Shares of NVIDIA fell by 13%

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The cost of shares of the largest manufacturer of graphics accelerators and processors of NVIDIA Corporation fell by more than 13% to $ 138 amid lower forecasts for reporting for the fourth quarter of 2018.

The company lowered its quarterly revenue forecast from $ 2.7 billion to $ 2.2 billion due to weaker than analysts predicted, sales of game consoles and data center platforms.

Representatives of Nvidia explained that the forecast was worsened due to the slowing growth of the global economy, especially in China. The annual financial report will be published on February 14th.

On Tuesday, January 29, as of 15:22 London time, the value of shares decreased by 13.82%, to $ 138.01 per security.

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Euro picks up speed due to a fair wind

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The euro boosts attractiveness, taking advantage of the expectations of the Fed's "pigeon" rhetoric, hopes for progress in the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. The comments of Mario Draghi, who convinced the market that the economic affairs in the European block are not as bad as it seems at first glance, came to the court. At least, gloomy prospects do not require additional monetary incentives.

Recall, after the recent meeting of the European Central Bank, the EUR / USD pair has undergone sales. There were rumors about the launch of the LTRO long-term refinancing program, and the phrase "balanced risks" was replaced with "downside risks." If Draghi removes the idea of expanding monetary incentives, and the regulator, having reduced his forecasts, returns to the formulation of "balanced risks," the situation will improve. This is not a significant improvement, but there's no need to panic. Traders can easily switch to other topics, for example, to a slowdown in the US economy and to a pause in the Fed rate hike.

The US government stood idle for 35 days, which will cost the country's economy $ 3 billion in the fourth and $ 8 billion in the first quarter. In addition, Mike Malvani, the White House's chief of staff, said the day before that Donald Trump was ready to again suspend the work of the federal government if Congress leaders could not agree on a budget agreement that includes funding the wall.

US GDP in the first quarter of this year will grow in annual terms by 2.1%, although it could expand by 2.5%. Morgan Stanley cut its forecast from 2.5% to 1.7% in the first quarter and increased from 1.8% to 2.1% in the second.

In order not to worsen the situation and prevent a repetition of the story with the collapse of the stock market, members of the Fed have planned a long pause in the normalization of policies. Here we have in mind not only the federal funds rate but also the balance. Investors are discussing among themselves the fact that the combination of a large-scale issue of debt obligations by the Ministry of Finance and the cessation of reinvestment of Central Bank revenues flushes liquidity from other markets and increases turbulence.

As for tomorrow's meeting of US and PRC officials, then, despite the numerous disagreements of the parties, progress is expected in the negotiations. This was announced by the Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin. According to a senior American representative, the Celestial Empire expressed readiness to significantly increase purchases of agricultural products in the States. At the same time, the Chinese do not want to make major changes in the system of subsidizing state-owned enterprises. Inside the country, there is an opinion that the Celestial should solve non-existent problems.

Be that as it may, the markets are determined to perceive the news from the negotiating table as positive, as long as the parties continue the dialogue. With this development, the euro has every chance to continue the rally. At least, Euro currency is quite able to range in the range of $ 1.146-1.1485.

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Gold vs dollar: the struggle for investors continues

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Last week, for the first time since May 2018, the price of gold overcame the level of $ 1,300 per ounce and is still above this psychological level.

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"The uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the "shutdown" in the US, trade wars are only part of the problems by which the price of gold should have shown much greater growth. However, at first, weak data on the economy of the Middle Kingdom, and then a statement by IMF representatives about the slowdown of the global economy, greatly worried investors, who began to consider the US currency as a defensive asset, as a result of which the demand for it increased markedly," the experts noted.

"Now there is a struggle between gold and greenbacks for investors who want to save their savings, and the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will probably play a key role in it," they added.

According to them, the further dynamics of the precious metal will be determined by the sentiment on the dollar, which may change tomorrow, when the results of the next Fed meeting will be known.

"In addition to the Central Bank's decision regarding the interest rate, market participants will wait for statements about the balance, and if there is a hint of a pause in both directions, this scenario will be" bearish "for the US currency and positive for the yellow precious metal. In this case, the gold rate can update the highs of 2019. If the rhetoric of the Fed's leadership turns out to be not such a "pigeon", as expected, then the precious metal risks facing a correction as part of profit-taking for long positions. However, after a possible pause, quotes may resume movement in the north direction," analysts said.

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China's manufacturing sector alarms currency markets

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China's manufacturing sector activity in January was likely to shrink for the second month in a row, heightening concerns about the risks associated with a slowdown in China and a threat to the global economy.

Industrial leader Caterpillar has become another major international company that warned of declining demand in China, followed by chip makers and Apple. According to the average forecast of 33 economists, the official index of purchasing managers in China (PMI) in January will drop to 49.3 points from 49.4 points in December. January figures may be the weakest since February 2016. In addition, in front of the big New Year holidays and many businesses just close. Some are closing even earlier than usual, because the protracted trade war with the United States has a negative effect on orders. If Washington and Beijing do not reach a compromise that will ease the pressure on tariffs, many businesses are likely to close down forever.

In any case, weak PMI data increases the likelihood that Beijing can accelerate and intensify policy mitigation and stimulation efforts this year. Nevertheless, there remains a high probability that in the coming months business conditions in China may deteriorate, growth may fall below 6 percent in the first half of the year from 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and stabilize only at the end of the year. This is confirmed by sources in the government, who report that the authorities are planning to reduce the growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from 6.5 percent in 2018.

