AUD/USD: traders didn't believe RBA

The controversial rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia disappointed AUD/USD traders, but the pair bears failed to break through the key support level of 0.7000. On the eve of the April meeting of the RBA, the market was overwhelmed by "dovish" expectations, so the relative restraint (and even a certain optimism) of the regulator did not allow sellers to launch a large-scale southern offensive.

The Australian Central Bank did not repeat the rhetoric of its "neighbors" from the RBNZ, whose members actually announced a reduction in the interest rate this year. Philip Lowe kept his waiting position, trying to dispel the fears of many traders. Moreover, the head of the RBA even voiced optimistic estimates regarding the dynamics of the labor market. According to him, the Central Bank expects a further decline in unemployment and rising wages, and as a result – inflation. While Lowe acknowledged that growth would be more gradual, he remained optimistic.

In addition, the head of the Australian regulator did not dramatize the situation with respect to the latest releases. Let me remind you that Australia's GDP in the last quarter of last year grew by only 2.3% in annual terms after the previous growth of 2.7% in the third quarter. RBA economists had expected this figure at 3.4%, so in January they revised their forecast for the current year. Compared to the previous three months, the country's economy grew by 0.2% after an increase of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2018. The PMI industrial activity index in Australian industry also slowed down quite noticeably, falling to a one-and-a-half year low of 52 points.

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However, the Australian Central Bank, despite such trends, "kept cool." According to Lowe, the global financial environment is still favorable, as are the prospects for the global economy. Naturally, Low recognized that the dynamics of global economic growth slowed against the background of increased risks (here he lamented the deterioration of the investment climate), but in his opinion, the situation is far from critical.

It is likely that the head of the RBA was inspired by the latest news from the "front" of the US-China talks, which will continue this week in Washington. On the eve of this event, China took several friendly steps that indicate Beijing's intention to still find a common denominator with the States. First, the Chinese did not resume the action of retaliatory sanctions (although the "pause" expired in April), and secondly, at the legislative level, the synthetic substance fentanyl was completely banned — which the Americans had insisted on for so long. Such actions by the Celestial Empire again increased the likelihood of a trade transaction, and this fact affected the general mood of the markets. The Australian dollar reacts most acutely to such events, so yesterday the pair AUD/USD tested the 71st figure again, but the results of the April meeting of the RBA unfolded the price 180 degrees.

What is the reason for the southern trend "Aussie", against the background of a relatively quiet meeting of the Australian Central Bank in April? In my opinion, the market is still confident that the regulator will be forced to lower the interest rate in the second half of the year. Following yesterday's meeting, some experts even set an approximate date for such a move – September of this year.

After all, behind the screen of calm and balanced assessments lies the main conclusion: economic growth and inflation still do not justify the forecasts of the RBA. And given the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the key macro indicators of the European Union and even the United States, we cannot expect a sharp economic breakthrough in Australia. Of course, the Australian Reserve Bank was much more "courteous" with the market than the New Zealand regulator – but the essence of the main message does not change. The issue of easing the monetary policy of the RBA has not been removed from the agenda, and this fact will put background pressure on the Australian dollar.

On the other hand, the lack of clear intentions and the exponentially wait-and-see position of the Central Bank of Australia keeps the pair AUD/USD afloat, that is, above the key support level of 0.7000. As a result, "Aussie" was stuck in a flat, the range of which narrowed down to price limits of 0.7030-0.7150. It is possible to break through this blockade only with the help of external fundamental factors, primarily due to the results of the US-China talks. If Beijing and Washington finally reach the final agreement, the pair AUD/USD will be fixed above the upper limit of the above price range. Otherwise, "Aussie" will designate for itself new landmarks within 68-69 figures.

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In terms of technology, the pair is also in the flat. This is indicated by the location of the price on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator (D1 timeframe), as well as the presence of the pair in the Kumo cloud of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. The support and resistance levels are the lower and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which correspond to 0.7030 and 0.7150 marks.

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BITCOIN Analysis for April 2, 2019

Bitcoin jumped above $4,500 recently. Moreover, the price managed to touch and reject off the milestone price area of $5,000 as well with a single hourly candle. Bitcoin climbed above a 5-month high with such impulsiveness that came as a surprise for Bitcoin bulls. Currently, traders are taking profits.

The price is currently holding inside a trading range between $4,500 to $5,000. Today's gain is assumed as triggering an order worth $100 million spread across US-based exchanges. The bullish bias was quite strong earlier but such impulsiveness was not quite expected even by regular market participants. Currently the price formed Bearish Continuous Divergence which is expected to lead to further corrective and volatile price action in the coming days before the price jumps higher again with a target towards $5,000 or even higher. The price is also being held by the dynamic levels as support which will help the price to rebound again if certain pullbacks occur along the way. As the price remains above $4,500, the most popular cryptocurrency is likely to reinforce impulsive upward momentum in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

RESISTANCE: 5,000, 5,150, 5,300

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE

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Bitcoin analysis for April 02, 2019

BTC has spiked higher as we expected. BTC did tested the price of $5.061. We exited all our positions and we are neutral now.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that after the break of the consolidation range BTC did spike higher. Anyway, we found on the H4 time-frame 2 ultra big climatic bars (overextension), which is sign that buying at this stage looks extremely risky. ADX is reading is at 58, which is sign that momentum and trend are still strong. Potential downward correction towards $4.500 is possible. Strong resistance levels are seen at $5.064 and $5.770.

Trading recommendation: We exited our long position that we held from $4.070 and took profit at $4.700 with the profit of 15%. Now, we are neutral since the climatic action on the top and we are waiting for more market information's before new position.

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Analysis of Gold for April 02, 2019

Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of $1.284.70. We are still expecting downside.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that price rejected of the Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of $1.296.00 and it rejected from the 20-exponential moving average (yellow line). The ADX reading above 30 level is suggesting us that trend is still strong. The resistance levels are seen at the price of $1.296.00 and $1.301.00. Key short-term support is seen at the price of $1.280.60.

