Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.33 versus 96.92 early Thursday), higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.996% versus 1.920% late Wednesday), fewer-than-expected 282,000 US jobless claims in the week ended 21 March (versus forecast 290,000), and a stronger-than-expected rise in Markit flash US composite PMI (58.5 in March from 57.2 in February versus the forecast of 57.0). Besides, Fed's Lockhart said that stronger US economy means that summer Fed's meetings are "in play" for possible rate hike. Fed's Bullard said the interest rates should be raised soon as there are risks of holding them near zero for too long. The kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investors' appetite for risk. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the firmer commodity prices and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, a five-day moving average is above a 15-day moving average and is advancing but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7530. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7455. The pivot point stands at 0.7620. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7675 and the second target at 0.7750.


Resistance levels:

0.7675

0.7750

0.78

Support levels:


0.7530

0.7455

0.7405


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 27, 2015

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to consolidate in higher range after hitting one-month low 0.9484 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the comment from SNB's Fritz Zurbrugg that Switzerland is facing difficult times, a short period of deflation following January's unwinding of the EUR/CJF currency peg, improved dollar sentiment, Swissie sales on cross trades versus major currencies, negative Swiss interest rates, and threat of Swiss National Bank CHF-selling intervention. But USD/CHF gains are tempered by the positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed, the MACD is bearish but bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Thursday, stochastics is turning bullish at oversold levels.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to be trading in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9720 and the second target at 0.7765. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7525. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7485. The pivot point is at 0.7570.


Resistance levels:

0.9720

0.9760

0.9820


Support levels:

0.9525

0.9485

0.9425


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Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for March 27, 2015

GBPJPYM30.png


Fundamental overview:
GBP/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the diminished investors' appetite for risk, weaker EUR/USD undertone, and export sales of Japan. But EUR/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish but stochastics is turning neutral.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 176. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 175.45. The pivot point stands at 177.55. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 178.30 and the second target at 179.30.


Resistance levels:

178.30

179.30

178.65

Support levels:
176

175.45

175


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Daily analysis of USDX for March 27, 2015

The daily chart shows us a decisive formation of the USDX's future trend. As we stated in the last article, the support level at 96.60 could produce a strong rebound on this instrument and eventually, the USDX could resume the bullish bias and also, to perform rallies towards the resistance zone around 98.01. This could be done, as the MACD indicator in a negative territory is starting to show magenta-color levels.


USDXDaily.png




The USDX recovered from losses during yesterday's session and now. It faced the resistance level at 97.90. Early today, the USDX found strong resistance in that zone and did a pullback that could make it to test the support level at 97.19. If the USDX does a breakout to that level, it could reach the support zone around 96.63.


USDXH1.png




Daily chart's resistance levels: 98.01 / 99.12


Dailychart's support levels: 96.60 / 95.53


H1 chart's resistance levels: 97.90 / 98.36


H1 chart's support levels: 97.19 / 96.63






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USD Index breaks with a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 97.19, take profit is at 96.63, and stop loss is at 97.72.


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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for March 27, 2015

The GBP/USD pair has been trapped in the low range that we mentioned in the latest article. The daily chart is still showing a strong bearish structure, as the 200 SMA is still pointing to the downside. Remember that the GBP/USD pair is forming a lower low pattern.


GBPUSDDaily.png




It's not a secret that the support zone around1.4842 is a very strong buying territory and that's why we have been watching for a rejection of the price over the last days. Now, the pair could reach the resistance level at 1.4921 and its trying to consolidate above the 200 SMA on the H1 chart. Anyway, that moving average is still a solid dynamic resistance level.


GBPUSDH1.png




Daily chart's resistance levels: 1.4948 / 1.5087


Dailychart's support levels: 1.4820 / 1.4649


H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.4921 / 1.4984


H1 chart's support levels: 1.4842 / 1.4774






Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place short (sell) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.4842, take profit is at 1.4774, and stop loss is at 1.4909.


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EUR/NZD : analysis for March 27, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4278 in a high volume. The price found support around the level of 1.4280 (close to Fibonacci retracement 61.8%). We can observe potential re-testing of downward channel, which may lead to further upward movement. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement. The resistance level is seen around 1.4490.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4444


R2: 1.4486


R3: 1.4554


Support levels:


S1: 1.4308


S2: 1.4266


S3: 1.4198


Trading recommendations: Be careful when selling at this stage and watch for potential buying opportunities after a retracement.




