Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 16, 2015

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Overview:

  • Due tDue to the previous events, theUSD/CAD pair has still set between the levels of 1.2826 and 1.2950, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals inside this area. Also, it should be noted that the market showed the signs of instability. The trend was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Therefore, it is necessary to wait until the sideways channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show signs of a bullish trend because the support has already set at the level of 1.2830. In other words, buy deals are recommended above the level of 1.2830 with the first target at 1.2975 to test the monthly pivot point. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement towards 1.3000 and further to the level of 1.3025 in the long term to form a new double top. The level of 1.3025 will act as strong resistance in coming days. However, the pair can turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.2903 for a correction.

Observations:

  • Please check out the market volatility before investing, because the sight price may have already been reached and scenarios might have become invalidated.
  • The key level is at 1.2946 (the double top).
  • History will probably repeat itself at this level again.
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EUR/NZD analysis for July 16, 2015

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Overview:

Recently, EUR/NZD is moving upwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1.6807 in a volume above the average. In the daily time frame, we can observe an upward bar in a volume below the average and there is also an inside-bar formation with a high at the price of 16677 (currently on the test) and a low (support) at the price of 1.6340. Watch for a potential breakout of inside-bar support or resistance. Also, we got strong rejection from our demand trendline (support) around the price of 1.6390. The short-term trend is neutral, but the mid-term trend is still bullish. I am still waiting for larger liquidity and stronger price action to confirm further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points :

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6650

R2: 1.6725

R3: 1.6840

Support levels:

S1: 1.6425

S2: 1.6355

S3: 1.6240

Trading recommendations: Buying EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky, since we have a fake breakout in the background.

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Gold analysis for July 16, 2015

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Overview:

Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,142.53. According to the daily time frame, we can observe weak bearish bar in a volume below the average. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe a weak price action and lower volatility on the market. Selling still looks risky at this stage because of support at $1,142.00 and $1,141.00. Our strong diagonal (support) trendline got broken but with very weak volume and price action. So, be careful about a fake breakout.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1,158.00

R2: 1,165.00

R3: 1,176.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,136.00

S2: 1,129.00

S3: 1,118.00

Trading recommendations: Weak downward movement is on the market. Be careful when selling gold around the price of $1,140.00.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 16, 2015

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Overview:

When bulls pushed the price further above 79.6% Fibonacci level, the market looked quite overbought. That is why, the price failed to hold above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in a formation of a Triple-top pattern.

Successive lower highs were reached within the depicted consolidation zone enhancing the bearish side of the market.

Daily fixation below 1.2300 opened a way towards the levels of 1.2000 and 1.1940 (the depicted weekly uptrend) for the USD/CAD pair.

Bullish support was found around these levels. Successive higher bottoms were established. Bullish pressure was applied against resistance levels of 1.2450 and 1.2500 (previous tops).

On the other hand, the previous weekly candlestick came quite bullish when the pair needed frank weekly closure below 1.2300. This reflected a lack of bearish momentum.

That is why, an extensive bullish movement is being expressed on the chart. A frank bullish breakout has been executed above the price zone of 1.2770-1.2800.

The long-term bullish projection target would be located at the price level of 1.3080 if enough bullish support keeps defending the recently established support zone (1.2750-1.2800).

Conservative traders can wait for a bullish pullback towards 1.2800 or probably lower, for a valid BUY entry with a low risk/reward ratio (breakout level = recent support).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for July 16, 2015

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Evident bullish recovery emerged from the area around 1.4550 where a significant bullish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed.

Shortly after, persistence above the levels of 1.5000-1.5080 exposed the weekly key zone of 1.5500-1.5550 where significant bearish pressure was previously applied on February 22.

Last month, the market was pushed above this weekly key zone around 1.5550 in an attempt to reach the area around 1.5900 (100% Fibonacci Expansion), which provided evident supply for the GBP/USD pair.

