Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 01, 2018

USDJPYM30.png

All our targets which predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. USD/JPY is expected to continue an upward movement. The pair rebounded from the rising 20-period moving average after a pullback from 109.10. The relative strength index has just landed on its neutrality level at 50 and is turning up. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 108.95.

Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a further rise with targets at 109.75 and 110 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 109.10 with a target of 108.85.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 109.10, take profit at 109.75.

Resistance levels: 109.75, 110.10, and 110.50

Support levels: 108.85, 108.65, and 108.30.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 01, 2018

USDCHFM30.png

USD/CHF is under pressure and is capped by a falling trend line. The pair remains under pressure below its declining trend line. The relative strength index is also negative below its neutrality area at 50. The falling 50-period moving average acts as a resistance role, and should continue to push the prices lower.

To sum up, as long as 0.9345 is not surpassed, look for a new drop to 0.9250 and 0.9220 in extension.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9345, take profit at 0.9250.

Resistance levels: 0.9365, 0.9395, and 0.9430

Support levels: 0.9250, 0.9220, and 0.9200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 01, 2018

GBPJPYM30.png

GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair bounced off its key horizontal level at around 154.85, and it is also supported by its rising 50-period moving average. The process of higher highs and lows remains intact, which should confirm a positive outlook. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish above its neutrality area at 50.

To conclude, as long as 154.85 is not broken, it is likely toadvance to 156.40 and 157.00 in extension.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a Short position is recommended to be below 154.85 with the target at 154.40.

Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 154.85, Take profit at 156.40

Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 156.40, 157.00, and 157.55

Support levels: 154.40, 154.10, and 153.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 01, 2018

NZDUSDM30.png

NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair has clearly reversed down after the failure to break above its key resistance at 0.7420. The 20-period moving average is turning down, and also crossed below the 50-period one. The relative strength index is bearish below its neutrality area at 50.

Therefore, as long as 0.7380 is resistance, likely decline to 0.7320 and 0.7300 in extension.

The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Resistance levels: 0.7400, 0.7420, and 0.7450.

Support levels: 0.7320, 0.7300, and 0.7260.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 01/02/2018:

The Consumer Price Index data from Australia has disappointed market participants when the key figures were released at the level of 0.6% while market participants expected an increase to 0.7%. The biggest increase in inflation was noted in alcohol and tobacco subindex (from 3.5% to 7.2%), housing (from 0.3% to 3.4%) and health (from -0.6% to 4.0%).

The headline inflation gauge for Australia reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Aussie Dollar, where each Dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that are typically bought by metropolitan Australian households. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Australian Dollars to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. Another bunch of disappointing data from Australia (yesterday - CPI, today - building permits) scared holders of long positions and the AUD/USD is testing the support at the level of 0.8000. AUD is also going down the cross rates with NZD and CAD, because AUD / NZD and AUD / CAD have been popular recently to buy. Now for the top one in all three comes a CAD -the better than expected GDP from Canada yesterday and the optimistic completion of the 6th round of negotiations NAFTA gives reasons to buy.

analytics5a7312c3cdf45.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 01/02/2018

Is fed getting ready for another hike in March?

Based on generally positive information from the US economy, the Fed had the right to sound constructively on the subject of further interest rate increases and it did indeed. However, in general, the market participants did not learn anything new. The language regarding fiscal policy and inflation remained unchanged. Nothing was on the topic of Dollar value and high bond yields. A fragment with a positive assessment of economic activity has been added. At the end of his term, the president Janet Yellen wanted to leave the Fed on the way to further normalization of monetary policy, but at the same time leaving as much flexibility as possible for the taking over of Jerome Powell. As a result, market expectations for another interest rate hike in March did not change substantially and the probability valuation exceeds 90%. This helps the USD, although only in the sense that the Fed did not give an excuse for the sale of the sale after the fatal January. The general pessimism towards the USD (additional fueling optimism with respect to EUR) remains, although now the trade will be more thought-out and carefully examine the risk factors.

