EUR/USD analysis for November 29, 2017

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Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1816. Anyway, according to the 15M time – frame, I found a fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1827, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the RSI oscillator and bullish outside bar, which is a sign that buyers came into the market. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1848 and at the price of 1.1881.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1896

R2: 1.1956

R3: 1.1997

Support levels:

S1: 1.1805

S2: 1.1770

S3: 1.1712

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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GBP/USD analysis for November 29, 2017

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Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3430. According to the 30M time – frame, I found testing of the previous day's high at the price of 1.3387 that is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found oversold conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of srength. I placed a Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I got FE 61.8% at the price of 1.3431 and FE 100% at the price of 1.3495.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.3411

R2: 1.3483

R3: 1.3578

Support levels:

S1: 1.3244

S2: 1.3150

S3: 1.3077

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Global macro overview for 29/11/2017

According to several recent forecasts, US economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to hold at or near the solid 3.3% pace thats been reported in Q2 and Q3. If the anticipation is accurate, US GDP growth could post its strongest and longest run of quarterly increases in over a decade. This projection marks a modest improvement over the solid 3.0% gain in Q3 and the 3.1% rise in Q2 (seasonally adjusted annual rates).

Nevertheless, other economists are not that much optimistic about the US GDP increase. According to the IHS Markit US businesses reported another month of solid growth in November, putting the economy on course for a reasonable, though by no means stellar, fourth quarter. Current PMI readings are broadly consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of just over 2.0%.

It is worth to notice that its still early for fourth quarter data as the first print of October data is nearly complete, but there are only a handful of preliminary estimates for Novembers profile and December is a complete unknown at this point. However, based on the published numbers to date, its fair to say that a disappointing Q4 GDP report at this stage looks unlikely.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the bounce from the technical support zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.06, the market keeps testing the nearest resistance at the level of 111.61.Nevertheless, the price still trades below the black trend line and the momentum indicator is barely above its fifty level. Breakout below the level of 110.61 opens the road towards the next support at the level of 109.84.

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Global macro overview for 29/11/2017

The UK newspaper Telegraph revelations regarding the negotiators from the EU and the UK reached a preliminary agreement on the so-called "Brexit Divorce Bill". According to the newspaper, the parties have agreed on the amount of the settlement that London must pay to Brussels - EUR 60 billion. Although the sum is closer to the upper limit of the range that has been speculated for some time, the agreement is positive for the GBP as it opens the way to a breakthrough in negotiations on other levels during the December talk phase. The Irish border and the rights of EU citizens are yet to come to an agreement, but it seems that the next EU summit will be able to satisfy most of the block states. Although so far the UK government has denied the press release, it may only be a PR act against the British public (before the government finds favor with the progress of the negotiations, which will balance the high cost of the agreement). Naturally, it can not be forgotten that the negotiation process will take a long time and certainly will be painful for the UK. But at least in the short term, the climate around the negotiations should be positive enough to give the Pound sufficient support.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market rallied after the news was published and the price has reached the 61% Fibo retracements of the previous swing down at the level of 1.3415. The zone between the levels of 1.3321 - 1.3338 will now act as a support for the price. Please notice a bearish divergence building between the price and momentum indicator.

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Bitcoin analysis for November 29, 2017

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The Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $10.922. With all eyes on bitcoin's meteoric break of $10,000, less attention has been paid to the price milestones recently established on leading international markets. In recent weeks, the CAD, AUD, NZD, and SGD pairings also surpassed $10,000, whilst a single bitcoin exceeds 500,000 RUB in Russia, 1 million JPY in Japan, 10 million KRW in South Korea, and 100 million INR in Indonesia. Technical picture looks bullish.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found an upward channel and the price respecting this channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also placed Fibonacci expansion to find a potential upward target. I found Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of $11.400.

