Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 15/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

An online survey by ING banking giant shows that Austrians are most skeptical of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general. A survey in which respondents from 15 countries show that the positive attitude towards Bitcoin is also weakening in other countries.

Austrians are generally conservative in terms of investment, but they are very skeptical about cryptocurrencies, and only 13% see digital currencies in a positive light.

Attitudes towards cryptocurrencies have deteriorated since last year's survey. This year, 17% of Austrians believe that cryptocurrency is the future of digital payments, compared to 20% last year. And now only 14% believe that this is a significant form of investment, unlike 17% last year.

Only 5% of Austrians would consider paying wages in Bitcoins. According to the study, Austrians know more than most nations about cryptocurrencies, but prefer to avoid risk and volatility as much as possible.

Of the 13 European nations (and Australia and the United States), most have seen a decline in their positive attitude towards crypto compared to last year. Turkey, Poland, and Romania were exceptions. 43% and 44% of respondents from Poland and Romania issued positive opinions about cryptocurrencies. In contrast, in Turkey, 62% are positive about crypto, and 36% will be happy to receive payment in Bitcoins.

However, Austrians see the value of Blockchain technology. Graz, an energy trading company, plans to use the DLT-based platform in the pursuit of zero-emission energy distribution.

Technical Market Overview:

The Elliott wave scenario at the ETH/USD pair has been updated as the last one had been invalidated due to the wave overlap. Currently, the top at the level of $238.68 is the wave XX high and the recent decline is the wave Z of the correction in progress. The target for the wave C might have been reached (1:1 market geometry principle), but if the momentum will keep strong, then the decline might deepen towards the level of $149.33. Please keep in mind, that there is a clear bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator at the daily time frame chart.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $274.14

WR2 - $256.36

WR1 - $233.10

Weekly Pivot - $214.72

WS1 - $193.28

WS2 - $173.99

WS3 - $150.66

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The current cycle is wave 2 of the higher degree and it might have been completed, so the uptrend should resume sooner or later. We are waiting for a breakout above the level of $238.68 to confirm the bullish momentum.

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Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 15/08/2019:

Crypto Industry News:

Samsung's South Korean technology conglomerate has quietly added Bitcoin support to its decentralized app store, Blockchain Keystore.

According to updated information on the Samsung Developers site, Keystore now supports Bitcoin, as well as Klaytn, a cryptocurrency released by Korean Internet giant Cocoa.

As noted on the site, Samsung's Blockchain Keystore is supported by six of its devices - Galaxy S10e, S10, S10 +, S10 5G, Note10 and Note10 + - and in six jurisdictions: Canada, Germany, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, the United States and Great Britain.

Keystore was first released in July this year as part of the Blockchain package and the Samsung Decentralized Application (DApp) Software Development Kit (SDK) that provides account management as well as backup, payment and digital signature. It is noteworthy that at first Keystore only supported Ethereum Blockchain.

Earlier this month, Samsung expanded the SDK with two new services - DApp with digital analytics called "Jupiter" and a peer-to-peer wallet based on the QR code called "Mars" and integrated them with Galaxy S10 and newer versions of Samsung smartphones.

In parallel to Samsung, the Taiwanese consumer electronics giant HTC also introduced a smartphone with Blockchain technology, called "Exodus", which was introduced in autumn 2018.

Technical Market Overview:

The Bullish Flag pattern on the BTC/USD pair at the H4 timeframe has been invalidated as the price broken through the level of $10,000. The Bitcoin sell-off is accelerating and the next target for bears is seen at the level of $9,9231. Any violation of the level of $9,049 will invalidate the impulsive scenario. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,166.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $13,583

WR2 - $12,879

WR1 - $12,118

Weekly Pivot - $11,389

WS1 - $10,550

WS2 - $9,816

WS3 - $9,007

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are being treated as a correction inside of the uptrend. The larger degree WXY correction might have been completed and the market might be ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 15/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The volatility on the holiday season is at the lows and it can be clearly seen at the GBP/USD pair, that has broken out of the narrow consolidation zone to the downside and made a local low at the level of 1.2014. So far no new local low was made and the price bounced higher as the bulls are trying to defend the support. The bears have managed to push the price towards the key long-term technical support located at the level of 1.1988 and this level is very important. The bulls might defend the support, but if the level is clearly violated without a fight, then the price will extend the drop much lower, so there must be some bullish reaction on this level, otherwise, the damage will be even worse.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2303

