AUDUSD holding above long term ascending support!

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 0.69808

Reason for Entry: Ascending trendline support

Take Profit: 0.70043

Reason for Take Profit: Recent swing high

Stop Loss: 0.69736

Reason for Stop Loss: 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement

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USDJPY facing bearish pressure from resistance, potential for further drop

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Trading Recommendation

Entry: 107.404

Reason for Entry: 50% fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% fibonacci extension

Take Profit: 106.684

Reason for Take Profit: 76.4% fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support

Stop Loss: 107.736

Reason for Take Profit: Horizontal swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci extension

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on July 20 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Pressure on pound returns due to lack

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The problems for buyers of the British pound are just beginning. Friday's speech by the Bank of England governor kept the pressure on the British pound, and the technical picture that is now looming for the bulls can create serious problems. Buyers of GBP/USD urgently need to return to the level of 1.2571, since consolidating it will be a signal to open long positions and will lead to a break in the current bearish momentum, which has been formed since July 9. A false breakout in the support area of 1.2505 will also help keep the market on the side of the bulls, so in this scenario, I also advise opening long positions while expecting the high of 1.2618 and 1.2668 to be updated, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair falls below the support of 1.2505, it is best to wait until the low of 1.2446 has been updated or open long positions immediately for a rebound from the 1.2386 area. A special hearing of the UK Treasury will be held today, which may increase volatility in the British pound.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound will wait until a bearish formation from July 9 is completed, and the gradual pushing of the market and the inability of bulls to update the highs is an additional signal for forming a good bearish momentum. All that sellers need today is a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2505, which will increase pressure on the pair and lead to a larger sell-off of GBP/USD to the area of new lows of 1.2446 and 1.2386, where I recommend taking profits. Forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2571 will also be an additional signal to open short positions. If buyers break through this area, the short-term bearish momentum may be seriously affected. Therefore, it is best to count on short positions only after updating the high of 1.2618, or sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the larger resistance of 1.2668 based on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is just below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates continued pressure on the British pound.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the lower border of the indicator around 1.2525 will increase the pressure on the pair. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the area of 1.2580.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis and trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs on July 20, 2020

Trading recommendations for the EUR / USD pair on July 20.

EUR / USD

Analysis of transactions

The recent EU summit came out unsuccessful, but did not affect the exchange rate of the European currency, which many traders were so afraid of. The leaders failed to come into an agreement regarding the budget and approval of the assistance plan proposed by the European Commission, but if the aid plan was approved, the euro would have observed a good increase in the trading chart. In the meantime, no positive news is expected in the eurozone, so it is best to bet on a decline in the euro.

  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.1430. The target is the value of 1.1475, which may be reached after the publication of PPI in Germany and the balance sheet of the ECB today. Exit the market at a value of 1.1475.
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches the level of 1.1410. The target is the value of 1.1372, where it is best to exit the market, as many new buyers will be concentrated in this range. The lower border of the side channel also passes the level, in which the euro was trading within it in the second half of last week. Bad macroeconomic data on Germany will lead to increased pressure on the euro.

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Trading recommendations for the GBP / USD pair on July 20.

GBP / USD

Analysis of transactions

The British pound began to weaken amid the speech of Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey last Friday, which noted that the prospects for recovery of the UK economy after the coronavirus pandemic is rather poor. In addition, a trade agreement between the UK and the EU regarding Brexit still has not yet been settled, which puts pressure on the pound.

  • Buy positions when the quote reaches the level of 1.2539 (green line on the chart) in order to raise the price up to the level of 1.2573. A little below it is the trend line, which can limit the growth of the pair. Exit the market at the level of 1.2573.
  • Sell positions after the quote reaches the level of 1.2515 (red line on the chart), which coincides with the weekly support level. A breakout of it will lead to a fall in the pound to the level of 1.2462, where it is best to exit the market, as many new buyers will be concentrated in that range.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for July 20, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has been seen trading inside of the narrow consolidation zone located between the levels of 1.2482 - 1.2668 for all the last week and nothing has changed yet. The volatility has decreased and the momentum is hovering around the level of fifty, so no clues from this indicator either. Only a sustained breakout above or below certain level can provide a clue regarding the next market move.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2834