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Brent armed with sanctions

Aggressive cuts in Saudi Arabia and US sanctions against Venezuela could allow the North Sea variety to show better dynamics in January from 2006, and Texas from 1984. From the point of view of the monthly increase, Brent's achievements could be the most impressive since December 2016, when OPEC enlisted the support of other countries in the issue production cuts. The same thing took place in December, but this factor began to regain only after the fulfillment of obligations by the countries of the cartel. In particular, the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Khalid al-Falih, said that Riyadh reduced production to 10.2 million b / d in January and plans to reduce it to 10.1 million b / d in February. In accordance with the agreement of the cartel and other countries-producers, production in this country should fall to 10.33 million b / s.

OPEC took into account the experience of previous years, when overfulfilment of commitments made led to an increase in oil prices. At the same time, the support of the "bulls" in Brent and WTI was rendered by their ardent opponent Donald Trump, who planned to change the regime in Venezuela. The states recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president and force Nicolas Maduro to resign under a ban on oil exports. According to White House estimates, Caracas will lose $ 11 billion in revenues from the export of black gold because of the sanctions. Venezuela is the fourth largest supplier of oil to the United States, and its liabilities amount to 500 thousand b / d.

Against this background, the "bearish" news about the increase in production in the States and the first in 2019 increase in the number of drilling rigs from Backer Hughes dissolved in the total mass of positive. By the end of the week, by January 22, hedge funds had increased their long positions in Brent by 17%, which is the biggest indicator since August. Shorts were reduced by 36%, and the size of the three-week cut is the most significant in more than a year.

Dynamics of Brent and speculative positions in the North Sea variety

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On the arm of the "bulls" in Brent and WTI is the weakening of the US dollar. The derivatives market assesses the chances of the continuation of the monetary restriction cycle of the Fed at a modest 21%, and rumors about the suspension of the process of folding the balance exert additional downward pressure on the USD index. If the FOMC at its first meeting in 2019 appears to be a pronounced "dove" and the statistics on the US labor market in January disappoint, the US currency will fall into a new wave of sales, which will support black gold.

The fact that the global economy led by China is slowing down has already been taken into account in the futures for Texas and the North Sea futures, but support at $ 64-65 a barrel for Brent is able to stop the attacks of the bulls. At these levels and above, US companies actively increased production in 2018.

Technically, the correction to the "bearish" oil trend is continuing as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern to 5-0. Dropouts from 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave are usually used for sales. They correspond to the marks of $ 64.1 and $ 68.45 per barrel.

Brent, the daily chart

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GBP / USD: Does the pound have a "plan B"?

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Since early January, the pound sterling has risen in price against the dollar by more than 3%, demonstrating the best dynamics among the G10 currencies.

In this case, most of the growth took place last week.

Against the background of reducing the likelihood of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a deal, as well as waiting for the extension of article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the GBP / USD pair reached its maximum level for the first time since November last year. However, she could not stay above the level of 1.32, as investors decided to take profits, probably fearing that the euphoria around Brexit had taken the pound too far.

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Tonight, the House of Commons should consider a renewed draft divorce agreement, the so-called "Plan B".

The main intrigue is what amendments will be adopted by the parliamentarians to the document and what steps the head of the Cabinet of Ministers Theresa May will take in the future.

Among the existing proposals is to exclude the possibility of the implementation of the "hard" scenario, to postpone Brexit for several months, to limit the action of the "backstop".

Apparently, the Prime Minister has to solve an extremely difficult task, since it is possible that today's vote will be only the beginning of new debates and discussions with the Parliament or the EU. This is likely to increase, then smooth out the uncertainty.

It is assumed that if specific decisions are not made before March 29, then the GBP / USD correction is expected. Clearing the situation, on the contrary, will allow the pair to continue the rally in the direction of 1.32-1.33.

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Fed provokes storm

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Voting for the draft agreement on Brexit postponed to February 13, Theresa May promised to make adjustments to the document to increase the chances of success. Judging by the active purchases of the pound since mid-January, investors are waiting for a favorable outcome. But the decline of the British currency against the euro and the dollar should not be ruled out, as it is not yet clear what the draft document will be for the next vote.

Traders are concentrating on two other events, the Fed meeting and the US-China trade negotiations. According to some market participants, the narrowing of the Fed's bond portfolio was the cause of volatility in stock markets. Such a conclusion puzzled members of the Central Bank and other financiers, since there is no crisis in both areas where the regulator often intervenes.

The US Central Bank reduces its asset portfolio by $ 4 trillion, allowing for the redemption of bonds and mortgage-backed securities without reinvestment. Each month, the program provides for the redemption of liabilities up to $ 50 billion, while the figure was previously at $ 40 billion.

In 2017, the markets gave a minimal response to the announcement of the program, and recently many reputable players, including Stanley Druckenmiller, argue that the contraction of the portfolio is one of the main causes of volatility. Donald Trump, because of fluctuations in stock prices, advised the Central Bank to abandon such a venture.

According to Scott Minerd, director of investments at Guggenheim Partners, "this changes the psychology of investors."

The Fed is reducing its bond portfolio at the same time as the Ministry of Finance issues bonds to cover a large deficit, he noted. The overall effect, more than $ 1 trillion of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities come to the market, squeezes out capital from other investments.

CB denies

A representative of the regulator and other economists in public comments deny the fact that the contraction of the portfolio significantly increases market volatility. Recently, long-term interest rates have been falling, rather than rising, indicating strong demand for new treasury bonds, they explain. In addition, the repayment program is much narrower than the volume of new obligations that are needed to cover the increasing deficits.

The yield on 10-year bonds fell to 2.75% from 3.25%, recorded in November, when market volatility was on the rise.