WR2 - 1.2249

WR1 - 1.2110

Weekly Pivot - 1.2066

WS1 - 1.1921

WS2 - 1.1875

WS3 - 1.1728

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. Please keep an eye on the key technical support located at the level of 1.1988, some kind of bounce might be expected after this level is hit.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 15/08/2019:

Technical Market Overview:

The Bullish Flag price pattern has been invalidated as the market has moved below the support at the level of 1.1167. The move down stopped so far at the level of 1.1138 which is a 50% Fibonacci retracement. The market conditions are now oversold, so a slight pullback can occur soon. Please notice that this time of the year the volatility might get limited due to the summer season, so it might take a while to make a breakout in this market conditions. The larget timeframe trend remains bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1413

WR2 - 1.1325

WR1 - 1.1264

Weekly Pivot - 1.1187

WS1 - 1.1117

WS2 - 1.1041

WS3 - 1.0978

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is completed or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon.

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Trading plan for EURUSD on 08/15/2019

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The optimism caused by the postponement of Trump's new duties against China until December 15 was short-lived. The US market showed a strong decline. Investors take profits after 10 years of market growth.

After almost a week of consolidation, the euro has broken down the border of the range - down.

The break below 1.1160 is a fairly strong signal to decline.

Nevertheless, the main barrier on the way down is 1.1025

We keep sales from 1.1160 stop 1.1205.

We sell from 1.1025.

We buy from 1.1230.

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Burning forecast for GBP/USD on 08/15/2019 and trading recommendation

Macroeconomic reporting of the environment surprised traders with their data, but on the contrary, the market remained an adherent of the main trend. So, the inflation rate in the United Kingdom accelerated from 2.0% to 2.1%, while expecting a slowdown to 1.9%. Naturally, this kind of news had a short-term effect in favor of the pound sterling, but after which the quotation returned to its original course. The pressure from the "divorce" process of Brexit puts pressure on the market, in particular on the British currency, turning a blind eye to all other factors that arise along the way. So the European Commission called on London to explain its ideas about Brexit, since there have been no concrete negotiations between Britain and the European Union for several months now, and all of London's statements regarding the revision of the agreement were extremely ultimatum.

Today, in terms of macroeconomic reporting, we have data on retail sales in the United Kingdom, where they forecast a slowdown from 3.8% to 2.6% (y/y). What can put pressure on the pound? In the afternoon, a similar indicator will be released in the United States, where slowdowns are also expected from 3.4% to 3.2% (y/y). Along the way, data on industrial production will be released, where there is a slowdown from 1.3% to 1.2%. Statistical data for both countries do not shine positive, but referring to the general market background, the growth potential of the dollar is higher than that of the pound.

Great Britain 11:30 Moscow time. - Retail Sales: Year over Year: Prev 3.8% ----> Prog. 2.6%

USA 12:30 London time. - Retail Sales: Year over Year: Prev 3.4% ----> Prog. 3.2%

USA 13:15 London time. - Industrial production on an annualized basis: Prev 1.3% ----> Prog. 1.2%

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The GBP/USD pair, after a pullback from the level of 1.2000, went into a sharp accumulation phase of 1.2045/1.2100, which certainly aroused the interest of market participants. This kind of stagnation often arises due to uncertainty and, as a result, goes into sharp leaps in the market. Looking at the trading chart in general terms, we see that a downward trend is prevailing in the market, and in turn, short positions are being built up by traders, due to the aggravating situation in the United Kingdom.

It is likely to assume that at the slightest pressure of the information and news background, the current stagnation of 1.2045/1.2100 will fall and traders are advised to carefully monitor the price consolidation points relative to the existing boundaries so as not to miss the jump, which will definitely make money.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

  • We consider long positions in case the price consolidates higher than 1.2100, with the prospect of a move to 1.2100-2150-1.2200.
  • We consider short positions in case of the price clearly consolidates lower than 1.2037, with an initial jump to 1.2015. The further course is considered after a clear consolidation below the psychological level of 1.2000, preferably below 1.1970.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we can see that indicators tend to decline at all major time intervals. It is worth considering one point that if the fluctuation within the accumulation framework persists, the indicators on the minute periods will jump erratically, which in turn misleads the trader.