Let's now take a look at the UD Dollar Index technical picture. The Fed decision was highly anticipated, so the market reaction was muted and the level of 89.62 is still the technical resistance. Tomorrows NFP Payrolls labor market report might be more significant than previously thought - if the data will surprise positively, then there are quite a few short positions in USD, which may be intended for cover and this will act as a fuel to the rally higher.

analytics5a730425b8e6d.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for February 1, 2018

Bitcoin has broken below the $10,000 price area with a daily close. BTC is expected to push much lower towards $7,500 area in the coming days. The pressure of the bears in the market seems very consistent that is speculated as an effect of the introduction of bitcoin futures recently. As BTC is trading under pressure amid dismal news like Bans on Promotion in Facebook and recent regulation issues, market participants seemed to have lost faith in Bitcoin that is leading to less liquidity in the market due to Investment Diversification. As for the current scenario, the price is residing inside the support zone between $9,200 and $10,000 which is more likely to be broken below in the coming days. A daily close below $9,200 will lead the price much lower towards $7,500 price area in the future.

analytics5a73105b4c2b9.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for February 1, 2018

EUR/AUD has been impulsive with the bullish gains today which led the price to breach above the 1.55 resistance area. Today, AUD struggled with the partially worse economic reports which led EUR to gain impulsive momentum having mixed economic report results. Today, EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 55.2 from the previous figure of 55.8 which was expected to be at 55.7, Italian Manufacturing PMI showed an increase to 59.0 from the previous figure of 57.4 which was expected to be at 57.7, French Final Manufacturing PMI report showed a slight increase to 58.4 which was expected to be unchanged at 58.1, German Final Manufacturing PMI report showed a slight decrease to 61.1 which was expected to be unchanged at 61.2, and EUR Final Manufacturing PMI was published unchanged at 59.6. On the other hand, today, AUD AIG Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 58.7 from the previous figure of 56.2, Building Approvals report showed a significant decrease to -20.0% from the previous positive value of 12.6% which was expected to be at -7.9%, and Import Price showed an increase to 2.0% from the previous negative value of -1.6% which was expected to be at 1.5%. As of the current scenario, having a high impact economic report like Building Approvals results to negative on the AUD side, EUR gained momentum despite having mixed economic reports. This explains the weakness of AUD against EUR which is expected to continue further in the coming days until AUD comes with any strong high impact positive economic report or event to counter the bullish pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has already breached above the 1.55 price level which is currently expected to be proceed higher followed by a retest off the level with a daily candle in the coming days. Certain period of correction is expected before the price bounces higher towards the 1.5750 price area in the future. As the price remains above the 1.53 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.

analytics5a730de13a042.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for February 1, 2018

EUR/GBP has been volatile and corrective recently, residing inside the support of 0.87 to the 0.8750 area. Due to the recent mixed economic reports of both EUR and GBP, the market sentiment has been quite indecisive with the upcoming directional momentum in the pair and lower liquidity at the end of the first month of 2018. Today, EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 55.2 from the previous figure of 55.8 which was expected to be at 55.7, Italian Manufacturing PMI showed an increase to 59.0 from the previous figure of 57.4 which was expected to be at 57.7, French Final Manufacturing PMI report showed a slight increase to 58.4 which was expected to be unchanged at 58.1, German Final Manufacturing PMI report showed a slight decrease to 61.1 which was expected to be unchanged at 61.2, and EUR Final Manufacturing PMI was published unchanged at 59.6. Though the economic reports were quite mixed but it was quite sufficient to counter against GBP worse economic report result to gain momentum. Today, GBP Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 55.3 from the previous figure of 56.2 which was expected to increase to 56.5. The worse economic report of GBP results in a sudden change in the market sentiment which leads to bearish rejection after an impulsive bearish pressure formed recently. As of the current scenario, the further correction is expected to be observed in the pair until EUR or GBP come up with better economic reports to support the gains on either side of the market with impulsive and consistent momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite volatile and corrective above the support area from 0.87 to 0.8750. The price is squeezing downwards with respect to the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Downward sloping Trend Line which is expected to push the price lower after any bullish pressure reaches it in the process. If the price breaks below the 0.8700 support level with a daily close, impulsive bearish pressure is expected in this pair with the target towards 0.8400.

analytics5a7309871a38e.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for NZD/USD for February 1, 2018

analytics5a73013d4910a.png

Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated an upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.

