The Brexit delay is real, pound bulls in the game

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The British pound rose against the backdrop of strong data on the labor market and in spite of the existing problems around Brexit. It's not entirely clear why traders did not disappoint Theresa May's backup plan, which is practically a copy of the original plan. In addition, "Plan B" does not include the much-needed request for an extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Currently, sterling continues to focus on negotiations on Brexit. They were so disastrous that the market began to put on a second referendum.

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Investors do not take into account the prospects of "hard" Brexit, although the political risk has not gone away, and volatility will certainly increase if market participants do not see a clear way out of the crisis.

Since the exit without a deal can hurt the UK economy, the parliament is now close to postponing the date. Increasingly, this proposal is supported by Labor, who form the basis of the opposition. One of the leading representatives of the party, John McDonnell, calls the idea of changing the release date (from March 29 to a later date) "reasonable", as this method will avoid shocks.

"I really think that we are faced with potentially quite catastrophic consequences for people's living standards, and therefore we said that we should avoid this," the politician said in an interview with the BBC.

If this proposal is supported by the Labor Party, including former Minister Yvette Cooper, then, in all likelihood, the plan will be approved. Such a turn of events could lead May to guarantee that she would not withdraw the UK from the EU without a deal in nine weeks.

It is clear that the situation is a dead end. Most parliamentarians opposed the withdrawal agreement, which the British Prime Minister so long agreed with EU officials, but there was no time left for new negotiations and a revision of its provisions.

Just in case, the "hard" Brexit script is still worth considering. The financial authorities of the country believe that this alignment will lead to a collapse of the pound by 25%.

Meanwhile, since the beginning of the year, the "Briton" has risen in price by 1.2%, paired with the dollar by 2.1% against the euro.

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Euro can cover economic winter

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Many predicted the euro growth for the foreseeable future last year, relying on the rise in German government bonds yields, a pause in the Fed's monetary tightening cycle and a possible increase in interest rates from the ECB.

However, data published in January showed that production orders and industrial production in the largest country in the region declined, and the yield on government bonds was stuck near two-year lows.

The ECB promised to keep the rate unchanged at least until the end of the summer of 2019, but the money market does not expect an increase in the cost of lending before the second quarter of 2020.

Societe Generale experts believe that the region's grim economic prospects will put pressure on the euro.

"If the American economy did not slow down, the single European currency could have already been trading near the $ 1.10 mark. We are leaning towards short positions in the euro versus the pound, the yen, and the Australian dollar," they noted.

"The slowdown in the eurozone's GDP growth rate suggests a drop in the business activity indicator in the industrial sector to 48 points in the next four to five months," said Citigroup experts.

"If this recession is accompanied by a decrease in inflation to the levels of 2016, then investors will again have to face zero or lower returns," they added.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the euro can benefit from the fact that the US economy slows down faster than the European one.

"Despite the fact that in both economies there are signs of a slowdown, the euro has room for growth as the negative dynamics develop in the USA. The weakness of the statistics in the eurozone is caused by temporary factors. We expect that in three months the EUR / USD pair will rise to the level of 1.17," they said.

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for January 23, 2019

AUD/JPY has been indecisive and volatile at the edge of 78.50 area from where it is expected to sink lower. Ahead of employment reports tomorrow, AUD has been quite bearish in ligh of the recently published economic reports while JPY has promising prospects.

Recently Australia's HIA New Home Sales report was published with a significant decrease to -6.7% from the previous value of 3.6% and today MI Leading Index report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of -0.1%. Tomorrow Australian Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to see a drastic fall towards 17.3k from the previous figure of 37.0k while Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.1%. As the expectation of the employment reports are gloomy, the actual negative prints are expected to affect AUD which might lead to severe weakness.

On the JPY side, today BOJ Policy Rate was published unchanged as expected at -0.10%. The Bank of Japan cuts its inflation forecasts today but maintains its massive stimulus program. BoJ Governor Kuroda warns about the growing risk for the economy from trade protectionism and faltering global demand. Rising pressure from the US-China Trade War is adding tensions for Japan and undermining years of efforts by policy makers for durable growth. Despite efforts to encourage economic growth, there are still certain risks involved. Despite the risks, Kuroda stated that Japan's economy is rising and expected to grow till fiscal 2020 with proper sustainability.

Meanwhile, JPY is expected to be the stronger currency in the pair with the optimistic view and solid economic reports, whereas upcoming economic reports with downbeat figures are expected to lead to further weakness with a target towards 75.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 80.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 75.00

RESISTANCE: 78.50, 80.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of AUD/JPY for January 23, 2019

AUD/JPY has been indecisive and volatile at the edge of 78.50 area from where it is expected to sink lower. Ahead of employment reports tomorrow, AUD has been quite bearish in ligh of the recently published economic reports while JPY has promising prospects.

Recently Australia's HIA New Home Sales report was published with a significant decrease to -6.7% from the previous value of 3.6% and today MI Leading Index report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of -0.1%. Tomorrow Australian Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to see a drastic fall towards 17.3k from the previous figure of 37.0k while Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.1%. As the expectation of the employment reports are gloomy, the actual negative prints are expected to affect AUD which might lead to severe weakness.