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Overview of GBP/USD on August 15. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Boris Johnson's strategy for Brexit resembles

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -65.3342

Frankly speaking, there is an impression that Boris Johnson has no accurate plan of action. He quickly refused new negotiations with the European Union, only pretending that he wants to resume them. However, according to many political scientists and experts, the proposal to "delete backstop from the text of the agreement" was a failure. That is, it's about how to offer the European Union out of the blue to abandon the British payment of 50 billion euros for Brexit. Thus, with such a "generous" offer, it was immediately clear that there would be no new negotiations. After the form was made, Johnson began to actively promote "hard" script, not forgetting to regularly deliver speeches accusing the government of the European Union in the refusal of new negotiations, which could help to avoid disordered Brexit. Now, Johnson's "work" has found application in Parliament. Logically fearing that most parliamentarians would refuse to support the "hard" Brexit, Johnson began to accuse Labor and all opponents of such a scenario in cooperation with the EU and not patriotism. In public, again, Johnson looks like a leader who leads his country to implement the will of 2016, but he is actively prevented by Labor, the EU government. The same strategy was used by Theresa May, who actively urged the Parliament to vote for her "deal", also accusing her of non-patriotism, lack of unity at a difficult moment for the country. Well, the pound sterling can only watch everything happening and wait for October 31. And if the "hard" Brexit will still be implemented, the loss of the pound in 2019 can be much worse than the current. The pound/dollar pair remains close to historic lows, while the bulls remain outside the forex market.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2054

S2 – 1.2024

S3 – 1.1993

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2085

R2 – 1.2115

R3 – 1.2146

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is inclined to resume the downward trend. Therefore, it is still recommended to sell the British currency with the targets of 1.2024 and 1.1993 until the new turn of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top. The mood of traders is definitely "bearish", so purchases are associated with high risks.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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Overview of EUR/USD on August 15. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The euro currency is not in demand among

4-hour timeframe

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Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -139.1804

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on August 15 after a series of unsuccessful attempts to overcome the Murray level of "4/8", as well as after the next "excellent" macroeconomic reports from the eurozone. Industrial production in Europe fell by 2.6% y/y and traders did not even react to this news but the sale of the euro/dollar pair still began. The technical picture indicates a downward movement, as the pair failed to update the previous local maximum (1.1283), most of the indicators are directed downwards. From a fundamental point of view, the situation also remains in favor of the US currency, as we do not receive any positive news from Europe. In the United States, reports on the changes in industrial production for July with a forecast of +0.2% m/m and retail sales for July with a forecast of +0.3% m/m will be published today. In principle, there is no particular reason to expect the failure of these reports, so the dollar may receive support at the American trading session. Otherwise, there are no new and interesting events in America and Europe now. Trump continues to fight with China, Europe continues to fight the Italian crisis and is preparing for a "divorce" from the UK. Both regulators, the Fed and the ECB, are preparing to ease monetary policy.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.1047

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair ended the flat and resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is recommended to buy the American currency with targets at 1.1108 and 1.1047 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up, which will indicate a round of upward correction.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for August 15 - 2019

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GBP/JPY remains locked below the short-term important resistance at 129.31. If the pair breaks this resistance, a long-term low at 126.52 looks quite possible.

Minor support at 127.70 is currently being tested and expected to withstand the pressure for a break above minor resistance at 128.67 and more importantly, a break above resistance at 129.31 that will confirm a bottom being in place for a rally towards 132.96 and higher.

Only below support at 126.82 will call for renewed downside pressure and a dip below 126.52.

R3: 129.65

R2: 129.23

R1: 128.51

Pivot: 127.94

S1: 127.44

S2: 127.05

S3: 126.82

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 127.80 with our stop at 126.70

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 15 - 2019

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Support at 118.41 has failed to hold up EUR/JPY and the pair is now threatening to break below short-term important support at 117.69. If this support fails too, then a new low for the decline from 127.50 should be expected closer to 116.75.

Only a direct break back above minor resistance at 119.11 will ease the downside pressure and call for a re-test of resistance in the 119.88 - 119.59 area.