A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry are still expected.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).

S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150, and 0.7090.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 1, 2018

analytics5a730124187bc.png

Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where the recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).

analytics5a73013393c04.png

Daily Outlook

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100, which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 confirms a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.

Otherwise, bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD analysis for February 01, 2018

analytics5a72f766bc987.png

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2478. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a potential head and shoulders pattern in creation, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a successful rejection of reistance at the price of 1.2450, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The first downward target is set at the price of 1.2390. Anyway, to confirm head and shoulders patterrn you need to watch for a breakout of the neckline at the price of 1.2380. If you see a breakout of the neckline, a downward target will be set at the price of 1.2300.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2463

R2: 1.2513

R3: 1.2550

Support levels:

S1: 1.2375

S2: 1.2337

S3: 1.2290

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 01, 2018

USDCHFH1.png

Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair is still moving in downwards from the level of 0.9377. The price of 0.9377 represents the first resistance on the H1 chart. The pair fell from the level of 0.9377 to the bottom around 0.9393. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9377 followed by 0.9432, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9289 and 0.9230. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9377 and 0.9230. Hence, we expect a range of 147 pips in the coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.6790, for that if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9377, the market will decline further to 0.9289. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9230 in order to test the second support (0.9230). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9432, then this scenario may become invalidated. Also, it should be noted that the stop loss should be placed above the area of 0.9432.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for February 01, 2018

analytics5a72f1db9be11.png

Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.4274. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of upper diagonal (resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearrish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward targets arre set at the prices of 1.4175 and 1.4125.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.4243

R2: 1.4295

R3: 1.4355

Support levels:

S1: 1.4132

S2: 1.4070

S3: 1.4020

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for February 01, 2018

analytics5a72ee9b4605a.png

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $9.480. Venezuela's oil-backed cryptocurrency, the petro, is a step closer to reality following the release of the official whitepaper. The eagerly anticipated document outlines the token model and crowdsale mechanism that will be used to launch the ethereum-based project in February. Having been officially signed off by president Nicols Maduro, the whitepaper is finally available for scrutiny and it doesn't disappoint. The technical picture looks bearish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30 time - frame, I found a broken symmetrical triangle (pennant) in the background. The short-term trend is bearish and my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $9.200 and at the price of $8.186.

Support/Resistance

$10.243 – Intraday resistance

$9.480 – Intraday support

$9.200 – Objective target 1

$8.190 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 01, 2018

NZDUSDH4.png

Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 0.7305 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7305 which represents the daily pivot point on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7305. So, buy above the level of 0.7305 with the first target at 0.7364 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 0.7364, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 0.7437. The level of 1.4250 is a good place to take profits today. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the level of 0.7305 (pivot), a further decline to 0.7202 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What did the Fed decide on January 31, 2013? FRS Commentary

What did the Fed decide on January 31, 2013? Fed commentary.

The Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve commented on its decision in maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the target range of 1.25% -1.50% and the current situation in the country.

Fed noted a significant increase in the economic activity a sustained improvement in the labor market situation due to the steady growth in jobs and the continuous low unemployment.

The Fed states that during the period between the commission meetings, family expenses and investment investments of business structures have increased significantly.

The Fed continues to assess long-term inflation expectations as stable. At the same time, the total inflation and basic inflation calculated on a 12-month basis, not taking into account energy and food prices, remain below two percent. The same impact on inflation compensatory from the markets in recent months has increased but continues to be implemented to a small extent.