On the JPY side, today BOJ Policy Rate was published unchanged as expected at -0.10%. The Bank of Japan cuts its inflation forecasts today but maintains its massive stimulus program. BoJ Governor Kuroda warns about the growing risk for the economy from trade protectionism and faltering global demand. Rising pressure from the US-China Trade War is adding tensions for Japan and undermining years of efforts by policy makers for durable growth. Despite efforts to encourage economic growth, there are still certain risks involved. Despite the risks, Kuroda stated that Japan's economy is rising and expected to grow till fiscal 2020 with proper sustainability.

Meanwhile, JPY is expected to be the stronger currency in the pair with the optimistic view and solid economic reports, whereas upcoming economic reports with downbeat figures are expected to lead to further weakness with a target towards 75.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 80.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 75.00

RESISTANCE: 78.50, 80.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 23, 2019

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when significant bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2999 (Bearish Engulfing candlestick around the downtrend line).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated. The GBP/USD pair is currently approaching the price level of 1.3040.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3000 (The previous Weekly High) should be maintained on a daily basis.

Bullish persistence above 1.3000 enhances a further bullish advance initially towards 1.3155 (Depicted Supply level).

Otherwise, any decline below 1.3000 invalidates the bullish scenario for the short term.

This may bring the GBP/USD pair again into bearish correction that may extend down towards 1.2800 (Nearest Demand Level).

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Optimism around Brexit rolls over, is it worth selling a pound?

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According to Philipp Hildebrand, vice chairman of BlackRock investment company, the market too much underestimates the risk of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without an agreement.

"To give out the desired for the real, which may not happen, that is how I would characterize the situation at the moment," the expert noted.

"There is very little chance that the transaction will take place in its current or slightly modified form. In the end, on the table, most likely, there will be only two options, "tough" Brexit or its complete absence," he added.

"If the UK leaves the alliance without a deal, a violent market reaction will follow," he said.

Earlier, the Bank of England warned that the pound sterling could fall in price by 25% with a disorderly exit of the country from the EU.

"Market sentiment regarding the results of Brexit is now the most optimistic since the referendum was held in June 2016," said currency strategists at Nordea Bank.

They expect the exchange rate of the British currency to go down sharply when the situation around Brexit clears up, therefore, the best tactic at the moment is the sale of the pound against the euro.

"On the grounds that optimism is overwhelming, we recommend "shorting" the British currency and taking a long position on EUR / GBP with the aim of 0.8950," said representatives of the financial institution.

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Gold requires the continuation of the banquet

The strengthening of the US dollar against major world currencies forced some of the bulls on XAU / USD to take profits on long positions, but the correction turned out to be short. Gold is ready to return to the trading range of $ 1285-1300 per ounce, a break of the upper limit of which will increase the risks of continuing the rally. However, the same rapid growth as in December in the near future can hardly be expected.

The dollar was able to benefit from maintaining the IMF's unchanged forecast for the US economy for 2019-2020, while the GDP estimate of many eurozone countries, including Germany, Italy, and France, was downgraded. Traditionally, the USD index goes up, if the growth rate of the American economy is ahead of the global figure for developed countries. In this regard, the suggestion of the International Monetary Fund that the latter slow down from 2.3% to 2% in 2019 and to 1.7% in 2020 became a catalyst for the EUR / USD peak and weakened gold for a while. At the same time, interest in the products of specialized exchange-based funds remains high, their reserves increased to 2,253.2 tons, the maximum level since April 2013, which creates a solid foundation for the upward movement of the precious metal.

XAU / USD plays into the hands of the bulls and the gradual closing of speculative shorts in gold, as a result of which the net positions of hedge funds were able to return to the green zone.

Stocks gold ETF and speculative net positions in gold

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Breaking above the analyzed asset does not give optimism to the financial markets about the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations. Rumors about the desire of Donald Trump to make a deal, the statement of Steven Mnuchin that the abolition of tariffs will allow it to be done quickly, and the US President's hints on progress are positively perceived by stock indexes. Their stabilization puts sticks in the wheels of the "bulls" at XAU / USD, because the collapse of the S & P 500 at the end of 2018 allowed them to conduct a rapid attack.

The USD index is supported not only by the weakness of the main competitor of the dollar in the face of the euro but also by an increase in the likelihood of the Fed's monetary restriction cycle in 2019 from 12% to 25%, according to CME derivatives. Markets understand that they may have misinterpreted the pigeon rhetoric of the Federal Reserve. In fact, the central bank left the door to raise rates openly. Frankly, the realization of this fact, paired with the disappearance of fear about the global recession, complicates the path of gold to the north. Investors are convinced that in conditions of strong consumer spending and business investment, as well as the strongest labor market in recent decades, the world economy is a soft landing and not a recession. This increases investor interest in risky assets and is a moderately negative factor for the precious metal.

Technically, the inability of the bears to keep gold below $ 1,285 per ounce indicates their weakness and increases the risks of activating the Cheat-Outlier pattern, followed by the continuation of the northern campaign. To do this, the "bulls" will have to rewrite the January highs.

Gold, the daily chart

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Demand for defensive assets is growing again

Demand for defensive assets rose sharply on Tuesday amid reports that the White House canceled a regular meeting with the Chinese delegation, at which the parties were to continue the search for a mutually acceptable solution on trade issues. The formal reason for canceling the meeting is disagreement over the regulation of rules in the field of intellectual property, but the essence of disagreement can lie much deeper.