R3: 119.11

R2: 118.70

R1: 118.25

Pivot: 117.69

S1: 117.49

S2: 117.15

S3: 116.75

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.40 with our stop placed at 117.40

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Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels For EUR/USD, August 15, 2019

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When the European market opens, no economic data will be released, while the US will publish the economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Natural Gas Storage, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories m/m, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Core Retail Sales m/m, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1198. Strong Resistance: 1.1192. Original Resistance: 1.1181. Inner Sell Area: 1.1170. Target Inner Area: 1.1144. Inner Buy Area: 1.1118. Original Support: 1.1107. Strong Support: 1.1096. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1090. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important Intraday Levels for USD/JPY, August 15, 2019

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In Asia, Japan will release the Revised Industrial Production m/m and the US will publish some economic data such as TIC Long-Term Purchases, Natural Gas Storage, NAHB Housing Market Index, Business Inventories m/m, Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Core Retail Sales m/m. So there is a probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance.3 : 106.46. Resistance. 2: 106.21. Resistance. 1: 106.01. Support. 1: 105.78. Support. 2: 105.58. Support. 3: 105.37. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Italy and weak European reports pull the pair to the bottom of the 11th figure

The European currency remains under pressure. The euro has come under pressure not only from the political crisis in Italy but also from frustratingly weak macroeconomic reports. The negative fundamental picture pulls the EUR/USD pair down to the base of the 11th figure, even despite the uncertain positions of the American currency. However, the nearest significant support is slightly lower at around 1.1080, where the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart passes. EUR/USD bears are gradually approaching this target, although breaking the 1.1100 mark will be a daunting task for them.

It is worth noting that the EUR/USD pair holds within the 11th figure only due to the relatively weak dollar. Too many factors are pushing the single currency and the euro drives the downward movement. A block of macroeconomic statistics published this week greatly increased the likelihood of large-scale actions by the ECB to mitigate monetary policy. For example, the ZEW indices of Germany and the eurozone came out not only in the "red zone", but also updated multi-year lows. The German index crashed to -44 points while forecasting a decline to -27 points. The pan-European indicator showed similar dynamics, dropping to -43 points while forecasting a decline to -21 points. The indicator has fallen to its lowest levels since 2010, reflecting the pessimism of the European business environment.

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Following the ZEW indices, the German economic growth indicator for the second quarter of this year was published. For the first time since the third quarter of 2018, German GDP fell into the negative region (-0.2%). After that, the market started talking about the risks of a technical recession in this country, which is the "locomotive" of the European economy. But it is worth noting here that representatives of the German government reacted quite calmly to this release (possibly because it coincided with the forecast values). Thus, a spokeswoman for the German government said that Berlin does not intend to request additional measures to stimulate the economy, as the country's GDP is predicted to grow in the second half of the year. This rhetoric calmed the markets, especially after the release of data on the growth of European GDP, showing that the indicator came out at the level of forecasts. This conveys a slight slowdown.

Nevertheless, the fact remains that the German economy contracted for the first time in almost 10 years, complementing the negative fundamental picture for the euro. In addition, the growth in the number of employed unexpectedly decreased in the EU countries, according to published data. After a three-quarter growth, the indicator suddenly came out worse than expected (0.2% versus 0.3% on a quarterly basis). The level of industrial production also decreased significantly by -1.6% in monthly terms and -2.6% in annual terms. This is the slowest indicator growth rate since December last year.

Today, many trading floors in Europe will be closed as the Catholic world celebrates the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary. The European session is absolutely empty in the context of macroeconomic releases, hence, Italy will be the #1 topic for the traders of the pair. Let me remind you that the other day the Italian Senate did not support the proposal of the League, headed by Matteo Salvini, to vote on the issue of no confidence in the government. The largest political forces of the country opposed the initiative (except for the League, of course) but this does not mean that the political crisis is resolved. on the contrary, the situation has become even more complicated. Indeed, the de facto parliament in Italy is now lacking the ruling majority and in fact, the country's legislative body is blocked. This was due to disagreements between the League and the 5 Star Movement, the former coalition partners. The last straw in the conflict was the vote on the multi-billion dollar high-speed rail project between Italian Turin and French Lyon. This project was lobbied and supported by members of the League, while the 5 Stars voted against it in parliament. However, this issue only exacerbated the problem, while there were disagreements between political forces in other areas, particularly on the issue of decentralization and review of the minimum wage.

After the Senate vote, the situation came to a standstill. Against the backdrop of the absence of a coalition, the parliament did not allow the issue of a vote of no confidence in the government to be put to the vote. Now, a lot depends on the position of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who is due to speak on deputies at the Senate's residence on August 20. It is worth noting that if Salvini will be able to achieve re-elections, then most likely he will become the prime minister. According to recent polls, Liga can get about 35% in the elections. This fact may aggravate relations between Rome and Brussels, given Matteo's criticism of the central organs of the European Union.

