GBP/USD: plan for the American session on May 7. The pressure on the pound is gradually increasing

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bulls failed to return to an important resistance level of 1.3130, which scared off new buyers of the pound. The main task is to consolidate above the resistance of 1.3130, which will break the formed upper limit of the downward channel formed and give GBP/USD an impulse for a new breakthrough up to the highs of 1.3167 and 1.3227, where I recommend fixing the profits. Also, the bulls will need a lot of strength to stay above the support of 1.3078 in the afternoon. Only the formation of a false breakdown will allow us to expect a return to the maximum in the area of 1.3130. In a scenario of the breakdown of 1.3079, I recommend buying a pound immediately to rebound only after a test of the minimum of 1.3038.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears coped with the morning task and did not allow the pair to break through the resistance of 1.3130, to which I paid attention. However, the main goal of the sellers is to break through and return to the support level of 1.3080, which will push the GBP/USD pair to the area of the minimum of 1.3038 and 1.2992, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the growth scenario above 1.3130, and this can only happen after the positive news on Brexit from Theresa May, you can sell after updating the maximum of 1.3167, but it is best to wait for the test level of 1.3227 and open short positions from there to rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted just below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates only a small advantage of the sellers of the pound.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of a company of pounds in the afternoon, the upper limit in the area of 1.3130 will act as resistance. The breakthrough of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3179 may increase the pressure on the pound.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the American session on May 7. German data disappointed traders

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

A weak report on orders in the German industry and unconvincing forecasts of the European Commission led to pressure on the euro, which kept the pair in a narrow side channel and did not allow to continue growth. The main goal remains the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1218, which will lead EUR/USD to the maximum area of last week 1.1260 and will retain the upward potential with the test levels of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend fixing the profits. In a decline scenario, it is best to return to long positions in euro after a correction down from the support of 1.1180 or a rebound from a larger area of 1.1138.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears were satisfied with the weak report on Germany and managed to form a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1217. As long as the trade is conducted below this level, the pressure on the euro will continue, which will lead to a decrease and consolidation below the support level of 1.1180, the breakdown of which will push EUR/USD to the minimum area of 1.1138 and 1.1112, where I recommend fixing the profits. With the euro growing above the resistance of 1.1218 in the second half of the day, against the background of the absence of important fundamental statistics for the United States, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1260, but the intermediate resistance may be the level of 1.1240.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which continues to indicate the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and GOLD on May 7

GBP/USD

The main vector of movement of the pound in the short term is set by the bearish wave of March 13. Over the past month, a complex correctional wave (B) has been forming in it. By the current day, its structure looks complete, and the price of the pair has reached the lower limit of the large-scale resistance zone. The price decline that started 2 days ago has a reversal potential

Forecast:

In the next trading sessions, given the generally flat nature of the movement of the pound, the price is expected to rise again to the resistance zone. The probability of a puncture of its upper limit is not excluded but is unlikely.

Recommendations:

Purchases today can be used only on the smallest TF, in the form of "scalping". When approaching the pound to the reversal zone, it is recommended to start tracking the sale signals of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 1.3190 / 1.3220

Support zones:

- 1.3060 / 1.3030

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AUD/USD

Since the end of January, a downward wave structure has been developing on the Aussie chart, correcting the previous segment of the bullish trend. In its last part, from April 25, the middle rolling phase of movement is formed. The wave has the form of a stretched plane.

Forecast:

At the next trading sessions, it is expected to continue the upward trend of the price movement, until its completion within the settlement zone. In the first half of the day, a short-term price rollback is not excluded.

Recommendations:

Sales of "Australian" in the next day will be irrelevant. At the end of oncoming movements, it is recommended to track the emerging signals of your vehicle to purchase a pair.

Resistance zones:

- 0.7080 / 0.7110

Support zones:

- 0.7000 / 0.6970

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GOLD

The price of gold moves to the "South" of the chart by the dominant wave of March 25. Since April 23, the counter wave zigzag began to develop, taking the place of correction (B). The wave has the form of a standard plane, its structure looks complete. Quotes support the lower limit of the resistance zone.

Forecast:

In the next day, a flat mood is likely, with the course moving down from the nearest reversal level. Further, a second attempt to break the upper limit of the flat area is expected.

Recommendations:

Purchases in the next session are not relevant. It is more reasonable to skip the rollback period or reduce the lot in sales to a minimum. In the area of the support zone, it is recommended to track the signals of your vehicle to find the entrance to long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 1305.0 / 1310.0

- 1285.0 / 1290.0

Support zones:

- 1275 / 1270.0

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Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last unfinished wave is analyzed. Zones show areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking according to the method used by the author, the solid background is the formed structure, the dotted ones are the expected movements.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues to grow on the background of new requests in the analysis of Google Search Volume Index

Bitcoin exchange rate has updated the another psychological above 6000 USD. I have repeatedly said that an important indicator of predicting the price of Bitcoin is the Google Search Volume Index.

Yesterday, another study on this topic was published. It says that with an increase in the number of Twitter posts that mentioned Bitcoin, as well as references to Google's search queries, when analyzing Google Trends and the Google Search Volume Index, the cryptocurrency rate comes to life after some time and begins to show growth. This indicates an influx of new players into the market, which is good news for investors who are betting on further growth.

