Daily analysis of Gold for December 27, 2016

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Overview

Gold price managed to breach the bearish channel's resistance that appears on the above chart, which supports the continuation of the bullish trend scenario efficiently in the upcoming period, opening the way to head toward our next main target at 1,172.68, but we notice that the EMA 50 forms good resistance at 1,137.00, which means that breaching this level will ease the mission to achieve the required rise. Therefore, our bullish trend expectations will remain valid in the upcoming period unless breaking 1,124.88 and holding below it, as breaking this level will push the price to suffer more losses that target the previously recorded low at 1,047.61 as a next main station. The expected trading range for today is between 1,124.88 support and 1,154.75 resistance.

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Daily analysis of Silver for December 27, 2016

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Overview

Silver price shows sideways trading within the sideways track that appears on chart, noticing that stochastic provides clear positive signals on the four hours' time frame, which forms positive motive that we are waiting to assist to push the price to breach 16.15 in the upcoming sessions, which will lead the price to touch our main waited target at 16.56. Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid in the upcoming sessions unless breaking 15.49 level and holding below it, noting that breaching 16.56 level will extend silver price gains to reach 17.43 direct. The expected trading range for today is between 15.60 support and 16.15 resistance.

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Global macro overview for 27/12/2016

Global macro overview for 27/12/2016:

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan and the newest CPI data, together with household spending, were released overnight. Japanese Household Spending and Tokyo Core CPI both missed their estimates as consumer data was soft. Household Spending declined 1.5%, marking a ninth straight decline, while the market participants had expected 0.2% increase from -0.4% decline a month ago.The Tokyo CPI (ex.fresh food) indicator came in at -0.6%, weaker than the estimate of -0.4%. Nevertheless, the National CPI index was better than anticipated. The number released was at the level of 0.5%, which was better than 0.1% a month ago. In conclusion, the Japanese economy continues to grapple with deflation, so the Bank of Japan inflation target of 2.0% will not be realized any time soon.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the daily time frame. After the impressive rally from 101 level, the bull are taking a break as the market stalled below the technical resistance at the level of 118.65. The bulls are still in control over this market, but a bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator indicated a possible correction toward the next techncial support at the level of 116.15.

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for December 27, 2016

General overview for 27/12/2016:

The corrective cycle in wave (iv) (green) continues as the last internal sub-wave unfolds. There is a very high chance that the triangle pattern is unfolding in this wave. The projected level for wave (iv) (green) to complete is the intraday support at the level of 1.3475 or weekly pivot support at the level of 1.3412. Please notice there is still one more wave to the upside missing - wave (v) (green). The projected target for this wave is at the level of 1.3588.

Support/Resistance:

1.3588 - Swing High

1.3557 - Intraday Resistance

1.3483 - Weekly Pivot

1.3475 - Intraday Support

1.3412 - WS1

1.3244 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Due to the fact that there is still one more wave to the upside missing, only buy orders should be placed шт this market. TP should be set above the level of 1.3588.

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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for December 27, 2016

General overview for 27/12/2016:

The corrective cycle in wave (4) (blue) continues as the last internal sub-wave unfolds. The projected level for wave e (green) to complete is the intraday support at the level of 122.19 or weekly pivot support at the level of 121.78. Please notice there is still one more wave to the upside missing.

Support/Resistance:

124.07 - WR1

123.20 - Intraday Resistance

122.50 - Weekly Pivot

122.19 - Intraday Support

121.78 - WS1

120.94 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Due to the fact that there is still one more wave to the upside missing, only buy orders should be placed in this market. TP should be set above the level of 124.08.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 27, 2016

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On August 18 signs of bullish recovery were manifested around the price level of 1.2830 which led to the current bullish breakout above 1.3000.

The USD/CAD pair was trapped between the price levels of 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) until a bullish breakout took place one month ago.

Note that the USD/CAD pair challenged the upper limit of the depicted channel around 1.3360-1.3400 which succeeded to apply enough bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, bearish engulfing weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week indicating strong resistance around 1.3550.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci Level) was achieved.

This allowed a further decline toward 1.3200 and 1.3080 (the lower limit of the depicted channel) where bullish rejection was expressed as anticipated.