The United States, within the framework of its usual strategy, is trying to increase pressure on China, artificially creating new points of tension, which then try to "sell" as a concession in the negotiations, and this is how you need to evaluate the message that the United States intends to officially demand the extradition of Huawei Finance Director Meng Wanzhou.

At the same time, China is well aware that the real goal of the United States is to slow down the growth of the Chinese economy, so even China's readiness to increase imports from the United States totaling more than $ 1 trillion to reduce the trade surplus is not enough. Markets regard the emerging situation as a sign of a new spiral of tension, which will lead to a further decline in stock markets and an increase in demand for defensive assets.

Eurozone

The ZEW business index for Germany rose from -17.5p to -15.0p in January, while a slight decrease was predicted. The growth of activity, however, cannot compensate for the negative assessment of the overall economic situation, which sharply decreased from 45.3p to 27.6p, which indicates growing investor pessimism.

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The index of economic sentiment in the eurozone remained virtually unchanged, slightly moving up from -21.0p. to -20.9 p.

Tomorrow, before the ECB meeting, another benchmark will be released, PMI from Markit, but, apparently, we will not see significant deviations from the established trend for a slowdown. The economic situation in the eurozone looks negative, the ECB at tomorrow's meeting is likely to lower its economic growth forecast, and the only thing that supports the positive so far is the outlook for inflation, which is still stable.

In any case, one should not expect a rapid growth of the euro in the near future, even against the background of serious problems with the dollar. Prior to the ECB meeting, EUR / USD will trade in a range, support of 1.1330 / 40, a resistance of 1.1380 / 90, out of range is unlikely.

Great Britain

The pound has finally received support outside the political plane. The report on the labor market for the last 3 months to November, inclusive, turned out to be positive, exceeding forecasts in a number of parameters.

Unemployment fell from August-October from 4.1% to 4.0%, and this is the minimum level since 1975, the number of employed increased by 237 thousand and reached 75.8%, the average wage growth was kept at 3.3%, and taking into account bonuses even increased from 3.3% to 3.4%.

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The latter parameter served as the main catalyst for the growth in demand for the pound since it indirectly indicates a possible increase in inflationary pressure, which will provide the Bank of England with more freedom in preparing to exit soft monetary policy. So far, the markets are oriented towards one rate increase per year, and this rate is unlikely to be higher, but maintaining a high level of growth in average wages is, in any event, a bullish factor for the pound.

There is less time before the re-voting in the British Parliament on Brexit, the complete lack of news supports the pound, since it hints at the high intensity of backstage talks. The nearest 1/2970/80 resistance can be passed today, GBP / USD will tend to the 1.3050 / 70 zone, only an unexpected negative insider can change the mood, the probability of occurrence of which cannot be predicted.

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EUR / USD: Traders cannot decide on the further direction of the euro. Emphasis shifted to tomorrow's ECB rate decision

The European currency managed to regain its position against the US dollar in the second half of the day on Tuesday, January 22, after the release of weak statistics on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States. In general, trade continues in a narrow side channel with a slight advantage on the side of sellers of risky assets, and, apparently, more significant changes in the market will occur only tomorrow, after the publication of the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates, since until that time traders would hardly will find new landmarks.

According to the report of the National Association of Realtors USA, sales in the secondary housing market in the US in December 2018 decreased. Thus, sales in the secondary housing market fell by 6.4% compared with November and amounted to 4.99 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales of 5.25 million. Compared to the same period of the previous year, sales fell by 10.3%. In general, for the entire 2018, sales of homes amounted to 5.34 million.

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The main reasons for this reduction were high real estate prices, as well as higher mortgage lending costs due to rising interest rates in the United States during 2018.

As for the technical picture of the currency pair EUR / USD, the situation has changed a bit. Buyers for the resumption of the upward movement in risky assets require a breakthrough of the intermediate resistance level of 1.1375, but the main goal will be the test of a maximum of 1.1410. If the bulls are not in a hurry to enter the market, the option of re-lowering to the support area of 1.1340 and even updating the minimum of 1.1305 is not excluded.

The Canadian dollar fell in tandem with the US dollar after the release of a weak report on the wholesale trade in Canada, which fell more than expected in November, completely offset the growth for the previous month. The main decline was noted in the sale of machinery and equipment.

According to the Bureau of Statistics of Canada, wholesale sales fell in November 2018 by 1.0% compared with October and amounted to 62.99 billion Canadian dollars. Economists had expected a decline of 0.1%. In volume terms, in November wholesale trade declined by 1.2%. Compared to November 2017, wholesale trade increased by 1.2%.

Supplies in manufacturing Canada also declined in November. All because of failure in sales of petroleum products. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, sales in the manufacturing sector in November fell by 1.4% compared with the previous month and amounted to 57.31 billion Canadian dollars, while economists had expected sales to fall by 1.0%.