The program to buy the Fed's securities, launched 10 years ago due to the financial crisis, is aimed at stimulating the economy by containing long-term rates. Lower rates provoke investors to buy risky assets, including stocks, corporate securities, and other assets, thereby boosting their growth.

Concerned about the decline in balance, they are confident that the purchase of bonds has well stimulated the interest of market participants in risky assets. Currently, the curtailment of the program also discourages investors from taking risks, but with a delayed reaction.

Rates and balance

It is not easy to separate the effect of lowering the balance and raising the rates of the US Central Bank on financial conditions. Last year, the cost of lending was increased 4 times, each time by a quarter percent, in December, the rate approached 2.25-2.5%. At the two-day meeting that started today, the Fed is unlikely to change the rates, but it will touch on the subject of reducing the balance.

According to Natixis Bank experts, a decline in the balance sheet may be equivalent to a 0.5% increase in the short-term rate. Some investors experienced discomfort and anxiety about the bond portfolio after the signal about the general attitude of the Central Bank in relation to rates and the economy. The market can take a strong commitment to reduce assets in the portfolio for a hint of the willingness of the regulator to withstand high rates while economic growth is slowing.

Jerome Powell on the eve attempted to eliminate these fears. He argued that the decline in the balance sheet was not a serious factor affecting the market turbulence that began at the end of last year.

The Fed has everything under control

According to Powell, if the bank came to a different conclusion, then "without the slightest hesitation would make the appropriate changes."

The majority of respondents The Wall Street Journal shares the words of the head of the Central Bank of the USA. Half of the respondents believe that the regulator's policy "had little or even zero effect on financial conditions, while 44% called the measures of financial officials relevant to the markets. They were considered "extremely important" by 5% of economists.

Note that the narrowing of the balance sheet could lead to a drop in the value of assets and toughening of financial conditions against the background of the movement of reserves in the banking system, accumulated during the purchase of bonds. Reserves are banks' deposits on the Fed's balance sheet, with which you can assess the security of the financial system with capital.

This channel also has no significant effect. The reduction of reserves has been going on since 2014, and the stock market has been growing most of the time in the last 5 years. Prior to last week, reserves reached $ 1.6 trillion compared with a peak of $ 2.8 trillion in 2014.

And yet, there is little evidence that the reduction in reserves in the banking system has worsened the growth of lending. In the fourth quarter, the indicator approached multi-year highs.

According to the chief economist of JPMorgan Michael Feroli, it is pointless to believe that the decline in the Fed's liquidity level is reflected in the markets. "Many years ago there were widespread fears that the Fed would flood the world with dollars, and these fears were ultimately in vain," he concluded.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 29. Traders continue to wait for the next Brexit vote

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The situation in the pound has not changed, except that buyers managed to keep the support level of 1.3137, which leaves hope for the continued growth of the pound. In the evening, another vote will be held on Brexit in the British Parliament, which can support the British pound, provided that it is possible to agree on a transfer of the date of exit from the EU. The breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.3186 will be a signal to new purchases of the pound in order to update the maximum of 1.3257 and 1.3348, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound below the support level of 1.3137, it is best to return to long positions to rebound from the lows of 1.3077 and 1.3013.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Under the scenario, if the Brexit agreement is not accepted, exactly like the changes that Theresa May offers today, the pressure on the pound may increase. The repeated test of the support level of 1.3137 will be the first signal to open short positions in order to decrease to the area of 1.3077 and 1.3013, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a pound rising above 1.3186, it is best to consider new sales, provided that a false breakdown is formed in the resistance area of 1.3257 or on a rebound from the maximum of 1.3348.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the possible formation of a downward corrective trend.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on January 29. The bears in no hurry to return to the market

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The euro buyers failed to cope with the morning task of returning to the resistance area of 1.1457, which could lead to the formation of a downward correction in the afternoon. It is best to consider long positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1422 or to rebound from a larger level of 1.1387. The main goal of buyers is a breakthrough and consolidation above the maximum of 1.1457, which will lead EUR / USD to the area of new levels of 1.1490 and 1.1526, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The divergence, to which I paid attention in my morning review, worked fine for myself, and as long as trading continues to be below the resistance level of 1.1457, the pressure on the euro will continue. The breakthrough and consolidation below the support level of 1.1422 will lead to a larger sale of EUR / USD with a minimum of 1.1387 and 1.1342, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above 1.1457, you can sell the euro to rebound from a maximum of 1.1490.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is gradually returning to the area of 30-day and 50-moving averages, which indicates a possible change in the upward trend.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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The head of the ECB conducted a verbal intervention against the growth of the euro

The head of the ECB made a comment on the state of the Eurozone economy, saying that he was concerned about the decline in growth in Europe. Draghi said that the ECB is ready to use all of its resources to support growth in the Eurozone, including even the possibility of a new launch of the QE program (a program to inject liquidity into the markets). Note that the previous liquidity injection program in the huge amount of 2.5 trillion euros was completed only in December 2019.

The ECB's main rate is zero, the deposit rate minus 0.4% is a very long time ago.

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US Treasury sells bonds to replenish the budget

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The US Treasury actively supports the sale of long-term bonds at a record high price. This is necessary to cover the growing budget deficit. The agency plans to raise about $ 1 trillion of funds from the placement of business papers.

According to forecasts of a number of experts, in the coming days, the treasury will keep sales of promissory notes and bonds at record levels, at times increasing their volumes. The total volume of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities that are scheduled to be auctioned next week could reach $ 84 billion.