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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 27, 2015

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Overview:


On February 5, temporary bullish breakout above 1.5220 (previous consolidation range) took place. Shortly after, an ascending channel was established at the price level of 1.5170-1.5200. This indicates bullish sentiment on the market.


A projected target for this bullish breakout has already been reached around 1.5550 where the previous daily bottoms were located (solid resistance).


Two weeks ago, the bearish breakdown of the lower limit of the depicted channel occurred enhancing the bearish side of the market and confirming the Flag pattern as bearish.


Significant bearish pressure was applied at the price level of 1.5200 (R2), then 1.4950 (R1 = broken weekly bottom).


Bearish persistence below 1.4950-1.5000 indicated a further bearish decline. Initial projection target for this bearish breakout was located at 1.4700.


Last week, GBP/USD bulls managed to defend the recent bottom at 1.4700. Evident bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4630 resulting in the formation of a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern.


Persistence above 1.4980-1.5000 (neck-line) is likely to extend the pattern's projection target at 1.5200.


Otherwise, the GBP/USD pair remains in the long-term downtrend as depicted on both the daily and weekly charts.


Trading recommendations:


Risky traders can wait for H4 bullish breakout above 1.5000 for a short-term BUY entry.


TP levels should be set at 1.5080, 1.5120 and finally at 1.5200. SL should be set as daily closure again below 1.4900.


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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for March 27, 2015

cadweek.png1427457060_caddaailu.png


Overview:


Since bulls have pushed further above the upper limit of both depicted bullish channels and the 79.6% Fibonacci level the market looks quite overbought.


However, bullish pressure is still expressed as the previous weekly closure came above 1.2550 (consolidation zone mid-line).


Successive lower highs were established within the wedge-pattern. However, the market expressed a bullish breakout above 1.2550-1.2600 shortly after.


Earlier this week, the market failed to persist above 1.2650 - 1.2680 (previous highs) resulting in the formation of a double-top pattern that waits for confirmation (daily closure below 1.2350).


The nearest support level to meet the USD/CAD pair is located around 1.2350 (lower limit of the confirmed wedge pattern) and 1.2300 (79.6% Fibonacci level that provided significant support for successive weeks on the daily chart).


On the long term, a projected target for the wedge pattern would be located near the price level of 1.3050 (the origin of the last bearish swing initiated on March 2009).


Last week, the resulting weekly candlestick came strongly negative as the price zone of 1.2680-1.2650 applied significant bearish pressure to retesting.


This indicates the bearish tendency of the market for the medium-term perspective. The nearest bearish targets would be located at 1.2150 and 1.2100.


Trading recommendations:


For risky traders, the current bearish pullback towards 1.2350 should be considered for a valid BUY entry with Stop Loss located slightly below 1.2300.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 27, 2015

gbpDAILY.png


The market has previously established a consolidation zone around 1.5000, which extended up to 1.5280. This was followed by a transient uptrend maintained within the depicted channel.


Bulls managed to push towards higher levels, including 1.5550 (just below the weekly supply level).


Significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.5550 (weekly supply level) resulting in the formation of multiple bearish engulfing daily candlesticks followed by a steep bearish decline towards 1.4700.


Moreover, demand levels located around 1.5200 and 1.5000 failed to provide enough support for the GBP/USD pair.


Last week, strong bullish rejection was expressed around 1.4700 (weekly low). A significant bullish weekly candlestick was expressed by the end of the week.


As anticipated, the price zone arond 1.4960-1.5000 was expected to provide significant supply for retesting. It corresponds to the upper limit of the long-term depicted channel, 38.2% Fibonacci level and a broken weekly demand established on January 2015.


Note that daily persistence above the price level of 1.5090 (50% Fibo level) indicates a quick bullish spike towards the price level of 1.5380 (projection target).


gbph4.png


Recently, GBP/USD bulls failed to defend their demand zone around 1.4960-1.5000, which was breached two weeks ago.


Evident bullish recovery was manifested on the H4 chart near the price levels around 1.4700 (weekly low).


