Gold analysis for December 24, 2014

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of 1,177.00. We are facing very low activity on the market due to the holidays. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.172.00 has been held successfully, which is a sign that selling gold at this stage looks risky. According to the H4 time frame, we can observe selling climax in the background and then sideways. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities near the lows. Any larger demand in a high volume may confirm further bullish phase. According to the daily time frame, we can observe neutral bar in a very low volume.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,183.21


R2: 1,186.15


R3: 1,190.93


Support levels:


S1: 1,173.65


S2: 1,170.71


S3: 1,165.93


Trading recommendations: Watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the lows).


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EUR/NZD analysis for December 24, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading sideways around the price of 1.5800. According to the daily time frame, we got supply in a volume below the average, which caused price to continue with upward movement. I placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels and got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5900 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6000. Selling EUR/NZD at this stage looks risky since we saw a lack of supply around the price of 1.5745. We are waiting for a larger activity on the market and stronger price action.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5830


R2: 1.5854


R3: 1.5891


Support levels:


S1: 1.5755


S2: 1.5731


S3: 1.5693


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling the EUR/NZD pair since we have a lack of supply around the level of 1.5750.


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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for December 24, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair is still testing the back side of the resistance line, which is supported around 1.5320 levels. A bullish bounce here could push prices towards 1.5525 levels and higher. Immediate support is seen at 1.5285 (interim), followed by 1.5075, 1.5000 and 1.4950 while resistance is seen at 1.5450/75 and 1.5550 respectively. It is recommended to remain long from earlier positions, risk at break even. Bulls should remain in control till prices remain above 1.5100 levels. A push above 1.5400 levels would confirm that the pair is headed towards fresh highs in the coming sessions to come.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at break even levels, target is open.


Good luck!


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Silver technical analysis for December 24, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver bounced off the $15.50 mark earlier and retested the same level again on December 22, before bouncing back. Please note that the metal has remained broadly between $15.50 and $16.20 levels. Immediate support is seen at $15.50 (interim), followed by $14.50 and lower, while resistance is seen at $16.20, followed by $17.25, $17.40/50, $17.80/18.00 and higher respectively. As depicted here, the metal might be forming a right shoulder of a potential inverted head and shoulder reversal around $15.50 levels. Bulls should remain in control, untill prices remain comfortably above $14.50 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at $14.50, target is open.


Good luck!


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Gold technical analysis for December 24, 2014


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold has dropped to $1,170.00 levels, as was expected and discussed earlier. The metal is trading at $1,176.00 levels for now and might be preparing to stage a rally from here on. Please note that Fibonacci 0.618 support is also around the current price action. A bullish rally from here would bring back bulls under control and extend up to at least $1,255.00 levels. It is recommended to hold long positions and also look to add further at the current levels. Immediate support is seen at $1,160.00/65.00 levels, followed by $1,140.00, $1,130 and lower while resistance is seen at $1,220.00/25.00, followed by $1,235.00, $1,255.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are expected to remain in control untill prices remain above $1,140.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop below $1,150.00, target is open.


Good luck!


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 24, 2014

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.


The price zone of 1.5890-1.5870 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days. However, bears quickly managed to push lower.


Failure of the market to defend the price zone of 1.5890-1.5900 allowed bears to push towards the support level located around 1.5550 where recent congestion zone was established above.


Recently, the market failed to express bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (upper limit of the daily bearish channel). Instead, extensive bearish breakout was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown was successfully executed yesterday).


Note that DAILY fixation below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 renders the current consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with potential projected target at 1.5310 (similarto what happened back in October 2014).


Key level for the current week's movement is 1.5600. Persistence below it signals bearish tendency on the market and vice is versa.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 24, 2014

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Bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern and the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel were established.


Recently, the daily fixation below 1.2360 (the lower limit of the depicted broken congestion zone) extended the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2250.


However, after bears could fixate below 1.2360, evident bullish recovery was expressed so that bulls could reach the price level of 1.2560 few days later.


Bearish pressure that originated off 1.2560 (the upper limit of the movement channel) led to a breakdown of the price level of 1.2250 which supported the EUR/USD pair for a long time.


For intraday traders, the price level of 1.2150 remains a significant Fibonacci expansion level. Intraday DEMAND will probably be present at retesting.


Trade Recommendations :


As anticipated, risky traders could have benefited from the bearish breakout below 1.2250. This breakout exposes potential projection target roughly located around 1.2100.


Conservative traders should be looking for SHORT positions. Best low-risk entries may be taken around 1.2260 (the latest broken bottom).