Signal to buy Bitcoin (BTC):

Buyers confidently took the level of 6000 USD and are aimed at breaking the maximum of 6240, which will lead to an update of the levels of 6360 and 6440, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a downward correction, support will be provided by the area of 6010, however, it is possible to open long positions immediately for a rebound in the area of 5777.

Signal to sell Bitcoin (BTC):

The formation of a false breakdown at a maximum of 6240 will be the first signal to sell Bitcoin with the aim of a support test of 6010, and an update of the minimum of 5777, where I recommend fixing the profits. With further growth in the trend, the resistance is located in the area of 6360 and 5430.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 07, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6648. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6648 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the major resistance is seen at the level of 0.6690. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, strong resistance will be found at the level of 0.6690 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6575. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6575, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level 0.6544.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 07, 2019

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. The major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated.

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Bitcoin analysis for May 07, 2019

BTC did break the resistance of the trading range at $6.110 and confirmed further upward continuation. It is the late stage of the upward trend but seems that there is still fuel for the upside.

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Purple rectangle – Resistance which became support

Green rectangle – Support

Green channel – Potential bullish flag

According to the H1 time-frame, we found that BTC did upward break of the resistance cluster, which confirmed demand for the BTC and potential more upside. The bullish flag in creation after the breakout is another sign that BTC my continue with the upside. Support levels are seen at the price of $6.105 and $5.718. Upward objective is set at the price of $6.400. Watch for buying opportuntiies.

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Analysis of Gold for May 07, 2019

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.279. Gold is trading inside of defined range between $1.285 and $1.277. We are neutral to bearish on the Gold.

analytics5cd17e4b4656a.jpg

Yellow horizontal line – Support 1

Yellow horizontal line – Support 2

Blue line – Middle of Keltner Channel EMA

According to the H1 time-frame, we found that that Gold is trading in the downward sloping channel and we expect potential test of the lower diagonal at $1.275 before any further upside. Gold is trading in the trading range and the current stance is neutral. Anyway, there is potential for the test of $1.275 and $1.270. To confirm upside, we would like to see breakout of the $1.284 in order to establish buying positions.

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GBP/USD. May 7th. Trading system "Regression Channels". On the threshold of the second referendum

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 100.2399

On Monday, May 6, the British pound rolled back from Friday's highs. Meanwhile, traders are discussing a possible second referendum. Recall that the probability of reaching an agreement between Labor and the Conservatives, which will provide the necessary number of votes on the next ballot for Theresa May's agreement with the EU, is not 100%. If the voting fails again or fails to reach an agreement with the Labor Party, then many deputies may demand that this issue be submitted to a popular vote. Theresa May, who is opposed to the second referendum, certainly wants to avoid such a scenario. Dissatisfaction with her actions is expressed even within her own Conservative Party. Therefore, based on all these events, we believe that the pound has no prospects for strong growth. Most likely, the pound was in demand in recent days on the basis of a possible second referendum, that is, again on expectations. But as it happened in about 100% of cases, after such growth, the expectations are invariably followed by a decrease in the pair. Of course, now everything may be different, but we still believe that the pound will resume its decline.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD has adjusted after Friday's growth but now, it is trying to resume its upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to resume trading on the increase with the targets at 1.3184 and 1.3245 small lots. From a fundamental point of view, the resumption of the downward trend in the pair will be much more logical.

Sell positions are recommended to be considered only after the pair has been fixed below the moving with the first targets at 1.3000 and 1.2939.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR/USD. May 7th. Trading system "Regression Channels". Does the dollar react negatively to the escalation of the trade conflict

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 57.4001

The first trading day of the week ended with a slight strengthening of the European currency. On Monday, we expected that the European markets would rush to play Friday's American news, but this did not happen. From our point of view, this point is indicative. It turns out that a fairly strong macroeconomic statistics from the States was completely ignored. Why? Maybe because there are very few sellers of the pair now, considering the still rather low EUR/USD exchange rate values? One way or another, the conclusion now arises that market participants are not ready to actively sell the pair on the basis of macroeconomic reports alone. We need a stronger fundamental background, which does not exist, given the refusal of the Fed to further raise rates. In recent days, the theme of the trade war between the States and China has intensified. It would seem that the parties managed to come to a mutually beneficial agreement, but in practice, Donald Trump went on the attack on Beijing again. Through his Twitter, the US President said that in the near future, duties on various categories of goods will be raised from 0% and 10% to 25%. What was the basis for such a step, it is difficult to say now. In any case, the ball is again on the side of China, and now we are waiting for a response from Beijing. At the moment, it can be stated that the trade war between the countries has flared up again.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1,1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has overcome the moving, but now it seems that traders do not know which way to trade. Formally, long positions with targets at 1.1230 and 1.1292 are relevant now, but it is difficult to say how long the weak upward movement will be maintained.

It is recommended to open sell orders not earlier than reversing the pair below the moving average line with the first target at 1.1169.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR./USD analysis for May 07, 2019

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1186. EUR did break the support trendline in the background, which is sign that sellers took control from buyers at least on the intraday prospective.