According to the officials, the Fed seeks to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed still expects that further gradual regulation of monetary policy will contribute to the expansion of economic activity at a moderate pace and maintain a strong labor market. Annual inflation is expected to rise this year, which is expected to stabilize near the Fed's designated 2% target in the medium term. Short-term risks for the economic outlook look fairly balanced, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor inflation.

Taking into account the levels that were already achieved and expected parameters of the labor market and inflation. The Federal Reserve decided to keep the target interest rate range for federal funds at 1.25% -1.50%. The basic principles of monetary policy will remain flexible enough, thereby supporting the strengthening of the labor market and the steady return of inflation to a level of 2%.

In determining the timing and scope of future regulation of the target interest rate range for federal funds, the Fed will be guided by both achieved and expected progress in moving towards long-term goals of maximum employment and inflation at two percent. his approach will be based on a wide range of information, including parameters of labor market conditions, indicators of inflationary pressures and inflation expectations, as well as, financial and international events. The Fed will closely monitor the actual and expected inflation in processes relative to its symmetric target inflation rate. The Fed expects that economic conditions will evolve in a way that will ensure a further smooth progress in the interest rate for federal funds. It will likely remain for some time below the levels that are expected to prevail in the long term. However, the actual interest rate trajectory for federal funds will depend on economic trends in accordance with the incoming data.

The current fundamentals of monetary policy were adopted unanimously by 9 members of the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for February 1, 2018

EUR/USD: The movement on the EUR/USD pair is now flat – although in the context of an uptrend. Momentum would soon return to the market, and based on what the market is doing, bulls would be favored when volatility rises. The resistance lines at 1.2450, 1.2500 and 1.2550 might be reached before this week runs out.

1.png

USD/CHF: In the short-term, this pair is consolidating. Price is now below the resistance level at 0.9350, going towards the support level at 0.9300 (which would be breached to the downside as the market goes further south). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart, and long trades are not yet recommended.

2.png

GBP/USD: Here, the bullish journey has continued, and that put an end to the recent bearish threat. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and RSI period 14 is above the level 50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market – price would thus go further upwards. The next targets are the distribution territories at 1.4300 and 1.4350. Some fundamental figures are expected today, and they may have impact on the market.

3.png

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair is now trying to rally in the context of a downtrend. A movement below the demand level at 109.00 would result in emphasis on the bearish bias on the market, while a movement above the supply level at 110.50 would result in a bullish signal, and an end to the extant bullishness in the market.

4.png

EUR/JPY: Although the recent movement on the EUR/JPY pair has been quite choppy, a new short-term bullish signal has been generated. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56, and the RSI period 14 is above the level 50. All this means that there is bullishness in the market, which could help price reach the supply zones at 136.60 and 137.00.

5.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Markets awaiting for new ideas

Eurozone

The euro has been under pressure since the beginning of the week, because even the background of weak dollar published macroeconomic data looked unexpectedly weak.

The preliminary data on eurozone GDP in the fourth quarter reached 2.6%, slightly lower than the forecast of 2.7%. The entire package of economic activity indexes in January from the European Commission was unexpectedly in the red zone, although experts predicted a steady growth. Also, with a drop in data on consumer inflation in Germany, the negative area also left data on retail sales in December, that is, even traditional Christmas sales did not have any positive effect.

Accordingly, inflation data in the eurozone as a whole also turned out to be worse than in December. A decline to 1.3% against 1.4% and to 1.0% without taking into account energy and food prices. The stabilization of inflation in the second half of the year is now under threat.analytics5a72d918722c4.png

The euro reacted with the decrease, as any negative gives the ECB a delay with the completion of the incentive program. At the same time, long-term criteria are still in favor of the euro, the policy of weakening the dollar, taken by the Trump administration, will remain the dominant factor in the long run.

The movement before the publication of the employment report will be predominantly in the lateral range, the main support is 1.2323, while the pair above, the trend will remain ascending.

