Global macro overview for 12/03/2018

Important data on inflation in the US and the Eurozone will be released this week. Market consensus assumes that in February US core CPI inflation will stabilize at 1.8% y/y. In the second case, analysts expect the core inflation rate to remain above 1.0% y/y. Readings from the US will not change the attitude of the Federal Reserve on the gradual normalization of monetary policy. In turn, low core inflation in the Eurozone should confirm that the issue of interest rate hikes by the ECB remains distant. Before the next FOMC decision on the interest rates planned for next week, attention will be focused on publications from the American economy. This week we will get data on retail sales, industrial production and industrial activity indices together with the initial reading of the University of Michigan index.

During the last session of last week, data from the Canadian labor market were also published. Investors were waiting for this publication because in January the Bank of Canada decided to further increase the cost of money and thus to the third rate hike in the current cycle of monetary policy normalization. BoC also emphasized that subsequent decisions will depend on the condition of the economy, and in particular on incoming data from the labor market. Data for February are well in line with expectations for further monetary policy tightening in Canada in the longer term. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% from 5.9% on a yearly basis. After a strong fall in January, employment rose by 15.4k in February, which was mainly due to the increase in part-time jobs. In addition, data on labor productivity in the fourth quarter of 2017 were published, which increased compared to the previous quarter. In conclusion, there is a high chance that BoC will hike the interest rate again this month.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has tested the 61% Fibo and currently is reversing from this level. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.2760 and this is very close to the black trend line support as well. Any breakout below this trend line will directly expose the level of 1.2689 and 1.2598 for a test. The overbought trading conditions support this view.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Global macro overview for 12/03/2018

After a very active last week, global markets have time to calm down. Moods in the markets are good especially after US labor market data have given the perfect mix. A lack of a major data releases in today's calendar suggests that without political revelations traders will possibly count down the hours until tomorrow.

After Friday's data, we're smarter about two issues. First of all, the markets are not threatened with abandoning risky assets in a panic before tightening the Fed's policy. The February report from the US labor market brought the best scenario for the risk appetite: a strong increase in employment (313k vs. 205k expected) shows that the US economy is still growing. A slowdown in wage growth (to 2.6% y/y from 2.9% y/y) means that the Fed does not have a strong need to change the strategy of three interest rate hikes this year. The move at the meeting on March 20-21 is sealed, but the discussion is about whether Fed will be able to justify the fourth increase and how many of them will be next year? Admittedly, calmness may be broken by tomorrow's CPI reading from the US, but the second surprising spike in inflation (0.5% m/m in January) would probably be too much to reasonably bet on.

Secondly, the topic of "trade battles" begins to fade when Donald Trump himself softens his position. There is talk of a longer and longer list of countries excluded from new duties with already confirmed Australia. As they say in the USA, barking turned out to be more dangerous than a bite, although I would like notice, that other dogs can also bite. It seems certain that the US president is most interested in weakening imports from China and the EU, so now the global investors are waiting for their retaliation. This may be something that will again disturb the market peace.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market bounced from the level of 89.41 and now is trading back in the main channel, but still below the nearest technical resistance at the level of 90.37. Only a sustained breakout above this level would open the road towards the recent high at the level of 90.98. The momentum remains neutral but is still above its fifty level, so the bullish price action is still possible.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for March 12, 2018


Daily Outlook

In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.

As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).

Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.

The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.

That's why, a quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were expected.

On February 2, a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed off the price level of 0.7390. Moreover, a double-top reversal pattern was expressed around the price zone (0.7320-0.7390).

The price zone (0.7320-0.7390) remains a significant supply zone for the NZD/USD pair. Any bullish pullback towards this price zone should be considered for a valid SELL entry.

On the other hand, bearish breakdown of 0.7300 (neckline) is needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish projection target would be located around 0.7050 and 0.7000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 12, 2018


Monthly Outlook

In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100-1.2200 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.

