Technical Analysis for EUR/USD for September 26, 2019

analytics5d8c61d991970.jpg

Technical outlook:

EURUSD seems to have finally terminated the proposed wave ii, within wave (iii) at 1.0937. The above video transcript highlights price action since beginning of this week, and another update shall be followed soon. Please note that 1.0927 remains intact which keeps the bullish count valid. The channel line seen here has provided the necessary support it seems and a push beyond immediate resistance at 1.1024 would confirm that a meaningful low is in place. The wave structure still remains constructive for bulls with wave (iii) progressing towards 1.1185 and higher. It is too early to confirm but EUR/USD has potential to push through 1.1450 and towards 1.1800, 1.2000 levels. Trading point of view, longs are favored against 1.0927.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0927, target is 1.1185.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on September 26, 2019 for the EUR / USD currency pair

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Thursday, a downward movement with the target of 1.0925 is possible - the lower fractal (black dashed line). By reaching this level, most likely we will rollback up with the target of 1.0972 - pullback level 23.6% (blue dashed line).

analytics5d8c618ca35a3.png

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger Lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, an upward movement is not possible.

An unlikely scenario - breaking down the lower fractal of 1.0925 - lower fractal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD on 09/26/2019

analytics5d8c5a13a0313.jpg

On Wednesday, September 25, for the first time in a long time, there was an attempt to start a general trend in currencies – this time against the dollar. Together against the dollar, all the major pairs moved – the euro, the pound, the franc, and the yen.

On Thursday morning, we see a rebound of the euro from the key low of 1.0925.

Now, everything depends on the way forward: either the euro will break down 1.0925 and consolidate below – or there will be a return to levels above 1.1000.

We keep sales from 1.0990 stop 1.1025.

We sell from 1.0925.

We buy at the breakout of 1.1025.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of GBP/USD on September 26th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The British Parliament resumed its

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d8c49da80f50.png

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -140.3389

Boris Johnson's illegal prorogation of Parliament ended on September 25. This is another victory for the opposition, led by Jeremy Corbyn, but the pound has ceased to respond positively to these local victories. After all, by and large, "things are still there." Yes, parliamentarians have resumed their work, now they can again control the actions of the Prime Minister, "put sticks in his wheels" and influence his decisions. However, what has changed in the context of Brexit in recent weeks? Nothing. Johnson is not going to resign (who would doubt), despite the furious calls of Jeremy Corbyn and other opposition deputies. Moreover, the Prime Minister believes that the decision of the Supreme Court is wrong and does not agree with him. The opposition's hands are still tied, as the deputies cannot remove Johnson from his post. Brexit seems to be delayed, but Johnson did not ask for an official delay from EU leaders and continues to say that it will be implemented on October 31 and there will be no new postponements of this date. An unprecedented situation. Utter political chaos.

In such a situation, it would be logical to hold re-elections to Parliament, but both sides want and fear them at the same time. There's too much at stake. Boris Johnson wants to hold re-election, hoping to strengthen the forces of the ruling party, that is, the conservatives. If that happens, the opposition will become weaker, and it will be harder to resist Johnson's decisions. The opposition is afraid of this. Johnson, though promoting the idea of early elections, also understands that in two months as Prime Minister, he suffered at least five defeats, and how many victories he won? By our count, 0. It is not possible to agree with Brussels. "Push" Brexit through Parliament failed. The prorogation was overturned by the Supreme Court. In such a situation, the ratings of the Conservative Party could be reduced. After all, no one knows what the result of the re-election will be if, for example, they are held tomorrow. All sociological studies conducted on 2-3 thousand people cannot reflect the real picture of things. They only show the mood of the electorate with a certain degree of probability. Thus, re-elections could resolve differences in Parliament, but both sides are afraid of them. Also, it is impossible to exclude the option in which neither the Laborites nor the Conservatives will be able to gain more parliamentary seats than they currently have. In this case, the re-election will be just a formality and a waste of time.