The increase in the supply of state bonds was preceded by measures to reduce taxes, as well as an increase in government spending. According to experts, this worsens the financial prospects of the American economy against the background of rising costs for servicing the country's debt. Note that the size of the US debt is approaching $ 16 trillion.

According to Brian Edmonds of the analytical company Cantor Fitzgerald, the offer of securities in the US stock market will increase. Experts from a number of large companies, such as Citigroup Inc., TD Securities, Deutsche Bank, and Wells Fargo Securities, agree with him. Analysts from a number of companies, including NatWest Markets and UBS Securities Inc., expect the ministry to increase sales of debt obligations. They believe that in the next three months, refinancing on 3-year, 10-year and 30-year securities will increase by $ 1 billion.

In 2018, the size of the issue of the Ministry of Finance of the United States amounted to $ 1.34 trillion, which more than doubled the volume of 2017, equal to $ 550 billion. the remaining amount is on bills of exchange. In the next four years, the volume of the new issue will vary in the range from $ 1.25 trillion to $ 1.4 trillion, experts at Deutsche Bank predict.

Last year, the US budget deficit reached a six-year high of $ 780 billion. According to forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office, this year the budget deficit will be $ 973 billion, and in 2020 it will exceed $ 1 trillion. In the next ten years, the US authorities will spend about $ 7 trillion on servicing the national debt.

Imposing US government debt figures create tension among market participants. According to Jeffrey Gundlach, an investor, and founder of the investment company DoubleLine Capital, the US economy may be completely bogged down in debt. He considers the high level of the state debt of the country and its active growth to be one of the main risks for the economy. The billionaire investor Seth Klarman agrees with him, adding to the number of risks America's declining influence around the world.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on January 29

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we should continue moving upwards after the breakdown of 1.1464 and the level of 1.1392 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, we should continue moving upwards and wait for the passage to pass at the price of the range of 1.3197 - 1.3245 and the level of 1.3058 is the key support. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the price is in the correction zone of the rising structure on January 10 and the level of 0.9906 is the key support for the top. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are following the formation of the downward structure of January 25 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 108.98. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, we expect further uptrend after the breakdown of 125.15. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price is in the correction and we expect the continuation of the upward movement after the breakdown of 144.90, the level of 142.69 is the key support.

Forecast for January 29:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1548, 1.1514, 1.1464, 1.1415, 1.1392, 1.1366 and 1.1337. Here, we are following the formation of the ascending structure from January 24th. The continuation of the development of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1464. In this case, the target is 1.1514. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1548, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1415 - 1.1392 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1366 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will lead to the formation of initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the target is 1.1337.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1466 Take profit: 1.1512

Buy 1.1515 Take profit: 1.1546

Sell: 1.1415 Take profit: 1.1392

Sell: 1.1390 Take profit: 1.1366

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3431, 1.3350, 1.3245, 1.3197, 1.3118, 1.3058 and 1.2981. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 15. An upward movement is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3197 - 1.3245. In this case, the target is 1.3350, and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3431, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3118 - 1.3058 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.2981 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3245 Take profit: 1.3350

Buy: 1.3353 Take profit: 1.3430

Sell: 1.3118 Take profit: 1.3060

Sell: 1.3055 Take profit: 1.2984

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0065, 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9930, 0.9906, 0.9874 and 0.9847. Here, we continue to follow the development of the upward cycle from January 10. At the moment, the price is in correction. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.9984. In this case, the target is 1.0034. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0065, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation, are possible in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9906. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.9874 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure. Its breakdown will lead to a movement to the level of 0.9847.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 10, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9986 Take profit: 1.0032

Buy: 1.0035 Take profit: 1.0065

Sell: 0.9904 Take profit: 0.9880

Sell: 0.9872 Take profit: 0.9848

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 110.33, 110.07, 109.92, 109.66, 109.50, 108.98, 108.75, 108.58 and 108.32. Here, we are following the formation of the downward structure from January 25th. We expect the downward movement to continue after the breakdown of 108.98. Here, the target is 108.75 and in the range of 108.75 - 108.58 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 108.32, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 109.50. - 109.66 and the breakdown of the last value will have to develop the ascending structure. Here, the goal is 109.92 and the range of 109.92 - 110.07. Its price passage will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 110.33.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of January 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.67 Take profit: 109.92

Buy: 110.08 Take profit: 110.30

Sell: 108.98 Take profit: 108.75

Sell: 108.58 Take profit: 108.32

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3370, 1.3349, 1.3316, 1.3290, 1.3242, 1.3232, 1.3219 and 1.3197. Here, the price forms a pronounced potential for the upward movement of January 28. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3290. In this case, the goal is 1.3316, and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3316 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 1.3349. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3370, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3242 - 1.3232 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3219 and this level is the key support for the downward structure. Its breakdown will make it possible to count on the movement towards a potential target of 1.3197.