However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2075 was expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750 provided that the bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2075 remains defended by the bulls.


Daily Outlook

In September, bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern was projected towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).

Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.

This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish momentum to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.

The EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the price levels of 1.2500 and 1.2200 until breakout occurs in either directions.

Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 was needed to confirm a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets around the price level of 1.2750.

However, significant signs of bearish reversal were manifested around the price levels of 1.2400 (backside of the depicted broken uptrend). This was manifested in the bearish engulfing daily candlestick of Wednesday.

On the other hand, the depicted double-top reversal pattern needs bearish breakdown of the level of 1.2200 (the depicted uptrend line) to be achieved on a daily basis. Projection target would be located around 1.2070-1.1990.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

A pound does not need a whip, but a carrot

The British pound is losing sensitivity to the news with a political tinge, as evidenced by its striking resistance to the negative. The GBP / USD pair has managed to register the narrowest trading range since February 2016, despite the statement of the chairman of the European Council Donald Trump. The negotiations will lead to a deadlock if Britain does not present the E.U. with a realistic solution of the issue on the Irish border. On Bloomberg, referring to competent sources who wished to remain anonymous, said that some government members believe that a trade deal could not be achieved until January 2019.

Weekly dynamics of GBP / USD pair


Source: Bloomberg.

At present, investors have lost the hope of getting at least some certainty to the outcome of the Brexit talks before the EU summit for the third decade in March. In such conditions, their attention may shift to short-term drivers of GBP / USD pair quotations. Against the backdrop of the almost naked economic calendar for Britain, these events/data should be noted: the importance of data releases on US inflation and retail sales, the development of the situation around the currency wars and the speech of Chancellor of the Treasury, Philip Anthony Hammond. The latter plans to present a plan for the borrowing of the country, which will be characterized by the lowest emissions for the last at least 10 years, according to Bloomberg experts. Theoretically, this should lead to an increase in demand for British bonds in the secondary market, lower yields and short-term weaken the pound. In the medium- and long-term period, the high demand of non-residents for British securities in the face of declining supply is a bullish factor for the GBP / USD pair. However, the interest of foreign investors should be returned.

The uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations should be added to the growing tension within the United Kingdom, wherein Scotland and Wales are willing to live up to the old rules of EU laws, and London has to look for leverage to prevent a repeat of the referendum history of Scottish independence. The outcome may be quite different.

Despite all the troubles of the pound, the consensus forecast of experts in Reuters suggests that after 12 months, it will trade at $ 1.41 due to the weakness of the US dollar and the continuation of the cycle of normalization of the monetary policy BoE. Currently, the futures market feels comfortable with its forecast that the REPO rate will be raised in May, but the decisions of the Bank of England will depend primarily on macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, when Hammond comes out and the release of data on US inflation will be released on Tuesday, it is likely to be an important day to determine the fate of GBP / USD pair. Acceleration of the CPI allows to return the investors' interest on the monetary restriction of the Fed and provide support to the US dollar.

Technically, the activation of the inverted "Bat" pattern and the exit of quotes outside the downward trading channel will increase the risk of GBP / USD pair quotations rising towards the level of 1.41. On the contrary, the decline of the sterling below $ 1.38 will create the prerequisites for the realization of the Gartley pattern.

GBP / USD pair, daily chart


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Bitcoin analysis for March 12, 2018


Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $9.834. This week, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan spoke about both public and privately issued cryptocurrencies. Zhou details that the central bank dislikes "speculative cryptocurrency products" and the bank does not officially recognize digital currencies like bitcoin. Further Zhou explains the bank is monitoring projects like bitcoin and initial coin offerings (ICO), and aims to ramp up regulatory actions.

Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price is testing median line (resistance) of the upward channel, which is a sign taht buying might be exhausted. I also found a Fibonacci expansion 161.8% (resistance) at the price of $9.886, which is another strong resistance. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The dodnward targets are set at the price of $9.504 and at the price of $9.110.