Traders just have to watch what is happening and react. Now, the pound began to adjust after a few weeks of growth, as the UK currency does not have a fundamental recharge. Thus, it will be possible to return to purchases of the British currency after the reverse consolidation of traders above the moving average line.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2360

S2 – 1.2329

S3 – 1.2299

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2390

R2 – 1.2421

R3 – 1.2451

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair fixed below the moving average. Thus, traders are advised to buy the US currency with targets of 1.2329 and 1.2268. Short positions are relevant until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. Mark Carney, Chairman of the Bank of England, is scheduled to speak today.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 09/26/2019 and a trading recommendation

It is safe to say that the information background was extremely rich in scandalous news yesterday. Here you have a continuation of the epic with Brexit, and a new attempt by the Democrats to impeach Donald Trump. Messages from both sides of the Atlantic were flooded with all the news feeds, overshadowing absolutely everything else that was going on in the world. And when such hype occurs, the markets are in a fever. Moreover, both news backgrounds are purely negative, both for the UK and the United States.

analytics5d8c618d79844.png

Everything is quite simple in theory. Since everything is so sad in the United States, the dollar should have become cheaper. However, not everything is simple. After all, its growth in relation to the pound is quite understandable, since things are even worse in the United Kingdom itself. But here the growth of the dollar against the single European currency, does not fit into this scheme. But if we look at data on sales of new homes in the United States, which showed growth not by 3.5%, but by 7.1%, then much becomes clear. Investors were so overwhelmed by the information background that at some point they had already stopped paying attention to it. Moreover, to some extent, the incoming news offset each other. So to say, the result is zero. Everywhere is bad and scary. So, investors gave preference to the real state of affairs in the economy, which immediately affected the value of the dollar.

New Home Sales (USA):

analytics5d8c61afd2b6f.png

Of course, the information background will not go anywhere today. It even get stronger. But following the example of yesterday, investors will ignore it. Moreover, today the final data on the United States GDP for the second quarter are published, which should confirm the fact of a slowdown in economic growth from 2.7% to 2.3%. Although everyone has long been ready for this, since this is what preliminary data showed, a statement of fact will lead to the resumption of talk about an approaching recession. The argument will be just a slowdown in economic growth, which indicates a similar development. In this regard, the hysteria surrounding another attempt to impeach Donald Trump will only increase the negative impact on the dollar. However, one should not exclude the possibility of a complete triumph of the incumbent president of the United States, in the form of a complete failure of the Democrats, to even raise the issue of impeachment for consideration by Congress. In this case, investors are clearly more likely to buy dollars than sell.

GDP growth rate (USA):

analytics5d8c62faa4560.png

The EUR/USD pair was no longer able to show restrained market interest and the previous day was reflected as an impulse - inertial move, returning the quote to the area of the main support point of 1.0926. Considering what is happening in general terms, we see that the recent correctional move is one step away from closure, but it is too early to say that the three-week holding oscillation has fallen into existence. It is worth waiting for a clear consolidation of the price below 1.0926, while maintaining the inertial motion.

It is likely to assume that it will be extremely volatile today, due to the massive information and news background, where I do not exclude the possibility that movement will be either up or down, depending on the incoming information. If we consider the downward course, it is better to wait for a clear consolidation of prices below 1.0926, before laying down further trading operations.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

• Long positions, can be considered as local bursts in case of a move higher than 1.0970.

• We consider short positions in case of price consolidation lower than 1.0926, while maintaining the inertial speed.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that against the backdrop of a recent surge in quotations, indicators at all the main time intervals signal a further downward trend. In case of spontaneous jumps amid the flow of information, indicator analysis will temporarily cease to be relevant.

analytics5d8c630e69ffe.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of EUR/USD on September 26th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". Why the US currency is strengthening

4-hour timeframe

analytics5d8c438b4e82f.png

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -123.3835

In yesterday's morning article, we wrote that Wednesday is a great day to understand what is the true mood of traders regarding the EUR/USD pair. No macroeconomic publications were planned for this day, so the flat could indicate that market participants are waiting for news and are not ready to "rush into battle" without new fundamental information. However, in reality, the US dollar rose again, and the euro/dollar pair fell to two-year lows for the third time. Thus, from our point of view, this moment perfectly shows that the mood of traders remains frankly bearish. Based on yesterday's fall, we can expect it to continue today and tomorrow either immediately or after a slight upward correction. Of course, several factors speak in favor of the possible growth of the pair. For example, the pattern "triple bottom", which is imperceptibly formed from the pattern "double bottom". For example, a rebound from the level of 1.0940. But most trend indicators are still pointing downwards.

