EUR/NZD analysis for October 31, 2014

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.5955 in a very high volume. We can observe that the price has broken our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6095, which pushed the price to continue with downward pressure. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe a bullish corrective phase, so I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential resistance levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of 1.6070 and Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.6140. We also got absorption volume in the background, which makes EUR/NZD very risky for mid-term buying.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.6194


R2: 1.6236


R3: 1.6305


Support levels:


S1: 1.6056


S2: 1.6014


S3: 1.5945


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying EUR/NZD pair since our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% got broken


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Gold : analysis for October 31, 2014

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Overview:


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,161.06 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our swing low at the price of 1,183.00 is broken, so we we may expect testing the level of 1,147.00 (major Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we got supply in a high volume, which is a sign that the price may continue with downwad movement. A smaller bullish corrective phase is possible but watch for selling opportunities after retracement.


Daily pivot Fibonacci points:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1,211.55


R2: 1,216.51


R3: 1,224.53


Support levels


S1: 1,195.51


S2: 1,190.55


S3: 1,182.53


Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since price has broke swing low


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 31 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 1.6164


R2: 1.6120


R1: 1.6059


Current spot: 1.6031


S1: 1.6000


S2: 1.5958


S3: 1.5932


Technical summary:


The failure to break above resistance at 1.6263 and the following break below support at 1.6000 is very disappointing and frustrating. We still prefer the bullish picture, but at this point there is no clear-cut short-term count. We do think, that red wave ii has taken on the shape of an expanded flat correction, but a break above resistance at 1.6107 is needed to confirm this count. Under no circumstances can a break below support at 1.5903 be allowed as the will immediately shift the count to the expanded diagonal.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.6000 was hit for a small loss. We will await a more clear-cut picture before getting exposed.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for October 31 - 2014

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Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 141.22


R2: 140.20


R1: 139.70


Current spot: 13939


S1: 139.10


S2: 138.82


S3: 138.40


Technical summary:


BOJ unexpectedly announced its decision to expand the stimulus with additional 80 trillion JPY, which has propelled the JPY higher. Now, the rally from the 134.14 low is having all signs of an impulsive rally. We expect resistance at 141.22 to be broken to confirm that an important bottom is in place at 134.14. However, if resistance at 141.22 is broken, then the entire correction from the 145.69 high must be regarded as being over and a new impulsive rally higher to 186.04 as the next long-term upside target. For now, we expect support near 139.10, which ideally will protect the downside to test important resistance at 141.22, but only above here, will call for more upside in a longer term.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 138.10 was hit for a little loss. We will await stronger clues, whether the correction from 145.69 finally comes to and end at 134.14


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 31, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a three-week high 109.46 on Thursday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the report that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund plans to lower its target allocation for domestic bonds from nearly 60% now to 35% (versus market expectations of reduction to 40%) over the medium to long term, positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 86.15 versus 85.98 early Thursday) after slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and stronger-than-expected 3.5% annual growth in U.S. 3Q GDP (versus forecast +3.1%), although details to the report were less rosy; 250 drop in four-week moving average for U.S. initial jobless claims to 281,000 in week ended Oct. 25, the lowest average reading since May 2000. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers and yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.16% to 14.52) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 0.62% at 1,994.65). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.308% versus 2.321% late Wednesday) after Germany's inflation data came in softer-than-expected and positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 112.55 and the second target at 113.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 109.45. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 108.70. The pivot point is at 110.


Resistance levels:

112.55

113.40

113.85


Support levels:

109.45

108.70

108.35


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 31, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting three-week high 0.9613 on Thursday. CHF sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected Switzerland October KOF economic barometer of 99.8 (versus forecast 98.2). USD/CHF is also weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF downside is limited by the positive USD sentiment, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comments:

Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is in a bullish mode.


Trading recommendations:


The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9650 and the second target at 0.9680. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9515. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9480. The pivot point is at 0.9565.


Resistance levels:

0.9650

0.9680

0.9710



Support levels:


0.9515

0.9480

0.9450


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 31, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


NZD/USD is to trade in a lower range. The pair is supported by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 86.15 versus 85.98 early Thursday) after slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday; stronger-than-expected 3.5% annual growth in U.S. 3Q GDP (versus forecast +3.1%), although details to the report were less rosy; 250 drop in four-week moving average for U.S. initial jobless claims to 281,000 in week ended Oct. 25, the lowest average reading since May 2000, Kiwi sales on buoyant AUD/NZD cross, and positions adjustment before the weekend. But NZD/USD gains tempered by Kiwi demand on buoyant NZD/JPY cross amid reduced risk aversion and NZD-USD interest differential.


Technical comment:


Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bullish, but stochastics is in a bearish mode.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 0.7765. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7700. The pivot point stands at 0.79. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7955 and the second target at 0.7990.


Resistance levels:

0.7955

0.7990

0.8045

Support levels:


0.7765

0.77

0.7665


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 31, 2014

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Fundamental overview:


GBO/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. It is supported by the positive risk sentiment and demand from Japanese importers. GBP/JPY is underpinned by the report that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund plans to lower its target allocation for domestic bonds from nearly 60% now to 35% (versus market expectations of reduction to 40%) over the medium to long term. But GBP/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales and positions adjustment before the weekend.


Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 179.75 and the second target at 180.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 175.15. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 173.90. The pivot point is at 175.90.


Resistance levels:

179.75

180.70

181.35

Support levels:

175.15

173.90

173


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com