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 24, 2014

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Technical Summary:


We are still looking for a break above the resistance at 1.5881 as a confirmation that a bottom is in the place at 1.5724 for a rally towards at least 1.6163. As long as the resistance at 1.5881 protects the upside, there is still a risk of decline below the support at 1.5643 and if it happens, a new decline to 1.5398 and, most likely, below it should be expected. For now, we just have to watch, which way it will break, but we do favor the upside.


Trading Recommendation:


We will buy EUR upon a break above 1.5881 with stop placed at 1.5720.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 24, 2014

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Two weeks ago, the GBP/USD pair found intraday DEMAND around 1.5550 where many lows were previously established back in November.


Moreover, previous multiple bottoms were established above 1.5550-1.5580, rendering it a prominent DEMAND zone.


The DAILY outlook looked quite bullish while bulls were defending the lower limit of the consolidation range around 1.5550 for many successive weeks. However, a bearish breakout was expressed yesterday.


The bears have already reached down to 1.5485. Daily closure confirmed the bearish breakout.


Now we are seeing a bearish flag pattern similar to what happened back in October provided that the market does not reach above 1.5550 (recent SUPPLY level).


Projection target would be located around the price level of 1.5350.


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A consolidation movement ranging between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 took place.


It represented the state of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


As anticipated, the bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Potential projection target for this range breakout pattern should be located around 1.5330-1.5350.


On the other hand, conservative traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the prominent SUPPLY zone located around 1.5660 for a low-risk SHORT position.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 24 - 2014

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Technical Summary:


We are still looking for a rally slightly higher to 148.23 to end wave x and then we should see the next decline towards 142.06. If, however, the resistance at 148.23 is broken the corrective pattern changes to a flat correction, that would call for a rally to 149.78 before we should expect the next move lower. We are in a small wave (ii) correction and once this correction is over, new highs above 149.78 should be seen.


Trading Recommendation:


We long EUR from 147.05 with stop placed at 145.90. We will move stop higher to 146.40 once minor resistance at 147.15 is broken, and keep our take profit at 148.05


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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 24, 2014

General overview for 24/12/2014 08:10 CET


The wave progression is still trying to develop the last stages of a complex corrective cycle in wave Y. Since the last week, the range zone between the levels of 1.1558 and 1.1664 has been well respected. The suggested pattern of a complex corrective cycle in the overall wave 4 purple looks like a double three correction with a triangle pattern as the last in the progression. The recent leg down labeled as the wave e green of wave 4 purple might be its last leg down. A long-awaited upside breakout might be just about to happen. Only a breakout below the level of 1.1500 would invalidate this scenario. Please notice that the mid- and longer-term bias are bullish, and new highs are expected.


Support/ Resistance:


1.1733 - WR2


1.1672 - WR1


1.1645 - Intraday Resistance


1.1610 - Weekly Pivot


1.1558 - Intraday Support


1.1546 - WS1


1.1500 - Technical Support


Trading recommendations:


The corrective cycle in wave Y brown has not been completed yet as there is one more wave missing to the downside. The Traders should consider opening only buy orders from the current price levels with SL below the level of 1.1558 and TP at the level of 1.1672 with a possible extension upside to the level of 1.1733.


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 24, 2014

General overview for 24/12/2014 08:10 CET


The golden trend line is still being respected by the market. After making an intraday double (or even triple) top formation, the price has fallen just to slightly bounce from the dynamic trend line support. The daily range is getting very tight right now, the price is consolidating just above the weekly pivot and the market is almost ready for the Christmas break and liquidity dries up. Nevertheless, there are some first indications that the current wave development is trying to break out to the upside, but first, the important resistance at the level of 147.11 must be violated in a clear, impulsive fashion.


Support/Resistance:


149.77 - Swing High


149.63 - WR2


148.23 - Bullish Zone Level


147.74 - WR1


147.11 - Intraday Resistance


146.34 - Weekly Pivot


145.70 - Technical Support


144.98 - Intraday Support


Trading recommendations:


As long as the golden trend line is not broken the bias is bullish and traders should consider opening buy orders only. Still the SL orders should be placed below the 146.34 level and TP orders should be placed at the level of 148.23. Please notice the liquidity is getting low and the market moves might get very sharp and sudden in either direction.


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Daily analysis of USDX for December 24, 2014

On the daily chart, the USDX remains strong in the current bullish momentum. So, this instrument is likely to reach the resistance level of 90.40 in the coming hours. For now, the USDX could begin to form a higher high pattern to attempt a breakout in that area and go up to the next target at 93.44 in the medium term.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 90.40 / 93.44


Dailychart's support levels: 88.63 / 87.35


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The USDX has been moving in a range above the support level of 90.01 in the last hours, but this instrument has not yet shown signs of making a change in the current trend. So, it is wise to think that the USDX should be kept strong in the bullish trend, at least in the short term. The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 90.26 / 90.50


H1 chart's support levels: 90.01 / 89.76


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 90.26, take profit is at 90.50, and stop loss is at 90.01.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 24, 2014

The GBP/USD pair has been making sharp declines in the last weeks of the year, because this pair has tried to make a breakout at the support level of 1.5506. For now, the odds are high that the GBP/USD pair will continue strengthening the bearish bias on the daily chart, although a possible rebound to the current levels is not ruled out.