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Yellow rectangle – Resistance 1

Yellow rectangle – Resistance 2

Yellow horizontal line – Support 1

Yellow horizontal line – Support 2

According to the H1 time-frame, we found that EUR confirmed resistance at the price of 1.1215, which is good sign that sellers are in control. EUR did break the diagonal support in the background and the momentum increased on the downside. We expect, potential testing of support levels at 1.1171 and 1.1136. Upward scenario will come into the play only if we see clean break of resistance at 1.1215. Watch for intraday selling opportunities.

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence on May 7. The euro is slowly moving up again

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed the consolidation above the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177). As a result, on May 7, the growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 76.4% (1.1241). Also, the pair managed to rebound from the level of 100.0% yesterday. There is no single indicator of emerging divergences today. The rebound of the pair from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0%.

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair is located below the level of 127.2% (1.1285), thus maintaining the chances of resuming the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941) at any time. There are no emerging divergences on the current chart either. The consolidation of the pair's quotes above the Fibo level of 127.2% will work in favor of the euro and the resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1553).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 since the pair completed the closing above the level of 100.0%. The stop loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1177 if the pair rebounds from the retracement level of 76.4%. The stop loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1241.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence on May 7. Two rebounds from important levels support the prospects of the pound

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3094) and a reversal in favor of the pound. Thus, on May 7, the process of growth of the pair resumed in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.3296). Currently, there are no emerging divergences in any indicator on both charts. The consolidation of the pair under the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the US currency and expect a resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the currency of England and a return to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3117). The consolidation of quotations above the level of Fibo 76.4% will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.3195). The rebound of quotations from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow to expect a turn in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the retracement level of 61.8% (1.3069).

The Fibo grid is built according to the extremes of April 3, 2019, and April 25, 2019.

Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3195 and a stop loss order under the retracement level of 76.4% if the pair closes above 1.3117 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3069 and a stop loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair bounces off of the level of 1. 1.317 (hourly chart).

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Aussie grows up on RBA meeting; dollar drifts downstream

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The Australian dollar jumped sharply after the central bank of the left. The currency rose by about 0.7 percent, to $ 0.7035, after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the rate at 1.50 percent. It is worth noting that the decision of the bank was expected, despite calls for easing of monetary policy after data on weak inflation in the first quarter. And although the RBA left politics unchanged, the stage is set for future cuts, if in case unemployment does not begin to fall. In relation to the yen, the Australian rose 0.5 percent to 77.82 yen.

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The US dollar was mostly kept in the usual range in relation to major currencies, even though there are US statements saying that China "retired" from trade related issues. This had a negative impact on US bond yields and stock futures. It is in the interests of China to conclude a bargain, and a break in negotiations is not very favorable for the domestic economy. And although it was recently assumed that Washington and Beijing could agree, it now became clear that negotiations would take more time. Given that China is not fulfilling its obligations, the White House issued a notice of a proposed increase in tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion from 10 to 25 percent.

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The euro uses the temporary difficulties of the dollar to compensate for the recent losses, but it turns out it is very weak - 1.1210 dollars, which is only 0.1 percent higher compared to the previous day. Sterling rose by about 0.2 percent, to $ 1.3122. In relation to the yen, the dollar fell by one tenth of a percent, to 110.615 yen. During the previous session, he updated the five-week low of 110.285 yen to the dollar. The Japanese currency tends to rise in times of geopolitical or financial stress, since Japan is the largest creditor country in the world.

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RBA took investors by surprise, "Aussie" sharply increased in price

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In anticipation of the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy, the AUD / USD pair slipped to 4-month lows. The sale of the Aussie was primarily caused by the threat of an escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. In addition, analysts had expected the Australian Central Bank to lower the interest rate this month.

However, following the results of the next meeting, the RBA decided to keep the rate unchanged (1.50%). This caught many market participants off guard and provoked a rapid rally "Aussie".

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The head of the RBA, Philip Low, was rather restrained in the comments. He noted the availability of free capacity in the economy and the need to further improve the situation on the labor market so that inflation could reach the target level, but did not give any hints of monetary policy easing over the coming quarters.

Apparently, the regulator chose to refrain from any action on the eve of the elections to the federal parliament of Australia, which will be held on May 18. The current government and the opposition have promised voters a tax cut and increased investment in the country's infrastructure.

In addition, increasing trade tensions between the United States and the Celestial Empire gives the RBA many causes for concern. Given the inclination of the head of the White House, Donald Trump, to take spontaneous decisions, it seems reasonable for the RBA to wait for the official settlement of this conflict before lowering the interest rate. If Washington is able to push Beijing to sign a trade agreement soon with its threats, then the rate cut will probably not be needed at all.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for May 7, 2019

EUR/USD is making corrections trading with higher volatility at near 1.1200 for a few days. Earlier, the price broke below the area with a daily close. USD lost steam for a while struggling for gains versus EUR despite the positive US nonfarm payrolls released on May 2.

Yesterday the Sentix research group published a survey on the eurozone's investor confidence. The index rebounded sharply to 5.3 from the previous figure of -0.3 which was expected to be at 1.1. The report on eurozone's retail sales came in better than expected at 0.0% from the previous value of 0.5% surpassing the forecast for -0.1%. Today the EU Economic Forecast report is going to be published which will include the forecasts for EU member states over next two years covering about 180 variables.