As anticipated, a bearish pullback was executed towards the level of 1.5550. Temporary bearish breakdown below 1.5500 took place last week.

However, the resulting previous weekly candlestick indicates bullish rejection besides lack of strong bearish momentum below 1.5500.

Another weekly candlestick closure above 1.5500 hinders further bearish decline and enhances the bullish side of the market. It allows a quick bullish pullback towards 1.5750 to occur shortly after.

On the other hand, the nearest weekly demand level around 1.5200 becomes exposed only if GBP/USD bears manage to achieve a weekly candle closure below the price level of 1.5500.

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After a bearish breakout of the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel (roughly around 1.5500-1.5550), the market failed to gather enough bearish momentum towards the intraday demand level of 1.5100.

Significant bullish pressure was observed around 1.5200. Hence, a bullish swing was established towards 1.5780 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.5880 (FE 100%).

Previously, the price zone of 1.5800-1.5880 acted as a significant supply zone for the GBP/USD pair. It offered a valid sell entry last week. All T/P levels were successfully reached.

On the other hand, the level at 1.5550 (corresponding to 50% Fibonacci level and a previous prominent top) was broken down on Tuesday allowing further bearish decline towards 1.5350 where an ascending bottom was recently established.

This week, quite strong bullish price actions have been expressed. A bullish pullback towards 1.5600 has been taking place. The price level of 1.5550 was breached during yesterday's consolidations.

The level of 1.5770 (61.8% Fibonacci level) is the nearest supply level to meet the pair. A counter-trend intraday SELL entry can be offered around there.

On the other hand, intraday bullish demand should be applied around the level of 1.5550 if bearish pullback occurs soon enough.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 16, 2015

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The market was pushed lower after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously hit back in July 2012 and June 2010.

The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 850 pips since the beginning of 2015. Moreover, EUR/USD bears have already pushed the price slightly below the monthly demand level at 1.0550 (established on January 1997).

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (May and June) reflect recent bearish rejection being expressed around 1.1450.

In the long term, a bearish breakout of the monthly demand level at 1.0550 should be expected as the long-term projection target is still located at 0.9450.

However, a bullish corrective movement towards 1.1500 may be executed only if May's monthly high of 1.1465 gets breached (considered a very low probability currently).

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After such a long bearish rally (which started around the levels of 1.1300), bullish rejection took place at 1.0570 (monthly demand level).

Multiple ascending bottoms were established around the levels of 1.0470, 1.0550, and 1.0850. These levels corresponded to the daily uptrend depicted on the chart.

Further bullish pressure was observed until bearish rejection was applied around 1.1400 (long-term double-top reversal pattern).

A daily closure below the level of 1.1150 brought the EUR/USD pair towards 1.1000 again where the uptrend comes to meet the EUR/USD pair (significant demand level depicted on the chart).

That is why, the current daily candlesticks should be monitored in order to clarify further direction. Bulls should keep defending their uptrend/demand zone around 1.1000-1.0950.

EUR/USD bulls should keep trading above 1.1000 if further bullish advancement is needed to be achieved. Initial bullish target would be located at 1.1150 and 1.1300 (a prominent supply level to be watched).

On the other hand, please note that a single bearish closure below 1.0950 hinders the ongoing bullish scenario enabling a quick bearish decline towards 1.0850 and 1.0700 (projection target for the reversal pattern).

This can offer a valid SELL entry upon closure below 1.0950 (uptrend line and demand level depicted on the chart).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 16, 2015

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Overview:

  • The EUR/USD pair is still heading towargs the area between the levels 1.0977 and 1.0796. Subsequently, it should be noted that the daily pivot point will set at the level of 1.0900. Right now, the pair is trading around the level of 1.09000. Moreover, the daily pivot point has already formed a psychological level in this area. Therefore, sell at the levels of 1.0977 (the weekly resistance one) and 1.0900 with the first target at 1.0835. Later, the pair will call for an uptrend in order to continue its bearish movement towards 1.0796 to form a new double top in the H1 chart even in spite of the fact that the stop loss should be placed at the level of 1.0977.
  • However, if the trend fails to close below the level of 1.0900, it will be a good sign to buy at this level in the short term with a target at 1.0952, then it is going to continue towards 1.0966 (the level of 1.0966 is representing the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels).
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Daily analysis of major pairs for July 16, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair has continued to go south reluctantly. Since the beginning of the week, the market has gone down by up to 180 pips. The support line at 1.0950 has already been tested and it could be breached to the downside. The support line is stubborn: it was tested a few weeks ago, but the price could not stay below it. Therefore, a breach of the support line would mean a good accomplishment for the bears (unless the EUR gains enormous stamina). In addition, some fundamental figures are expected today and they could have impact on USD pairs.

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USD/CHF: It is normal that this pair is going upwards as EUR/USD is going downwards. The duo must go opposite each other in most cases, and as a result, USD/CHF has succeeded in going above the support level at 0.9500. The major obstacle to overcome next is the resistance level at 0.9550.

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GBP/USD: This is a bullish market, with a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart. The 14-period RSI is above the level of 50. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, while the price is above them. This shows that the price could continue going upwards, though there is a form of opposition at the distribution territory at 1.5650. With more buying pressure, that distribution territory could be breached to the upside.

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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has gone up by at least 150 pips this week. Since the bullish signal was formed, the price has gone above the demand levels at 123.00 and 123.50. The next target is the supply levels at 124.00 and 124.50. These supply levels must be reached, otherwise the price could experience a bearish correction.

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EUR/JPY: This cross continues to trend sideways, but a breakout is imminent. Will it go upward or downwards? In the meantime, it would be great to stay away from the cross until a clear directional bias is confirmed.

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Forecast of USD/CAD for July 16, 2015

The Bank of Canada announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The CPI inflation rate has remained around 1 per cent in recent months, reflecting declining year-over-year prices for gasoline and other consumer energy products. Core inflation is expected to remain around 2 per cent throughout the projection period as the upward pressures from exchange rate pass-through largely offset downward pressures from excess supply.

According to Fed William, strengthening US economy signals that the Fed may raise it interest rates in 2015. The possibility that the US inflation rate rises to 2% by the end of 2016 is 50%. Compared to the last week, the situation in Greece is "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

Today, traders eye US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing. The Federal chairwoman Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee.

Technical view: The pair managed to breach the previous resistance of 1.2835, hit a new high of 1.2958. The parallel resistance is seen at 1.2983 and 1.3063. In all time frames, the pair remains in the bullish territory, but oscillators indicating highly overbought levels with negative mild divergences.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.2945, 1.2960, and 1.2985. The upside journey is limited from here. It is likely to extend towards 1.2980, 1.3020, and 1.3050 in the extreme case . Use every rise to sell and hold for the next couple of days. Intraday support is found at 1.2900 and 1.2800.

Trade: Sell below 1.2900

Buying above 1.2960 contains risk.

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Global macro overview for July 16, 2015

Global macro overview for 16/07/2015:

The overnight news for the New Zealand dollar hadn't been good at all as the NZD/USD pair fell to the lowest level in six years after the data release. The consumer price index in New Zealand came out weaker than expected 0.5% q/q (0.3% y/y) at 0.4% q/q (0.3% y/y). However, data were better than the last quarter number of -0.3%q/q (0.1% y/y) mainly due to higher petrol prices, which rose 8.8% in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, it did not stop NZD from falling and now the NZD/USD pair is approaching the important support level at 61%Fibo of the latest range at the level of 0.6400.

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USDX technical analysis for July 16, 2015

The US Dollar Index bounced as expected from short-term support yesterday and hit a new short-term higher high confirming the bullish trend. The bullish scenario is gaining more points as the price is heading towards higher highs and the weekly chart is approaching important weekly resistance at 98. Bulls should be very cautious.

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Support is found at 97-97.20. and then at 96.50 by the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance is at 98. The trend is bullish and as long as the price is above 96, the bullish scenario will be my preferred one.

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Blue line - medium-term trend line resistance

The medium-term trend line resistance is broken and the weekly candle is making a higher high than the previous one. This is a bullish sign for what we should expect over the coming weeks. The weekly chart is clearly above the kijun- and tenkan-sen indicators confirming bullish trend. New highs above 100 should be expected if this trend continues.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 16, 2015

The yellow metal extended losses for the third consecutive day as well managed to hold the parallel support.

The metal lost momentum again. The focus has turned to the Fed rate hike.

According to Fed William, strengthening US economy signals that the Fed may raise it interest rates in 2015. The possibility that the US inflation rate rises to 2% by the end of 2016 is 50%. Compared to the last week, the situation in Greece is "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

Barclays says if gold prices fsll below $ 1,100.00, the gold production will be vulnerable.

The metal has been moving towards lower tops and lower bottoms for a while, consolidating on the lower end of the large bearish head & shoulder pattern. In all time frames, the precious metal lost all moving averages. On the higher side, $1,165.00 and $1,175.00 act as strong resistance levels to watch. A daily close above $1,175.00 is likely to lighten bullish views. The parallel support is found at $1,142.50.

A daily close below $1,148.00 open gates to re-test previous lows of $1,142.50, $1,139.00, and $1,135.00 initially and extend further later.

At today's Asian session, the metal was trading at $1,148.00 compared to Tuesday's closing price of $1,149.00. Intraday support is found at $1,146.90, $1,142.50, and $1,139.00. Resistance is seen at $1,157.00, $1,160.00, and $1,164.500. The selling accelerates below $1,146.00 towards $1,144.00 and $1,142.00 and at least $1,139.00. A daily close below $1,139.00 will open gates towards $1,129.00 and $1,122.00

The metal has been consolidating in a tight range, we want to see a clear picture either close below $1,148.00 or above $1,175.00.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for July 16, 2015

Weak UK data dragged the price below 20Dsma. However, it managed to close with mild gains.

There were 1.85 million unemployed people. This was 15,000 more than for 3 months to February 2015. That is the first quarterly increase since January to March 2013. The proportion of economically active population who were unemployed (the unemployment rate) was 5.6% compared to the readings for the 3-month period to February 2015, but lower than a year earlier (6.5%).

S&P lowered its outlook for the British GDP growth rate to 2.6 % (previously expected growth of 2.8%), but improved the eurozone GDP forecast.

Today, traders eye US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing index. The Federal chairwoman Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee.

Technical view: The cable gave a breakout from the bullish broadening wedge and closed above that. Momentum is back to the cableon the back of Greece's optimism. The trend favors buying on dips with sl 1.5450. The 50Dsma is found at 1.5555 and 100Dems is found at 1.5440. The 50Wsma is seen at 1.5600.

We are optimistic in our long-term forecast.

Intraday support is found at 1.5620 and 1.5600 50Wsma. Resistance is seen at 1.5650 and 1.5675. For today's session, fresh buying is available above 1.5650 towards 1.5675, 1.5700, and 1.5735 during a day, in the extreme case we can see 1.5790. Before moving up further, we expect the cable to re-test support levels of 1.5540 and 1.5500.

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Gold technical analysis for July 16, 2015

Gold price hit another lower low yesterday breaking the short-term triangle pattern and support at $1,150. The price moved as low as $1,143. This is an important support area. It is difficult to break such a long-term support. A breakout will open the way to a push towards $1,000.

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Blue lines - trend lines

The downward sloping trendline provides resistance since $1,205. The rice remains below the Ichimoku cloud confirming that the trend is bearish. The upward sloping trendline is the lower boundary of the triangle that was broken yesterday and provided us with a new lower low.

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Blue line- long-term trend line support

The weekly chart is breaking below the long-term trendline support. This is a bearish sign. The red ichimoku indicator tenkan-sen is now with a negative slope. If this week's candle ends lower, this bearish sign will be confirmed. More downside is expected for gold, but bears should also be very cautious and lower their protective stops.

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Global macro overview for July 16, 2015

Global macro overview for 16/07/2015:

The ECB will announce its latest monetary policy decision today. The market does not expect any rate cuts, but the ECB might surprise the market just like BoC did yesterday and cut its rate to the levels never seen in the history of EU. Nevertheless, the markets might focus more on the press conference of ECB president Mario Draghi, because of a possible increase by ECB the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to the Greek banks. Please notice that Greece had made the first step to secure its third €86 billion bailout programme as the Greek parliament had approved the deal with creditors.

Moreover, some other important data will be released together with the rate cut decision and the schedule looks as follows ( all times GMT):

09:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index Jun 0.2% y/y 0.2% y/y

09:00 Eurozone Consumer Price Index Core Jun 0.8% y/y 0.8% y/y

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision Jul 0.05% 0.05%

11:45 Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate Jul -0.20% -0.20%

11:45 Eurozone Marginal Lending Facility Jul 0.30% 0.30%

12:30 Eurozone ECB Press Conference

EUR/USD reaction for any unexpected rate cut will be sharp sell-off towards the levels of 1.0811 or even 1.0659.

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 16, 2015

The pair fell at yesterday's session after the written testimony of Janet Yellen. She expressed an optimistic outlook for the US economy and hopes for another interest rate hike.

According to Fed William, strengthening US economy signals that the Fed may raise it interest rates in 2015. The possibility that the US inflation rate rises to 2% by the end of 2016 is 50%. Compared to the last week, the situation in Greece is "a little less worrying."

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says "Fed rate hike will make more money into the bond market, rather than less. The Fed is expected to begin normalizing interest rate path".

S&P's view on the eurozone: The eurozone GDP growth rate forecast for 2015 was revised up to 1.6% (from 1.5%). For 2016, the growth rate forecast was raised to 1.9% (from 1.7%).

Today, traders eye the outcome of the Eurogroup's meeting and decision on the interest rate. We expect the ECB to maintain its rate unchanged. Besides, US unemployment claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing index are due. The Fed chairwoman Yellen testifies before Senate Banking Committee.

Technical view: In the daily chart, the pair lost all the moving averages. After 7 days of consolidation at 100Dsma, it finally closed below that at yesterday's session. The parallel support is found at 1.0916. The 20Wsma is seen at 1.1015. In case pair loses the level of 1.0916 on the down side, 1.0980 and 1.0820 are likely to be reached in a day or two. We still recommend selling on rises with a target at 1.0720 for a while.

The pair has been reaching lower highs and lower lows in the four-hour chart. Today, we expect the pair to hit 1.0880 and 1.0860. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0975, 1.1000, and 1.1030. Support is found at 1.0916, 1.0890, and 1.0850.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 16, 2015

General overview for 16/07/2015 08:45 CET

A corrective cycle in wave a green has topped the level of 137.78 and now the wave b green cycle is in progress. The upward cycle in wave c green is still missing, but as long as the golden trendline is not violated, the market might deteriorate even lower before a bounce/reversal to the upside will happen. The key level is the intraday support at 135.06. If it gets broken, the first support will be seen at 134.54.

Support/Resistance:

133.26 - Swing Low

134.54 - WS1

135.06 - Intraday Support

135.92 - Weekly Pivot

136.41 - Intraday Resistance

Trading recommendations:

As the daily volatility is now limited, daytraders still should consider opening sell orders for intraday scalp only if the level of 135.06 is clearly violated (hourly candle close below this level), with SL just above the level of 135.10 and TP at the level of 134.54.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for July 16, 2015

General overview for 16/07/2015 08:30 CET

As anticipated yesterday, another impulsive wave had developed to complete the upside cycle. Both counts indicate the possibility of a larger corrective cycle now as all five waves are being almost completed. The intraday traders should pay attention to the level of 1.2886 because any breakout lower will lead to immediate support test at the level of 1.2803.

Support/Resistance:

1.2957 - Local High

1.2897 - WR2

1.2886 - Intraday Support

1.2803 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should close the buy orders remained from yesterday and wait for the corrective cycle to complete.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 16, 2015

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Technical summary:

We have seen a nice rally to a new high, just as we expected. We continue to look for even more upside towards 1.6915 and even higher to 1.7050. That said we have to be aware that a five wave rally now can be counted from a low of 1.3880 . So, there is a mounting possibility of a larger correction.

In the short term, we are calling for support near 1.9590, which will ideally protect the downside for the next rally higher to 1.6915. Even if support at 1.9590 gets broken, the back-up support is found just below at 1.9557, which then should be able to do its job and protect the downside. Only an unexpected breakout below 1.6494 will the uptrend development in question.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6588 and will move our stop higher to 1.6485 and will place take profit at 1.6900. This is not the time to become overly bullish as a five wave rally already can be counted.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 16 - 2015

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Technical summary:

Minor resistance at 136.44 succeeded in protecting the upside for a new low in wave ii at 135.14. This could mean that wave ii will need more time to finish in an ending diagonal, but no matter what the downside potential should be very limited from here.

We are currently aiming for a low near 135.00 in order to make a breakout above 136.44 calling for a new rally towards 137.80 and above towards 141.52 and even 143.05.

Only an unexpected breakout below 133.27 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 134.07 with stop placed at 134.25. If you are not yet long EUR, then buy near 135.00 with the same stop at 134.25.

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Technical analysis of Gold for July 16, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Gold is trading around $1,146.00 at the moment. It remains just shy of earlier swing lows around $1,143.00. Please note that a bullish bounce here could still resume its uptrend but a break below would be extremely bearish opening doors towards $1,030.00/50.00 before the overall uptrend could resume. It is recommended to remain long for now, with risk at $1,143.00. Immediate support is seen at $1,143.00 while resistance is seen at $1,167.00/68.00 respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now with risk at $1,143.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of Silver for July 16, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Silver is trading around the level of $15.05 after hitting lows at $15.00 overnight. Please note that the metal is trading right around its fibonacci 0.618 support around $15.00/20 as depicted here. Furthermore, the metal had taken out resistance at $15.85 earlier, and is expected to move higher towards $16.40/50. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk at $14.30 . Immediate support is seen at $14.50/60 followed by $14.30 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.40 followed by $17.20 and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at $14.30, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for July 16, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair is trading around at the levels of 135.28/30 at the moment, looking for an opportunity to resume its rally towards 139.00 and higher subsequently. Please note that the pair could still retrace lower towards 134.50/60 since fibonacci 0.618 support is falling there. It is hence recommended to remain long for now with risk around 133.00. Immediate support is seen at the level of 135.00 followed by 134.50, 133.00, and lower. Resistance is seen at 139.00, followed by 140.00, 141.00, and higher respectively.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long for now, stop is at 133.00, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for July 16, 2015

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The GBP/CHF pair is trading around 1.4890 at the moment after getting above 1.4900 leves earlier today. The pair still has potential to cross the level of 1.5000 before producing a meaningful pullback. It is recommended to book some profits now and look for intraday dips to enter again. Immediate support is seen at 1.4750 followed by 1.4680, 1.4630, 1.4500 and lower, while resistance is seen at 1.4900 followed by 1.5000 and higher respectively. Please note that if the pair needs to form a double top, the reversal from current levels would be sharp and fast.

Trading recommendations:

Book some profits on long positions, move stop to break levels, a target is open.

Good luck!

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Daily analysis of USDX for July 16, 2015

The daily chart structure remains bullish as the Index is approaching the resistance zone of 97.57, the level which is the key one for the current trend development. If USDX achieves that high, it would be expected to test the resistance level of 98.29. Also, bear in mind that the 200 SMA is still pointing to the upside.