Support/Resistance

$10.645 – Intraday support 1

$10.580 – Intraday support 2

$11.400 – Objective target

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 29, 2017

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The EUR/USD pair has dropped as discussed and expected earlier. Another probable scenario is discussed below as an alternate count. The rally from 1.1550 levels could be considered as wave 1 and hence a 3 wave corrective drop could be expected at least towards 1.1700 levels before turning higher again. Hence the trade setups should be taken as it unfolds, rather than holding it for long on the downside. Shorts were taken from 1.1950/60 levels earlier and one can consider short profits at current levels or around 1.1800 levels. Then again look to go short on intraday pullback rallies. Also, note that the Fibonacci 0.618 support of the entire rally between 1.1550 and 1.1960 is passing through 1.1700 levels as well. Trading strategies should be kept for short term 100-200 pips for now.

Trading plan:

Please exit short around current levels or around 1.1800. Then please wait for further plans.

US Dollar Index chart setups:

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Trade setups:

The US dollar index has hit its first interim resistance at 93.20/30 levels now, maybe one more push higher before it retraces lower again. We are sticking to our wave count for a bullish rally to continue for now but a bit cautiously. The index is expected to stay above 92.50 levels going forward. We had suggested longs from around 92.60 levels earlier and one can look to book short-term profits on that now. Please wait for a corrective drop towards 92.90 levels to initiate long positions again with risk around 91.00 levels. The bullish count, if holds to be true, the next upside target is around 94.20/30 levels if not higher. We shall remain a bit cautious towards 94.50 levels and take a stand from there. Resistance is at 94.20 and support is at 92.50 levels for now.

Trading plan:

Please look to book profits now and remain flat.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for USD GDP figures coming out at 0830 AM EST.

Good luck!

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The NZD/USD pair is still trading in the uptrend from the support levels of 0.6830 and 0.6880. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 0.6880, which coincides with a golden ratio (23.6% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 0.6880. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 0.6880. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (0.6880) with the first target at the level of 0.6993. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 0.6993. We should see the pair climbing towards the next resistance (0.7043) to test it. On the other hand, the stop loss should be set below the second support of 0.6833.
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 29, 2017

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Overview:

  • The pivot point is seen at the point of 0.9831 today. Last time, the USD/CHF pair fell from the level of 0.9870 towards 0.9800. Today, the pivot point of the USD/CHF pair is seen at the price of 0.9831. It should be noted that the currently price is seen at the daily pivot. Volatility is very high for that the USD/CHF pair is still moving between 0.9831 and 0.9783 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.9831 and 0.9870, which coincides with the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.9831. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.9831 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.9831, sell below 0.9831 with the first targets at 0.9783 and 0.9743. However, the stop loss should be set above the level of 0.9900.
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NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 29, 2017

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Daily Outlook

A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.

This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.

Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.

Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.

An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 provided that bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).

Otherwise, further bearish decline would be expected towards 0.6680.

Trade recommendations:

If the recent bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.

S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 29, 2017

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Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.

The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).

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Daily Outlook

In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.

As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).

The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.

If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).

Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

However, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hinders further bearish decline as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.

Trade Recommendations

The current price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if the current signs of bearish rejection are maintained.

S/L should be placed above 1.2030. T/P levels to be located at 1.1850, 1.1700 and 1.1590.

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Bitcoin analysis for 29/11/2017

Coinbase has announced that it has more user accounts than Charles Schwab. According to the Coinbase website, it has 13 million users, while the number of Schwab's brokerage accounts at the end of 2016 was 10.6 million. The number of Coinbase users has grown 167% this year. This still does not prove anything, because the amount of assets controlled by Schwab is certainly far above that of the Coinbase. Nevertheless, the actual number of users shows the popularity of a new form of investing. Coinbase openly publishes the number of active accounts on its website, and investors are proud to see them. Such an interest in the cryptocurrency exchange should put an end to the thought that Bitcoin is just a fascinating economic event.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The previous Fibonacci cluster which served as a projected target for wave (v) was violated, so the next Fibonacci cluster was found between the levels of $10,659 - $10,751. The current main Elliott wave scenario assumes, that the recent rally upwards is a so-called process of fifth wave extension of the fifth wave extension. This means the top for the wave 5 green must be found rather quickly now and should be followed by a sudden reversal in price. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $10,000 and $9,725.