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Overview of the currency market on 01/23/2019

While the British parliamentarians once again re-read Theresa May's backup plan for secession from united Europe, the market was able to breathe easy without worrying about the next loud statements. So investors calmly contemplated data on the UK labor market, which presented an unexpected surprise. It was expected that all the parameters of the labor market would remain unchanged, but in fact, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.1% to 4.0%, while the average wage growth rate, taking into account the premiums, accelerated from 3.3% to 3.4%. The data was so positive that no one even paid attention to government borrowing, which increased by 2.1 billion pounds instead of the expected 1.1 billion pounds. At the same time, American statistics also contributed to the weakening of the dollar, as housing sales in the secondary market declined by 6.4%, while a decline of 1.0% was predicted.

In terms of macroeconomic statistics, today is a fairly calm day, which is not bad, as market participants should calm down and prepare for tomorrow's meeting of the European Central Bank. Of course, there is always the possibility that someone from parliamentarians will finally finish reading the text of Theresa May's plan for secession from the European Union and decide to immediately share her impressions with others. Especially with the media agitation and misinformation. Nevertheless, it is most likely that today the market will consolidate on the eve of tomorrow's meeting, at the end of which many want to hear specifics about the timing of the increase in the refinancing rate.

Thus, the single European currency will trade in the region of 1.1350 - 1.1375.

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The pound, by analogy with the single European currency, will be relatively stable, unless the politicians once again decide to say something stupid. So the pound will be trading at 1.2925 - 1.2950.

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GBP / USD. January 23. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Theresa May's Plan B is almost identical to Plan A

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 82.9857

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its upward movement on Wednesday, January 23, however, what is happening in the UK now correlates poorly with the nature of the movement of the pound sterling against the US currency. One gets the impression that traders have stopped paying attention to the nature of messages from Britain. Otherwise, they definitely would not ignore Theresa May's so-called "Plan B", which is now being discussed by all politicians and economists. Moreover, all experts agree that the "Plan B" is 90% different from the "Plan A". Thus, it is not clear what Theresa May, who is counting on, continues to push through her own Checkers plan, and all her beliefs of parliamentarians boil down to either her plan or withdrawal without a "deal". How parliament rejected Theresa May's resignation is unclear. But after the parliament got acquainted with the "Plan B", new conversations arose that if this option was rejected, the prime minister would definitely be asked to vacate the chair. New negotiations with the EU, which Theresa May is set up for, will end in failure with the same degree of probability as the vote on "plan B" in parliament. In general, a pound sterling is not getting cheaper by a miracle, it seems that only the "Shutdown" in the States saves the British currency from new shocks.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.2939

S2 - 1.2909

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.2970

R2 - 1.3000

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD resumed its upward movement. Therefore, purchase orders with targets of 1.2970 and 1.3000 are now relevant. Turning the Heikin Ashi indicator down will signal a manual reduction of long positions.

Sell positions will become relevant no earlier than overcoming the MA. The initiative, in this case, will pass into the hands of bears, and the first target for the downward movement will be the level of 1.2817.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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EUR / USD. January 23. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Temporary respite for the euro currency

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -43.4499

On Wednesday, January 23, the currency pair EUR / USD completed Murray's level of "2/8" - 1.1353 and, rebounding from it, began the same upward correction that was as weak as the general movement. The goal for the upward movement is now moving. But from a fundamental point of view, there is still nothing to note. The closest important event in the eurozone is the meeting of the European Central Bank and the announcement of its results, which will be held tomorrow. However, what can we expect from the ECB? Monetary tightening? No, with a probability of 100%. The quantitative incentive program has already been completed. Hints that the rate hike will start in the near future? Hardly. In general, we believe that surprises at the current meeting will be excluded. At the press conference, there will be general phrases about the tension of the regulator due to the unresolved Brexit, a possible decline in economic development and trade tensions with the States. Nothing new. Today, the calendars of macroeconomic events in the US and the eurozone are completely empty. Thus, the weak volatility of the instrument is likely to continue today. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator down will indicate the completion of the correction and the resumption of the downtrend, which is now limited to the level of 1.1353.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair EUR / USD has begun to adjust. Thus, it is recommended to open new short positions in case of fixing the price below the level of 1.1353 with the target of 1.1292. Heikin Ashi's turn down will be the primary signal of the completion of the correction.

Buy positions will become relevant if traders overcome a moving average line. In this case, the initiative will go into the hands of the bulls and will be supported by the senior linear regression channel.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 23. Great Britain risks remain without Brexit deal

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Statements by the Minister of Commerce of Great Britain saying that it was impossible to work out and implement the deal by March 29 led to the strengthening of the pound in the first half of the day, as many traders expect to extend the exit from the EU. Fixation above the level of 1.3006 with testing from top to bottom in the afternoon will be a good signal to continue buying of the pound to a maximum of 1.3064 and 1.3127, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a return below the level of 1.3006, long positions can return immediately to the rebound from the support of 1.2944.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The growth of the pound continued and the breakthrough of resistance 1.3006 led only to the removal of a number of stop orders. At the moment, it is best to return to short positions after updating the highs around 1.3064 and immediately to the rebound from 1.3127. The main task of sellers in the afternoon will be the return of GBP / USD to the support level 1.3006, which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions and the correction of the pound to the support area of 1.2944.

