for a rebound from a low of 1.1028.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Sellers once again achieved the formation of a false breakout in the level of 1.1082 yesterday, but failed to break below the support of 1.1056, which kept the market in balance. However, while trade will be below the range of 1.1082, we can expect the euro to fall further, especially if the minutes of the European Central Bank indicate the need to further stimulate the economy. The main goal of sellers will be to consolidate below support at 1.1056, which will push the pair further to the lows of 1.1028 and 1.0994, where I recommend profit taking. It is possible to talk about the formation of a new downward trend after the breakout of support at 1.1082. If demand for the euro returns today in the morning, it is best to go back to short positions to rebound from a new high of 1.1109, or sell the euro even higher - from the level of 1.1131.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1090 will lead to the formation of a new wave of growth in the euro. In case of decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary in the area of 1.1055.

analytics5dd634d7d577e.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan EURUSD 11/21/2019

analytics5dd62c6c43b33.jpg

Several stories affect the markets, but all with an uncertain outcome, which causes severe uncertainty.

US-China trade negotiations: Trump plans to sign the Senate bill in support of the protests in Hong Kong. This complicates negotiations. Moreover, on Wednesday, Trump, while visiting Apple's manufacturing facility, said that China was delaying negotiations and is "not doing enough" for an agreement. At the same time, Apple may receive exemptions on duties on the supply of parts from China.

The second plot is the impeachment of Trump. The process is developing against Trump - the evidence against him is growing. It plays against the dollar.

EURUSD:

We stand in the purchase of 1.1045 and expect continued growth.

Possible purchases at the breakthrough of 1.1085 up.

In the case of a downward reversal, we sell from 1.0985.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 11/21/2019 and trading recommendation

The quotation stubbornly follows along the range of 1.1080 with a low amplitude, as well as the activity of traders, although there was something to cling to. So yesterday, there was a publication of the text of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where it was clear from the document that the participants positively assessed the prospects for economic growth, and they also believe that negative interest rates are an inappropriate monetary policy tool in the United States. At the same time, the regulator noted that the risk of a slowdown in the global economy will continue to put pressure on the domestic economy. Referring to the FOMC minutes, we can say that in some way the market expectations coincided, the regulator intends to take a pause in actions regarding the interest rate cut and this meeting in December should confirm this.

Today the minutes of the October meeting of the European Central Bank will be published. Let me remind you that annual inflation in the EU slowed down last month, retreating further from the target level of the ECB.

In terms of statistical reporting, we have published applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which should be reduced by 4 thousand [Repeated +2 thousand; Primary -6 thousand.] Then we are waiting for data on sales in the secondary housing market in the US, for October, where they expect an acceleration of 1.4%.

EU 11:30 London time. - minutes of the ECB meeting

analytics5dd6305fcee30.png

In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to move along the control level of 1.1080 with an amplitude of just over 20 points, which signals a characteristic indecision of market participants for further actions. In fact, this kind of movement persists for the third consecutive day, which is by no means a lot, and the delay in the accumulation process should eventually lead to a surge in activity, which many market participants expect.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, we see a characteristic restraint, where the recovery process, with respect to the elongated correction, is not completed, confirmation of this is the current resistance point in the face of 1.1080, which is restraining buyers.

It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within the frames of 1.1055/1.1083 will continue for some time, where some traders have already entered short positions and hope to work out the control level and restore the recovery process. Other market participants are more restrained waiting for a clear exit of the price from the set boundaries, since there is still a risk of a return to the peak of 1.1180.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- Long positions, we consider in case of price consolidation higher than 1.1100.