Recently, ECB's Chief Economist Praet dived into the debate over whether the ECB needs to review its interpretation of price stability during the ongoing economic slowdown. Consumer inflation has stuck at the level under 2%. So, CPI growth has undershot the inflation target of 2% for a few years despite stimulus programs worth trillions of EUR. Peter Praet is concerned about the ECB's role when another recession hits the global market as the economy is still quite feeble and the ECB has failed to tackle this problem promptly. The central bank must consider a monetary policy case if it is to deal with a multi-tier deposit rate.

On the USD side, it lost momentum for a while. So, the pair stuck quite well below 1.1200 despite strong employment growth in the US and a low unemployment rate in April. According to Fed's policymakers, weakness in US inflation could be "transitory," suggesting no reason to adjust monetary policy at this point. Powell surprised markets last week by saying that lower inflation trends could be explained partly by "transitory" factors, including fund management fees, apparel prices, and air fares. The remarks were seen by some investors as more aggressive on possible inflation risks than expected. As the labor market is strong as well as US economic growth currently, the gains on the USD side can be seen but not much of impulsive pressure is expected in the short term.

This week on Friday, US CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4% and Core CPI is expected to tick up to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%.

To sum up, the US is facing inflation challenges and Fed's monetary policy. On the other hand, the eurozone has been going through the economic slowdown and ECB's ineffective measures. So, EUR/USD is going to trade with higher volatility this week. However, USD is expected to hold the upper hand in the currency pair in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently being held by the strong resistance area of 1.1200 area and by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance as well. Amid price corrections and higher volatility, the overall trend is still bearish. As the price remains below 1.1200-1.1300 resistance zone, further bearish pressure is expected in this pair with a target towards 1.1050 support area in the future.

analytics5cd1215309501.png

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Fundamental Analysis of USDJPY for May 7, 2019

The USD/JPY pair has been quite bearish since the beginning of the week with a significant gap which is expected to be filled before the strong bearish movement continues.

The US dollar is forecast to soften against the yen amid the Fed's policy decision, even though a strong labor market data and record-low unemployment result have been published recently. Besides, China backtracked on substantial commitments it made during trade talks with the United States, prompting President Donald Trump to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods slated to go into effect on Friday. The US-China trade war is still having its bite on economic growth. Thus, major stock markets fell worldwide on Monday in response to the tweet which preceded scheduled trade talks this week.

According to the Fed's policymakers, some recent weakness of the US inflation could be "transitory," suggesting no reason to adjust monetary policy at this point. Powell surprised markets last week by saying that lower inflation trends could be explained partly by "transitory" factors, including fund management fees, apparel prices, and airfares. The remarks were seen by some investors as more aggressive on possible inflation risks than expected. Currently, as the labor market is strong as well as the US economic growth, the greenback might inch up a bit. This week, Friday's CPI report from the United States is anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.4%, while the Core CPI is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%.

On the JPY side, Asian shares staggered up from their five-week lows on Tuesday but remained fragile after US President Donald Trump's latest threat to raise tariffs on Chinese goods shocked financial markets and fueled worries that trade talks might be derailed. As Japan has greater shares on the Asian trading markets, it is likely to get affected by the weakness of financial markets and the US-China trade war. Japan's Final Manufacturing PMI report was published today showing an increase to 50.2 from the previous figure of 49.5, while experts forecast the reading to be unchanged. Moreover, tomorrow's Monetary Base report is expected to reflect a decrease to 3.6% from the previous value of 3.8%.

Though the Bank of Japan remained somehow optimistic while chasing the inflation target of 2%, the global impact on the economy is likely to result in a further slowdown.

As for the current scenario, the Japanese yen did manage to gain certain momentum amid positive economic data. However, the US dollar might strengthen as well amid such reports as the Employment Change and the Advance GDP.

Now, let us look at the technical view. The price has recently bounced off the 110.50 area with a daily close, and it is expected to lead the price higher towards the 112.00 area in the coming days. Although, if the upcoming US CPI report is pessimistic, the pair may consolidate without any clear trend.

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EURUSD: US accuses China of disrupting trade negotiations. Demand for safe-haven assets will increase

Yesterday, the euro was limited in growth against the US dollar, as well as the British pound. The growing tension in the negotiations between the US and China affected the stock markets again, which also partially affected the currency market.

Also yesterday, during his speech, US sales representative Lighthizer stated that China refuses to fulfill its previous commitments during the negotiations, in connection with which the US will increase duties on Chinese imports worth $ 200 billion from 10% to 25% this Friday. In addition, Lighthizer noted that throughout the past week, the White House has been observing the erosion of China's commitments, which is forcing the administration to return to the previous plan associated with the increase in duties. Further negotiations with representatives of China will continue on Thursday and Friday. Why China's position has changed so drastically? Robert Lighthizer is uncertain.

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Similar statements were made by the US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin.

Moreover, what will lead to further negotiations is unclear. However, the demand for safe-haven assets, such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, may increase significantly in the near future.