As for the number 1 topic of the last days – a possible impeachment of Donald Trump – it is certainly interesting, but, as we see, it does not have a special impact on the pair. Yesterday, when it became known about the beginning of this procedure and the investigation against Trump, the dollar continued to grow, as if nothing had happened. Although a more logical reaction of the market to such a serious and important procedure against the US President would be the sale of the dollar. Thus, traders continue to pay more attention to economic indicators and actions (statements) of the US and EU regulators.

On Thursday, September 26, several macroeconomic reports and a speech by Mario Draghi are planned. The index of spending on personal consumption, the annual GDP data for the second quarter in the US – something that traders will pay attention to today. Although the big question arises, do traders need new strong data from America to continue buying the dollar? The main thing is that the balance between the rates of the ECB and the Fed remained in favor of the latter, and the US economic data in the aggregate is stronger than the European ones. As for Mario Draghi's performance, everything is obvious. When was the last time Mario Draghi delighted the markets? When was the last time the rhetoric of the head of the ECB was at least "neutral"? Today, with a probability of 90%, Draghi's speech will consist of his "fears", weak forecasts, words about recession and low inflation. That is, in the best case for the euro, Draghi should not touch on the topic of monetary policy and the economy of the European Union. Otherwise, traders will get new grounds for purchases of the US currency.

The technical picture shows the continuation of the downward trend, but now an upward correction is possible, as traders failed to overcome the support area of 1.0940 – 1.0926 for the third time. The color of 1-2 bars of the Heiken Ashi indicator in purple will indicate the beginning of the correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.0956

S2 – 1.0925

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1017

R3 – 1.1047

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair resumed its downward movement, but today it may begin to adjust. Thus, it is recommended to either remain in sales with the target of 1.0925 until the Heiken Ashi turns up or to open a new sell position after the correction is completed.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: plan for the European session on September 26. The British Parliament resumed work, which only strengthened internal

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The British pound continued to decline against the US dollar after the British Parliament resumed its work, which intensified domestic political differences. Today, pound buyers will try to maintain the level of 1.2331, the test of which, together with the divergence, which is now being formed on the MACD indicator, will be the first signal to open long positions in the expectation of a return to resistance at 1.2413. A more important task for the bulls will be to break and consolidate above this range, which will lead to a breakdown of the downward trend and a test of a high of 1.2479, where I recommend taking profits. If the fall of GBP/USD continues further, then it is best to count on new long positions on a rebound from the lows of 1.2284 and 1.2238.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers will try to reach the pair in the morning to a support of 1.2331, below which the fall may be limited by divergence on the MACD indicator. A more optimal scenario would be the sale of the pound after an upward correction to the resistance area of 1.2413, or short positions can be opened immediately for a rebound from the high of 1.2479. All attention today will be focused on data on the US economy, which will lead to returning the pressure on the pound, as well as on the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who may take a softer position in the current political and economic realities, which will further weaken the British pound and lead to update the lows 1.2284 and 1.2238, where I recommend taking profits.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bear market in the short term.

Bollinger bands

If the pound drops in the morning, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.2331, while growth will be limited by the upper level at 1.2398.

analytics5d8c57d34ffd9.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Battleground at Congress: Impeachment prospects under big question

The dollar index reached a local maximum yesterday, reaching 98.659. Interest in the US currency has grown significantly throughout the market amid a political scandal in the United States. Greenback took advantage of the "security island" status again using the period of increased uncertainty to his advantage. But despite the general offensive of dollar bulls, the EUR/USD pair could not overcome the support level of 1.0950. To be more precise, the sellers impulsively sold this target, however, they again failed to gain a foothold below it. During the Asian session, the pair showed a weak correction, indicating the fading of the southern impulse. Also, the topic of impeachment will also fade soon from my personal standpoint in the light of the transcript of a telephone conversation published yesterday between Trump and Zelensky.