WR2 - 1.2735

WR1 - 1.2648

Weekly Pivot - 1.2555

WS1 - 1.2463

WS2 - 1.2373

WS3 - 1.2271

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the weekly time frame chart. The key long-term technical support has been recently violated (1.1983) and the new one is seen at the level of 1.1404. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518) or accelerate (1.1404). The market might have done a Double Top pattern at the level of 1.2645, so the price might move even lower in the longer-term.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for July 20, 2020

The pair initially traded downward on Friday then tested 1.2511 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line). However, it did not manage to break through this level, and then the price traded upward. The market closed 15 points above the opening of the daily candle. Today, the price is likely to move down. Nothing is expected for economic calendar news.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, a downward rollback is possible from the level of 1.2569 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) with the target at 1.2511 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dashed line). From this level, the downward movement may continue with the next target of 1.2461 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today the price may move down with the target of 1.2511 - a 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). From this level, the downward movement may continue with the next target of 1.2461 - a 50% pullback level (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario is a downward trend from the level of 1.2569 (closing of Friday's daily candle) with the first target at 1.2511 - a 38.2% pullback level (red dotted line). From this level, the trend may begin to move up with the target of 1.2599 - a 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for July 20, 2020

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

Today, a downward rollback is possible from the level of 1.1430 (closing of the Friday afternoon candle) with the target at 1.1386 - a 23.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, the downward movement may continue with the next target at 1.1345 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- Volumes - down;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- Weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

Today the price may roll back down with the target of 1.1386 - a 23.6% pullback level (blue dotted line). If this level is reached, the downward movement may continue with the next target at 1.1345 - a 38.2% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward trend after reaching 1.1411 - a 14.6% pullback level (blue dashed line) with the target at the upper fractal 1.1453.

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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on July 20 (analysis of yesterday's trade). Trading in the channel is saved. Bulls

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The EU leaders' summit was extended for another day, and it is likely to be fruitless again, as can be seen from the reaction of the EUR/USD pair, which remains in the side channel for the fourth consecutive trading day. There is also no new positive fundamental data that can push EUR/USD above weekly highs. Buyers can count on forming a false breakout around the middle of the 1.1412 channel today, since you can open long positions in this scenario and expect a breakout of the upper border of 1.1453. Consolidating above 1.1453 will form a new bullish momentum in the euro, capable of continuing the upward trend from June 30 this year, which will open a direct road to the highs of 1.1485 and 1.1514, where I recommend taking profits. If bulls are not active at the level of 1.1412, it is best to postpone long positions until the lower border of the side channel of 1.1371 is updated, since the optimism of euro buyers could decrease due to the failed EU summit. In case the rebound from the level of 1.1371 is weak, the market may completely move to the side of sellers, so it is best to count on new long positions after updating the low of 1.1307.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers need to return the pair to the level of 1.1412 today, which they missed last Friday on the expectation of positive results from the meeting of EU leaders. The main task of the bears for the first half of the day is to form a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1453, which may occur after the release of fundamental data on German producer prices. This will force speculative buyers of the euro to consolidate long positions, which, in turn, will lead to a downward correction to the area of the middle of the 1.1412 channel. Consolidating under this level will also play a fairly important role, as it will be an additional signal to open short positions in the expectation of a return to the support of 1.1371, where I recommend taking profits, since the main struggle for the pair's direction will unfold at the beginning of this week at this level. Consolidating below this range will increase pressure on the euro and lead to a break in the upward trend, which will be an additional signal to sell with the main goal of returning to the level of 1.1307, where I recommend taking profits. If bears are not active at the level of 1.1453, it is best not to rush to sell against the trend, but wait for the update of new highs in the area of 1.1485 and 1.1514, counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

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Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the probability of ending the bullish trend and locking the pair in the side channel.

Note: the period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.1412 will cause the euro to fall. Breaking the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1450 will strengthen the demand for the euro.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for July 20, 2020:

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair keeps trading close to the level of 1.1450 after making last pull-back very shallow. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1489 - 1.1497 and if the momentum will be still high and positive, then the odds for this scenario are high. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1406, but only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.1347 will change the short-term trend from up do down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1642

WR2 - 1.1541

WR1 - 1.1496

Weekly Pivot - 1.1397

WS1 - 1.1342

WS2 - 1.1243

WS3 - 1.1193

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair, the main long-term trend is down, but the local up trend continues. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.0336 and the key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.1540. Only if one of this levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.1540) or accelerate (1.0336).

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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for July 20, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

The Canadian regulator, the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC), accused the Coinsquare exchange of manipulating the market and misleading customers about the volume of trading.