Trading recommendation: Watching for selling opportunities with the target at $1.280.60.

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GBP/USD: plan for the American session on April 2. The pound is falling after the news on Brexit, putting traders at a standstill

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

There is no decision on Brexit, which brings the UK closer to leaving the EU without an agreement. The deadline is on April 12. Buyers failed to keep above the support level of 1.3061, which now acts as resistance. In the second half of the day, the bulls can prove themselves after updating the large support level of 1.2992, and if there is no one, then it is better to open long positions on the rebound from the minimum of 1.2950. The return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3061 can form a larger growth of GBP/USD with a test of the maximum of 1.3109, where I recommend fixing the profit.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The bears had worked out the morning scenario for the return and consolidation below the support of 1.3061, to which I drew attention in my review. At the moment, the next target of sellers will be the support area of 1.2992 and 1.2950, where I recommend fixing the profits. Any negative news on Brexit can lead to a big sale of the pound. In the scenario of an upward correction in the second half of the day, there is a resistance level of 1.3061, but I recommend to sell the pound immediately on the rebound only after the test of the maximum of 1.3109.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is below 30-day and 50-moving averages, which indicates the formation of a downtrend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case of growth, the average border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the region of 1.3075 will act as resistance.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Brexit: finding a way out of the impasse means choosing the lesser of the evils

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Brexit's initial deadline (March 29, 2019) has passed, but the United Kingdom is still in the European Union. Now, the latest date is April 12, and the country's withdrawal from the alliance can still take place. This will happen if British politicians are unable to reach a compromise.

On the eve, the deputies of the House of Commons again rejected all options presented as an alternative to the "divorce" plan with the EU proposed by British Prime Minister Theresa May.

However, lawmakers still have a chance to take the process of the country's withdrawal from the bloc under its control and express the opinion that the government should take further.

Tomorrow, the next "signal" voting on alternative Brexit scenarios should take place in the Parliament.

It is assumed that the majority of votes may receive the option proposed by the representative of the Conservative Party Kenneth Clarke, according to which the United Kingdom remains in the eurozone and negotiates with the EU on a temporary Customs Union.

According to the newspaper The Sun, members of the government are increasingly inclined to the same option.

Today, T. May is expected to hold five-hour talks with her cabinet, during which supporters and opponents of the country's withdrawal from the EU will fight for the best option. It is possible that the ministers may be invited to consider the possibility of moving the Brexit deadline until the end of the year or at a later date.

Thus, if British politicians fail to reach a consensus, then Brexit will either have to be postponed for years, or go out on April 12. In the latter case, the "hard" scenario will cease to be a hypothetical threat and become a reality.

According to Klaas Knot, member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB), the situation around Albion's exit from the EU is now the most serious threat to the eurozone from a political point of view.

"The market does not seem to be counting on Brexit. If it happens, then the pound sterling will be under pressure," K. Knot noted.

According to some estimates, in the event of an unregulated exit from the EU, the United Kingdom may lose about 2% of GDP in the next two years, and the British currency – to fall by 20-25%.

"The pair GBP/USD is still above 1.30. Apparently, market participants are still hoping that a British exit from the EU without an agreement can be avoided. Some of them even expect Brexit to be delayed until 2020. However, if the situation does not clear up in the coming days, the pound against the dollar may drop to $ 1.28, as the market will start to get nervous about the "hard" Brexit," experts of the Italian bank UniCredit believe.

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GBP / USD. April 2. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The British Parliament rejected four of the Brexit option

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - up.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -62.0682

The GBP/USD currency pair adjusted to the moving average and failed to overcome it, therefore, it resumed its downward movement after the rebound. It would be rather strange if the pound sterling again began to grow, as there were no really important and positive messages from the UK. The UK manufacturing business index for March was published yesterday in the UK, and it was unexpectedly much higher than forecast (55.1 vs. 51.0). However, this index is unlikely to level the entire negative effect of Brexit. Meanwhile, the British Parliament held four more votes on possible options for the development of the event on Brexit. This time there was not even a loud announcement of this event. And quite rightly, as the Parliament did not try to surprise the public and rejected all four alternative options, including a new referendum, as well as the option of extending EU membership in the free economic zone, the option with the permanent Customs Union after Brexit and the option of another extension deadlines. The most interesting thing is that the Parliament has no choice but to continue to vote for all the options in a row, since it is necessary to choose and adopt at least one option. We can only watch all this chaos in the UK, which a few months ago it was even difficult to imagine. The pound, in our opinion, will continue to remain under pressure.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3062

S2 - 1.3000

S3 - 1.2939

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3123

R2 - 1.3184

R3 - 1.3245

Trading recommendations:

The pair GBP/USD resumed its downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.3062 and 1.3000 before the color with Heikin Ashi indicator 1-2 bars in purple color are again relevant.

Long positions will become relevant only after overcoming the moving with the first goal of 1.3184. From a fundamental point of view, there are few grounds for such an option.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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USD/JPY analysis for April 02, 2019

USD/JPY has been trading upwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 111.46. We are still expecting more upside on this currency pair.

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According to the H4 time-frame, we found that the trend is still strong and the ADX reading at 35 is sign of the healthy trend. In the background inverted head and shoulders did set the upside tone and this is another confirmation of the bullish condition. The USD/JPY is trading in the consolidation phase at the moment and in past 20 hours we are seeing bullish flag in creation, which is another sign that the trend is stable. Flags are integral part of the consolidation in the trend condition. Support levels are seen at 111.20 and 110.85. Resistance levels are seen at 111.70 and 111.90.

Trading recommendation: We are still long USD/JPY from 110.95 with the targets at 111.70 and 111.90. We secured today position on the breakeven so it is risk free position now.