The disclosed transcript of the conversation between the leaders of the two powers had an ambiguous effect in the context of the prospects for the impeachment procedure. On the one hand, Donald Trump did mention Biden and his son, who "did business" in Ukraine. The head of the White House unambiguously determined his intentions, asking Zelensky "for a favor" regarding the resumption of the criminal investigation, which was "hushed up" by Joe Biden with the help of the previous Ukrainian leadership. This fact can be interpreted as pressure and use of power for one's personal political gain.

analytics5d8c33a535c9c.jpg

However, many experts doubt that the published transcript will indeed lead to the resignation of the US president. The fact is that initially this situation was presented much more severely: according to the American press, Trump openly blackmailed the Ukrainian president, forcing him to open criminal proceedings against Biden's son in return for providing military assistance. But in fact, the head of the American state approached this issue quite subtly. First of all, in a conversation with Zelensky, he accused Biden that he was the one who exerted pressure on the previous Ukrainian authorities. The Prosecutor General was dismissed from his filing and his successor closed the criminal case against Hunter Biden. In this context, Trump told his Ukrainian counterpart that "many would like to know more about this situation," while asking him to "sort out the situation." In this case, not a word about the provision (or non-provision of military assistance) was given, keeping in mind the topic under discussion is not in the transcript.

Given this fact, many experts doubted that the Democrats would build such a powerful accusation on the basis of this transcript that would allow them to go through all stages of the impeachment procedure. The reaction of American politicians to the published transcript of the conversation is expectedly different depending on their party affiliation. Representatives of the Democrats called Trump's actions "mafia blackmail", continuing to demand his resignation. Hillary Clinton, who was his main competitor in 2016, called him "a traitor to the country."

But for the most part, the Republicans began to defend their party member. The most influential representatives of the party said that the Democrats were ahead of the events by starting the impeachment procedure without waiting for the transcript. Now, they are forced to escalate the situation, justifying their rash actions. Although in fact, according to the Republicans, there was nothing seditious in the conversation between the two leaders and above all, there was no "quid pro quo" (service for service). In light of the impeachment procedure, this is a key fact. One can treat the ethical side of the issue differently, but from a legal point of view, Trump did not violate a single point of any American law in the conversation, according to party bonuses.

In light of the upcoming US presidential election, there is no doubt that the Democrats are using this situation for their political goals. However, this situation may ultimately turn against them if they do not bring the impeachment procedure to its logical conclusion (and, apparently, this will happen). This is not the first time that Democrats have raised the issue of Trump's resignation, and each time they are defeated, not finding relevant evidence of the president's illegal actions. Another failure will consolidate their reputation as "witch hunters", and this fact will negatively affect the rating of both the Democratic Party itself and the rating of their presidential candidate. Given this nuance, one can assume that Democrats will continue to press for an investigation and impeachment of Donald Trump, with markets booming.

analytics5d8c338e6e49d.jpg

The euro-dollar pair is still moving in the wake of political events in the United States. The last time the official impeachment procedure was launched in Congress against Bill Clinton (the story of Monica Lewinsky). Ao the very fact of this move caused some turbulence in markets, but as soon as the market comes to the conclusion that this procedure is unpromising, traders will switch to other fundamental factors. At the forefront of events, there will again be rumors around the prospects of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it is still necessary to monitor the support level of 1.0950 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). Once again, the bears of the pair failed to break this level, succumbing to the onslaught of buyers. Therefore, in this price area, one can consider long positions with the aim of corrective growth in the region of 1.1020 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands is on the same timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on September 26. A test level of 1.0930 may return new euro buyers to the market.

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Following the publication of yesterday's transcript of a telephone conversation between Trump and Zelensky, the likelihood of impeachment to the American president has significantly weakened. Today, buyers of the euro will focus on the release of a number of important fundamental statistics for the United States, as well as on the speech of the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. Most likely the bulls will show themselves after updating the support level in the area of 1.0930. The formation of a false breakdown there, together with the divergence on the MACD indicator, which is now being formed, will be the first signal to open long positions, the target of which will be the resistance of 1.0984. Only after consolidating above this level can we expect a larger growth in the area of yesterday's high at 1.1022, where I recommend taking profits. If the bears continue to put pressure on the market, using good statistics for the US, then it is best to return to long positions to rebound from lows of 1.0900 and 1.0873.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Today, sellers will clearly be less active before the release of data on the state of the US economy and the labor market. Most likely, in the first half of the day, the bears will try to reach a major support around 1.0930, however, to expect the continuation of a downward correction from there is unlikely to be the right decision. It is best to look for short positions after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of large resistance at 1.0984, or sell the euro immediately for a rebound from a high of 1.1022. If the bears manage to break below the low of 1.0930, and this can happen only after the speech of the president of the European Central Bank, who announces the high likelihood of new measures to ease monetary policy, the pressure on the euro will increase even more, which will lead to a test of the area of 1.0900 and 1.0873. where I recommend taking profits.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the event of EUR/USD decline in the morning, support will be provided by the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.0930, while upward movement will be limited by the upper level of the indicator at 1.0984.