The main trend is the formation of potential for the top of January 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3290 Take profit: 1.3314

Buy: 1.3318 Take profit: 1.3349

Sell: 1.3232 Take profit: 1.3220

Sell: 1.3217 Take profit: 1.3197

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7296, 0.7267, 0.7225, 0.7208, 0.7160, 0.7143 and 0.7119. Here, the price forms a pronounced ascending structure of January 25. The short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 0.7208 - 0.7225 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7267. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.7296, from which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7160 - 0.7143 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7119 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of January 25.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7208 Take profit: 0.7225

Buy: 0.7227 Take profit: 0.7265

Sell: 0.7160 Take profit: 0.7145

Sell: 0.7140 Take profit: 0.7122

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, the price has issued a local structure to continue upwards movement on January 24. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.74 - 123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 122.03, up to this level, we expect clearance of the expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 24.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.68, 145.74, 144.86, 143.91, 143.36, 142.69 and 141.12. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of January 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.86. In this case, the target is 145.74. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 146.68, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 143.91 - 143.36 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 142.69 and the range of 142.69 - 142.12 is the key support for the top. In it, we expect the initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.90 Take profit: 145.70

Buy: 145.75 Take profit: 146.65

Sell: 143.90 Take profit: 143.40

Sell: 143.30 Take profit: 142.70

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of EUR / GBP for January 29

Large-scale graphics:

In the ascending wave of the cross, which began in mid-April last year, there were some structural changes. The descending section that began at the end of the year, instead of the intermediate adjustment of the last part (C), took the place of full correction of the whole wave (B).

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Medium scale graphics:

The direction of the short-term trend is set by the bearish wave of December 10th. The current wave level allows us to assign its scale to the TF H4.

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Small-scale graphics:

A downward stretch of January 3 completes a larger wave model. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the powerful zone of support for the older TF, however, the reversal signals are still not observed.

Forecast and recommendations:

Based on the wave formation algorithm, the current decline will soon have to be replaced by the beginning of an upturn. No reversal signals on the chart have been observed so far, so it is recommended that traders refrain from trading deals until the wave pattern is cleared.

Resistance zones:

- 0.8930 / 0.8980

Support areas:

- 0.8630 / 0.8580

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brexit and EUR: the UK and the EU can stay without a deal. Draghi is ready to stimulate growth in the eurozone economy

Yesterday's speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was calm enough and did not lead to serious changes in the market, as the ECB President mostly repeated his statements made last Thursday.

Draghi noted that incoming economic data is still weaker than expected, reflecting lower external demand. In his opinion, the uncertainty associated with geopolitics and protectionism will continue to put pressure on consumer sentiment, on which future economic growth largely depends. The European Central Bank is ready to adjust all its instruments if necessary. This again proves that it is not necessary to expect a quick rise in interest rates in the eurozone, and this is the summer of this year. Apparently, only a good second quarter will be a prerequisite for serious consideration of the question of tightening monetary policy.

Yesterday's data on lending in the euro area had slight pressure on the euro, although overall the report was rather stable.

Thus, the annual growth of lending to non-financial companies in December amounted to 4%, as in November, while lending to households in the eurozone rose by 3.3% in December, while economists had expected growth of 3.4%. Let me remind you that the eurozone economy is highly dependent on the availability of funding.

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The key indicator of money supply M3 was higher than expected. Annual growth in December accelerated to 4.1% from 3.7% in November.

As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, further growth of the euro will be possible only after breaking through the next resistance around 1.1455, which will open the way for risky assets in the 1.1490 and 1.1530 areas. In the case of a downward correction, which can be observed before the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve System, the levels of 1.1390 and 1.1340 will provide support.

The data released yesterday on the American economy did not strongly support the US dollar.

According to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the manufacturing index in January 2019 rose to 14.5 points versus 7.3 points in December, while economists expected the index to be 4 points. Good growth in activity will support the economy. Growth was observed in the production sub-index, but the employment sub-index declined slightly.

The activity in the services sector in the area of responsibility of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in January remained at a high level, although it slightly decreased. According to the Fed-Kansas City report, the index fell in January of this year to 17 points from 25 points in December.

An interesting report from the Congressional Budget Office was also published yesterday. As far as you know, the work of the US government, although resumed, is only temporary.

The report states that the suspension of the work of the US government, which began at the end of last year, is likely to take 0.4 pp. from GDP growth in the 1st quarter of this year. It is expected that the suspension will cost $ 3 billion, or 0.02% of the projected GDP growth in 2019. Despite this, the management expects that the weakening of economic growth as a result of the suspension of the work of the US government will be leveled over time.

Brexit

Today, all attention in the second half of the day will be riveted to a vote in the British Parliament on the Brexit plan proposed by Prime Minister Theresa May. It will depend on him further direction of the pound. The pressure on the GBPUSD pair could significantly increase if there are real prerequisites for a British exit from the EU without a deal. This was announced yesterday by the deputy chief negotiator for Brexit by the EU, Sabine Weyand.

If an agreement is reached on extending the exit from the EU, the pound may strengthen its position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of USD / CHF for January 29

Large-scale graphics:

The wave structure of the franc major up to now is still rising, dated February 16 of last year. The first parts of the wave are completely formed, in the beginning of autumn the final segment started.

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Medium scale graphics:

From September 21, a distinct upward zigzag is formed on the chart. The conditions for the final breakthrough are formed throughout the current month.

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Small-scale graphics:

The rising wave that began on January 10 launched the final part (C) in a larger wave model. Given the co-ownership of structures of several TFs at a time, then it is worth waiting for the further increase in the wave level of this movement.

Forecast and recommendations:

On the chart of the instrument, the preparation is completed before a powerful price increase. As part of settlement support, it is recommended to track buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0030 / 1.0080

Support areas:

- 0.9910 / 0.9860

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 01/29/2019

Market participants are clearly preparing for today's vote in the British Parliament on the issue of Theresa May on the withdrawal from the European Union. In a strange way, but the parliamentarians, who were previously extremely talkative, now do not make harsh statements. So from this point of view, there is every reason to believe that the Iron Lady - 2 will receive parliamentary approval. However, if you look at the behavior of market participants who actively bought a pound, and not only, it feels like they are morally preparing for massive sales and do not strongly believe in a positive result of the vote. Moreover, only the plan of action will be considered, and not the agreement itself, which will still need to be knocked out from Europe. So there is a high probability that even if the result is positive for Theresa May, we will not see a pound increase. Rather, some of the comments that follow will also have a negative impact.

