Fundamental Analysis of USD.CAD for July 19, 2017

CAD continues to dominate USD since the Rate Hike decision by the Bank of Canada. USD is expected to be bearish further in the coming days. USD has been quite weak recently due to bad economic reports in several recent weeks. The BOC rate hike provided CAD with support. Today Canada's Manufacturing Sales report was published with a better than expected figure at 1.1% which was expected be at 0.9% and previously it was at 0.4%. On the USD side, today the Building Permits report showed a good growth to 1.25M from the previous value of 1.17M which was expected to be at 1.20M and Housing Starts also showed growth to 1.22M from the previous value of 1.12M which was expected to be at 1.16M. Moreover, today US Crude Oil Inventories report is also going to be published which is expected to show less deficit to -3.6M which previously was at -7.6M. To sum up, though some positive US economic reports were published today CAD is still dominating USD which signals further bearish momentum in this pair for the coming days. As traders share the sentiment of the next rate hike by the Bank of Canada, the bearish bias is expected to remain intact in the future.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has been in a non-volatile bearish trend and it is expected to continue downwards until the price falls towards 1.2450 support level in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2650 resistance level, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair and bearish bias is expected to be quite intact in nature as well.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 19, 2017

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective in nature residing inside the range between 128.50 and 129.70. Recently EUR could not provide positive economic reports to continue the bullish trend against JPY. ECB has been quite hawkish recently. EUR is expected to continue further with more bullish momentum in this pair but in the short and medium term some bearish pressures are expected due to few unchanged and mixed economic reports from the eurozone recently. Today EUR German 30-y Bond Auction report was published at 1.29|1.8 which previously was at 1.02|2.0. The economic report was not quite effective to push EUR up against JPY today due to its low-impact on the market. On the other hand, today Japan does not present any economic reports but tomorrow JPY Trade Balance report is due which is expected to decrease to 0.12T from previous value of 0.13T. The Bank of Japan Policy Rate decision will be published along the Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ Outlook report, so the key interest rate is expected to be unchanged at -0.10%. After the BOJ Press Conference on further monetary policy and interest rate decisions, the overall economic outlook of the country, inflation and future monetary policy will be discussed. A large number of high impact economic events are going to be held tomorrow on the JPY side which is expected to bring in higher volatility and uncertain spikes in the market. JPY is expected have an upper hand over EUR and gain some momentum after the JPY economic events tomorrow. As Japan's economic events are tentative tomorrow, this effect is expected to last until the daily close tomorrow.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing between the range of 128.50-129.70 area. As the price is currently showing some rejection of the bulls, the pair is expected to break below 128.50 and reach towards 125.80 support level in the coming days. As the dynamic level 20 EMA is quite away from the current price level, so mean reversion towards 20 EMA is expected in the coming days. As the price remains below 129.70 with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue for the short or medium term.

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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 19, 2017

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Daily Outlook

The NZD/USD pair has been trending up within the depicted bullish channel since January 2016.

In November 2016, early signs of bullish weakness were expressed on the chart when the pair failed to record a new high above 0.7400.

A bearish breakout of the lower limit of the channel took place in December 2016.

In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated in the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).

However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place in May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (SUPPLY ZONE in confluence with 61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL opportunity can be offered if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Currently, the NZD/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 0.7230 - 0.7310 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

Trade recommendations:

Risky traders can have a valid SELL entry at retesting of the price zone of 0.7310-0.7400. S/L should be placed above 0.7440.

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish closure below 0.7230 then 0.7150 (61.8% Fibo level) for a valid SELL position.

S/L should be placed above 0.7250 while T/P levels should be placed at 0.7050, 0.6970, and 0.6850.

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Gold Deceived Speculators

Moderately pigeon rhetoric Janet Yellen, disappointing statistics on US inflation and retail sales, which is the first time since 2010, China's GDP growth of 6.9% in the second quarter and the closure of short positions were the main factors of the gold futures rebound from support level at $ 1205 per ounce.

The key driver of the XAU / USD rally was the weakness of the US dollar.

An important factor in the XAU / USD rally was a change in the mood of major players.

The dynamics of speculative positions in gold

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Source: Bloomberg.

Subsequent events showed that speculators were mistaken. In an effort to correct an oversight, hedge funds began to return to the market and some of the recorded profits on short positions was supported by XAU / USD.

In the short term, the fate of gold will depend on the successes in passing the bill on budget reform through the US Congress and the content of the negotiation between Washington and Beijing over trade cooperation. Additionally, the new macroeconomic statistics on the US political risks, the risks of protectionism and the slowdown in global GDP, coupled with the state of the US economy's health are important drivers of change in the value of precious metals.

Technically XAU / USD quotations back to the neckline of the "head and shoulders" pattern. A break in the diagonal resistance increases the risk of continuation of the Northern Expedition directed to $1,265 and $ 1,280 per ounce. On the contrary, the rebound followed by a successful test of support at $1,228 will allow the "bears" to return the lead.

Gold Daily Chart

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GBP/USD analysis for July 19, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3025 According to the 30M time frame, I found that strong supply entered the market in the background. Today, I found no demand bars and up-thrust bars, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3005, 1.2990 and 1.2945.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3065

R2: 1.3080

R3: 1.3110

Support levels:

S1: 1.3025

S2: 1.3000

S3: 1.2985

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 19, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1525. According to the 30M time frame, I found that price has broken supply trendline, which is a sign that selling looks risky. The RSI indicator is looking oversold near the 30 level, which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1600.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1545

R2: 1.1565

R3: 1.1575

Support levels:

S1: 1.1512

S2: 1.1498

S3: 1.1480

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 19/07/2017

Global macro overview for 19/07/2017:

Trump's administration failure of the reform of the health care system in the US (Obamacare) maintains the weakness of the Dollar together with the recent hawkish European Central bank rhetoric and downbeat recent data from the US economy. American President is unlikely to fulfill any changes in the health system (Obamacare), pledged during the presidential campaign. The bill passed in the House of Representatives will not find a majority in the Senate after two members of the ruling party have withdrawn in recent days. The efforts of M. McConnell, who is the head of the republican majority in the Senate also failed to find support for the bill, replacing Obamacare with a two-year transitional period. President Trump, as he said, is disappointed with senators' approach towards his reform. His plan to change the existing legislation that generates enormous costs for the US budget is simple: "let the Obamacare fall" and then the Democrats who are blocking the pass will ask for its change anyway.

Trump's administration problems are negatively impacting the US Dollar, which is sliding down through multi-month lows. The nearest chance for US Dollar to rebound comes with tomorrow's European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference, but the economic and political pressures on the market will still be present in the background.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a fallout of the golden channel, the price hit the 50%Fibo retracement and bounced slightly. Nevertheless, the bulls do not look so strong despite the oversold market conditions. The next important technical resistance is seen at the level of 112.74 - 112. 92 any only a sustained breakout above this level will put the bulls back in control over this market.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/NZD for July 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

We continue to look for a break above minor resistance at 1.5899 that should provide upside acceleration towards 1.6236 and higher. Short-term support is now seen at 1.5613 and important support is seen at 1.5419, which must protect the downside.

Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 1.5510 with stop placed at 1.5410. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.5613 or upon a break above 1.5899 and use the same stop.

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Elliott Wave Ananlysis of EUR/JPY for July 19, 2017

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Wave summary:

We are still looking for a deeper correction in wave iv closer to 126.38 before the next rally higher in wave v will take over for a rally towards 133.46.

Short-term resistance is seen at 129.57 which ideally will be able to cap the upside for the decline towards 126.38.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 129.85 with stop placed at 129.70 and take-profit at 126.50.

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Trading plan 07/19/2017

Trading plan 07/19/2017

The overall picture: Trend against the dollar, but still waiting for the ECB on Thursday.

In the market, there is a shortage of important news. The main event is tomorrow, July 20, the ECB's decision on monetary policy. Markets are waiting for cautious statements from the ECB about the beginning of a turn to a balanced policy and the curtailment of liquidity injections. Actually, the strong growth of the EURUSD exchange rate recently is a "bookmark" for this movement of the ECB. At the same time, the ECB is extremely undesirable to see a sharp surge in yields and a new jump in the euro exchange rate as a result of its statements. On the other hand, postponing a decision can lead to an even more undesirable consequences in the future.

So, we are waiting for the decision of the ECB on Thursday.

At the same time, the euro was close to the maximum long-term of 2-years! Range is within the zone of 1.1615 - 1.1670. The entry points are not very attractive and the growth potential is small.

EUR / USD

Upward trend. Purchases from rollback. Rollback is possible up to 1.1440

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USD / CHF

The rate broke down an important support level of 0.9550. This is a strong signal for a downward movement.

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GBP / USD

Purchases from rollback up to 1.2900.

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USD / JPY

The yen strongly opposes the general movement against the dollar. Buying the USD / JPY rate still makes sense. If you want to play "for the dollar" dollar-yen rate, your choice, our opinion.

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P.S. Pay attention to the growth of AUD / USD. There is a great potential for continuation.

(This is a weekly chart!)

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 19, 2017

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 19, 2017

Global macro overview for 19/07/2017

Global macro overview for 19/07/2017:

The inflation data from the UK disappointed the global investors. The UK Consumer prices declined June to 0.0% compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase on the month and on a yearly basis it declined from 2.9% to 2.6% (this was also the first decline in the annual rate since October 2016). Moreover, the Core CPI declined as well from 2.6% to 2.4% and Retail Price Index declined from 0.4% to 0.2%. There was downward pressure on fuel prices for the month together with some price declines in some recreational and cultural goods. The largest upward impact on inflation, measured on a yearly basis, came from housing and household services.

The UK inflation trends will continue to have an important impact on the Bank of England policy expectations, but such a turn of events reduces the chances of a rate hike at the August policy meeting. After yesterday's data release, its valuation was at several percents yesterday at the end of the day. The BoE tolerance of inflation being above 2.0% is very limited as every sudden jump in inflationary pressures can trigger the second-round effects of increased inflation expectations which can eventually distort the medium-term expectations and put pressure on prices. Further interest rate hike expectations should diminish even among the hawkish members of BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

As noted many times, the recent disappointing data set from the UK economy and a big miss in inflation readings will put more pressure on the British Pound across the board.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. After the inflation data was released, the price retraced from the local high at the level of 1.3125 and move below the technical support with the low at the level of 1.3003. The overbought market conditions and visible bearish divergence support the downside bias.

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Brent Remembered the Summer

In the past few weeks, the oil market has clearly become dull, looking at the tug-of-war between OPEC and US oil producers. It needed a new driver to get out of a tired state, and news from the International Energy Agency and from China could stir "bulls" for Brent and WTI. China announced a 5.1% year on year decline in domestic production and a 14% rise in imports, while the IEA raised forecasts for global demand by 100,000 in 2017-2018 (1.4 million b/d). At the same time, the decline in US stocks, by 7.56 million barrels in the week ended July 7, has reminded investors of the summer which is the height of the driving season and strong domestic demand.

A moderate optimism prevailed in the market. Increasingly, there is talk claiming that the trading range of $40-50 per barrel is sustainable and that when approaching its lower border, "bulls" are actively buying. A number of companies believe that the worst is over, however, a V-shaped recovery still isn't expected. Prices are quite capable of staying in the bottom for a long time. Moreover, the shale mining of oil in the US in August will likely grow for the eighth straight month, reaching 5.585 million b/d, and Ecuador, which is involved in the OPEC deal, begins to put its personal interests above that of others. It is not enough for Libya and Nigeria, whose activities has forced the cartel to reduce the rate of fulfillment of obligation to lower production from 90-95% to 78% in June.

According to sources cited by Bloomberg who are familiar with the actual data, the production of oil in the 11-members bound by OPEC's output cut agreement in June increased from 29.69 to 29.89 million b/d. A clear "bearish" signal for the Brent and WTI, which is pressured by talks in St. Petersburg, during which the Monitoring Board will draw conclusions about the activities of individual members of the cartel.

"Bulls" are counting on a further decline in US stocks. According to the forecasts of Bloomberg experts, in the week ended June 14, the index will be at 3.6 million bpd, which will add to optimism on domestic demand. Speculators rely on this factor, as shown by the increase in net longs for WTI of 19% to 178,654 futures and options contracts, which is the fastest trend in the last 7 weeks. Net long positions in Brent at the end of the five-day period ended July 11 also increased, reaching 232,135.

The dynamics of speculative positions and oil prices

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Source: Bloomberg.

Support for oil comes from the weakening US dollar. The loss of investor confidence in Donald Trump, weak data on inflation and retail sales and falling likelihood of a hike in the federal funds rate in 2017 made the US currency a clear outsider. If not for this then oil would have it hard.

Technically, a breakthrough resistance at $49.3 per barrel will increase the risk of activating a reversed Gartley pattern with a target of 78.6%. It corresponds to the level of $52.4. To begin with, "bulls" need to succeed in levels of $50 and $51 per barrel.

Brent, daily chart

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Trading plan for 19/07/2017

Trading plan for 19/07/2017:

It was a calm night on financial markets. EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.1550, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3030 support. The strongest currency is still the Australian Dollar, which is supported not only by the optimistic views of monetary authorities on the economy but also by a rapid rally of iron ore prices. On Wall Street, another flat session came to an end, so the Asian stocks are not moving to new highs either. Only Hang Seng index goes up almost 1.0% today.

On Wednesday 19th of July, the event calendar is very light in important economic releases, only during the US session market participants will get familiar with Building Permits and Housing Starts data from the US and Manufacturing sales data from Canada.

EUR/USD analysis for 19/.07/2017:

After yesterday's worse than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and the whole Eurozone, the price of EUR/USD has started a corrective cycle. The ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany retreated from 18.6 points to 17.5 points and ZEW Current Situation data retreated from 88.0 points to 86.4 points. In the Eurozone Economic Sentiment has also decreased from 37.7 points to 35.6 points (retreat from 22-month highs seen the previous month). The good news is, that the ZEW Current Conditions index rose strongly to 28.7 points from 20.5 points previously with a significant increase in the number of respondents assessing conditions as good. This has been the strongest reading since January 2008. In conclusion, despite the pullback in ZEW figures, the economic confidence in the Eurozone growth outlook remains strong in the short term, especially with monetary policy still providing continuous support and a very firm reading for current expectations.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the h4 time frame. The market has made a new local high at the level of 1.1583 but currently is in the corrective cycle. The first target for this cycle is technical support at the level of 1.1489, but any breakout lower would directly expose the next technical support at the level of 1.1368. The overall market conditions are overbought in this time frame and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator. Better than expected data from the US house market might trigger another leg down in this pair.

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Market Snapshot: Crude Oil trades in a range

The price of Crude Oil has bounced from the technical support at the level of $45.85 but was capped below the level of $46.88, so no new high was made. Market participants might be waiting for Crude Oil Inventories data from the US that are scheduled for release today at 02:30 pm GMT. Another increase in stockpile above the expected number -3,600k barrels might push the price below the support at the level of $45.85 and target the next technical support at the level of $45.00.

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Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP retreats from the supply zone

After an impulsive rally towards the new local high at the level of 0.8898, the price of EUR/GBP reversed and fell below the supply zone between the levels of 0.8898 - 0.8861. The momentum oscillator is still above the fifty level, but it points to the downside. So if the support at the level of 0.8814 is breached, then the price is likely to fall even deeper towards the next technical support zone between the levels of 0.8754 - 0.8717.

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Technical analysis of USDX for July 19, 2017

The Dollar index reached our target of 94.70 and is bouncing. Is this the end of the decline? Is the Dollar index going to make a strong bounce?Technically it has all the necessary conditions to do so but trend remains bearish. There is no reversal sign yet.

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Red line - resistance

Blue line -support (broken) resistance now

The Dollar index reached the 100% extension of the rejection to lows move. Price is below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen making lower lows and lower highs. Trend remains bearish. Support is at 94.70 and next at 94.05. Resistance is at 94.90 and next at 95.25.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

On a daily basis, price is inside the bearish channel and below both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators. Trend is clearly bearish. The oscillators are in oversold territory and a bounce towards 97 is justified if not higher. Daily resistance is at 95.40-96.15. Breaking above these two levels could change short-term trend to bullish and push price towards 97-98.

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Technical analysis of gold for July 19, 2017

Gold price made new highs yesterday. Short-term trend is bullish. We could see a pullback towards $1,230 but overall I'm expecting a move towards $1,260 at least.

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Blue lines - bearish channel

Gold price is trading above the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Support is at $1,230. Resistance is at $1,250-60. Gold price could see $1,230 if $1,235 is broken. However the cloud support should stop the fall in any case. I believe an important low at $1,205 is in.

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Red line -wedge pattern

Gold daily chart shows price rising as expected but for now has stopped at the daily kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). $1,243 is daily resistance. Next Gold price should move towards $1,260 once this resistance is broken. Daily support is at $1,225 by the tenkan-sen (red line indicator).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for July 19, 2017

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When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released, such as German 30-y Bond Auction. The US will release the Economic Data, too, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1604.

Strong Resistance:1.1597.

Original Resistance: 1.1586.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1575.

Target Inner Area: 1.1548.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1521.

Original Support: 1.1510.

Strong Support: 1.1499.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1492.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for July 19, 2017

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In Asia, today Japan will not release any Economic Data, but the US will release some Economic Data, such as Crude Oil Inventories, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:

Resistance. 3: 112.64.

Resistance. 2: 112.42.

Resistance. 1: 112.22.

Support. 1: 111.93.

Support. 2: 111.71.

Support. 3: 111.49.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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EUR/USD testing resistance, remain bearish

The price has risen a lot since yesterday and is now testing strong resistance at 1.1583 (Fibonacci extension, swing high resistance, bearish price action, bearish divergence) and we expect to see a reaction off this level for a drop to at least 1.1491 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below 97% and also sees bearish divergence vs price signalling that a drop is impending.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are negatively correlated, meaning they move in opposite directions. It's good to see a drop on EUR/USD and a corresponding bounce in USD/CHF.

Sell below 1.1583. Stop loss is at 1.1617. Take profit is at 1.1491.

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USD/CHF testing major support, remain bullish for a corrective bounce

The price has dropped strongly after making the bearish channel exit. We prepare to buy above strong support at 0.9527 (Fibonacci extension, bullish price action, channel exit potential) for a push up to at least 0.9593 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above 3.6% where we expect a further bounce from.

Correlation analysis: EUR/USD and USD/CHF are negatively correlated, meaning they move in opposite directions. It's good to see a drop on EUR/USD and a corresponding bounce in USD/CHF.

Buy above 0.9527. Stop loss is at 0.9500. Take profit is at 0.9593.

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NZD/USD profit target reached, prepare to sell

The price has bounced up and reached our profit target perfectly. We prepare to sell below major resistance at 0.7367 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance, Elliott wave theory) for a drop from this level towards at least 0.7300 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (21,5,3) is dropping nicely from our 90% resistance and we expect a further drop from here.

Sell below 0.7367. Stop loss is at 0.7391. Take profit is at 0.7300.

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GBP/USD approaching major resistance, remain bearish

The price is approaching major resistance at 1.3170 (Fibonacci extension, long term swing high resistance) and we expect to see a reaction off that level for a drop to at least 1.2820 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance below 95% and we expect to see a drop from here.

Sell below 1.3170. Stop loss is at 1.3257. Take profit is at 1.2820.

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AUD/JPY testing strong resistance, remain bearish

The price is testing major resistance at 89.11 (Fibonacci extension, swing high resistance) and we expect to see a reaction off this level for a drop to at least 87.52 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (34,5,3) has started dropping from our 98% resistance nicely.

Sell below 89.11. Stop loss is at 87.52. Take profit is at 89.61.

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USD/JPY finally bouncing off support, time to start buying

The price has finally dropped to our buying level which is major support at 111.77 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory, horizontal overlap support) and we expect a bounce above this level for a push up to at least 114.32 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (34,5,3) is approaching major support at 1.2% which corresponds with the bounce we're expecting at price.

Buy above 111.77. Stop loss is at 110.88. Take profit is at 114.32.

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 19, 2017

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair fell from the level of 0.9665 to bottom at 0.9523 yesterday. Today, the USD/CHF pair has faced strong support at the level of 0.9523. So, the strong support has been already faced at the level of 0.9523 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again and form a double bottom. Hence, the USD/CHF pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9523; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.9523 and 0.9665. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 0.9665, while immediate resistance is found at 0.9590. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 0.9665 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 0.9665, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.9665. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 0.9746. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 0.9523 with the first target at the level of 1.9590 and continue towards the levels of 0.9665 and 0.9746. On the other hand, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.9590; the market will decline further to the level of 0.9453 (daily support 3).
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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 19, 2017

NZDUSDH1.png

Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7307. On the H1 chart. the level of 0.7307 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. So, major support is seen at the level of 0.7307. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.7307 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.7372. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.7372, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.7400 in order to test the daily resistance 1. However, it would also be sage to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 0.7287.
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Daily analysis of USDX for July 19, 2017

USDX extended the decline during Monday's session on Healthcare headlines that two Republicans rejected to vote for it. Currently, the index could be targeting the support zone of 94.16, where a break below that level should help to accelerate the downside towards 93.29. MACD indicator is turning neutral and we can expect some consolidation moves to happen.

USDXH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.85 / 95.57

H1 chart's support levels: 94.16 / 93.29

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 94.16, take profit is at 93.29 and stop loss is at 95.02.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for July 19, 2017

GBP/USD saw a strong decline from the resistance zone of 1.3106 and it looks like the pair could resume the bullish bias, as the 200 SMA at the H1 chart is very close to the current price. If that happens, it needs to break above 1.3106 in order to reach the 1.3238 level. MACD indicator is turning oversold, calling for that rebound to happen.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.3106 / 1.3238

H1 chart's support levels: 1.3026 / 1.2968

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, buy (long) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.3106, take profit is at 1.3238 and stop loss is at 1.2971.

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