More in the video forecast for January 23

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading takes place above the 30-day and 50-day moving, indicating the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator signifies the presence of pound buyers in the market and as long as trade is above the middle of the channel at 1.2965, the demand will remain.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with a slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted Flag Channel (In red).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term uptrend (In blue) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 a few times.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current bearish consolidation below the key level of 1.1400 encourages more bearish decline down to 1.1250 as Initial target provided that the minor uptrend line located around 1.1350 is broken towards the downside.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can wait for a bearish breakout below 1.1350 (short-term uptrend in BLUE) as a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels should be located around 1.1310, 1.1270, and 1.1225. S/L should be located above 1.1420.

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EUR / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 23. Lack of news leaves the euro in the side channel

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The situation did not change compared to the morning forecast. The first signal to buy EUR / USD will be the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1376, which will lead to a stronger upward correction in the area of the maximum of 1.1411 and 1.1451, where I recommend taking profits. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1339 will also be the reason for buying the European currency. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions to rebound from this year's low around 1.1307.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Only the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1376 will be the first signal to open short positions with the main goal of returning and fixing below yesterday's minimum in the area of 1.1339, which will lead to a larger sale of EUR / USD with an exit to the level of 1.1307, where I recommend to take profits. In the case of the euro growth scenario, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1411.

More in the video forecast for January 23

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Bitcoin analysis for January 23, 2019

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Trading recommendations: Nothing has changed since my yesterday's analysis. BTC has failed to reach the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that sellers are loosing power and the demand may increase. There is also a breakout of the Pitchfork diagonal (resistance) which is another confirmation of strength. The key support at the price of $3,420 held successfully and I expect further bullish movement. I also found the breakout of the bullish flag, which is another sign of strength.

Trading advice: We are bullish on BTC from $3,540 with the targets at $3,742 and $4,086. The protective stop is placed below $3,420.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Analysis of Gold for January 23, 2019

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Gold is expected to move higher towards $1,294.00 (resistance cluster) as long as the support at $1,276.00 is holding. Gold failed to test the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that selling power is waning. Only a break below support at $1,276.00 will change this bullish trading idea and stop us for our bullish view.

Trading recommendation: We are long Gold from $1,285.00 with a first target at $1,294.00 and protective stop at $1,276.00.

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Simplified AUD / JPY wave analysis for the week of January 23

Large scale graph:

The bearish wave has set the direction of the cross trend for the last year and a half. The coincidence of several factors at once such as the completeness of the wave structure, the achievement of strong support and the presence of a reversal pattern indicate a quick change in the trend course of the pair.

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Medium scale graph:

The ascending segment of the chart, which began on January 3, forms the final part (C) in the waves of several TFs at once. This gives a domino effect when the wave level of movement increases without deep corrections.

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Small scale graph:

A descending wave of January 17 in a larger model forms of intermediate pullback. The reduction potential is small and limited to the support area.

Forecast and recommendations:

Sales of cross-currency pair in the near future are unpromising. At the end of the downward movement, it is recommended to track the reversal signals to search for entry into long positions.

Resistance zones:

- 78.80 / 79.30

- 81.20 / 81.70

Support areas:

- 77.30 / 76.80

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for January 23, 2019

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As I expected the GBP/USD pair traded higher and met my first yesterday's target at the price of 1.3000. The momentum is still strong on the upside and GBP/USD is going towards the second objective target at the price of 1.3080. The upward Andrew Pitchfork channel is giving us well defined levels of support and resistance and we can expect potential test of the median line (middle line).

Trading recommendations for today: We are still long GBP/USD from 1.2900 but we are adding one long position at 1.3016 due to the breakout of the resistance. We are also rising SL on the first position to 1.3070 and on that way secure the profit of 70 pips.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 23, 2019

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Overview: The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 23, 2019

EUR/JPY has been consolidating below 125.00 area after an impulsive bounce off the 121.00 support area. EUR has been weighed down by the BREXIT uncertainty and worse-than-expected economic reports which lead to EUR's weakness against JPY.

EUR has been hurt by the recently published economic reports which did not support the impulsive bullish momentum further above 125.00 area. European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici recently stated that the risk of a no deal BREXIT increased in last few weeks and it was up to the British to tell the EU how they propose to break it. EUR is currently facing unclear market sentiment ahead of BREXIT. Yo make things worse, lackluster economic reports are to blame for EUR weakness. Both the EU and the UK are not interested in a no deal BREXIT, which could derail economic growth in the future. Moreover, the European Union may reject the Italian plan to reimburse retail savers, hit by retail bank rescues which might also hit a rock bottom for EUR in the coming days.

On the JPY side, today BOJ Policy Rate was published unchanged as expected at -0.10%. The Bank of Japan cuts its inflation forecasts today but maintains its massive stimulus program. Governor Kuroda warns of the growing risk for the domestic economy from trade protectionism and faltering global demand. Rising pressure from US-China Trade War is adding tensions for Japan and undermining years of efforts by policy makers for sustainable growth. Despite japan's intention to use fiscal spending to stem an economic slowdown, there are still risks involved. However, Kuroda stated that Japan's economy is rising. The policymaker expects Japan's economy to grow till fiscal 2020 with stability and proper sustainability.

