EUR/NZD analysis for February 05, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.5376 in a high volume. Our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% around the price of 1.5800 was held successfully, and it made price start with bearish movement. Be careful when buying EUR/NZD at this stage since we may see more bearish movement before any larger bullish reaction. Our Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.5421 is on the test. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1.5420 in a high volume, we may see a possible testing of the level of 1.5180 (Fibonacci retracement 61.8%).


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.5623


R2: 1.5702


R3: 1.5829


Support levels:


S1: 1.5368


S2: 1.5289


S3: 1.5161


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage, but watch for potential buying opportunities after retracement (buy on the dips)




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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 05, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade with risks skewed higher. It is supported by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.57 versus 93.77 early Wednesday) on stronger than expected U.S. January ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 56.7 (versus forecast 56.1). At the same time, investors remained upbeat on the U.S. labour market conditions ahead of the Friday's non-farm payrolls report despite a fewer than expected 213,000 increase in ADP U.S. private sector jobs in January (versus forecast +240,000). The pair is also boosted by the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the SNB CHF-selling intervention. But the USD/CHF gains are tempered by the franc demand on the soft EUR/CHF and CAD/CHF crosses.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD and stochastics is in bullish mode; five-day moving average above 15-day moving average and is advancing, although instraday-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9160. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 0.9075. The pivot point stands at 0.9290. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9365 and the second target at 0.9435.


Resistance levels:
0.9365

0.9435

0.9465


Support levels:

0.9160

0.9075

0.8985


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 05, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is to trade with risks skewed lower. It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.57 versus 93.77 early Wednesday) on stronger than expected U.S. January ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 56.7 (versus forecast 56.1). At the same time, investors remained upbeat on the U.S. labour market conditions ahead of the Friday's non-farm payrolls report despite a fewer than expected 213,000 increase in the ADP U.S. private sector jobs in January (versus forecast +240,000). The pair is also weakened by the kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investor risk appetite. But the NZD/USD losses are tempered by the NZD-USD interest differential and the kiwi demand on soft AUD/NZD cross.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is bullish at oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7450 and the second target at 0.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7280. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7220. The pivot point is at 0.7325.


Resistance levels:

0.7450

0.75

0.7550



Support levels:


0.7280

0.7220

0.7175


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for Feburary 05, 2015

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Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the weaker euro sentiment after the European Central Bank said it would no longer accept Greek public securities as collateral for central bank loans. GBP/JPY is also weighed by the flows to the safe have yen amid negative risk sentiment and Japan's exports. But the GBP/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD and stochastics are in bullish mode, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways below falling 15-day moving average.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.178.95 and the second target at 179.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 177.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 176.70. The pivot point is at 177.50.


Resistance levels:

178.95

179.40

1780


Support levels:

177.20

176.70

176


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 5, 2015

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Overview :



  • Due to the previous events, the price of GBP/USD has been still trading between the levels of 1.5201 and 1.5268. The psychological level is at 1.5157 which represents the weekly pivot point today. It should be also noted that the market showed the signs of instability because the trend movement was controversial as it took place in the narrow sideways channel. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.5157 and further to the level of 1.5282 (it will act as a strong resistance for this week). However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.5282, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.5282. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.5280 level with the first target at 1.5230. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level of 1.5200, then to 1.5160 (the weekly pivot point). It should be noted that the weekly resistance 2 is at the level of 1.5280 . If you have sold below 1.5280, you have to place a stop loss at 1.5320.



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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 5, 2015

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Overview :



  • The price of the EUR/USD pair has been still moving between 1.1482 and 1.1314. The level of 1.1482 will indicate strong resistance. Moreover, the price will form a double top above this level around the point of 1.1533. Therefore, it will be quite profitable to sell at 1.1533/1.1482 again in the long term with the first target at 1.1435, then it will continue towards 1.1320. Also, it should be noted that a strong support has been placed at 1.1314 on the H1 chart.

  • On the other hand, if the price closes above the resistance (1.1533), the best location for placing a stop loss should be above 1.1560. In addition, please be aware that the trend has broken the weekly support 1 and resistance 1 this week, for that it calls for a bearish market. It is equally important that the RSI and the Moving Average (50) are still calling for a downtrend.



Intraday technical levels :

Date: 5/02/2015

Pair: EUR/USD



  • R3: 1.1628

  • R2: 1.1556

  • R1: 1.1447

  • PP: 1.1375

  • S1: 1.1266

  • S2: 1.1194

  • S3: 1.1085



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#USDX technical analysis for February 5, 2015

The Dollar index has made an upward bounce after making a new lower low, but the bounce has stopped at sthe hort-term important resistance trend line at 94.50. There are increased chances that the dollar weakness will continue and we will probably see a new lower low now that the resistance is confirmed and price was rejected.


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Green line = resistance


The Dollar index, as shown on the 4 hour chart above, is making lower lows and lower highs. Price is below the trend line resistance and inside the Ichimoku cloud. None of these two characteristics is bullish. One is bearish and one is neutral. So bulls should be very cautious as this implies that we could be heading for another new low if support at 93.50 fails.


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Blue lines = upward sloping channel


The Dollar index remains in a strong uptrend channel. The price is also above the Ichimoku cloud and below the tenkan-sen. This is a bearish signal that implies we could be heading towards the yellow kijun-sen at 92.60. The short-term trend is bearish and we could be heading towards the lower channel boundary to complete the downward correction.




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Gold technical analysis for February 5, 2015

Gold price continues to move sideways above the important short-term support of $1,250 and below the resistance at $1,280. Trend is neutral and traders should be patient in order to wait for a clear signal before they trade.


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Black line = resistance


Green line = resistance


Gold price is below the Ichimoku cloud. This is a bearish sign. However, it is also held above the short-term support at $1,250. If this support is broken, expect gold price to fall towards $1,220 at least. Resistance is at $1,280 right now by the Ichimoku cloud and the black trend line, if it is broken, that will imply that we are starting a new upward move with $1,330 as target.


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On the daily chart gold price is trading below the tenkan-sen and above the 38% retracement. Breaking below the 38% retracement will confirm we are heading towards at least the kijun-sen (yellow line) at $1,235 where the 50% retracement is found. The most probable target, if the 38% support fails, is the 61.8% retracement.




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Technical analysis and trading recommendations on GBP/USD for February 05, 2015

The cable closed with marginal gains at yesterday's session. The UK services PMI surged in January. The UK service sector started 2015 with a strong note. The index rose to 57.2 in January from a 17-month low in December which stands at 55.8. But on the other hand, the US dollar gained ground affected by the strong US economic data. Private sector employment increased by 213,000 jobs from December to January. The cable managed to breach above the descending trend line on the daily chart on an intraday basis, but was unable to close above it. Today, again the pair is facing resistance on the same descending trend line. The cable has a parallel resistance at 1.5270. Bulls can challenge, if the prices break above the trend line and close above it. We recommend fresh buying above 1.5270 with the targets at 1.5320 and 1.5400. On the down side, the pair has support at 1.5125, 20Dsma. The hourly support levels are set at 1.5165, 1.5150, and 1.5100. Risky trades can sell below 1.5165 with the targets at 1.5140, 1.5125, and 1.5100. The panic will be triggered below 1.5100. Today, the focus has shifted to the Bank of England monetary policy statement. We expect the BoE to hold its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%. On the US front, the unemployment data is the key driving factor of this pair. Ahead of BOE monetary policy statement, the cable is trading in a negative bias.


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Forecast of EUR/USD for February 05, 2015

The ECB added pressure on the Greek government at yesterday's meeting. The ECB decided to lift the waiver affecting marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic. It is withdrawing a key borrowing option for the countries' banks. At yesterday's session, the pair lost approx 140 pips. On the other hand, the US dollar gained ground by the strong US economic data. Private sector employment increased by 213,000 jobs from December to January. Today, the pair opened on a bearish note, but is trading above 1.1300. The prices are closed and trading below the hourly moving averages. On the h4-chart, the pair is trading next to the trend line. The pair has resistance at 1.1355, 1.1372, and 1.1400. We recommend fresh selling below 1.1280 with the targets at 1.1260, 1.1225, 1.1200, and 1.1185. We recommend fresh buying only above 1.1400. Today, the focus has shifted to the unemployment data in the US. The pair still favours every rise to sell. The weekly resistance exists at 1.1560. Until the price closes above it, the weekly trading pattern is framed between 1.1098 and 1.1560 levels. As of now, the monthly resistance exists at 1.2000 or 50Dsma. The short-term trend will chance only if the price closes above it, until then use every rise to sell.


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Technical Analysis of Gold for February 05, 2015

The metal took support from $1,255.00 and managed to close above 20Dsma. Today, at the early Asian session, the metal is trading in an upwards bias. The prices have been making lower highs formation. It has been moving in a symmetric triangle. The height of the triangle is $55.00. The 61.8 fib level $1,286 is acting as a key level to watch. Bulls can challenge $1,297.00, $1,303.00, and $1,307.00 if the prices close above 1286. On the down side, $1,249.50 is acting as a strong support level. We recommend strong selling only below it with the targets at $1,239.00 and $1,220.00. Ahead of the Chinese Lunar New year on February 19th, we can expect Chinese consumers will acquire gold. The focus has shifted to today's US unemployment data. After the US non-farm payroll had turned out to be below expectations, the metal climbed from lower levels.


Resistance: $1,286.00, $1,297.50, $1,303.00.


Support: $1,255.00, $1,249.50, $1,239.00.


Buying above $1286.00.


Selling below $1,266.00. GOLDH4_(6).png


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 05, 2015

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When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as French 10-y Bond Auction, Retail PMI, German Factory Orders m/m. Besides, the US will release several economic reports such as the Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.1382.

Strong Resistance:1.1375.

Original Resistance: 1.1364.

Inner Sell Area: 1.1353.

Target Inner Area: 1.1326.

Inner Buy Area: 1.1299.

Original Support: 1.1288.

Strong Support: 1.1277.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.1270.





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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 05, 2015

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In Asia, Japan will release the 30-y Bond Auction. Besides, the US will release several economic reports such as Natural Gas Storage, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, and Challenger Job Cuts y/y. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY pair will move with low volatility during the Asian session, but with low to medium volatility during the US session.


TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 117.96.

Resistance. 2: 117.73.

Resistance. 1: 117.50.

Support. 1: 117.22.

Support. 2: 116.99.

Support. 3: 116.76.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of USDX for February 05, 2015

The USDX performed a false breakout at the support level of 94.18. Currently, the instrument is trying to reach the resistance level of 95.45. That target is quite reachable, as the USDX formed a bearish divergence on oscillators like the RSI on the daily chart, the price action also proves it. Currently, the 200 SMA is still bullish.


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On the H1 chart, we can see that the USDX recovered from low levels next to the 93.00 psycological zone. Now, the instrument is making a strong bullish momentum above the 200 SMA and the support level of 94.38. Two pivot points on the dowside were formed in order to favor the bullish price action of the USDX from an intraday outlook.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 95.45 / 96.87


Dailychart's support levels: 94.18 / 93.02


H1 chart's resistance levels: 94.69 / 94.90


H1 chart's support levels: 94.38 / 93.94




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 94.69, take profit is at 94.90, and stop loss is at 94.48.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for February 05, 2015

Bulls continue pushing the GBP/USD pair up on the daily chart, because the pair reached the resistance level of 1.5247. The odds are very high in the way that the GBP/USD pair could perform a breakout at that level with a target placed on the upside road at 1.5491. Besides, the support zone of 1.5025 has concentrated strong bullish force last weeks.


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On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD pair got in touch with the resistance level of 1.5249, which is a new monthly high level. Now, the pair retraced below the level of 1.5211 to continue forming a bullish pattern. If the GBP/USD pair makes a breakout in that zone, it would be expected to reach the resistance level of 1.5249. At the moment, bulls are getting stronger, because the 200 SMA is pointing upwards.


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Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.5247 / 1.5491


Dailychart's support levels: 1.5025 / 1.4853


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.5211 / 1.5249


H1 chart's support levels: 1.5161 / 1.5110




Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place long (buy) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 1.5211, take profit is at 1.5249, and stop loss is at 1.5172.


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Daily analysis of major pairs for February 5, 2015

EUR/USD: This pair tested the resistance line at 1.1500, broke through it and later failed to close above it. The dip that occurred as a result is serious enough to be a danger to the current bullish possibility. A movement below the support line at 1.1250 would mean the end of the bullish possibility and the reversal of the recent bearish trend.


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USD/CHF: The movement on this currency trading instrument looks like that of an equilibrium market; whereas a closer look reveals that the movement is a slow and steady one in favor of bulls. As it is said earlier, occasional pullbacks in the market would be transitory and the price can move upwards by over 500 this month.


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GBP/USD: The Cable managed to touch the distribution territory at 1.5250 before going lower below the distribution territory at 1.5200. The near-term outlook on this market is still bullish and the accumulation territory at 1.5100 may defend the outlook. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they can have an impact on the markets.


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USD/JPY: This is not a favorable market to swing and position traders – at least for the time being. This market is currently favorable to scalpers and intraday traders, just because of short-term southward and northwards swings in the market. Both bullish and bearish runs are short-lived and occur alternatively.


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EUR/JPY: The best action to take here in the near-term is to follow the bear bias. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the level 14, denoting a ‘sell’ indication. Even if there would be a rally in the market, the price could first test the demand zone at 132.00.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 4, 2015

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Overview:


The USD/CAD pair established the previous consolidation zone between the price levels of 1.1560 and 1.1670. This price zone roughly corresponds to 61.8% prominent WEEKLY Fibonacci level. Bullish breakout above it allowed bulls to reach new highs around 1.2560.


The USD/CAD bulls has been defending the recent INTRADAY SUPPORT around 1.2300. Hence, a new bullish swing was established without further retesting of 1.1950.


The market looked overbought since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels. Hence, the current bearish correction was anticipated in the previous articles.


The nearest SUPPORT level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level).


DAILY closure below the price level of 1.2300 exposes the next DAILY SUPPORT around 1.2000 where the backside of the upper limit of the breached channel is located.


Trading recommendations:


Wait for DAILY closure below 1.2300 for shorting the pair. TP levels should be set at 1.2250 and 1.2170.


Stop Loss should be set as DAILY closure again above ENTRY levels (1.2300).


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