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Thus, the fundamental background for the euro remains negative. If the dollar positions strengthen in the near future, then the EUR/USD pair may test the 1.1100 mark. However, it is unlikely that the bears will gain a foothold in the area of the 10th figure, which requires more weighty arguments and a large-scale strengthening of the American currency.

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EUR/USD approaching long term pullback support

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EURUSD is approaching our first support at 1.11105, also pullback support where we might be seeing a bounce above this level.

Entry: 1.11105

Why it's good : 1.11105 also corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level where price normally reverses. Also, stochastics here is reacting above 2.70% support where price reversed in the past

Stop Loss : 1.10715

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NZD/USD approaching resistance, potential reversal

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Price approaching its resistance where a reversal could occur.

Entry: 0.6516

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance

Take Profit : 0.6397

Why it's good: Horizontal swing low support

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Forecast for USD / JPY pair on August 15, 2019

USD / JPY pair

After the strong growth of the dollar on Tuesday, the pair yesterday rolled back a little to support the upward line of the price channel on the daily chart. The level of 106.46 regains the key role, which means the mandatory fixing of the price above it, only if the market wants to grow further. The targets are above 107.40 (the MACD line on the daily chart) and 108.53 (the line of the red falling price channel). After fixing the price under yesterday's low, the price will return to the price channel line to the area of 104.95, which will lead to fixing under the green line of the price channel. The Marlin Oscillator is growing but it is not informative in the current situation.

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On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the line of balance (red indicator), which indicates the retention of market interest in growth. Exit above the blue line of MACD, to which there are only a few points, will significantly facilitate the price increase to 106.46. The Marlin Oscillator is being kept in the growth zone. In this situation, its readings are correct. We are waiting for fixing of the price above the next key level, which is our main scenario.

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USD/JPY bouncing up intermediate support, further bounce!

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USDJPY is bouncing up intermediate support at 105.73, further rally could occur!

Entry :105.73

Why it's good : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance

Take Profit : 106.71

Why it's good : Horizontal swing high resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension

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Forecast for EUR/USD on August 15, 2019

EUR/USD

Yesterday, the main topic of discussion in business media was the inversion of the yield on US bonds - the yield on 10-year securities fell below the yield on 2-year bonds: 1.593% and 1.585%, respectively. Traditionally, such an inversion is considered a sign of a recession, but we doubt this interpretation precisely in the current conditions, since the United States places large amounts of debt after the recent lifting of the limit on its limit, which caused a surge in activity in the long-term securities sector. At the same time, investors are laying down the rate cut in the medium and long term. However, now you can talk about the crisis for any reason - the world economy continues to fall, a number of countries, even Great Britain, are close to a recession. Eurozone Industrial Production Report for June showed a fall of -1.6% against the forecast of -1.4%. The euro fell 30 points.

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On the daily chart, the price went below the Fibonacci level of 110.0%, now the target opens at the level of 123.6% at the price of 1.1074. The Marlin oscillator is in the decreasing trend zone.

The price has consolidated below the balance and MACD indicator lines on the four-hour chart. The Marlin oscillator is also developing in the negative trend zone. We are waiting for the price of 1.1074.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on August 15, 2019

GBP/USD

The pound did not begin to work out the technical convergence prevailing on the daily chart, but the probability of further growth, although it has decreased over the past day, remains, the target is 1.2154. Our main scenario is consolidating the price in the range of 1.1986-1.2032, formed by the Fibonacci levels of 271.0% and 261.8%, before further pulling down the pound to 1.1763 - to the reaction level of 314.0%.

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Today, retail sales are expected to decrease by 0.3% for July. Retail sales data are also coming out in the US, but the forecast for them suggests a 0.3% increase. US industrial production is expected to grow by 0.1% in July. Tomorrow, new home mortgages in the US are projected to grow from 1.25 million yoy to 1.26 million yoy.

Perhaps the data will help the pound fulfill its main goal.

On the four-hour chart, the price continues to be held by the resistance of the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator is kept in the decline zone.

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Fractal analysis of the main currency pairs on August 15

Forecast for August 15:

Analytical review of currency pairs in scale H1:

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For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1228, 1.1191, 1.1170, 1.1154, 1.1124, 1.1093, 1.1056 and 1.1030. Here, the price forms the potential for the downward movement of August 13. The continuation of the development of the downward structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.1124. In this case, the target is 1.1093. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.1090 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement to the level of 1.1056. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1030. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.1154 - 1.1170. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.1190. This level is a key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of an upward structure. Here, the potential target is 1.1228.