OSC claims that Coinsquare, who was accused of "wash-trading" and hacking reports, "has engaged in conduct that goes against Ontario's security laws." The regulator also named its founders Virgile Rostand, CEO Cole Diamond and Compliance Director Felix Mazer as respondents. A meeting on this matter will be held on July 21.

In its complaint, the OSC said Diamond ordered Rostand to inflate it in March 2018. Then Rostand came up with a solution that allowed the stock exchange to start trading in the "wash" mode. "Wash-trading" refers to artificially inflating the volume of transactions by executing large market transactions on your own orders, so it appears that large transactions have taken place but no assets have changed hands. From July 17, 2018 to December 4, 2019, Coinsquare conducted approximately 840,000 transactions with a total value of approximately 590,000 BTC, OSC reported. They accounted for over 90% of the trading volume on the stock exchange.

Despite workers' concerns, Coinsquare continued its wash-trading business and thus manipulated the market and consumers, OSC said. The regulator asked for information on stock market activity, but Coinsquare did not report any irregularities and said it "is taking steps to prevent market manipulation and stressed that the controls it said could help detect such behavior." The OSC also said that Coinsquare was provided by an employee after expressing concerns about wash-trading.

Reddit users have become suspicious of Coinsquare's activity on two separate occasions. Vice also reported leaking documents that revealed diamonds were ordered.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair has been testing the short-term trend line resistance around the level of $240. Any violation of this trend line will open the road towards the next technical resistance seen at the level of $244.66. It is worth to notice, that this trend line has been tested twice already and all bullish attempts had failed. If the history repeats again, then the nearest technical support is seen at the level of $235.42 and $230.02. The neutral momentum indicator doe not support neither bulls nor bears for the moment.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $258.07

WR2 - $250.97

WR1 - $242.31

Weekly Pivot - $235.59

WS1 - $227.18

WS2 - $291.82

WS3 - $211.48

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Ethereum is now lower than usual, so all the dynamic moves up and down might reverse quickly. The larger time frame trend on Ethereum remains down and as long as the level of $288 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred. The next key technical support is seen at the level of $174.82.

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EU summit did not bring good news for the euro; Dollar will continue to decline (a local decline in the price of gold within

The week on the currency market ended traditionally for the US dollar. It continued to decline, which lasts four consecutive weeks according to the dynamics of the ICE dollar index.

This behavior is characterized by a not so unambiguous direct recovery of the world economy, but still stable. This applies not only to Europe and the United States, but also to Australia and New Zealand, which are still negatively affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Yes, of course, in the conditions of coronavirus pressure, the dollar was perceived – this was especially noticeable in the spring – as a safe haven asset along with traditional instruments such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, gold and government bonds of economically strong countries, primarily American ones.

But it should be admitted that over the past four weeks, the dollar has been steadily losing against a basket of major currencies. The reason for this was the publication of data on the American economy, which, despite the obvious second wave of COVID-19, shows a recovery. It can be noted that in the context of large-scale and unprecedented stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury in the process of economic recovery, which will continue in any case, faster or slower, the dollar will weaken more and more, since in this situation, it is its fundamental weakness that will outweigh all other local fears caused by the pandemic.

We believe that this trend will continue in the short-term, and a sharp decline in the dollar will begin with the invention of the vaccine against COVID-19 and confirmation of its effectiveness.

In addition, pressure on the "American" rate from the basket of major currencies was exerted by the euro, which received support not only against the background of broad stimulus measures from the ECB and hopes, but also that a decision on the EU Recovery Fund will be made this weekend, negotiations on which at first were stumped, and then in fact, they failed. This may have a negative impact on the euro rate and force it to correct downward in the coming week.

This week, the focus will remain on the topic of coronavirus, but the market will also closely follow the publication of economic statistics, primarily in America. If it continues to demonstrate generally positive dynamics, this will continue to exert pressure on the dollar rate. Undoubtedly, the Fed's meeting on monetary policy will not go unnoticed, which will begin on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, a regulator's report will be presented and a traditional presentation by J. Powell will take place at a press conference. Also on Thursday, GDP data for the second quarter will be released, which is expected to be extremely negative,but we believe that the market is already aware of this and will post the prices, so will continue with great interest to follow the values of the income and expenses of Americans last month to understand whether the recovery of demand in the country or not.

Forecast of the day:

The USD/JPY pair continues to trade in the range of 106.65-107.55 amid the continuing uncertainty of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The pair is likely to stay in the range further, only correcting to its lower border if it declines below the level of 107.25.