$9.886 – Intraday resistance

$9.500– Intraday support

$9.500 – Objective target 1

$9.110 – Objective target 2

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

BITCOIN Analysis for March 12, 2018

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains after bouncing off the $8,500 price area with a daily close. Recently Bitcoin failed to sustain its momentum to break above $12,000 which led the price to have a drastic fall below $10,000 price area, resulting in further bearish pressure. The recent bearish pressure is assumed to be triggered by the measures from Japan's Regulator to the domestic Bitcoin Exchanges. Recently, several Bitcoin exchanges were shut down in Japan. Currently, the price is struggling to break above $10,000 price area and a daily close above $10,000 is expected push the price higher towards $12,000 in the coming days. As the bullish engulfing candle was quite impulsive, the bulls are currently expected to be more powerful than before to push the price much higher in the future. As the price remains above $8,500 price area, BTC is likely to extend the bullish bias.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CHF for March 12, 2018

EUR/CHF has been impulsive with the bullish pressure after breaking above the 1.16 price area recently, but currently is observed to be struggling at the edge of 1.1715 with recent daily candles. This week, EUR/CHF is expected to be quite volatile having high impact economic reports to be published back to back on EUR and CHF. On Wednesday, ECB president Draghi is going to speak about the upcoming interest rate decision and future monetary policies whereas it is expected to be quite neutral for the immediate impact in the EUR gains. Today, Euro Group Meeting is going to be held where the event is expected to have minimum impact on the EUR gains as well. On the other hand, on Thursday CHF Libor Rate is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at -0.75% and SNB Monetary Policy Assessment is also expected to be quite hawkish in nature having recent positive economic reports to be commented on. As of the current scenario, this week, CHF is expected to gain further momentum over EUR which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in the pair.

From the technical view, the price has recently rejected off the 1.1715 price area with several daily candles which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure with the target towards the 1.16 support area in the coming days. The dynamic level of 20 EMA is currently residing below the current price area which is also expected to pull the price down for the confluence in the upcoming price action. As the price remains below the 1.1750 price area with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Analysis of Gold for March 12, 2018


Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,318.90. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I have found a successful bearish breakout of the 10h balance, which is a strong sign that sellers are in control. Since Gold ash been already trading in the downward trend, my advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $11,313.15 and at the price of $1,308.10.

Resistance levels:

R1: $1,328.11

R2: $1.332.77

R3: $1.340.35

Support levels:

S1: $1,315.85

S2: $1,308.23

S3: $1,303.57

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for March 12, 2018

USD/JPY has been quite non-volatile amid the bearish trend as it broke below 111.00 price area with a daily close. Recently, USD/JPY has been quite making corrective moves amid volatile trade in light of mixed economic labor reports published on Friday. Ahead of the upcoming rate hike this month, USD is expected to gain impulsively over JPY whereas the market got into correction and indecision. The US Unemployment Rate remained constant at 4.1% which was expected to decrease to 4.0% and Average Hourly Earnings decreased to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% whereas Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 313k from the previous figure of 239k. Though the Employment Change report was published with a surplus, unchanged Unemployment Rate and a decrease in Average Hourly Earnings explain that the employment development was observed in the lower boundary jobs rather than high impact economic development jobs. This week, US Retail Sales, Core CPI, and Building Permits report are going to be published which are also assumed to have mixed results but any positive economic report result is expected to lead to further gain on the USD side in the short term. On the other hand, BOJ Policy Rate report was published recently where the key policy rate remained unchanged at -0.10% whereas Average Cash Earnings remained unchanged at 0.7% and Household Spending increased significantly to 2.0% from the previous negative value of -0.1%. This week, Japan's PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 2.5% from the previous value of 2.7% and Core Machinery Orders report is expected to increase to 5.3% from the previous value of -11.9%. As for the current scenario, this week USD/JPY is expected to trade sideways whereas certain bearish pressure is expected until the US comes up with positive economic reports to recover the gains in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding below the dynamic level of 20 EMA after rejecting off it with a daily close. The pair is currently going through a Bullish Regular Divergence which might get triggered after the price bounces back from the 105.50 price area with a daily close which will lead to further bullish pressure towards 107.50 in the coming days. As the price remains above 105.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