As for the data yesterday, only the employment trends index in the United States came out in the second half of the day, which increased in April of this year compared with the previous month. According to the Conference Board report, the employment trend index was at the level of 110.79 points against the revised March value of 110.73 points. The Conference Board said that the expectation of a significant slowdown in the US economy is gradually weakening, but the forecast for employment growth in the next few quarters is acquiring more positive features.

The next speech of the representative of the Fed remained unattended by the market.

Meanwhile, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, said yesterday that he is still expecting one rate increase in 2019 and one in 2020. However, inflation is the key to the future policy of the Fed. Harker suggests that the recent weakness in inflation is temporary, and still expects it to be just over 2% in the medium term.

As for the economic growth, it may be a little over 2% this year, since the latest data on US GDP for the 1st quarter of this year were clearly above the expectations.

Among the main risks associated with further economic growth, Harker attributed trade restrictions and duties that will harm the health of the economy, since negotiations with China may be disrupted.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, further prospects for the movement of the trading instrument seem vague. Bears can prove themselves after returning and updating the resistance level of 1.1220, while the bulls will be clearly set to hold a large support of 1.1180. From which, an attempt will be made to build the lower boundary of the new ascending channel. The purpose of the bulls will be to update the highs last week which is around 1.1260 while the purpose of the bears are the lows last April in the area of 1.1110.

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on May 7. Bears are trying to build the upper limit of a new descending channel

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, buyers managed to show themselves in the support area of 1.3078, and today their main task for the first half of the day will be a consolidation above the resistance of 1.3130, which will break the upper limit of the downward channel that was formed and also provide GBP/USD with the momentum for a new upwards spurt to the highs of 1.3167 and 1.3227, where I recommend to take profits. In the event of a decline, the intermediate support will be the area of 1.3088, however, I recommend that you buy the pound immediately for a rebound only after the test of a low of 1.3038.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Today, bears will focus on the formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.3130, from which the lower boundary of the new downward channel is already built. However, the main task of the sellers will be a breakthrough and a return below the support level of 1.3088, which will push the GBP/USD pair to the area of lows of 1.3038 and 1.2992, where I recommend taking profits. If the growth scenario is above 1.3130, you can sell after updating the high of 1.3167, but it is best to wait for the test of level 1.3227 and open short positions from there immediately on the rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the region of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates uncertainty about the British pound's future direction.

Bollinger bands

In case of a decline, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.3080. The breakthrough of the upper boundary around 1.3130 will be a signal for buying based on the continuation of an upward trend.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on May 7. The euro remains in the side channel, and further growth is at risk

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak data from the eurozone put the euro's further growth at risk. The main goal today will be the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1218, which will lead EUR/USD to the area of last week's high to 1.1260 and maintain the upward potential with test levels of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend taking profits. If the report of the European Commission does not please traders, and, most likely, it will do so, then it is best to return to long positions in euro after a correction downwards from the support of 1.1180 or to rebound from a larger area of 1.1138.

To open short positions on EUR USD is required:

Bears will wait for the report of the European Commission, and an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate at the level of 1.1217 will be a signal to open short positions in the euro in order to fall and consolidate below the support level of 1.1180, the breakdown of which will push the EUR/USD to a low area of 1.138 and 1.112. With the growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1218 in the first half of the day, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1260, but the intermediate resistance could be the level of 1.1240.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, but good data is necessary for the euro's continued growth.

Bollinger bands

The lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1187 area is an intermediate support level. A break of the upper border around 1.1218 could increase the demand for the euro.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for May 7. Another three-wave structure?

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Wave counting analysis:

On May 6, the GBP / USD pair lost about 75 bp, but is already growing again. Considering all the events taking place in the UK, it is somewhat strange to observe such an increase. Nevertheless, you can find a basis for the purchase of the tool, which does not fit in too much with the current wave marking. However, the entire wave counting in any case looks very non-standard. The pair moves mainly with three-wave structures. The trend itself is absent now. It is possible that the markets are now clinging to a straw, which may be the second Brexit referendum. It seems that this is almost the only chance for the pound to escape from new falls. The second referendum, unlike the actions of Theresa May, can finally end with the country's withdrawal from the European Union or by completely repealing the desire to leave the EU.

Purchase goals:

1.3182 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1,3259 - 76.4% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2867 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern suggests a decline in the pair, but now a new upward trend has clearly begun. I do not recommend buying a pair, as the tool does not have news support, and there are constantly negative messages from the UK. I expect that the instrument increase will end near the calculated levels of 61.8% and 76.4% Fibonacci. I recommend to make an unsuccessful attempt to breakthrough one of these marks and plan new sales.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for May 7. The euro will continue to fall, if Trump does not deploy a new trade war with China

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Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, May 6, the trading ended for the pair EUR / USD without any changes. The wave pattern of the downward trend is more complicated, but it still implies a decline in the pair. Unfortunately, the news background, which should have caused sales of the instrument, does not attract the attention of the markets. The US dollar, in turn, may not be in demand due to a possible escalation of the trade conflict with China. That is what the words of Donald Trump, who announced the increase in trade duties for Beijing, may lead to. Thus, I believe that the maximum of the supposed wave 2, 3, and 3 can be considered as a certain point, above which, the current wave pattern will require changes and corrections. As a consequence, I recommend waiting for the next reversal down the MACD.