Meanwhile, amid downbeat economic data from the eurozone and inclear market sentiment EUR is expected to be dominated by JPY in the coming days. Despite risks emerging in Japan, the optimism and target GDP growth projected by Kuroda till fiscal 2020 are going to attract the market sentiment, thus causing further bearish momentum in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been correcting itself below 125.00 area which is recently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance. The price is currently having bearish confluence and expected to push lower towards 123.50 and later towards 120.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 125.00-50 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 119.00, 120.00, 123.50

RESISTANCE: 125.00-50, 127.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 23, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair opened below the weekly pivot point (1.1393). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.1393 to the bottom around 1.1335. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1393 followed by 1.1426, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1335. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 1.1393. So it will be good to sell at 1.1393 with the first target of 1.1335. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.1294.

The strong daily support is seen at the 1.1254 level. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.1393 and 1.1254 in coming hours. The price area of 1.1393 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.1393 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1393, then a stop loss should be placed at 1.1450.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on January 23, 2019

EUR / USD pair

On Tuesday, the euro declined by only 5 points. The single currency was supported by slightly improved ZEW business sentiment indices and deteriorated US home sales figures. The German business sentiment index rose from -17.5 to -15.0 in the current month, improved from -21.0 to -20.0 in the euro area while in the US, the home sales in the secondary market declined from 5.33 in December million to 4.99 million. As a result after the output of US data, the euro rose slightly and Marlin signal line ahead of the curve came out higher of the negative zone. Now, the price needs a new resistance to turn downward. This may be a balance line on the daily or four-hour chart with an increase of 10-20 points. A possible short-term price exit is expected in the range of 1.1394-1.1417, formed by the resistance on a daily basis and H4 charts. European PMI will be released on Thursday and Mario Draghi will speak at the ECB meeting, where, according to the general expectation of the market, nothing will change in a positive direction. Perhaps today, the price will continue consolidation or correctional growth, and tomorrow the decline will resume. The goals remain to be the same at 1.1302 and below 1.1150 / 95.

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Forecast for GBP / USD pair on January 23, 2019

GBP / USD pair

The British pound took advantage of yesterday's weakness of the dollar and speculatively grew by 63 points. The reason was the pressure of a number of Theresa May Cabinet ministers, threatening to resign, if she tried to block the new Brexit plan (providing for only minor amendments).

Technically, the sterling pound aimed at the resistance of the price channel line to 1.3033 on the daily chart. If the price reaches this level rather quickly, a divergence will be formed with the Marlin oscillator as a sign of a reversal into the medium-term trend. A preliminary signal to the mid-term reversal will be the price fixation under the MACD line at 1.2900 on the four-hour chart. The final level will be the fixation below the MACD line at 1.2830 on the daily chart. In this case, the target to 1.2653 will open, supporting the line of the price channel of the daily timeframe.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on January 23, 2019

AUD / USD pair

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar steadily declined until the signal line of the daily scale Marlin oscillator turned upward from the zero line. On the four-hour chart, this reversal has already been formed in an upward convergence. The corrective growth may continue to the MACD line on the daily chart of 0.7177. This level coincides with the January 14 minimum. If the price consolidates below yesterday's low of 0.7117, a downward trend may strengthen with the goal of 0.7022, which was the minimum of October 26. Such a scenario of price reversal from current levels is also possible since the Marlin signal line on H4 has not yet moved to the positive zone.

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Ethereum: third-wave rally to begin soon

analytics5c482c20961cf.png

As you can see on the two-day chart, there's a huge bearish double zigzag pattern, which could be wave (2). Previously, we had a massive bullish rally in impulsive wave (1). Also, we've got a finished zigzag in wave Y of (2), as shown on the 480-minute chart on the right. In this case, we're at the early stages of another bullish trend.

The last upward price movement is likely the first wave of wave ((i)). Considering a possible ending of the second wave, we should keep an eye on the 1.618 multiple of wave (i) at 241.04 as the nearest target for wave (iii) of ((i)). Meanwhile, it's worth to mention that if the price goes through this level little later on, there'll be a green light for a longer extension in wave (iii).

Wave ((c)) of Y has finished as an impulse with an extension in the third wave, resulting in a developing of a five-wave advance in wave (i). As we can see on the chart above, this price movement subdivides into five waves, which labelled as i-ii-iii-iv-v. Then, a bearish correction took place.

It's likely that wave (ii) has ended as a flat pattern. There're a zigzag in wave a and a double zigzag in wave b. Finally, a bearish impulse in wave c with an ending diagonal pattern in wave ((5)) finished this structure. Also, the 0.618 retracement of wave (i) at 110.50 has acted as support, so there's a pullback from this level, which provides strong evidence of the ending of wave (ii). Under these circumstances, we're going to have the first wave (labelled as i) of wave (iii) in the coming hours.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for January 23. The pair keeps hoping for growth

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Wave counting analysis:

On Tuesday, January 22, trading ended for EUR / USD by 10 bpts. Thus, the tool remains within the framework of the construction of the proposed wave 4, in s. If this is true, then the increase in quotations will resume in the near future as part of wave 5 with targets located around 16 figures. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the minimum of wave 2 will result in the need to clarify the entire wave marking, and the tool will most likely move on to building a new downward trend.

Sales targets:

1.1345 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1315 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1599 - 161.8% Fibonacci

1.1677 - 200.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair remains in the construction stage of the proposed wave 4, in s. However, a sluggish tool reduction can lead to the need to correct the current markup. The main option is to increase within wave 5. If you make a purchase, you must with protective orders under the minimum of wave 2, c, with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1599 and 1.1677, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200, 0% Fibonacci.