EUR/USD analysis for March 12, 2018


Recently, the EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2340. Anyway, according to the 30M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of the pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.2335, which is a sign of weakness. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2305 and at the price of 1.2275.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2335

R2: 1.2365

R3: 1.2395

Support levels:

S1: 1.2275

S2: 1.2243

S3: 1.2215

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for March 12, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite indecisive recently after having an impulsive bearish pressure taking the price all the way down below 1.2350 price area with a daily close. Due to mixed economic reports on Friday, USD failed to gain momentum as expected ahead of the upcoming Rate Hike this month. On Friday, US Unemployment Rate report was published with an unchanged value of 4.1% which was expected to decrease to 4.0% whereas Non-Farm Employment Change increased to 313k from the previous figure of 239k which was expected to decrease to 205k. Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings report was also published with a decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at 0.2%. As for the economic reports, it seemed like the Employment Change did not have much impact as the Average Hourly Earnings decrease means that the development was not impulsive as the indicator was expected to show just minor increase. The mixed economic report dented the expected USD rally against EUR recently whereas the market sentiment is still expected to be in favor of USD in the coming days. This week, US Retail Sales, Core CPI and Building Permits reports are going to be published which are likely to reveal mixed results, leading to further indecision and correction in the market. On the other hand, today the Euro Group Meeting is going to be held which is expected to have a neutral impact on the shared currency today. Moreover, this week ECB President Draghi is going to speak on the Interest Rate and future monetary policy. His comments are also expected to have a neutral impact on the market sentiment as well. As for the current scenario, any positive economic report from the US this week may extend bearish pressure in the pair if ECB President fails to provide a positive economic outlook in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price was quite indecisive on Friday, closing above 1.23 but below 1.2350 which creates a small range between these 50 pips. Currently the price is expected to retest 1.2350 price area with a daily close and then proceed impulsively lower towards 1.2160 and later towards 1.2050-60 price area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.2350 with a daily close, further bearish pressure is expected.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Bitcoin analysis for 12/03/2018

The European Commission has announced its expected official line of action on the regulation of Fintech technology, including Blockchain technology, in all EU Member States. In a press release outlining the ideas that the Commission is now calling an action plan, high-level EU officials are expressing the need to create structures that allow innovative technologies to be introduced in the future. "Technologies such as Blockchain can mean major changes in financial services and more [...]. We need to create a structure that will allow innovation to thrive while managing risk and protecting consumers."- said Commissioner for Digital Economy and Society, Mariya Gabriel.

The action plan focuses on five main areas. Creation of FinTech EU Laboratory, Blockchain Observatory, promotion of digitization of information from registered companies, cybersecurity efforts and the best possible regulatory practices, which, according to the Commission, will be based on guidelines from the European Supervisory Authorities. Also, crowdfunding licensing schemes are also planned. Government plenipotentiary Valdis Dombrovskis claims that this will help crowdfunding platforms increase their reach in Europe.

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced twice from the grey rectangle zone between the levels of $8,085 - $8,397 and now is testing the old golden trend line again. After the weekend the price got stuck between the weekly pivot at the level of $9,738 and local support at the level of $9,434. If bulls want to gain more control over this market, then they have to move the price towards the level of $10,111 and break out above it. This move will confirm the bulls strength and make the attack of the recent high at the level of $11,714 possible. Otherwise, the bears will push the price back towards the grey rectangle area.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Trading plan for 12/03/2018

The week begins with the strength of risky assets after the risk-on support of the US labor market report and the ongoing discussion about the exemptions from the Trump customs policy. The political scandal in Japan weighs on USD / JPY. NZD, AUD, NOK are strong. The stock market shines green again. So des Bitcoin.