Gold is trading in the range of 1795.15-1812.40 after reaching a local high. We expect that it will continue to move in the range today, swaying in the wake of the uncertainty of the prospects of the post-pandemic world. We also believe that it will correct to the level of 1795.15 today, if it remains below the level of 1812.40.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for July 20, 2020:

Crypto Industry News:

Abra's CEO and founder, Bill Barhydt, said he views Bitcoin as a means of custody, increasingly distancing himself from mainstream market price correlation.

"Today, Bitcoin is best suited for storing value, which over time will be increasingly correlated with traditional investment markets," said Barhydt.

After Bitcoin's beginnings in 2009, assets have followed a dizzying path of price increases, going from less than $ 1 all the way to nearly $ 20,000 at a high in 2017. With this price journey, different views and use cases have emerged for this resource, says PlanBm creator of the stock-to-flow model.When Bitcoin reached $ 1, the narrative focused on using the coin as a transaction currency. As its price has risen steadily over the past decade, assets have become the focus of attention as a possible asset retention option. The assets also made their fair share of gold, often referred to as "digital gold".

"Bitcoin's nickname as" digital gold "is the best analogy I have seen so far, said Barhydt, referring to an earlier statement.

Bitcoin theoretically has no direct links to the major financial markets as it is away from government control. However, the asset showed seemingly correlated activity with traditional markets in points, while at other times it travels on its own price path.

"Bitcoin is a fantastic insurance policy against traditional markets, while governments run amok irresponsibly pushing their economies into the ground. It is also the best showcase ever created for global decentralization" Barhydt added at the end.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has been slowly moving higher towards the level of $9,148. The bulls have managed to break through this level and made a local high at the level of $9,201, but there was a Pin Bar candlestick formation made at the top of the move. It might indicate increased bearish activity around the level of $9,200, so traders should keep an eye on this level today. The momentum is now neutral, but the recent breakout through the trend line resistance might accelerate the rally towards the level of $9,240.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $9,569

WR2 - $9,411

WR1 - $9,271

Weekly Pivot - $9,117

WS1 - $8,968

WS2 - $8,812

WS3 - $8,862

Trading Recommendations:

The volatility on Bitcoin has been subdued for more than two months now, so the larger time frame trend remains down and as long as the level of $10,791 is not violated, all rallies will be treated as a counter-trend corrective moves. This is why the short positions are now more preferred until the level of $10,791 is clearly violated. The key mid-term technical support is located at the level of $7,897.

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/GBP for July 20, 2020

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The EUR/GBP pair did not dip to support at 0.9043 as it halted at 0.9088. It is likely to be heading for resistance at 0.9175. A break above here will clear the path for a quick rally to 0.9322 and the former peak at 0.9500.

Only an unexpected break below 0.9063 will open up for another decline to 0.9015 before the pair rises higher again.

R3: 0.9278

R2: 0.9225

R1: 0.9175

Pivot: 0.9135

S1: 0.9113

S2: 0.9093

S3: 0.9063

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 0.8646 and we will raise our stop to 0.9000

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for July 20, 2020

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The EUR/JPY pair did not decline to 121.81. It managed to rise again. If EUR/JPY breaks through resistance 122.50, it may grow to 124.43. Under this count minor support at 122.19 is likely to protect the downside or the pair may attempt to reach support at 121.81. It also may dip below this level before the next impulsive rally.

R3: 124.12

R2: 123.32

R1: 123.00

Pivot: 122.79

S1: 122.50

S2: 122.30

S3: 122.19

Trading recommendation:

We bought EUR at 122.51 and we have placed our stop at 121.75

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Trump and coronavirus: dollar made a weak attempt at corrective growth

The US currency showed a corrective growth at the start of trading: the dollar index rose from 95.933 to 96.13 points during the Asian session. The upward dynamics is uncertain, and is primarily due to the comments of US President Donald Trump. The head of the White house once again voiced optimistic rhetoric about the situation with the coronavirus, despite the fact that the United States recently reported another anti-record. However, the increase in the number of infected COVID-19 significantly decreased on Sunday, and this fact, together with Trump's comments, helped the greenback in suspending its fall and demonstrating a correction.