- Short positions, we consider at a clear phase of the passage of the 1.1055 mark, not a shadow puncture.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that indicators on the hourly and daily periods have taken the upside, but at the same time signaling caution and a possible change of mood. Minute intervals go inside the existing accumulation, thereby the signal is varies.

analytics5dd6308013160.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, November 21,2019

analytics5dd614e26c4b3.jpg

When the European market opens, a report on the Consumer Confidence will be released The US will publish such economic data as Natural Gas Storage, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:Breakout BUY Level: 1.1131. Strong Resistance: 1.1125. Original Resistance: 1.1114. Inner Sell Area: 1.1103.Target Inner Area: 1.1077. Inner Buy Area: 1.1051. Original Support: 1.1040. Strong Support: 1.1029. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1023. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for November 21, 2019

analytics5dd61535bb0ba.jpg

Technical outlook:

EURUSD remains unchanged for now with prices drifting sideways in a tight range between 1.1050 and 1.1075, since last 2 trading days. Structurally, a major bottom could have already been formed at 1.0990 last week since that zone is defined by the past resistance turned support as well as Fibonacci convergence support around 1.0990/95 respectively. Ideally, prices should remain well capped above 1.0990 levels for any intraday dips. If this scenario comes true, the next rally may be between 1.0990 and 1.1090 levels respectively. We can expected prices to produce a corrective drop towards 1.1030 levels before finding support and resuming rally towards 1.1180 levels. Please note that the entire wave structure from 1.0879 until today remains constructive for bulls to resume rally through 1.1500 levels. It would be interesting to see how prices unfold after that resistance around 1.1500 is taken out.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0879, buy more at 1.1030 levels, target is 1.1500

Good lick!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level for USD/JPY, November 21,2019

analytics5dd6149d6e3f5.jpg

Japan will release a report on all industries' activity m/m. The US will publish such economic data as Natural Gas Storage, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Unemployment Claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance.3:109.00.Resistance. 2:108.80. Resistance. 1:108.59. Support. 1:108.29. Support. 2:108.08. Support. 3:107.88. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 21, 2019

EUR/USD

Euro is delayed at the resistance of the price channel line on the third day. The price only pierced the support of the balance line and returned to the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is becoming more and more neutral. And if formally the probability of the euro moving in any direction is the same, then the ripening upward trend is intensifying.

analytics5dd615d0c93c1.png

Price taking above the peak on November 18 (1.1090) will also mean automatic consolidation above the line of the price channel, and this can lead to an increase in the euro to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% at the price of 1.1155. The goal of the bears is also preserved - 1.1012 - support for the MACD line. There is a slight nuance in favor of the bears - the balance line approached the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, which makes the euro a little easier to consolidate under both of these lines on the second attempt.

analytics5dd615e681ac0.png

On the four-hour chart, the situation has not changed since yesterday - the price is developing above the lines of balance and MACD and the Marlin oscillator almost touches the boundary with the negative zone - the territory of the downward trend. The target level of 1.1012 with a price fall is expected to coincide with the MACD line. Support will increase, from it corrective growth is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on November 21, 2019

GBP/USD

The British pound fell by 40 points yesterday and returned to the opening of the day. The Marlin signal line only slightly penetrated into the negative trend zone. Nevertheless, this is still an indicator of the market's intention to move down. The purpose of the movement is the correctional level of 23.6% at 1.2767, which coincides with the low of November 8th.

analytics5dd614a1949a1.png

On a four-hour chart yesterday's movement appears in more detail. The downward movement was stopped at the Fibonacci level of 61.8% and the balance line. Price development under the line of balance means priority in a downward trend; finding a price above this line means a shift in the market balance towards purchases. Yesterday, the pound's attempt to change this balance did not work, we are waiting for the second attempt and, probably, more successful, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is kept in a downward trend, despite the local price growth.

analytics5dd614b694172.png

Intermediate targets when moving to 1.2767: 1.2872 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.2847 (28.2%), 1.2817 (23.6%).

An alternative scenario with a growth option can be realized upon receipt of the corresponding fundamental data (mainly of a political nature). The goal here is 1.3012 - the peak on October 21, intermediate levels 1.2975 and 1.2995.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on November 21, 2019

USD/JPY

THe dollar continues to fall against the yen. But it would be more accurate to say that this is amplified due to political tension in Hong Kong and the increased risk of failure of US-Chinese trade negotiations. On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the red line of the price channel, the Marlin oscillator continues to decline in the negative zone. The immediate goal of the movement will be the MACD line at 107.96. Probably, the support will be overcome and the price will go further down. The subsequent goal of 107.52 is to support the green price channel.

analytics5dd613a316acf.png

On a four-hour chart, the price is kept from rising by the MACD blue line. The indicator line of balance is also actively involved in this. The Marlin oscillator in the decreasing trend zone. We are waiting for the price at the indicated level of 107.96.

analytics5dd613b8b7f9e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on November 21

Forecast for November 21:

Analytical review of currency pairs on the scale of H1:

analytics5dd5e1fac1414.png

For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1149, 1.1125, 1.1108, 1.1081, 1.1060, 1.1038, 1.1022 and 1.1004. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 14. We expect short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, in the range of 1.1060 - 1.1081. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1108. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.1108 - 1.1125. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1149. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1038 - 1.1022. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.1004. This level is a key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will allow us to count on movement to the first potential target - 1.0986.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.1083 Take profit: 1.1106

Buy: 1.1025 Take profit: 1.1146

Sell: 1.1038 Take profit: 1.1022

Sell: 1.1021 Take profit: 1.1005

analytics5dd5e21fed8f2.png

For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3113, 1.3079, 1.3032, 1.2966, 1.2927, 1.2899, 1.2860 and 1.2817. Here, we continue to monitor the development of the upward cycle of November 8. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2966. In this case, the target is 1.3032. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3032 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3079. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3113. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2927 - 1.2899. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2860. This level is a key support for the upward structure from November 8. Its passage in price will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.2817.

The main trend is the upward cycle of November 8.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2967 Take profit: 1.3030

Buy: 1.3034 Take profit: 1.3079

Sell: 1.2896 Take profit: 1.2860

Sell: 1.2858 Take profit: 1.2818

analytics5dd5e238b35f8.png

For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9988, 0.9969, 0.9956, 0.9936, 0.9921, 0.9898, 0.9886 and 0.9867. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 18. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range 0.9921 - 0.9936. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.9956. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.9956 - 0.9969. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.9988. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9898 - 0.9886. Hence, there is a high probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 0.9886 will lead to the development of a downward movement. Here, the first goal is 0.9867.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9921 Take profit: 0.9934

Buy : 0.9938 Take profit: 0.9955

Sell: 0.9898 Take profit: 0.9887

Sell: 0.9884 Take profit: 0.9868

analytics5dd5e25427b81.png

For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 109.09, 108.91, 108.73, 108.44, 108.27, 108.06 and 107.92. Here, we are following the development of the local descending structure of November 18. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 108.44 - 108.27. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the target is 108.06. We consider the level of 107.92 to be a potential value for the bottom. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to correction in the range of 108.06 - 107.92.

Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation, are expected in the range of 108.73 - 108.91. We consider the level 109.09 to be the potential value for the top. We expect the initial conditions for the ascending cycle to be formed until this level.

The main trend: the downward structure of November 7; the local structure of November 18.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 108.73 Take profit: 108.90

Buy : 108.94 Take profit: 109.07

Sell: 108.44 Take profit: 108.29

Sell: 108.25 Take profit: 108.06

analytics5dd5e26edf3e3.png

For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3404, 1.3387, 1.3355, 1.3334, 1.3298, 1.3278 and 1.3250. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 19. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 1.3334 - 1.3355. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3387. Price consolidation is in the range of 1.3387 - 1.3404, and from here, we expect a correction.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3298 - 1.3278. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3250. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 19.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3335 Take profit: 1.3355

Buy : 1.3357 Take profit: 1.3385

Sell: 1.3296 Take profit: 1.3278

Sell: 1.3276 Take profit: 1.3252

analytics5dd5e292e5493.png

For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6892, 0.6872, 0.6859, 0.6839, 0.6821, 0.6801, 0.6783 and 0.6767. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6821. In this case, the first target is 0.6840, wherein price consolidation is near this level. Its breakdown will allow you to expect pronounced movement. Here, the goal is 0.6859. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6859 - 0.6872 For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6892. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are expected in the range of 0.6801 - 0.6783. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the first target is 0.6767.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6821 Take profit: 0.6837