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Burning forecast 01/23/2019

The volatility of the EURUSD pair has fallen to the lowest values in recent days - the market is preparing to move.

There are still three main subjects - and none is resolved until the end: 1) the Shutdown in the US - the vote in the Senate on the way out of the budget crisis will begin in the near future; 2) the EU-Britain Agreement - it is most likely that they will accept the Labour Party's proposal and postpone the deadline of Brexit - it's now March 29th.

And finally (3) - the ECB monetary policy meeting: there is no reason for the ECB to change its course to super-soft policy - but even a slight deviation from the soft rate could blow up the market - the ECB's decision on Thursday January 24th.

We are preparing purchases from 1.1415.

Alternative: sell from 1.1300.

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Trading Plan 01/23/2019

The three-month standing of the euro in the range is coming to an end - important events will force the euro to go out of range and look for a new equilibrium zone.

There are three such events:

1) The crisis of the US budget - in the US Senate, a vote on the proposals of Trump and the Democrats must be done before Friday - to find a compromise. There is a lot of pressure to resolve the issue before the start of the new week.

2) Brexit and the British Parliament - it is highly likely that the Parliament will vote to postpone the Brexit term - perhaps for a year.

3) The ECB meeting on Thursday - what are the plans for the current year - amid slowing growth in the US and the EU.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1415.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1300.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 23, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

On Wednesday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1392 is the recoiling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

eurusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, the price will move up. The first upper target of 1.1392 is the recoiling level of 23.6% (yellow dotted line).

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GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. No news on Brexit

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

The pound continues to show a slight increase against the background of statements by the British Prime Minister Theresa May on the changes in Brexit, but there is no support from the major players yet. While trading is above support at 1.2944, the demand for the pound will remain, which will lead to an update of the monthly high around 1.3006, where I recommend taking profits. Any positive news on Brexit could lead to a more dramatic strengthening of GBPUSD, with the update levels 1.3064 and 1.3127. In the event of a decrease under the support area of 1.2944, it is best to look closely at long positions around 1.2894 and at a rebound from 1.2833.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

The update of yesterday's highs with confirmation of the divergence on the MACD indicator will be a direct signal to the opening of short positions in the British pound. However, the main task for the bears will be to return to the support level of 1.2944, which will lead to the formation of a downward trend and the sale of GBP/USD in the area of lows 1.2894 and 1.2833, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of good news on Brexit and the breakdown of the high of 1.3006, I recommend to consider short positions in GBP/USD only after updating the levels of 1.3064 and 1.3127.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted slightly above the 30-day and 50-day moving, but in the current environment it does not mean the continuation of the upward trend in the pound.

Bollinger bands

In case of a decrease in the pound in the first half of the day, the intermediate support will be the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2900.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 23. There is no reference point for further movement

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Yesterday's weak data for the euro area led to selling the European currency, but a larger downward movement did not happen. At present, the first signal to buy EUR/USD will be a breakdown and consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1376, which will lead to a stronger upward correction in the region of the high of 1.1411 and 1.1451, where I recommend taking profits. The formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1339 will also be the reason for buying the European currency. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions to rebound from this year's low around 1.1307.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

The release of fundamental statistics for the eurozone in the morning is not planned. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1376 will be the first signal to open short positions with the main purpose of returning and consolidating below yesterday's low in the area of 1.1339, which will lead to a larger sale of EUR/USD with an exit to the level of 1.1307, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of the euro growth scenario, it is best to return to short positions to rebound from a high of 1.1411.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of GBP / USD for January 23. A pound sterling keeps afloat.

analytics5c481a2568560.png

Wave counting analysis:

On January 22, the GBP / USD pair rose 65 bps. The estimated wave completed with its construction, as well as the entire three-wave segment of the trend. At the same time, the breakthrough of the Fibonacci level of 76.4% will lead to the complication of the uptrend of the trend, which takes its beginning on January 3, and further increase with targets located near the level of 100.0% of Fibonacci. The news background is still not on the side of the pound sterling, however, this does not prevent it from growing in recent weeks. Moreover, at any time, the currency of England may again be under pressure.

Shopping goals:

1.2997 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.3168 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2716 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.2609 - 23.6% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

A pair of GBP / USD shows willingness to build a downward set of waves. I recommend now cautious sales of the instrument, with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2716 and 1.2609. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through the 1.2997 mark will lead to the complication of the uptrend of the trend.

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Simplified wave analysis EUR / CHF for the week of January 23

Large scale graphics:

The latest current wave design of the cross is ascending, starting from September 10th. It is formed along a powerful support zone. The structure in recent months takes the form of the middle part (B), which has a high chance to break through the level of the beginning of the entire wave.

analytics5c4812e6d34a6.jpg

Medium scale graphics:

As part of a larger model, a correction has been formed on the graph since December 11. The wave structure looks complete.

Small scale graphics:

The descending segment of January 11 can be considered as the beginning of the next part of the main trend wave with high probability. The wave has a reversal potential after the completion of the current rollback (B) followed by a price reduction (C).

analytics5c4812fb597d8.jpg

Forecast and recommendations:

The conditions for a change in the short -term trend are formed on the pair chart, which so far excludes lengthy transactions. For supporters of the inter-day style, there is an opportunity to make short-term sales.