So, over the past week, or to be more precise, from July 14 to 18, a stable increase in the number of patients with coronavirus was recorded in the United States. If the daily increase was 59,000 cases on the 14th, then a new anti-record was registered on the 18th of July: 85,000 infected in 24 hours. But yesterday, the indicator fell by almost half – 45,000 patients were identified during the day. Here we can not talk about a change in the situation (45,000 daily growth is in still a high indicator), but the sharp decline relative to the previous days had a positive impact on the US currency.

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In addition, Trump made it clear that he does not intend to close the country to a strict quarantine. In an interview with Fox News, the US President said that the number of infected people in the country has increased only because the country began to conduct significantly more tests for COVID-19. At the same time, he assured journalists that the majority of infected people are young people who show only mild symptoms of the disease: "they only have a runny nose, they will soon recover." As for the death rate, here Trump refused to accept the data from Johns Hopkins University at all, saying that the death rate from coronavirus in the United States is "one of the lowest in the world", despite the fact that the total number of people who died from this disease exceeded 140,000. According to Trump, the statistics of Johns Hopkins University are not correct, since they include deaths from concomitant diseases.

Actually, Trump's argument is not so important in the context of the currency market. His words can be treated in different ways, but the essence of this does not change: the White House is not going to repeat the spring scenario, when the American economy was actually frozen. This is a key message that matters for dollar bulls.

Trump's position helped the dollar go into correction. But the corrective growth is clearly uncertain. In my opinion, investors do not trust Trump too much, who says black and white. And it's not just about trust or distrust: the main problem for dollar bulls is that the quarantine can be imposed locally. This is not a problem if it concerns one or two states, but at the moment there are outbreaks in many southern and western regions of the country. First of all, we are talking about the southern states, which for a long time delayed the introduction of restrictive measures and mandatory wearing of masks. The leaders of anti-rating are Florida, Texas and Arizona. The center of the epidemic in the United States at the moment is Florida, where almost 340,000 patients with COVID-19 and more than 5,000 deaths from this virus have been recorded. A curfew has already been imposed in some parts of Miami: people are forbidden to appear in the evening in the most popular tourist districts. According to local doctors, other major cities in the south of the country will have to resort to such measures.

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Such a contradictory fundamental background does not allow the US currency to demonstrate strong growth throughout the market. Most of the currency pairs were flat during the Asian session, despite the upward trend in the dollar index. Buyers of the USD/JPY pair showed the most activity, having risen from the bottom of the 107th figure by more than 50 points. However, this price spike was also within the wide-range flat. The pair has been trading within the 107th price level since June, only occasionally leaving the specified price niche. Therefore, in this case, when approaching the borders of the 108th figure, we can consider short positions to the bottom of the 107th figure. Uncertain positions of the US currency will not allow buyers of USD/JPY to develop an upward trend, which means that the pair will return to the lower border of the above price bands(106.90-107.00) in the mid-term.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on July 20, 2020

EUR/USD

Last Friday, the euro stayed at the target level of 1.1420 for another day, closing the day in a potentially reversal range of 1.1420/65. If the price goes above its upper limit, it will allow the price to grow even higher, to the target level of 1.1560. But with the euro's growth to 1.1560 at the moment, the single currency still has the risk of turning into a medium-and long-term downward movement based on the divergence of the Marlin oscillator. Moreover, this decline can be quite deep, up to 1.0460, to the March 2015 low, since the current growth is a correction for a long decline from February 2018 to March 2020, and the specified goal is 110% of the two-year downward trend branch.

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A strong sign of a price reversal from the current levels will be the price moving below the signal level of 1.1349 (June 23 high). If the growth continues (to 1.1560), this signal level will rise higher, to the level of 1.1420.

A consolidation under the MACD indicator line is the first sign of a reversal, below the 1.1370 mark on the four-hour chart. However, this mark is only 20 points away from the signal level on the daily chart.

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The development range of the Marlin oscillator, in previous reviews highlighted by a gray rectangle, eliminated short-term ones by going into the negative zone and returning to the growth zone. At the moment, the Marlin again rushes into the zone of negative values.

So, in the current situation, it is possible either to increase to 1.1560, or to pull down the price under the signal level of 1.1349 from the current levels, followed by a medium-term fall. We are waiting for developments.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on July 20, 2020

GBP/USD

The pound sterling found out its relationship with the Fibonacci level of 123.6% on the daily chart last Friday and today. The price is supported by the balance indicator line, respectively, this struggle occurs in the territory of a positive market trend. But since the Marlin oscillator is a leading indicator, it has already penetrated into the descending trend area. In this case, it is possible for the price to reach the first target level of 1.2424 at the Fibonacci level of 138.2% without breaking under the balance line, that is, the balance line will decline slightly faster than the price. If this happens, the price may turn up from this level. If the price reaches the goal with a break through the balance line, for which the price must do so in a downward momentum, then the downward movement will continue to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.2235. The intermediate target will be the MACD line on the level of 1.2345.