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EUR / USD plan for the American session on April 1. Eurozone producer prices showed no growth

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Weak data on producer prices in the eurozone did not allow the euro to even return to the resistance level of 1.1212. For the second half of the day, the target of the bulls remains to this range and a breakthrough will lead to the formation of a new upward correction with testing of the upper boundary of the past side channel in the area of 1.1244, where I recommend taking profits. With the scenario of further reduction of the euro with the trend, it is best to look closely at long positions in EUR/USD after updating the lows of 1.1176 and 1.1149.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears made an attempt to update at least this month but the downward trend did not receive support even against the background of weak data for the eurozone. However, as long as trading is conducted below the resistance of 1.1212, the pressure on the euro will continue and the formation of a false breakdown at this level will be a good signal for opening short positions. The main purpose of the bears are the lows near 1.1176 and 1.1149, where I recommend taking profits. With the scenario of returning EUR/USD back to the side channel of 1.1212-1.1244, it is best to return to short positions from its upper limit or sell for a rebound from a maximum of 1.1269.

More in the video forecast for April 2

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent will not scare the dollar

Due to the growth of business activity in the USA and China, oil managed to close the quarter with the best result in a decade. Futures quotes for Brent and WTI climbed to the area of 5-month highs amid the rise of the March index of supply managers of the Middle Kingdom to the semi-annual peak and the growth of its American counterpart from 54.2 to 55.3. The Chinese economy is gradually recovering and the slowdown of GDP in United States may not be as serious as previously assumed. If so, then demand in black gold will play on the side of the "bulls". Given some weakness of the American production, this circumstance allows them to drive quotes to the north.

According to Bloomberg experts, oil production by 14 OPEC countries fell by 295 thousand b/d to 30.385 million b/d in March. The indicator is ready to fall for the fourth month in a row, primarily due to the actions of Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is seriously determined to stabilize the market and for this, it reduces production to a 4-year minimum. Along with Washington's willingness to increase economic sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, this circumstance turns on the green light in front of the Brent and WTI bulls. Hedge funds do not get tired of increasing speculative long positions in both classes as prices are rising.

Dynamics of speculative positions on Brent and WTI

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I have repeatedly noted that in the supply area, there is a process of rope pulling between OPEC and American producers. Therefore, black gold often responds to changes in demand. In this regard, the increased likelihood of the termination of the US-Chinese trade war and the economic recovery of the Middle Kingdom is positive news for the asset being analyzed.

Moreover, the slowdown in domestic demand in the United States under the influence of the traditionally bad weather for the first quarter, as well as the shutdown of the US government and other factors affect the production. The number of rigs from Baker Hughes from mid-November decreased by 72 to 816 and the report of the US Energy Information Administration recorded the first decline in production from May 2018 by 90 thousand b/d to 11.9 million b/d. I do not think that this is a turning point of the uptrend. The current oil market conditions are extremely favorable for companies from the States. By taking advantage of high prices, they are able to double the volume of hedging operations. This will allow extracting oil in the future even in the face of a fall in its value.

Black gold goes up against the strong US dollar. The bulls on the USD index are not scared of either the increase in the likelihood of a reduction in the federal funds rate in 2019 or the verbal intervention of the White House, which calls on the Fed to lower the rate from 2.5% to 2%. In my opinion, an infinitely long upward trend in the US currency cannot continue in the background of the completion of the economic cycle.

Technically, a breakthrough of the resistance at $ 68.6 per barrel creates prerequisites for the continuation of the Brent rally in the direction of $ 72.9 (61.8% of the CD wave) as part of the transformation of the Shark pattern at 5-0.

Brent daily chart

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The dollar is growing because economic problems no longer seem to be a problem

The dollar continues to move up and has already updated its two-week high against the yen. Its weakening concerns about the weakness of the global economy, which raised the yield of US bonds from 15-month lows and contributes to the strengthening of the currency. It is worth noting that the growth in profitability was made possible by encouraging production data in the USA and China, optimism in this regard prompted investors to reduce their safe assets and return to more risky ones. The dollar will benefit from what is happening on the market and go up. In addition, it is worth noting seasonal factors that also help the dollar as the demand for currency attracts more and more traders. The observed sequence of positive reports increases risk appetite after excessive pessimism about the global economy dominated the markets during March.

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The rest of the special changes are not observed. The euro is slightly cheaper while the pound fluctuates depending on news related to Brexit. On Monday, it was up against expectations of an agreement reached then went down on Tuesday, after Theresa May's failure in parliament. The Australian dollar fell by 0.25 percent to 0.7092 dollars, but overall, it is holding up well. The reaction of the Australian to the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates unchanged at the level of 1.50 percent was limited because the decision was expected.

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EUR/USD. April 2. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Now, the European currency is reduced due to the weak macroeconomic

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -113.6938

On Tuesday, April 2, the currency pair EUR/USD resumed its fall and came close to the lower boundary of an important and strong support area of 1.1200 - 1.1270. It seems that this time, this area will still be overcome, but the chances for the eighth rebound from it also remain. Also, the price is now rested on the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1.1200. Yesterday was marked by the failure of macroeconomic statistics in the European Union and in the States. However, if in America at least the ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector turned out to be better than expected, in Europe there was no such smoothing negative effect. Therefore, we saw another, if not collapse, then a decline in the euro currency. At present, the calendar of Europe is empty, and in America reports on orders for durable goods will be published. This is quite an important indicator, so a weaker value, rather than market expectations, may cause the long-awaited support of the European currency. Conversely, the strong value of these reports will send a pair below 1.1200. From a technical point of view, there is no reason to assume that the pair will turn up. Even the fastest Heikin Ashi indicator keeps pointing down. Therefore, we recommend to follow the trend and not trying to guess the next reversal of the pair to the top.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1200

S2 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1261

R3 - 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade short positions with targets at 1.1200 and 1.1169. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a new round of corrective movement.