On Monday 12th March, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on 10-y Bond Auction in the US and Federal Budget Balance.

USD/JPY analysis for 12/03/2018:

USD / JPY fell to the level of 106.35 in response to new information about the Muritomo scandal. The case concerns the sale of a plot in Osaka Prefecture for 14 percent values for a private school in which the wife of Prime Minister Abe was the honorary director. Today, Aso Finance Minister confirmed that changes were made to Muritomo's several Ministry documents. Shortly after the situation, Abe said in media that he feels responsible for the MOF land sale document alterations and that it's a situation that has shaken public faith. He wants finance minister Aso to take responsibility for the investigation and delegates Aso's responsibility to clarify full facts of document alterations. So far it does not look like a major political turmoil is growing in Japan, but who knows what will investigation reveal.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The initial market reaction to the news was a drop from the level of 106.95 to 106.40, but now the bulls are defending the support at the mentioned level. The market tried three times to break out above the trend line resistance around the level of 107.00, but so far no avail. The market conditions are overbought, so the further downside slide toward the level of 105.53 and 105.25. If those two levels are clearly violated, then the next technical support is seen at the weekly time frame at the level of 104.42.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 12, 2018



  • The EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2260 and 1.2373. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.2408 and 1.2442, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. The market moved from its bottom at 1.2260 and continued to rise towards the top of 1.2352. Today, in the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2404, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.2404. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.2404 with the first target at 1.2295. If the trend breaks the support level of 1.2295, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 1.2260 in order to test the double bottom.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 12, 2018



  • Pivot point: 1.3813.
  • The GBP/USD pair is still trading around the daily pivot point (1.3813). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.3813 to the bottom around 1.3765. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3813 followed by 1.3876, while the daily support 1 is seen at 1.3711. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; for that the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the area of 1.3813/1.3760. So it will be good to sell at 1.3813 or 1.3760 with the first target of 1.3711. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.3650. The strong daily support is seen at the 1.3650 level, which represents the double bottom on the H1 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to trade between 1.3813 and 1.3650 in coming days. The price spot of 1.3813 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.3813 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.3927, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.3927.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of USDX for March 12, 2018

As we warned last week, the Dollar index was testing resistance at 90.30 where the cloud was found and got rejected. Price is still above the March lows. Bears remain in control.


Price is below the Ichimoku cloud. Resistance remains at 90.30. Support is at 89.40. A break below it will push price towards 88.30. Trend remains bearish in the short-term. A new break above the Ichimoku cloud will be a bullish sign and could push the index towards 91.


On a daily basis the Dollar index is getting rejected at the Daily cloud resistance. Support is at Friday's lows where we also find the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator). Daily trend remains bearish as price is below the Kumo. A break and daily close above the lower cloud boundary would be a bullish sign.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis of gold for March 12, 2018

The Gold price remains inside the trading range of $1,300-$1,350. Price is moving above and below the 4-hour cloud for the last couple of weeks. There is no clear trend. This is better depicted in the Daily chart as price remains inside the cloud.


Red line - resistance

Blue line - support

The price is trading again above the 4hour Ichimoku cloud. The price reached again just above the $1,310 area and bounce towards the cloud area. Support is at $1,312.50 and resistance at the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) at $1,326. There is no clear short-term trend.


Magenta line - long-term resistance

Red line - support trend line

On a daily basis, the Gold price is inside the Daily Kumo. Trend is neutral. Support is at $1,300 while resistance is at $1,337-40. Long-term resistance is at $1,350 and we will get very bullish on a break above that area. Until then we prefer to remain cautious.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Euro at the Crossroads


On Thursday, the ECB meeting ended based on expectations, as the interest rates maintained at the zero level. While ECB head Mario Draghi did not make a traditional remark about the possibility of continuing the program of purchasing assets after the completion of the current period of decline.