Buy: 0.6840 Take profit: 0.6857

Sell : 0.6780 Take profit : 0.6768

Sell: Take profit:

analytics5dd5e2b5809e0.png

For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.40, 121.12, 120.70, 120.35, 120.03, 119.83, 119.51 and 119.25. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 14. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.35. Here, the goal is 120.70. Price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 120.70 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 121.12. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 121.40. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 120.03 - 119.83. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 119.51. This level is a key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of November 14.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 120.35 Take profit: 120.68

Buy: 120.72 Take profit: 121.10

Sell: 120.03 Take profit: 119.83

Sell: 119.80 Take profit: 119.51

analytics5dd5e2da06f73.png

For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 142.14, 141.93, 141.57, 141.02, 140.49, 140.18 and 139.79. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of November 14. At the moment, the price is in deep correction. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 141.02. In this case, the first goal is 141.57. The breakdown of which will allow us to count on movement to the level of 142.14. Upon reaching this value, we expect consolidation in the range of 141.93 - 142.14.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range 140.18 - 139.79. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the cancellation of the ascending structure of November 14. In this case, the first target is 139.36.

The main trend is the rising structure of November 14, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.02 Take profit: 141.55

Buy: 141.58 Take profit: 141.93

Sell: 140.16 Take profit: 139.84

Sell: 139.76 Take profit: 139.38

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR/USD vs GBP/USD vs USD/JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options for November 21, 2019. APLs &

Once again, let's talk about the "majors". Here's a comprehensive analysis of the movement options of #USDX, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY on H4 for November 21, 2019 on the Minuette operational scale forks.

____________________

US dollar index

From November 21, 2019, the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 98.10 (the initial line of SSL of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level of 97.90 (1/2 Median Line Minuette).

Consecutive breakdown of resistance levels :

- 98.10 (starting line SSL Minuette);

- 98.15 (the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel);

- 98.23 (control line UTL Minuette);

will determine the continuation of the upward movement of the dollar index to the local maximum of 98.45 and the equilibrium zone (98.53 - 98.90 - 99.25) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

In case of breakdown of 1/2 Median Line Minuette (support level of 97.90), the option of developing a downward movement of #USDX to targets: the lower boundary of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette (97.65) - start line SSL Minuette (97.37) - equilibrium zone (97.30 - 97.05 - 96.82) of the Minuette operational scale forks, will continue.

The details of the #USDX movement are presented on the animated chart.

analytics5dd56f6b85742.jpg

____________________

Euro vs US dollar

Similarly, the development of the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from November 21, 2019 will also be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the range :

  • resistance level of 1.1070 (lower boundary of the ISL38.2 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks);
  • support level 1.1045 (upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel)

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1045 will cause the EUR/USD movement to be developed in the 1/2 Median Line channel again (1.1045 - 1.1025 - 1.1010) of the Minuette operational scale forks, and in case of breakdown of the lower boundary (1.1010) of this channel, the downward movement of this currency instrument may be continued towards goals: start line SSL Minuette (1.0995) - local minimum 1.0989 - end Schiff Line Minuette (1.0980) - control line LTL Minuette (1.0960) - upper line ISL38.2 (1.0945) equilibrium zones of the Minuette operational scale forks.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the resistance level 1.1070 (ISL38.2 Minuette), the development of the single European currency movement will begin to occur in the equilibrium zones (1.1070 - 1.1095 - 1.1115) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of reaching the warning line UWL38.2 (1.1150) of the Minuette operational scale.