Buy positions are recommended to be considered no earlier than fixing the pair above the moving average line with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1322. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to ascending.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD: The demand for the US dollar will continue to remain in uncertainty

Yesterday's data on the American economy, where, on the one hand, there was a decline in retail sales, and on the other, a steady increase in manufacturing activity, was interpreted differently by traders, which led to a slight strengthening of the US dollar. However, the downward trend for the EURUSD pair has not yet received a continuation.

According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, consumer activity in the US in February of this year has declined significantly. Thus, retail sales fell immediately by 0.2% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected growth rates of 0.2%. If we do not take volatile prices for cars and gasoline, then retail sales in February fell immediately by 0.6%.

Let me remind you that in January, according to the revised data, retail sales increased by 0.7%.

The report also said that the main decline was observed in sales of furniture, electronic equipment, clothing, and food.

The PMI for the US manufacturing industry, released in the afternoon, provided some support for the US dollar, as it was better than economists had expected.

According to the report of the Institute for Supply Management, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector in March of this year rose to 55.3 points against 54.2 points in February. An index value above 50 points indicates an increase in activity. Economists had forecast a more moderate growth, to the level of 54.4 points.

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The main increase was observed in the price index, which in March returned above 50 points and amounted to 54.3 points against 49.4 in February. The employment index in March rose to 57.5 points versus 52.3.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the market remains on the side of euro sellers. The consolidation below the lower boundary of the side channel in the area of 1.1210 indicates that the pressure remains, which can lead to a new wave of decline in risky assets in the area of minimum 1.1170 and 1.1120. If buyers return to the market, it is unlikely they will be able to easily break through above the maximum of 1.1250 and 1.1300.

The British pound rose after a good report on manufacturing activity, but fell sharply at the end of the North American session, after it became known that the British Parliament rejected several alternative scenarios for Brexit.

According to the data, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the UK manufacturing sector rose to 55.1 points in March, while it was projected at 50.9 points. In February, this index was 52.1 points.

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Brexit: The decisive day has come

On Monday, the British Parliament was unable to find a majority under any of the options for an agreement with the EU from the new referendum to the preservation of Britain in the trade and customs union.

On Tuesday, Premier Theresa May appointed a government meeting and the issue of postponing a Brexit date should be resolved for a long time until the end of the year or more.

This is a crucial moment for the markets: If such a delay is adopted, the Brexit theme will cease to be acute and will not affect the economy and markets for a long time.

This can give a strong impetus to European currencies, particularly the pound and the euro.

GBP/USD daily chart

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Analysis of EUR/USD divergence for April 2. The euro depreciated against the dollar slowly

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair resumed the process of falling in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.1177). The rebound of the pair on April 2 from the Fibo level of 100.0% will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the euro currency and some growth in the direction of the retracement level of 76.4% (1.1241). Today, emerging divergences are not observed in any indicator. Closing the pair below the Fibo level of 100.0% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 127.2% (1.1102).

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of extremums from March 7, 2019, and March 20, 2019.

Daily

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As seen on the 24-hour chart, the pair consolidated below the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1285), which allows traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 161.8% (1.0941). Around this low, we can expect a reversal in favor of the euro and the resumption of growth. If there are no problems with its passage, then the chances of falling will increase.

The Fibo grid is built on the grounds of extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations:

Buy deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1241 if the pair disconnects from the level of 100.0%. The stop-loss order should be placed below the level of 1.1177.

Sell deals on EUR/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.1102 if the pair closes below the retracement level of 100.0%. The stop-loss order should be placed above the level of 1.1177.

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Wave analysis for GBP / USD pair on April 2. Briton can not decide on a breakthrough of the minimum wave b

Wave counting analysis:

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On April 1, the GBP/USD pair added about 65 bp, while failing to update the previous local minimum, but retaining the prospects for building the downward trend section and its wave 3 . I still expect the tool to pass the b wave minimum, which will indicate the pair's willingness to further decline. The news background for the pair remains negative since the UK Parliament cannot determine its desires on the Brexit issue. Yesterday, they blocked four more different versions of Brexit. All these events are unlikely to cause demand for the sterling pound. Today, I recommend paying attention to the US report on orders for long-term use goods, although of course, Brexit remains the main theme for the pair in which everything moves towards a "hard" exit scenario.

Purchase targets:

1.3350 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.3454 - 127.2% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2961 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern assumes the construction of a downward wave 3. The news background still remains on the side of the dollar, which implies a further decline in the pair. With the breakthrough of the minimum of wave b, there will be much more confidence in the further decrease. Thus, I expect a break at 1.2961 with further construction of the downward wave.

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Side dynamics in the markets will continue in the near future

The central banks of economically developed countries, whose currencies belong to the major pairs are traded on the so-called Grand Forex. It continues to demonstrate a clear dependence on the behavior of the US Federal Reserve.

Today, the final decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the key interest rate unchanged was predictable. The regulator motivated his actions by the fact that the risks of lowering the growth of the national economy increased amid a decline in the growth of the global economy, despite the fact that there are still prospects for the growth of the global economy. The bank also said that GDP draws a weaker picture of the economy than the data from the labor market, while inflationary pressure remains low and stable. Previously, the same decision on interest rates was taken by the Central Bank of New Zealand, motivating its actions in a similar vein.

In the wake of the outcome of the meeting of the Australian Central Bank, the local currency paired with the US dollar came under noticeable pressure and at the same time, its decline was clearly within the established local range of 0.7060-0.7160.

In the previous article, we raised the topic of the reasons for such dynamics, namely the side in the currency markets. In our opinion, this picture will continue once again and it seems for a long period of time until it becomes clear whether the slowdown in the global economy and similar trends in the United States will stop. Will the eurozone or Germany, in particular, will slide into recession will China succeed in restoring economic growth? In addition, the situation around Brexit keeps investors in the tone of uncertainty on its prospects as they say.