The single European currency had a slight reaction towards the meeting results, nor to the press conference of Draghi because he did not mention anything new for himself. The position of the ECB remains cautious, and the economy is growing steadily. But the growth rate of wages remains low, which does not indicate a possible increase in inflation.


Significantly, more markets are concerned about the development of the trade duties situation. US President Donald Trump announced possible exceptions for Mexico and Canada as US partners for NAFTA but Trump did not mention anything about the preferences for Europe. The new tariffs will be in effect after March 23rd, Brussels is currently in trouble since it needs to resolve the deadline for these two important issues, Brexit and the US response.

Euro unexpectedly appears under strong pressure, which restrained further growth in the coming week. It is possible that the decline towards the support of 1.2150 is expected on Monday against the background of the rapid growth of currency risks for the euro area.

United Kingdom

Generally, the main macroeconomic frameworks changed last week in accordance with the forecasts, as the pound responded sluggishly, and the players do not have a clear position in the trend direction.

The quarterly inflation forecast from the Bank of England was 2.9% which further coincided with the forecasts, the growth rate of GDP under the NIESR version is 0.3% for the last quarter, which is also fully coincided with the experts' forecast. Housing prices have not changed, and the dynamics of industrial production is moderately positive.


The pound is gradually losing its main growth driver in the previous months, Brexit talks. Last week, the EU unveiled its negotiating program, and it did not please the queen's subjects at all. According to the EU, one must stand by the positions of preserving the single market without any exceptions in order to successfully complete them, as insisted by the UK. The EU does not intend to give an advantage to the other side at its own expense, it is clear from the document itself, providing the UK to reconsider its position on leaving the customs union and the single market.

The document also contains a tough position on the main issue concerning the access of the British banks to the EU market, which could limit the circulation of the pound and lead to a reorientation of financial flows.

The signing will take place at the EU summit on March 22-23, while the pound has no direction and continues to find for it, most likely, this week.

As of today, the pound is trading near the equilibrium price is formed by a "wedge" pattern with the top on January 25. The time has come. the economic forecast from the Ministry of Finance. This could possibly contain unexpected conclusions for the market regarding the frameworks of monetary stimulus.


Prices of oil did not ignore the report on the US labor market, showing a resumption of growth simultaneously with the growth of stock markets. The expected decrease to the February lows did not happen, as the growth in the US production can be compensated by the demand growth that will keep the overall balance above the forecast level.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of new drilling rigs has increased by 3 percent last week. The conference in Houston generated more questions than answers, the talks between OPEC representatives and the American slates has no apparent result, but both sides are extremely interested in maintaining positive price dynamics and look for some forms of cooperation.

The CFTC report showed that speculators reduce the total shorts and expect the growth of quotes to recover to the level of $ 70 / bbl. this week.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Trading Plan for US Dollar Index for March 12, 2018


Technical outlook:

The US Dollar Index seems to be poised to print higher highs and higher lows going forward. The entire rally between 88.25 through 90.90 levels has taken out the initial resistance at 90.50/60 and hence it can be labeled as wave 1 as shown here. The subsequent drop has been corrective in nature and has found support from the fibonacci 0.50 levels as seen here. The termination of low formed around 89.40 levels can be labelled as wave 2 or it could form lower low around 89.20 levels, which is the fibonacci 0.618 support. In either cases, the index should be fetched on the long side, keeping in mind the bigger picture. Interim support is seen around 88.25 levels, while resistance is at 92.50 levels for now.