Sales targets:

1.1097 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1045 - 200.0% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.1324 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build the downward trend. The current wave counting implies a continuation of the decline of the pair with the closest targets 1.1097 and 1.1045, which equates to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci. However, this scenario can be hindered by the reluctance of markets to sell the pair further, as well as Donald Trump. Thus, the MACD signal downwards will be regarded as a new sales call. Nevertheless, I recommend selling the pair in small lots.

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RBA and RBNZ form long-term expectations for AUSUSD and NZDUSD

Markets continue to act out Trump's statement regarding his intention to increase import duties on Chinese goods this coming Friday, but no panic sales have been observed. The Shanghai Composite has adjusted upwards following yesterday's collapse, the growth in demand for gold is low, the yen weakens, the S&P 500 closed at 2932.47p, which is very close to its record high.

The Caixin Index (PMI) for the services sector in China rose in April to 54.5p instead of an expected decline, and if the publication on Wednesday of data on foreign trade does not show a negative trend, then the demand for risky assets could resume at least until Friday.

AUDUSD

The current week was seen as rather important for the AUD and NZD, since the central banks of both Australia and New Zealand are set to hold monetary policy meetings. The markets expected both of them to cut rates, since weak inflation data for Q1 in both countries would seem to leave no other way out.

However, the Bank of Australia made a surprise this morning, leaving the key rate unchanged at 1.5%. Noting the fact that the risks of the world economy are still shifting downward, the RBA highlighted the key, in its opinion, moments - bond yields are at record lows, GDP growth is expected to be at 2.75%, and even if the inflation dynamics looks negative , nevertheless, it gives hope for 2% by 2020, which in aggregate does not require any extraordinary measures.

The aussie increased following the RBA meeting, but this growth is unlikely to escalate into a long-term trend, since a number of key factors show an unpersuasive dynamic and, most likely, will still force the RBA to lower the rate at the next meeting. In particular, the negative dynamics of consumer lending, which showed a low result for 9.5 years in March, may indicate a drop in real incomes and, as a result, a decline in consumer demand.

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Despite the fact that business lending is still at good levels, the slowdown in real incomes is reflected in another sector, the construction sector. The PCI index in March fell to a 5-year low of 42.6p, that is, the construction sector is in a state of deep recession. Mortgage lending is at its lowest level in the entire history of observations, the latest data on consumer confidence also indicate a negative trend.

Given the general slowdown in the global economy and a sharp increase in risks for China, the chances of maintaining the current levels of foreign trade also look low. The AUDUSD will return to decline in the near future, growth to the border of the channel of 0.7130/50 is unlikely, or rather, the formation of a local low near current levels and a decline to a support of 0.6910/20 in the future for several days.

NZDUSD

A regular meeting of the RBNZ will be held today. The market consensus suggests a reduction in the rate from 1.75% to 1.5%, which puts pressure on the kiwi. At the same time, there are very few serious reasons for lowering the rate. The ANZ Bank sees neutral trends in the main indicators, such as GDP growth and unemployment, and risks are only declining in inflation.

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If for the US, the threat of recession looms in the medium term and is expected not earlier than next year, then the New Zealand economy may show a noticeable slowdown as early as August, most Asian banks adhere to this position - ANZ, Westpac, and even Scandinavian Nordea notes clear skepticism about the prospects for the kiwi. They all agree on the assessment of key threats to New Zealand - China's slowdown, the approaching reversal of stock markets and flight from risk, the threat of a slowdown in the labor market and, as a result, the loss of momentum for consumer price inflation.

After the March meeting of the RBNZ, the kiwi lost more than 3.5%, and if today the regulator is not satisfied with a surprise, following the example of its Australian colleague, then the decline will continue. A possible increase to the border of the channel of 0.6630/35 is logical to use for selling, the immediate goal is to support 0.6539 with the prospect of a decline to 0.6475.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for May 7

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the development of the local upward structure of May 3 is expected after the breakdown of 1.1220. For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the price is in the area of local initial conditions of May 3 and the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3189. For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the range of 1.0169 – 1.0153 is the key support for the top. For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the continuation of the development of the downward cycle of April 24 is expected after the breakdown of 110.30. For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the price is in the correction zone of the downward structure on May 1 and the level of 124.50 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound/Yen, the continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.73 and the level of 144.74 is the key support.

Forecast for May 7:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1313, 1.1271, 1.1256, 1.1220, 1.1171, 1.1147 and 1.1117. We follow the upward trend from April 25, as well as the formation of a local structure for the top of May 3. The resumption of the upward structure is possible after the breakdown of 1.1220. The first target is 1.1256. The passage of the price of the range of 1.1256 – 1.1271 will allow you to count on movement towards a potential target of 1.1313.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1171 – 1.1147 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to develop a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.1117.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 25, the formation of a local structure of May 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1220 Take profit: 1.1255