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The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned twice from the border of the growth territory on the four-hour chart. The price is below the balance line and the MACD line, below the Fibonacci level of 123.6%. we are waiting for the situation to develop under the main scenario - a decrease to 1.2424. The main scenario is canceled when the price goes above 1.2585.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on July 20, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar does not lose hope to form a rare triple divergence pattern on the Marlin oscillator. The price needs to overcome the June 10 high to do this, for example, taking the target level of 0.7080, which is the July 19, 2019 high. The Marlin signal line turned up on Friday from the border ofh the growth zone.

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But at the same time, the price began to turn down today in the Asian session. The signal line leaving the area under the zero line could be final and irrevocable, at least in the medium term. The price may fall to 0.6600 in this case.

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The price once again went under the MACD line after a preliminary reversal from the signal level of 0.7000 on the four-hour chart. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator attacks the border of the bears territory. Apparently, there will be no triple divergence on the daily timeframe. The price reverses to the nearest target of 0.6900, then to 0.6745. Leaving the price below the signal level of 0.6964 will resolve this issue in favor of the bears.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on July 20, 2020

USD/JPY

The yen has been in a range between the price channel line and the balance indicator line for the past five days. Uncertainty in the stock market is also transmitted to the "protective" yen. So today, Asian stock indexes are declining against the US market's growth from Friday. The reason for the discrepancy was the data on the Japanese trade balance for June – following its collapse of -838.2 billion yen back in May, the indicator showed -268.8 billion yen in June, while the forecast was at -35.8 billion yen. Moreover, the volume of exports showed -26.2% y/y against the forecast of -24.9%. Imports decreased by 14.4% y/y. The desire for the US stock market's growth has not strengthened at the moment – the S&P 500 rose by 0.28% while the Dow Jones lost -0.23% last Friday. The yen could stay in last week's range for another day.

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The growth targets are marked on the daily chart: 107.77, 108.35, 108.95. The goal for a decline is quite deep: 105.65 - support for the embedded line of the price channel.

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The price turns down from the MACD line for the fourth time. This is another sign that the first bullish target level of 107.77 may not be reached today. But if the price is pinned above 107.40, it will try to do so.

The situation is increasing more in the aggregate of the daily and four-hour charts. But it is advisable to open purchases above 107.77 with a growing US stock market, as well as to sell below 106.70 during a falling US stock market. The yen has clearly not been independent for the past week in the current situation.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair for July 20. COT report. Buyers slowly losing their positions. Situation

GBP/USD

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The GBP/USD currency pair, unlike the EUR/USD pair, continued to trade in different directions last week. Buyers have reached the resistance area of 1.2636-1.2660 four times and the pair rebounded each time, starting a new round of corrective movement. Therefore, for now we can conclude that the bulls clearly lack the strength and desire for the British currency's growth. However, as we mentioned in the fundamental articles on the pound, this currency could have already exhausted its growth potential, and it continues to fall in price against the dollar in the long term. Thus, the next round of upward movement can be completed. Moreover, a downward trend line was formed, which now supports the bears, who also still doubt the feasibility of active sales of the pair and can not overcome the strong Senkou Span B line.

GBP/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels continue to be directed downward on the 15-minute timeframe, which in principle corresponds to the general trend that has developed on the higher chart. The latest COT report showed minimal changes compared to the previous one. The British currency mainly continued to strengthen until July 14 (the final date of the report), so it is not surprising that non-commercial traders (professional players) continued to open 2,811 Buy-contracts. The "Non-commercial" category of traders only opened 182 contracts for sale (even less a week earlier). However, we can not say that the pound is rampant in price and must continue this process. Rather, even the bullish mood is slightly weakening, which can be seen both from the technical picture and from the behavior of the "commercial" category, which actively reduced Buy-contracts. Thus, the latest COT report makes it possible to complete the upward movement on the pound/dollar pair.