analytics5d8c55bcef8eb.png

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: Fast EMA 12, Slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of ETH/USD for 26/09/2019

Crypto Industry News:

The U.S. Prosecutor's Office for the Northern District of California accused two suspects - Elliot Gunton and Anthony Tyler Nashatka - of hacking EtherDelta, the non-isolation Ethereum ERC-20 token trading market, on December 2017.

According to documents originally submitted on August 13, Ganton and Nashatka changed the settings of the EtherDelta domain name system to mislead users and collect their cryptographic addresses, private keys and withdraw funds.

The suspects were able to access the settings using the telephone number of one of the EtherDelta employees and used it to hack his email address. Then Gunton and Nashatka reportedly changed the parameters of the domain system to redirect traffic from EtherDelta to a fake website reminiscent of a real EtherDelta platform.

Visitors to this fake site were able to reveal their private keys and potentially lose cryptocurrency resources. According to the prosecutor's office, one EtherDelt user lost at least $ 800,000. The total amount of funds stolen was not disclosed in the court document.

Technical Market Overview:

The ETH/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range after a shallow bounce from the level of $151.85. This price action means the corrective cycle in wave 2 is still developing and the market participants should be ready for lower prices. The current Elliott wave scenario is still bearish because the wave (C) of the wave Z of the higher degree has not been completed yet. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $162.78 and the key technical support is seen at the level of $151.85. On the other hand, the nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $174.90.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $261.09

WR2 - $242.26

WR1 - $225.12

Weekly Pivot - $205.85

WS1 - $188.31

WS2 - $169.05

WS3 - $152.55

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

analytics5d8c4f8ed5160.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of BTC/USD for 26/09/201

Crypto Industry News:

By early 2020, Bitcoin payment support will be launched at more than 25,000 sales outlets for 30 French retailers, including the sports giant Decathlon and the Sephora cosmetics store. The French cryptocurrency news portal Cryptoglobe announced the progress announced during the Paris Retail Week.

The new cryptocurrency payment system is launched as part of a partnership between the Global POS point of sale technology provider, the EasyWallet application and the Easy2Play payment platform. While payments will be made in Bitcoin, the funds will be automatically converted into euros at the time of sale.

Conversion services are to be provided by two partners, Deskoin and Savitar, who are currently applying for the accreditation of a digital service provider under the French PACTE Act.

In addition to Decathlon and Sephora, well-known companies joining the initiative include Boulanger, Foot Locker, World House, Intersport, Cultura, Maisons du Monde and Norauto.

"This is an important symbolic step in the evolution of payment methods in France. However, it is also more than a symbol, because what we provide for 25,000 sales points is the possibility of entering the world of Economy 3.0 safely," said Stephane Djiane, CEO and founder of Global POS.

Technical Market Overview:

The BTC/USD pair is still trading below the nearest technical resistance located at the level of $9,046. Despite the bounce from the low at the level of $7,935 the market is starting to turn down again. The recent spike down is a part of the wave (C) development but it has not been completed yet, so there might be another low blow the level of $7,935. The nearest technical support is located at the level of $8,102 and $8,379.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,109

WR2 - $10,706

WR1 - $10,333

Weekly Pivot - $9,939

WS1 - $9,560

WS2 - $9,159

WS3 - $8,757

Trading recommendations:

Due to the short-term impulsive scenario invalidation, the best strategy in the current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is still up. All the shorter timeframe moves are still being treated as a counter-trend correction inside of the uptrend. When the wave 2 corrective cycles are completed, the market might will ready for another impulsive wave up of a higher degree and uptrend continuation.

analytics5d8c4eade252a.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones USDCHF 09/26/19

Today's work will involve finding favorable prices for purchasing the instrument, as yesterday's test WCZ 1/2 -0.9861-0.9849 led to a strong increase in demand. The probability of further growth is 70%. The first target of the bullish momentum is the high of September.

analytics5d8c51a0aa95f.png

It will be possible to consider options for reducing if today's closure of the US session occurs below the WCZ 1/2.