Dailychart's resistance levels: 1.5642 / 1.5746


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5506 / 1.5407


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair is trying to form a bearish pattern below the resistance level of 1.5534. For now, movements in a range of this pair might suggest that GBP/USD is trying to continue the bearish trend for several days and this could be checked with a breakout at the level of 1.5501, which would open the way for the GBP/USD pair to fall to the level of 1.5460.


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5534 / 1.5590


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5501 / 1.5460


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Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5501, take profit is at 1.5460, and stop loss is at 1.5543.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 24, 2014

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When the European market opens, no economic news are expected today. However, the US will release some economic data such as the Crude Oil Inventories and Unemployment Claims. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:


Breakout BUY Level: 1.2245.


Strong Resistance:1.2238.


Original Resistance: 1.2226.


Inner Sell Area: 1.2214.


Target Inner Area: 1.2186.


Inner Buy Area: 1.2158.


Original Support: 1.2146.


Strong Support: 1.2134.


Breakout SELL Level: 1.2127.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 24, 2014

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In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data. However, the US will release some economic reports such as Crude Oil Inventories and Unemployment Claims. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


Resistance. 3: 120.98.


Resistance. 2: 120.74.


Resistance. 1: 120.51.


Support. 1: 120.21.


Support. 2: 119.98.


Support. 3: 119.74.


Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 24, 2014

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Overview :



  • As expected, the USD/CAD pair rebounded at the level of 1.1568 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels), and it showed signs of strength following the level of 1.1568. Additionally, the resistance has broken and turned to support at the same key level (1.1568). Equally important, the price set above the support two week ago. Consequently, the pair has already formed a strong support around the spot of 1.1575. Furthermore, the price is going to move between the levels 1.1570 and 1.1673. The double top will set at the point of 1.1673 in the H1 chart. Therefore, the USD/CAD pair started showing the signs of the bull market, so the market indicates the bullish opportunity at the level of 1.1568 with the first target of 1.1620, and continues towards the level of 1.1673 again. On the other hand, stop loss should always be taken into account, hence it will be profitable to set your stop loss at the 1.1533 level.


Intraday technical levels :


Date: 24/12/2014


Pair: USD/CAD



  • R3: 1.1725

  • R2: 1.1695

  • R1: 1.1657

  • PP: 1.1627

  • S1: 1.1589

  • S2: 1.1559

  • S3: 1.1521


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 24, 2014

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Overview :



  • The GBP/USD pair movement will be continued dropping directly from the level of 1.5635 (50% of Fibonacci retracement levels) in H1 chart. Moreover, this level was confirmed by the bullish market yesterday. Additionally, the price of the GBP/USD pair has been showing a downward trend at the same price which represents the weekly resistance 1 around the area of 1.5651. Therefore, the market will indicate the bearish opportunity at the level of 1.5651. Also, it should be noted that the weekly support became the resistance 1 on December 24, 2014. Accordingly, it will be a good sign to sell at 1.5635 (in the short term) with the first target of 1.5485 in order to form the double bottom and further to 15411 to test the weekly support 1 in H1 chart. Furthermore, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide with a new bottom, for that it is going to be a good place to take profit. On the other hand, the stop loss should be placed above the weekly pivot point 1.5654 at the price of 1.5682.


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Observations :



  • If the trend is buoyant, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: GBP is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

  • Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological levels of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.

  • Fibonacci is in a trading range; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy in the long term, you will surely lose your profit.

  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

  • As a rule, the market is highly volatile if the previous day had huge volatility.


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#USDX Technical analysis for December 24, 2014

The Dollar index remains very strong and in a clear uptrend. The bullish flag target of 91 will soon be achieved. The Dollar index continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Bulls continue to have the upper hand.


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Green line = short-term support


The Dollar index is in a fully bullish trend according to the Ichimoku indicators. Price is above the cloud and is making higher highs and higher lows. The short-term support at 88.60 is critical short-term support. My next target remains at 91.


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The weekly chart again remains bullish and confirms the strong up trend. The bullish flag target remains at 91. Weekly support is found at 87.65. Weekly resistance is found at 91. Breaking below 87.65 could signal the start of a new downward move that could bring the index towards 84-83. However, I do not believe in this scenario. I believe that the Dollar index can continue even higher than the target of 91.