As for the fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair, it did not change much over the weekend. We have repeatedly said that the most likely reason for the pound's growth in recent weeks were several types of crisis in the US. In particular, it is epidemiological, which can have a very negative impact on the country's economy. So the coronavirus situation in the United States has not changed. Anti-records continue to be set for the number of new cases of the disease, some states continue to strengthen quarantine measures, and US President Donald Trump refuses to enter the country into a new lockdown, believing that this will bury the American economy. We must pay tribute to Trump. According to the latest information, he canceled rallies dedicated to his election campaign, and is going to hold telephone meetings and communicate with his voters. Well, whether Trump himself wanted it or not, this is clearly the right decision for a country where 70,000 new COVID-2019 diseases are registered every day. There is no news in the UK at all at the moment. Several extremely important reports were published last week, but traders ignored them, and in themselves reflected far from the best state of the economy. Market participants are still more interested in negotiations with Brussels and the prospects of signing a trade agreement.

There are two main scenarios as of July 20:

1) The outlook for the bulls continues to deteriorate. The pair's purchases are still not relevant at this time, since a downward trend line is already supporting the bears. Thus, you are advised to buy the pound, but not before overcoming this trend line with the first goal of the resistance area of 1.2636-1.2660, and with further goals of 1.2705 and 1.2791. Potential Take Profit in this case will be from 40 to 170 points.

2) Sellers are advised to consider short positions with the goals of the support area of 1.2404-1.2424 and the support level of 1.2375. However, you are advised to wait until the Senkou Span B line (1.2514) has been passed, from which the pair has rebounded several times. Sellers clearly have more prospects than the buyers now. The pound began to experience problems when trying to attempt growth. Potential Take Profit ranges from 60 to 110 points.

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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on July 20. COT report. EU summit did not bring any positive news to

EUR/USD

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The euro/dollar pair rose to the resistance level of 1.1432 for the third time on the hourly timeframe on July 17, and buyers stopped near this mark and were unable to continue moving up. Thus, the bulls remain dominant in the market, but their strength over the past week was not enough to overcome the level of 1.1440. Based on this, we expect new attempts to continue the upward movement in the new week. The ascending channel continues to signal an upward trend, so now you are advised to only consider purchases of the euro. All support and resistance levels will be updated on Monday.

EUR/USD 15M

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Both linear regression channels turned up again on the 15-minute timeframe, indicating an upward trend in the most short-term plan. Meanwhile, the next trading week has ended and we have a new COT report at our disposal. At the end of last week, we assumed that professional traders continued to buy the euro, which will be reflected in the new COT report. And so it turned out. The "non-commercial" category of traders (the most important) opened 9,648 new Buy contracts and a total of 3,719 sell contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the net position in the category of non-commercial traders has grown again and is now 195,890-83,766 = 112,124. There is a strong bullish interest in the euro currency. The last working days of the past week also ended with the euro's growth, so the new COT report, which will cover the time period until Tuesday, but will be released on Friday, may also show an increase in the number of Buy-contracts among non-commercial traders.

The fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair remained low on Friday. Some traders' hopes were linked on Thursday with the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech. However, they were disappointed. No important decisions were made by the ECB, and the head of the central bank only mentioned general phrases at the press conference. The euro continued to trade near local highs, if not more expensive, in the hope that the EU summit will bring positive news. However, during the weekend, it was announced that no decisions were reached at the summit. During the two days of the summit, all the disputed questions remained unanswered, the meeting was extended to Sunday, but until Monday morning we only know that German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave a comment: "I am still not sure whether any solution will be found. We may not achieve any results today." Therefore, the optimism of European buyers was clearly going to decrease. The prospects for the euro are not very bright. We expect the single currency to fall again if the EU member states fail to agree on the budget for 2021-2027 and on the recovery fund after the coronavirus pandemic. So far, there are no technical signals for this, but we recommend keeping your finger on the pulse of the market and reacting to what is happening. Important macroeconomic publications will not be released either in the United States or in the EU on Monday, July 20. We will still be waiting for information about the negotiations between the leaders of the 27 EU countries.

Based on all of the above, we have two trading ideas for July 20:

1) Buyers continue to dominate the market, as quotes remain above the Kijun-sen line and inside the ascending channel. But at the same time, they failed to overcome the level of 1.1440. Thus, purchases remain relevant with the goal of 1.1494, but now you need to wait until the previous two local highs are updated to open them. The potential Take Profit in this case is about 55 points. The second target is the level of 1.1494.