An alternative model has a probability below 30%, which makes it auxiliary. For its implementation, closing of today's trading below the level of 0.9849 will be required. Since demand was received yesterday, which led to the formation of absorption on the daily timeframe, it is not profitable to consider sales from current levels.

analytics5d8c51b74d9af.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of GBPUSD for 26/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD pair has made another corrective wave down towards the level of 1.2381 and broke below it. The local low was made at the level of 1.2345 (38% Fibonacci retracement), which is below the technical support at the level of 1.2353. The next target for bears is the next technical support located at the level of 1.2308, which is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up. The short-term outlook is still positive for bulls as this move down still looks corrective. The larger timeframe trend remains down.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2753

WR2 - 1.2662

WR1 - 1.2561

Weekly Pivot - 1.2479

WS1 - 1.2378

WS2 - 1.2291

WS3 - 1.2188

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. In order to reverse the trend from down to up, the key level for bulls is seen at 1.2505 and it must be clearly violated. As long as the price is trading below this level, the downtrend continues towards the level of 1.2000 and below.

analytics5d8c4d6a562d8.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 26/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is about to hit the level of 1.0926 after the local technical supports located at the levels of 1.0978 and 1.0964 had been violated. The key technical support is located at the level of 1.0926 and if violated, then the impulsive wave scenario will be invalidated. Please notice, the market conditions are now close to become oversold, but the RSI is weak and negative, which supports the short-term bearish scenario. The larger timeframe chart is still bearish.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1151

WR2 - 1.1121

WR1 - 1.1056

Weekly Pivot - 1.1026

WS1 - 1.0965

WS2 - 1.0930

WS3 - 1.0867

Trading recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0926 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1267.

analytics5d8c4c253535e.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EURUSD for September 26, 2019

analytics5d8c427f4c910.jpg

Technical outlook:

EURUSD seems to have finally terminated the proposed wave ii, within wave (iii) at 1.0937. The above video transcript highlights price action beginning of this week, and another update shall be followed soon. Please note that 1.0927 remains intact which keeps the bullish count valid. The channel line seen here has provided the necessary support it seems and a push beyond immediate resistance at 1.1024 would confirm that a meaningful low is in place. The wave structure still remains constructive for bulls with wave (iii) progressing towards 1.1185 and higher. It is too early to confirm but EURUSD has potential to push through 1.1450 and towards 1.1800, 1.2000 levels. Trading point of view, longs are favored against 1.0927.

Trading plan:

Remain long against 1.0927, target is 1.1185.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 26 - 2019

analytics5d8c43eb03cac.png

GBP/JPY continues to lower in red wave c of red wave ii just as we expected. The ideal target for red wave c is near 130.78 from where the next impulsive rally in red wave iii should begin. That said, we will see solid support near 132.10, which could spark a short-term rally back to 133.51 before the next downside attempt should be expected. A break below the solid support at 132.10 will be very supportive of our expectation of a dip to our ideal target at 130.78.

Only a direct break above short-term key-resistance at 134.61 will indicate that the correction in red wave ii has completed prematurely and red wave iii higher to 139.20 already is unfolding.

R3: 134.61

R2: 134.05

R1: 133.51

Pivot: 132.82

S1: 132.10

S2: 131.45

S3: 130.78

Trading recommendation:

We are looking to buy GBP near 131.25 or upon a break above 134.61

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 26 - 2019

analytics5d8c41e46275c.png

After a day trading in a very narrow band between 117.80 - 118.01 we must wait patiently whether a break above short-term resistance at 118.56 is seen. Indicating that the correction in red wave ii is complete and a new impulsive rally is ready to develop for a move higher to at least 121.98 or a break below short-term important support at 117.54 is seen for a final dip closer to 117.15 to complete red wave ii and set the stage for a new impulsive rally in red wave iii towards at least 121.98.