The euro / dollar currency pair managed to jump to the level of 1.1440, where the stagnation process began. Probably assume the preservation of this wagging, where we are waiting for the announcement of the verdict of the British Parliament. A similar scenario, like fellow pound / dollar.

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The currency pair pound / dollar on emotions managed to get to the level of 1.3200, after which the process of rollback began. Probably assume a temporary chat on the eve of the vote, wherein the event of another failure, we will again go down.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. January 29. The next X hour for the UK has arrived. Will there be surprises today?

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 72.5092

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, January 29, began a very weak downward correction. For the British currency, as well as for the UK itself, the next important day has come. Today in the British Parliament is scheduled to vote on the so-called plan "B" of Theresa May about Brexit. According to many experts, the parliament will not accept this plan either. And then after that, the fun begins. First, the failure of this attempt to push through the Checkers plan can again cause displeasure among the opposition political forces. Theresa May can be declared a new vote of no confidence. Secondly, the actions of Theresa May herself. It is already clear that it will be difficult to meet the requirements of the European Union and the British Parliament, we need new negotiations and concessions. Without this, an agreement is unlikely to be signed. But no one wants to give up in this situation, although both sides declare that they want to avoid the "tough" Brexit scenario. In such a situation, both the EU and the British Parliament will seem to just take time, waiting for a plan that suits them, but Theresa May, who has not yet succeeded, will have to decide this question. Therefore, in the near future, perhaps, this issue will be someone else.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3123

S2 - 1.3062

S3 - 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3184

R2 - 1.3245

R3 - 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD began to be adjusted. Heikin Ashi's upward reversal will signal the opening of new long positions with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3306. Late in the evening, you should be ready for unexpected reversals of the instrument, since a vote will be taken in parliament.

Short positions can be considered in the case of bears attached below the moving average line. The trend in the instrument will change to downward, and the first target for the downward movement will be the level of 1.3000.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD. January 29. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Mario Draghi again disappointed, but the euro has nowhere

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 121.5528

On the second trading day of the week, the EUR / USD currency pair continues its uptrend, as shown by the indicator Heikin Ashi. In his speech at the European Parliament, the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, once again expressed his concern that in the past few months macroeconomic indicators were weaker than forecasts. Draghi also said that the deterioration of the dynamics is associated with the threat of protectionist policies, as well as geopolitical risks. In addition, the head of the ECB noted the decline in the role of the euro currency in world reserves and debt markets. Thus, such a statement cannot be called optimistic; nevertheless, the euro continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace. We once again note that the level of 1.1292 and the area around it is the strongest support for the currency pair. Thus, in order to break through and continue the downward trend, very strong fundamental factors will be needed. While they are not there, the pair can "hang out" between this area and the level of 1.1500. The problem is that starting the upward trend of the pair does not give all the same fundamental factor, since we do not get any positive from the eurozone. It is also unknown how the UK exit from the EU will affect the eurozone economy. To date, there are no major macroeconomic publications planned in the States or the EU.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1414

S2 - 1.1353

S3 - 1.1292

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1475

R2 - 1.1536

R3 - 1.1597

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD continues to move up. Thus, now remain relevant long positions with a target of 1.1475. Heikin Ashi's turn down will indicate the beginning of a downward correction round.

Short positions are recommended to be opened after overcoming the moving averages by traders. The first target for the downward movement, in this case, will be the level of 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for January 29. The euro currency is preparing to roll back

4h

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The currency pair EUR / USD has completed growth to the correctional level of 38.2% - 1.1446. The rebound from this Fibo level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. Also, on January 29, the bearish divergence of the CCI indicator continues to mature. Its formation will increase the likelihood of rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 38.2%. Closing the pair above 38.2% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the correction level of 50.0% - 1.1517.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the currency pair rebounded from the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285 and after this continues the growth process in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. Rebounding quotes from the Fibo level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the American currency and a slight fall towards the correction level of 127.2%. A fixation above the level of 100.0% will work in favor of continued growth.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

New purchases of the currency pair EUR / USD will be possible with the goal of 1.1517, if the pair closes above the level of 38.2%, and a Stop Loss order under 1.1446.

Sales of the currency pair EUR / USD will be possible with the goal of 1.1358 with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 38.2% if the pair bounces off the level of 1.1446, especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of the divergence of GBP / USD for January 29. Bullish divergence can help the pound.

4h

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The currency pair GBP / USD on the 4-hour chart completed closing above the Fibo level of 76.4% - 1.3098. Thus, on January 29, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 100.0% - 1.3300. Bovine divergence at CCI indicator is brewing, which increases the likelihood of resumption of growth in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0%. Closing a pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will work in favor of the American dollar.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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On the hourly chart, the currency pair completed under the correction level of 200.0% - 1.3192. As a result, the process began to fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.3044. None of the indicators have ripening divergences. Fixing a pair of quotes above the correction level of 200.0% will work in favor of the pound sterling and the resumption of growth in the direction of the correction level of 261.8% - 1.3418.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from December 31, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the currency pair GBP / USD can be carried out with the target of 1.3418 and a Stop Loss order below the level of 200.0% if the pair closes above the level of 1.1919 (hourly chart).

The currency pair GBP / USD can be sold now with the target at 1.3044 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 200.0%, as the pair completed the closure below the level of 1.3192 (hourly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets are waiting for a vote on Brexit

The dollar continues to trade unevenly against major currencies in the wake of a significant number of multidirectional factors that affect not only the rate of the US currency but also the dynamics of other major currencies.