Probably, the overall picture will change only when the Fed finally makes a decision, for instance, to lower interest rates in the wake of the continued slowdown in US economic growth, but this can happen only after reaching an agreement on trade between Washington and Beijing. However, the question is: when will this happen and what will they be? Therefore, we continue to expect general lateral dynamics in the currency markets of major pairs, where the US dollar is present, at least in the short term until May, when this agreement can be concluded.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is trading below 1.1215 while pending the publication of production inflation data in the eurozone and the values of durable goods orders in the States. If manufacturing inflation shows a decline and orders in the US increases as expected, then the pair will head for 1.1175.

The AUD/USD pair continues to move in the range at the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend, which is visible on the daily chart. If the data from the United States will be strong, the pair will overcome the mark of 0.7075 and continue to fall to 0.7040. However, if they are weaker than expected, the price may return to 0.7120.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for April 2. The pound "pulls" down again

4h

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As seen on the 4-hour chart, the pair GBP/USD performed a reversal in favor of the American currency and consolidation below the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3094). As a result, the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next retracement level of 61.8% (1.2969). On April 2, there is no indicator of emerging divergences on both charts. The new consolidation of the pair above the Fibo level of 76.4% will again work in favor of the British pound and the resumption of growth in the direction of the retracement level of 100.0% (1.300).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from September 20, 2018, and January 3, 2019.

1h

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As seen on the hourly chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and a fall to the retracement level of 76.4% (1.3061). The end of the pair of this level will allow traders to count on a turn in favor of the British currency and some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.3121). Closing the pair below the level of 76.4% will increase the likelihood of a further fall in the direction of the next retracement level of 100.0% (1.2961).

The Fibo grid is built on extremes from March 11, 2019, and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.3121 and a stop-loss order under the retracement level of 76.4% if the pair rebounds from the level of 1.3061 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD pair can be opened with the target at 1.2961 and a stop-loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.3061 (hourly chart).

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Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (April 2)

For the last trading day, the Euro / Dollar currency pair showed low volatility of 46 points. However, it is worth paying tribute, and the direction remains unchanged. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a stable downward movement. Yes, it is relatively not sharp, but the path from 1.1440 to 1.1195 speaks volumes. Traders and experts in some respects are inclined to think that there is some kind of accumulation due to general uncertainty and fear that the deal with Britain will end in a tough way out. Moreover, the market reaction will not be overwhelming. Then, there is such a move. Now, plunging tightly into the news and news background, we see that yesterday's regular meeting in the British Parliament, all alternative options for the Brexit deal were rejected. That one single script which received the most support from Kenneth Clarke's Conservative Party MP, was the one in which Britain retained membership in the customs union. A total of 273 deputies voted yes, while 276 were against it. However, this is not yet an enough justification for approval. You understand that Europe has already given its answer, that the concessions will not go and the time with England will be until April 12. Let them vote for what they want. The leader of the Liberal faction in the European Parliament (EP), Guy Verhofstadt, has already spoken regarding the current situation. Hard Brexit without a deal becomes almost inevitable. He also added the Britain only has one last chance to overcome the impasse, otherwise, the politician stressed, the UK will meet the abyss.

analytics5ca3161f541d9.jpg

Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we are waiting for statistics on the United States regarding durable goods, and, of course, again the Brexit background, where, as Steven Barclay announced (Minister for Brexit UK), the members of the British Cabinet is scheduled to have a meeting which will allow them to discuss the possible options out of this situation.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the downward move resumed and the recent slowdown could be attributed to the regrouping of trading forces. It is likely to assume that the sellers are aimed at the level of 1.1180, which reflects the local minimum of March 7, as well as the section of the cluster on historical data. It is difficult to say how quotes will behave further; and for this reason, traders occupy a waiting position and monitor price fixing points.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

analytics5ca31634142d3.png

- We consider buying positions in the case of stagnation within 1.1180, where in the case of level processing, it will be possible to lay long positions.

- It's too late to sell positions for sale, yet we are facing the same level of 1.1180, which many traders were aiming at. Now, the clear price fixing is worth analyzing which happens to be lower than 1.1180. In case of a breakdown, we can expect further descent to 1,1100-1,1000.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF ), we can see that in the short, intraday and medium term, there is a downward interest against the general background of the market.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 2 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 21 points. It is likely to assume that if the quote finds a foothold around the level of 1.1180, then the volatility will remain low.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1230 * 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1000

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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USD/CAD: technical review 02.04.2019

Current dynamic

On 4-hour chart, USD/CAD bounced off the 1.3297 horizontal-support but is yet to cross the 1.3336 (Murray [5/8]) resistance, that impedes growth to 1.3366 (Murray [6/8]) resistance-line. Additionally, the pair has been trading steadily beyond the 1.3366 could set 1.3397 and the 1.3427 as new buyers targets. If USD/CAD cannot consolidate above the level of 1.3336, the pair will be able to resume the downward trend and retest the level 1.3305 (Murray [4/8]). The mark of 1.3305 seems to be strong support as its break can push the price down to 1.3275 (Murray [3/8])-1.3244 (Murray [2/8]). Technical indicators mostly reflect the moderate maintenance of the overall downward tren. However, the upward correction is possible in the short term. Bollinger Bands are leaning downwards. MACD volumes are slowly decreasing in the negative zone. Stochastic has left the oversold area and is pointed upwards, reflecting the high possibility of the upward movement formation.

analytics5ca324524a031.png

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3275, 1.3244, 1.3214.

Resistance levels: 1.3336, 1.3366, 1.3397, 1.3427.

Trading scenarios

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3336 with the target at around 1.3366-1.3397 and stop-loss 1.3316.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3305 with the target at around 1.3275 and stop-loss 1.3320.