Thus, we should wait for the next impulsive rally to start.

R3: 118.79

R2: 118.56

R1: 118.35

Pivot: 118.21

S1: 118.07

S2: 117.72

S3: 117.54

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 118.25 with our stop placed at 117.50

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday Level For EUR/USD, September 26,2019

analytics5d8c1ee1a6fa3.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic data such as Private Loans y/y, M3 Money Supply y/y, and German Import Prices m/m will be released. The US will publish such economic data as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So, amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1005. Strong Resistance:1.0999. Original Resistance: 1.0988. Inner Sell Area: 1.0977. Target Inner Area: 1.0952. Inner Buy Area: 1.0927. Original Support: 1.0916. Strong Support: 1.0905. Breakout SELL Level: 1.0899. (Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis: Important intraday level for USD/JPY, September 26,2019

analytics5d8c1e8c76ca9.jpg

Today, Japan will not release any economic data but the US will release some economic data such as Natural Gas Storage, Pending Home Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, Goods Trade Balance, Final GDP Price Index q/q, and Final GDP q/q. So, there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with low to medium volatility during this day.TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3:108.25. Resistance. 2:108.04. Resistance. 1:107.83. Support. 1:107.57. Support. 2:107.36. Support. 3:107.15. (Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 26, 2019

EUR/USD

The euro fell 77 points on Wednesday, more than the decline of the 16th after the drone attack in Saudi Arabia and more than the growth of the 17th due to the buyback of the euro before the Fed meeting the next day. A week and a half ago, we said that the euro was being redeemed against the ECB's decision on monetary policy by American players, presumably in order to maintain control over the situation in their hands. Yesterday, according to dealers, the stop loss of buyers in the range of 1.0960-80 was knocked out, which now confirms our early calculations. Media reports say that the dollar strengthened on investors' (suddenly awakened) fears about the intensification of the global crisis. This is also partly true, since sales of new homes in the United States in August jumped from 666 thousand in July (revised from 635 thousand) to the highest since December last year, 713 thousand. It is almost obvious that the world crisis will reach the United States last.

The final estimate of US GDP for the second quarter will be published today. Now, to strengthen the dollar, it is enough that the indicator is no worse than expectations and a preliminary estimate of 2.0%.

analytics5d8c4a84af66a.png

On the daily chart, the situation has finally formed for the euro to fall; overcoming the support of 1.0926 will send the euro to the target range of 1.0805/45, formed by the support of the price channel and the Fibonacci level of 161.8%.

analytics5d8c4a9a8b0ee.png

On the four-hour chart, there is also a downward local trend - the price is below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD / JPY pair on September 26, 2019

USD / JPY pair

In the latest review on the yen, we wrote the following: "If there are any other disturbing geopolitical news, then we can work out a bearish goal of 107.22. There may also be some price reduction without fixing it on a day-long scale." That's how it happened - on the news of Donald Trump's upcoming impeachment, the price pierced the green-channel support, and then on the day after, yesterday, it increased by 70 points. We cited this reference to the previous forecast in order to confirm our commitment to the rising scenario as the main one.

analytics5d8c2fdd3f3d4.png

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator turned upward almost from the border with the growth territory. This dividing line (0.00) is the support/resistance of the indicator with the immediate target open to 108.26. Overcoming the red line of the price channel at 108.26 opens the second target on the next line to 109.10.

analytics5d8c2ff7219c9.png

On a four-hour scale, the price is still below the balance lines (indicator red) and MACD (blue), while Marlin is already in the growth zone, which increases the likelihood of the price going over the resistance on the indicator. But until the price actually fixes above the MACD line of 108.00, there is still the possibility of another price attack to break through the green line of the price channel and further decline to the MACD line on the daily chart towards the price of 106.50.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 26, 2019

GBP/USD

On Wednesday, the British pound with all its might fell on the support of 1.2381 (July 17 low), exactly from it the highest trading volumes were recorded, which indicates the closure of stop losses. The breakthrough was associated with the unwillingness of the British MPs to discuss the Brexit plan in a constructive way.

analytics5d8c48d1e097f.png

On the daily chart, the target opened at the Fibonacci level of 223.6% at the price of 1.2230. A little lower is the blue line of MACD, overcoming which will launch a medium-term decline. But for now, even in the context of the growth scenario, the price has a margin of decline of almost 200 points.

analytics5d8c48e6e6a53.png

On a four-hour chart, the price has consolidated below the indicator lines of balance and MACD, the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. There are no reversal patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

#USDX vs EUR / USD vs GBP / USD vs USD / JPY - H4. Comprehensive analysis of movement options from September 26, 2019 APLs

Let me bring to your attention, in an integrated form, the development options for the movement of currency instruments #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY from September 26, 2019.