Fixation above 1.4700-1.4720 enhanced a bullish side of the market allowing another bullish swing towards 1.4990 to take place.


Recently, the market has failed to trade above the price level of 1.4970 so far (multiple tops are being expressed around 1.4970-1.5000).


Conservative traders should note that the GBP/USD pair remains trapped between 1.4700 and 1.4970 until a breakout occurs in either direction (transient consolidation range should be expected).


However, a bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.5080-1.5100 (recent supply zone) may be watched for a quick intraday sell entry. Stop loss should be located above 1.5150.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 27, 2015

1427455641_eurmonth.png


The market has been pushed lower aggressively after breaking below major demand levels around 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms were previously established back in July 2012 and June 2010.


The EUR/USD pair has lost almost 1600 pips since the beginning of 2015. This week, the EUR/USD pair has already pushed slightly below monthly demand around 1.0550 (established on January 1997) where some bullish recovery is expected to exist.


The price action should be observed around the current monthly demand level looking for monthly closure below 1.0570 as theoretical long-term projection targets are seen near 0.9450.


1427455639_eurdaily.png


Obvious bearish breakdown of the weekly demand level at 1.1100 enhanced the bearish side of the market exposing lower targets.


Full projection targets for the Flag pattern were successfully reached around 1.0800 and 1.0500.


As anticipated, after such a long bearish rally (which started off 1.1300) bullish rejection existed around 1.0570 (MONTHLY DEMAND level).


Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been uptrending towards 1.1140.


Daily persistence above the price zone of 1.0850-1.0860 (recent DEMAND zone) enhances the probability of a quick corrective movement towards 1.1100 where a long-term sell position can be offered.


On the other hand, daily closure below 1.0850 (this week's key-level) invalidates the bullish correction, bringing the GBP/USD pair back towards 1.0650-1.0600 (WEEKLY LOW).


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The EUR/JPY pair dropped lower to 129.00 as seen here on the 4H chart. The pair seems to have its correction at these levels completed and a bullish bounce is expected from here. The fibonacci 0.786 support level of the recent rally (not shown here), might provide the required bounce at the current levels. Immediate support is seen at 128.00 followed by 127.00 and lower. Resistance is seen at 131.50 followed by 133.00 and higher respectively. Bulls are likely to remain in control untill prices stay above 128.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 128.00, target is open.


Good luck!




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Technical analysis of GBP/CHF for March 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The GBP/CHF pair has found support at the fibonacci level of 0.382 as expected and bounced higher. As seen on the 4H chart view, it has formed a tweezer bottom candlestick pattern, indicating a potential rally ahead. It is recommended to remain long with risk at 1.4100 levels for now. Immediate support is seen at the level of 1.4200 followed by 1.4000 and lower. Resistance is seen at 1.4480, followed by 1.4630, 1.4800, and higher respectively. Bulls should remain in control untill prices stay above 1.4200 for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, stop at 1.4100, target is open.


Good luck!




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Gold : analysis for March 27, 2015

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GOLDM1527.png


Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,195.56 in a high volume. Accoring to the daily time frame we can observe big weakness around our Fibonacci retracement 38.2%. The price rejected from our major Fibonacci retracement 38.2% ($1,205.00). According to the 15-min time frame, we can observe re-testing of a diagonal line. I have placed Fibonacci retracement to find potential support levels. I got Fibonacci retracement 38.2% at the price of $1,190.00. Anyway, If the price breaks the level of 1,220.00, we may see potential testing of the level of $1,244.00.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,215.81


R2: 1,221.91


R3: 1,231.73


Support levels :


S1: 1,196.21


S2: 1,190.15


S3: 1,180.33


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage since the price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2%




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Technical analysis of Silver for March 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver made another high at the level of $17.41 yesterday before pulling back to the area around $16.93. The metal might complete its first major upswing from a low of $15.30 and should be ready to produce a meaningful pullback towards $16.00. It is recommended to remain flat for now and look to buy at lower levels. Immediate support is seen at $16.80 followed by $16.00, $15.80, and lower. Resistance is seen at $17.50 followed by $18.50 and higher respectively. Bulls are poised to remain in control untill prices stay above $15.30 from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now. Look to buy around $16.00 levels.