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Markets intend to win back the accumulated positive

The ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector rose to 55.3 p in March against 54.2 p, which came as a surprise for experts who expected much more modest growth. The growth of ISM contributed to the continuation of the rally in the markets. The S & P 500 index rose to 2,869 pp, seriously aiming at the historical peak. Oil updated the 5-month maximum. Even though, the expected retail sales data are much weaker than in February, it did not prevent achieving positive growth.

Markets continue to play a number of bullish factors that have emerged in recent weeks - easing the Fed's monetary policy, reducing the threat of slowing China, as well as, positive expectations from trade negotiations, which, as US Treasury Secretary Mchuchin says, are developing in a constructive way.

However, for the last point, a reappraisal will soon be possible to occur- Beijing does not feel any desire to satisfy the demands for structural reforms. China understands that Trump needs a deal more than China, and therefore, the lack of a deal scenario is even more acceptable than a deal on bad terms.

EURUSD

Growth in consumer prices for March in the eurozone, according to preliminary data, amounted to 1.4% versus 1.5% in February. The growth of core inflation slowed down from 1.0% to 0.8%. Both results were worse than expected, and price pressure remained low.

Weak data changes the ECB's monetary policy expectations in favor of easing rather than tightening. Inflation is still well below the target of the ECB.

analytics5ca313f2d6630.jpg

There are no signs of a price rise for services when it comes to reduced production. This is currently the main criterion that can somehow remedy the situation. The threat of a tough Brexit, which has increased after another unsuccessful attempt to accept an agreement on withdrawal in the UK parliament, will have a negative impact on the German economy, and thus will be able to predict the Federation of German Industry. The forecast for GDP growth for 2019 has been reduced from 1.2% to 0.7%. Amid a sharp drop in business activity, the decline in the forecast does not look excessive.

The euro remains under pressure. Today, an attempt to break through the support of 1.1175 is more likely to occur. This will, later on, lead to the triggering of stop orders and the strengthening of the downward movement.

GBPUSD

The PMI index in the UK industry unexpectedly rose in March to a 13-month high, showing 55. 1n vs. 52.1 a month earlier.

analytics5ca314395b765.jpg

The reason for such activity is that enterprises are massively preparing to leave the UK from the EU and carry out previously planned measures to stabilize their production indicators. Stocks of finished products in warehouses have grown to record levels, which led to an increase in output and employment.

The pound is waiting for further developments. There are only 10 days left until the "X" hour, which is scheduled on April 12. There is no option suiting all options. All chances for a soft scenario were rejected by the British side. Meanwhile, the British economy will have to encounter a lot of problems, including the increase in the outcome of capital from London.

On Tuesday, the pound will continue to trade in the range bounded below by the support of 1.2958 / 65, above the resistance of 1.3090 / 3105. There is no single direction. The threat of a decline following the euro looks a bit more likely to show up.

NZDUSD

The beginning of the recession is anticipated. This further triggers nervousness, which has not bypassed New Zealand. The NZIER quarterly survey shows that 27% of enterprises expect economic conditions to deteriorate in the coming months. A significant number of enterprises indicated a decline in demand, and the index fell by 29%.

analytics5ca3147ae668c.jpg

Due to a decrease in demand, enterprises find it increasingly difficult to remain within the limits of profitability even in the face of rising prices. As a result, more and more firms expect a decline of investment. On Tuesday, the price index for dairy products is expected to be published. A weak growth of 0.3% is predicted against 1.9% 2 weeks ago. Since February, the dynamics is negative and the result is not better than the forecasts. This will, in turn, increase the pressure on kiwi.

Over the past 6 months, NZDUSD tried to attack the resistance of 0.6940 / 60 for. However, all the three attempts were unsuccessful. Kiwi is under pressure. The closest targets are 0.6949 and 0.6916. In case of worsening foreign economic background, a bearish trend may strengthen and try to get to support 0.6650 / 70.

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Burning forecast 04/02/2019

Brexit is developing in the worst case scenario and continues to put pressure on markets and the European currency.

But it seems the decisive day has come: Theresa May will hold 5 hours of Cabinet meeting on Tuesday — on how to get a long delay (up to a year) so that Parliament can calmly find a solution to the agreement with the EU. In the event of such a delay, the Brexit theme will leave the markets at least for a long time.

The EURUSD rate as well as the pound are under pressure.

The euro is near the lower boundary of the range of 1.1175 - and will probably make an attempt to breakthrough.

It must be kept in mind that a breakthrough may be false.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175 nonetheless.

But in case of a reversal, we are ready to buy the euro from 1.1255

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 2, 2019

EUR has been affected by a slowdown in the eurozone's economy. On the other hand, JPY has been losing momentum recently. The pair is expected to make a correctional climb and afterwards the price could move lower.

Citing ECB President Draghi, the eurozone's economy is facing an economic slowdown that needs significant monetary stimulus. Such monetary policy could cushion the eurozone's economy from external risks which are derailing economic growth and consumer inflation. Draghi also stated that the eurozone's recovery will need a patient approach of the monetary authorities. The ECB and local governments in the EU countries are making efforts to uplift the economy despite a persistent slowdown in the global economy. Besides, the EU-US trade talks are delayed. So, any negative outcome of the talks is also expected to hurt the European economy in certain ways.

analytics5ca30750730fb.png

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Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - placing trade orders (April 2)

Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a consistently high volatility of 140 points, as a result of having a fairly wide amplitude of fluctuations. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after the quotation reached a psychological level of 1.3000. The bears slowed down and as a result, a full-fledged correction to the value of 1.3148 took shape on the background of general uncertainty and, naturally, accumulated oversold. The information and news background continues to revolve around Brexit, where, for the third time, the British Parliament rejected all available options for a "divorce" agreement. Yesterday, according to the tradition, the Parliament of Great Britain gave a look at all the options for the transaction, or rather, there were the last four. Most support was received by the scenario of the deputy from the Conservative Party, Kenneth Clarke under which Britain retains membership in a customs union. 273 deputies voted for, while 276 are against. However, this is not enough for approval. A dead end is the only definition of everything that is happening. The ideal version of an agreement that the deputies would suit the deputies, simply does not exist, since the EU does not back down and defends only its own interests. Let's now go over the comments of high-ranking British officials: Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay said that "Parliament constantly refuses to go out without a deal, but it also does not want to remain in the EU. Therefore, the only option is to find a way by which the UK will be able to leave the European Union by concluding a deal with it. And the government still believes that the best course of action is to do it as soon as possible. " What can I say right? "Captain-obvious" do as soon as possible. Well, there are literally 10 days left. In turn, Prime Minister Theresa May is looking for an opportunity to hold the fourth vote in Parliament, and it's not for nothing that she is called the second "Iron Lady", since her perseverance are on the right track.