The first and main reason is the fall in expectations that the Fed this year will decide to raise interest rates at least once against the two previously declared. In addition, it is believed that the American regulator may stop the process of reducing its balance. True, it is not straightforward, but the slowdown in global economic growth, high volatility in the asset market in the States, and constant pressure from President D. Trump may, according to a number of analysts, force the Fed to take this step.

The second reason is the already undisguised signals of a slowdown in the growth of the global economy, which was the basis for the fall in demand for stocks of companies and commodity assets. In this situation, defense assets are in demand, government bonds of economically strong countries, primarily the USA and Germany, then gold and the Japanese yen. The dollar so far falls out of this traditional list for the reason mentioned above.

The third factor influencing the dynamics of currency pairs where the US dollar is present is, on the one hand, the hope that the negotiations between the PRC and the US on trade will be successful, the Australian and New Zealand dollars will win, and on the other, a clear signal from the ECB and personally its President M. Draghi, that the European regulator is not likely to raise interest rates this year. This puts pressure on the euro, but the weakness of the dollar is so strong that the main currency pair, EUR / USD, continues to grow smoothly.

The fourth reason for the current dynamics in the foreign exchange market is the picture taking shape around the process of the UK leaving the European Union. Recently, sterling has received significant support, not because of clarification of the situation around Brexit, but contrary to this. The market clearly hopes that either a new referendum will be held in the country, which will lead to the termination of this process, or a "reasonable" agreement will be reached. Today in London will be another vote in the local parliament on this topic. The result of it can both cause a new fall in sterling, and the continuation of its growth. Everything will depend on the result.

Also, today begins a two-day Fed meeting on monetary policy. No change in interest rates is expected. But investors will be interested in their prospects and a general assessment of the state of the US economy, in the light of the release of the updated GDP data for the 4th quarter of last year on Wednesday.

Forecast of the day:

The currency pair EUR / USD is below the level of 1.1440. The pair may adjust downwards if the vote in the British Parliament turns out to be negative for sterling. In this case, the pair, falling below 1.1415, may fall to 1.1385.

The currency pair GBP / USD is consolidating, pending a vote in parliament. Positive news, if they will, will support the pair and lead to the continuation of its growth to 1.3255. The negative will put pressure on it and may fall to 1.3075 or even lower to 1.3015.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD short-term technical levels with Linear Channels and trading recommendations for January 29, 2019

Blue-channel is based on the price movement of Yesterday.

Violet-channel is based on the previous two-days consolidations.

Yellow-channel is based on the previous three-days consolidations.

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Lack of enough bullish momentum was demonstrated on the depicted chart so that Today's recent movement has been going into sideways consolidations.

The pair is currently moving within the depicted Violet channel (Two-Days movement) after bullish breakout of the BLUE channel was demonstrated few hours ago.

This enhances the bullish side of the market on the short-term provided that no bearish decline occurs below the daily low around 1.3128.

Projected bullish target is located around 1.3215 where the mid-range of the depicted Yellow channel is located.

Bullish fixation above 1.3215 expands the bullish potential towards 1.3280 where the upper limit of the Yellow channel is located.

On the other hand, When we Look to the downside, the GBP/USD pair has an Intraday support located around 1.3080 which corresponds to lower limit of the BLUE channel.

This level would be the 1st bearish destination in case a bearish breakdown below the daily low (1.3128) takes place.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for January 29, 2019

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Recently, GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3160. GBP/USD is still trading inside the upward Pitchfork channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. There is a potential end of the downward correction (running flat) which will open the way for a new wave up. The overall trend is still bullish and I would advice you to watch for a bullish breakout. The key resistance level is set at the price of 1.3220, while the key support is 1.3050. I have also found a breakout of the supply trendline, which is a sign that we may see an expansion in the price very soon.

Trading recommendations for today: We are long GBP/USD at 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3220-1.3270. Protective stop is placed at the price of 1.3050.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 29, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3048 today. So, the support is found at the level of 1.3048, which represents the pivot point in the H1 time frame. Since the trend is above the pivoti level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 1.3048. The current price is set at the level of 1.3080. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between 1.3048 and 1.3139. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.3048 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.3139. If the trend breaks the support at 1.3139 (first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.3222 in order to test the daily resistance 2. In the same time frame, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3048 and 1.3222. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.2959.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 29, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when significant bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2999 (Bearish Engulfing candlestick around the depicted downtrend line in RED).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 when the current bearish pullback was initiated around 1.3215.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3150 (Broken Supply Level) should be maintained on a daily basis. This enhances another bullish visit towards 1.3240.

On the other hand, any decline below 1.3150 will probably bring the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction that extends down to 1.3000 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.3000 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3135 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2950 invalidates this scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 29, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 1.0031, while minor resistance is seen at 0.9987. Support is found at the levels of 0.9884 and 0.9819. Also, it should be noted that a daily pivot point has already set at the level of 0.9939. Equally important, the USD/CHF pair is still moving around the key level at 0.9939, which represents a daily pivot in the H1 time frame at the moment. Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair continued to move upwards from the level of 0.9939. The pair rose from the level of 0.9939(this level of 0.9939 coincides with the double bottom) to the top around 0.9987. In consequence, the USD/CHF pair broke resistance, which turned strong support at the level of 0.9884. The level of 0.9884 is expected to act as major support today. From this point, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 0.9884 towards the target level of 0.9987. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9987, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9987 in order to reach the second target at 1.0031. However, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9819, then this scenario may be invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 29, 2019

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Bitcoin continues to drop as expected. It respects the Pitchfork downward channel nicely and it is doing good job towards the median. Since the key support cluster at $3.420 is broken and successfully retested, we expect downward continuation. I also found the successful breakout of the mini upward Pitchfork channel, which is another sign of the underlying weakness.The short-mid term trend is bearish and you should go with the direction of the overall trend.