Good luck!




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#USDX technical analysis for March 27, 2015

The Dollar index has reversed as expected. The price is back above 97.50. It is important for bulls to finish the week with closure above 97.50. I believe, we could have the next upward movement started that will bring the index back above 100.


usdx.jpg


Purple area= support


The Dollar index remains below the cloud but has made a V shaped reversal. The price is above the kijun-sen in the 4 hour chart. This bounce will be tested at 98, which is the first important resistance by the Ichimoku cloud. Breaking above 98-98.20 will be a bullish sign that will confirm the trend reversal from bearish to bullish.


usdxd.jpg


The weekly chart remains above the tenkan-sen and it is important for bulls to see this week close above 97.50 and as close to 98 as possible. Bulls still have more chances to reverse this market to new highs than bears to push the index to new lows. It is important to see how this week closes. Support isseen at 96-96.50. Breaking below this level will be a sell signal with a target at 92.


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Gold technical analysis for March 27, 2015

Gold price made a strong reversal yesterday and is breaking below short-term support at $1,200 now. Gold price reversed right from weekly kijun-sen resistance as expected. There is a strong probability that we might have started a new downward move that will bring gold price to new lows.


goldh4.jpg




Red line = support


Gold price is breaking below the short-term trend line support. The price is also breaking below the kijun-sen in the 4 hour chart. Next support is seen at $1,170 where cloud support is found. I believe, we are going to test that support. If we manage to hold above that level, we could see another upward bounce towards $1,230-40. If we break the cloud support, I expect new lows to be set.


goldd.jpg




The weekly chart remains fully bearish. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud. The weekly candle reached kijun-sen resistance and got rejected. The long tail above this week's candle is not a good sign for bulls. I give more chances to the longer-term bearish scenario with targets at $1,000-$900. Important weekly support is seen at $1,130.




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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for March 27, 2015

General overview for 27/03/2015 09:20 CET


As anticipated yesterday, the bottom for the wave (b) blue should be in place now and market is trying to rally upward in first possible wave 1. To confirm that scenario, the price has to break out above the level of 1.2540 and head up higher in impulsive way. Please notice that only a sustained breakout below the invalidation line at the level of 1.2388 is going to make this scenario invalidated.


Support/Resistance:


1.1933 - 1.1803 - Demand Zone


1.2352 - 1.2379 - Key Zone


1.2388 - Invalidation Level


1.2540 - Intraday Resistance


Trading recommendations:


There are two scenarios for mid-term trading decisions for daytraders and swingtraders:


-If the level of 1.2388 is violated to the downside, daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening sell orders on any rally up with SL above the level of 1.2540 and TP open for now


-If the level of 1.2540 is violated to the upside, daytraders and swingtraders should consider opening buy orders from any retrenchment level with SL below the level of 1.2388 and TP open for now.


usdcad_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of EUR/JPY for March 27, 2015

General overview for 27/03/2015 08:30 CET


There is one more sub-wave missing here in the hourly chart to complete the decline in the price and time wave c green of wave (b) blue. The market should finally bounce from the intraday support at the level of 129.28. If there is no reaction at this level, it might mean the alternative count is in play and the top for the level Y brown would be set at the level of 131.50.


Support/Resistance:


132.45 - 61%Fibo


132.13 - WR1


131.85 - Technical Resistance


131.15 - Intraday Resistance


131.39 - 50%Fibo


129.75 - Weekly Pivot


129.28 - Intraday Support


127.78 - WS1


Trading recommendations:


Short orders from yesterday were closed with the minimal lose after SL was hit (that's what it is for anyway) and with today's wave progression the outlook would be still more bearish than bullish. This might change only with the intraday resistance break out above the level of 131.15.


eurjpy_h1.jpg


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Technical analysis of Gold for March 27, 2015


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Gold hgot above the level of $1,220.00 yesterday before pulling back again. The metal still can be pushed through the level of $1,225.00 before a meaningful retracement. It is recommended to remain flat for now and wait for a pullback to materialize before initiating long positions. Immediate support is at $1,185.00 followed by $1,160.00/62.00 and lower, while resistance is seen at $1,223.00 followed by $1,285.00 and higher respectively. Bulls might still want to remain in control but further strengthening in the rally should be seen after a pullback towards $1,172.00.


Trading recommendations:


Remain flat for now.


Good luck!




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Daily analysis of major pairs for March 27, 2015

EUR/USD: This week, the market has enjoyed a measure of bullish run before the run was checked at the resistance line of 1.1050. Since then, there has been a bearish retracement of about 170 pips. However, the markit remains bullish unless the support line at 1.0800 is violated to the downside.


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USD/CHF: This pair experience a rally in the context of a downtrend now. It is called downtrend because the EMA 11 is still below the EMA 56; though the Williams' % range period 20 is reacting to the bullish attempt now. The only factor that can bring about a confirmed bullish bias is an exponential weakness in USD.


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GBP/USD: Generally, the cable has been moving sideways this week. As it was mentioned in the previous analysis, there is a distribution territory around 1.5000 and an accumulation territory around 1.4800. There must be a break above the distribution territory or a break below the accumulation territory before a strong directional movement can be seen.


1427438735_3.png


USD/JPY: Since touching the demand level at 118.50, the USD/JPY pair has bounced upwards. However, the upward bounce can be seen as a short-term rally in a context of a downtrend, which gives another good opportunity to go short. Unless the supply level at 121.00 is breached to the upside, the bearish outlook remains valid.


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EUR/JPY: This cross has become weaker. It has accumulated this week, almost giving up the little gain. The current price action testifies to the ongoing bears' domination on the market and a movement below the demand zone around 129.00 is likely to result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for March 27 - 2015

2015-03-27-EURNZD-4H.png


Technical summary:


The correction from 1.4495 became deeper than expected, but as long as support at 1.4230 protects the downside, we will expect powerful rally as a series of wave three's to unfold. The best fit is that a series of waves oneand two is unfolding and now a series of wave three should develop. A break above minor resistance at 1.4440 will confirm this count and call for a rally towards at least 1.4595 and possibly even higher.


Trading recommendation:


Our stop at 1.4375 was hit for a l+nice little profit. We will buy EUR again at 143.35 or upon a break above 143.70 (one order done cancels the other) stop will be placed at 1.4225


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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for March 27 - 2015

2015-03-27-EURJPY-4H.png


Technical summary:


The break below the support line from a low of 126.87 is the first sign of the final decline closer to 125.98. We still need a break below support at 129.26 and more importantly a break below support at 128.33 to confirm the decline closer to 125.98. As long as 129.26 protects the downside, this could be part of a correction, which a break above 130.30 will suggest. A break back above 130.30 is likely to destroy a possible impulsive look and call for a new test of important resistance at 131.74.


Trading recommendation:


We are short EUR from 129.85 and will move our stop lower to 130.40. If you are not short EUR yet, then sell a break below 129.47 with the same stop at 130.40.


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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for March 27, 2015

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When the European market opens, economic data on Italian Retail Sales m/m and German Import Prices m/m are expected to be released.The US will publish economic data about the revised UoM inflation expectations, revised UoM consumer sentiment, final GDP index q/q, final GDP q/q, and the Fed Chair Yellen's speech. So, EUR/USD will move low to medium volatility during this day.




TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:




Breakout BUY Level: 1.0936.




Strong Resistance:1.0930.




Original Resistance: 1.0919.




Inner Sell Area: 1.0908.




Target Inner Area: 1.0883.




Inner Buy Area: 1.0858.




Original Support: 1.0847.




Strong Support: 1.0836.




Breakout SELL Level: 1.0830.








Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 27, 2015

!USDJPY.jpg






In Asia, Japan is going to release data on the retail sales y/y, unemployment rate, national core CPI y/y, Tokyo core CPI y/y, and household spending y/y. The US is expected to publish economic data about revised UoM inflation expectations, revised UoM consumer sentiment, final GDP index q/q, final GDP q/q, and the Fed Chair Yellen's speech. So, there is a stromg probability that USD/JPY will move with low to medium volatility during the day.




TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:




Resistance. 3: 119.81.




Resistance. 2: 119.58.




Resistance. 1: 119.35.




Support. 1: 119.06.




Support. 2: 118.83.




Support. 3: 118.59.








Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of Gold for March 27, 2015

Geo-political tensions pushed traders towards safe heaven bet like Gold. Air strikes in Yemen by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies flared fears in the Middle East. The demand for gold resulted in a sudden spike in the metal price. The metal rallied towards $1,219.00, but it was unable to retain spikes. Finally, the metal managed to closed above the level of $1,200.00. The yellow metal extended its 7-day winning streak, making higher lows and higher highs. The metal is trading at a 2-week high. It took parallel support at $1,185.00 twice and changed its direction. Parallel resistance was faced at $1,222.00 and $1,220.00 50dsma. Today, the metal opened on a bearish note, trading around $1,200.00 at the Asian session. We recommended buying above 1195.00 on Wednesday and above $1,201.00 at yesterday's session. The trading pattern is framed between $1,222.00 and 1185.00. We will get clear direction, once price closes above or below either. Intraday resistance is seen at $1,207.00. Intraday view favours to bears. Support is found at $1,199.00, $1,194, and $1,189.00. We recommend selling below $1,199.00 with targets at $1,195.00, $1,189.00, and $1,186.00. The panic will be triggered below $1,185.00. Today, traders eye on the US GDP q/q and Yellen's speech.


Trade: buying above $1,207.00.


Selling below $1,199.00, panic below $1,185.00.


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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of EUR/USD for March 27, 2015

German consumers are becoming more optimistic. Following 9.7 points in March 2015, the score of 10.0 points are expected for April. But Greece concerns and the US stronger data pushed the pair towards 1.0856. The pair managed to close above 20Dsma at the yesterday's session as well. Today, the euro is trading higher against the greenback at the early Asian session. The intraday trend was turned to bearish based on hourly moving averages. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0950 and support is likely to be found at 1.0850 and 1.0830. At yesterday's session, we recommended fresh selling below 1.0940 with targets at 1.0900, 1.0880, 1.0770, 1.0750, and 1.0690; positional buying remained in play with sl 1.0830. The pair made a low at 1.0856. Even though, the pair breaches the intraday basis of 1.1045, it is unable to close above that level. A daily close below 1.0770 shows that bulls are losing grip. Bulls must try to close above 1.1045. Bears must try to close below 1.0768. In case the price closes above 1.1045, bulls can challenge 1.1170 and 1.1500. We are bullish for EUR against GBP for now, but not against USD. The levels above the closing basis can change the current picture.


Trade: selling below 1.0830


EURUSDH4.png


Key technical levels of the euro against USD/JPY/CAD/GBP, and AUD :


EUR/USD-Weekly mode favors buying with sl 1.0830. Intraday view remains favors bears.


EUR/JPY- Weekly mode favors turned to selling with sl 130.75. Intraday view remains favors bears.


EUR/CAD- Weekly mode favors turned to selling with sl 1.3675


EUR/GBP. Weekly mode favors buying with sl 0.7310 with a likely target at 0.7430 (buying above 0.7305 was advised on Monday) . Struggling at 50Dsma.


EUR/AUD. buying with sl 1.3820 target 1.4150


We will re-analyze if the weekly trend changes. The euro has been trading like a mirror image against JPY & CAD.


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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for March 27, 2015

1427404290_gbpusdh4.png

Overview :



  • Today, resistance and support have been set at the levels of 1.5093 and 1.4746 respectively. They are considered to be clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through. It should be noted that the daily pivot point is seen at the level of 1.4850 for that it will act as a psychological level. Therefore, the pivot lines work well on the sideways markets, as prices are most likely to be located between the resistance and support lines. Hence, according to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is going to move between 1.5078 and 1.4753. So, our forecast will be the following:

  • look for further downside below the prices of 1.4990 and 1.5030 with a target at 1.4850 and continue towards the level of 1.4750 in order to test weekly support on March 27 ,2015. On other hand, the stop loss should be placed at the 1.5105 price.


Intraday technical levels :


Date:26/03/2015


Pair:GBP/USD



  • R3: 1.5147

  • R2: 1.5071

  • R1: 1.4959

  • PP: 1.4883

  • S1: 1.4771

  • S2: 1.4695

  • S3: 1.4583


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 27, 2015

1427401635_nzdusdh1.png

Overview :



  • The NZD/USD pair is likely to continue straight from 0.7515. Support at 0.7515 coincides with ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 chart. Additionally, it is probably going to form a double bottom at the same level. Therefore, the kiwi shows signs of strength following the break through the highest levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550. So, it is going to be a good sign to buy above the support levels of 0.7515 and 0.7550 with the first target at 0.7603 in order to retest a weekly pivot point and further 0.9636 (it will act as strong resistance, it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that the level to take profit will coincide at 88.2% of Fibonacci at the same time frame). It should be noted that another resistance is set at the level of 0.7696, which represents the double bottom. However, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level at 0.7550, the market will be led to further decline to 0.7466 in order to indicate the bearish market on March 27, 2015.


Observations :



  • Stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

  • Risk to reward ratios are important and should be calculated.


Example:



  • A risk reward ratio of 1:1.5 is recommended:

  • Risk of 60 pips should make a profit of 90 pips. 60 pips * 1:1.5 = 90 pips.


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EUR/NZD analysis for March 26, 2015

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Overview:


In our last analysis, EUR/NZD was trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of 1.4491 in a high volume. The short-term trend changed from bearish to neutral. We can observe reaction from our Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the price of 1.4440. According to the M15 time frame, we have a buying climax in the background which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement. Anyway, if the price breaks the level of 1,4440 in a high volume, we may see potential testing of the level of 1.4550.


Daily Fibonacci pivot levels:


Resistance levels:


R1: 1.4444


R2: 1.4492


R3: 1.4569


Support levels:


S1: 1.4290


S2: 1.4242


S3: 1.4165


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying at this stage and watch for potential selling opportunities after a retracement.




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Gold analysis for March 26, 2015

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Overview :


Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. As we expected, the price has tested the level of $1,219.51 in an ultra high volume. According to the 4H time frame, we can observe demand in an ultra high volume (buying climax) which is a sign that buying looks risky. The price rejected from our major Fibonacci retracement 38.2% ($1,205.00). If the price breaks the level of %1,220.00, we may see potential testing of the level of $1,244.00. Support level is around the price of $1,200.00.


Daily Fibonacci pivot points:


Resistance levels :


R1: 1,199.94


R2: 1,202.29


R3: 1,207.33


Support levels :


S1: 1,189.09


S2: 1,185.97


S3: 1,180.93


Trading recommendations: Be careful when buying gold at this stage since the price rejected from our Fibonacci retracement 38.2%




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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for March 26, 2015

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Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.92 versus 97.23 early Wednesday) after a surprise on-month drop of 1.4% in US February durable goods orders (versus forecast +0.2%). USD/JPY is also weighed by the Japanese exports, flows to the safe-haven yen and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 13.36% to 15.44, S&P 500 closed 1.46% lower at 2,061.05 overnight) as the weak data on US durable goods raised concerns about the US economic growth. The USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.928% versus 1.878% late Tuesday) after a $35-billion sale of five-year treasury notes met lacklustre demand.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, 5-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.25. The pivot point stands at 119.35. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.30.


Resistance levels:

119.95

120.30

120.65


Support levels:

118.65

118.25

117.85


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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for March 26, 2015

USDCHFM30.png


Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.92 versus 97.23 early Wednesday) after a surprise on-month drop of 1.4% in US February durable goods orders (versus forecast +0.2%). The USD/CHF downside is limited by Swissie sales on the buoyant EUR/CHF cross, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention.


Technical comment:
The daily chart is still negative-biased as 5-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining. The MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, while the inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.


Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9480. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9440. The pivot point stands at 0.9635. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9720 and the second target at 0.9760.


Resistance levels:

0.9720

0.9760

0.9820


Support levels:

0.9480

0.9440

0.94


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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 26, 2015

NZDUSDM30.png


Fundamental overview:
NZD/USD is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by kiwi sales on the soft NZD/JPY cross amid increased investor risk aversion and kiwi sales on the buoyant EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD crosses. The NZD/USD losses are tempered by the negative dollar sentiment.


Technical comment:

The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, 5-day moving average is above 15-day moving average and is advancing, but stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels.


Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7530. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7455. The pivot point stands at 0.7675. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7750 and the second target at 0.78.


Resistance levels:

0.7750

0.78

0.7845

Support levels:


0.7530

0.7455

0.7405


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