2) Bears have not managed to overcome the Kijun-sen line or exit the ascending channel over the past week. Sellers do not have enough power to form a new downward trend. Thus, we recommend selling the pair, but not before consolidating the price below the Kijun-sen line, and ideally - after below the ascending channel, with the goals of the Senkou Span B line (1.1278) and the support level of 1.1238. The potential Take Profit in this case is from 50 to 90 points.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the GBP/USD currency pair on July 20? Plan for opening and closing

Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair.

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With the GBP/USD currency pair, the situation has become a little clearer. We have put a new downward trend line on the chart, which now helps with determining the trend. As we can see, it is now descending. News from America and Britain no longer make traders buy the pound. The trend has changed, at least now we can draw this conclusion. This means that a pair can be sold near the trend line. It is ideal to do this in close proximity to the trend line or after a rebound from it. Last week's news from the UK mainly made it clear that the economy is recovering at a much slower pace than expected. This was signaled by the GDP report with a real value of only 1.8%. Plus, if there is no trade deal between Britain and the European Union, the country's economy may suffer even more, and investors will decrease, which will reduce demand for the pound. In America, however, the main concern is due to the epidemiological situation, as more than 77,000 new coronavirus diseases have been registered in the past 24 hours. Thus, the US dollar is now at risk, as the difficult situation with the epidemic will also affect the country's economy. Based on this, we would say that the dollar and the pound are now approximately equal, if you look only at the news and economic reports. Only the technical picture slightly simplifies the analysis and makes it clear that it is more likely that the quotes will fall now. At least as long as the price is below the trend line.

Technical analysis, as we have already found out, predicts a further decline in the quotes of the pound/dollar pair. Therefore, as a signal to sell, you can use a reversal of the pair near the downward trend line, a rebound from the trend line, or, for example, the output of the Stochastic indicator from the "above 80" area. But it is not recommended to buy a pair until the price is fixed at the end of the hour above the trend line. Based on these technical constructions, there are two possible scenarios:

1) Since we now have a downward trend line, we again recommend selling the pound with a target of about 70 points down. In other words, we place the Take Profit order near the level of 1.2479, which is the first target.

2) If the pair closes above the trend line at the end of the next hour (we assume that this may happen around the level of 1.2615), this will be a buy signal. In this case, we recommend buying a pair, and you can fix the profit around the level of 1.2664 manually, or by placing a Take Profit order.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading for a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on July 20? Plan for opening and closing

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.

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Friday, as well as the whole end of the past week, was quite difficult for trading. The problem was that traders were frankly nervous before an important event – the EU summit. In addition, on Thursday, the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank were summed up. And although no important changes were made to the monetary policy, the euro/dollar currency pair managed to fly up and fall down no less rapidly on this day. On Friday, traders again bought the euro, which provoked its strengthening. Buyers clearly expect that the EU countries will be able to agree on the budget for 2021-2027, as well as the recovery fund. Let's remind you why this is important for the euro currency and the currency market. Without the approval of all 27 EU countries, the budget will simply not be adopted, but this is not terrible, since the parties will have at least six months to agree on it. But the issue of the recovery fund, simply put, a project to raise 750 billion euros, which will be divided among the most affected EU countries,is extremely urgent. The longer countries wait for financial assistance from the EU, the longer the recovery will be. Business is a thing that can't be paused for a few months or six months. Therefore, in times of crisis, they need urgent cash injections, even in the form of loans, even in the form of gratuitous assistance, otherwise they will die. But this is exactly what problems arise, since some EU countries do not agree to distribute the accumulated amount as free aid, as the European Commission and the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, suggests doing. Thus, the euro may become cheaper at the beginning of the week.

Technical analysis for the third time in recent days suggests that the pair is preparing for a new fall. This time, the pair's quotes rose to the resistance line (red on the chart), which does not let the price go up. Thus, starting from this line, it is recommended to trade the pair today. On July 20, the following scenarios are possible:

1) We do not recommend to consider buying the euro currency yet, since the price can not be fixed above the resistance line of 1.1442. However, if buyers still manage to overcome it at the end of the next hour, we recommend opening purchases with the goal of 1.1500. The target range corresponds to the pair's volatility.

2) As the pair continues to trade below the level of 1.1442, sales are now more preferable with targets of 1.1371 and 1.1325. Moreover, we have a sales signal in the form of a rebound from 1.1442. On Monday, do not forget that the final results of the EU meeting will be known, so if there are any surprises, they should be taken into account when opening any deals.

Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.

Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading for a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com