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Trading plan for 29/11/2017

Asian markets were calmly tolerating the recent reports of North Korean ballistic launches. Indexes are slightly on the plus side, there is no sign of upward pressure on emerging markets. In the G10 basket, the best deal is a British Pound reinforced by information about the negotiators' agreement on Brexit. Gold is stable, crude oil is weaker after API report.

On Wednesday 29th of November, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. During the London session, the UK will release Net Lending to Individuals data Eurozone will post ECB Financial Stability Report data and Germany will reveal CPI preliminary data. During the US session, GDP Second Release data, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories data will be released. There are speeches from FOMC members Jannet Yellen and William Dudley scheduled as well.

EUR/USD analysis for 29/11/2017:

Yesterday's reports of the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea did not have much impact on the financial markets. The most interested South Korean won is actually today the strongest currency in emerging markets. The calm of the markets comes from the fact that ballistic tests were expected, and leakage on them came from Monday.

Speech of Jerome Powell, future Fed Chairperson, who at some point decided to take a slightly hawkish pose, did not shake the markets either. At the end of the day, his remarks on the need for policy normalization through a gradual raising of interest rates go away unnoticed. Investors have been trying to focus their attention on the index of US home market sentiment, which was at the 17-year highs and surprised market participants (129.5pts, consensus: 124.0pts). Such a clear rise of the rating was due to a better estimate of expectations, which shot to 113.3 pts versus 109.0 pts recorded at the end of October. The volatility of the American currency has clearly highlighted the withdrawal of some of the Democratic Party's representatives from meeting with US President Donald Trump. The reason was a controversial post on the Twitter portal, which according to the representatives, undermined the credibility of one of the negotiating parties.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market retraced 50% of the previous swing up and broke below the technical support at the level of 1.1856. Currently, this level is being tested from below, but the market conditions do not yet favor the upside. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1806 (61%Fibo). The key level to the downside is the technical support at the level of 1.1725.

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Market Snapshot: USD/CAD testing the upper channel line

The price of USD/CAD is testing the level of 1.2815 where the upper channel line is providing the dynamic resistance. Any breakout above this level would result in an immediate test of the recent swing high at the level of 1.2919, but so far the market conditions are getting overbought and a move back to the channel zone is expected before any rally occurs.

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Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP at the support

The price of EUR/GBP is testing the support at the level of 0.8817 and if this support is broken, then the test of the golden trend line around the level of 0.8783 is very likely. The current market conditions support the downward bias, but there is a bullish divergence starting to form as well.

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Trading plan 11/29/2017

Trading plan 11/29/2017

General picture: Many surprises. The pound showed growth.

There were a lot of news, mostly unexpected.

1. Positive for the pound: The EU and Britain settled an agreement on Brexit. The pound is growing, while the euro has declined due to sales of euro pound.

2. North Korea launched a new ballistic missile in the direction of Japan (at night). However, North Korea announced the completion of the creation of nuclear missile forces, which might be a signal for reconciliation.

3. Jerome Powell, the new head of the Fed and will be appointed on February 2018, said in the US Senate that "there is no point in overheating the economy" and added that "we will raise rates." Moreover, the single European currency fell.

4. On November 29, Bitcoin has reached almost 10,500 dollars this morning.

EUR / USD: Range. We go to the breakthrough of the borders to the top 1.1925 and 1.1960, down 1.1710

GBP / USD: Breakout to the top of the long range. Purchases from pullbacks.

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* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

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Ichimoku indicator analysis of USDX for November 29, 2017

The Dollar index remains inside the bearish channel and below the 4-hour Kumo (cloud). Trend remains bearish, however the bounce off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is an important sign that we should not ignore. Today's pullback is expected to be short lived.

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Black lines - bearish channel

The Dollar index bounced strongly yesterday and is now pulling back down. Support is at 92.93 and resistance at 93.40. I expect price to reverse to the upside and break above and out of the bearish channel and cloud resistance.