Resistance zones:

- 1.1370 / 1.1420

Support areas:

- 1.1230 / 1.1180

Explanations to the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For analysis, 3 consecutive graphs are used. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. On the other hand, the arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. While the solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for 23/01/2019

Trading plan for 23/01/2019:

Markets remain stable in most cases, waiting for new events. The decision of the Bank of Japan did not surprise and passed unnoticed.

The growth leader in the currency market is NZD after a better-than-forecast CPI reading. Indices in Asia were almost still, Shanghai Composite is at Tuesday's closing level. Japanese Nikkei225 loses 0.1 percent.

On Wednesday, the 23rd of January, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors might want to keep an eye on Retail Sales data from Canada, House Prices Index data from the US and Consumer Confidence data from the Eurozone. Moreover, there is a speech from BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent scheduled early in the morning.

USD/JPY analysis for 23/01/2019:

The main event of the night was the Bank Of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes release and BoJ Press Conference.

BoJ has maintained the interest rate at the negative level of -0.10% as expected and the target for 10-year bond yields remained at 0.0%. BoJ cut GDP growth forecasts for the current fiscal year 2018/19 to 0.9%. from 1.4%, and slightly raised forecasts for the next two years. The inflation forecast for 2021 was also lowered.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The BoJ interest rate decision did not have too much impact on the market behavior as the price has bounced from the technical support at the level of 109.15 after the Pin Bar candlestick was made. The bulls have managed to rally towards the level of 109.80 but the last H4 candle looks like a Shooting Star, which might indicate a trend reversal. That's why, despite the fact that the trend is still bullish and the target is seen at the level of 110.18, the bears might take more control over the market once the price break through the local support at the level of 109.48. Then the technical support at 109.15 will be tested again (red arrow scenario). Otherwise, the uptrend should remain intact as the momentum is still positive and strong.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for January 23, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, the trend is working upwards with the first upper target 1.3001 - the upper fractal.

gbpusd-d1-instaforex-companies-group.png

Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis is neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

The trend is working upwards with the first upper target 1.3001 - the upper fractal on Wednesday.

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for January 23, 2019

EUR/USD reached very close to our 1.1320 target. This target was given once 1.14 failed to hold. Price now seems to be turning upwards. In the weekly chart we see price respecting the weekly trend line support and this is a bullish sign.

analytics5c4811714d068.png

Red rectangle - major resistance

Black line - major support trend line

EUR/USD continues to make higher lows since November. Major resistance is at 1.1470-1.15. A beak above it will open the way for a move towards 1.17 at least. Support is critical at 1.13 and if price breaks below it I expect to eventually see a move towards 1.10-1.11. I continue to favor the bullish scenario as long as we trade above 1.13. Risk reward favors bulls now.

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Technical analysis for Gold for January 23, 2019

Gold price has been in an up trend since August and has managed to rise from $1,160 to nearly $1,300 where we find an important Fibonacci retracement level. Although technically we remain in a bullish trend and this price pull back is considered corrective in nature, we should not ignore the bearish scenario.

analytics5c48103d970ac.png

Green rectangle - next target if resistance at $1,300 breaks

Red rectangle - Fibonacci resistance

Gold price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of resistance and got rejected. This is a very important Fibonacci level because around this level we usually see changes in trend. So as long as price remains below the $1,300 resistance area, we remain cautious and the bearish scenario for a deeper pullback remains in play. If price breaks above resistance we should then expect price to reach $1,320. Short-term support is found at $1,270 and any break below it will be a sign of weakness. A move below $1,250-25 will increase the chances of a bigger downtrend in play targeting below $1,160.

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Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 23/01/2019

Bitcoin Elliott Wave analysis for 23/01/2019

Is the correction completed yet?

The main question regarding the BTC/USD pair now is whether the corrective cycle from the level of $3,676 has been completed or not? There was a slight overlap of the wave 1 and wave 2, so this is the last chance count for bulls and if the price will now reverse below the orange trend line again and will not break through the technical resistance at $3,676 soon, then the impulsive count will be invalidated for sure and the corrective cycle will continue (alternative count).

The bullish count invalidating level is seen at $3,438, but it must be cleared in an impulsive way in order to be truly invalidated. So far the price is bouncing from this level as the candlestick formations are now more similar to Pin Bar or Hammer formation, which indicate a possible trend change.

Recommendations:

The buy orders should be still in play, but the level of $3,438 is the one to keep an eye on as any violation of this level will invalidate the bullish impulsive scenario. The targets for bulls are seen at the levels of $3,676 and $3, 757 and $3,832.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 23/01/2019

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD market has hit the technical support at the level of 1.1336 and bounced nicely towards the technical resistance at the level of 1.1371. Moreover, the price has broken through the orange trend line as well, which might indicate the bulls are treating this bounce seriously and might even start to rally once the resistance zone between the levels of 1.1371 - 1.1318 is clearly violated.

The market conditions are extremely oversold and the momentum is negative, which supports the short-term bullish outlook. The larger time frame trend is still bearish, so the ease of movement is to the downside.

Recommendations:

The bulls are trying to take over the market control, so once the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1371 - 1.1380 is clearly violated, there might be another move up towards the level of 1.1414.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com