The United Kingdom

Unlike the euro area, the pound news was more positive.

The volume of consumer lending grew significantly in December, according to the Bank of England, while at the same time the number of approved applications for mortgages decreased. The latter parameter reflects the general slowdown in construction in the country before the threat of rising interest rates.

The consumer confidence index from Gfk unexpectedly rose in December from -13 to -9p, experts did not expect changes. The growth of the index reflects changes in the mood of the British, who expect improvement in their financial prospects in 2018. At the same time, the index is lower than a year ago (-5p), there is no good news about the increase in wages, and most likely, its positive impact will be short-lived.

analytics5a72d927bec98.png

The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, told in Davos that Brexit costs the UK economy 200 million pounds a week, after the announcement of the vote, the country has already lost 10 billion pounds of GDP. Speaking in Parliament, Carney noted that he sees signs of wage growth against the backdrop of growing demand for labor. Regarding inflation, Carney said that the fall of the pound in June 2016 will have an upward impact on inflation for several more years, but the positive effect of the fall of the currency has almost been completed.

Perhaps Carney with his speeches sought to reduce positive expectations and hinted that the reasons for yet another rate hike are still rather weak. He managed to do it badly. The pound still has a strong impetus for growth, which has not yet been worked out. Support is the recent low of 1.3977, but before the publication of the report on employment, trade in the lateral range is more likely.

Oil and ruble

After a slight correction, the March futures for Brent again approached the level of 69 dollars per barrel, the quotes are practically unaffected by the latest data from the USA, according to which the production volumes reached a maximum in 47 years, and the stocks of crude oil increased more than last week.

This week, the reporting of major oil companies will begin to be published, players will respond depending on how the dynamics of investments in the industry and profits change. So far, oil remains in the ascending channel, the probability of a return above $ 70 / bbl. regard as high.

The ruble is trading in a narrow range, demand for it remains stable, which is supported by good macroeconomic indicators and record demand for OFZ. Movement to 55 rubles / dollar looks priority.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for 01/02/2018

Facebook has updated its advertising policy by announcing that it prohibits advertisements using "deceptive promotional practices" that, according to the social media platform, include cryptocurrency and ICO advertising. "Misleading or deceptive advertising has no place on Facebook. We have created a new rule that prohibits advertising that promotes financial products and services, often associated with misleading or fraudulent promotional practices, such as binary options, ICOs and cryptocurrencies. We want people to continue to discover and learn about new products and services through Facebook ads without fear of fraud."- writes in the statement Rob Leatherna, director of management of Facebook products. Then we read:"We also understand that we may not catch any advertisement that should be removed under the new rules, and encourage our community to report content that violates our advertising policies. Users can submit any ads on Facebook by clicking in the upper right corner of the ad".

According to Facebook, this policy aims to improve the integrity and security and to prevent cheaters from enjoying the benefits of Facebook. It is worth noting, however, that beyond these arguments, there are additional limitations - for example, copied and pasted links to some cryptocurrency exchanges, they are automatically treated as spam and deleted by facebook bots.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price of Bitcoin is trading inside of a local horizontal consolidation zone between the levels of $9,300 - $10,000, but the momentum is still pointing out tot he downside, so the level of $9,151 might be tested soon. In a case of a downside breakout, the next technical support is seen at the level of $8,600.

analytics5a72d6ae95a95.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 01/02/2018

The US Dollar finds support from a slightly hawkish FOMC message, because the March interest rate hike remains in play. EUR/USD is stable at 1.24. The equity market revolves around reference levels. Oil remains high after yesterday's rebound.The stock market in Asia seems lost without an indicated direction on Wall Street. Nikkei 225 managed to increase by 1.7%, but in Shanghai, the main index falls by 1.1%.

On Thursday 1st of February, the event calendar is quite busy with important data releases. The PMI Manufacturing data from all over the Eurozone are the main event during the London session. During the US session, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Continuing Claims, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Productivity and Preliminary Unit Labor Costsdata will be released.

EUR/USD analysis for 01/02/2018:

A slightly hawkish FOMC message stopped the market in rush to sell USD, although the positive reaction was limited, because the Fed's flexibility in the pursuit of standardization was not a surprise. The statement has been interpreted in a hawkish way as well as the market participants expected Fed is on a good path to another interest rate hike in March.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair spent the greater part of the Asian session close to 1.2420 and only close to the start of trade in Europe, we attempted to deepen the drop at 1.2386. This level was acting as a support for the price and market bounced from this level, but no new high was made yet. The golden trend line is a dynamic resistance now and in order to rally higher, the market must break through it in impulsive fashion.

analytics5a72d4492e589.jpg

Market Snapshot: USD/JPY is bouncing higher

The price of USD./JPY has bounced from the technical support at the level of 108.43 and now is testing the local resistance at the level of 109.76. Ony a breakout higher towards the level of 109.84 will confirm the breakout and the strength of the market. Otherwise, the current development might be just another subwave of internal corrective developments.

analytics5a72d454134e8.jpg

Market Snapshot: Gap still not filled on SP500 index

The price of SPY (SP500 ETF) has gapped down after the local top at the level of 286.46 and made a local low at the level of 280.80. The gap zone between the levels of 283.26 - 284.47 is still not filled, so the next market move should be targeting this zone.

analytics5a72d46a41964.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for February 1, 2018

The Dollar index remains in a bearish trend. Price is bouncing today. Price remains above the recent low but below the short-term (4 hour) Kumo (cloud). As long as price is below 89.60-89.80 trend is bearish and bears are in control.

analytics5a72c6540141e.png

Black rectangle - short-term resistance

Red lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index is trading below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud) resistance inside a bearish channel. Support is at 89 and resistance at 89.30 first and 89.60 next. A break below 89 will increase the chances of seeing new lows in the Dollar index today or tomorrow.

analytics5a72c6bd6489d.png

Blue line - resistance trend line

Black line - long-term support

On a weekly basis, price remains above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Price bounced off that support level. Trend is bearish as price is well below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. First important weekly resistance is at 91.43. Price should bounce soon but so far we have no reversal confirmation. A break above 89.60 will be the first sign in favor of a bounce.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for February 1, 2018

Gold price made a new low and revisited its highs next after the FOMC. So far, it is trading in a range between $1,350-$1,330. A break out will give a big move towards $1,300-$1,280 or $1,400.

analytics5a72c44a5dade.png

Black rectangle - resistance

Green rectangle - support

Gold price is trading below the 4 hour Kumo. Bears have the upper hand now, as long as price is below $1,344. Above the short-term resistance of $1,347 we should see a move to $1,358 first and then maybe to $1,380-$1,400. Break below support we should see a move towards $1,300.

analytics5a72c4c4d455c.png

Magenta line - long-term resistance

Gold price remains below the long-term resistance and the daily tenkan-sen. A daily close above the tenkan-sen at $1,347 will open the way for new highs. Support is at $1,323. Breaking below it will push price towards the cloud support at $1,290.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold loses roots

Investors remembered the previous year with enthusiasm, when working with gold, a simple strategy was relevant: as the FOMC meeting was approaching, at which the federal funds rate was to be raised, it made sense to sell the XAU/USD. On the topic of monetary tightening, the precious metal, on the contrary, was redeemed on the background of the realization of the principle "sell on the rumor, buy on facts". Most likely, nostalgia for the good old days forced speculators to hold their horses on the eve of the Fed's January meeting.

Despite the fact that the futures market implies only a 5% chance of a tightening in monetary policy, previous speeches by FOMC members were "hawkish". In conditions of a strong labor market, the devaluation of the dollar, the rapid rally of Brent and WTI, and the growing yield on Treasury bonds, an indicator of inflationary expectations - even those who are "dovish" began to show less concern about sluggish inflation. PCE can easily accelerate, and in order to contain it, the Fed will have to raise rates, at least three times this year. The CME derivatives implied a 62% chance that this will happen.