The details of the EUR/USD movement options are shown on the animated chart.

analytics5dd56f980b5b0.jpg

____________________

Great Britain pound vs US dollar

On November 21, 2019, the development of Her Majesty's currency movement GBP/USD will also be determined by the development and the direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2905 - 1.2880 - 1.2855) of the Minuette operational scale forks. Look at the animated chart for the movement details within this channel.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 1.2855), the development of the GBP / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zones (1.2855 - 1.2820 - 1.2785) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the local minimum 1.2768 and reaching the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (1.2735) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Alternatively, the breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 1.2905) will direct the development of Her Majesty's currency movement towards the goals: initial SSL line (1.2960) of the Minuette operational scale forks - local maximums (1.2985 - 1.3012) - initial SSL line (1.3040) of the Minuette operational scale forks - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.3080).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

analytics5dd56fc213b63.jpg

____________________

US dollar vs Japanese yen

The development of the currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" USD/JPY from November 21, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the range:

  • resistance level of 108.60 (1/2 Median Line Minuette);
  • support level of 108.40 (control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks)

The breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette (resistance level of 108.60) - option for the development of the upward movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to goals: upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (108.90) - 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (108.95 - 109.15 - 109.30) - maximum 109.50 - lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (109.65) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale forks.

Consecutive breakdown of support levels :

- 108.40 - control line LTL of the Minuette operational scale forks;

- 108.33- lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel;

- 108.25 - local minimum;

will confirm the continuation of the development of the downward movement of USD / JPY to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (107.95 - 107.55 - 107.10) of the Minuette operational scale forks.

The details of the USD / JPY movement are presented on the animated chart.

analytics5dd56ffba3811.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index : USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound is set to win

analytics5dd5e1ee9d84a.jpg

The future of the British currency is very controversial, experts said. A pound pendulum can swing both in the direction of growth and decline. However, most analysts believe in the victory of the pound, which occasionally proves itself in full force.

The actively growing sterling slightly slowed down on Tuesday, November 19. The GBP/USD pair reached 1.2945, but after a while it fell.

analytics5dd5e202de6e1.png

The pair began a smooth fall last night, dropping to 1.2940. Earlier, the GBP/USD pair was pushed up by the positive attitude of investors who believed in the upcoming victory of the Conservative Party in the December elections. Recall, in the case of the implementation of such a scenario, a deal with the EU regarding Brexit, initiated by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, may receive approval in Parliament.

analytics5dd5e26215c7b.png

The deal can be considered done if the Conservatives win, experts said. According to opinion polls, the likelihood of such a scenario is very high.

One of the drivers for the pound's growth may be an increase in budget spending. Similar plans are being developed by two key UK parties - Conservatives and Laborites. Recall that these parties promised to increase government spending ahead of the general elections scheduled for December 12, 2019. According to analysts of the largest bank JP Morgan, this can cause a rapid increase in government bond yields. In case the yield of state bonds increase, one can expect the national currency to grow the bank emphasizes. A similar situation will be in the hands of the pound, which slightly lost yesterday's supply of vigor.

The pound was trading in the low range of 1.2908–1.2909 on Wednesday morning, November 20, making timid attempts to rise. According to analysts, a slight decrease in the GBP/USD pair may be corrective. They allow a slight drop after eight days of almost continuous rise.

analytics5dd5e373cdfe8.png

At the moment, the pound is trying to move up, although it lacks momentum. The GBP/USD pair runs in the range of 1.2913-1.2914, trying to stay on the conquered positions.

analytics5dd5e38abe243.png

Experts consider the psychologically important bar of 1.3000 as the pair's immediate target. The sterling was close to it yesterday as never before, but could not overcome this barrier. Unfortunately, it had to retreat, but experts are sure that this pullback is temporary.

The current dynamics of the British currency is not too volatile, but from time to time there are strong differences. Most likely, the upcoming elections will enhance this effect, but the pound is determined to hold on to the last and not give up its positions. The market is counting on the success of the sterling, keeping its finger on the pulse in anticipation of future changes.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. November 20. Results of the day. The US dollar is showing growth ahead of the publication of the Fed minutes

4-hour timeframe

analytics5dd5deb367222.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p - 63p - 52p - 81p - 60p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 59p (average).