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Today, as Stephen Barclay announced, a meeting of the members of the British Cabinet is scheduled, and it is expected that it will consider all options for resolving the situation.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the earlier corrective move came to an end, and the quotation again tends to move to the recent pivot point in the form of the psychological level of 1.3000. It is likely to assume that the quotation will go down to the level of 1.3000, but then you need to monitor the price behavior on the subject of fixation points.

Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:

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- We consider buying positions in the region of 1.3000, in the event that there is stagnation and an attempt to rebound.

- Traders consider selling positions with a primary perspective to the level of 1.3000. Furthermore, fixation points of 1.2955 are already monitored.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there is a downward interest on the general background of the market in the short, intraday and medium term.

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Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(April 2 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 70 points. It is likely to assume that due to the general information background, volatility will remain at a high level.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700

Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for April 2. News from the EU and the US supported the US dollar

analytics5ca30e4e19a67.png

Wave counting analysis:

On Monday, April 1, trading ended for EUR / USD with a loss of another 15 bp. The previous price low has been updated, so there is every reason to assume the continuation of the construction of the downward wave, which continues to be identified as b. However, a successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 5 will lead to the need to refine the wave marking and complicate the downward trend. At the same time, small chances that the tool will not update wave 5 at least still remain. The preliminary inflation rate in the European Union was only 1.4%, which is worse than what the markets is expecting to see. The news background remains neutral overall, but with a minimal bias in favor of the US currency.

Sales targets:

1.1177 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1448 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair is supposedly close to completing wave b. Now, I recommend waiting for a new signal to complete this wave and start buying a pair with targets near the 1.1455 mark, which corresponds to the maximum of wave a. There is an option in which the pair will go beyond the previous minimum, however, the rising wave in any case will be built and, most likely, will be commensurate with all previous waves.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for April 2, 2019

USD managed to sustain bullish momentum over JPY despite a series of downbeat reports published recently that indicates severe JPY weakness.

US Retail Sales unexpectedly fell below the 0 level in February that came as an unpleasant surpise as it is one of the most important criteria for consumer activity which signals a possible change in inflation. The Manufacturing activity showed an increase. However, a slump in Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales which entered the contraction area is expected to cause weakness of USD. The loss of momentum in consumer activity is viewed to be the result of higher interest rates, a slowdown in the globsl economy, the ongoing US-China trade conflict, and Brexit.

On Friday, the US Labor Department is due to release a report of major importance. Analysts have mixed expectations of the private employment data that could cap USD gains this week. Besides, Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published with a possible decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to surge to 175k from the previous figure of 20k, and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Today US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of -0.2% and Durable Goods Orders is expected to drop to -1.1% from the previous value of 0.3%.

analytics5ca2fe0804875.jpg

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on April 2. Pound volatility will continue to remain high

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

While there is no news on Brexit, the volatility of the pound will continue to remain at a high level. At the moment, buyers need to stay above the support of 1.3061, and the formation of a false breakdown on it will be a signal to open long positions, which will lead to an update of resistances of 1.3106 and 1.3162, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound further decreases, you can only count on large levels of support around 1.3000 and 1.2950.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday's good data on the UK led to a slight upward correction of the pound, which ended with selling after news that the British Parliament rejected several alternatives to the Brexit scenario. At the moment, bears are required to return and consolidate below the support of 1.3061, which will lead to the demolition of the lower boundary of the ascending channel and updating the low in the region of 1.3001 and 1.2950, where I recommend taking profits. If the demand for the pound continues in the first half of the day, you can take a closer look at short positions on the false breakdown from a resistance of 1.3106 or on the rebound from a high of 1.3162.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3035 will lead to selling the pound. Growth will be limited by the middle border of the indicator in the region of 1.3100 and the upper border in the area of 1.3160.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 2. Traders increasingly trust the US dollar

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak US data did not prevent the US dollar from further strengthening, which led to an update of monthly lows. At the moment, euro buyers need to return to the resistance level of 1.1212, where a new upward trend may start with a test of the upper limit of the side channel at 1.1244, where I recommend taking profits. With a weak report on producer prices in the eurozone, which is expected to be released in the first half of the day, it is best to look closely at long positions in EUR/USD after updating the lows of 1.1176 and 1.1149.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

As long as trade continues below the resistance of 1.1212, pressure on the euro will continue, and forming a false breakdown at this level will be a good signal for opening short positions. The main purpose of the bears today will be the lows in the area of 1.1176 and 1.1149, where I recommend taking profits. With the scenario of returning EUR/USD back to the side channel of 1.1212-1.1244, it is best to return to short positions from its upper limit or sell for a rebound from a high of 1.1269.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a slight advantage for euro sellers.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1232 will limit the first upward momentum in the euro. The breakthrough of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1190 will lead to forming a new wave of selling.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 2, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, technical analysis displays a downward movement. The first lower target 1.2993 is the support line for the ascending channel (yellow thin line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, technical analysis displays a downward movement. The first lower target 1.2993 is the support line for the ascending channel (yellow thin line).

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on April 2, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target of 1.1176 is a lower fractal and a support line.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Tuesday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target of 1.1176 is a lower fractal and a support line.