Buy 1.1271 Take profit: 1.1310

Sell: 1.1169 Take profit: 1.1147

Sell: 1.1145 Take profit: 1.1173

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For the currency pair Pound/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3318, 1.3247, 1.3222, 1.3185, 1.3103, 1.3074, 1.3030 and 1.2986. We follow the formation of the local structure of May 3rd. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3185. In this case, the target is 1.3222 and consolidation is near this level. The passage of the price of the range of 1.3222 – 1.3247 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the potential target of 1.3318, from which we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.3103 – 1.3074 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.3030 and this level is the key support for the local upward structure.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 25, the local structure of May 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3185 Take profit: 1.3222

Buy: 1.3247 Take profit: 1.3318

Sell: 1.3103 Take profit: 1.3075

Sell: 1.3072 Take profit: 1.3030

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For the currency pair Dollar/Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0264, 1.0242, 1.0227, 1.0205, 1.0182, 1.0169, 1.0153 and 1.0124. The price is in the zone of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of May 1. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0205. In this case, the target is 1.0227 and in the area of 1.0227 – 1.0242 is the price consolidation. We consider the level of 1.0264 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The range of 1.0169 – 1.0153 is the key support for the upward structure of May 1. Its price passage will have to form the initial conditions for the downward cycle. In this case, the first potential target is 1.0124.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of May 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0205 Take profit: 1.0227

Buy: 1.0242 Take profit: 1.0264

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 1.0150 Take profit: 1.0124

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For the currency pair Dollar/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 111.30, 111.07, 110.90, 110.49, 110.31, 109.92 and 109.70. We continue to monitor the downward structure of April 24. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 110.49 – 110.31 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 109.92. We consider the level of 109.70 to be a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 110.90 – 110.07 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 111.30 and this level is the key support for the downward structure of April 24.

The main trend is the downward structure of April 24, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.90 Take profit: 111.07

Buy: 111.09 Take profit: 111.30

Sell: 110.49 Take profit: 110.31

Sell: 110.28 Take profit: 109.92

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For the currency pair Canadian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3561, 1.3534, 1.3512, 1.3483, 1.3466, 1.3415, 1.3400 and 1.3375. We monitor the initial conditions for the top of May 1. At the moment, the price is near the key support (1.3415 – 1.3400) and the passage of this range will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3375. The continuation of the development of the upward structure is expected after the breakdown of 1.3466. In this case, the target is 1.3512 and in the area of 1.3512 – 1.3534 is the price consolidation. We consider the level of 1.3561 as a potential value for the top, upon reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of May 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3466 Take profit: 1.3512

Buy: 1.3514 Take profit: 1.3534

Sell: 1.3400 Take profit: 1.3377

Sell: Take profit:

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For the currency pair Australian Dollar/Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7068, 0.7003, 0.6984 and 0.6962. We expect the formation of the expressed initial conditions for the upward movement from May 6, which should occur to the level of 0.7068.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7003 – 0.6984, hence we expect a key reversal to the top, the breakdown of the level of 0.6984 will lead to the cancellation of the formation of the upward structure. In this case, the potential target is 0.6962.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of May 6.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: Take profit:

Buy: Take profit:

Sell: 0.7003 Take profit: 0.6986

Sell: 0.6982 Take profit: 0.6962

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For the currency pair Euro/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 124.50, 124.25, 124.05, 123.53, 123.29, 122.94 and 122.73. We follow the development of the downward structure of May 1. At the moment, the price is in the correction. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.53 – 123.29 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the target is 122.94. We consider the level of 122.73 as a potential value for the bottom, upon reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 124.05 – 124.25 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged movement. The target is 124.50 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of May 1, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 124.05 Take profit: 124.25

Buy: 124.30 Take profit: 124.50

Sell: 123.53 Take profit: 123.30

Sell: 123.25 Take profit: 122.94

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For the currency pair Pound/Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.63, 146.20, 146.00, 145.73, 145.07, 144.74, 144.42 and 143.89. We follow the development of the upward cycle of April 26. At the moment, the price is in the correction zone. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 145.73. In this case, the target is 146.00. The passage of the price of the range of 146.00 – 146.20 will lead to a movement to the potential target of 146.63, from this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom.

The range of 145.07 – 144.74 is the key support for the top and we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 144.74 will lead to the development of a downward structure of May 3. In this case, the first target is 144.42 and near this level is the consolidation. We consider the level of 143.89 as a potential value for the bottom, the expressed movement to which, we expect after the breakdown of 144.40.

The main trend is the upward structure of April 26, the stage of correction

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 145.75 Take profit: 146.00

Buy: 146.20 Take profit: 146.60

Sell: 145.04 Take profit: 144.80

Sell: 144.72 Take profit: 144.45

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The markets are waiting for Trump's decision on duties in relation to China (EURUSD - a likely increase in the pair, selling

Following the stock market's decline from yesterday, in the wake of the new-old threats by the US president to raise trade duties on Chinese exports, the markets calmed down somewhat, but still, as they say, left hanging in suspense.

Although investors believe that D. Trump's threats are just words, because too many opposing sides have invested their strength and financial resources in mutual trade relations, the risks of Trump's neurotic and perhaps even inadequate behavior can lead to a breakdown in negotiations and escalation of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, which will grow into a full-scale trade war.