The current bullish breakout above 1.3360 (50% Fibonacci level) will probably liberate a quick bullish movement toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel) where bearish rejection should be expected.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 27, 2016

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair opened below the daily pivot point (0.6905). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.6905 to the bottom around 0.6861. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6948 followed by 0.7002, while daily support 1 lies at 0.6830. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend. Therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.6948 - 0.6905. So it will be good to sell at 0.6948 - 0.6905 with the first target at the 0.6861 level which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.6830. The strong daily support is seen at the 0.6830 mark. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to trade between 0.6948 and 0.6830 in coming hours. The price area of 0.6948 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.6950 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.6948, then a stop loss should be placed at 0.7002
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 27, 2016

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Overview:

  • The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.0244. Yesterday, the pair rose from this level which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to a top around 1.0287. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.0244 followed by 1.0213, while daily resistance 1 lies at 1.0244. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trading between the levels of 1.0244 and 1.0312. Therefore, we expect a range of 68 pips (1.0244 - 1.0312). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.0287, which coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish market. The price is still above the moving average (100). Consequently, if the pair is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.0287, we will see it climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.0312 to test it. The market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.0312 in order to reach the second target at 1.0343 and test the double top. Don't forget about the stop-loss level: it should be set below the second support of 1.0213.
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Analysis of gold for December 27, 2016

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Recently, gold has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,150.45 in ultra-high volume. Using the market profile, I found today's point of control at the price of $1,137.35 on the 30M time frame. According to the 5M time frame, I found buying climax and trap upwards move, which are major sign of weakness. Be careful when buying gold at this stage despite the fact that it is trading above 21SMA. My advice is to watch for potential bearish opportunities due to massive climax in the background. Downward targets are set at the price of $1,140.22 and $1,137.35. Anyway, if the price continues to rise, gold may re-test high at the level of $1,150.00.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,135.65

R2: 1,136.15

R3: 1,136.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,134.25

S2: 1,133.20

S3: 1,132.80

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportuniuties due to massive buying climax in the background.

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Analysis of EUR/NZD for December 27, 2016

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Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.5140. Using the market profile, I found yesterday's point of control at 1.5115 on the 30M time frame. There is absorption volume in the background. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities on dips. Upward targets are set at the price of 1.5185 and 1.5230. Anyway, if the price go lower, EUR/NZD may re-test the level of 1.5100.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels

R1: 1.5160

R2: 1.5185

R3: 1.5225

Support levels:

S1: 1.5080

S2: 1.5050

S3: 1.5010

Trading recommendations for today: watch for buying opportunities.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 27 - 2016

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Wave summary:

No change in view here.

We are still looking for more correction in wave [ii] closer to 1.4964 before the next impulse rally set in for a move towards 1.5836 and above.

In the short term, we should allow for more sideways trading before the possible corrective decline closer to 1.4964. However, a direct rally above 1.5235 will indicate continuation higher towards 1.5836.

Trading recommendation:

We are looking for a buying opportunity at 1.4925 or upon a direct break above 1.5235.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 27 - 2016

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Wave summary:

No change in view here.

We continue to look for a final decline closer to 119.69 to complete the correction in wave (iv) and set the stage for a new impulse rally in wave (v) higher to 126.54.

The alternate wave (iv) count shows that a running triangle is developing and if this is the case, then support at 121.70 will hold firm for a break above 122.78 and more importantly above resistance at 123.20 indicating that wave (v) towards 126.54 is already unfolding.

Trading recommendation:

We are short EUR from 122.41 with stop+reverse placed at 122.85. Take profit + reverse of the short position is set at 120.25.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 27, 2016

NZD/USD is under pressure. The pair remains bearish below its horizontal resistance at 0.6910. Meanwhile, the descending 50-period moving average also plays a resistance role, and should limit the upside attempts. Furthermore, the relative strength index is below its neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as 0.6910 holds on the upside, the pair is likely to drop to 0.6855 at first. In case of a breakout, look for further decline to 0.6840 as possible.

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6855. A break below this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.6840. The pivot point stands at 0.6910. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to go further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 0.6925 and the second one at 0.6945.