Trading plan:

Please remain long and also look to buy further on dips. Risk remains below 88.25 levels.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no fundamental events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

Trading Plan for EUR/USD for March 12, 2018


Technical outlook:

The EUR/USD pair is still looking for a lower top to be carved out before the drop could accelerate. The pair seems to have either topped out around 1.2450 levels last week or it would push through 1.2470/80 levels before reversing lower. Please note that 1.2470/80 is also the fibonacci 0.786 resistance level of the entire drop between 1.2555 and 1.2150 levels respectively. On the other hand, please watch out for resistance around the 1.2380 levels, if prices push through intraday. A bearish reaction there should also be considered as an opportunity to initiate short positions. Interim resistance is seen at 1.2450 levels while support is through 1.2150 levels respectively. A safe trading strategy would be to look out for opportunities to sell higher.

Trading plan:

Remain short and also look to sell through 1.2370/80 levels. Risk above 1.2555.

Fundamental outlook:

There are no major events lined up for the day.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -

The employment report dispelled concerns

The report on the labor market, published on Friday, came exactly as it was expected- on the one hand, it indicates a steady growth of the economy, on the other, it removes fears of the fourth rate increase this year.

The number of new jobs exceeded all possible forecasts. In February the increase was 313, 000, moreover, in January the data was also revised upwards from 200, 000 to 239, 000. The unemployment rate again is 4.1%, as in January, which is also quite a positive factor.

However, another indicator, namely, the growth rate of wages, was disappointing - the growth was 0.1% versus the forecast of 0.2%; on an annualized basis, growth slowed from 2.8% to 2.6%, which means that inflationary pressures are again under threat.

The GDPNow model after the publication of the jobs data shows GDP growth in the 1st quarter at 2.5%, that is, the forecast is significantly reduced.


The growth of wages at the current stage is given a key importance, since the Fed proceeds from the postulate of direct dependence of wage growth and inflation. Weaker than expected, revenue growth reduces consumer demand, hence the deterioration of the forecast.

Nevertheless, by the end of the trading session, US stock indices showed steady growth. The reason for this enthusiasm is that lower inflation rates reduce the threat of a fourth rate hike this year; in any case, the futures on the rate, according to CME, show a probability of a rate hike in December of less than 30%.

Even the rather hawkish speech of FOMC member Rosengren did not help, which noted that "recent economic data is pretty good," and the Fed may raise rates more than three times this year.

Together with the stock indices, commodity prices increased, the dollar played some losses against the Japanese yen, and against the commodity currencies, on the contrary, the position lost, which indicates the growing market enthusiasm.

Thus, a weak wage growth turned out to be much more important in the eyes of investors than the threat of currency wars. On Thursday, President Donald Trump signed a decree on the introduction of tariffs for steel and aluminum by 25% and 10% respectively, while paying taxes were exempted from Mexico and Canada - trading partners for NAFTA.


Thus, the threat is realized, although partially, and the response from the EU and China will follow. However, Trump is confident in his abilities - "If you do not want to pay by tariffs, transport your plant to the US" - that's how he commented on the wave of discontent.

Yet Trump is more of a trader than the president - increasing tariffs will strengthen his position in the negotiations on NAFTA and will allow for a review of trade relations in other, no less significant areas.

Nevertheless, the reaction of the trading partners remains negative. President of France Emmanuel Macron in a telephone conversation with Trump said that everyone will suffer from restrictions, and they risk provoking a trade war. The day before the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, spoke even more harshly, saying that it was necessary to adhere to the negotiation format in disputable issues, and unilateral decisions were dangerous, and if the US began to apply trade restrictions against its allies, then who were the enemies?

Most likely, on Monday there will be the first data on possible response measures. The markets will play a positive role because of the threat of a fourth increase in the rate of the Fed, and inevitably return to the issue of tariffs and restrictions.

On Tuesday, consumer inflation data will be published in February. There is a negative outlook,as 0.2% growth is expected against 0.5% in January. Adjustment to either side can create increased volatility due to risk revaluation. On Wednesday, you need to pay attention to the report on retail sales and producer prices.

The dollar finished the week confidently, on Monday the dollar index may resume growth against the yen, euro and franc, commodity currencies are unlikely to give the initiative.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -