Brief trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/15/20

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As expected in the previous review, the EUR/USD pair completed the amplitude fluctuation 1.1825/1.1875 with a movement towards the main levels of the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 (lines No. 1, 2 and 3). In this case, the breakdown of the 1.1875 border led to the movement of the euro rate towards the range of 1.1900-1.1910.

The recommendation is considered fulfilled, and the next profit was recorded on the trading Deposit.

Now, the focus of market participants is on the upper border of the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910 (lines No. 1, 2 and 3), since the following movement will depend on the behavior of the quote and the price fixing points.

Based on the obtained data on finding the quote, let's consider a number of possible scenarios for the market development:

First, a price rebound from line No. 3.

A side channel is a natural part of the market, in the structure of which the same steps occur. In this case, we are talking about the price rebound from the 1.1910 area (line No. 3), where the natural basis was repeatedly observed in the market. If the forecast is fulfilled, we will expect a decline towards the values of 1.1810 - 1.1755.

Second, a breakdown of line No. 3, with the price movement to the local high.

As mentioned in previous analytical reviews, the side channel 1.1700/1.1810/1.1910, although it is a reliable natural basis for the market, has already broken through the price of the upward direction, reaching the important level of 1.2000. In the current situation, it is possible to consider a breakdown of the level of 1.1910 with a consolidation above 1.1920, where the prospect of a movement will lead us in the direction of 1.1950-1.1990.

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The GBP/USD pair is at a high stage of activity, where the price rebound from the level of 1.2770 led the quotes to the area of 1.2885, where there was a slowdown with a reversal. In the current situation, there is a characteristic pressure on buyers, which makes it impossible to fully recreate the upward move. The pressure comes from the information background related to the Brexit divorce process, which will continue to support the risk of further weakening of the pound.

Based on the data obtained on the location of the quote and the factors of pressure on the market, it can be assumed that the pound will continue to decline if the price is consolidated below 1.2840, towards the level of 1.2770.

An alternative scenario considers price fluctuations along the level of 1.2885, with an amplitude of 80-100 points.

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Positive mood in the markets is pushing the dollar to decline

The news that Pfizer is working with AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford to resume developing the COVID-19 vaccine has inspired financial markets with a surge of optimism, as demand for risky assets rises while the US dollar is weakening.

At the moment, there is a clear correlation between the demand for risky assets – company shares and the dynamics of the US dollar. If demand grows, then the dollar will be under pressure, which will be clearly reflected in the currency market.

Another factor that exerts downward pressure on the dollar is the Fed's policy aimed at largely stimulating the national economy by targeting inflation. Considering this, we believe that a general decline in market tensions, either in line with the resumption of trials of a vaccine against coronavirus infection, or a general decline in the degree of tension in the markets, will contribute to an increase in demand for company shares with a simultaneous weakening of the dollar.

A two-day meeting of the US regulator begins today. Tomorrow, his decision on the monetary rate will become known, and a press conference by J. Powell will be held. Markets are not expecting not only any changes in monetary policy, but also in the rhetoric of the head of the Central Bank. We believe that without changes and personal confirmation of maintaining the current rate of monetary policy will be favorably received by investors, which will lead to a continued recovery in demand in the stock markets and to a further weakening of the US currency.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone is due today, along with industrial production, export and import price indices, as well as NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and American Industrial Production.

The focus will be on the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. If the indicator shows growth in the expected 6 points in September or even higher, then this will be regarded by the markets as a positive signal and will push up the demand for shares of companies. However, it seems that these dynamics will be supported by investors only in the case of good values for industrial production, which should come out less worse than the forecast of monthly growth of 1.0%.

In general, assessing the situation on the markets, we believe that the restoration of investor interest in buying shares of companies will negatively affect the rate of the US currency.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair is correcting downward. Thus, we consider it possible to buy it from the level of 1.1870 with a likely rise to 1.1920.

The USD/CHF pair found support at 0.9060. We believe that the pair will resume its decline to the level of 0.9020, but it needs to drop below 0.9060 first for this to happen.

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Optimism for the Euro: bulls are in a gloomy state, bears are off to a low start

According to analysts, there are no obstacles for the European currency to stop growth, especially after the recent support from the ECB. However, the "bulls" on the euro, unlike those on the dollar, will have a hard time. Experts believe that in this situation, the euro bears will win if they take the lead in time and do not miss the favorable time for sales.

They believe that the "bulls" on the EUR/USD pair should not count on divergence in economic growth in the Eurozone, although this is the strongest driver for the euro. Such growth is uneven: it is slowing down in the fourth quarter, after a surge in the third quarter of 2020 amid lifting of restrictions related to the COVID-19. Experts believe that this will give the "bears" a head start on the euro, followed by a likely breakdown of the support levels of 1.1800 and 1.1770. If this scenario is implemented, analysts warn that the risks of a Euro correction will increase.

After the ECB meeting and comments from Chairman Christine Lagarde, currency strategists at Goldman Sachs say that the European currency has a chance to benefit from the prolonged weakening of the dollar. The bank is confident that the fair price of the EUR/USD pair should be around 1.3000, and not 1.2000, as previously assumed. They consider the euro undervalued and expect its further rise. Attempts of such growth are periodically recorded by the market. This morning, the EUR/USD pair started at 1.1894-1.1885. This is below the recent weekly high of 1.1910, recorded after the meeting of the European regulator. Later, the euro tried to accelerate and rose to the level of 1.1898, striving with varying success to new peaks.

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On the other hand, the markets are disappointed and the euro "bulls" are having difficulties due to the reaction of C. Lagarde and several representatives of the ECB, who are not too worried about the potential price growth of the euro to 1.2000. Last Friday, the single currency completed near the level of 1.1800. After the decision of the ECB, the euro briefly exceeded the level of 1.1900, but has now surrendered its positions. The European currency is still 8% more expensive than at the start of the COVID-19. Against this background, investors were worried by the excessive optimism of C. Lagarde and the similar position of the ECB on the rise in the euro. The market expected more decisive actions from the regulator aimed at lowering the exchange rate of the single currency.

As a result, the actions of the central bank were assessed as "hawkish", although C. Lagarde and ECB's representatives did not strive for this. At the meeting, optimism was expressed about the pace of recovery of the euro economy, which helped the regulator to adjust the forecast for this year. According to current estimates, the eurozone's GDP will decline by 8% in 2020. Analysts say that this is slightly less than the previous figure of 8.7%.

Meanwhile, markets' disappointment with regard to the regulator was facilitated by not very inspiring macro statistics. In the last month of summer, the inflation rate in the region went into a negative zone, falling to -0.2%. In July this year, this indicator was confidently kept at the level of 0.4%. In this situation, the ECB has revised its inflation forecast for 2021 to 1% from the previous 0.8%. This alarmed experts, since the statistics for August 2020 record a decline in price pressure. In such a situation, the growing euro only worsened the situation, slowing down the rise in import prices and increasing the cost of export products.

The growth of the European economy by 1%, despite the optimism of the ECB leaders, is insufficient for a sustainable long-term recovery of the region. Experts do not exclude the introduction of additional measures of monetary incentives in the near future. The assistance can be implemented in the form of cutting interest rates or in the form of an increase in the asset repurchase program. However, the current situation is capable of negatively affecting the dynamics of the euro, and then the "bulls" and "bears" will have to fight for leadership. It is unknown which of them will win the market over to their side, but experts emphasize that the confrontation promises to be serious.

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Gold to rally even higher and could reach $ 4,000 by 2023

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Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts gold to surpass silver by the end of the year, saying that it could also reach a price of $ 4,000 by 2023.

"The soft policy of the US Fed provides a solid foundation for gold, and less so for silver and copper. Industrial metals are dependent on additional financial stimulus and global economic recovery, but are increasingly vulnerable to a normal return to the stock market average, " Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloombers, said.

After surpassing a price of $ 2,000 an ounce, gold was stuck trading in a range between $ 1,900 to $ 1,990 an ounce. "Despite a few weeks hiatus from mainstream price action, gold still performs better than silver in the second half of the year," noted McGlone.

For silver to consistently outperform gold for the rest of the year, the market needs to see a combination of rising bond yields, a peak in the dollar, declining stock market volatility and continued global economic growth. However, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, such a scenario is unlikely.

"By the end of the year, gold should continue to rise, especially compared to silver, copper and non-ferrous metals, which we believe are more at risk from a volatile stock market and slowing global growth," McGlone said. "If stock prices decline, gold's advantage should increase as non-ferrous metals come under pressure," he added.

Thus, the bullish rally in gold is just beginning. Since it bottomed out around $ 700 in 2008 and peaked around $ 1,900 in 2011, growth at a similar rate of 2.7 times may occur by 2023. Therefore, this year's closing price of about $ 1,470 could reach $ 4,000 by that year.

In addition, the stock market will play a large role in gold's rise in the future, especially when investors turn towards the yellow metal.

"Historically, stocks end up in a bear market. The rapid rise in stocks over the past few years has left gold on the sidelines. The outlook for gold appears to increase in the event of an extended period of asset class swaps, " McGlone said.

Despite this, Bloomberg warned that $ 2,000 an ounce would prove strong resistance for bulls, as the yellow metal looks overbought.

Some of the main factors that support gold include the soft ECB policy, uncertainty over the V-shaped economy recovery, fiscal stimulus and stock market volatility.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on GBP / USD for September 15, 2020

The pair continued its upward movement on Monday after testing the resistance level 1.2919 (red bold line) then rolled back down by 71 points. Today, the upward movement may continue. No news is expected as per the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.2848 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the resistance level 1.2929 (red bold line). In case of reaching this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - up;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may continue to move upward from the level of 1.2848 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the resistance level f 1.2929 (red bold line). In case of reaching this level, the upward trend may continue with the next target of 1.3019 - a 76.4% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Another possible scenario is an upward movement with the target at the resistance level 1.2929 (red bold line). From here, the price may move downwards with the target of 1.2866 - a 50.0% pullback level (red dotted line).

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Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 15

Trading recommendations for EUR / USD on September 15

Analysis of transactions

Strong report on euro area's industrial production led to a slight rise of EUR / USD in the market. Thus, long positions from 1.1859 brought about 25-30 pips of profit.

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Quite a number of important statistics are due today, among which are consumer sentiment and consumer confidence in the eurozone. Such will have a significant impact on the euro, and could lead to a new wave of growth in the EUR / USD pair. It is best to continue concentrating on long positions when trading.

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  • Set long positions from 1.1897 (green line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.1935.
  • Sell shorts from 1.1875 (red line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.1833. Downward movement will take place on the grounds of weak data on the eurozone.

Trading recommendations for GBP / USD on September 15

Analysis of transactions

The upward movement of GBP / USD was quite large, so long positions from 1.2845 brought about 50 pips of profit yesterday.

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One important report for the United Kingdom today is the state of its labor market, which, if recorded a drop in unemployment, may lead to a new wave of growth in GBP / USD.

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  • Open long positions from 1.2877 (green line on the chart), and take profit at the level of 1.2920 (thicker green line on the chart). A rise will occur if the report on UK labor market comes out better than the forecasts.
  • Sell shorts from 1.2835 (red line on the chart), and take profit around the level of 1.2777.
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Technical Analysis of ETH/USD for September 15, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

DeFi Swap is now available on the Ethereum network and offers many interesting features that can be useful to cryptocurrency users:

Swap: Users can trade any two supported tokens after paying an exchange fee of 0.3%;

Pool: each pool consists of the reserves of two ERC-20 tokens and issues an ERC-20 token as proof of proportional possession of the underlying reserves;

Boost: allows you to increase profits in the CRO DeFi;

APY: Liquidity Providers (LPs) can estimate their profit in the CRO DeFi;

Analytics: Users can analyze DeFi Swap CRO protocol token / pair data including liquidity, trading volume etc.

Liquidity providers (LP) will be rewarded with a share of the collected 0.3% trading volume in the relevant liquidity pools. They can also stake CROs to increase their profits (up to 20x).

The service is not available to residents and citizens of the following markets: United States, Hong Kong, Singapore, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Crimea Region, Cuba, Congo, Dem. Rep. Ecuado, r Eritrea, Guinea, Republic of Guinea, Bissau, Hong Kong, SAR, Iran, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Mainland China, Mali, Burma, (Myanmar) Namibia, Nepal, North Korea, Singapore, Somalia, Sudan, Sudan South, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.

Technical Market Outlook:

The ETH/USD pair keeps trading inside of the ascending channel and it was recently capped around the level of $388 due to the upper channel line resistance level. The market had made a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern at this level and reversed towards the lower channel line. Currently, the market is consolidating in a narrow zone between the levels of $355.24 - $369.37 and due to the fact, that the last move inside the channel is corrective in nature, more weakness is expected in ETH/USD pair. The next technical support is seen at the level of $332.28 (outside of the channel). The key demand zone is seen between the levels of $305.20 - $321.95 and if violated, then the next key long term support is seen at the level of $288.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $460.14

WR2 - $422.13

WR1 - $395.03

Weekly Pivot - $357.60

WS1 - $326.67

WS2 - $291.16

WS3 - $261.17

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly and monthly time frame trend on the ETH/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. The key mid-term technical support, seen at the level of $364.95 had been violated, but all the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $500.

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Technical Analysis of BTC/USD for September 15, 2020

Crypto Industry News:

Bitcoin enthusiasts in Hong Kong have come up with a new way to raise public awareness of Bitcoin on a large scale.

Starting from September 11, three double-decker trams decorated with the BTC logo began to run on the streets of Hong Kong. Each of them, apart from the Bitcoin logo, contains a certain message whose task is to educate the public.

Earlier in August, the well-known hedge fund Grayscale also launched a massive educational campaign on Bitcoin in the US.

As part of an educational campaign launched by the Bitcoin Association of Hong Kong, 20 giant billboards will also be created in various public places. The trams themselves will be entirely decorated with the BTC logo and will run on different routes for the next four weeks.

The campaign focuses in part on communicating the importance of the deficit phenomenon and how it relates to healthy monetary policy. One of the billboards refers to the American money printing in 2020. We can read on it:

"More U.S. dollars have been printed in 2020 than were in existence in 2009. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. "

A publication that foreshadowed the event in a well-known local newspaper said the cryptocurrency community hoped to initiate a conversation about what role cryptocurrency could play in providing economic infrastructure for a new, rapidly digitizing global market.

Technical Market Outlook:

The BTC/USD pair has broken out from the narrow range located between the levels of $9,825 - $10,586 and made a new local high at the level of $10,779. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of $10,890 and $10,940 and the key short-term technical support is seen at the level of $9,922. The market conditions are oversold and the momentum remains neutral on H4 time frame chart. The weekly time frame trend remains up.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - $11,302

WR2 - $10,908

WR1 - $10,609

Weekly Pivot - $10,206

WS1 - $9,887

WS2 - $9,466

WS3 - $9,157

Trading Recommendations:

The weekly trend on the BTC/USD pair remains up and there are no signs of trend reversal, so buy orders are preferred in the mid-term. All the dynamic corrections are still being used to buy the dips. The next mid-term target for bulls is seen at the level of $13,712. The key mid-term technical support is seen at the level of $10,000.

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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on September 15? Plan for opening and closing trades on

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair unexpectedly moved up Monday night and is currently approaching the upper line of the 1.17-1.19 sideways channel again. Therefore, in the next few hours, the pair can either rebound off this line again, or break it for the third time in the last month and a half and attempt to resume forming an upward trend. It is not clear which of these options will be implemented. Fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds are practically non-existent at the beginning of the new week, so it is rather strange to see that there is a trend during overnight trading. Nevertheless, our small trendline continues to be relevant, and we still do not recommend trading up, since it is more worthwhile to sell the pair in the upper area of the side channel, rather than buy it. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the pair cannot continue moving up. The Federal Reserve meeting and Jerome Powell's speech may decide the fate of the euro and the dollar for the next few days.

Novice traders won't have much to pay attention to on September 15. Fundamentally more interesting events are currently taking place in the UK or are related to it. Everything is relatively calm in the European Union and the United States. We only have secondary reports on economic sentiment in Germany and the EU from the ZEW institute, and in the afternoon - industrial production for July in the US. By and large, everyone in the United States has already focused on the upcoming presidential elections, and few people are interested in other topics. Democrats and Republicans have finally quarreled, they still can not agree on a package of new economic assistance to all unemployed, small businesses, schools and other structures and people affected by the coronavirus crisis, which should have been adopted by August 1. Therefore, the US dollar is under pressure from the market again. Take note that the coronavirus has only slightly receded in America, but it was not possible to suppress or stop it. The total number of cases has already exceeded 6.5 million, 30-45,000 new cases are recorded daily. Thus, we would say that the probability of overcoming the 1.19 level and continuing to move up is greater than 50%.

Possible scenarios for September 15:

1) Novice traders are advised to not consider buying the pair at this time, since the price rebounded off the 1.1903 level, which is the upper line of the side channel, and there is a high probability that it will continue to move down. Also, the price is just around the 1.19 level, which means that the probability of a reversal and downward movement is higher. Nevertheless, once the 1.19 level has been overcome, then it will be possible to consider new longs on the pair and you can count on forming an upward trend while aiming for 1.1918, 1.1947 and 1.2011.

2) Selling still looks more attractive, only because traders are unable to overcome the 1.1903 level. However, the downward trend is not expressed by any technical patterns (trend lines, channels, etc.). We only have an upward trend line. If the price settles below it, this will be a signal for new shorts while aiming for support levels of 1.1835 and 1.1806. In general, trading is not too volatile.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

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Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for September 15, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has hit the level of 1.2768 twice, which is a part of the key short-term demand zone located between the levels of 1.2747 - 1.2889. Any clear violation of this zone will lead to sell-off continuation towards the level of 1.2604 - 1.2587 which is the key long-term support. Moreover, the market keeps trading below the trend line despite the oversold conditions, so the bears are in full control of the market. The immediate technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2979 - 1.3017.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3535

WR2 - 1.3399

WR1 - 1.3036

Weekly Pivot - 1.2895

WS1 - 1.2525

WS2 - 1.2380

WS3 - 1.1994

Trading Recommendations:

On the GBP/USD pair the main, multi-year trend is down, which can be confirmed by the down candles on the monthly time frame chart. The key long-term technical resistance is still seen at the level of 1.3518. Only if one of these levels is clearly violated, the main trend might reverse (1.3518 is the reversal level) or accelerate towards the key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1903 (1.2589 is the key technical support for this scenario).

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for September 15, 2020

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the lows made at the level of 1.1753 and hit the level of 61% Fibonacci retracement located at 1.1912. Nevertheless, the bulls were unable to break through this key retracement and the rally was reversed. The bulls are still trying to resume the rally, but the level of 1.1912 has not been violated yet. Any intraday breakout below the level of 1.1813 will accelerate the sell-off towards the level of 1.1753 again, so it is worth to keep an eye on the next developments. The weekly trend remains up,

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2085

WR2 - 1.1993

WR1 - 1.1923

Weekly Pivot - 1.1829

WS1 - 1.1753

WS2 - 1.1670

WS3 - 1.1589

Trading Recommendations:

On the EUR/USD pair the main trend is up, which can be confirmed by almost 10 weekly up candles on the weekly time frame chart and 4 monthly up candles on the monthly time frame chart. Nevertheless, weekly chart is recently showing some weakness in form of a several Pin Bar candlestick patterns at the recent top. This means any corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1445. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on EUR / USD for September 15, 2020

The pair traded upward on Monday and tested the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (red dotted line). Today, the price may continue to move upward. News on the euro is expected at 09:00 UTC as per the economic calendar.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

The market may continue to move upward from the level of 1.1868 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move upward with the next target at the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

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Figure: 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- Indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- Volumes - up;

- Candlestick analysis - down;

- Trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly chart - up.

General conclusion:

Today, the price may move upward from the level of 1.1868 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target at the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move upward with the next target at the upper fractal 1.2012 (red dotted line).

Another possible scenario is upon reaching the historical resistance level of 1.1912 (blue dotted line), the price may move downwards with the target at the support level 1.1787 (white thick line).

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Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for September 15, 2020

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We are looking for a break above minor resistance at 136.60 to confirm that red wave iv/ finally has completed and a new impulsive rally in red wave v/ to above 142.72 has begun. Yesterday we saw a new test of the minor resistance at 136.60 and once again it rejected this test showing us the importance of this resistance, but once GBP/JPY finally breaks above it, then a rally to key-resistance at 138.36 is next and above here confirms the completion of red wave iv/ and the onset of red wave v/.

R3: 137.47

R2: 136.59

R1: 136.14

Pivot: 135.75

S1: 135.42

S2: 134.94

S3: 134.80

Trading recommendation:

We are long GBP from 135.55 with our stop placed at 135.00

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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for September 15, 2020

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The correction in wave ii continues as expected. We are looking for a decline in the support-area between 124.82 - 125.18 from where the next impulsive rally towards at least 129.24 is expected.

In the short-term, we expect minor resistance at 125.90 to be able to cap the upside for the final dip into the expected target-area between 124.82 - 125.18 and then take-off again.

R3: 126.43

R2: 126.12

R1: 125.90

Pivot: 125.64

S1: 125.40

S2: 125.18

S3: 124.82

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 124.41 with our stop placed at 124.35

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USD/CHF Price Movement On Sept 15, 2020.

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The USD/CHF pair is decreasing to the 0.9057 level as its first target and the 0.8998 level as its second target. It is moving bellow the 21 periods Exponential Moving Average. The pait continues to edge lower if it does not rise and close above the 0.9109 level. The overall bias for USD/CHF is bearish.

(Disclaimer)

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NZD/USD Price Movement On Sept 15, 2020.

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On the 4 hour chart, the Kiwi is now rising to the 0.6715-0.6760 levels. It is moving above the 200 periods Exponential Moving Average. The pair is likely to climb if it doesn not decline and close bellow the 0.6598 level.

(Disclaimer)

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Purchases of GBP USD. Goals and prospects.

A work in the upward direction is corrective, however, there's a probability that the pair will exceed 70% to make the purchases profitable. Yesterday, a model was formed for opening a long position. The main plan for the next few days is to hold the purchase. A good target for fixing is the wcz 1/2 1.2998 - 1.2977. Since the trade is open in the direction of correction, it is important to move it to break even in time. A retest of yesterday's high will be enough to achieve this.

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For the first time, absorbing Friday's drop will be problematic because a major player will protect their positions on the first test of the offer level. For this reason, locking in purchases when Thursday's opening level is reached is the optimal strategy.

The movement going down will remain a medium-term momentum as long as the pair is trading below the wcz 1/2. This indicates the need to search for a sell pattern when the full correction phase is formed. Sales can be searched after the wcz 1/2 test. It will allow you to get favorable prices and continue working in a downward momentum.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 15, 2020

The euro, having felt little resistance, grew by 18 points on Monday, following the momentum of the previous days. Meanwhile, British MPs in the second reading passed a law on the internal market last night, contrary to international law (which is what Prime Minister Boris Johnson meant when he spoke of the superiority of British laws). The law is sent to the authorities, and this cannot but put pressure on both the pound and the euro.

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The price is above the red balance indicator line on the daily chart, above the MACD line (blue), but the Marlin oscillator signal line touches its own trend line near the border of the growth area. The price could reverse from the current levels. If the price moves under the MACD line, below the 1.1800 level, it will cause the euro to fall towards the first target of 1.1650.

But this has not happened yet, therefore, this plan may not be realized and the price will continue to rise to the upper border of the price channel in the 1.1995 area.

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The price settled above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, while Marlin is in the growing trend zone. Breaking through the September 10 high (1.1917) is a signal that the price could rise to 1.1995. But the price did not break far from the MACD line, and the line itself moves horizontally, that is, the prospects for a short-term trend is not very noticeable. The option that the price would move down has a 45% probability. We are waiting for the development of events. Probably, the final choice will take place at the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

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Forecast for AUD/USD on September 15, 2020

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar practically stood still yesterday, hesitating to tackle the MACD line at 0.7322. Such an attempt may take place today and achieving it will provoke further growth to the upper border of the price channel in the 0.7388 area. But with equal probability, the price may turn down from the current levels, since the signal line of the Marlin oscillator may not enter the positive trend zone, or gain a foothold in it.

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The price is trying to break out of the resistance of the MACD line on the four-hour chart. But we can only receive a signal for growth when the price breaks through the area above the 0.7326 level, which is the September 10 high and the resistance of the MACD line on the daily chart.

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If the price fails to break through the area above the strong resistance of 0.7326, a reversal may follow. Here, the signal level is the September 10 low, settling below it opens the bearish target at 0.7110 - the August 12 low.

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Forecast for USD/JPY on September 15, 2020

USD/JPY

Unfortunately, the yen did not follow the rising stock market on Monday. The US S&P 500 Index gained 1.27%, but the USD/JPY pair fell 40 points. The Japanese Nikkei 225 is losing 0.61% this morning.

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The price settled below the balance indicator line on the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator entered the downward trend zone. The decline is aiming for the magnetic point where two lines of price channels intersect - an upward and downward one at the price of 105.18.

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The four-hour chart shows the price falling below the signal level of 105.80 (September 9 low), all indicators are directed downward, the price is heading towards the specified target point.

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Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 15. Boris Johnson is one against all.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.

CCI: -47.0009

On the first trading day of the week, the British pound began to correct after a 700-point fall, which began on September 1. The Heiken Ashi indicator turned upward, which was the beginning of a corrective movement towards the moving average line. At the same time, the trend at this time remains frankly downward, and the technical picture may look very unconventional in the near future. Let's start with the fact that after a 700-point drop, an upward correction of 200-300 points will be absolutely normal. However, 200-300 points up mean that the price will be fixed above the moving average, which will mean a change in the upward trend. At the same time, if this correction takes place at all, then the main downward movement will resume after it, which can continue for as long as necessary, given the current fundamental background from the UK. And most importantly, the fundamental background from the UK. If it remains the same as in the last two weeks, then nothing good can be expected for the pound in the near future. Thus, if tomorrow we receive new data on the "Johnson bill" or on the complete failure of negotiations with the European Union, the pound may resume falling on the same day without any correction by 200-300 points. If Britain gives a small respite to the pound/dollar pair, the correction may just have time to complete in time.

The most important and significant factor for the British currency at this time is the fundamental background. The euro/dollar pair clearly shows that the US dollar is not getting more expensive. Thus, it is the latest events related to the UK that are the reasons for another fall in the British currency, which in the last six months has shown signs of life thanks to the "four crises" in the United States. In fact, over the past few months, traders have not reacted even to the fact that there will be no free trade agreement between the European Union and America with a 99.9% probability. We have repeatedly said that London operates on the principle of "either such an agreement as we want or none". At the same time, as almost all experts, economists, and political scientists note, it is London that first needs a trade agreement, and not Brussels. Some experts believe that Boris Johnson is bluffing in this way to force Brussels to be more accommodating in negotiations. If this is true, then the poker player from Johnson is very weak, since the European Union "did not fall for" any of Johnson's bluffs. Further, all as one, experts say that without a trade agreement with the European Union, the British economy will be dealt with another powerful blow. If this strike had been delivered at a normal and quiet time, it could have been called a "tolerable threat". However, the economy will receive this blow after four years of ordeal related to Brexit, after the "coronavirus crisis", during which the economy has already lost 20% in the second quarter. Thus, it is very difficult to understand what goals are actually pursued by the British Prime Minister, who now has full power in the country.

In the near future, it will become known how the parliament voted for the controversial bill on the "internal market of Great Britain", which directly violates the agreement with the European Union and any principles of international law. Only conservatives can vote for this bill, as the opposition has harshly criticized this desire of London to violate agreements with the European Union. Five former Prime Ministers of Great Britain immediately criticized the bill. "The adoption of this act by the Parliament and the intention to violate an international agreement is the last option that can be considered. This should be a solution for a completely extreme case," said David Cameron, during whose rule the referendum on leaving the EU was held. Theresa May, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and John Major have previously harshly criticised the "Johnson act". All of them said that violating the principles of international law would undermine confidence in the UK and make it a country with which it is undesirable to conclude any agreements. We absolutely agree with this judgment. Most likely, if the high-profile bill is passed, then any negotiations with the UK after that will be conducted in an extremely strict manner with the requirement to provide many guarantees of the agreement's implementation. In any case, any future negotiations in London will be very difficult. Johnson himself believes the following: "If we do not agree to the terms of the European Union, it will establish a full-fledged customs border in the Irish sea, resorting to a radical interpretation of the protocol on Northern Ireland. We are informed that the EU will not only impose tariffs on goods traveling to Northern Ireland from the UK, but may also stop food supplies along this route." The Prime Minister of Great Britain says that the European Union can stop the transport of food from the UK to Northern Ireland, arranging a "food blockade". Johnson fears that such actions will "destroy the economic and territorial integrity of the UK" and "seriously threaten peace and stability in Northern Ireland". Johnson may even be right, however, there is a reasonable question: why did you have to agree to the protocol on Northern Ireland at all, if it does not suit London so much? And here we are forced to return once again to what Johnson's main goal was - to "separate" the Kingdom and the EU. It doesn't matter in what ways and with what consequences. Basically, he continues to just walk along the path, which glows red lights in complete darkness. Only the blind can't see it. Boris Johnson will continue to do everything just to leave the EU. In general, the United Kingdom, after one of the most high-profile processes of the 21st century (Brexit), can become a country with undermined confidence in the international arena and with an economy in deep crisis. We can only hope that the British Parliament will refuse to vote "for" the "Johnson bill". Fortunately for Britain, there are still politicians in the Conservative Party who are not ready to blindly follow the Prime Minister, who is leading the country at full speed to international scandal and shame. But more recently, Boris Johnson criticized the Chinese authorities for violating the agreements on Hong Kong, depriving the city of autonomous status with a new bill "on national security". As practice shows, Johnson himself calmly violates any agreements.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 167 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Tuesday, September 15, therefore, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.2693 and 1.3027. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals the end of the round of upward correction within the downward trend.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2817

S2 – 1.2695

S3 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2939

R2 – 1.3062

R3 – 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has started a correction on the 4-hour timeframe, which may be very short. Thus, today it is recommended to open short positions with targets of 1.2817 and 1.2695 as soon as the Heiken Ashi indicator turns downward. It is recommended to trade the pair for an increase with targets of 1.3062 and 1.3184 if the price returns to the area above the moving average line.

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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 15. The epidemic in the US is not receding.

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 100.1827

On September 14, the European currency paired with the US dollar was trading with a minimal upward bias and low volatility. Traders frankly rested on the first trading day of the week. However, in addition to the low market activity on Monday, we once again draw traders' attention to the fact that the euro/dollar pair has been trading in the range of 1.1700-1.1900 for more than a month and a half. This side channel is not "textbook". Quotes left it twice, however, the price spends 90% of the time inside it. Therefore, we once again state the flat and the fact that with the current fundamental background, traders do not know how to trade the pair in the medium and long term. On the first trading day of the week, there were no important macroeconomic publications either in the US or in the European Union. However, 80% of macroeconomic statistics are still ignored by traders. The latest example was the US inflation on Friday. The consumer price index exceeded the forecast values, however, this did not help the US dollar in any way, although inflation in recent weeks has again become a very important report and indicator for the US and EU economies.

What should be highlighted from the latest important events that affect the foreign exchange market? First, the fact that many negotiations that have been held recently tend to fail. It seems that many participants in the negotiation process set their initial goal not to agree. Now in America, Republicans and Democrats cannot agree on the volume of the next package of assistance to the American economy. In other words, we have written much more often in recent years that certain negotiations ended in failure than in success. In the United States, the situation remains quite difficult. The epidemiological crisis is slowly subsiding. Every day, fewer cases of new "coronavirus" diseases are recorded. However, the problem is that this is only a weakening, not an end to the pandemic. In many European countries, it was possible to localize the COVID virus and now there are 1-2 thousand new cases a day. In the States, the number of diseases has decreased from 60-80 thousand a day to 30-50 thousand.

The situation with the social crisis has also improved slightly. Most cities in the United States managed to suppress (by peaceful means) rallies and protests caused by racist scandals. If mass riots continue in several cities, these are isolated cases that are not of national significance. The economic crisis at this time continues to remind us of itself. In addition, the most important thing that matters both for traders and readers is that the US economy has fallen so much that it is now unclear and unknown exactly how long it will take for its recovery and how to correlate the growth rates of the recovery of the EU and US economies? It is no secret that often the exchange rate of a currency pair is formed due to supply and demand for both currencies, which is based on the results of comparing the two issuing economies of these currencies. For example, until 2020, the US dollar had been rising in price for a long time and this could be explained by the GDP indicators of the EU and the US (in the States, the growth rate was higher), the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB (in the States, the policy was tougher). Thus, the US currency became more expensive logically. At the same time, we have ultra-soft policies of both central banks, and the fall of both economies by record values over the past few decades. We have already noted that the European economy lost only 12% in the second quarter, while the American economy lost 32%. Based on this data, the US dollar has quite rightly fallen by 12 cents over the past 4 months. However, what's next? This information has been worked out and we need to move on. And there is no data on the growth rate of a particular economy's recovery. How can you figure out which economy is recovering faster? GDP data is released every three months, and monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed are unlikely to tighten in the next 2-3 years. Thus, market participants can only guess how the recovery of both economies is proceeding.

Now we will talk about the political crisis until the presidential elections on November 3. We believe that both candidates (Donald Trump and Joe Biden) have already done everything they could, and most Americans have already made conclusions and made a decision about who they will vote for. Social research continues to show that Joe Biden is in the lead, and from our point of view, this is fair. We continue to believe that the biggest disadvantage of Trump is that he is already the president of the country and the results of his presidential term are a failure. We could say that Trump is not to blame for the "coronavirus epidemic" and "coronavirus crisis", however, it was his government that did not attach importance to this virus and its possible consequences in advance. Trump says that he knew about the fatality and danger of the virus for a long time and did not want to tell the truth to Americans, so as not to sow panic, however, why was the country not prepared for either a pandemic or an economic crisis? Because Trump was most concerned about the economy, since it is his main trump card in the election. Right now, the economy is the weakest card for Trump, and it will be extremely difficult to get any dividends from it.

Thus, the general conclusions for the US currency are not comforting. The situation in America has not changed dramatically for the better in recent weeks. Thus, traders still have little reason to buy the US dollar. Plus uncertainty. No one knows for sure who will become president, and what awaits the country in 2021 and later.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of September 15 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1790 and 1.1944. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator back down signals a possible new round of downward movement in the remaining side channel of 1.17-1.19.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1719

S3 – 1.1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1963

R2 – 1.2085

R3 – 1.2207

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has fixed above the moving average line and retains the chances of growth to the area of 1.1944-1.1963. Thus, as long as the Heiken Ashi indicator is directed upwards, it is recommended to stay in long positions with these goals. It is recommended to consider again options for opening short positions if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with targets of 1.1790-1.1719.

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Comprehensive analysis of movement options for the commodity currencies AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD (H4) on September

Minute operational scale (H4)

What will happen to commodity currencies in the second half of September? Overview of the movement options for AUD/USD & USD/CAD & NZD/USD (H4) on September 15, 2020.

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Australian dollar vs US dollar

The Australian dollar AUD/USD will continue to develop its movement within the boundaries of the equilibrium zone from September 15, 2020 (0.7240 - 0.7275 - 0.7305) of the Minuette operational scale forks and channel 1/2 Median Line (0.7280 - 0.7320 - 0.7360) of the Minute operational scale forks, taking into account the direction of the range breakdown:

  • resistance level of 0.7305 - the upper boundary of ISL38.2 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • support level of 0.7280 - the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minute operational scale fork.

The markup of the options for the AUD/USD movement, based on the development of the above levels, is presented on the animated chart.

The upward movement of AUD/USD will continue after the breakout of the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minute operational scale fork - resistance level of 0.7360 - and will be directed to the initial lines - SSL Minuette (0.7415) and SSL Minute (0.7430).

A continuation of the downward movement of the Australian dollar will be possible after breaking the lower border ISL61.8 of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - support level of 0.7240 - and it will be directed to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (0.7200 - 0.7130 - 0.7060) of the Minute operational scale fork.

The options for the movement of AUD/USD from September 15, 2020 are shown on an animated chart.

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US dollar vs Canadian dollar

The development of the movement of the Canadian dollar USD/CAD from September 15, 2020 will continue in the boundaries of channels 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork (1.3110 - 1.3140 - 1.3165) and Minute (1.3115 - 1.3165 - 1.3225) with respect to the direction of the breakout of a tight range:

  • resistance level of 1.3175 - 1/2 Median Line Minute;
  • support level of 1.3165 - the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork.

Details of working out the above levels of fork lines are shown on the animated chart.

The downward movement of USD/CAD can be continued in the event of a breakdown of the support level of 1.3110 at the lower border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minuette and will be directed to the equilibrium zone (1.3065 - 1.3020 - 1.2975) of the Minuette operational scale fork.

The development of the upward movement of the Canadian dollar will take place after the breakdown of the resistance level of 1.3225 at the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute and will be directed to the goals:

  • local maximum 1.3259;
  • UTL control line (1.3265) of the Minuette operational scale fork;
  • lower limit of ISL38. 2 (1.3300) of the Minute operational scale fork.

Options for USD/CAD movement from September 15, 2020 are shown on the animated chart.

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New Zealand dollar vs US dollar

The development of the movement of the New Zealand dollar NZD/USD from September 15, 2020 will occur depending on the development and direction of the range:

  • resistance level of 0.6715 - the lower border of ISL38.2 of the equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork;
  • support level of 0.6695 - the upper border of the channel 1/2 Median Line Minute.

The breakdown ISL38.2 Minute - resistance level of 0.6715 - option of the movement of NZD/USD to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone of the Minute operational scale fork (0.6715 - 0.6750 - 0.6786) and Minuette (0.6786 - 0.6820 - 0.6855).

If the support level of 0.6695 will make the actual development of the movement in the New Zealand dollar in the channel 1/2 Median Line (0.6695 - 0.6675 - 0.6635) of the Minute operational scale fork relevant with the prospect of reaching and updating the local minimum of 0.6598.

The markup of the NZD/USD movement options from September 15, 2020 is shown on the animated chart.

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The review is compiled without taking into account the news background, the opening of trading sessions of the main financial centers and it is not a guide to action (placing "sell" or "buy" orders).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com