The main trend is the formation of the downward potential of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1154 Take profit: 1.1170

Buy 1.1172 Take profit: 1.1190

Sell: 1.1122 Take profit: 1.1095

Sell: 1.1091 Take profit: 1.1058

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For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2142, 1.2099, 1.2069, 1.2014, 1.1952, 1.1908 and 1.1850. Here, we follow the downward cycle of July 31. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2014. In this case, the target is 1.1952. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 1.1952 - 1.1908. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.1850. Upon reaching this level, we expect a pullback to the top.

Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 1.2069 - 1.2099. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a long correction. Here, the target is 1.2142. This level is a key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of July 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2069 Take profit: 1.2097

Buy: 1.2100 Take profit: 1.2140

Sell: 1.2012 Take profit: 1.1954

Sell: 1.1950 Take profit: 1.1910

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For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9854, 0.9816, 0.9797, 0.9768, 0.9706, 0.9682, 0.9641, 0.9604 and 0.9536. Here, we follow the medium-term downward structure from August 1. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone and forms the potential for the top from August 13. The continuation of movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range of 0.9706 - 0.9682. In this case, the target is 0.9641. Short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation are in the range of 0.9641 - 0.9604. The breakdown of the level of 0.9604 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the potential target is 0.9536.

Departure for correction is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9768. Here, the first goal is 0.9797. Short-term upward movement is possibly in the range of 0.9797 - 0.9816. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the upward cycle. Here, the target is 0.9854.

The main trend is the descending structure of August 1, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy : 0.9768 Take profit: 0.9797

Buy : 0.9818 Take profit: 0.9852

Sell: 0.9680 Take profit: 0.9641

Sell: 0.9638 Take profit: 0.9605

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For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.62, 108.14, 107.45, 106.91, 106.35, 105.94, 105.64 and 105.01. Here, the price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of August 12, which requires the breakdown of the level of 105.64. In this case, the first potential target is 105.01. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 106.91. In this case, the target is 107.45. Consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 107.45 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 108.14. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 108.62. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

The main trend: the formation of potential for the top of August 12, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 106.91 Take profit: 107.43

Buy : 107.47 Take profit: 108.14

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 105.62 Take profit: 105.04

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For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3445, 1.3422, 1.3385, 1.3361, 1.3329, 1.3288, 1.3265, 1.3240 and 1.3194. Here, we are following the development of the local ascendant structure of August 9. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3330. In this case, the target is 1.3361. Consolidation is in the range of 1.3361 - 1.3385. The breakdown of the level of 1.3385 will allow us to count on movement towards a potential target - 1.3422. Upon reaching this level, we expect consolidation in the range of 1.3422 - 1.3444, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

A short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 1.3288 - 1.3265. The breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3240. This level is a key support for the top.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of August 9.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3360

Buy : 1.3387 Take profit: 1.3422

Sell: 1.3288 Take profit: 1.3266

Sell: 1.3264 Take profit: 1.3240

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For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.6967, 0.6922, 0.6902, 0.6869, 0.6843, 0.6803, 0.6762, 0.6733 and 0.6675. Here, we follow the development of the ascending structure of August 7. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.6803. In this case, the first target is 0.6843. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 0.6843 - 0.6869. The breakdown of the level of 0.6870 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.6902. Consolidation is in the range of 0.6902 - 0.6922. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.6967. Upon reaching which, we expect a pullback to the bottom.

We expect a consolidated movement in the range of 0.6762 - 0.6733. The breakdown of the level of 0.6733 will lead to the development of a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.6675.

The main trend is the ascending structure of August 7, the correction stage.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.6805 Take profit: 0.6840

Buy: 0.6844 Take profit: 0.6867

Sell : Take profit :

Sell: 0.6730 Take profit: 0.6680

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For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 119.40, 118.65, 118.22, 117.58, 117.16 and 116.54. Here, the price has canceled the formation of the ascending structure and at the moment, we are following the development of the local potential for the bottom of August 13. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 117.58 - 117.16. A breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect movement to a potential target - 116.54. Consolidation is near this level.

Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 118.22 - 118.65. The breakdown of the last value will have the formation of an ascending structure for the top. Here, the first goal is 119.40.

The main trend is the formation of a local descending structure of August 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 118.22 Take profit: 118.62

Buy: 118.70 Take profit: 119.40

Sell: 117.56 Take profit: 117.18

Sell: 117.14 Take profit: 116.55

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For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 131.23, 130.57, 129.66, 127.94, 127.33, 126.48 and 125.57. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the development of the upward cycle of August 12. At the moment, the price is close to the cancellation of this structure. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 129.00 - 129.66. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 130.57. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 131.23. Upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a pullback to the bottom.