In the foreign exchange market, a major role is now played by the continued dominance of the uncertainty factor in the wake of the Fed's position, which the regulator took at the end of its May meeting on monetary policy. The bank clearly made it clear that there would be no repetition of the quantitative easing program in the form in which it was after the acute phase of the 2008-09 crisis, but it signaled that it could proceed to a repo maneuver in the form of repos for commercial banks maintaining dollar liquidity in the financial system. Now this topic is being worked out.

The fact that the Fed is looking for a way out of the pit into which it drove itself and the national economy stimulating post-crisis actions, can be seen with the naked eye. It is looking for an opportunity to maintain the interest primarily of foreign investors in the US stock market, as it understands that if it falls – it can be a signal for selling, which will escalate into a collapse and ultimately into a new, probably even more severe financial crisis in the country as well as in the world.

That is why there is no specific dynamic in the currency market. Markets wait and hope, then become frustrated and hope again. This situation seems to last more than a month.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair is likely to remain in the range of 1.1125-1.1260, in anticipation of whether Trump's decision to increase duties for China will happen or not this week. If, from a technical point of view, the price stays above the level of 1.1200, it can continue to grow to 1.1265. At the same time, its decrease below this mark may lead to a local price fall to 1.1125.

The AUDUSD pair is approaching a strong resistance level of 0.7065. The pair could move down if the trade agreement between the United States and China fails, and this level stands. In this case, the pair could drop to 0.6965.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (May 7)

For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed low volatility of 38 points, as a result of having stagnation followed by exit. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a primary stagnation at the level of 1.1180, where the developed range was subsequently broken through, restoring the quote in the upstream plan. Informational and news background had retail sales statistics in Europe, where they waited for the decline from 3.0% to 1.8%. As a result, they received the same decrease, but with an indicator of 1.9%. The background information falls upon everybody's favorite Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May held a secret meeting with assistants and ministers, at which they discussed possible ways of holding a second Brexit referendum.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market, where growth is expected from 7.087M to 7.350M.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quotation is persistently trying to return to the recent point of resistance. However, there is still some awkwardness in the form of double-digit doji candles. It is likely to assume that many traders are targeting the values of 1.1232-50, but there is still a risk that the bumper will continue to 1.1180 / 1.1200.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term, there is an upward interest against the background of the recent jump and recovery.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 7 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 26 points. In the case of a continuation of the course, volatility can grow in the direction of the average daily indicator.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading recommendations for the currency pair GBPUSD - placement of trading orders (May 7)

Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility close to the average daily 89 points, as a result of reaching the predicted value. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the pullback that followed the impulse rally reached the predicted value of 1.3080, which reflected the earlier accumulation. Meanwhile, the level of 1.3080 kept the quotation, and after a brief stagnation, the recovery process began. On the other hand. the background information had another talk about Brexit, wherein Theresa May held a "secret" meeting with various assistants and ministers, at which they discussed possible ways to hold a second referendum on Brexit. At the so-called "secret" meeting, scenarios were developed for the cabinet's actions in case if the government fails to prevent a second referendum from voting in the House of Commons. If conservatives and Labor do not agree, and the House of Commons does not support the Prime Minister's plan, many parliamentarians will insist on raising the question of withdrawing from the EU for a repeat popular vote, said the Minister of Finance of the shadow Cabinet of labour John McDonnell.

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Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on the number of open vacancies in the US labor market, where growth is expected from 7.087M to 7.350M.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quote jumped to the value of 1.3130. The coordinates of which displays a cluster from April 9-15. Thus, it probably suggest temporary stagnation with a possible rebound to the pivot of 1.3080. In any case, traders are immediately considering a double operation. The first is considered as pending orders in the form of a clear price fixing higher than 1.3135, with a primary perspective to 1.3170-1.3180. The second theory is a looped course of 1.3050 / 1.3130, where work is conducted on low trading volumes, and the main volume is laid only if the price is fixed below 1.3080.

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Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that there is an upward interest against the background of the recent rally and the current recovery in the short, intraday and medium term.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(May 7 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 57 points. It is likely to assume that the volatility may increase in case of the breakdown of the value of 1.3130. Otherwise, there will be stagnation in the framework.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 **; 1.2920 * 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for May 6, 2019

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum after a break above $5,500. As a result, the price is trading at near the $6,000 resistance area currently.

Recently, the cryptomarket has been developing with massive investment that encouraged the overall bullish trend. Bitcoin is no exception. The most popular cryptocurrency is winning favor with investors that ensures its steady gains. Having lost over 80% of its peak value, Bitcoin's is following a steady rally which signals further upward pressure in the coming days.

According to recent reports, the daily volume of BTC transactions is approaching all-time highs of around $400,000 that was last recorded at the peak of the 2017 bubble. So, a similar transaction pattern is expected to boost the upcoming gains of Bitcoin. Traders should be aware of corrections and higher volatility in the crypto trading. Additionally, relevant news websites report that mining activity has growing rapidly.

To sum it up, the price has been making corrections close to the important price area of $6,000. Though the trend is clear-cut bullish, recently the price formed Bearish Regular Divergence which might trigger a correctional decline towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA i.e. at $5,500 before it climbs up higher again aming to break above $6,000 and touch the next milestone at $8,500.

SUPPORT: 5,000, 5,250, 5,500

RESISTANCE: 6,000, 6,300, 6,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com