Resistance levels: 06925, 0.6945, 0.6965

Support levels: 0.6855, 0.6840, 0.6810

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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 27, 2016

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GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair has been capped by both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while the relative strength index stays below 50.The pair holds below 144.50 and remains capped by a negative trend line. Meanwhile, the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. As long as 144.50 is not broken above, a break below 143.20 is likely.

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 143.20 and the second one at 142.80. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 144.95 if the price moves below its pivot point. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 145.30. The pivot point lies at 144.50.

Resistance levels: 144.95, 145.30, 145.50

Support levels: 143.20, 142.80, 140.15

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for Dec 27, 2016

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While no economic news is expected during the European session, the US will release some reports such as Richmond manufacturing Index, CB consumer confidence index, and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. Therefore, amid the reports EUR/USD will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Breakout BUY Level: 1.0497.

Strong Resistance:1.0490.

Original Resistance: 1.0480.

Inner Sell Area: 1.0470.

Target Inner Area: 1.0445.

Inner Buy Area: 1.0420.

Original Support: 1.0410.

Strong Support: 1.0400.

Breakout SELL Level: 1.0393.

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for Dec 27, 2016

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In Asia, Japan will release reports on the housing starts y/y, BOJ core CPI y/y, unemployment rate, national core CPI y/y, Tokyo core CPI y/y, and household spending y/y. At the same time, the US will publish Richmond manufacturing index, CB consumer confidence index, as well as S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y. So there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during this day.

TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVELS:

Resistance. 3: 117.98.

Resistance. 2: 117.75.

Resistance. 1: 117.52.

Support. 1: 117.23.

Support. 2: 117.00.

Support. 3: 116.77

Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Daily analysis of major pairs for December 27, 2016

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD went down on Monday and Tuesday, and then began to move upwards slowly from Wednesday. Overall, the bias is bearish, which means that the current bullish attempt is an opportunity to go short at better prices. The support lines at 1.0400 and 1.0350 could still be reached.

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USD/CHF: The USD/CHF merely moved sideways on Monday – and the bias on the market remains bullish. The price action and the indicators in the 4-hour chart reveal that when momentum returns to the market, it would most probably favor the bulls. The targets for the week remain at the resistance levels at 1.0300 and 1.0350.

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GBP/USD: This pair came down 200 pips this week. Now below the distribution territory at 1.2300. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and the accumulation territories at 1.2250, 1.2200 and 1.1150 before the end of this month. Long trades are not recommended in this market at this period.

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USD/JPY: This market has become flat since last week and there is no directional movement in the near term. Right now, it is OK to stay away from the market because there are mixed signals in it – the EMAs 11 and 56 are giving a bullish indication while the RSI period 14 is giving a bearish indication. Soon, the indicators would begin to give signals in the same direction.

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EUR/JPY: There is a possibility of a bullish movement on the EUR/JPY cross. In spite of the recent flat movement, the overall outlook on the market is bullish, which would hold as long as price does not go below the demand zone at 120.50, which would require a strong bearish pressure anyway.

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NZD/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 27, 2016

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During August and September, a consolidation range was established from the price level of 0.7250 up to 0.7350.

Later on October 20, the lower limit of the consolidation range (0.7250) stood as a temporary resistance which initiated a bearish movement toward 0.7100 (lower limit of the depicted channel).

Bullish recovery was expressed around the price level of 0.7100 on October 28. Hence, a double-bottom pattern was seen on the chart.

Bullish fixation above 0.7250 and 0.7350 was needed to allow further advance toward the projected target of the reversal pattern around 0.7450.

However, significant signs of a bearish reversal were expressed around the upper limit of the price range (0.7350).

The bearish breakdown of 0.7250 (lower limit of the depicted range) enhanced the bearish side of the market toward the price level of 0.7100 (recent bottom of October 28) which was broken as well.

Bearish persistence below 0.7100 allowed a quick decline toward 0.6960 (BUY zone) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expected. All T/P levels were successfully achieved.

Once again, bearish persistence below the price level of 0.7100 was needed to pursue toward lower target levels around 0.7060 and 0.6990 (upper limit of the depicted BUY zone).

This week, the price level of 0.6990 failed to apply enough bullish pressure. Instead, bearish continuation was achieved toward the lower limit of the depicted BUY zone (0.6860).

The NZD/USD pair remains trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until breakout occurs in either directions.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 27, 2016

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The price zone between 1.3845 and 1.3550 (historical bottoms set in January 2009) was considered a significant demand zone to be watched for bullish recovery.

However, by the end of June a significant bearish break below 1.3550 was expressed as seen on the depicted charts (fundamental reasons). Bearish persistence below the demand level at 1.3550 enhanced the bearish scenario toward the price levels around 1.2700 (Bearish projection target).

Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been trapped inside the depicted consolidation range above 1.2700 until a bearish breakout took place on October 6.

Daily persistence below 1.2700 confirmed the bearish Flag pattern. That is why, a bearish projection target would be located around 1.2020.

Recently, bullish recovery was manifested around 1.2080. That is why, a bullish pullback was executed toward 1.2700-1.2750.

Risky traders could consider the recent bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2700-1.2750 for a valid SELL entry. S/L should be set as a daily candlestick closure above 1.2750. T/P levels should be located at 1.2300 and 1.2100.

This SELL entry should be monitored cautiously as the ascending bottoms around the price levels of 1.2120 and 1.2320 may apply significant bullish pressure against the supply zone of 1.2700-1.2750 thus threatening the suggested trade.

On the other hand, price action should be watched around the current price levels (1.2300-1.2260) where a previous top was recently established on October 19. Hence, bullish rejection should be anticipated around the current price levels.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 27, 2016

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In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 where historical bottoms were previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level. However, next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection around the area of 1.1400-1.1500.

Again in February 2016, the depicted price levels around 1.1400-1.1500 acted as a significant supply zone during the bullish pullback.

That is why, recent bearish rejection was expected around the depicted supply levels (note the monthly candlesticks of May, August, and October 2016).

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if the current monthly candlestick maintains its bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.

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The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish as the monthly chart illustrates. Bearish persistence below 1.0575 is needed to pursue this bearish scenario.

In September 2016, temporary bullish breakout above 1.1250 was expressed again, but evident bearish pressure was applied on the EUR/USD pair on September 16.

Closure below 1.1250 (supply level 1) maintained enough bearish pressure and enhanced the downside momentum toward the price level of 1.1000 (key level 1).

On November 9, an obvious bearish break of the 1.1000 price level occurred (Shooting Star daily candlestick). Moreover, further decline below 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was expressed.

Bearish persistence below 1.0825 allowed a further fall to occur at 1.0570 (demand level) where bullish rejection and a valid BUY entry were expressed on November 24.

The price level of 1.0825 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) constituted a recent supply level which offered a valid SELL entry on December 8. Stop Loss should be lowered to 1.0600 to secure some profits.

Bearish persistence below the depicted demand level around 1.0570 allows further bearish decline. The first bearish target would be located around 1.0220.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.0570 constitutes a recent supply level to be watched for SELL entries if a bullish pullback occurs above 1.0500.

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Daily analysis of USDX for December 27, 2016

The index is moving inside a sideways structure which remains well supported by the 200 SMA at H1 chart, as the bulls are waiting for further momentum in order to resume the trend, but ahead of New Year's eve, we cannot expect such volatile moves and the downside could be limited by the 102.56 demand zone, while to the upside, we're seeing a strong resistance around 103.98.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 103.98 / 104.69

H1 chart's support levels: 102.56 / 101.40

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place buy (long) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bullish candlestick; the resistance level is at 103.98, take profit is at 104.69 and stop loss is at 103.26.

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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for December 27, 2016

The pair remains in a very slow bearish consolidation above the support level of 1.2250, as the low volumes of trading will stay in the markets during this week, ahead of New Year's eve. There are no major catalysts around the corner and it's likely to do some bullish corrective moves, but the 200 SMA at H1 chart around 1.2390 will limit further gains in GBP/USD.

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H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.2318 / 1.2390

H1 chart's support levels: 1.2249 / 1.2185

Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.2249, take profit is at 1.2185 and stop loss is at 1.2312.

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