Short-term downward movement is possibly in the range of 127.94 - 127.33. The breakdown of the latter value will favor the development of a downward structure. Here, the first goal is 126.48. As for the potential value, we consider the level of 125.57.

The main trend is building potential for the top of August 12th.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 129.00 Take profit: 129.64

Buy: 129.67 Take profit: 130.55

Sell: 127.30 Take profit: 126.50

Sell: 126.44 Take profit: 125.60

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from August 15, 2019 APLs &

Let's see what the movement of the trading instruments EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY , which have a specific gravity in calculating the dollar index #USDX 83.1%, will start from August 15, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

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US dollar index

The development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of 1/2 Median Line channel (98.00 - 97.65 - 97.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from August 15, 2019. We look at the animated chart for the details of the movement inside this channel.

A combined breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 97.30) and ISL38.2 Minuette (support level of 97.21) will determine the development of the movement of the dollar index in the equilibrium zone (97.21 - 96.75 - 96.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

In the event of a breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 98.00), the Minuette operational scle pitchfork will make the development of the upward movement #USDX to the SSL start line (98.15) of the Minuette operational scale fork and the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel boundaries (98.25 - 98.45 - 98.70).

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

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Euro vs US dollar

The development of the single European currency EUR / USD from August 15, 2019 will also be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1150 - 1.1185 - 1.1225) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The details of the movement inside the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel are shown in the animated graphics.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 1.1225) will determine the development of the movement of the single European currency to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1235 - 1.1295 - 1.1350) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The breakdown of the support level of 1.1140 (the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel) will direct the development of the EUR / USD movement to the goals - 1/2 Median Line Minuette (1.1125) - the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (1.1095) - the equilibrium zone (1.1090 - 1.1060 - 1.1027) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

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Great Britain pound vs US dollar

The development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement from August 15, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel boundaries (1.2050 - 1.2070 - 1.2090) of the Minuette operational scale fork. We look at the animated chart for movement options within the specified channel.

In case of breakdown of the resistance level of 1.2090, the development of Her Majesty's Currency movement will continue to the equilibrium zone (1.2125 - 1.2150 - 1.2180) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect, after the breakdown of ISL61.8 Minuette (1.2180), to reach the local maximum 1.1221.

In the case of a combined breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 1.2050) and the initial SSL line (1.2040) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the downward movement of GBP / USD can be continued to the targets - minimum 1.2016 - LTL Minuette control line (1.1985) - control line LTL Minuette (1.1950).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen on the animated chart.

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US dollar vs Japanese yen

Further development of the USD / JPY currency movement of the "country of the rising sun" from August 15, 2019 will depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (106.80 - 106.25 - 105.76) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The movement inside the equilibrium zone is marked on the animation chart.

The breakdown of the support level of 105.79 at the lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will make it relevant to continue the development of the downward movement of USD / JPY to the targets - the final Schiff Line Minuette (105.20) - minimum 105.06 - the control line LTL (104.75) of the Minuette operational scale fork - end line FSL Minuette (103.95).

In case of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 106.80) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the USD / JPY movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (106.65 - 107.20 - 107.70) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

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The review is made without taking into account the news background. The opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Washington and Beijing loosened the nuts. A thin world or calm before a storm?

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The unexpected decision of the US administration to delay the introduction of 10% tariffs on a number of goods imported into the United States from China revived the markets. Investors began to buy cheaper assets.

Why did the White House retreat? Maybe the United States really wants to make concessions, or did they just see that Beijing was not afraid of their tariffs? It is enough to recall how China devalued the yuan quite simply in order to smooth out the negative effect of the duties introduced by the US.

It is noteworthy that today the People's Bank of China raised the yuan to the dollar for the first time in two weeks - up to 7.0312. Previously, the regulator continuously depreciated the national currency, as a result of which it updated lows since the spring of 2008.

Judging by the comments of Donald Trump, the US president's decision to postpone the introduction of new Chinese tariffs for a number of positions until December 15 is not a sign of progress in the Washington-Beijing trade negotiations, but rather a result of pressure from US companies.

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"We are doing this taking into account the upcoming Christmas holidays so that some of the duties do not hit consumers in the United States," he said.