If this happened in 2017 and was accompanied by the same rapid rise in the real yield of US Treasury bonds, then the quotes of XAU/USD would fall to $1200 per ounce. To the surprise of investors, gold, on the contrary, notches almost five-month highs, is ready to enter the operational space and reach the mark of $1400. According to the World Gold Council, the precious metal will be able to reconnect with the rates of the US debt market, but for this it will need to move to a new level of prices.

Dynamics of gold and real yield of US bonds

analytics5a71c53dc80db.png

Source: Financial Times.

What's the matter? Why do previous correlations not work? Perhaps, the cryptocurrencies are to blame, whose large-scale selling in January forced fans to look for other safe havens? In my opinion, the weak US dollar was the main driver of the impressive precious metal rally in 2018. In order to see this, it's enough to look at the value of gold in euros. Since July 2017, it has not changed at all.

Dynamics of gold, denominated in euros

analytics5a71c54aeb77b.png

Source: Bloomberg.

Is the "Greenback" so weak? The average level of growth of quarterly GDP was slightly less than 3% in April-December, its potential acceleration under the influence of the fiscal stimulus, the reduction of political risks, the monetary tightening of the Fed and attractive rates on US government debt says the opposite. The problem is probably not in the United States, but in other countries and regions where the central banks-competitors of the Federal Reserve gave rise to talk about normalization. If it does not, then gold will begin to lose ground against the backdrop of the dollar gradually returning to the game.

Technically, in order to continue the rally in the direction of $1390 per ounce, it is necessary to update the January peak. The nearest support is located near the $1335 mark.

Gold, daily chart

analytics5a71c55e19a88.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2018

USDJPYH4.png

Overview

The USD/JPY pair is fluctuating around 109.05 level. In case the pair remains below it, the negative pressure is likely to continue on the intraday and short-term basis. It is especially probably provided that the EMA50 keeps pushing the price downwards and protects further trading inside the bearish channel that is dislayed on the chart. Besides that stochastic is losing bullish momentum gradually. Therefore, the bearish trend will remain valid for today on condition of holding below 109.05. Please note that the main anticipated target is set at 107.28. The expected trading range for today is between 107.85 support and 109.40 resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2018

GBPJPYH4.png

Overview

The GBP/JPY pair made an intraday rebound to approach from the initial barrier at 154.80 level. Let me remind you that the stability of the price is generally below 50% Fibonacci correctional level at 156.00. This confirms the bearish correctional bias for the short term with targets from 151.50, reaching 150.00. Note that the price attempt to regain the bullish bias requires breaching 50% Fibonacci correctional level at 156.00. This move will open the way for hitting several positive targets, starting from 157.80 and reaching almost 160.00. The expected trading range for today is between 154.80 and 152.20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of Gold for January 31, 2018

GOLDH4.png

Overview

Gold price is hovering around the EMA50 now. The bearish scenario is still valid for today as long as the price remains stable below 1,353.00. Let me remind you that we need to break 1,335.40 to confirm a longer bearish wave towards 1,316.48 as the next station. We should note that breaching 1,353.00 will stop the suggested correctional bearish scenario and push the price to regain its main bullish track again. The expected trading range for today is between 1,325.00 support and 1,353.00 resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of Silver for January 31, 2018

SILVERH4.png

Overview

Silver price resumes its decline, trading near the minor bullish channel's support line which is displayed on the chart. The price needs to break the level of 16.95. It should be broken to confirm a further decline towards 16.56. Until now, the bearish trend scenario is still valid as long as 17.43 level remains intact. This outlook is supported by the negative signal that appears on stochastic. Please note that breaching 17.43 will stop the expected decline and push the price to hit upward targets from 18.30. The expected trading range for today is between 16.90 support and 17.25 resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com