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Gold Technical analysis for December 24, 2014

Gold price has back tested the broken neckline at $1,180 and I believe we should expect more selling pressures to push Gold price towards at least $1,130. Trend is bearish. Bears are in control as long as price is below $1,210-20.


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Red line = resistance


Gold price remains below the red downward sloping trend line resistance and below the Ichimoku cloud. Gold price has also broken the neckline support at $1,180, reached $1,170 and has successfully back tested the breakout level only to be rejected. Gold price is in a short-term downtrend as price is making lower lows and lower highs.


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Blue line = support


The weekly chart remains fully bearish and if this week closes below $1,193 we should expect the lows at $1,130 to be challenged. Holding above $1,193 could signal another bounce towards $1,240. However, this scenario has the least chances of success. I prefer to remain bearish as long as we trade below $1,210.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for December 24, 2014

EUR/USD: This pair has continued its downwards journey and it is has closed below the resistance line at 1.2200. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, which means that the price is likely to continue trending more downwards. The next target for bears is at the support line of 1.2150.


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USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument has been going upwards so far this week, trading above the support level at 0.9850. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56 and the Williams’ % Range has always sauntered around the overbought area. This means the price may continue going higher.


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GBP/USD: The market has become weak – just like its EUR/USD counterpart. The accumulation territory at 1.5550 is now being battered; which is a great effort by bears to breach this uncontrollable territory. It can be noted that bears made unsuccessful attempts in the past to reach this territory. This time around, they may succeed in breaching it to the downside.


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USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair has exceeded our target for this week. The price is now trading above the demand level at 120.50, going towards another supply level at 121.00. With the ongoing slow and steady movement in the market, the supply level would be breached to the upside.


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EUR/JPY: After a bullish attempt on Monday, this market has been trading sideways. However, the bias is already bullish and there could soon be a breakout to the upside. Should this happen, the price may start going towards the supply zone at 147.50, which may also be breached to the upside.


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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 23, 2014

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Overview:


The GBP/USD pair has been moving downward respecting the depicted bearish channel since mid-September when the ongoing channel was initiated.


The price zone of 1.5890-1.5870 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days. However, bears quickly managed to push lower.


Failure of the market to defend the price zone of 1.5890-1.5900 allowed bears to push towards the support level located around 1.5550 where recent congestion zone was established above.


Recently, the market failed to express bullish breakout above the price level of 1.5760 (upper limit of the daily bearish channel). Instead, extensive bearish breakout was applied against the price levels of 1.5540-1.5560 (this breakdown is being resumed today).


Note that DAILY fixation below the recent bottoms established around 1.5540-1.5560 renders the current consolidation range as a bearish flag pattern with potential projected target at 1.5310 (similar scenario to what happened back in October 2014).


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for December 23, 2014

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Two weeks ago, the GBP/USD pair found intraday DEMAND around 1.5550 where many lows were previously established back in November.


Moreover, previous multiple bottoms were established above 1.5550-1.5580, rendering it a prominent DEMAND zone.


The DAILY outlook looked quite bullish while bulls were defending the lower limit of the consolidation range around 1.5550 for many successive times.


However, a bearish breakout is being attempted today. The bears have already reached down to 1.5480. Daily closure should be watched for DAILY confirmation.


Now we expect to see a bearish flag pattern similar to what happened back in October. Projection target would be located around the price level of 1.5350.


gbpusd4h.jpg

A consolidation movement ranging between the price levels of 1.5770 and 1.5550 took place.


It represented the state of indecision on the market after such a long bearish rally that started off 1.7100 and 1.6500.


As anticipated, the bearish breakout below 1.5550 directly exposed lower targets. Potential projection target for this range breakout pattern should be located around 1.5330-1.5350.


On the other hand, intraday traders should wait for bullish pullback towards the recent SUPPLY zone located around 1.5600 for a low-risk SHORT position.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for December 23, 2014

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Bearish pressure was applied earlier around 1.2800-1.2840 where the depicted head and shoulders reversal pattern and the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel were established.


Recently, daily fixation below 1.2360 (the lower limit of the depicted broken congestion zone) extended the bearish targets towards the price level of 1.2250.


However, after bears could fixate below 1.2360, evident bullish recovery was expressed so that bulls could reach the price level of 1.2560 few days later.


This week, the price level of 1.2250 was subjected to extensive bearish pressure that originated off 1.2560 (the upper limit of the movement channel) leading to its breakdown that took place yesterday.


For intraday traders, the price level of 1.2150 remains a significant Fibonacci expansion level. Intraday DEMAND will probably be present at retesting.


Trade Recommendations :


As anticipated, risky traders could have benefited from the bearish breakout below 1.2250. This breakout exposes potential projection target roughly located around 1.2100.


Conservative traders should be looking for SHORT positions. Best low-risk entries may be taken around 1.2260 (the latest broken bottom).


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com