Minuette operational scale (H4 time frame)

____________________

US dollar index

Further development of the movement of the dollar index #USDX from September 26, 2019 will be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (99.00 - 98.80 - 98.60) of the Minuete operational scale fork. Look at the animated chart for the development of the above levels.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 99.00) of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the option to continue the development of the upward movement of the dollar index to targets - warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (99.15) - local maximum 99.37 - warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (99.52).

On the contrary, if there is a breakdown of support level 98.60 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel of the Minuette operational scale fork, then the downward movement #USDX will be directed to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel ( 98.30 - 98.20 - 98.05) of the Minuette operational scale fork with the prospect of reaching the final Schiff Line Minuette (97.90).

The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the animated chart.

analytics5d8b9132b347d.jpg

____________________

Euro vs US dollar

Starting from September 26, 2019, the movement of the single European currency EUR / USD will also be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1000 - 1.0970 - 1.0945) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The movement markings inside the mentioned channel are shown in the animated chart.

In case of breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (support level of 1.0945) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the downward movement of the single European currency can be continued towards the targets - local minimum 1.0927 - warning line LWL61.8 Minuette (1.0880).

A combined breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (resistance level of 1.1000) and the initial SSL line (1.1005) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make the development of the upward movement of EUR / USD to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.1050 - 1.1070 - 1.1095) of the Minuette operating scale, relevant

The details of the EUR / USD movement options are shown in the animated chart.

analytics5d8b91506f8ea.jpg

____________________

Great Britain pound vs US dollar

Meanwhile, the development of Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency movement from September 26, 2019 will also be due to the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2480 - 1.2420 - 1.2375) of the Minuette operational scale fork - the traffic markings in the 1/2 Median Line channel are presented in the animated graphics.

In case of breakdown of the support level of 1.2375 on the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel, Her Majesty's currency movement will continue to the equilibrium zone (1.2315 - 1.2240 - 1.2160) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

On the contrary, in case of breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line channel (1.2480) of the Minuette operational scale fork, the GBP / USD movement will continue in the equilibrium zone (1.2420 - 1.2570 - 1.2715) of the Minuette operational scale fork taking into account the development - of the Median Line Minuette (1.2570) - local maximum 1.2582 - control line UTL Minuette (1.2650) and warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (1.2695).

The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the animated chart.

analytics5d8b9176779bb.jpg

____________________

US dollar vs Japanese yen

Starting from September 26, 2019, the movement of the currency of the "land of the rising sun" USD / JPY will also depend on the development and direction of the breakdown of the 1/2 Median Line channel (107.60 - 107.30 - 106.90) of the Minuette operational scale fork. Look at the animated chart for the details of the movement.

The breakdown of the upper boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (resistance level of 107.60) will determine the continued development of the upward movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to the initial SSL line (108.30) of the Minuette operational scale forks with the prospect of updating the local maximum of 108.48 and reaching the UTL Minuette control line (108.80).

The breakdown of the lower boundary of the 1/2 Median Line Minuette channel (support level of 106.90) - an option for the development of the USD / JPY movement towards the targets - the upper boundary of the ISL38.2 (106.60) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - the lower boundary of the ISL38.2 (106.40) equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - 1/2 Median line Minuette (106.00).

We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement on the animated chart.

analytics5d8b9198b4271.jpg

____________________

The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").

The formula for calculating the dollar index :

USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.

where the power coefficients correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:

Euro - 57.6% ;

Yen - 13.6% ;

Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;

Canadian dollar - 9.1%;

Swedish Krona - 4.2%;

Swiss franc - 3.6%.

The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com