R1: $3.520

R2: $3.610

R3: $3.680

Pivot: $3.446

S1: $3.358

S2: $3.283

S3: $3.195

Trading recommendation: We are still short BTC/USD from $3.392 and with the target at $3.107. Protective stop is placed at the price of $3.550

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 29, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has demonstraed an obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times until yesterday when the daily candlestick achieved a bullish closure above 1.1420.

Further bullish advancement should be expected towards the price level of 1.1520 where the upper border of both depicted channels (RED & BLUE) is located.

Around 1.1520, there's a confluence of supply levels (upper border of depicted channels & previous historical bottoms) where bearish rejection as well as a valid SELL entry would be expected.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards the price level of 1.1500 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels should be located around 1.1420 and 1.1300. S/L should be located above 1.1570.

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Analysis of Gold for January 29, 2019

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Gold continues to rally as expected. It respects the Pitchfork upward channel nicely and it is doing good job towards the median line of the larger channel. Since the key resistance is broken at $1,298.00, we don't see any big resistance around and any signs of a reversal.

R1: $1,305.70

R2: $1,308.60

R3: $1,312.75

Pivot: $1,301.00

S1: $1,298.24

S2: $1,293.00

S3: $1,291.40

Trading recommendation: We are still long Gold from $1,285 and $1,300.00 (added position yesterday). We are moving our stop loss on both positions at $1,300.00, thereby securing profit. Our main target is $1,340.00 (median line).

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 29. New downtrend?

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, January 28, trading ended for EUR / USD by another 25 bp increase. Thus, the expected wave 2 in the composition of the supposedly new downward trend section continues its construction. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the level of 38.2% on the older grid, or 61.8% on the youngest, will indicate that the pair is ready to build a third downward wave with targets located below figure 13 There are still doubts about the ability of the instrument for this option, since we need a strong news background for the new pair reduction.

Sales targets:

1,1289 - 0.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1462 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a correctional wave 2. Thus, its completion should lead to a resumption of the decline with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.1289 and 1.1215, which equates to 0.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci. Now I recommend cautious sales of the pair with designated targets and orders limiting possible losses above the level of 38.2% on the older Fibonacci grid.

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 29. Will the growth of the pound after the vote in parliament?

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Wave counting analysis:

On January 28, the GBP / USD pair dropped by 30 bps. and the current wave counting again has not suffered any changes or additions. Tonight, in the British Parliament, a second vote on the issue of Brexit was held. The pound sterling in recent weeks did not pay any attention to the events associated with Brexit. Therefore, the evening session of the Parliament will be doubly interesting. Moreover, the further behavior of the pair and the wave marking will Depend on the decision with the EU and subsequent events.

Shopping goals:

1,3297 - 127.2% Fibonacci

1.3367 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2996 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.2889 - 61.8% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern involves the construction of 5 internal waves in part 3, but this wave counting can be broken if parliament makes an unprecedented or unexpected decision today. Now, I recommend purchases with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.3397 and 1.3367, which corresponds to 127.2% and 127.2% in Fibonacci, since the estimated wave 3 does not look completely complete. In the evening, I recommend trading very carefully.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 29, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

On Tuesday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1464 is the recoiling level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1464 is the recoiling level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for January 29, 2019

The recent US Government shutdown has affected the overall growth of the US economy and the greenback. So, CAD managed to gain momentum in the meantime despite downbeat economic reports from Canada. Ahead of the FOMC policy meeting, Federal Funds Rate decision, and NFP report later this week, the pair is expected to trade with higher volatility.

According to flash estimates, the overall US economy lost about $11 billion. If everything settles down soon, $8 billion can be recovered very soon. The question is still open when that is going to happen. The US economy is likely to lose $3 billion or more as a fallout of the partial federal government shutdown due to President Donald Trump's demand for the border wall funding. The shutdown could hamper the US economic growth in 2019 by 0.02%, whereas 800,000 federal employees are left without payment for these days. Today CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 125.0 from the previous figure of 128.1. On the other hand, a worse result may undermine USD ahead of FOMC and NFP this week.

On the CAD side, recently almost all the economic reports from Canada were published with worse-than-expected readings. For example, Retail Sales slumped to -0.9% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at -0.6% and Manufacturing Sales contracted to -1.4% from the previous value of -0.1%. Recently Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau stated that the economy and businesses are facing headwinds from the US-China Trade dispute as well as his country's own diplomatic tensions with China. This week on Thursday, CAD GDP, RMPI and IPPI reports are going to be published which will make higher impact on the upcoming CAD gains.

Meanwhile, both currencies in the pair are still quite indecisive ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports. The US economy has been hurt by the partial government shutdown. So, any positive print in the upcoming economic reports from Canada may reinforce CAD in the short term, thus creating bearish momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is trading inside the corrective range between 1.3200-1.3350, from where a breakout with a daily close will provide a directional movement in the pair. Though USD is currently the weaker currency in the pair, the pending macroeconomic reports, including the Fed's policy meeting and NFP, could trigger sudden spikes and change in a direction. As the price remains below 1.3350 area, the bearish pressure is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2850, 1.30, 1.3200

RESISTANCE: 1.3350, 1.3450, 1.3500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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