Thus, the head of the White House for the first time admitted that tariffs could harm the US economy.

Goldman Sachs believes that Washington's departure from its original plan to levy duties on all Chinese exports to the United States is a reaction to the fall of US stock indices.

According to Moody's, the recent events should not be seen as a de-escalation of the conflict between the United States and China: this is just a temporary delay.

"D. Trump is afraid to look weak and unable to achieve the goal. In addition, he fears that his chosen strategy of a trade war with China will be ineffective both in the eyes of his own voters and China itself," reports the Chinese publication Global Times.

"The US is making concessions as soon as negotiations between the two countries are on the verge of a complete break. Washington's latest softening said it recognizes that pressure tactics on Beijing aren't working," said Bai Ming, an analyst at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

However, regardless of the White House's motives, the latest news from the trade front caused a stormy positive reaction from the markets, allowing US indices to win back the decline of the beginning of the week, and the greenback appreciably strengthened against major currencies, especially against the yen. The USD/JPY pair has broken the 106 mark.

Data that was published yesterday also provided some support for the US currency, since the release showed the best (since 2006) two-month increase in core inflation in the United States. In July, the indicator increased by 0.3% in monthly terms and by 2.2% in annual terms. The fact that inflation accelerates after a sluggish start reduces the risks of aggressive easing of the monetary reserve monetary policy. The chances of a September cut in the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at once fell from 25% to less than 10%. The Fed leadership is becoming less likely to further lower interest rates.

Today, the yen against the dollar has returned to growth amid continued geopolitical risks.

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Despite recent U.S. moves, markets are not waiting for a quick resolution to Washington and Beijing trade disputes, which put pressure on the entire global economy.

Analysts also note the presence of geopolitical tensions in different regions of the world, which supports the demand for the yen.

"Recent news provides more opportunities to strengthen the dollar and weaken the yen, but this does not mean that trade differences are resolved. In addition, there are many geopolitical risks, such as the situation in Hong Kong, the upcoming Brexit and the situation around Iran. Therefore, I do not expect significant demand for risky assets," said Tohru Sasaki, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

It is assumed that if China feels D. Trump's weakness and begins to dictate its conditions, then we will again see the corresponding market reaction, the opposite of the one observed yesterday.

As for the main currency pair, it still remains within the wide lateral range.

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The gloomy results of recent studies of business sentiment in Germany today have been confirmed by actual economic indicators. According to Destatis, German GDP declined 0.1% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

According to analysts, two negative quarterly indicators in a row will indicate a technical recession in the country, which is the locomotive of the entire European economy. However, the eurozone as a whole remains in relative safety: its GDP continued to grow in the second quarter, although only by 0.2% in quarterly terms.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. August 14th. Results of the day. Former Finance Minister Philip Hammond joins opponents of

4-hour timeframe

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Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 70p - 88p - 126p - 92p - 56p.

Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 86p (90p).

Over the past few days, we have repeatedly drawn the attention of traders to the fact that there are very few supporters of the hard Brexit in the UK. There are enough supporters of Brexit, but only few of hard Brexit. Simple numbers speak of this. If 52% voted for leaving the EU in a referendum in 2016, it is logical to assume that not all of them support Brexit without agreement. Accordingly, they agree to a "divorce" with the EU without a "deal" much less than 50%. Moreover, opponents of the hard Brexit are almost all the ministers of the former Cabinet before the arrival of Boris Johnson. Someone who opposes is the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, who has repeatedly warned that such a scenario of withdrawal from the jurisdiction of Brussels could be disastrous for Great Britain's economy. Also, if you look a little into the future, then not only economic problems await the UK, but also the possible losses of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Now ex-Minister of Finance Philip Hammond spoke about this issue. He said that leaving without an agreement is not what the citizens of Great Britain voted for in 2016. "Most citizens want to maintain their current standard of living and avoid losing jobs, and the lack of a deal now looks like a betrayal of the 2016 referendum," said Hammond. In addition, a report on inflation was published in the UK today, according to which the indicator accelerated to 2.1% in July instead of the forecast 1.9%. Good news, but not for the UK, in which inflation is now accelerating due to the pound's fall. If there had been no rapid depreciation of the British currency, then inflation would have been at the average European level, about 1.0% - 1.3%.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair corrected once again to the Kijun-sen line and also went into the side channel. Thus, short positions that are aiming for 1.1986 remain relevant, and the bearish mood remains below the critical line. Pound sterling purchases are risky anyway.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com