The British pound paired with the US currency began a rather strong downward correction (based on its size in the graph), which in absolute terms is quite small and weak, like all of the pair's movements in the last few weeks, when the GBP/USD pair is "sick" with a kind of flat. At the moment, the pair has dropped to the critical Kijun-sen line, which it has almost overcome, but it looks like the pair will slightly pull back in the US trading session. One way or another, the bulls did not manage to overcome the previous local high of 1.2975, but only pierced it. Thus, we believe that, from a technical point of view, there are now much more chances for the pair to continue to fall than to grow. If we add the fundamental background to this, which remains sharply negative in the long term for the British currency, then it seems that it is inevitable for the pound. Only positive expectations from the election results can keep traders from selling the British currency, which is set to take place after three weeks. It was with this factor that the pound managed to rise in price to the level of 1.3000. Now the bears need to successfully overcome the Kijun-sen line, which will open the pair down to the support levels of 1.2836 and 1.2818.

About the elections to the Parliament of Great Britain, until which, we recall, in another three weeks, it has already been written so much that it can not be counted. However, all this information, which, in essence, boils down to calculating the likelihood of a Conservative victory with the required number of deputy mandates, is now of little significance. No one can accurately predict how the election will end - no opinion polls and studies, no TV debates, no loud statements by leaders. Therefore, we propose to move slightly away from the topic of elections and concentrate on the question "when will traders begin to respond to macroeconomic statistics and why do not they respond to it now?" This is a very interesting question, as, as we all remember, last week traders immediately ignored five major macroeconomic reports from the UK, including GDP, industrial production, inflation, and wages. It seems that most traders believe that the current slowdown in the UK economy is absolutely unimportant, since Brexit will take place and all problems will be resolved by the mere presence of a divorce with the European Union. Well, or Boris Johnson, who, recall, has not won a single victory as prime minister, will solve all the problems. After all, the prime minister has repeatedly stated that Brexit is not as scary as the opposition and opponents of withdrawing from the EU describe it. He was talking about the "hard" Brexit. But Brexit with the deal, according to Johnson, is not at all scary. Yes, there will be a certain negative impact on the economy, but the country will conclude a huge trade agreement with the United States, which was promised by Donald Trump. We believe that such a development is unlikely. How the elections will end are unclear. If Conservatives do not win by a significant margin, then Brexit will drag on for some time. Trump's words often mean completely different from what they really are. Thus, the optimism of traders who rushed to buy the British pound is excessive and premature.

Well, from a technical point of view, we believe that the downward movement of the pair will continue. For this, of course, you need to wait for the critical line to be overcome, after which it will be possible to count on a fall to the level of 1.2836 and 1.2818, at least. We should not forget about the rather weak volatility.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair began to adjust. Thus, it is recommended that traders now consider buying the British pound with a target at the resistance level of 1.2951 and higher if a rebound from the Kijun-sen line occurs. However, we advise opening long positions in small lots, since there are still few reasons for the pair to grow from a fundamental point of view. It is recommended to return to sales no earlier than when the bears consolidate below the Kijun-sen line, also in small lots with the target of 1.2836.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. November 20. Results of the day. The dollar shows amazing resistance to the threats of escalating trade conflict

4-hour timeframe

analytics5dd5db4646e5b.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 25p - 39p - 42p - 40p - 21p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 33p (low).

The EUR/USD currency pair started a downward correction against a weak upward trend, which is likely to end near the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. The upward trend still persists at the moment, as the euro/dollar continues to trade above the critical line. A price rebound from this line may provoke a resumption of the upward movement, but now everything looks like a call to a new long-term drop in the European currency. We also do not expect the euro to fall below two-year lows from a fundamental point of view. There are no good fundamental reasons for this, but they are not for the serious strengthening of the euro. Not a single important macroeconomic report was made available to traders in the first three trading days of the week. Therefore, the markets and the international community can only continue to discuss a possible new round of escalation of the trade conflict between China and the United States, the topic of the impeachment of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve minutes, which will be published tonight and with a 90% probability its content can be predicted now. Let us consider in more detail each of these factors.