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Technical analysis for EURUSD for April 2, 2019

EURUSD is showing bullish divergence signs in the 4 hour chart. This is a warning for EURUSD bears but we still have no reversal confirmation yet. Medium-term trend remains bearish.

analytics5ca2ffd8645bb.png

Red line - major trend line resistance

Blue lines - bullish divergence

EURUSD is trading just above 1.12, The new lows were not followed by new RSI lows and this bullish divergence is the first important warning for EURUSD bears. Short- and medium-term trend remain bearish, but we could see the short-term trend change to bullish as a bounce towards 1.13-1.1350 could be seen. Short-term resistance is at 1.1250 and breaking above it will change the short-term trend to bullish. As long as EURUSD is below 1.14 medium-term trend remains bearish.

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Technical analysis for Gold for April 2, 2019

Gold price has made zero progress over the first quarter and has ended where it started. Price managed to reach $1,346 area but got rejected at the major long-term resistance. Weekly trend is in danger of turning bearish again.

analytics5ca2fedd4a460.png

Blue line - long-term resistance trend line

Gold weekly chart as shown above shows us how price is getting rejected and getting away from $1,300 once again. Gold price rallied at the start of the quarter but finished where it started. Gold price is in danger of turning weekly trend to bearish, as it has been rising in a weekly bullish trend since last September. $1,280-90 area is important support and a break below it will open the way for a pull back towards $1,250-60 at least. Key resistance is at $1,326 and I favor bearish positions as long as we are below it.

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Minus 4 options: the British Parliament rejects alternative scenarios for Brexit

The pound is forced to follow Brexit, although this topic has already become boring enough - both for GBP/USD traders and the other participants in the foreign exchange market. The destructive position of the British Parliament has already become the talk of the town, so yesterday's disastrous vote on the "indicative votes" procedure was hardly surprising. The House of Commons rejected all the proposed options, thereby confusing the already complicated tangle of contradictions.

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However, the British currency reacted very cautiously: the GBP/USD pair was able to stay within the 30th figure, although the mood of the market was clearly negative. Yesterday afternoon, there were rumors that Labor and Conservatives might support one of the options ("Common Market 2.0"), defining the contours of the Parliament's preferences. But these rumors were not confirmed, the deputies "hacked" all the voiced initiatives.

In this case, it is necessary to clarify what it is about. The above version of the "Common Market 2.0" (also called the "Norwegian version") suggested a scenario in which Britain would remain in the European Economic Area, while negotiating with the European Union about a temporary customs union, which would operate until a permanent alternative is found. The initiative was rejected (for - 261 deputies, 282 - against). By the way, after announcing the results of voting on this issue, Conservative deputy Nick Boles announced his withdrawal from the Conservative Party - in his words, he did "everything possible to find a compromise."

The second option was to hold a national referendum on any agreement reached on Brexit, thereby agreeing on a deal with the British. This scenario has not caused unequivocal rejection - 280 deputies voted "for", and nearly as many as "against" at 292. However, the advantage is still towards the opponents of the referendum.

The third option offered to provide Parliament with additional rights that would allow it to oblige the Cabinet of Ministers to coordinate with the European Union regarding the issue of extending Brexit's term in the event that an agreement is not reached two days prior to the X hour. But this idea was rejected by members of the House of Commons.

Well, finally, the last option - the recall of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - also did not find support within the walls of Parliament. Deputies are not ready to cancel Brexit, who essentially divided the country into two opposing camps: tens of thousands of people are taking to the streets of London - both supporters of the country's withdrawal from the EU and opponents of this idea. Therefore, the MPs decided to rely on the opinion of those British, whose opinion is "legally formalized" by the results of the 2016 referendum.

It is worth noting here that the results of yesterday's "signal" vote have only political significance, but at the same time they are not binding. However, the effect of "indicative votes" is rather doubtful, because the Parliament could not formulate an answer to the burning question: which option is it ready to support? Let me remind you that in late March, the House of Commons also rejected 8 alternative options for a deal with the EU.

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On the one hand, this suggests that the government's deal does not have any priority alternatives. On the other hand, deputies have already rejected May's option three times – and the European Union, in turn, does not intend to make adjustments to the text of the already agreed document. The circle is closed again, and now the prime minister has two main options: either she is preparing a petition to extend the negotiation period, agreeing to participate in the elections to the European Parliament, or she agrees to a "hard" Brexit. There is not much time for decision-making, since there will be an extraordinary EU summit on April 10, which will discuss a single issue – the prospects for further relations between Britain and the EU.

Of course, for May, there is a third option, in which she again brings the deal to a vote, threatening with extraordinary elections in Parliament. Such a step cannot be ruled out, all the more so since all the other levers of influence have already been involved previously. Judging by the behavior of the British currency, traders do not believe in the implementation of the worst scenario: the market is confident that the British prime minister will either receive a long delay, or everything will be the same in Parliament.

If Theresa May's actions (even of a verbal character) confirms this assumption of the market, then the pound will continue to stay in the area of the 30th figure with a possible option of testing the 31st level. However, if the head of the government chooses the "playing on nerves" tactic, the reality of a hard brexit will be recouped until the last moment - in this case, GBP/USD will break through the support level of 1.2980 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and go to the next level 1.2825 (lower Kumo cloud boundary) on the same timeframe.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum for 02/04/2019

Technical market overview:

The ETH/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance at the level of 145.09 and quickly went towards the level of 152.02, which was the next technical resistance. This is typical market behavior during the wave (3) development, so if the level of 152.02 is violated again, more upside moves should be expected. The next target would be seen at the level of 155.06.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $163.07

WR2 - $154.26

WR1 - $146.96

Weekly Pivot - $137.84

WS1 - $131.51

WS2 - $121.49

WS3 - $115.39

Trading recommendations:

The nearest target at the level of $152.01 has been hit, so all buy orders should be closed with profit by now. Congrats to all global investors who took the trade!

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com