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On a weekly basis, the Dollar index is showing reversal signs. A weekly close above 93.30 will be a very bullish sign. A weekly close below 92.80 will maintain the bearish trend for next week as well. Price is showing reversal signs off the 61.8% Fibo and over the next few weeks I believe it is more probable to see price move towards the weekly Kumo.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ichimoku indicator analysis of gold for November 29, 2017

Gold price remains near the highs of the trading range it has been trapped in for the past few sessions. Trend remains bullish but with a weak momentum. Price is hovering above support levels and could continue higher towards $1,310. However I believe the downside for Gold is not over.

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Blue lines - bullish channel

Black line - trend line support

Gold price is in a bullish short-term trend. Support is at $1,290 and most important support is at $1,281. Resistance is at $1,300 and next at $1,310. I do not believe the upside in Gold has much more potential.

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On a daily basis, Gold price has entered the Ichimoku cloud. Price could now move towards the upper cloud boundary at $1,310. However, this cloud could also be seen as resistance. So any rejection and a break below $1,280 on a daily close will strengthen my bearish short-term view for $1,250. I remain longer-term bullish but I believe bulls will get a better chance to buy lower.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent: Russia is muddy with waters

He who rises high falls painfully. Oil is now at risk of plunging into a wave of sales after achieving more than two-year highs if the OPEC meeting does not give the market what it expects of it. Goldman Sachs warns that given the current prices, positions in the futures market and the existing spread of Brent-WTI has convinced almost 100% of investors that the Viennese agreement of the cartel will be prolonged, at least until the end of 2018. If the results of the meeting disappoint, the massive curtailment of speculative net-longs will carry black gold far to the south.

Another confirmation of the excessive calm of investors on the eve of November 30 is the fall of the implied volatility to 22%. This is the lowest since March and is not far from the three-year low. If the OPEC does not want to allow a quick return of the North Sea grade of $ 50 per barrel, then it is obliged to extend the contract to reduce production by 1.8 million bpd. However, not everything will depend on the cartel.

First, the risks of increased production in US companies have not disappeared. According to forecasts of the US Energy Information Administration, the indicator will grow by 720 thousand bpd and exceed the level of 10 million bpd next year. In addition, Canada and Brazil are actively developing. If strong demand is contributing to the reduction of global reserves this year, it is not guaranteed that the same situation will take place in 2018. Secondly, investors do not have confidence that Russia will be able to, as before, support the OPEC's desire to stabilize the market.

Dynamics of Brent and volumes of oil production

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Source: Bloomberg.

During the previous week, investors were agitated by information about the disagreement of the oil barons from Russia with the official position belonging to Moscow. Insiders from Reuters has allowed us to understand more deeply what is occurring. According to reliable sources, the production at the Sakhalin-1 project, a controlling stake which is in the hands of ExxonMobil, will increase by 200-250 thousand bpd in the first quarter of 2018. In order for the Russian Federation to continue to fulfill its obligations to reduce total production by 300 thousand bpd, it is required to implement a more serious reduction in production from other companies. They are already losing their market share so the displeasure of the oil barons is understandable.

Under the circumstances, Moscow can insist on a temporary postponement. For example, why not take a decision about the prolongation a little later? Perhaps in late March. The problem is that the market has already laid in the quotations of futures for Brent and WTI as the factor of extending the terms of the OPEC agreement and surely, this will arrange a large-scale sale. The question is not how far prices can go to the south. The question is whether they would arrange with Russia or not. The most likely scenario is that it will be satisfied with the previous trading range of $50-60 per barrel.

Technically, only the update of the November high is able to push Brent quotations to the target by 161.8% on the AB = CD pattern. On the contrary, prices falling below the support level of $ 60.75-61.15 per barrel will strengthen the correction risks in the direction of $ 59.5, $ 58.3, and below.

Brent, daily chart

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 28, 2017

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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair swiftly slid to the upside. Currently, it keeps trading on the upside while proceeding toward the immediate resistance at 111.70 . The 20-period moving average has just crossed above the 50-period one. And the relative strength index is trading above the neutrality area, indicating further upward momentum for the pair.

Above 111, expect a further upside toward 111.70.

Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 111.00 with a target at 111.70.

Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.

Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 111.00, Take Profit: 111.70

Resistance levels: 111.70, 111.95 and 112.30 Support Levels: 110.80, 110.55, 110.30

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