In recent days, amid new statements and threats by Trump against China, traders again began to discuss a trade war and look for an answer to the question of what will happen if the parties do not agree and introduce new duties against each other. Indeed, China has not yet announced the introduction of duties, if the parties fail to agree, then there is no doubt that it will do so, since it has always responded with mirror measures to Trump's actions. In addition to threats about the introduction of new duties on Chinese imports, Trump also said that China should sign the deal that is beneficial to America. The US president does not mention why China should sign an unprofitable deal for it. However, it is not a secret for anyone that the US leader believes that Beijing needs this deal and, from his point of view, China still has to convince Washington of the advisability of signing a trade agreement. Expediency will only come when the agreement is the way Trump wants it. We believe that Trump's position obviously will not lead to de-escalation of the trade conflict. Political ratings of the US president will also suffer, although again, according to Trump himself, the current ratings are at its highest for his entire presidency.

However, the topic of ratings already refers to the Congress's investigation of the illegal activities of Trump, which, theoretically, could lead to impeachment. Few people now believe in impeachment, even the Democrats, although in public, of course, they say that the president who exceeded his authority deserves such a sentence. Trump himself said that Democrats use the topic of impeachment exclusively for political dividends, but they have the exact opposite effect. "Democrats do what they considered impossible and what the founding fathers of the United States did not want, they use falsified impeachment to receive political dividends. They try to harm the Republican Party, the US president, but achieve the opposite effect. You saw the poll - I have the highest level of support for all time," the US president said. Anticipating the question of what kind of rating he has now and where it was published, Trump said: "You won't hear about it on television, because the media and the democrats are one and the same."

Well, as for the evening publication of the minutes of the FOMC meeting, here, from our point of view, everything is as simple as possible. After three consecutive cuts in the key rate, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to go to fourth. There is no reason for this now, and many experts are even asking the question - is the Fed going lower and lower? Trump's criticism and pressure on Powell is certainly a good reason, but nonetheless. Thus, given the escalation of the trade conflict with China, the Fed, of course, can soften its monetary policy one or more times in the future, but not in the near future. Jerome Powell hinted at this, and most experts agree that three cuts would be enough to stop the impending recession. Thus, the Fed minutes is unlikely to contain any dovish notes and, for obvious reasons, will be clear of hawkish theses. Based on this, we believe that the minutes will not contain anything overly important and interesting.

The technical picture of the euro/dollar pair is also as clear as possible. The pair is correcting, maintaining the chances of continued upward movement. However, as long as it is inside the Ichimoku cloud, there remain some doubts about the strength of the bulls and their desire to continue buying the euro without any fundamental reasons and macroeconomic statistics. By the way, the growing likelihood of an escalation of the trade war with China has no negative impact on the US dollar, nor does the development of the theme of the impeachment of Trump.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair began to adjust. Thus, it is now recommended at least to wait until the completion of the current correction, and then consider the purchase of the pair, but only in small lots, since the current movement is still identified as corrective. We recommend that you wait until the level of 1.1101 is overcome when buying the euro. It is advised to return to purchasing the US dollar no earlier than the reconsolidation of the euro/dollar pair below the critical Kijun-sen line with the aim of the support level of 1,1008.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movements:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fears of a trade war: The loonie ignored inflation data and keeps getting cheaper

The Bank of Canada's final meeting for this year will take place exactly two weeks from now on December 4. But already now, disputes regarding the further actions of the Canadian regulator are not ceasing among experts. The contradictory fundamental picture does not allow any unambiguous conclusions to be drawn: there are arguments both in favor of maintaining a wait-and-see attitude and in favor of easing monetary policy. Today's data on the growth of Canadian inflation did not help resolve this rebus, as a result of which the USD/CAD pair showed increased volatility, continuing the trend of recent days. After the release, the price initially fell to daily lows, and then jumped to 1.3320, updating the monthly high. After a short pause, the bulls of the pair continued to test this resistance level, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart.

analytics5dd5d5e65cb04.jpg

Thus, the reaction of USD/CAD traders to today's release turned out to be quite fleeting. In fact, the market reacted in a fleeting manner to the published figures (all the more so since they reached the forecast level), after which the loonie returned to more pressing problems. The Canadian dollar is getting cheaper for the second day in a row, and even relatively good data on inflation growth could not significantly affect the situation. The market is primarily concerned with external risks, especially in light of the previous rhetoric of Bank of Canada representatives. Stephen Poloz focused on the continuing uncertainty in the light of the ongoing trade conflict at the last meeting of the Canadian central bank