USDXDaily.png

The USDX is currently breaking the resistance (now support) level of 97.21, looking for the next target around 97.53. There, we should expect another breakout after a higher high pattern formation in the H1 chart. in case of success, it could reach the next resistance around the 97.72 level. The MACD is at positive territory.

USDXH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 97.57 / 98.29

Daily chart's support levels: 96.57 / 95.74

H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.53 / 97.72

H1 chart's support levels: 97.21 / 96.86

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the US Dollar Index breaks out with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 97.53, take profit is at 97.72, and stop loss is at 97.34.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 16, 2015

The pair is looking for an opportunity to do a pullback around the resistance level of 1.5640. If that happens, we should expect a fall until the support level of 1.5543, where the 200 SMA is currently located on the daily chart. However, the risk at the upside is still high and GBP/USD could test the level of 1.5755 soon. The MACD indicator is at neutral territory.

GBPUSDDaily.png

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is currently trading higher and forming a bullish pattern above the support level of 1.5639. Also, the pair remains very strong in the current higher swing. That is why we should expect a breakout around 1.5639 soon in order to reach the next resistance at the level of 1.5678 in the short term.

GBPUSDH1.png

Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5640 / 1.5755

Daily chart's support levels: 1.5543 / 1.5450

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5639 / 1.5678

H1 chart's support levels: 1.5596 / 1.5524

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5639, take profit is at 1.5478, and stop loss is at 1.5601.

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for July 15, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias, tracking movements in GBP/USD. Sterling sentiment is boosted after Bank of England Governor Carney said, "The point at which interest rates may begin to rise is moving closer given the performance of the economy." Meanwhile BOE's David Miles said the central bank should begin raising interest rates in the UK soon in order to keep future increases in borrowing costs smooth and steady.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is in bullish mode.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 194 and the second target at 194.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 191.50 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 190.65. The pivot point is at 192.35.

Resistance levels: 194 194.70 195.50

Support levels: 191.50 190.65 190

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 15, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is undermined by the positive US dollar sentiment, divergent monetary policy stances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the US Federal Reserve, and lower dairy prices. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by improved investors' risk appetite.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is turning bearish.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6590. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6540. The pivot point stands at 0.6670. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to mo ve further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.67 and the second target at 0.6745.

Resistance levels: 0.67 0.6745 0.6790

Support levels: 0.6590 0.6540 0.65

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 15, 2015

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment and franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF cross. But USD/CHF losses are tempered by the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention, and the negative Swiss interest rates.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated near overbought levels.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9570 and the second target at 0.96. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9395 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.9365. The pivot point is at 0.9440.

Resistance levels: 0.9570 0.96 0.9650

Support levels: 0.9395 0.9365 0.9315

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 15, 2015

USDJPYM30.png

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower after hitting the eight-day high of 123.72 on Tuesday. USD/JPY is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.60 versus 96.80 early Tuesday) after a surprise 0.3% on-month drop in the US June retail sales (versus forecast +0.2%), the weaker-than-expected US June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism (came in at 94.1 versus forecast 98.4), and an unexpected 0.1% on-month drop in the US June import price index (versus forecast +0.1%). USD/JPY is also weighted by the lower US Treasury yields (10-year slipped 3.2 bps to 2.397% Tuesday) and Japan's exports. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid diminished investor risk aversion (VIX fear gauge eased 3.81% to 13.37; S&P 500 closed up 0.45% at 2,108.95 overnight), demand from the Japanese importers, and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is tilting positive as stochastics is in bullish mode, the MACD is turning bullish, five-day moving average is rising above 15-day moving average.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.35 and the second target at 124.60. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 122.85 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 122.40. The pivot point is at 123.15.

Resistance levels: 124.35 124.60 135

Support levels: 122.85 122.40 122

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