The regulator also downward revised its forecasts for Canada's GDP growth next year (from 1.9% to 1.7%). Poloz expressed concern about the level of consumer spending, declining business investment and export volumes. The latest release on Canada's GDP growth came out in the red zone, not justifying the forecasts of most analysts: on an annualized basis, the indicator was at zero level (with a weak forecast of growth to 0.1%), while in annual terms it dropped to 1. 3% (with a forecast of growth to 1.4%). The labor market data was also disappointing: for the first time since July, the employment growth rate was in the negative area - the number of jobs decreased by almost two thousand. And this despite the fact that for two months, experts marked a record increase in the indicator (in August it grew by 80 thousand, and in September - almost 54 thousand). Despite the October forecast of growth of 14 thousand jobs, the indicator showed a negative trend.

Today's inflation growth data could offset investors' concerns about monetary policy prospects. The core consumer price index continues to stay close to target levels, and this fact could allow the Canadian regulator to continue to pause. But the possible escalation of the trade war has mixed up all the cards: the market is seriously concerned that Washington and Beijing will resume hostilities in the near future, raising the degree of tension in the financial world.

analytics5dd5d5f9c3869.jpg

Trade negotiations between the countries stalled last week, when the parties refused to make mutual concessions: the Chinese refused to agree to a fixed volume of purchases of American agricultural products, the White House, in turn, refused to cancel the September duties and (planned) December duties.

The situation was significantly aggravated today when the Congress Senate unanimously voted for the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. It is noteworthy that all senators, both Republicans and Democrats, voted for this document. This suggests that it will be difficult for Trump to argue his refusal to sign it. Now the bill has been sent to the House of Representatives, and from there (if approved) it will fall into the Oval Office. If the bill becomes law, it will impose certain sanctions on the Hong Kong administration, and will also oblige the US Secretary of State to confirm at least once a year that Hong Kong maintains a sufficient level of autonomy. If the answer is yes, the United States may grant "special trade status" to Hongkongers. China's reaction to the bill was predictable: they protested and warned that Beijing would retaliate "if the bill becomes law." According to China, Washington is interfering in the internal affairs of China, thereby violating the fundamental formula of the relationship "one country, two systems."

Such a political background suggests that no friendly steps can be expected from China or the United States in the context of trade negotiations. Markets are gradually preparing for a possible escalation of the global trade conflict, and the Canadian dollar is reacting most sharply to recent events. Bank of Canada representatives have repeatedly warned investors that they could resort to preventive measures if trade uncertainty increases. In the light of such prospects, the Canadian dollar has lost its foothold - and judging by the reaction to today's release, internal statistics are not able to regain the loonie's self-confidence.

All this suggests that the USD/CAD pair retains the potential for its growth to the main resistance level of 1.3400 - at this price point, the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the weekly chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading idea for the AUD/USD pair

Good evening, dear traders! The growth of AUD / USD is what is interesting today. As we remember, unemployment data was published in Australia last week on November 14, to which this instrument reacted negatively: the AUD/USD currency pair was declining throughout the whole day. An important detail is that during the fall, an important extreme at 0.6810 was updated. Thus, I believe that this was a culmination of the downward trend in November, and given the reaction of the Australian dollar to this week's news, I think that local growth is possible to the level of 0.6843, which is the news' high on Wednesday. Now, why exactly this level? It's simple - every seller who believes in a further fall of this instrument will clearly depend precisely on the news impulse on November 14, so the price can go there with a high degree of probability.

analytics5dd5cf772d1f3.png

Recommendation: try to buy in order to update the level of 0.6943. At the same time, losses can be limited to the lowest level of 0.6788 - there is no sense in holding purchases below, and in case of updating this minimum, the bullish scenario can be considered invalid.

Wishing you all success in trading and huge profits!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com